Europe expected to see a large increase in Hurricane Sandy-like hybrid storms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:18 PM GMT on April 08, 2013

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Watch out, Europe. Dangerous part-hurricane, part extratropical hybrid storms like Hurricane Sandy of 2012 are expected to be an increasing threat for Western Europe by the end of the century due to global warming, said a team of scientists led by Reindert J. Haarsma of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute. In a paper called "More hurricanes to hit Western Europe due to global warming", published in April 2013 in Geophysical Research Letters, the researchers describe the results from runs of a high-resolution (25 km grid spacing) climate model based on the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) numerical weather prediction model. The model predicts that the breeding ground for Atlantic hurricanes will shift approximately 700 miles eastwards as the oceans warm this century. Hurricanes which form farther to the east can spend more time over warm tropical waters before turning north and northeast towards Europe, increasing the odds that these storms will have hurricane-force winds upon arrival in Europe. The model showed that wind shear will change little in the region over the coming decades, resulting in a large increase in storms with hurricane-force winds affecting Western Europe. Most of the these storms will not be tropical hurricanes upon arrival in Europe, but will be former hurricanes that have transitioned to extratropical storms. However, as we saw with Hurricane Sandy of 2012, these hybrid storms can be extremely dangerous. Summed over Norway, the North Sea, and the Gulf of Biscay, the model found that the number of hurricane-force storms in August - October increased from 2 to 13 over the 21st century, with almost all future West European hurricane-force storms predicted to originate as hurricanes or tropical storms in the tropics by 2100. The researchers conclude that "tropical cyclones will increase the probability of present-day extreme events over the North Sea and the Gulf of Biscay with a factor of 5 and 25 respectively, with far reaching consequences especially for coastal safety."


Figure 1. Hurricane Sandy at 10:10 am EDT October 28, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Europe's hurricane history
Only once since accurate records began in 1851 has an actual hurricane with full tropical characteristics hit Europe. This happened on September 16, 1961, when Category 1 Hurricane Debbie hit northwestern Ireland. Wind gusts reached 106 mph at Ballykelly and 104 mph at Tiree and Snaefill, and coastal radio stations reported the airwaves were jammed with calls for help from small ships and fishing craft. Eleven people were killed and 50 injured in the storm. The only other tropical cyclone recorded to have hit Europe since 1851 was Hurricane Vince of 2005, which hit southern Spain as a tropical depression on October 11, 2005. Historical documents also suggest a hurricane hit Spain on October 29, 1842.


Figure 2. Hurricane Debbie of 1961 was the only fully tropical hurricane ever recorded to hit Europe.

Britain's history of ex-hurricane strikes
Hurricanes that transition to powerful extratropical storms hit the British Isles several times per decade, on average. In 2011, Hurricane Katia brushed by Newfoundland, made the transition from a tropical system to a powerful extratropical storm, and maintained strong winds of 50 - 65 mph as it crossed the Atlantic. Ex-Katia hit northern Scotland on September 12, 2011. Glen Ogle, Scotland, at an elevation of 1500 feet (546 meters), received sustained winds of 60 mph, gusting to 86 mph. Cairngorm, in the Scottish Highlands at an elevation of 4085 feet, reported sustained winds of 67 mph. With the trees in full leaf, tree damage was much higher than a winter or springtime storm of similar ferocity would have caused. One person was killed by a falling tree, and heavy tree damage and numerous power failures were reported throughout Britain. Other gusts experienced in Britain included 76 mph at Edinburgh Blackford Hill, 75 mph at Capel Curig in Wales, 72 mph at Glasgow Bishopton, and 71 mph at Loftus, North Yorkshire.


Figure 3. Image of Hurricane Katia taken from the International Space Station at 15 GMT September 9, 2011, by astronaut Ron Garan. At the time, Katia was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Long Island, New York is visible at the lower left.


Figure 4. Surface wind estimate from the Windsat satellite at 4:04 am EDT on Monday, September 12, 2011. The center of Extratropical Storm Katia is marked by an "L", and winds in excess of 50 knots (58 mph, purple triangles) were occurring to the southwest of the center, near the west coast of Ireland. Image credit: NOAA.

