NOAA report unable to pinpoint causes of the historic 2012 U.S. drought

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:27 PM GMT on April 12, 2013

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The extreme 2012 drought in the Central Great Plains of the U.S. was more intense than any drought since record keeping began in 1895, says a new NOAA assessment of the historic drought, released Thursday. However, the study was unable to pinpoint the cause of the drought. Other major global droughts in recent years have been linked to global warming and/or natural variation in patterns of sea surface temperatures, but these factors were seemingly not important in causing the drought of 2012, said the team of 19 atmospheric scientists, led by Martin Hoerling of the NOAA Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections Program (MAPP). Their study attributed the drought to a random natural variation in the jet stream, which caused it to become "stuck" far to the north in Canada. Since rain-bearing low pressure systems travel along the jet stream, the northwards displacement of the jet stream resulted in abnormally dry conditions over the Central U.S. "This is one of those events that comes along once every couple hundreds of years," said Hoerling.



Key findings of the report
The researchers focused on a six-state region--Wyoming, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Missouri and Iowa, and found that the amount of precipitation in 2012 was only 53% of the long-term average. This was the driest year since record keeping began in 1895, surpassing the previous record driest years of 1934 and 1936, during the great Dust Bowl drought.

The researchers called the 2012 drought a "flash drought"--it developed suddenly in May, and was unrelated to the 2011 drought over Texas and surrounding states. The 2011 drought had a separate and well-understood trigger (a change in the jet stream and storm tracks, due to a La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific.)

The 2012 drought was not predicted by long-range weather forecast models. The new report concluded that our ability to predict drought is limited, but some new experimental techniques could improve future drought forecasts. For example, NOAA's long-range GFDL forecast model and the European EUROSIP model correctly anticipated the summer 2012 heat and dryness over the Central U.S. in projections made as early as January 2012.


Figure 1. Drought-damaged corn in a field near Nickerson, Nebraska, Aug. 16, 2012. The great U.S. drought of 2012 was the most extensive U.S. drought since the 1930s Dust Bowl. Over a six-state region--Wyoming, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado, Missouri and Iowa--precipitation during 2012 was only 53% of the long-term average., making it the driest year since record keeping began in 1895. Damage from the 2012 drought is at least $35 billion, and probably much higher. The associated heat wave killed 123 people, and brought the U.S. its second hottest summer on record. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik)

Criticism of the report
Dr. Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research was critical of the report's conclusions. In comments posted in Joe Romm's blog at climateprogress.org, Dr. Trenberth said that the study failed to "say anything about the observed soil moisture conditions, snow cover, and snow pack during the winter prior to the event in spite of the fact that snow pack was at record low levels in the winter and spring" and "no attempt was made to include soil moisture, snow cover anomalies, or vegetation health" in the climate model runs performed.

I would have liked to have seen the paper mention the growing body of research that has linked unusually early May snow melt in the Northern Hemisphere and Arctic sea ice loss in recent years to unusual summertime jet stream patterns, like the jet stream pattern observed during 2012. A March 2013 paper by scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany found that under special conditions, the atmosphere can start to resonate like a bell. This causes the jet stream pattern to freeze in place and amplify, leading to months-long periods of weather extremes. They showed that warming of the Arctic due to human-caused climate change might be responsible for this resonance phenomenon, which became twice as common during 2001 - 2012 compared to the previous 22 years. One of the more extreme examples of this resonance occurred during the summer of 2012, and could have been the cause of the 2012 drought.

Other blogs on the report
Yes, Climate Change Is Worsening U.S. Drought — NOAA Report Needlessly Confuses The Issue by Joe Romm at climateprogress.org

Global Warming Not Significant in 2012 Drought: Report by Andrew Freedman of climatecentral.org

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

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498. AussieStorm
1:17 PM GMT on April 14, 2013
Developing hook echo???

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
497. AussieStorm
12:54 PM GMT on April 14, 2013
Is this a wall cloud??

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
496. Grothar
12:25 PM GMT on April 14, 2013
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27074
495. MAweatherboy1
12:14 PM GMT on April 14, 2013


14/1130 UTC 17.7S 59.9E T5.0/5.0 IMELDA -- Southwest Indian
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7995
494. VR46L
12:06 PM GMT on April 14, 2013
Good Morning Folks

LSU northern Gulf Water vapour

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6968
493. LargoFl
11:39 AM GMT on April 14, 2013
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
WESTERN EAST FELICIANA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...JACKSON...CLINTON...
POINTE COUPEE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NEW ROADS...
WEST FELICIANA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ST. FRANCISVILLE...

