Europe expected to see a large increase in Hurricane Sandy-like hybrid storms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:18 PM GMT on April 08, 2013

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Watch out, Europe. Dangerous part-hurricane, part extratropical hybrid storms like Hurricane Sandy of 2012 are expected to be an increasing threat for Western Europe by the end of the century due to global warming, said a team of scientists led by Reindert J. Haarsma of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute. In a paper called "More hurricanes to hit Western Europe due to global warming", published in April 2013 in Geophysical Research Letters, the researchers describe the results from runs of a high-resolution (25 km grid spacing) climate model based on the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) numerical weather prediction model. The model predicts that the breeding ground for Atlantic hurricanes will shift approximately 700 miles eastwards as the oceans warm this century. Hurricanes which form farther to the east can spend more time over warm tropical waters before turning north and northeast towards Europe, increasing the odds that these storms will have hurricane-force winds upon arrival in Europe. The model showed that wind shear will change little in the region over the coming decades, resulting in a large increase in storms with hurricane-force winds affecting Western Europe. Most of the these storms will not be tropical hurricanes upon arrival in Europe, but will be former hurricanes that have transitioned to extratropical storms. However, as we saw with Hurricane Sandy of 2012, these hybrid storms can be extremely dangerous. Summed over Norway, the North Sea, and the Gulf of Biscay, the model found that the number of hurricane-force storms in August - October increased from 2 to 13 over the 21st century, with almost all future West European hurricane-force storms predicted to originate as hurricanes or tropical storms in the tropics by 2100. The researchers conclude that "tropical cyclones will increase the probability of present-day extreme events over the North Sea and the Gulf of Biscay with a factor of 5 and 25 respectively, with far reaching consequences especially for coastal safety."


Figure 1. Hurricane Sandy at 10:10 am EDT October 28, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Europe's hurricane history
Only once since accurate records began in 1851 has an actual hurricane with full tropical characteristics hit Europe. This happened on September 16, 1961, when Category 1 Hurricane Debbie hit northwestern Ireland. Wind gusts reached 106 mph at Ballykelly and 104 mph at Tiree and Snaefill, and coastal radio stations reported the airwaves were jammed with calls for help from small ships and fishing craft. Eleven people were killed and 50 injured in the storm. The only other tropical cyclone recorded to have hit Europe since 1851 was Hurricane Vince of 2005, which hit southern Spain as a tropical depression on October 11, 2005. Historical documents also suggest a hurricane hit Spain on October 29, 1842.


Figure 2. Hurricane Debbie of 1961 was the only fully tropical hurricane ever recorded to hit Europe.

Britain's history of ex-hurricane strikes
Hurricanes that transition to powerful extratropical storms hit the British Isles several times per decade, on average. In 2011, Hurricane Katia brushed by Newfoundland, made the transition from a tropical system to a powerful extratropical storm, and maintained strong winds of 50 - 65 mph as it crossed the Atlantic. Ex-Katia hit northern Scotland on September 12, 2011. Glen Ogle, Scotland, at an elevation of 1500 feet (546 meters), received sustained winds of 60 mph, gusting to 86 mph. Cairngorm, in the Scottish Highlands at an elevation of 4085 feet, reported sustained winds of 67 mph. With the trees in full leaf, tree damage was much higher than a winter or springtime storm of similar ferocity would have caused. One person was killed by a falling tree, and heavy tree damage and numerous power failures were reported throughout Britain. Other gusts experienced in Britain included 76 mph at Edinburgh Blackford Hill, 75 mph at Capel Curig in Wales, 72 mph at Glasgow Bishopton, and 71 mph at Loftus, North Yorkshire.


Figure 3. Image of Hurricane Katia taken from the International Space Station at 15 GMT September 9, 2011, by astronaut Ron Garan. At the time, Katia was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Long Island, New York is visible at the lower left.


Figure 4. Surface wind estimate from the Windsat satellite at 4:04 am EDT on Monday, September 12, 2011. The center of Extratropical Storm Katia is marked by an "L", and winds in excess of 50 knots (58 mph, purple triangles) were occurring to the southwest of the center, near the west coast of Ireland. Image credit: NOAA.