As reported by UK Met Office forecaster John Hammond in a post on the BBC 23 degrees blog, Britain has been affected at least eight times in the past twenty years by extratropical storms that were once tropical storms or hurricanes. Before Katia of 2011, the most recent such storm was Hurricane Bill of 2009, which hit Ireland as an extratropical storm on August 25 with sustained winds of 45 mph. Bill was a Category 4 hurricane northeast of the Lesser Antilles five days prior. In 2006, a record three extratropical storms that had once been tropical cyclones hit Britain:

Extratropical Storm Alberto, which had been a strong tropical storm that hit the Florida Panhandle, hit northern Ireland and Scotland as an extratropical storm with 35 mph winds.

Extratropical Storm Gordon hit Ireland on September 21, 2006, with sustained winds of 65 mph. Gordon brought record warm temperatures as tropical air pushed north across the UK, and also strong winds that brought down power lines in Northern Ireland. Wind gusts to 60 mph (97 km/h) occurred in the Isles of Scilly off the southwest coast, and 81 mph (130 km/h) on the mainland.

Extratropical Storm Helene hit Northwestern Ireland on September 27, 2006, with sustained winds of 45 mph.

Figure 5. Path of Hurricane Lili of 1996, which caused $420 million in damage to the U.K. as an extratropical storm.

Other post-tropical cyclones that have the U.K. in the past twenty years include Hurricanes Isaac and Leslie of 2000, Hurricane Karl of 1998, and Hurricane Lili of 1996. The most severe of these storms was Extratropical Storm Lili, which hit Ireland on October 28, 1996, with sustained winds of 65 mph. Lili caused $420 million in damage (2011 dollars) in the U.K. According to Wikipedia, Lili produced a 92 mph (148 km/h) gust at Swansea, South Wales, while bringing a 4' (1.2 meter) storm surge that inundated the River Thames. In Somerset, 500 holiday cottages were severely damaged. A U.S. oil drilling platform, under tow in the North Sea, broke loose during the storm and nearly ran aground at Peterhead. On the Isle of Wight, a sailing boat was beached at Chale Bay; luckily all five occupants were rescued. It was the most damaging storm to have struck the United Kingdom since the Great Storm of 1987, which killed 22 and did $660 million in damage (1996 dollars.) However, Lili also broke a four-month drought over southwest England.

All but one of these storms hit during the peak part of hurricane season, mid-August - late October. The only exception was Ex-Tropical Storm Alberto of 2006, which hit Britain in June.


Figure 6. Hybrid subtropical storm of October 8, 1996, off the coast of Italy. According to Reale and Atlas (2001), the storm had characteristics similar to a hurricane, but formed over cool waters of 21.5°C (71°F.) They reported that "The maximum damage due to wind occurred over the Aeolian Islands, at 38.5°N, 15°E, to the northeast of Sicily: assistance for disaster relief was required. Unfortunately, no weather station data were available, but the media reported sheds, roofs and harbor devices destroyed, and houses and electric lines damaged, due to 'extremely strong westerly wind.' The perfect agreement between the observations at Ustica, the storm scale, the eye-like feature position and the damages over the Aeolian Island reasonably suggest that the hurricane-level intensity of 32 m/s (72 mph) was reached over the Aeolian Islands." A similar hybrid low affected Algeria on 9 - 10 November 2001. This storm produced upwards of 270 mm (10.6") of rain, winds of 33 m/s (74 mph), and killed 737 people near Algiers, mostly from flooding and mud slides. Image credit: Dundee satellite receiving station.

Hurricanes in the Mediterranean Sea?
The Mediterranean Sea between Europe and Africa has experienced several damaging hybrid subtropical storms in recent decades, but has never experienced a fully tropical hurricane in recorded history. However, global warming may cause the Mediterranean to start spawning hurricanes by 2100, according to a 2007 study by a research team led by Miguel Angel Gaertner of the University of Castilla-La Mancha in Toledo, Spain. They ran nine different climate models with resolutions of about 50 km and found that some (but not all) of the models simulated hurricanes in the Mediterranean in September by the end of the century, when ocean temperature could increase by 3°C, reaching 30°C.

