Europe expected to see a large increase in Hurricane Sandy-like hybrid storms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:18 PM GMT on April 08, 2013

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Watch out, Europe. Dangerous part-hurricane, part extratropical hybrid storms like Hurricane Sandy of 2012 are expected to be an increasing threat for Western Europe by the end of the century due to global warming, said a team of scientists led by Reindert J. Haarsma of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute. In a paper called "More hurricanes to hit Western Europe due to global warming", published in April 2013 in Geophysical Research Letters, the researchers describe the results from runs of a high-resolution (25 km grid spacing) climate model based on the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) numerical weather prediction model. The model predicts that the breeding ground for Atlantic hurricanes will shift approximately 700 miles eastwards as the oceans warm this century. Hurricanes which form farther to the east can spend more time over warm tropical waters before turning north and northeast towards Europe, increasing the odds that these storms will have hurricane-force winds upon arrival in Europe. The model showed that wind shear will change little in the region over the coming decades, resulting in a large increase in storms with hurricane-force winds affecting Western Europe. Most of the these storms will not be tropical hurricanes upon arrival in Europe, but will be former hurricanes that have transitioned to extratropical storms. However, as we saw with Hurricane Sandy of 2012, these hybrid storms can be extremely dangerous. Summed over Norway, the North Sea, and the Gulf of Biscay, the model found that the number of hurricane-force storms in August - October increased from 2 to 13 over the 21st century, with almost all future West European hurricane-force storms predicted to originate as hurricanes or tropical storms in the tropics by 2100. The researchers conclude that "tropical cyclones will increase the probability of present-day extreme events over the North Sea and the Gulf of Biscay with a factor of 5 and 25 respectively, with far reaching consequences especially for coastal safety."


Figure 1. Hurricane Sandy at 10:10 am EDT October 28, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Europe's hurricane history
Only once since accurate records began in 1851 has an actual hurricane with full tropical characteristics hit Europe. This happened on September 16, 1961, when Category 1 Hurricane Debbie hit northwestern Ireland. Wind gusts reached 106 mph at Ballykelly and 104 mph at Tiree and Snaefill, and coastal radio stations reported the airwaves were jammed with calls for help from small ships and fishing craft. Eleven people were killed and 50 injured in the storm. The only other tropical cyclone recorded to have hit Europe since 1851 was Hurricane Vince of 2005, which hit southern Spain as a tropical depression on October 11, 2005. Historical documents also suggest a hurricane hit Spain on October 29, 1842.


Figure 2. Hurricane Debbie of 1961 was the only fully tropical hurricane ever recorded to hit Europe.

Britain's history of ex-hurricane strikes
Hurricanes that transition to powerful extratropical storms hit the British Isles several times per decade, on average. In October 2014, after battering Bermuda, the remnants of Hurricane Gonzalo affected Europe as a powerful extratropical storm, bringing strong winds, torrential rain, and heavy snowfall in western, central, and southern portions of the continent. Three people were killed, and damages in Netherlands, Germany, and Slovenia were estimated at $42 million. In 2011, Hurricane Katia brushed by Newfoundland, made the transition from a tropical system to a powerful extratropical storm, and maintained strong winds of 50 - 65 mph as it crossed the Atlantic. Ex-Katia hit northern Scotland on September 12, 2011. Glen Ogle, Scotland, at an elevation of 1500 feet (546 meters), received sustained winds of 60 mph, gusting to 86 mph. Cairngorm, in the Scottish Highlands at an elevation of 4085 feet, reported sustained winds of 67 mph. With the trees in full leaf, tree damage was much higher than a winter or springtime storm of similar ferocity would have caused. One person was killed by a falling tree, and heavy tree damage and numerous power failures were reported throughout Britain. Other gusts experienced in Britain included 76 mph at Edinburgh Blackford Hill, 75 mph at Capel Curig in Wales, 72 mph at Glasgow Bishopton, and 71 mph at Loftus, North Yorkshire.