As reported by UK Met Office forecaster John Hammond in a post on the BBC 23 degrees blog, Britain has been affected at least eight times in the past twenty years by extratropical storms that were once tropical storms or hurricanes. Before Katia of 2011, the most recent such storm was Hurricane Bill of 2009, which hit Ireland as an extratropical storm on August 25 with sustained winds of 45 mph. Bill was a Category 4 hurricane northeast of the Lesser Antilles five days prior. In 2006, a record three extratropical storms that had once been tropical cyclones hit Britain:

Extratropical Storm Alberto, which had been a strong tropical storm that hit the Florida Panhandle, hit northern Ireland and Scotland as an extratropical storm with 35 mph winds.

Extratropical Storm Gordon hit Ireland on September 21, 2006, with sustained winds of 65 mph. Gordon brought record warm temperatures as tropical air pushed north across the UK, and also strong winds that brought down power lines in Northern Ireland. Wind gusts to 60 mph (97 km/h) occurred in the Isles of Scilly off the southwest coast, and 81 mph (130 km/h) on the mainland.

Extratropical Storm Helene hit Northwestern Ireland on September 27, 2006, with sustained winds of 45 mph.

Figure 5. Path of Hurricane Lili of 1996, which caused $420 million in damage to the U.K. as an extratropical storm.

Other post-tropical cyclones that have the U.K. in the past twenty years include Hurricanes Isaac and Leslie of 2000, Hurricane Karl of 1998, and Hurricane Lili of 1996. The most severe of these storms was Extratropical Storm Lili, which hit Ireland on October 28, 1996, with sustained winds of 65 mph. Lili caused $420 million in damage (2011 dollars) in the U.K. According to Wikipedia, Lili produced a 92 mph (148 km/h) gust at Swansea, South Wales, while bringing a 4' (1.2 meter) storm surge that inundated the River Thames. In Somerset, 500 holiday cottages were severely damaged. A U.S. oil drilling platform, under tow in the North Sea, broke loose during the storm and nearly ran aground at Peterhead. On the Isle of Wight, a sailing boat was beached at Chale Bay; luckily all five occupants were rescued. It was the most damaging storm to have struck the United Kingdom since the Great Storm of 1987, which killed 22 and did $660 million in damage (1996 dollars.) However, Lili also broke a four-month drought over southwest England.

All but one of these storms hit during the peak part of hurricane season, mid-August - late October. The only exception was Ex-Tropical Storm Alberto of 2006, which hit Britain in June.


Figure 6. Hybrid subtropical storm of October 8, 1996, off the coast of Italy. According to Reale and Atlas (2001), the storm had characteristics similar to a hurricane, but formed over cool waters of 21.5°C (71°F.) They reported that "The maximum damage due to wind occurred over the Aeolian Islands, at 38.5°N, 15°E, to the northeast of Sicily: assistance for disaster relief was required. Unfortunately, no weather station data were available, but the media reported sheds, roofs and harbor devices destroyed, and houses and electric lines damaged, due to 'extremely strong westerly wind.' The perfect agreement between the observations at Ustica, the storm scale, the eye-like feature position and the damages over the Aeolian Island reasonably suggest that the hurricane-level intensity of 32 m/s (72 mph) was reached over the Aeolian Islands." A similar hybrid low affected Algeria on 9 - 10 November 2001. This storm produced upwards of 270 mm (10.6") of rain, winds of 33 m/s (74 mph), and killed 737 people near Algiers, mostly from flooding and mud slides. Image credit: Dundee satellite receiving station.

Hurricanes in the Mediterranean Sea?
The Mediterranean Sea between Europe and Africa has experienced several damaging hybrid subtropical storms in recent decades, but has never experienced a fully tropical hurricane in recorded history. However, global warming may cause the Mediterranean to start spawning hurricanes by 2100, according to a 2007 study by a research team led by Miguel Angel Gaertner of the University of Castilla-La Mancha in Toledo, Spain. They ran nine different climate models with resolutions of about 50 km and found that some (but not all) of the models simulated hurricanes in the Mediterranean in September by the end of the century, when ocean temperature could increase by 3°C, reaching 30°C.

Though the Mediterranean may start seeing hurricanes by the end of the century, these storms should be rare and relatively short-lived for three reasons:

1) The Mediterranean is quite far north and is subject to strong wind shear from jet stream activity.