Though the Mediterranean may start seeing hurricanes by the end of the century, these storms should be rare and relatively short-lived for three reasons:

1) The Mediterranean is quite far north and is subject to strong wind shear from jet stream activity.

2) The waters are shallow, and have relatively low heat content. There is no deep warm water current like the Gulf Stream.

3) The Mediterranean has a lot of large islands and peninsulas poking into it, increasing the chances that a tropical storm would weaken when it encountered land.

References
Gaertner, M. A., D. Jacob, V. Gil, M. Dominguez, E. Padorno, E. Sanchez, and M. Castro (2007), Tropical cyclones over the Mediterranean Sea in climate change simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L14711, doi:10.1029/2007GL029977.

Haarsma et al., 2013, More hurricanes to hit Western Europe due to global warming, Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/grl.50360

Reale, O., and R. Atlas. 2001: Tropical Cyclone-Like Vortices in the Extratropics: Observational Evidence and Synoptic Analysis, Weather and Forecasting, 16, No. 1, pp. 7-34.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Luisport:
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue1 min
Both ECMWF and GFS take new Tropical Storm Imelda to major tropical cyclone strength w/pressures ~940 mb. Link


wow! Good thing Im still working on my map to reflect this.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue1 min
Both ECMWF and GFS take new Tropical Storm Imelda to major tropical cyclone strength w/pressures ~940 mb. Link
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Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


Well, I've spent a lot of time in that "river"... It's pretty swampy!!!
Me too...i love and miss it.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Maybe you'll get a June tropical storm down there. I think the drought in FL is too severe for afternoon thunderstorms to solve.



Actually that isn't that case, the NWS has noted before in more than one study that while tropical systems bring plenty of beneficial rain there isn't any statistical correlation between wetter and drier rainy seasons having or not having tropical cyclones.

In other words, you can't conclude that it will take a tropical cyclone to end the drought, because we have had plenty of very wet rainy seasons that weren't impacted much by tropical cyclones. Obviously they play an important role, but Florida's rainy season historically does not rely on them for drought relief.If that were the case, the climate here would be significantly drier because tropical cyclones are not reliable sources for rain, they can come and not come again for many years.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7447
This is coming from somebody that has lived in Orlando all my life. That's why when we have tropical systems hit C FL people scream at all the flooding and the reason for that is most areas of C FL were comprised of swamp land back in the 1960's and prior. Lake County was at one point the orange capital of North America.

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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


That is a very good point about the weaker systems doing the job of spoilers.

By the way,what is the latest from GFS and Euro on the NAO?
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Any of the Key's residents near the tornado last week?

Link


SURVEY SUMMARY: THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SURVEYED WIND DAMAGE
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE LONG BEACH ESTATES COMMUNITY ON BIG PINE KEY
AND FOUND THE DAMAGE PATTERN CONSISTENT WITH EF-0 TORNADO DAMAGE
WITH ESTIMATED 3-SECOND WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 75 AND 80 MPH.
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Quoting LargoFl:
Point made..........you want fighting in here..keep up the global warming talk. stick to current weather and storms


OK, It seems reasonable to fight about real important things, and the blog topic is tagged as "climate change". Never considered current weather to be very important, unless it was a storm.

Now, this graphs and what it implies, that's important.



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Quoting pcola57:


She was my favorite Mousekateer.. :(


My sympathies...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting kwgirl:
You obviously have not been here. Florida is not a swamp. The Everglades which takes up a lot of florida is a RIVER. Very wide and shallow river. Not to mention the springs, so yes, we have a lot of water, but it is not a swamp.


Well, I've spent a lot of time in that "river"... It's pretty swampy!!!

Even the University of Florida calls it "the Swamp"... Go Gators!!!
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Quoting kwgirl:
No, it wasn't. Disney bought up orange groves.


Disney was one big swamp in the 1960's. I know because my parents moved here in 1961 before Disney was even built and they said it was all swamp land before Mr. Disney came along. Northern and western areas of Orlando was mostly orange groves. However the area of SW Orange County was mostly swamp land from Universal down to Disney.
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Quoting kwgirl:
No, it wasn't. Disney bought up orange groves.