Figure 3. Image of Hurricane Katia taken from the International Space Station at 15 GMT September 9, 2011, by astronaut Ron Garan. At the time, Katia was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Long Island, New York is visible at the lower left.


Figure 4. Surface wind estimate from the Windsat satellite at 4:04 am EDT on Monday, September 12, 2011. The center of Extratropical Storm Katia is marked by an "L", and winds in excess of 50 knots (58 mph, purple triangles) were occurring to the southwest of the center, near the west coast of Ireland. Image credit: NOAA.

As reported by UK Met Office forecaster John Hammond in a post on the BBC 23 degrees blog, Britain has been affected at least eight times in the past twenty years by extratropical storms that were once tropical storms or hurricanes. Before Katia of 2011, the most recent such storm was Hurricane Bill of 2009, which hit Ireland as an extratropical storm on August 25 with sustained winds of 45 mph. Bill was a Category 4 hurricane northeast of the Lesser Antilles five days prior. In 2006, a record three extratropical storms that had once been tropical cyclones hit Britain:

Extratropical Storm Alberto, which had been a strong tropical storm that hit the Florida Panhandle, hit northern Ireland and Scotland as an extratropical storm with 35 mph winds.

Extratropical Storm Gordon hit Ireland on September 21, 2006, with sustained winds of 65 mph. Gordon brought record warm temperatures as tropical air pushed north across the UK, and also strong winds that brought down power lines in Northern Ireland. Wind gusts to 60 mph (97 km/h) occurred in the Isles of Scilly off the southwest coast, and 81 mph (130 km/h) on the mainland.

Extratropical Storm Helene hit Northwestern Ireland on September 27, 2006, with sustained winds of 45 mph.

Figure 5. Path of Hurricane Lili of 1996, which caused $420 million in damage to the U.K. as an extratropical storm.

Other post-tropical cyclones that have the U.K. in the past twenty years include Hurricanes Isaac and Leslie of 2000, Hurricane Karl of 1998, and Hurricane Lili of 1996. The most severe of these storms was Extratropical Storm Lili, which hit Ireland on October 28, 1996, with sustained winds of 65 mph. Lili caused $420 million in damage (2011 dollars) in the U.K. According to Wikipedia, Lili produced a 92 mph (148 km/h) gust at Swansea, South Wales, while bringing a 4' (1.2 meter) storm surge that inundated the River Thames. In Somerset, 500 holiday cottages were severely damaged. A U.S. oil drilling platform, under tow in the North Sea, broke loose during the storm and nearly ran aground at Peterhead. On the Isle of Wight, a sailing boat was beached at Chale Bay; luckily all five occupants were rescued. It was the most damaging storm to have struck the United Kingdom since the Great Storm of 1987, which killed 22 and did $660 million in damage (1996 dollars.) However, Lili also broke a four-month drought over southwest England.

All but one of these storms hit during the peak part of hurricane season, mid-August - late October. The only exception was Ex-Tropical Storm Alberto of 2006, which hit Britain in June.


Figure 6. Hybrid subtropical storm of October 8, 1996, off the coast of Italy. According to Reale and Atlas (2001), the storm had characteristics similar to a hurricane, but formed over cool waters of 21.5°C (71°F.) They reported that "The maximum damage due to wind occurred over the Aeolian Islands, at 38.5°N, 15°E, to the northeast of Sicily: assistance for disaster relief was required. Unfortunately, no weather station data were available, but the media reported sheds, roofs and harbor devices destroyed, and houses and electric lines damaged, due to 'extremely strong westerly wind.' The perfect agreement between the observations at Ustica, the storm scale, the eye-like feature position and the damages over the Aeolian Island reasonably suggest that the hurricane-level intensity of 32 m/s (72 mph) was reached over the Aeolian Islands." A similar hybrid low affected Algeria on 9 - 10 November 2001. This storm produced upwards of 270 mm (10.6") of rain, winds of 33 m/s (74 mph), and killed 737 people near Algiers, mostly from flooding and mud slides. Image credit: Dundee satellite receiving station.