2) The waters are shallow, and have relatively low heat content. There is no deep warm water current like the Gulf Stream.

3) The Mediterranean has a lot of large islands and peninsulas poking into it, increasing the chances that a tropical storm would weaken when it encountered land.

References
Gaertner, M. A., D. Jacob, V. Gil, M. Dominguez, E. Padorno, E. Sanchez, and M. Castro (2007), Tropical cyclones over the Mediterranean Sea in climate change simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L14711, doi:10.1029/2007GL029977.

Haarsma et al., 2013, More hurricanes to hit Western Europe due to global warming, Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/grl.50360

Reale, O., and R. Atlas. 2001: Tropical Cyclone-Like Vortices in the Extratropics: Observational Evidence and Synoptic Analysis, Weather and Forecasting, 16, No. 1, pp. 7-34.

Jeff Masters

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That was one of they biggest severe weather bust yesterday I have ever seen. Storm Chasers in Tornado Alley just may have an off year this year. Any severe weather the rest of the month will likely be east of the Mississippi River.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 2844
#853 Aussie Great Video of Air masses moving over Texas. I have never seen such a clear cold front moving under a warm wet air mass. I think it must be dust or smoke that makes the heavy wedge moving south so clear.

Or perhaps it is pollen. I'm so happy to see the oak tassels finally hitting the ground here. it has been a long season of blooming allergies so far. I read that one climate change prediction was for pollen counts to go up 4 fold! Yeesh! Time to get some shots.
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Quoting aislinnpaps:
Everyone have a wonderful Wednesday! Aussie, have a great Friday!

It's still Wednesday here. Tomorrow is Friday? Do you know something I don't.
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Orlando

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 5 Comments: 2844
1000. ncstorm
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15260
Quoting ColdInFL:
I hope the catch phrase "climate change" works better than "global warming". Not that it hasn't worked well, it's made many a millionare!

Link


Hmmm...The Onion has more credibility than "Climate Depot". But I'll give you some points for humor.
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Quoting aislinnpaps:
Everyone have a wonderful Wednesday! Aussie, have a great Friday!


Aussie is 2 days ahead of us..? you mean Thursday
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
GIVEN LARGELY PARALLEL DEEP-LAYER FLOW TO THE FRONT AND STRONGLY
FORCED-NATURE OF ASCENT...DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD REMAIN
LINEAR WHILE ANY PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY MAY CONSIST OF A MIXED MODE.
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED BOWS/SUPERCELLS
PRIMARILY PRODUCING SWATHS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES
FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST TO THE OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY...AND
LIKELY PERSISTING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT.'


We need to root for As much instability as possible
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Good morning

Snow for the upper MI peninsula
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873

GA

IT
APPEARS WITH THIS SYSTEM SOUTHERN STREAM AND NORTHERN STREAM JET
WILL COME INTO PHASE ALLOWING FOR A SECONDARY POTENT SHORTWAVE TO
ROTATE THROUGH WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE SQUALL LINE AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH. LOW LEVEL JET INCREASE TO 50 KTS AT THIS TIME AS WELL
WITH BOWING SEGMENTS LIKELY ROUGHLY FROM A LA GRANGE TO AHN LINE.
SHOULD THIS PHASING OCCUR...WOULD EXPECT A LARGE AREAL EXTENT OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND CONTINUED POSSIBILITIES OF TORNADOES GIVEN
MODERATE LOW LEVEL HELICITY. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
STRONGER STORMS IN TALLER CORES TO THE SOUTH. CIPS ANALOG SITE
SHOWS A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES FOR THE MOST COMPARABLE STORMS
BUT THE ONES IDENTIFYING SIMILAR SHORTWAVE AND CAPE GENERALLY AGREE
ON DECENT SEVERE WX COVERAGE AND WILL RAMP UP LOCAL PRODUCTS ACCORDINGLY.