* UNTIL 745 AM CDT

* AT 448 AM CDT...A LARGE AREA ACROSS SOUTHERN POINTE COUPEE AND
SOUTHERN WEST FELICIANA PARISHES HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED UP TO 3 TO
4 INCHES OF RAIN. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
INDICATED CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FLASH
FLOODING OVER THE WARNED AREA.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WAKEFIELD...SPILLMAN...NORWOOD...LETTSWORTH AN
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41585
492. LargoFl
11:38 AM GMT on April 14, 2013
TORNADO WARNING
LAC075-141200-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0033.130414T1111Z-130414T1200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
611 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL PLAQUEMINES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF PORT SULPHUR...

* UNTIL 700 AM CDT

* AT 607 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR MYRTLE
GROVE...OR 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF PORT SULPHUR...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
POINTE A LA HACHE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41585
491. yonzabam
11:36 AM GMT on April 14, 2013
Climate change to devastate global agriculture, doubling the cost of basic foods.

Link
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490. LargoFl
11:20 AM GMT on April 14, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41585
489. GeoffreyWPB
11:19 AM GMT on April 14, 2013
101 years ago today...

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11512
488. LargoFl
11:17 AM GMT on April 14, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41585
487. LargoFl
11:14 AM GMT on April 14, 2013
looks like this is the weather story today,stay safe folks..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41585
486. MAweatherboy1
11:13 AM GMT on April 14, 2013
New warning on that storm:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
611 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL PLAQUEMINES PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF PORT SULPHUR...

* UNTIL 700 AM CDT

* AT 607 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR MYRTLE
GROVE...OR 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF PORT SULPHUR...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
POINTE A LA HACHE

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT
TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE.

PLEASE FOLLOW OUR OFFICE ON BOTH FACEBOOK AND TWITTER FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON SEVERE WEATHER AND TO RELAY WEATHER REPORTS AND
PHOTOS.

&&

LAT...LON 2950 8998 2959 8997 2968 9002 2976 8971
2968 8962 2964 8951 2963 8951 2965 8959
2965 8963 2961 8962 2962 8968 2959 8971
2951 8964 2946 8952 2944 8955
TIME...MOT...LOC 1110Z 273DEG 20KT 2959 8992

$$
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7995
485. LargoFl
11:11 AM GMT on April 14, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41585
484. LargoFl
11:09 AM GMT on April 14, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41585
483. LargoFl
11:07 AM GMT on April 14, 2013
north gulf states stay alert to warnings today............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41585
482. MAweatherboy1
11:01 AM GMT on April 14, 2013
This looks like a very dangerous storm, there may actually be something on the ground with this:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7995
481. MAweatherboy1
10:59 AM GMT on April 14, 2013
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
549 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

LAC051-075-141115-
/O.CON.KLIX.TO.W.0032.000000T0000Z-130414T1115Z/
JEFFERSON LA-PLAQUEMINES LA-
549 AM CDT SUN APR 14 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 AM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN PLAQUEMINES AND SOUTHERN JEFFERSON PARISHES...

AT 544 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MYRTLE GROVE...OR 16 MILES
EAST OF CUT OFF...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE
REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE INDICATED PARISHES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER
PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE
BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE
BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

PLEASE FOLLOW OUR OFFICE ON BOTH FACEBOOK AND TWITTER FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON SEVERE WEATHER AND TO RELAY WEATHER REPORTS AND
PHOTOS.

&&

LAT...LON 2946 9005 2947 9013 2949 9015 2954 9017
2955 9019 2956 9019 2957 9016 2961 9016
2986 8991 2980 8987 2980 8983 2971 8972
2945 9004
TIME...MOT...LOC 1049Z 204DEG 14KT 2957 9007
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7995
480. LargoFl
10:42 AM GMT on April 14, 2013
Nam for around 2 pm today..................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41585
479. LargoFl
10:40 AM GMT on April 14, 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR

* PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...LOWER
BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN AND UPPER MOBILE. IN
NORTHWEST FLORIDA...COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA AND
INLAND SANTA ROSA.

* THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON

* A GENERAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES OF ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

* FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE GIVEN RECENT WET GROUNDS AND THE FACT
THAT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER A SHORT DURATION OF
TIME. SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS MAY OVERFLOW THEIR BANKS
TEMPORARILY. URBAN FLOODING ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR FROM MOBILE TO
PENSACOLA TO CRESTVIEW IS ALSO A PRIMARY CONCERN.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41585
478. LargoFl
10:38 AM GMT on April 14, 2013
Good Morning folks!..kinda breezy here this morning on the gulf coast,clouds are flying northward..hope we here by my area get some showers today,getting dry here once again..pcola you be careful today and listen to your warnings....have a great day everyone!
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41585
477. Tropicsweatherpr
10:35 AM GMT on April 14, 2013
Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

