Europe expected to see a large increase in Hurricane Sandy-like hybrid storms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:18 PM GMT on April 08, 2013

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Watch out, Europe. Dangerous part-hurricane, part extratropical hybrid storms like Hurricane Sandy of 2012 are expected to be an increasing threat for Western Europe by the end of the century due to global warming, said a team of scientists led by Reindert J. Haarsma of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute. In a paper called "More hurricanes to hit Western Europe due to global warming", published in April 2013 in Geophysical Research Letters, the researchers describe the results from runs of a high-resolution (25 km grid spacing) climate model based on the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) numerical weather prediction model. The model predicts that the breeding ground for Atlantic hurricanes will shift approximately 700 miles eastwards as the oceans warm this century. Hurricanes which form farther to the east can spend more time over warm tropical waters before turning north and northeast towards Europe, increasing the odds that these storms will have hurricane-force winds upon arrival in Europe. The model showed that wind shear will change little in the region over the coming decades, resulting in a large increase in storms with hurricane-force winds affecting Western Europe. Most of the these storms will not be tropical hurricanes upon arrival in Europe, but will be former hurricanes that have transitioned to extratropical storms. However, as we saw with Hurricane Sandy of 2012, these hybrid storms can be extremely dangerous. Summed over Norway, the North Sea, and the Gulf of Biscay, the model found that the number of hurricane-force storms in August - October increased from 2 to 13 over the 21st century, with almost all future West European hurricane-force storms predicted to originate as hurricanes or tropical storms in the tropics by 2100. The researchers conclude that "tropical cyclones will increase the probability of present-day extreme events over the North Sea and the Gulf of Biscay with a factor of 5 and 25 respectively, with far reaching consequences especially for coastal safety."


Figure 1. Hurricane Sandy at 10:10 am EDT October 28, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Europe's hurricane history
Only once since accurate records began in 1851 has an actual hurricane with full tropical characteristics hit Europe. This happened on September 16, 1961, when Category 1 Hurricane Debbie hit northwestern Ireland. Wind gusts reached 106 mph at Ballykelly and 104 mph at Tiree and Snaefill, and coastal radio stations reported the airwaves were jammed with calls for help from small ships and fishing craft. Eleven people were killed and 50 injured in the storm. The only other tropical cyclone recorded to have hit Europe since 1851 was Hurricane Vince of 2005, which hit southern Spain as a tropical depression on October 11, 2005. Historical documents also suggest a hurricane hit Spain on October 29, 1842.


Figure 2. Hurricane Debbie of 1961 was the only fully tropical hurricane ever recorded to hit Europe.

Britain's history of ex-hurricane strikes
Hurricanes that transition to powerful extratropical storms hit the British Isles several times per decade, on average. In 2011, Hurricane Katia brushed by Newfoundland, made the transition from a tropical system to a powerful extratropical storm, and maintained strong winds of 50 - 65 mph as it crossed the Atlantic. Ex-Katia hit northern Scotland on September 12, 2011. Glen Ogle, Scotland, at an elevation of 1500 feet (546 meters), received sustained winds of 60 mph, gusting to 86 mph. Cairngorm, in the Scottish Highlands at an elevation of 4085 feet, reported sustained winds of 67 mph. With the trees in full leaf, tree damage was much higher than a winter or springtime storm of similar ferocity would have caused. One person was killed by a falling tree, and heavy tree damage and numerous power failures were reported throughout Britain. Other gusts experienced in Britain included 76 mph at Edinburgh Blackford Hill, 75 mph at Capel Curig in Wales, 72 mph at Glasgow Bishopton, and 71 mph at Loftus, North Yorkshire.


Figure 3. Image of Hurricane Katia taken from the International Space Station at 15 GMT September 9, 2011, by astronaut Ron Garan. At the time, Katia was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Long Island, New York is visible at the lower left.


Figure 4. Surface wind estimate from the Windsat satellite at 4:04 am EDT on Monday, September 12, 2011. The center of Extratropical Storm Katia is marked by an "L", and winds in excess of 50 knots (58 mph, purple triangles) were occurring to the southwest of the center, near the west coast of Ireland. Image credit: NOAA.

As reported by UK Met Office forecaster John Hammond in a post on the BBC 23 degrees blog, Britain has been affected at least eight times in the past twenty years by extratropical storms that were once tropical storms or hurricanes. Before Katia of 2011, the most recent such storm was Hurricane Bill of 2009, which hit Ireland as an extratropical storm on August 25 with sustained winds of 45 mph. Bill was a Category 4 hurricane northeast of the Lesser Antilles five days prior. In 2006, a record three extratropical storms that had once been tropical cyclones hit Britain:

Extratropical Storm Alberto, which had been a strong tropical storm that hit the Florida Panhandle, hit northern Ireland and Scotland as an extratropical storm with 35 mph winds.