AL

UNCERTAINTY
REVOLVES AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR CELLULAR STORMS AHEAD OF THE
QLCS BUT THERE IS AT LEAST SOME CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS TO FORM IN THE CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE QLCS. REGARDLESS OF STORM MODE...ANY
RIGHT-MOVING STORMS OR ELEMENTS OF THE QLCS WILL HAVE AN ENHANCED
DAMAGING WIND THREAT ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT GIVEN
THE EXPECTED 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS AND 0-1 KM STORM-
RELATIVE HELICITY OF 200-300 M2/S2
. THIS WILL BE A RATHER
PROLONGED EVENT FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA AND ANY TRAINING OF STORMS
COULD POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. THE SEVERE WEATHER
RISK MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS 7 AM THURSDAY IN THE NORTHWEST AND LAST
THROUGH 10 PM IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY HIGH WITH SOMEWHAT POOR LAPSE
RATES AND ONLY MODERATE STRENGTH SHEAR EXPECTED...BUT THIS THREAT
SHOULD STILL BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY.



IF THE CAP DOES INDEED WEAKEN, WE COULD SEE A FEW
SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE DEVELOP WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF TORNADOES GIVEN 0-2KM SRH VALUES >200 M2/S2.
MORE LIKELY IS THE THREAT OF SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING IN ANY LEWP
FORMATION ALONG THE QLCS
. FOR NOW, WILL CONTINUE TO EMPHASIZE THE
GREATER RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL,

TN

.FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL INDICATING SUB 1000 FT LCLS
AND 0-3 KM SRH VALUES ABOVE 300 M2/S2 AHEAD OF THE LINE.
HODOGRAPHS CANT LOOK MUCH MORE CLASSIC FOR CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE
LOW LEVELS. ALOFT...A BROAD AND STRONG AREA OF 250 MB DIVERGENCE
DOES APPEAR TO COINCIDE WITH A THIN AREA OF STRONG 850 MB FLOW
THUS DYNAMICAL LIFT IS STILL A PLAYER AS WELL.


that shortwave is the key to breaking the cap
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Everyone have a wonderful Wednesday! Aussie, have a great Friday!
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POLLEN COUNT 4151!!!

Double Yesterday!!!!

And they are all mainly the pollens that cause allergy, not the giant pine pollen that spikes the number up to 10k but doesnt cause allergies...

A lot of oak, birch, willow, mulberry etc.

1 more day till rain.
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I hope the catch phrase "climate change" works better than "global warming". Not that it hasn't worked well, it's made many a millionare!

Link
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Arkansas will look to have a long day into the overnight with severe storms and tornados..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15260
Good Morning..another day on tap for 80 degrees or higher..LOVE IT!!

Wednesday, April 10

Severe thunderstorms along and somewhat ahead of a cold front and along a warm/stationary front in central and southern Illinois, Indiana, central and southern Ohio, southwest Pennsylvania, northwest West Virginia, northern and western Kentucky, west Tennessee, east-central and southern Missouri, Arkansas, southeast Oklahoma, Texas from I-35 eastward and north of a line from San Antonio to Galveston, western and central Louisiana, and western Mississippi. Maximum TOR:CON - 5 southeast Missouri, eastern Arkansas

TOR:CON details:
AR east - 5
IL central, south - 4
IN central, south - 4
KY north, west - 3 to 4
LA west, central - 3
MS west - 3
MO southeast - 5
OH central, south - 2 to 3
OK southeast - 2
PA southwest - 2
TN west - 3
TX east - 3
WV northwest - 2 or less
Wednesday night, April 10-11

Storms continue overnight in central and southern Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, southwest Pennsylvania, northwest West Virginia, west half Kentucky, west half Tennessee, Mississippi, eastern Arkansas, southeast Missouri, central and southeast Louisiana. Maximum TOR:CON - 5 southeast Missouri, eastern Arkansas

TOR:CON details:
AR east - 5
IL central - 4
IN south - 3 to 4
IN central - 4
IN south, north - 3
KY west half - 3
LA central, east - 3
MO southeast - 5
MS - 3
OH - 3
PA southwest - 2
TN west half - 3
WV northwest - 2
other areas - 1 or less
Thursday, April 11

Scattered severe thunderstorms along and just ahead of a cold front and along a warm front in east IN, OH, west PA, western WV, central and east KY, southwest VA, middle and east TN, southwest NC, west SC, north, central, and southwest GA, FL panhandle, east and south MS, southeast LA. Maximum TOR:CON - 4 north half OH.