Some scattered showers will move thru PR and adjacent islands today but by midweek,a trough will bring deep moisture. Fingers crossed on that as we need rainfall as there is a deficit in precipitation so far this year.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
541 AM AST SUN APR 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL
HOLD UNTIL MONDAY. RIDGING ALOFT WILL DIMINISH AS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC BETWEEN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO POOL
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLES BY MIDWEEK. A LOW LEVEL
PERTURBATION EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS WILL BRING CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION
OVER THE USVI AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING. THE GPS MET
DATA LOCATED IN ST. CROIX MEASURED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
AROUND 1.45 INCHES AND RISING. THE EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH THIS LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION WESTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
AFFECTING MOST OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY.

MOSTLY SHALLOW CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND LIMIT THE VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SHOWERS. HOWEVER...MODERATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION
IS POSSIBLE ONLY IN ISOLATED AREAS OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO DUE TO
STRONG SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE ERODES/WEAKENS...SUBSIDENCE CAP IS TO CRUMBLE
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGESTS THAT A MID TO
UPPER TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC BY MIDWEEK.
THIS TROUGH PATTERN WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE...ALLOWING
DEEPER MOISTURE TO POOL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL...WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ACTIVE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 14/18Z. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED BETWEEN FROM 14/18Z THROUGH 14/22Z OVER TJMZ...AND
TJBQ IN SHRA. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-6 FT ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST IN
THE MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 85 74 / 30 30 30 20
STT 85 77 85 77 / 40 40 40 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14755
476. MAweatherboy1
10:33 AM GMT on April 14, 2013
Good morning. The SPC has a very large threat area outlined for Wednesday, looks like that will be the biggest severe weather day this week.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7995
475. LargoFl
10:05 AM GMT on April 14, 2013
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
525 AM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-142130-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
525 AM EDT SUN APR 14 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TODAY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST
COVERAGE WILL BE NORTH OF TAMPA BAY ACROSS THE NATURE COAST. SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE GREATEST HAZARD BEING
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS.

...DENSE FOG/SMOKE IMPACT...
HIGH DEW POINTS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT.
VISIBILITY IN DENSE PATCHES COULD FALL BELOW 1 MILE. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41585
474. LargoFl
9:57 AM GMT on April 14, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41585
473. Civicane49
9:35 AM GMT on April 14, 2013
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
472. Civicane49
9:18 AM GMT on April 14, 2013
Heavy rains have diminished around Hawaii. Flash flood watch would end early tomorrow morning.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
471. Civicane49
7:34 AM GMT on April 14, 2013
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
470. Civicane49
7:24 AM GMT on April 14, 2013
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
469. Civicane49
7:22 AM GMT on April 14, 2013
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
468. Civicane49
7:16 AM GMT on April 14, 2013
SPC issued a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for portions of northeastern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas for today. Hail and damaging wind appears to be the greatest threat.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
467. Civicane49
7:08 AM GMT on April 14, 2013
Forecast track of Imelda by JTWC:

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
466. Civicane49
7:04 AM GMT on April 14, 2013
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 APR 2013 Time : 060000 UTC
Lat : 17:15:00 S Lon : 59:10:48 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 979.4mb/ 74.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.4 3.6

Center Temp : -43.3C Cloud Region Temp : -70.1C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 67km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 20.4 degrees



Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
465. Civicane49
6:46 AM GMT on April 14, 2013
Imelda has redeveloped an eye.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
464. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
6:37 AM GMT on April 14, 2013
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #34
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE IMELDA (10-20122013)
10:00 AM RET April 14 2013
======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Imelda (980 hPa) located at 17.2S 59.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as quasi stationary.

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 55 NM in the northwestern quadrant, and up to 60 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
===================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the northwestern quadrant, up to 80 NM in the southeastern quadrant, and up to 90 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
90 NM radius from the center, extending up to 95 NM in the northwestern quadrant, up to 140 NM in the southeastern quadrant, and up to 145 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 18.1S 60.3E - 65 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
24 HRS: 19.5S 61.5E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 21.7S 62.9E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée
72 HRS: 23.2S 61.0E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)

Additional Information
=========================
Imelda has very slowly drifted south-eastwards since yesterday afternoon but is currently quasi stationary. System keeps on showing intensification signs. The system lies under an upper tropospheric ridge with weak vertical wind shear and good upper level divergence mainly polewards (cf. water vapor imagery).

For the next 48 hours system is expected to track globally south-eastwards under the steering influence of the mid-level ridge located to its northeast. On this track, upper levels conditions should remain favorable today before an increase of the vertical wind shear later tonight. However as the shear is on the same direction of the expected track, the negative effect could be somewhat limited initially. Consequently an intensification up to the tropical cyclone status is likely.

