Europe expected to see a large increase in Hurricane Sandy-like hybrid storms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:18 PM GMT on April 08, 2013

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Watch out, Europe. Dangerous part-hurricane, part extratropical hybrid storms like Hurricane Sandy of 2012 are expected to be an increasing threat for Western Europe by the end of the century due to global warming, said a team of scientists led by Reindert J. Haarsma of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute. In a paper called "More hurricanes to hit Western Europe due to global warming", published in April 2013 in Geophysical Research Letters, the researchers describe the results from runs of a high-resolution (25 km grid spacing) climate model based on the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) numerical weather prediction model. The model predicts that the breeding ground for Atlantic hurricanes will shift approximately 700 miles eastwards as the oceans warm this century. Hurricanes which form farther to the east can spend more time over warm tropical waters before turning north and northeast towards Europe, increasing the odds that these storms will have hurricane-force winds upon arrival in Europe. The model showed that wind shear will change little in the region over the coming decades, resulting in a large increase in storms with hurricane-force winds affecting Western Europe. Most of the these storms will not be tropical hurricanes upon arrival in Europe, but will be former hurricanes that have transitioned to extratropical storms. However, as we saw with Hurricane Sandy of 2012, these hybrid storms can be extremely dangerous. Summed over Norway, the North Sea, and the Gulf of Biscay, the model found that the number of hurricane-force storms in August - October increased from 2 to 13 over the 21st century, with almost all future West European hurricane-force storms predicted to originate as hurricanes or tropical storms in the tropics by 2100. The researchers conclude that "tropical cyclones will increase the probability of present-day extreme events over the North Sea and the Gulf of Biscay with a factor of 5 and 25 respectively, with far reaching consequences especially for coastal safety."


Figure 1. Hurricane Sandy at 10:10 am EDT October 28, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Europe's hurricane history
Only once since accurate records began in 1851 has an actual hurricane with full tropical characteristics hit Europe. This happened on September 16, 1961, when Category 1 Hurricane Debbie hit northwestern Ireland. Wind gusts reached 106 mph at Ballykelly and 104 mph at Tiree and Snaefill, and coastal radio stations reported the airwaves were jammed with calls for help from small ships and fishing craft. Eleven people were killed and 50 injured in the storm. The only other tropical cyclone recorded to have hit Europe since 1851 was Hurricane Vince of 2005, which hit southern Spain as a tropical depression on October 11, 2005. Historical documents also suggest a hurricane hit Spain on October 29, 1842.


Figure 2. Hurricane Debbie of 1961 was the only fully tropical hurricane ever recorded to hit Europe.

Britain's history of ex-hurricane strikes
Hurricanes that transition to powerful extratropical storms hit the British Isles several times per decade, on average. In 2011, Hurricane Katia brushed by Newfoundland, made the transition from a tropical system to a powerful extratropical storm, and maintained strong winds of 50 - 65 mph as it crossed the Atlantic. Ex-Katia hit northern Scotland on September 12, 2011. Glen Ogle, Scotland, at an elevation of 1500 feet (546 meters), received sustained winds of 60 mph, gusting to 86 mph. Cairngorm, in the Scottish Highlands at an elevation of 4085 feet, reported sustained winds of 67 mph. With the trees in full leaf, tree damage was much higher than a winter or springtime storm of similar ferocity would have caused. One person was killed by a falling tree, and heavy tree damage and numerous power failures were reported throughout Britain. Other gusts experienced in Britain included 76 mph at Edinburgh Blackford Hill, 75 mph at Capel Curig in Wales, 72 mph at Glasgow Bishopton, and 71 mph at Loftus, North Yorkshire.


Figure 3. Image of Hurricane Katia taken from the International Space Station at 15 GMT September 9, 2011, by astronaut Ron Garan. At the time, Katia was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Long Island, New York is visible at the lower left.


Figure 4. Surface wind estimate from the Windsat satellite at 4:04 am EDT on Monday, September 12, 2011. The center of Extratropical Storm Katia is marked by an "L", and winds in excess of 50 knots (58 mph, purple triangles) were occurring to the southwest of the center, near the west coast of Ireland. Image credit: NOAA.