Hurricanes in the Mediterranean Sea?
The Mediterranean Sea between Europe and Africa has experienced several damaging hybrid subtropical storms in recent decades, but has never experienced a fully tropical hurricane in recorded history. However, global warming may cause the Mediterranean to start spawning hurricanes by 2100, according to a 2007 study by a research team led by Miguel Angel Gaertner of the University of Castilla-La Mancha in Toledo, Spain. They ran nine different climate models with resolutions of about 50 km and found that some (but not all) of the models simulated hurricanes in the Mediterranean in September by the end of the century, when ocean temperature could increase by 3°C, reaching 30°C.

Though the Mediterranean may start seeing hurricanes by the end of the century, these storms should be rare and relatively short-lived for three reasons:

1) The Mediterranean is quite far north and is subject to strong wind shear from jet stream activity.

2) The waters are shallow, and have relatively low heat content. There is no deep warm water current like the Gulf Stream.

3) The Mediterranean has a lot of large islands and peninsulas poking into it, increasing the chances that a tropical storm would weaken when it encountered land.

References
Gaertner, M. A., D. Jacob, V. Gil, M. Dominguez, E. Padorno, E. Sanchez, and M. Castro (2007), Tropical cyclones over the Mediterranean Sea in climate change simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L14711, doi:10.1029/2007GL029977.

Haarsma et al., 2013, More hurricanes to hit Western Europe due to global warming, Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/grl.50360

Reale, O., and R. Atlas. 2001: Tropical Cyclone-Like Vortices in the Extratropics: Observational Evidence and Synoptic Analysis, Weather and Forecasting, 16, No. 1, pp. 7-34.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Hernando44:
Largo, Just got back on and haven't seen anything about our rain chances later this week. Do you have any info.?
hi, dry till wens then 20-30-40 percent chance of showers, probably the afternoon type,now sunday and monday IF this something does form in the gulf next week might be a better chance..way too early to tell..but almost summertime temps huh..shorts and T for sure
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41582
On a sad note for us "older" folks... Annette Funicello has passed away at 70 years of age...
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Quoting aburttschell:
So let me get this straight? This blog talks about current weather conditions only when we are setting heat records? No mention of current events the last 7 blog entries? I think its time to stop the farce and call this a global warming blog.


This is Doctor Jeff Master's blog. If you don't like what he writes, go elsewhere. He doesn't owe anything to you.
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Quoting FL1980:
Can we ever have an article written without talk of global warming?? The discussion is so tiring. Whether its happening or not, there is nothing you can do about it. The earth has been around for millions of years and it will continue to be. This conversation is getting old!


Then don't come to this site.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Well if you think about it Florida is one big swamp.And being surrounded by water on three sides don't help the fact on humidity either where as in Texas they have dry heat.

Yeah. Over here the water tastes like rotting cows. Beef jerky.
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Wind speeds in the UK are 10 seconds sustained, very different from the 60 seconds sustained for hurricanes in the US, and much less damaging.

Hurricane remnants reaching here in the UK are hardly ever anything worth writing home about, and the frequency and intensity of gales appear to have lessened in recent years, possibly due to reduced temperature contrast between northern and southern air masses, due to global warming.

The gales we do get are weaker than US nor'easters, due to the fact that the strength of US storms is boosted by the warm Gulf Stream.

I'm not at all convinced by this particular global warming prediction. We may see more remnants, but we won't get anything like Sandy.
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Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Inland across the FL Penisula is miserable in the summertime starting May thru early October. I know many people that come here in visit from Texas and they all say the heat in FL is way worse as the humidity is smothering. Although our temps don't get as high as in Texas in the summertime our humidity is way worse.
Well if you think about it Florida is one big swamp.And being surrounded by water on three sides don't help the fact on humidity either where as in Texas they have dry heat.
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94S..
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Quoting VR46L:


Barb to be honest I lose count of the storms that Graze Ireland or the remnants that bring wind and rain .. It would have similar stats to Mexico or Florida but thankfully I will never see the sustained force the guys over there do . but its interesting to watch what is your future weather forming in the tropics .


