Europe expected to see a large increase in Hurricane Sandy-like hybrid storms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:18 PM GMT on April 08, 2013

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Watch out, Europe. Dangerous part-hurricane, part extratropical hybrid storms like Hurricane Sandy of 2012 are expected to be an increasing threat for Western Europe by the end of the century due to global warming, said a team of scientists led by Reindert J. Haarsma of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute. In a paper called "More hurricanes to hit Western Europe due to global warming", published in April 2013 in Geophysical Research Letters, the researchers describe the results from runs of a high-resolution (25 km grid spacing) climate model based on the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) numerical weather prediction model. The model predicts that the breeding ground for Atlantic hurricanes will shift approximately 700 miles eastwards as the oceans warm this century. Hurricanes which form farther to the east can spend more time over warm tropical waters before turning north and northeast towards Europe, increasing the odds that these storms will have hurricane-force winds upon arrival in Europe. The model showed that wind shear will change little in the region over the coming decades, resulting in a large increase in storms with hurricane-force winds affecting Western Europe. Most of the these storms will not be tropical hurricanes upon arrival in Europe, but will be former hurricanes that have transitioned to extratropical storms. However, as we saw with Hurricane Sandy of 2012, these hybrid storms can be extremely dangerous. Summed over Norway, the North Sea, and the Gulf of Biscay, the model found that the number of hurricane-force storms in August - October increased from 2 to 13 over the 21st century, with almost all future West European hurricane-force storms predicted to originate as hurricanes or tropical storms in the tropics by 2100. The researchers conclude that "tropical cyclones will increase the probability of present-day extreme events over the North Sea and the Gulf of Biscay with a factor of 5 and 25 respectively, with far reaching consequences especially for coastal safety."


Figure 1. Hurricane Sandy at 10:10 am EDT October 28, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Europe's hurricane history
Only once since accurate records began in 1851 has an actual hurricane with full tropical characteristics hit Europe. This happened on September 16, 1961, when Category 1 Hurricane Debbie hit northwestern Ireland. Wind gusts reached 106 mph at Ballykelly and 104 mph at Tiree and Snaefill, and coastal radio stations reported the airwaves were jammed with calls for help from small ships and fishing craft. Eleven people were killed and 50 injured in the storm. The only other tropical cyclone recorded to have hit Europe since 1851 was Hurricane Vince of 2005, which hit southern Spain as a tropical depression on October 11, 2005. Historical documents also suggest a hurricane hit Spain on October 29, 1842.


Figure 2. Hurricane Debbie of 1961 was the only fully tropical hurricane ever recorded to hit Europe.

Britain's history of ex-hurricane strikes
Hurricanes that transition to powerful extratropical storms hit the British Isles several times per decade, on average. In October 2014, after battering Bermuda, the remnants of Hurricane Gonzalo affected Europe as a powerful extratropical storm, bringing strong winds, torrential rain, and heavy snowfall in western, central, and southern portions of the continent. Three people were killed, and damages in Netherlands, Germany, and Slovenia were estimated at $42 million. In 2011, Hurricane Katia brushed by Newfoundland, made the transition from a tropical system to a powerful extratropical storm, and maintained strong winds of 50 - 65 mph as it crossed the Atlantic. Ex-Katia hit northern Scotland on September 12, 2011. Glen Ogle, Scotland, at an elevation of 1500 feet (546 meters), received sustained winds of 60 mph, gusting to 86 mph. Cairngorm, in the Scottish Highlands at an elevation of 4085 feet, reported sustained winds of 67 mph. With the trees in full leaf, tree damage was much higher than a winter or springtime storm of similar ferocity would have caused. One person was killed by a falling tree, and heavy tree damage and numerous power failures were reported throughout Britain. Other gusts experienced in Britain included 76 mph at Edinburgh Blackford Hill, 75 mph at Capel Curig in Wales, 72 mph at Glasgow Bishopton, and 71 mph at Loftus, North Yorkshire.