On and after Monday, the vertical wind shear is forecast to increase sharply ahead an upper levels trough and system should weaken.

On and after Tuesday, the filling up system is expected to track globally westwards steered by the trade-winds flow.

Given the current trend in intensity, all interests in the Mascaregnes Islands should monitor the progress of this system ...particularly interests in Rodrigues Island ... which is currently affected by the first outer active bands located in the southeastern sector of the system.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46525
463. allancalderini
6:01 AM GMT on April 14, 2013
Quoting Astrometeor:
Ah, finally, got done with what I wanted to do tonight. Good night WU.
Good night Astro.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 4467
462. Civicane49
5:59 AM GMT on April 14, 2013
More rain on the way.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
461. Astrometeor
5:46 AM GMT on April 14, 2013
Ah, finally, got done with what I wanted to do tonight. Good night WU.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10445
460. Tazmanian
5:08 AM GMT on April 14, 2013
it looks vary likey we could see other winter storm name by TWC but the ? is could we get too the Z storm for winter names
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115435
459. VR46L
4:59 AM GMT on April 14, 2013
In for a bit of a hammering today ... Met eireann warning Strong to gale force south to southwest winds of 50 to 60 km/h, with occasional gusts of 90 to 110 km/hr. Winds will be strongest in western coastal areas.


And Imagery of the storm Takes a minute to load
24 hrs in the life of a North Atlantic Low
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6968
458. Civicane49
4:52 AM GMT on April 14, 2013
The cold front is currently just off the northwest coast of Kauai based on the latest surface analysis and satellite imagery.

Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
457. Civicane49
4:42 AM GMT on April 14, 2013
So far, the island of Oahu has dodged most of the rain throughout the day. In fact, none of the areas on that island have received over half an inch of rain over the past 24 hours as of the 5:45 pm HST update. The highest rainfall on Hawaii today is 1.60 inches of rain on Mt. Waialeale in Kauai. The unsettled weather is forecast to persist through tomorrow as the cold front advances through the state, then stall, and later weaken. Expect normal weather to return by the middle of next week.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
456. VR46L
4:39 AM GMT on April 14, 2013
Quoting Grothar:


That looks like a Norwegian weather site. Where did you find it?


Metro France/ Its actually French ... but I adore the Norwegian and Icelandic sites too ... Thank God for Google Translator ...LOL


Sorry for the delay in replying
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6968
455. nymore
4:14 AM GMT on April 14, 2013
Quoting Astrometeor:


I thought I was the only one who knew about that site. They are very good IMO.
If they are good enough I do not use it, I just step outside. It is cloudy tonight though so will use the cam
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2260
454. Astrometeor
4:13 AM GMT on April 14, 2013
Quoting nymore:
For those who would like to watch the Aurora tonight here is a live cam in Canada. It should start in about 45 minutes. The Aurora oval does not seem as strong as was forecast but this cam near Yellowknife I believe should still give a good show.
Aurora Cam


I thought I was the only one who knew about that site. They are very good IMO.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10445
453. nymore
4:00 AM GMT on April 14, 2013
For those who would like to watch the Aurora tonight here is a live cam in Canada. It should start in about 45 minutes. The Aurora oval does not seem as strong as was forecast but this cam near Yellowknife I believe should still give a good show.
Aurora Cam
Member Since: July 6, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 2260
452. HurrMichaelOrl
3:59 AM GMT on April 14, 2013
Quoting TAMPASHIELD:
Hoping it doesn't rain tomorrow.



We sure could use the rain.
Member Since: July 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1161
451. trHUrrIXC5MMX
3:53 AM GMT on April 14, 2013
Quoting Astrometeor:


That's not good. The NWS has already threatened them with a potential (10% chance) of a record flood and a 45% chance of a disastrous flood. More snow just worsens the situation. I heard that they have been filling sand bags for a couple of weeks now. The flood is supposed to start at some point in the month of April. Oh, wait, it is April. Darn...


this could end up in disaster...
another storm is possible next week...!
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Bismack, ND... back to the snow dump


That's not good. The NWS has already threatened them with a potential (10% chance) of a record flood and a 45% chance of a disastrous flood. More snow just worsens the situation. I heard that they have been filling sand bags for a couple of weeks now. The flood is supposed to start at some point in the month of April. Oh, wait, it is April. Darn...
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10445
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
On another note, if I've seemed a little rude on here lately, guys, it's because the past few days haven't been the greatest for me. My great-grandma died Thursday morning, and even though she's not immediate family, I was really, really close to her and haven't slept much since.



sorry to hear it, hope you feel better, I'm sure its rough for your family too
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Bismarck, ND... back to the snow dump
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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