One-inch hail at 18°F in NE; record snows in SD

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:54 PM GMT on April 10, 2013

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It's crazy spring weather at its finest in the Midwest U.S., where a powerful April storm system is bringing heavy snow, large hail, strong winds, freezing rain, heavy rain, and a remarkable temperature contrast on either side of its cold front. Abilene, Texas reached 93° Tuesday between 4 - 5 pm, and by 12:30 a.m Wednesday, it was snowing and 37°. Texas had an extreme temperature range state-wide on Tuesday of at least 86°: from 108° in Laredo, to 22° in Dalhart. A damaging hail storm moved though the west side of Omaha, Nebraska on Tuesday night, bringing hail up to 2" inches in diameter with damage to cars, skylights, roofs and windshields, according to the Omaha World-Herald. The Grand Island, NE airport had hail up to nickel size while the temperature was 27°F, and one location nearby had 1" sized hail with a surface temperature of just 18°F. It is very rare to see large hail with surface temperatures this cold; the unusual weather was made possible by elevated thunderstorms along a front aloft, above a shallow surface-based cold layer. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a post, Incredible Temperature Gradient in Southern/Central Plains, discussing the remarkable contrast between the weather on either side of the cold front. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is predicting a "Slight" chance of severe weather today through Friday along the storm's cold front, as it sweeps eastwards towards the East Coast.

A remarkable 20" of snow piled up in Rapid City, SD on Tuesday--the city's snowiest day of all-time. The previous one-day record was 18", set on April 22, 2001. The snow continues to fall in the city, with a storm-total accumulation of 25" as of 8 am CDT. The storm has knocked out power to thousands in the Sioux Fall, SD area, and I-90 is closed between Rapid City and Mitchell this morning. However, the Rapid City area is under the highest level of drought, exceptional, so the record snow storm is not entirely unwelcome. Widespread areas of one to two inches of precipitation have fallen over some of the hardest-hit drought areas of South Dakota, Oklahoma, and Nebraska this week, making the week one of the biggest for Midwest drought reduction experienced in the past year.

I'll have a new post late this morning on the latest hurricane season forecasts.

Jeff Masters

Ice Storm (chisox)
Unhappy grass
Ice Storm
Hail (hodgesmark)
Rain earlier in the day, then snow and large hail similar to a thunderstorm. Larger stones are a little over 1 inch.
Hail

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66. LargoFl
3:03 PM GMT on April 10, 2013
Pcola and Jedkins..Stay Alert thursday.............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42271
65. FatPenguin
3:02 PM GMT on April 10, 2013
Wow! on the temperature variance in Texas.

56 degree swing in Abilene in less than 12 hrs. That has to be close to a record without Chinook winds as a driving factor?
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 321
64. LargoFl
3:01 PM GMT on April 10, 2013
Gee look at friday per GFS..................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42271
63. LargoFl
3:00 PM GMT on April 10, 2013
VALID 12Z WED APR 10 2013 - 12Z FRI APR 12 2013

...A ROBUST SPRING STORM WILL POSE A THREAT FOR MULTIPLE HAZARDS
AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD THROUGH THE NATION...

ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD AS A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT PROGRESS
FURTHER EASTWARD ACROSS THE NATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AN
ORGANIZED AREA OF MODERATE SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE
NORTHWEST OF A SURFACE LOW INTENSIFYING ALONG THE FRONT WHILE THE
LOW TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES...RESULTING IN SOME LATE SEASON SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THE INTENSIFYING
SURFACE LOW AND OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
STATES. THIS BOUNDARY COULD ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR A
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES...WHERE
WARM AIR WILL BE OVERRUNNING SUB-FREEZING AIR AT THE SURFACE.

MEANWHILE...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THE POTENT COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TOWARDS THE APPALACHIANS. AN
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE SURGING OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...COMBINED
WITH STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT...WILL HELP FIRE UP AN ORGANIZED LINE
OF CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND EVEN TORNADOES.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NATION...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN AHEAD OF
THE ROBUST STORM EXITING THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER
DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. OUT WEST...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
COAST WILL BRING STEADY RAINS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INLAND AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE COUNTRY.


GERHARDT
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42271
62. bappit
2:58 PM GMT on April 10, 2013
The cold front must be slowing down. To think people were mentioning a Pacific front and dry line a couple of days ago. The cold air out ran everything.

Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6158
61. FunnelVortex
2:58 PM GMT on April 10, 2013
EYE, EYE, EYE!

Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2893
60. washingtonian115
2:56 PM GMT on April 10, 2013
The pattern that we saw in March is usually followed by several hurricane land falls duriing summer and early fall.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17850
59. hydrus
2:51 PM GMT on April 10, 2013
An interesting bit about gravitational lensing observed by Kepler Satellite..Link
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22724
58. VR46L
2:51 PM GMT on April 10, 2013
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6998
57. FunnelVortex
2:51 PM GMT on April 10, 2013
Locally heavy snow for Northwestern Wisconsin.
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2893
56. muddertracker
2:47 PM GMT on April 10, 2013
Actually, not as low as I thought.

Link

Jet stream 10 day.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2351
55. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:46 PM GMT on April 10, 2013
Three of Levi's four analogue years for this upcoming season were listed in CSU's report: 1952, 1966, and 1996.

He used 2005 as an analogue, CSU used 2004.

Good job.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32870
54. louisianaboy444
2:46 PM GMT on April 10, 2013
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Cold for hail? Isn't hail frozen, and therefore <32*F? :P

But all kidding aside, this storm has had a very unusual setup for sure. I've never seen anything quite like it!


From -5 C to 0 C or just below the freezing mark Ice is still very sticky and it makes it easy to Aggregate ice crystals together in the cloud along with super-cooled water to form larger hail
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1352
53. dabirds
2:44 PM GMT on April 10, 2013
Top of WU page tells me Spfld, IL only mid 50s? Their paper's site says 69, like the 70 for StL & me, should be in same (sticky/soupy) airmass as us. Guess someones PWS on the fritz.

Looking at a couple of maps, sure is a bend to the E in the front line just above me, does this increase/decrease our severe wthr chances?
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 789
52. muddertracker
2:43 PM GMT on April 10, 2013
Quoting washingtonian115:
Hypuweather(accuweather) usually releases their forecast around this time.Anyone when they will release theirs?.


40, 35, 20?
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2351
51. Tazmanian
2:43 PM GMT on April 10, 2013
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 AM CDT WED APR 10 2013

VALID 131200Z - 181200Z

...DISCUSSION...
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF NEGLIGIBLE SEVERE PROBABILITIES...LOW-END
SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST
STATES ON D5-6 IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ENCOUNTERING AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT. THE
ECMWF/CMC ARE CONSISTENTLY FASTER/WEAKER THAN THE GFS...RESULTING IN
MORE SUBDUED INLAND PENETRATION OF A GULF AIR MASS AND MODEST
KINEMATIC FIELDS.

MORE PROMINENT SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL PROBABLY BE REALIZED TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS MODERATELY HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WRN CONUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK.
THIS WOULD SETUP RETURN FLOW FROM THE WRN GULF INTO THE CNTRL

CONUS...S OF A RELATIVELY TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON D1-2 IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS DETRIMENTAL TO DRYING ACROSS THE GULF BASIN AS THE MOST
RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE HAD...WHICH POTENTIALLY WILL YIELD A MORE
STRONGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THE WRN CONUS TROUGH WITH IMMENSE SPREAD IN BOTH
AMPLITUDE AND TIMING...WHICH WILL CERTAINLY EFFECT DOWNSTREAM
CYCLOGENESIS AND FRONTAL POSITIONS. AS SUCH...CONSIDERING ANY
HIGHLIGHT FOR A SPECIFIC AREA/DAY WITH 30 PERCENT OR GREATER SEVERE
PROBABILITIES IS PREMATURE ATTM.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
Quoting aquak9:


no, we're not allowed to funny here anymore. No humor allowed.
The humor here has help me through some bad days. I hope the good stuff remains.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22724
The jet stream is pretty low right now. With 50+ days until the season officially starts, we'll have to see what it does.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2351
Hypuweather(accuweather) usually releases their forecast around this time.Anyone when they will release theirs?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17850

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
let's hope not!
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2351
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Cold for hail? Isn't hail frozen, and therefore <32*F? :P

But all kidding aside, this storm has had a very unusual setup for sure. I've never seen anything quite like it!

Wouldn't it be called Ice pellets?

Did TWC name the snow maker currently going on over there?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
Quoting muddertracker:


Is that Justin Timberlake's long lost father?

Could be James Holmes Father... the Aurora shooting.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
Pretty wild Jeff!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:


don't put to much rum ^^^^^ Video in the blue link.


Is that Justin Timberlake's long lost father?
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2351
Quoting bappit:
That's cold for hail!

Cold for hail? Isn't hail frozen, and therefore <32*F? :P

But all kidding aside, this storm has had a very unusual setup for sure. I've never seen anything quite like it!
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709
Quoting ncstorm:


Purpledrank, your avatar is somewhat scary..LOL..