As reported by UK Met Office forecaster John Hammond in a post on the BBC 23 degrees blog, Britain has been affected at least eight times in the past twenty years by extratropical storms that were once tropical storms or hurricanes. Before Katia of 2011, the most recent such storm was Hurricane Bill of 2009, which hit Ireland as an extratropical storm on August 25 with sustained winds of 45 mph. Bill was a Category 4 hurricane northeast of the Lesser Antilles five days prior. In 2006, a record three extratropical storms that had once been tropical cyclones hit Britain:

Extratropical Storm Alberto, which had been a strong tropical storm that hit the Florida Panhandle, hit northern Ireland and Scotland as an extratropical storm with 35 mph winds.

Extratropical Storm Gordon hit Ireland on September 21, 2006, with sustained winds of 65 mph. Gordon brought record warm temperatures as tropical air pushed north across the UK, and also strong winds that brought down power lines in Northern Ireland. Wind gusts to 60 mph (97 km/h) occurred in the Isles of Scilly off the southwest coast, and 81 mph (130 km/h) on the mainland.

Extratropical Storm Helene hit Northwestern Ireland on September 27, 2006, with sustained winds of 45 mph.

Figure 5. Path of Hurricane Lili of 1996, which caused $420 million in damage to the U.K. as an extratropical storm.

Other post-tropical cyclones that have the U.K. in the past twenty years include Hurricanes Isaac and Leslie of 2000, Hurricane Karl of 1998, and Hurricane Lili of 1996. The most severe of these storms was Extratropical Storm Lili, which hit Ireland on October 28, 1996, with sustained winds of 65 mph. Lili caused $420 million in damage (2011 dollars) in the U.K. According to Wikipedia, Lili produced a 92 mph (148 km/h) gust at Swansea, South Wales, while bringing a 4' (1.2 meter) storm surge that inundated the River Thames. In Somerset, 500 holiday cottages were severely damaged. A U.S. oil drilling platform, under tow in the North Sea, broke loose during the storm and nearly ran aground at Peterhead. On the Isle of Wight, a sailing boat was beached at Chale Bay; luckily all five occupants were rescued. It was the most damaging storm to have struck the United Kingdom since the Great Storm of 1987, which killed 22 and did $660 million in damage (1996 dollars.) However, Lili also broke a four-month drought over southwest England.

All but one of these storms hit during the peak part of hurricane season, mid-August - late October. The only exception was Ex-Tropical Storm Alberto of 2006, which hit Britain in June.


Figure 6. Hybrid subtropical storm of October 8, 1996, off the coast of Italy. According to Reale and Atlas (2001), the storm had characteristics similar to a hurricane, but formed over cool waters of 21.5°C (71°F.) They reported that "The maximum damage due to wind occurred over the Aeolian Islands, at 38.5°N, 15°E, to the northeast of Sicily: assistance for disaster relief was required. Unfortunately, no weather station data were available, but the media reported sheds, roofs and harbor devices destroyed, and houses and electric lines damaged, due to 'extremely strong westerly wind.' The perfect agreement between the observations at Ustica, the storm scale, the eye-like feature position and the damages over the Aeolian Island reasonably suggest that the hurricane-level intensity of 32 m/s (72 mph) was reached over the Aeolian Islands." A similar hybrid low affected Algeria on 9 - 10 November 2001. This storm produced upwards of 270 mm (10.6") of rain, winds of 33 m/s (74 mph), and killed 737 people near Algiers, mostly from flooding and mud slides. Image credit: Dundee satellite receiving station.

Hurricanes in the Mediterranean Sea?
The Mediterranean Sea between Europe and Africa has experienced several damaging hybrid subtropical storms in recent decades, but has never experienced a fully tropical hurricane in recorded history. However, global warming may cause the Mediterranean to start spawning hurricanes by 2100, according to a 2007 study by a research team led by Miguel Angel Gaertner of the University of Castilla-La Mancha in Toledo, Spain. They ran nine different climate models with resolutions of about 50 km and found that some (but not all) of the models simulated hurricanes in the Mediterranean in September by the end of the century, when ocean temperature could increase by 3°C, reaching 30°C.

Though the Mediterranean may start seeing hurricanes by the end of the century, these storms should be rare and relatively short-lived for three reasons:

1) The Mediterranean is quite far north and is subject to strong wind shear from jet stream activity.