I've once experienced your winds in Ireland in person, lol. In Sept 2001 I decided to walk to Hag's Head on the Cliffs of Moher during a very severe storm, and I was on my own. Boy, I was nearly blown down the brim and could reach the tower only by crawling on the ground (entering from the back side; it was not possible and moreover strictly forbidden to hike along the cliffs). Really scary, but exciting, too. And I was very determined to make it. I survived with a lot of scratches done by the barbed wires, into which I was blown more than only once, lol.



But nevertheless, TS Grace in 2009 was something special. I was very proud of our little European cyclone, lol.
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
This upcoming arctic cold front may be too strong for its own good. Storms that develop along the front may be undercut by the strong arctic airmass, becoming elevated, and reducing some of the severe threats. That's just the arctic front though, the Pacific front and the dryline won't be so harsh on the storms.

I watch isolated storms ahead of the front more closely.
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Scott.You live in one of the hottest cities I have ever been in... Inland Florida can get miserably hot... Heck with the big mouse in the summertime.


Inland across the FL Penisula is miserable in the summertime starting May thru early October. I know many people that come here and visit from Texas and they all say the heat in FL is way worse as the humidity is smothering. Although our temps don't get as high as in Texas in the summertime our humidity is way worse.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 4339
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
I love it Max.... Just a few more degrees and I might start complaining... Much too early for me to get into my "Hot Mode"


here I do want to get the "extra degrees", some good low 60s for us... No complain.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
wash... I think "It tastes like chicken"
Well it looks like you need to pay a visit to your local water company and find out what are they doing to the water.The chemicals have probably "fried" your brain now(no pun intended to the chicken).Lol.
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As far as the upcoming Atlantic season, as well as CSU's April outlook on the 10th, a recent March 2013 article appeared in the International Journal of Climatology looking at an inverse relationship between North American "Snow" cover in January and the subsequent hurricane season. You need to become a member for full access but here is a portion of the abstract and link to the information.

The abstract/article suggests that "light" Jan snow years result in more hurricanes and "heavy" Jan snow years result in less hurricanes. This year had record warmth in North America in January but we have been making up for it in late-Feb/March.

Just another "layer" to the mystery of predicting whether an upcoming season will above or below average; please note that this hypothesis only looks at Jan snow cover in North America and disregards the particular Enso cycle in any given year..................Interesting stuff:

Abstract

The statistically significant inverse relationship is examined between North American snow cover extent during January and North Atlantic hurricane activity during the following hurricane season. To better quantify this relationship the long-term trend and ENSO years were removed from the data. The lightest January snow-cover years (LSY) show sharp increases (40%u201390%) compared to the heaviest January snow-cover years (HSY) in nearly all measures of Atlantic hurricane activity, including the numbers and duration of hurricanes and major hurricanes, and the average seasonal accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index. Approximately, half of the LSY events featured above-normal hurricane seasons and none were below-normal, while approximately half of the HSY featured below-normal hurricane seasons none were above-normal. Composite analyses indicate the anomalous wintertime snow-cover extent and Atlantic hurricane activity are linked through their common association with persistent and hemisphere-wide extratropical circulation anomalies tied to the Arctic Oscillation (AO).


Link
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Quoting StormTrackerScott:


83 now and rising to near 90 the rest of the week with a chance of thunderstorms everyday starting Wednesday here in Orlando.
Scott.You live in one of the hottest cities I have ever been in... Inland Florida can get miserably hot... Heck with the big mouse in the summertime.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Hello Pcola and Palm Beach...how's the tropical weather behaving for the Floridians down there? (lol)
I love it Max.... Just a few more degrees and I might start complaining... Much too early for me to get into my "Hot Mode"
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Quoting Hernando44:
Largo, Just got back on and haven't seen anything about our rain chances later this week. Do you have any info.?


Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 4339
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Hello Pcola and Palm Beach...how's the tropical weather behaving for the Floridians down there?