You think his avatar is scary?

Be glad you don't know who he REALLY is.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I put him on ignore (sorry) because the flashing is just obnoxious.

Edit: 4chan, forerunners of Anonymous, posted flashing gifs on epilepsy forums ... for the lulz.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6158
Quoting PurpleDrank:
For anyone interested, here is the twitter feed for NHC director Rick Knabb:

Dr Knabb Twitter


Purpledrank, your avatar is somewhat scary..LOL..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
For anyone interested, here is the twitter feed for NHC director Rick Knabb:

Dr Knabb Twitter
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:
Looks like an El Pina Colada of a season is coming


don't put to much rum ^^^^^ Video in the blue link.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
Quoting muddertracker:


I prefer Cangialosi and his full box of crayons.
Lol.I can't wait to see all those familiar colors again.Stewart was more laid back which is why I guessed people liked him so much and he wasn't that conservative.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17850
Quoting washingtonian115:
Ha ha but the funnt thing about these storms is that when they did look good they didn't have a center and were basically open waves,and they always waited until the last minute to get their act together.

BTW is Stewart going to be the main man again this year in terms of peoples favorite?.


He is the best at NHC,but other forecasters are very also very good such as the three B's Beven,Brown,Blake.
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Looks like an El Pina Colada of a season is coming
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9686
Thanks for the blog update Dr. Masters..
I hope your trip to Arizona went well..
Good to hear of the upcoming blog on this hurricaine season..
Thanks again
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Ha ha but the funnt thing about these storms is that when they did look good they didn't have a center and were basically open waves,and they always waited until the last minute to get their act together.

BTW is Stewart going to be the main man again this year in terms of peoples favorite?.


I prefer Cangialosi and his full box of crayons.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2351
Quoting muddertracker:
...and it begins. I think this is going to be a "banter" year for the blog. Maybe even as funny as 2011...or as disturbing as 2009? We shall see...


maybe its sort of like an el nino/la nina cycle?

funny, disturbing, disturbing, funny, disturbing, calm, etc.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I am excited to hear of a new hurricane season forecast. I have made some predictions of my own on my blog. I am interested to see how the estimates compare.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:


makes for an interesting blog discussion..I enjoy it myself seeing the comments
Ha ha but the funnt thing about these storms is that when they did look good they didn't have a center and were basically open waves,and they always waited until the last minute to get their act together.

BTW is Stewart going to be the main man again this year in terms of peoples favorite?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17850
Quoting aquak9:


no, we're not allowed to funny here anymore. No humor allowed.
We need humor here!.If the blog gets to strict it'll get boring.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17850
Texas had an extreme temperature range state-wide on Tuesday of at least 86°: from 108° in Laredo, to 22° in Dalhart.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9686
Quoting aquak9:


no, we're not allowed to funny here anymore. No humor allowed.


...you just have to sneak in a quick quip here are there..:) It can be done! The "blog police" can be outsmarted! (or at least out punctuated)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2351
Quoting SLU:
CSU's forecast is out. It's a surprising 18-9-4!

Link


Thanks.Doc

However is something close to my prediction 19-12-5; the number of majors will be related with the vertical instability and how strong will be trade winds and wind shear in the atlantic and carribean, that seem like will be below of last year because the Enso predicting neutral to La Nina event for summner- fall.
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2169
Quoting washingtonian115:
I hope we don't have any more Ernesto's and Issac's for a while..lord have mercy on our souls.


makes for an interesting blog discussion..I enjoy it myself seeing the comments
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting muddertracker:
...and it begins. I think this is going to be a "banter" year for the blog. Maybe even as funny as 2011...or as disturbing as 2009? We shall see...


no, we're not allowed to funny here anymore. No humor allowed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I hope we don't have any more Ernesto's and Issac's for a while..lord have mercy on our souls.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17850
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes! a hurricanes blog later on thanks Doc.


Cant wait!!
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...and it begins. I think this is going to be a "banter" year for the blog. Maybe even as funny as 2011...or as disturbing as 2009? We shall see...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2351
Thanks Doc !!!
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6998
Quoting Tazmanian:



oh well you shut it all ready

why should i? You showed what an epac "system" 384hrs out??? Your desperate to track a Hurricane. Admit it. I am but It's not time yet to just enjoy your time and chillax. We might be busy this year tracking multiple systems.

CSU 18 - 9 Hurricanes - 4 Major Hurricanes = BUSY YES???
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15979
Looks to me like CSU is wishcasting :)

/s

I have 14-18, 4-8, and 1-3... they are higher than me.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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