Extratropical Storm Gordon hit Ireland on September 21, 2006, with sustained winds of 65 mph. Gordon brought record warm temperatures as tropical air pushed north across the UK, and also strong winds that brought down power lines in Northern Ireland. Wind gusts to 60 mph (97 km/h) occurred in the Isles of Scilly off the southwest coast, and 81 mph (130 km/h) on the mainland.

Extratropical Storm Helene hit Northwestern Ireland on September 27, 2006, with sustained winds of 45 mph.

Figure 5. Path of Hurricane Lili of 1996, which caused $420 million in damage to the U.K. as an extratropical storm.

Other post-tropical cyclones that have the U.K. in the past twenty years include Hurricanes Isaac and Leslie of 2000, Hurricane Karl of 1998, and Hurricane Lili of 1996. The most severe of these storms was Extratropical Storm Lili, which hit Ireland on October 28, 1996, with sustained winds of 65 mph. Lili caused $420 million in damage (2011 dollars) in the U.K. According to Wikipedia, Lili produced a 92 mph (148 km/h) gust at Swansea, South Wales, while bringing a 4' (1.2 meter) storm surge that inundated the River Thames. In Somerset, 500 holiday cottages were severely damaged. A U.S. oil drilling platform, under tow in the North Sea, broke loose during the storm and nearly ran aground at Peterhead. On the Isle of Wight, a sailing boat was beached at Chale Bay; luckily all five occupants were rescued. It was the most damaging storm to have struck the United Kingdom since the Great Storm of 1987, which killed 22 and did $660 million in damage (1996 dollars.) However, Lili also broke a four-month drought over southwest England.

All but one of these storms hit during the peak part of hurricane season, mid-August - late October. The only exception was Ex-Tropical Storm Alberto of 2006, which hit Britain in June.


Figure 6. Hybrid subtropical storm of October 8, 1996, off the coast of Italy. According to Reale and Atlas (2001), the storm had characteristics similar to a hurricane, but formed over cool waters of 21.5°C (71°F.) They reported that "The maximum damage due to wind occurred over the Aeolian Islands, at 38.5°N, 15°E, to the northeast of Sicily: assistance for disaster relief was required. Unfortunately, no weather station data were available, but the media reported sheds, roofs and harbor devices destroyed, and houses and electric lines damaged, due to 'extremely strong westerly wind.' The perfect agreement between the observations at Ustica, the storm scale, the eye-like feature position and the damages over the Aeolian Island reasonably suggest that the hurricane-level intensity of 32 m/s (72 mph) was reached over the Aeolian Islands." A similar hybrid low affected Algeria on 9 - 10 November 2001. This storm produced upwards of 270 mm (10.6") of rain, winds of 33 m/s (74 mph), and killed 737 people near Algiers, mostly from flooding and mud slides. Image credit: Dundee satellite receiving station.

Hurricanes in the Mediterranean Sea?
The Mediterranean Sea between Europe and Africa has experienced several damaging hybrid subtropical storms in recent decades, but has never experienced a fully tropical hurricane in recorded history. However, global warming may cause the Mediterranean to start spawning hurricanes by 2100, according to a 2007 study by a research team led by Miguel Angel Gaertner of the University of Castilla-La Mancha in Toledo, Spain. They ran nine different climate models with resolutions of about 50 km and found that some (but not all) of the models simulated hurricanes in the Mediterranean in September by the end of the century, when ocean temperature could increase by 3°C, reaching 30°C.

Though the Mediterranean may start seeing hurricanes by the end of the century, these storms should be rare and relatively short-lived for three reasons:

1) The Mediterranean is quite far north and is subject to strong wind shear from jet stream activity.

2) The waters are shallow, and have relatively low heat content. There is no deep warm water current like the Gulf Stream.

3) The Mediterranean has a lot of large islands and peninsulas poking into it, increasing the chances that a tropical storm would weaken when it encountered land.

References
Gaertner, M. A., D. Jacob, V. Gil, M. Dominguez, E. Padorno, E. Sanchez, and M. Castro (2007), Tropical cyclones over the Mediterranean Sea in climate change simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L14711, doi:10.1029/2007GL029977.

Haarsma et al., 2013, More hurricanes to hit Western Europe due to global warming, Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/grl.50360

Reale, O., and R. Atlas. 2001: Tropical Cyclone-Like Vortices in the Extratropics: Observational Evidence and Synoptic Analysis, Weather and Forecasting, 16, No. 1, pp. 7-34.