2) The waters are shallow, and have relatively low heat content. There is no deep warm water current like the Gulf Stream.

3) The Mediterranean has a lot of large islands and peninsulas poking into it, increasing the chances that a tropical storm would weaken when it encountered land.

References
Gaertner, M. A., D. Jacob, V. Gil, M. Dominguez, E. Padorno, E. Sanchez, and M. Castro (2007), Tropical cyclones over the Mediterranean Sea in climate change simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L14711, doi:10.1029/2007GL029977.

Haarsma et al., 2013, More hurricanes to hit Western Europe due to global warming, Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/grl.50360

Reale, O., and R. Atlas. 2001: Tropical Cyclone-Like Vortices in the Extratropics: Observational Evidence and Synoptic Analysis, Weather and Forecasting, 16, No. 1, pp. 7-34.

Jeff Masters

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0399
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 PM CDT MON APR 08 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/N-CNTRL AZ...S-CNTRL/SWRN NV

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 081736Z - 081930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG GUSTS.
OVERALL WEAK/TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE CONVECTION PRECLUDES THE NEED
FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...AN INTENSE MIDLEVEL TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS SRN NV AND
INTO NRN AZ. AS IT DOES...A SURFACE LOW...CENTERED OVER SW NV AT
17Z...AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE EWD. STRONG FORCING
FOR ASCENT OVER THE LEFT EXIT OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IN
CONJUNCTION WITH FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED
TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS N-CNTRL/NERN AZ AND S-CNTRL/SWRN NV
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SCANT MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY /MUCAPE FROM
200-400 J PER KG/ WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND PERSISTENCE...BUT
GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING AND ROBUST DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD...A FEW
STRONG...CONVECTIVELY-DRIVEN WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. LIMITED STORM
STRENGTH AND PERSISTENCE WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 04/08/2013


ATTN...WFO...GJT...FGZ...SLC...

LAT...LON 34281188 34221235 34271268 34431301 34591311 34751318
34991319 35241310 35521294 36231262 36691236 37751128
38101093 38331051 38421018 38460980 38400952 38260937
38010930 37670937 37290951 36550992 35641046 34921097
34281188
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15093
After further investigation of last weeks hail storm of the local area near me I saw some spectacular sights from last weeks hail damage.

Baseball size hail holes in back windows of vehicles, some were completely blown out, windshields cracked and busted. Siding nicked and pelted to oblivion. House windows boarded up due to being blown out, even saw a plastic mailbox with baseball size holes in it. Gas station signs with holes, metal with dents, roofer signs in yards in entire neighborhoods.

Cemetery along Hwy 6 was amazing sight, pine trees were stripped, had new light brown bark patches from being hit on the side the winds were blowing it, tree debris everywhere, fake flowers were strewn about, glass solar lights were cracked and shattered on plots and headstones, decorations were stripped and destroyed, there were divots (holes) the size of golf balls on the ground as far as the eye could see where you walked. My thought was, when this event was happening the noise that was going on in the cemetery must of been amazing, the cemetery was ALIVE.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:



I wrote you two down...tnks


Going closer to average this year for me. 15-6-3
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Quoting LargoFl:
well when talking about florida's drought..one must remember most if not all of florida Drinking water comes from underground Aquifers...so we need the kind of rain, that soaks Into the ground, not the kind that floods the streets and into the sewers etc..we need days and days of that light kind of all day all night rain that soaks into the ground and replenishes the aquifer..and the lakes also help with that...
I remember seeing a show yesterday that was comparing different states drinking water.They said Florida had some kinda sweet taste to it.Is that true?.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16756
Another Danger in Florida's Drought................."Saltwater intrusion" in South Florida has worsened through the decades as providing water and flood control for a growing population siphons away freshwater and allows more saltwater to seep into aquifers and well fields.

Ninety percent of South Florida gets its drinking water from underground supplies, most from the Biscayne aquifer. Pumping too much water from underground supplies can allow saltwater to push in from the coast.

Droughts can make saltwater intrusion worse as pumping to provide drinking water continues while rains don't come to replenish underground freshwater supplies.

Now South Florida officials are projecting that sea-level rise due to climate change could increase the reach of saltwater that can make water from community wells undrinkable.