83 now and rising to near 90 the rest of the week with a chance of thunderstorms everyday starting Wednesday here in Orlando.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 4339
This upcoming arctic cold front may be too strong for its own good. Storms that develop along the front may be undercut by the strong arctic airmass, becoming elevated, and reducing some of the severe threats. That's just the arctic front though, the Pacific front and the dryline won't be so harsh on the storms.
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Hello Pcola and Palm Beach...how's the tropical weather behaving for the Floridians down there? (lol)
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Largo, Just got back on and haven't seen anything about our rain chances later this week. Do you have any info.?
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I remember seeing a show yesterday that was comparing different states drinking water.They said Florida had some kinda sweet taste to it.Is that true?.
wash... I think "It tastes like chicken"
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Quoting barbamz:


Hm, VR46L, as I've just noticed TS Grace which grazed your south coast in Oct 2009 is lacking in the post of Dr. Masters. It has been a cool time on this blog when Grace formed that time.



Barb to be honest I lose count of the storms that Graze Ireland or the remnants that bring wind and rain .. It would have similar stats to Mexico or Florida but thankfully I will never see the sustained force the guys over there do . but its interesting to watch what is your future weather forming in the tropics .
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Thanks for the updated blog Dr. Masters..
Did we go to Vegas this year?..Lol
Welcome back.. :)

PS.Lee did a great job..
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Quoting RTSplayer:
Great find, Dr. Masters.


These findings would seem to validate, but not perfectly agree with my intuitive suspicions I had previously discussed last year. The models predict a different origin of the storms than I had though might happen, but it does make sense because the heat content north-west of Africa should increase.

The number of hurricane-force storms predicted by the models is a surprise, as not even I anticipated it might be that high. That would be like an entire atlantic hurricane season's worth of storms each year.

I had also been thinking more on the lines of lili 1996, or Gordon from last year. That the models start taking full blown hurricanes and post-tropical storms with hurricane conditions right into Europe from the east or central Atlantic was a bit surprising, because I thought increased ridging might prevent that, but that the storms would have been coming around from the NW side of the ridge, like Gordon did.

Overall, a great find, but most of us aren't going to be around to see if the models verify. :( or maybe :)


The sea surface temps will have to increase dramatically for a true tropical storm to hit NW Europe .

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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


good only far up enough where humans have not polluted it (yet) in any way
It smells funny though.Like if you put a match in the water the whole top of the river will be in flames.
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Quoting VR46L:



Yep that goes along way to explain it LOL. might explain the relationship with drink the Irish tend to have too... LOL



Hm, VR46L, as I've just noticed TS Grace which grazed your south coast in Oct 2009 is lacking in the post of Dr. Masters. It has been a cool time on this blog when Grace formed that time.

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Oh yes, the blog is still not working for me on any link, unless I used the right click and "open in new tab" option.

I have no idea why. Google Chrome started doing this to me a few days ago for no apparent reason, and it hasn't gone back.


Edit:

Odd, internet explorer is working properly though.

I did install an update for IE recently.
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Great find, Dr. Masters.


These findings would seem to validate, but not perfectly agree with my intuitive suspicions I had previously discussed last year. The models predict a different origin of the storms than I had though might happen, but it does make sense because the heat content north-west of Africa should increase.

The number of hurricane-force storms predicted by the models is a surprise, as not even I anticipated it might be that high. That would be like an entire atlantic hurricane season's worth of storms each year.

I had also been thinking more on the lines of lili 1996, or Gordon from last year. That the models start taking full blown hurricanes and post-tropical storms with hurricane conditions right into Europe from the east or central Atlantic was a bit surprising, because I thought increased ridging might prevent that, but that the storms would have been coming around from the NW side of the ridge, like Gordon did.

Overall, a great find, but most of us aren't going to be around to see if the models verify. :( or maybe :)
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Quoting WDEmobmet:


Baton Rouge water = slimy

Soap doesn't rinse off [as easily]. Higher sodium ion content has been suggested to relate to higher rates of high blood pressure. But it tastes a heck of lot better than hard water.