TOR:CON details:
AL - 2
FL panhandle - 2
GA north, central, southwest - 2
IN east - 3
KY central, east - 3
LA southeast - 2
MS east, south - 2
NC southwest - 2
OH north - 4
OH south - 3
PA west - 2 to 3
SC west - 2 to 3
TN middle, east - 3
VA southwest - 2
WV west - 2
Thursday night, April 11-12

A chance of isolated severe thunderstorms overnight in central and south PA, east OH, WV, MD, DE, south NJ, VA, NC, SC, northeast, central, south GA, FL panhandle. TOR:CON - 2 to 3 these areas
Friday, April 12

A chance of an isolated severe thunderstorm in the FL peninsula, east NC. TOR:CON - less than 2. A lower chance of small hail or a spotty damaging gust farther north in areas east of the Appalachians in south NY, east PA, NJ, MD, DE, VA, NC, SC, southeast GA.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15260
Quoting MahFL:


It's not the volts that kill you, it's the amps. Van de Graph generators have high volts but a small current.

I am living proof that a direct lightning on a human doesn't always kill. I am lucky it passed through my right shoulder, through my body and out my right foot. I have been told if it was Left side, I wouldn't be here.
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988. MahFL
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I meant to say from lightning... an average discharge of over 3,000,000 volts.
I still think it's not safe at all having contact with water when it happens


It's not the volts that kill you, it's the amps. Van de Graph generators have high volts but a small current.
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Good morning to all,evening Aussie. Let's see what CSU forecasts today.

Some scattered showers will move thru PR and the U.S VI today.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
539 AM AST WED APR 10 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...TROUGHINESS WILL FORM OVER AND JUST
EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW AS AN 80 KNOT JET FROM
THE NORTHWEST PULLS ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAKENING RIDGE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...BUT FLOW WILL REMAIN WEST NORTHWEST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS KEEPING TROUGHINESS OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. WEAK MOISTURE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS EXCEPT FOR A SHORT PERIOD ON
SATURDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS A CONTINUOUS PRESENCE IN
THE WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC MAINTAINING MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE LEVELS FLUCTUATE
LITTLE AND KEEP CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ON THE WINDWARD COASTS AND LOCAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNINGS AND OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF
PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FLOW CONTINUED TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS THAT SPILLED OVER THE SHORES OF THE EASTERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO FROM TIME TO TIME. THE HEAVIEST RAINS OCCURRED OVER
HUMACAO AND YABUCOA AS WELL AS DORADO AND VEGA BAJA. BUT SOME
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS ALSO FELL FROM LUQUILLO TO TOA BAJA SINCE
MIDNIGHT. THE MIMIC PRODUCT SHOWS THAT THESE WERE DUE TO A WIDE
BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WHOSE WETTEST POINT HAS
YET TO CROSS THE EASTERN COAST. SO FAR SHOWERS HAVE MISSED THE
RAIN GAGES IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...BUT RADAR SUGGESTS THAT
LIGHT AMOUNTS HAVE FALLEN IN SAINT THOMAS AND SAINT JOHN. DRIER AIR
ENTERS THE AREA TONIGHT BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL STILL POP UP
ON THE EAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO. AMOUNTS AND COVERAGES OF RAIN IN
THE WEST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LESS...BUT
REBOUND SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY AS ANOTHER MOISTURE MAX MOVES THROUGH.
AREAS OF MOISTURE REMAIN SHALLOW THROUGH 20 APRIL...LIMITING
CONVECTION AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TAF SITES IN
THE MORNING HOURS WITH PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. AFTER
10/17Z...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSRA
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN PR...AND MAY AFFECT
TJMZ...AND POSSIBLE TJBQ. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST
NORTHEAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS VARY LITTLE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA WITH WINDS FROM AROUND 12
TO 18 KNOTS. THIS WILL BRING SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 6 FEET FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. AFTER FRIDAY SWELL TRAINS IN BOTH THE
CARIBBEAN AND THE ATLANTIC WILL BE LESS THAN 1 METER...AGAIN THROUGH
20 APRIL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 78 86 77 / 20 30 30 40
STT 85 76 86 77 / 10 20 20 30
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Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. A warm 72 to start my day here with a high of 79 expected, and a possibility of severe storms. I won't have to come home and water the garden today.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Breakfast burritos, scrambled eggs with sausage or bacon, fresh fruit and orange juice. Enjoy.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38386
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
117 AM CDT WED APR 10 2013

...NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...