That has city and county utilities along the southeast Florida coast exploring expensive alternatives, with costs passed along to ratepayers, to avoid getting cut off from freshwater.

"It is still progressing westward," Hector Castro, Hallandale Beach public works and utilities director, said. "Eventually all coastal communities will deal with this in some way, shape or form."

Hallandale Beach, Pompano Beach, Dania Beach, Lantana and Lake Worth are among local cities that in recent years have been most at risk from saltwater intrusion.

But the line of saltwater spreading inland comes close to or reaches cities from Jupiter to Florida City, including West Palm Beach, Delray Beach, Boca Raton, Fort Lauderdale, Hollywood and Miami, according to theU.S. Geological Survey.

Reducing well-field pumping, moving well fields farther inland and requiring utilities to pursue alternative water supplies have helped hold the line of saltwater intrusion in some areas and even push it back east.

"It's a serious threat," said Pete Kwiatkowski, South Florida Water Management District water-shortage incident commander. "That saltwater front is very dynamic (and) it does shift."
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37956
19-10-2

"Shear" intuition.
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 1566
well when talking about florida's drought..one must remember most if not all of florida Drinking water comes from underground Aquifers...so we need the kind of rain, that soaks Into the ground, not the kind that floods the streets and into the sewers etc..we need days and days of that light kind of all day all night rain that soaks into the ground and replenishes the aquifer..and the lakes also help with that...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37956
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Im saying 18-6-4

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:



I say 14-8-3


I wrote you two down...tnks
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I saw that central Florida needs 9" to get out of drought. Indeed, lets hope that isn't one afternoon.

I'm hoping for enough water to flush out the Indian River Lagoon, so the marine algal bloom will end, seagrass will grow back, and both the manatee and fishing industry will be saved.

VR, catching the dregs of all our hurricanes brings a new meaning to luck of the Irish. Then again, we were wondering why your island was so green.
Member Since: December 28, 2006 Posts: 114 Comments: 1566
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 37956
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Im saying 18-6-4




I say 14-8-3
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Transition of National Hurricane Center Audio Briefings from Experimental to Operational Effective June 1, 2013

Excerpt:

In an effort to provide users with additional information to
enhance planning and preparedness decisions, NHC will provide
Audio Briefings (also called podcasts), when the media pool is
activated by the NHC Public Affairs Officer. In general, the
media pool is activated by NHC when a hurricane watch is
initiated for a portion of the United States coastline. The
audio briefings will provide the latest information regarding the
hurricane threat and its expected impacts.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Your location for getting impact from extratropical cyclones would be like Florida... You live in Ireland right?


Yeah I live on the North Coast of the Republic Of Ireland . that tends to be where alot of the tail end of storms show up . Thankfully they do not carry the sustained winds that Hurricane areas get but the gusts can be hurricane strength ... That why I watch the tropical storms .
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No oftense but what is the point of that chart now?.It has become to over crowded.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16756
Blizzard warnings are just to the SE of Denver...earlier the winter watch was calling or 9-13" and it has been reduced to 6-11"

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Quoting VR46L:




The fact is that in 2011 in the space of 2 weeks we got a bit of Katia , Yes Lee and Maria in succession .

Last year a little of Alberto , Beryl and chris brought heavy rains in May June . and to be honest most of the others all contributed to our rotten summer . Nadine was brutal even though she did not hit .. when she shed her convection south of the Azores it went up to the UK and resulted in 4 deaths .

If you track most of the weather that exits the US it tends to hit the Irish Coastline in some form .. The Jet stream tends to bring everything to me ...



Your location for getting impact from extratropical cyclones would be like Florida... You live in Ireland right?
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Im saying 18-6-4

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9725
Quoting VR46L:




The fact is that in 2011 in the space of 2 weeks we got a bit of Katia , Yes Lee and Maria in succession .

Last year a little of Alberto , Beryl and chris brought heavy rains in May June . and to be honest most of the others all contributed to our rotten summer . Nadine was brutal even though she did not hit .. when she shed her convection south of the Azores it went up to the UK and resulted in 4 deaths .

If you track most of the weather that exits the US it tends to hit the Irish Coastline in some form .. The Jet stream tends to bring everything to me ...