Edit: they get the water from aquifers that have recharge zones in SE Mississippi. They leave the Mississippi River water alone. That's special, just for New Orleans.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
The water down here taste very...bleh.You can taste the chemicals in it.Especially if you live by the river.You can taste th river water in your drinks.


good only far up enough where humans have not polluted it (yet) in any way

Here if you don't have a purifier...Poland Spring is your friend.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Same here and all around the NYC area, the water is not so healthy unless purified...if you just drink from the faucet you could taste some chemicals mixed with it.

I'll have to go to upstate New England, Rockies or Yukon in Alaska to get that healthy and fresh water you can just drink by picking it from the creek.
The water down here taste very...bleh.You can taste the chemicals in it.Especially if you live by the river.You can taste th river water in your drinks.
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Quoting WDEmobmet:
And what even worse is Gautier, MS and other areas along the gulf coast

Very disturbing.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I was down in Florida for only a few days and that was about two years ago,and while I was down there I mainly drank bottled/purified water.

The water was being compared to the natural water in Maine and Georgia(who's water they say taste awful).They said thanks to the natural filters underground Florida has this sweet taste to it's water.But it was mostly Maine people that were taking the water test so I had to ask some natives.


Same here and all around the NYC area, the water is not so healthy unless purified...if you just drink from the faucet you could taste some chemicals mixed with it.

I'll have to go to upstate New England, Rockies or Yukon in Alaska to get that healthy and fresh water you can just drink by picking it from the stream.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873

...STRONG STORM TO BRING SNOW...WIND AND BLOWING SNOW TO CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

.A LATE WINTER STORM HAS STARTED TO BRING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS TO
MUCH OF THE AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN WYOMING. THE HEAVIEST THIS STORM WILL CREATE HEAVY
UPSLOPE SNOWFALL FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS
TO CASPER MOUNTAIN.

SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE UPSLOPE FAVORED
LOCATIONS WITH A HIGH IMPACT EXPECTED IN CASPER WHERE A FOOT OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE...ALONG INTERSTATE 80 WHERE NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...AND IN LANDER WHERE OVER A
FOOT OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41582
a strong cold front smashing into very warm humid air..oh oh.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41582
And what even worse is Gautier, MS and other areas along the gulf coast

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Quoting LargoFl:
well floridas water tastes ok i guess, many years ago i was in some other states where the water tasted almost awful,and the hotels had to use water purifiers, must have been very hard water with minerals that didnt taste good.
Quoting bappit:

Soft water tastes good. Try Baton Rouge's. Hard water is nasty.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Yes, most of our water comes from Springs.
I was down in Florida for only a few days and that was about two years ago,and while I was down there I mainly drank bottled/purified water.

The water was being compared to the natural water in Maine and Georgia(who's water they say taste awful).They said thanks to the natural filters underground Florida has this sweet taste to it's water.But it was mostly Maine people that were taking the water test so I had to ask some natives.
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Quoting aburttschell:
So let me get this straight? This blog talks about current weather conditions only when we are setting heat records? No mention of current events the last 7 blog entries? I think its time to stop the farce and call this a global warming blog.
well i also dont like the global warming posts BUT..if YOU..had mader a post about YOUR area's current weather..that would make ONE LESS post about global warming huh..the more you post against GW..the more THEY will post for it...now look what you made me do..yet ANOTHER post about GW lol.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41582
Quoting bappit:

Soft water tastes good. Try Baton Rouge's. Hard water is nasty.


Baton Rouge water = slimy
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What are some of Florida%u2019s worst hurricanes?
1906
The worst hurricane in 170 years killed one hundred railroad workers in the Keys. The eye passed over Miami. At least 34 people were killed when it reached the Pensacola area.

1909, 1910, 1919
A series of bad hurricanes hit the Keys. They damaged the Seven Mile Bridge and caused major damage in Key West.

1921
The last major hurricane to hit Tampa and the Florida central west coast caused over a million dollars in damage. The storm passed across the state and exited at Jacksonville.

1926
The eye passed over Miami. Wind gusts were estimated at 150 miles per hour. Most buildings in Dade and Broward Counties were damaged or destroyed. There was major flooding of all coastal sections, downtown Miami, and downtown Ft. Lauderdale.