To avoid a burst of land speculation, Disney used various dummy corporations to acquire 27,443 acres (11,106 ha) of land.[2] In May 1965, some of these major land transactions were recorded a few miles southwest of Orlando in Osceola County. Also, two large tracts totaling $1.5 million were sold, and smaller tracts of flatlands and cattle pastures were purchased by exotic-sounding companies such as the Latin-American Development and Management Corporation and the Reedy Creek Ranch Corporation (Some of these names are now memorialized on a window above Main Street, U.S.A. in the Magic Kingdom). In addition to three huge parcels of land were many smaller parcels, referred to as "outs."
Much of the land acquired had been platted into 5-acre (2 ha) lots in 1912 by the Munger Land Company and sold to investors. Most owners were happy to get rid of the land, which was mostly swamp. Another issue was the mineral rights to the land, which were owned by Tufts University. Without the transfer of these rights, Tufts could come in at any time and demand the removal of buildings to obtain minerals. Eventually, Disney's team negotiated a deal with Tufts to buy the mineral rights for $15,000.[3]
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Quoting Levi32:


The CDAS analysis is even more lacking in a -PDO signal. I too wonder what has happened. The entire north Pacific is also bleeding atmospheric mass to the rest of the globe, another sign of a fading -PDO signal.



Monthly Ocean Briefing showed an anomalous anti-cyclone and supressed downwelling. May be related.





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Our water's not bad at all considering it comes through a 130 miles of pipe. It has even won Statewide awards.

Link

Link


"Award Winning Water!
or two consecutive years, the Aqueduct
has taken home top honors at the
Florida Section American Water Works
Association%u2019s Region VII, Best Tasting
Drinking Water Contest. The highly
competitive event is the largest Best Tasting
Drinking Water Contest in Florida and
provides the Aqueduct an opportunity to
demonstrate that our high-quality drinking
water tastes good too!"
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Quoting hydrus:
And fewer but stronger storms will have a more devastating impact in the long term. The weaker systems release some of the ocean heat, preventing larger and more intense systems..jmo


That is a very good point about the weaker systems doing the job of spoilers.

By the way,what is the latest from GFS and Euro on the NAO?
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Quoting LargoFl:
Point made..........you want fighting in here..keep up the global warming talk. stick to current weather and storms
Largo...who are you commenting on?
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Quoting ncstorm:
this is one time I dont mind posting the map with red in it..Sorry Texas




No need to be sorry, this Texan says bring on the warmth!

Although some accompanying rain would be very nice. Would take rain at the expense of warmth.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11668
Quoting pcola57:


She was my favorite Mousekateer.. :(
Spin & Marty
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Point made..........you want fighting in here..keep up the global warming talk. stick to current weather and storms
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Quoting Levi32:
109. "The more heat in the system, the more and stronger storms."

"More storms" is wrong according to current research, which actually suggests fewer storms. "Stronger storms" may be true.
And fewer but stronger storms will have a more devastating impact in the long term. The weaker systems release some of the ocean heat, preventing larger and more intense systems..jmo
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
On a sad note for us "older" folks... Annette Funicello has passed away at 70 years of age...


She was my favorite Mousekateer.. :(
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Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Orlando was built on a swamp as was Disney.
No, it wasn't. Disney bought up orange groves.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


If this continues it means that the most heat will be in the Pacific instead of the North Atlantic and that is the opposite of what the experts have been forecasting in their outlooks for the season. In other words a less active Atlantic and a more active EPAC season.


I would not go so far as to say that we are going to see the opposite of an above-average season on the Atlantic side this year (and particularly in an enso neutral year), but here is another article looking at that inverse relationship between the Pacific PDO and the Atlantic season (in terms of total storm days).

Another "layer"................ :)

The leading mode, which dominates the variability of the global total number of storm days,displays an east west contrast between enhanced activity in the North Pacific and reduced activity in the North Atlantic and a north south contrast in the Southern Hemisphere oceans between active tropics and inactive subtropics, which are coupled with the El Nino and a positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).