Figure 3. Image of Hurricane Katia taken from the International Space Station at 15 GMT September 9, 2011, by astronaut Ron Garan. At the time, Katia was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Long Island, New York is visible at the lower left.


Figure 4. Surface wind estimate from the Windsat satellite at 4:04 am EDT on Monday, September 12, 2011. The center of Extratropical Storm Katia is marked by an "L", and winds in excess of 50 knots (58 mph, purple triangles) were occurring to the southwest of the center, near the west coast of Ireland. Image credit: NOAA.

As reported by UK Met Office forecaster John Hammond in a post on the BBC 23 degrees blog, Britain has been affected at least eight times in the past twenty years by extratropical storms that were once tropical storms or hurricanes. Before Katia of 2011, the most recent such storm was Hurricane Bill of 2009, which hit Ireland as an extratropical storm on August 25 with sustained winds of 45 mph. Bill was a Category 4 hurricane northeast of the Lesser Antilles five days prior. In 2006, a record three extratropical storms that had once been tropical cyclones hit Britain:

Extratropical Storm Alberto, which had been a strong tropical storm that hit the Florida Panhandle, hit northern Ireland and Scotland as an extratropical storm with 35 mph winds.

Extratropical Storm Gordon hit Ireland on September 21, 2006, with sustained winds of 65 mph. Gordon brought record warm temperatures as tropical air pushed north across the UK, and also strong winds that brought down power lines in Northern Ireland. Wind gusts to 60 mph (97 km/h) occurred in the Isles of Scilly off the southwest coast, and 81 mph (130 km/h) on the mainland.

Extratropical Storm Helene hit Northwestern Ireland on September 27, 2006, with sustained winds of 45 mph.

Figure 5. Path of Hurricane Lili of 1996, which caused $420 million in damage to the U.K. as an extratropical storm.

Other post-tropical cyclones that have the U.K. in the past twenty years include Hurricanes Isaac and Leslie of 2000, Hurricane Karl of 1998, and Hurricane Lili of 1996. The most severe of these storms was Extratropical Storm Lili, which hit Ireland on October 28, 1996, with sustained winds of 65 mph. Lili caused $420 million in damage (2011 dollars) in the U.K. According to Wikipedia, Lili produced a 92 mph (148 km/h) gust at Swansea, South Wales, while bringing a 4' (1.2 meter) storm surge that inundated the River Thames. In Somerset, 500 holiday cottages were severely damaged. A U.S. oil drilling platform, under tow in the North Sea, broke loose during the storm and nearly ran aground at Peterhead. On the Isle of Wight, a sailing boat was beached at Chale Bay; luckily all five occupants were rescued. It was the most damaging storm to have struck the United Kingdom since the Great Storm of 1987, which killed 22 and did $660 million in damage (1996 dollars.) However, Lili also broke a four-month drought over southwest England.

All but one of these storms hit during the peak part of hurricane season, mid-August - late October. The only exception was Ex-Tropical Storm Alberto of 2006, which hit Britain in June.


Figure 6. Hybrid subtropical storm of October 8, 1996, off the coast of Italy. According to Reale and Atlas (2001), the storm had characteristics similar to a hurricane, but formed over cool waters of 21.5°C (71°F.) They reported that "The maximum damage due to wind occurred over the Aeolian Islands, at 38.5°N, 15°E, to the northeast of Sicily: assistance for disaster relief was required. Unfortunately, no weather station data were available, but the media reported sheds, roofs and harbor devices destroyed, and houses and electric lines damaged, due to 'extremely strong westerly wind.' The perfect agreement between the observations at Ustica, the storm scale, the eye-like feature position and the damages over the Aeolian Island reasonably suggest that the hurricane-level intensity of 32 m/s (72 mph) was reached over the Aeolian Islands." A similar hybrid low affected Algeria on 9 - 10 November 2001. This storm produced upwards of 270 mm (10.6") of rain, winds of 33 m/s (74 mph), and killed 737 people near Algiers, mostly from flooding and mud slides. Image credit: Dundee satellite receiving station.