(1928) Okeechobee Hurricane
The eye of the hurricane moved ashore near Palm Beach causing widespread destruction. Nearly 2,000 people died when the dikes broke on Lake Okeechobee, causing massive flooding.

(1935) Florida Keys Labor Day Hurricane
This was the strongest storm ever to hit the United States. The winds were estimated up to 250 miles per hour. This small but intense storm (category 5) caused significant damage. Hundreds of World War I veterans who had been sent to the Keys to build the Overseas Railroad were killed. The storm surge floated an entire train away.

(1960) Hurricane Donna
This hurricane had 150 mile per hour winds. It caused major damage in the Keys.

(1992) Hurricane Andrew
This hurricane hit Miami. It was the most costly natural disaster to hit a United States city in modern times. It caused $30 billion in damage.

Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41582
No upgrade to the SPC 2 day
next update is at 1:00AM CDT



Read Full Outlook Here
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MID SOUTH STATES STAY ALERT....................
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ANS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN
GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL PUSH RELATIVELY WARM AND INCREASING MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE. WINDS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE SOUTH WINDS OF 25
MPH WILL OCCUR WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 35 AND 40 MPH.

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
SQUALL LINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SQUALL LINE MAY BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. IT IS ALSO
POSSIBLE A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
SQUALL LINE. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR WITH
MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVING UP TO AT LEAST TWO INCHES OF RAIN.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

$$

JCL
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41582
Wow, the paper about the 1842 storm, linked by Dr. M., is extremely interesting to read (as the whole post, too). Nice detective work of a weather historian.
Thank you very much for this long and elaborated blog post!
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I remember seeing a show yesterday that was comparing different states drinking water.They said Florida had some kinda sweet taste to it.Is that true?.


Yes, most of our water comes from Springs.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 7 Comments: 4339
Quoting biff4ugo:

VR, catching the dregs of all our hurricanes brings a new meaning to luck of the Irish. Then again, we were wondering why your island was so green.



Yep that goes along way to explain it LOL. might explain the relationship with drink the Irish tend to have too... LOL

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Quoting washingtonian115:
I remember seeing a show yesterday that was comparing different states drinking water.They said Florida had some kinda sweet taste to it.Is that true?.

Soft water tastes good. Try Baton Rouge's. Hard water is nasty.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
I remember seeing a show yesterday that was comparing different states drinking water.They said Florida had some kinda sweet taste to it.Is that true?.
well floridas water tastes ok i guess, many years ago i was in some other states where the water tasted almost awful,and the hotels had to use water purifiers, must have been very hard water with minerals that didnt taste good.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41582




MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0399
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 PM CDT MON APR 08 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/N-CNTRL AZ...S-CNTRL/SWRN NV

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 081736Z - 081930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG GUSTS.
OVERALL WEAK/TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE CONVECTION PRECLUDES THE NEED
FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...AN INTENSE MIDLEVEL TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS SRN NV AND
INTO NRN AZ. AS IT DOES...A SURFACE LOW...CENTERED OVER SW NV AT
17Z...AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE EWD. STRONG FORCING
FOR ASCENT OVER THE LEFT EXIT OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK IN
CONJUNCTION WITH FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED
TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS N-CNTRL/NERN AZ AND S-CNTRL/SWRN NV
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SCANT MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY /MUCAPE FROM
200-400 J PER KG/ WILL LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND PERSISTENCE...BUT
GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING AND ROBUST DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD...A FEW
STRONG...CONVECTIVELY-DRIVEN WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. LIMITED STORM
STRENGTH AND PERSISTENCE WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 04/08/2013


ATTN...WFO...GJT...FGZ...SLC...

LAT...LON 34281188 34221235 34271268 34431301 34591311 34751318
34991319 35241310 35521294 36231262 36691236 37751128
38101093 38331051 38421018 38460980 38400952 38260937
38010930 37670937 37290951 36550992 35641046 34921097
34281188
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16208

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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