Link

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Quoting SouthTampa:
How do you know no one is fighting AGW? This is a blog where people discuss the science of weather and climate. You're going to encounter much more discussion on hows and whys than what one has done in their garden. Just the nature of the beast.

I've planted three trees so far this year - a mango, a lime and an avocado.


I planted a magnolia and a couple of new rosemary bushes two weeks ago and so far they are doing fine. The money tree on the other hand could use some Miracle Grow though :)
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Quoting kwgirl:
You obviously have not been here. Florida is not a swamp. The Everglades which takes up a lot of florida is a RIVER. Very wide and shallow river. Not to mention the springs, so yes, we have a lot of water, but it is not a swamp.


Also said Washington was more humid than TX, must of forgotten about coastal TX
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What is certain in the near term is the decrease in temperatures on the Tropical Atlantic.

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Any one have knowledge of this organization. My local city just left a message in my voice mail telling every one to sign up for this service.


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Quoting kwgirl:
You obviously have not been here. Florida is not a swamp. The Everglades which takes up a lot of florida is a RIVER. Very wide and shallow river. Not to mention the springs, so yes, we have a lot of water, but it is not a swamp.


Orlando was built on a swamp as was Disney.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Well if you think about it Florida is one big swamp.And being surrounded by water on three sides don't help the fact on humidity either where as in Texas they have dry heat.
You obviously have not been here. Florida is not a swamp. The Everglades which takes up a lot of florida is a RIVER. Very wide and shallow river. Not to mention the springs, so yes, we have a lot of water, but it is not a swamp.
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this is one time I dont mind posting the map with red in it..Sorry Texas



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Quoting Levi32:


If, but we have a long way to go before declaring this a long-term global pattern change. The CFS is still convinced things will start going back closer to the way they were in March by the end of this month.
What cause the PDO to change so dramatically in less than 2 weeks?
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Quoting LargoFl:
I am going to say this once again..you want to fight Global Warming?..plant tree's...we talk, we post yet no one..is fighting it..so what is the use..of talking about GW???....people sit there..posting away about global warmning...DO something ABOUT IT...nuff said.
How do you know no one is fighting AGW? This is a blog where people discuss the science of weather and climate. You're going to encounter much more discussion on hows and whys than what one has done in their garden. Just the nature of the beast.

I've planted three trees so far this year - a mango, a lime and an avocado.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


If this continues it means that the most heat will be in the Pacific instead of the North Atlantic and that is the opposite of what the experts have been forecasting in their outlooks for the season. In other words a less active Atlantic and a more active EPAC season.


If, but we have a long way to go before declaring this a long-term global pattern change. The CFS is still convinced things will start going back closer to the way they were in March by the end of this month.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Quoting Levi32:


The CDAS analysis is even more lacking in a -PDO signal. I too wonder what has happened. The entire Pacific is also bleeding atmospheric mass to the rest of the globe, another sign of a fading -PDO signal.



If this continues it means that the most heat will be in the Pacific instead of the North Atlantic and that is the opposite of what the experts have been forecasting in their outlooks for the season. In other words a less active Atlantic and a more active EPAC season.
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120. VR46L
Quoting barbamz:


I've once experienced your winds in Ireland in person, lol. In Sept 2001 I decided to walk to Hag's Head on the Cliffs of Moher during a very severe storm, and I was on my own. Boy, I was nearly blown down the brim and could reach the tower only by crawling on the ground (entering from the back site; it was not possible and moreover strictly forbidden to hike along the cliffs). Really scary, but exciting, too. And I was very determined to make it. I survived with a lot of scratches done by the barbed wires, into which I was blown more than only once, lol.



But nevertheless, TS Grace in 2009 was something special. I was very proud of our little European cyclone, lol.


That was probably Katia or Maria . Yes Grace so far north when the SST had to be too low was quite an event
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Quoting MississippiWx:
So yeah, what happened to the -PDO? It has almost vanished.



The CDAS analysis is even more lacking in a -PDO signal. I too wonder what has happened. The entire north Pacific is also bleeding atmospheric mass to the rest of the globe, another sign of a fading -PDO signal.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Reduced tornado probs to 5% for today. Not surprised.
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So yeah, what happened to the -PDO? It has almost vanished.