Hurricanes in the Mediterranean Sea?
The Mediterranean Sea between Europe and Africa has experienced several damaging hybrid subtropical storms in recent decades, but has never experienced a fully tropical hurricane in recorded history. However, global warming may cause the Mediterranean to start spawning hurricanes by 2100, according to a 2007 study by a research team led by Miguel Angel Gaertner of the University of Castilla-La Mancha in Toledo, Spain. They ran nine different climate models with resolutions of about 50 km and found that some (but not all) of the models simulated hurricanes in the Mediterranean in September by the end of the century, when ocean temperature could increase by 3°C, reaching 30°C.

Though the Mediterranean may start seeing hurricanes by the end of the century, these storms should be rare and relatively short-lived for three reasons:

1) The Mediterranean is quite far north and is subject to strong wind shear from jet stream activity.

2) The waters are shallow, and have relatively low heat content. There is no deep warm water current like the Gulf Stream.

3) The Mediterranean has a lot of large islands and peninsulas poking into it, increasing the chances that a tropical storm would weaken when it encountered land.

References
Gaertner, M. A., D. Jacob, V. Gil, M. Dominguez, E. Padorno, E. Sanchez, and M. Castro (2007), Tropical cyclones over the Mediterranean Sea in climate change simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L14711, doi:10.1029/2007GL029977.

Haarsma et al., 2013, More hurricanes to hit Western Europe due to global warming, Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/grl.50360

Reale, O., and R. Atlas. 2001: Tropical Cyclone-Like Vortices in the Extratropics: Observational Evidence and Synoptic Analysis, Weather and Forecasting, 16, No. 1, pp. 7-34.

Jeff Masters

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At this hour Victoria is trying clear his tiny eye,but is really passing a bad time right now....THE POWER OF THE DRY AIR
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Quoting Tazmanian:
i this noted on the 18z that the gfs is forcasting are 1st E Pac name storm do you see it this off MX?





i all so noted we may see other ch at 384hrs


same place



not really off Mexico but south of Costa Rica (if that's the one you're pointing out)
Remember 2008 Alma?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
!!!
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i this noted on the 18z that the gfs is forcasting are 1st E Pac name storm do you see it this off MX?





i all so noted we may see other ch at 384hrs


same place

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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 APR 2013 Time : 033000 UTC
Lat : 15:16:14 S Lon : 103:49:16 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 979.3mb/ 74.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.4 4.2

Center Temp : -72.8C Cloud Region Temp : -75.4C

Scene Type : EMBEDDED CENTER CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 68km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 50.0 degrees

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thunderstorms coming from the snow??

I just don't know what to say...deduct your conclusions by looking at the radar
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0421
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 PM CDT TUE APR 09 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST TX TO SOUTHWEST IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 86...87...

VALID 100427Z - 100530Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
86...87...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A CORRIDOR
FROM NWRN TX INTO SWRN IA. REPETITIVE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD LINGER WELL INTO
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

DISCUSSION...850MB COLD FRONT IS GRADUALLY ADVANCING EWD AND
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SERN NEB...SSWWD ACROSS WRN OK INTO NWRN TX.
COINCIDENT WITH THIS FRONT...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS HAVE
EVOLVED WITH LATE EVENING DEVELOPMENT NOW OCCURRING ACROSS NWRN TX.
THIS ACTIVITY IS LIFTING NNEWD ALONG/AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
850MB FRONT AND IS SUPPLIED BY MOIST/BUOYANT ELEVATED PARCELS THAT
YIELD MUCAPE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TO NEAR 1000
J/KG ACROSS SERN NEB. HAIL IS THE MOST LIKELY THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS AND THE LARGEST SEVERE HAIL SHOULD BE LINKED TO THE MORE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY...REPETITIVE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE ICING WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES
HAVE DROPPED BELOW FREEZING.

..DARROW.. 04/10/2013
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Quoting Jedkins01:

First of all, I'm pretty sure the average meteorologist doesn't make 90,000 . That alone is inaccurate, the average is probably more in the 50 to 60,000 range.