.LARGE DIFFERENCES IN PRESSURE ARE GENERATING MODERATE TO STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SHELF WATERS. A MINOR TIDAL PILE-UP
IS THE RESULT.

LAZ041-073-074-TXZ215-216-101200-
/O.CON.KLCH.CF.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-130410T1700Z/
CALCASIEU-WEST CAMERON-EAST CAMERON-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
117 AM CDT WED APR 10 2013

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT
TODAY...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY.

* COASTAL FLOODING: THE ACTUAL TIDES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT
ABOVE THE TIDE TABLE VALUES.

* TIMING: NUISANCE TIDAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY MORNING
WEDNESDAY...AT THE TIME OF THE HIGH TIDE.

* IMPACTS: WATER LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 3.0 TO 3.5 FEET
MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT ONSHORE WINDS AND TIDES
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE.

&&

$$
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...A FEW STORMS WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE THIS AFTERNOON...
...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE AREAS WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE PRIMARY
IMPACTS FROM THE STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS,
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

RIP CURRENTS: CONTINUED EASTERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE DAY WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST TO REMAINED EVALUATED ALONG
THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY, DUE TO THE
EASTERLY WINDS.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH END
OF THE WEEK BEFORE INCREASING TO SCATTERED COVERAGE BY NEXT
WEEKEND, AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

$$
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good morning folks..7-day for tampa bay area.....
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Stephanie Abrams ‏@StephanieAbrams
Rapid City, South Dakota CRUSHED its daily snowfall record Tuesday! Yesterday they had 20" of snow...the old record was 3.6" in 1950!
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971. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE VICTORIA, CATEGORY THREE (17U)
3:10 PM WST April 10 2013
========================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Victoria (971 hPa) located at 15.6S 103.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 8 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
======================
15 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
90 NM from the center

Dvorak intensity: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 17.0S 103.9E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 18.5S 104.1E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 22.8S 105.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 28.6S 106.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=======================
Victoria has developed into a Severe Tropical Cyclone over open waters, well away from Cocos and Christmas Islands.

The system was located using enhanced infrared radar and visible imagery. A pin hole eye has been visible on microwave imagery since about 1100UTC Tuesday, with an eye pattern in the enhanced infrared radar Dvorak since 2230UTC Tuesday.

Dvorak: enhanced infrared radar images between 2230UTC and 0230UTC had an eye pattern with DT's of 5.5 with final Dvorak number constrained. Since 0330UTC Victoria has shown a weaker eye pattern or Embedded Center pattern and therefore reduced DT numbers. A 3 hour average gives a DT of 4.7. MET and PAT are both 4.5 with the final CI being set to 4.5.

There has been no update to the CIMSS AMSU or SATCON since 2000UTC Tuesday. Intensity then was 82 and 78 knots respectively [1 minute mean]. ADT is currently 80 knots [1 minute mean].

Due to the strong microwave signature on the microwave and a average DT above 4.5, final intensity has been set to 75 knots [10 minute mean].

CIMSS shear at 0600 UTC was north around 14 knots. As the system is moving generally southwards at around 8 knots, system-relative shear is low. There is also good poleward outflow.

The system may be at peak intensity with favourable ocean heat content and sea surface temperatures. Wind shear may increase as early as tonight or during Thursday causing Victoria to weaken. In addition, sea surface temperatures decrease further south with the 26C isotherm near 20.0S 105.0E. Intensity is held to 75 knots until 0000 UTC 11 April, after this Victoria is forecast to weaken rapidly.

General south to southeast motion is expected under the influence of an upper level ridge to the east and an approaching upper level trough.

The system is not expected to impact Cocos or Christmas Island or the Western Australian mainland.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
i this noted on the 18z that the gfs is forcasting are 1st E Pac name storm do you see it this off MX?





i all so noted we may see other ch at 384hrs


same place

If that's a tropical storm, so is the nameless feature west of the dateline.
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NH jury: Exxon Mobil owes $236M over gas chemical

By LYNNE TUOHY
The Associated Press

CONCORD, N.H. An order for Exxon Mobil to pay $236 million in damages for groundwater contamination is by far the largest verdict in state history but represents only about two days' worth of profit for the energy company, an industry analyst said.

http://www.whiotv.com/news/ap/business/nh-jury-ex xon-mobil-owes-236m-over-gas-chemical/nXHZd/
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966. Kumo
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
is this weather of the year 2013??
This winter season is not "normal" at all...