Current:



Week and a half ago:

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PLANTING TREE'S TO FIGHT GLOBAL WARMING..........

If done correctly then it will help reduce global warming, done incorrectly and it can make the problem worse.

It's important to understand that trees don't permanently remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere, they merely act as a temporary store. A tree grows by the process of photosynthesis and in this reaction carbon dioxide is removed from the atmosphere and converted into cellulose - the stuff that makes up most of the tree. However, when a tree is burned or is allowed to rot the stored carbon is released back into the atmosphere.

There are some trees however, which remove more CO2 from the atmosphere than they store, and fruit trees are a good example. So one small fruit tree will, in the long run, do more to help with global warming than a much bigger tree such as on oak.

Another important factor to consider is where the trees are planted. This can make a big difference to their effectiveness in combating global warming.

Earth has something called it's Albedo, you can think of this as the reflectivity of the Earth. Surfaces such as snow and ice reflect sunlight harmlessly back into space but darker surfaces such as the seas and soil absorb heat which contributes to global warming.

Because trees are generally dark in colour and have a large surface area they absorb a lot of heat from the Sun and so it's important to plant them in a place where the earth would absorb a lot of heat anyway. The ideal place for this is in the Equatorial regions. If you plant a tree in the more northerly or southerly latitudes it can actually contribute to global warming by absorbing more heat than would have been the case if it weren't there. To put it into some sort of perspective, the amount of heat absorbed and given off by a single average sized tree in a year is about the same amount of energy that an average house uses in 3 days.

So the ideal trees to plant are trees bearing fruits or nuts or that produce rubber, oils, resins etc and which are planted in the Equatorial regions. Over their lifetimes these trees will cause a net reduction in the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere.
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109. "The more heat in the system, the more and stronger storms."

"More storms" is wrong according to current research, which actually suggests fewer storms. "Stronger storms" may be true.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
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I am going to say this once again..you want to fight Global Warming?..plant tree's...we talk, we post yet no one..is fighting it..so what is the use..of talking about GW???....people sit there..posting away about global warmning...DO something ABOUT IT...nuff said.
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Love seeing those purple and reds out to my West, was hoping last weeks would shift that way, we didn't need the 4" it was showing, wanted to share the wealth!

Looks like it will be beautiful for the holiday in StL, opening day has high 70s w/ clouds. Stan the Man must have whispered in someone's ear! Won't be the same w/out him!
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amazing how it comes across the states like a wall huh...
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For all, the anti-GW people who keep writing, global climate change/warming is an inherent part of discussing tropical storms because tropical storms are a means of the climate dealing with excess heat. The more heat in the system, the more and stronger storms. This impacts the whole world not just the US. So Dr. Master's discussions are spot on in helping all of us understand this. It is reality for whatever causation. The generations over the next 100 years and more will deal with this one way or the other so awareness is critical. I am an amateur at meteorology but have many friends who are climate scientists at Los Alamos and have sat in on their discussions. They see the reality and don't even discuss if it is happening or not but what the long and short-term effects will be and what we can do to mitigate them. If you don't like what Dr. Master's is posting, just start your own blog and leave the rest of us alone.
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12Z Euro is showing temps in the low to mid 90's next week across FL with upper 80's across the Ohio Valley. Geesh. Winter to Summer in just 2 weeks.

This could be the Big Tornado Outbreak looming next week. Record heat vs. record cold perfect battle for severe weather.


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7-day for Tampa Bay area..better rain chances later in week..
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Euro is showing hot times ahead for the eastern US. Could have 80's all the way to New York come next Tuesday some 20 to 30 degrees above average if the Euro pans out.


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Quoting Hernando44:
Largo, Just got back on and haven't seen anything about our rain chances later this week. Do you have any info.?
hi, dry till wens then 20-30-40 percent chance of showers, probably the afternoon type,now sunday and monday IF this something does form in the gulf next week might be a better chance..way too early to tell..but almost summertime temps huh..shorts and T for sure
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.