You guys seem to be in the perfect spot of recurving storms.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2690
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi from warm PR. Do you add all the expert forecasts or a few of them?


well, I'll add the ones we all recognize. TWC, TSR, CSU, AccuWeather, NHC and if WU gives any numbers, (I'm not sure about that), I'll add them as well. About those.

Edit...I meant to say 9 hurricanes, since I fixed after some of you quoted me when it said 6 hurricanes...sorry about that.
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From past blog here is the Ocean Briefing. It looks like the PDO will remain in negative for a few more months and we know the implications of having the PDO in negative has on ENSO.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14213
I Suspect CSU numbers will be a bit higher than TWC
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Quoting Thrawst:


5/6 hurricanes becoming majors is a tough task in my opinion.


I agree... 5 majors is the high-end limit... I don't even think we could get that much, but it's possible.

Im calling for 2-3 majors as of now.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
VR... I would like to have your opinion about this blog, you could be affected over there or your future generations




The fact is that in 2011 in the space of 2 weeks we got a bit of Katia , Yes Lee and Maria in succession .

Last year a little of Alberto , Beryl and chris brought heavy rains in May June . and to be honest most of the others all contributed to our rotten summer . Nadine was brutal even though she did not hit .. when she shed her convection south of the Azores it went up to the UK and resulted in 4 deaths .

If you track most of the weather that exits the US it tends to hit the Irish Coastline in some form .. The Jet stream tends to bring everything to me ...

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Nearly 2 feet for Rapid City?...dang!

hopefully this won't be a big bust (if you want that much snow)...just saying
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
From the last blog...
TWC has issued their Hurricane Outlook, calling for 16 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 5 majors



I'll add theirs into my hurricane chart


5/6 hurricanes becoming majors is a tough task in my opinion.

*Edit: Lol I can't see.. Never mind xD
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
From the last blog...
TWC has issued their Hurricane Outlook, calling for 16 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 5 majors



I'll add theirs into my hurricane chart


Hi from warm PR. Do you add all the expert forecasts or a few of them?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14213
Thanks Dr. Masters.

Studies like these are money well spent. With this climate change presently occurring, and the low odds of mankind altering its course, nations need to prepare.

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From the last blog...
TWC has issued their Hurricane Outlook, calling for 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 5 majors



I'll add theirs into my hurricane chart
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Quoting FL1980:
Can we ever have an article written without talk of global warming?? The discussion is so tiring. Whether its happening or not, there is nothing you can do about it. The earth has been around for millions of years and it will continue to be. This conversation is getting old!


The question is not whether or not the world will still be here. It's about whether or not WE will still be here. Global climate changes, historically, have completely decimated human civilizations. And even with all our advanced technology, our entire food supply depends on a climate capable of supporting the human population. In addition, our traditional energy sources are being depleted which will make it more and more difficult to take actions when we need to adapt unless other sources of energy come along to affordably replace them.

If YOU don't want to hear or think about it, that's your choice. But a number of people, including business and government decision makers, do want to hear about it in order to make plans that go a little further than the next generation.

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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Maybe you'll get a June tropical storm down there. I think the drought in FL is too severe for afternoon thunderstorms to solve.


I agree, some lakes in Volusia County are completely dry for the first time since 2000. Afternoon thunderstorms will help yes but it will more than likely take a tropical storm to get us back to where we should be. I will say this though we have had years where no tropical systems hit FL and still end up with 55" to 80" of rain over the coarse of a 6 month span.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2690
VR... I would like to have your opinion about this blog, you could be affected over there or your future generations

these could come more frequent...
Rolf 2011
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Quoting StormTrackerScott:


It's nice to see the rains starting to kick back up as C FL is still in a very bad drought. It will take a significant amount of rain for us pull out of this one.



Maybe you'll get a June tropical storm down there. I think the drought in FL is too severe for afternoon thunderstorms to solve.
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Tropical Cyclone Imelda... nice NASA sat
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Quoting Jedkins01:



Weather has been crazy this year. March ended up being like the peak of winter, now just couple weeks later upper 80's along with sea breeze thunderstorms are arriving.

In fact, based on NWS discussion and model outputs, you'll think it's late May into early June by next week! There will be a moist and unstable air mass taking control along with very warm temps and favorable conditions for sea breeze circulations.