Some meteorologists are worth the money; some not. What the author has confused is the TV weather "personality" versus the operational meteorologist. Believe me, for most shift-working forecasters, charm is not a job requirement.
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Quoting hurricanes2018:
water getting warmer!!




thats old look at the date


this is new


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is this weather of the year 2013??
This winter season is not "normal" at all...

Nemo produced snowfall rates over 5" per hour, over 30" in Long Island in just hours. 40" in CT with thundersnow

Q and Rocky hit the same Plains area with heavy snow, thundersnow, blizzard and hurricane winds...

Sandy was half Hurricane/Half nor'easter at one point... Athena comes after dumping over 1 foot in CT

forecast of 15-30" of snow this year has been nearly a "normal thing"??? what?

what kind of winter is this? Year 2100? I don't even know... never seen this.

And severe weather alerts inside winter alerts?
Is nature trying to make us change our minds of what we have understood about these events?

severe weather followed by ice/snow

Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
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There is a Winter Storm Warning in the MIDDLE of the Severe Thunderstorm Watch in Kansas.

I can't even...

Someone snapshoot one of the radar pics from today, so awesome.
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water getting warmer!!
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Are meteorologists really overpaid? Caught my eye and wondered what others here would think of it.


First of all, I'm pretty sure the average meteorologist doesn't make 90,000 . That alone is inaccurate, the average is probably more in the 50 to 60,000 range.

Also, I'd love to see who wrote this article event dare attempt to get a meteorology degree.

I'd say the meteorologist is one of the most misunderstood scientist positions, and professional positions in the general public. Everyone thinks being a doctor or an engineer is hard but then scoffs at at meteorologists "always being wrong but somehow still keep their job". Through influence pop culture, some people act like being a meteorologist is some sort of comical job as a psychic or a medium trying to predict the future through witty comments.

What a joke of an article. Lineman certainly have one of the most dangerous and scary jobs out there. However, they also DO get well paid, maybe not initially, but well experienced and trust ones make good money. Also comparing how dangerous a job is or not and saying that should decide who gets paid more isn't very logical. Lineman are some of the most well payed individuals for non degree trade type of jobs. They should get payed well, and they do make a good living.

Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7958
Quoting ClimateChange:
Record breaking warmth today, Doc. High was 81 in Pittsburgh, PA. May other locations also tied or exceeded daily records. Looks like more of the same tomorrow, and possibly Thursday. Could approach 85 tomorrow with enough sun! Way too hot for early April!


There's also been some record cold temps on the backside of that beast front moving through the midwest (along with the interesting thunder-icing taking place). Interesting weather.

Tomorrow it's supposed to hit 90 here around the DC-Baltimore area. That's a bit on the toasty side for this time of year, but the sudden onslaught of warm temps has certainly made the cherry and dogwood trees pop.
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Quoting Xyrus2000:


Not quite right. Pure water (as in distilled to remove all impurities) is an extremely poor conductor. What makes it conductive is all the minerals/salts/etc. that are dissolved in it. Thus, pretty much any water you find in nature (or anywhere else for that matter) will have at least some conductivity due to contamination from pollution and/or natural sources.


I meant to say from lightning... an average discharge of over 3,000,000 volts.
I still think it's not safe at all having contact with water when it happens
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


water is one of the best electricity conductors, I must make sure I have no contact with water whatsoever with the surroundings..otherwise potential big shake


Not quite right. Pure water (as in distilled to remove all impurities) is an extremely poor conductor. What makes it conductive is all the minerals/salts/etc. that are dissolved in it. Thus, pretty much any water you find in nature (or anywhere else for that matter) will have at least some conductivity due to contamination from pollution and/or natural sources.
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...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY.

* TIMING...AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...CONTINUING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* TOTAL SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS...GENERALLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER INCH OF ICE IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT ALSO RECEIVE
THUNDERSTORMS.

Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
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???

Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting Astrometeor:
Max, see now?







yeah.. What a severe winter storm this is...
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
I wonder how far south the sub-freezing temps will end up digging. This front has been vastly underforecasted thus far.




The air is so cold its density is making it flow so much faster!
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I wonder how far south the sub-freezing temps will end up digging. This front has been vastly underforecasted thus far.

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Record breaking warmth today, Doc. High was 81 in Pittsburgh, PA. May other locations also tied or exceeded daily records. Looks like more of the same tomorrow, and possibly Thursday. Could approach 85 tomorrow with enough sun! Way too hot for early April!
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Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Denver will set a new record for the coldest high on April 9th. The high today is 22 and the previous coldest high for the date was 27 in 1973.

Cheyenne WY also set a record coldest high for the date of 12 which shatters the previous record coldest high of 23 set in 1997. This is also the coldest high temperature so late in spring for Cheyenne.

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Quoting wxchaser97:

Then there are the people who know better not to do that, but still do it, like me. I'll be outside unless the weather is "Immediately Dangerous to Life and Health".


If I didn't respect teachers and administrators with the little I do, I would stand outside of school scanning the skies every time there is a tornado warning out.

g2g guys, shall be back.
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AccuWeather.com ‏@breakingweather 17m
Rapid City is still reporting heavy snow, with accumulations now reaching 15 inches from the storm so far.

Another Nemo-like crazy snowstorm

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT
WEDNESDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT
WEDNESDAY.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

* MAIN HAZARD...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 12 TO 22 INCHES.

* OTHER CONDITIONS...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES
TO UNDER A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES...MAINLY THIS EVENING.

* IMPACT...THE HEAVY SNOW WILL CREATE DANGEROUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS.
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Another batch post frontal precip is starting to form behind everything else although it is more run of the mill this time instead of convective.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11694
Quoting wxchaser97:

Then there are the people who know better not to do that, but still do it, like me. I'll be outside unless the weather is "Immediately Dangerous to Life and Health".


water is one of the best electricity conductors, I must make sure I have no contact with water whatsoever with the surroundings..otherwise potential big shake
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Max, see now?





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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Most people have enough common sense not to do so.

Then there are the people who know better not to do that, but still do it, like me. I'll be outside unless the weather is "Immediately Dangerous to Life and Health".
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Sat image as of 10:15 PM EDT, 9:15 PM CDT
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Most people have enough common sense not to do so.

If its just raining i'll do whatever, If its lightning... I will reconsider
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Quoting SPLbeater:


I like the other 95% better.

Aint too many people round her that wanna ride bikes with me or play football in the rain and lightin...

Most people have enough common sense not to do so.
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I see the big Walda deal now...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting SPLbeater:


I like the other 95% better.

Aint too many people round her that wanna ride bikes with me or play football in the rain and lightin...


Not too many do that down here either, but its night time, so most don't do it anyways.
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913. beell
Quoting Levi32:


I'll make one for you soon that comes out 4x per day on 5 models. I've wanted to make an isentropic lift product for some time.


Awesome, Levi!!!
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Quoting Astrometeor:
5% eh? I'll take that.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0420
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0936 PM CDT TUE APR 09 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 100236Z - 100400Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
FROM W TO E ACROSS SRN WI TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE
HAIL...BUT THE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A WW.

DISCUSSION...BAROCLINIC ZONE AT 850 MB EXTENDS FROM NERN IA INTO
CNTRL PORTIONS OF LOWER MI. WAA IS INCREASING WITHIN THIS ZONE IN
RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SLY JET OVER IL. MEANWHILE...A
COLD/STABLE AIRMASS EXISTS NEAR THE SURFACE...WHILE WARM/MOIST NOSE
IS CENTERED BETWEEN 850-700 MB...WHICH IS SUPPORTING MUCAPE VALUES
FROM 500 TO NEAR 1000 J/KG OVER SRN WI. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE ASCENT
AND BUOYANCY FOCUSED OVER THE AREA...IN ADDITION TO STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 40-60 KT...A FEW
ELEVATED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.