Nemo produced snowfall rates over 5" per hour, over 30" in Long Island in just hours. 40" in CT with thundersnow

Q and Rocky hit the same Plains area with heavy snow, thundersnow, blizzard and hurricane winds...

Sandy was half Hurricane/Half nor'easter at one point... Athena comes after dumping over 1 foot in CT

forecast of 15-30" of snow this year has been nearly a "normal thing"??? what?

what kind of winter is this? Year 2100? I don't even know... never seen this.

And severe weather alerts inside winter alerts?
Is nature trying to make us change our minds of what we have understood about these events?

severe weather followed by ice/snow



I do remember a November storm in my hometown of Amarillo, TX back in the late 90's or early 2000's. It started off as a heavy thunderstorm with very heavy downpours, then progressed through freezing rain, sleet and ended up with a good bit of snow. This all happened over a span of a few hours. Though I've never seen anything on the scale of what the Plains saw today.

It's times like this I really wish my grandparents were still alive. I seem to remember them mentioning a few crazy weather events happening back in the 20th century.

On the upside we had several freezing nights this Winter down in the Houston area, hopefully this will put a damper on the bug activity for the rest of the Spring.
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965. Skyepony (Mod)
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964. Skyepony (Mod)
1230 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 W MEDICINE PARK 34.73N 98.55W
04/10/2013 M59 MPH COMANCHE OK MESONET
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963. Skyepony (Mod)
0845 PM TORNADO 3 E BENKELMAN 40.05N 101.48W
04/08/2013 DUNDY NE NEWSPAPER

EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO A FARM AND FEED YARD...INCLUDING
DESTROYED BUILDINGS...GRAIN BINS...CARS AND TRUCKS. POWER
POLES AND LARGE TREES SNAPPED. DEBRIS HANGING ON POWER
LINES AND REMAINING TREES. NO INJURIES REPORTED TO
HUMANS...BUT TWO COWS WERE PUT DOWN.




Quoting KoritheMan:

Does time off from Walmart count? ;)

Of course:)
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Hey Taz,,, Check this out....

732hr

That looks like a TD

Same system at 768hrs. Could this be Hurricane Andrea??


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Quoting Skyepony:

Kori~ As long as you are celebrating something:)
Does time off from Walmart count? ;)
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Quoting stormchaser19:
At this hour Victoria is trying clear his tiny eye,but is really passing a bad time right now....THE POWER OF THE DRY AIR


?????
I would of thought Victoria was Male not Female. Tim was the last TC in that area so next is female.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
i this noted on the 18z that the gfs is forcasting are 1st E Pac name storm do you see it this off MX?





i all so noted we may see other ch at 384hrs


same place



How many hrs are those? anything more than 144hr is a waste of time looking at.
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958. Skyepony (Mod)
Fresh TRMM of Victoria. Smaller (but still big) movie. Caught the drier side.

Kori~ As long as you are celebrating something:)
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Quoting KoritheMan:
So... I turn 22 Thursday. Is it bad that I literally don't care at all, but am looking forward to hearing of Sandy's retirement, which will be announced within the next couple days, on a level infinitely greater than my birthday?


Depends on your personality, I guess. Personally, I don't care if Sandy gets retired, I would be more excited about a birthday than Sandy. Whatever floats your boat Kori.
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So... I turn 22 Thursday. Is it bad that I literally don't care at all, but am looking forward to hearing of Sandy's retirement, which will be announced within the next couple days, on a level infinitely greater than my birthday?
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Gnite everyone..awesome blogging night.

BTW... I have 85 bloggers listed in my chart, join it of you have not.
Go to my blog to check out the one from last Saturday.
I want to hit 100!...

The poll closes on August 1, 2013...you still have time to think and change your mind.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
At this hour Victoria is trying clear his tiny eye,but is really passing a bad time right now....THE POWER OF THE DRY AIR
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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