Dramatic changes in season...


It's nice to see the rains starting to kick back up as C FL is still in a very bad drought. It will take a significant amount of rain for us pull out of this one.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 4 Comments: 2690
nice new map of TWC...

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Quoting Skyepony:
Great blog Jeff.

I'd figured a few weeks ago with the pattern the way it has been recently that we may see one or maybe even two of these sort of storms this year, most likely at the beginning or end of the season.


Noticed a bit of smoke from a wildfire moving into Orlando..



Hope you are wrong LOL!!
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17. Skyepony (Mod)
Great blog Jeff.

I'd figured a few weeks ago with the pattern the way it has been recently that we may see one or maybe even two of these sort of storms this year, most likely at the beginning or end of the season.


Noticed a bit of smoke from a wildfire moving into Orlando..

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Nice to have you back Dr. Masters, hope you had some great vacations...

Indeed, I do foresee some cyclones-like forming in these areas of the Mediterranean and SW Europe getting hit by more left-overs-of tropical cyclones...
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New 12z GFS coming in 3mb stronger with surface low 10kt stronger with winds at all levels.

Unfortunately CAPE is still limited across the SE USA
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9725
Pollen in Gadsden Alabama forests...




Im sure that will be happening all over GA soon too.
Last year when the pollen count was 10000 it was clearly visible like a dust storm to the naked eye, especially at night.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9725
Interesting post Dr. Masters. Good to have you back.....
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Quoting VR46L:
2006 was a boring year for most storm watches ... not for me..






2011,and 2012 were not fun at all.Getting in the way of plans and adding misery to insult.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16756
2006 was a boring year for most storm watchers ... not for me..






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There were some big storms in the past in northwestern Europe also. Like the 1703 storm that destroyed the Eddystone lighthouse.

And the 913 mb storm between the Shetlands and the Faeroe islands on the night of January 9/10 1993. The lowest sea level pressure outside a tropical system known.

That's not a record I'd like to see broken.
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Thanks Dr. I will have to read the article before I weigh in with more specificity. If I read your first paragraph/summary correctly, the assumption I think is that a 700 mile eastward shift in hurricane formation will result in more "fish storms", as far as Conus is concerned, that will ultimately curve back up towards Europe as they transition into extra-tropical entities in the mid-Atlantic. This also assumes, I believe, that many of the Easterly African Waves, in a GW scenario, will develop into storms much closer to the Cape Verde islands than the normal long-track CV trajectories we're are used to.

Are they considering the "blocking" effect of the A-B high which prevents early curvature of many storms if this pattern is firmly established in any given season?..........Don't know how they can assume what the position will be in the coming decades and how GW will affect the normal ridging patterns.
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Quoting Jedkins01:



Weather has been crazy this year. March ended up being like the peak of winter, now just couple weeks later upper 80's along with sea breeze thunderstorms are arriving.

In fact, based on NWS discussion and model outputs, you'll think it's late May into early June by next week! There will be a moist and unstable air mass taking control along with very warm temps and favorable conditions for sea breeze circulations.

Dramatic changes in season...


Yeah. We've had the most mild winter and spring here in the Austin area in years. I don't think it dropped below freezing but maybe two or three times and it has been in the 70s-80s for quite some time. Last year at this time we were well into the 90s by now so I'm loving this weather. My artichoke plants came back in January and have already started producing. Thats when you know you have mild weather in Texas :)
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Can we ever have an article written without talk of global warming?? The discussion is so tiring. Whether its happening or not, there is nothing you can do about it. The earth has been around for millions of years and it will continue to be. This conversation is getting old!
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Interesting Blog Dr Masters. I guess the warmer the ATL becomes at higher Latitudes the higher chance of a Tropical System can hit the UK/Europe. The UK Met said in a tweet there was a "tropical" system that hit the UK in 1986. I'll try and find the tweet and post it later. Also I asked a question in a comment in the last blog. If you could all read it and can help please WU-mail me.
Goodnight all. Cheers
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Thanks Doc !!!

Interesting
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Thanks Doc.Ewww can they post a different hurricane pic?.Seeing raggity Sandy makes me vomit every time I see it.It's been on half of the freaking blog entries already this year.I want to see a beauty out in the ocean being used as a example.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16756

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.