..GARNER/HART.. 04/10/2013


ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

LAT...LON 43019140 43869127 44119024 43968781 43168738 42528778
42388842 42439062 43019140


I like the other 95% better.

Aint too many people round her that wanna ride bikes with me or play football in the rain and lightin...
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XX/XX/XX
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5% eh? I'll take that.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0420
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0936 PM CDT TUE APR 09 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 100236Z - 100400Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
FROM W TO E ACROSS SRN WI TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE
HAIL...BUT THE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A WW.

DISCUSSION...BAROCLINIC ZONE AT 850 MB EXTENDS FROM NERN IA INTO
CNTRL PORTIONS OF LOWER MI. WAA IS INCREASING WITHIN THIS ZONE IN
RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SLY JET OVER IL. MEANWHILE...A
COLD/STABLE AIRMASS EXISTS NEAR THE SURFACE...WHILE WARM/MOIST NOSE
IS CENTERED BETWEEN 850-700 MB...WHICH IS SUPPORTING MUCAPE VALUES
FROM 500 TO NEAR 1000 J/KG OVER SRN WI. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE ASCENT
AND BUOYANCY FOCUSED OVER THE AREA...IN ADDITION TO STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 40-60 KT...A FEW
ELEVATED STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.

..GARNER/HART.. 04/10/2013


ATTN...WFO...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

LAT...LON 43019140 43869127 44119024 43968781 43168738 42528778
42388842 42439062 43019140
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Quoting beell:


NAM 300k pressure/wind/mixing ratio/RH (fill) Valid 00Z 04/10

Only comes out twice per day (00Z and 12Z) but a cleaner look.


I'll make one for you soon that comes out 4x per day on 5 models. I've wanted to make an isentropic lift product for some time.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26695
Look at this map and just take it in...the bizarre combination of colors. It's really quite unique.

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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Whats the electric power situation with those subfreezing thunderstorms in Kansas? Heavy freezing rain with strong thunderstorm winds would do ugly things to power lines.


everything turns to glass
then snap crackle pop to follow
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Are meteorologists really overpaid?


salary.com needs to check out the weatherman's stress potentiability. As in, the pressure on the NHC to do H warnings for Sandy even though she was post-tropical. Companies wanting to know where to route their trucks to maximize profit, the little kid that wants to know if there will be school tomorrow.

"no one will get mad if you get the forecast 100% wrong."

Yeah........no.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Are meteorologists really overpaid?


Are librarians overpaid?

I don't think so....
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0419
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0901 PM CDT TUE APR 09 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN KS...WRN MO...NWRN AR...ERN OK...NRN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 100201Z - 100330Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS FAR ERN
KS...WRN MO...NWRN AR...ERN OK AND NRN TX. IF THIS TAKES
PLACE...LARGE HAIL...IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
A TORNADO WOULD BE POSSIBLE. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...AT 0145Z...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED
INVOF KANSAS CITY/TOPEKA...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSWWD INTO
SRN OK/NRN TX. SURFACE AIRMASS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS
CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
LOW 60S. THIS AIRMASS COMBINED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IS
AIDING IN MLCAPE VALUES FROM 500-1500 J/KG. HOWEVER...00Z RAOB FROM
SGF ALSO INDICATES THAT THE AREA RESIDES ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF A
STRONG EML AND CAP. FOR THIS REASON...THUNDERSTORM INITIATION HAS
BEEN INHIBITED...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A COUPLE OF SMALL CELLS IN
FAR SERN KS/NERN OK...AND SEVERAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN NWRN TX.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD ASSIST IN A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NIGHT. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...MULTICELL
CLUSTERS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...POSING A THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO. A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY IF CONVECTIVE/ENVIRONMENTAL
TRENDS APPEAR TO SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO.

..GARNER/HART.. 04/10/2013


ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...T OP...ICT...
FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 33519766 34389740 36069614 37649585 38909522 39479385
38789266 36109346 33649553 33169699 33519766

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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