Jeff Masters

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my sincere apologies for posting that HUGE post..maybe doc can delete that for me..again..i am sorry for that.
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203. VR46L
Quoting barbamz:


Even in the southern parts? Dr. M. didn't speak only about northern Europe but also about Spain and the Mediterranean. Water of ice melt wouldn't reach so far, or what do you think?


Dont Know but I do know Spain has had it as bad as the NW this past couple of seasons .... ours is blamed on the ice ... I dont know what Spains is blamed on . Even though I think my bad weather had more to do with an active Hurricane season and Active winter in the US
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Blizzard warning next to a severe thunderstorm watch..kinda weird
One comes after the other I know


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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Blizzard warning next to a severe thunderstorm watch..kinda weird
One comes after the other I know


Yeah, the NWS office mentioned a chance for large hail and a slight chance for tornadoes out on the plains today before things turn over to snow. The cell just west of Sterling looks like a hail producer...

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Quoting VR46L:



Naw the sea temps would have to climb around 10%uFFFDC.... and sure we are informed these days, as the arctic melts the water around Europe gets colder .




Even in the southern parts? Dr. M. didn't speak only about northern Europe but also about Spain and the Mediterranean. Water of ice melt wouldn't reach so far, or what do you think?

Edit: And of course, I was a little bit kidding about a new "EHC".
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198. VR46L
Quoting barbamz:


We'll have to create the EHC (European Hurricane Center), half lol ;-)



Naw the sea temps would have to climb around 10°C.... and sure we are informed these days, as the arctic melts the water around Europe gets colder .


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Blizzard warning next to a severe thunderstorm watch..kinda weird
One comes after the other I know

there are some overlapping too
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“By the mid-21st century the planet will face another little ice age similar to the Maunder Minimum [the previous little ice age], “Khabibullo Abduusamatov, head of the Russian space research laboratory told RIA Novosti in an interview January 22. He said this will occur, “…because the amount of solar radiation hitting the earth has been constantly decreasing since the 1990s and will reach its minimum approximately in 2041.”



Other scientists in the U.S. and other countries have made similar observations, Some predict a full blown ice age rather than the "little" variety is coming soon though most are not as specific about the date. These scientists have speculated that the next ice age may have already begun but we won’t be able to verify that until some years down the road. They note that before the era of recurring ice ages, the earth had 13 times as much atmospheric carbon dioxide as it has today and the climate was much warmer and more stable.
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@ LargoFl (#173)

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Question I have please..some of you are in Universities..I have read that the suns output will be at its lowest in 2025(by NASA)...now the last mini Ice age began is a similiar slowdown...2025 is NOT that far away huh...I am more afraid of the cold than heat...cold kills crops and feed for cattle etc...an extended cold spell such as another mini ice age could be disasterous for us.....can someone ask around about this solar slow down?
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From MD #400:

"A
MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT COULD ALSO MATERIALIZE BUT ONLY IF CELLS CAN
MAINTAIN STRENGTH INTO THE LOWER LCL ENVIRONMENT BEFORE CAPPING
DESTROYS THEM."


..Yep.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31919
RyanMaueRyan Maue 2 m

Gulf of Mexico opens for business tomorrow afternoon, plume of soup (high CAPE) enters Louisiana Link
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
good blog doc nice update work day is almost done
just finished reading the latest entry

so we get to add a couple of new basins to the threat zone the ne european atlantic basin the med basin


We'll have to create the EHC (European Hurricane Center), half lol ;-)
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Speaking of Imelda,no ssd floater yet.


I don't even think any more they are going to put it up
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Quoting ncstorm:
this is one time I dont mind posting the map with red in it..Sorry Texas




I wouldn't count on that coming true given this:

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


If this continues it means that the most heat will be in the Pacific instead of the North Atlantic and that is the opposite of what the experts have been forecasting in their outlooks for the season. In other words a less active Atlantic and a more active EPAC season.

I agree it may serve to focus more heat [compared to average] in the Pacific, but the Atlantic should remain warmer, even with a positive PDO (see 2005). Not really a huge effect on either hurricane seasons in terms of numbers.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31919
Quoting barbamz:


Yes, remarkable, because of the anomaly of displaced artic airmasses to southern parts in March, while it was too warm in the Arctic itself to say it plainly:



source with explanation




..yes i was just reading the London Telegraph..also there seems to be worry over food shortages in England and Europe Because of this late season cold spell..
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Quoting AGWcreationists:
http://opinion.financialpost.com/2013/04/01/were- not-screwed/

According to the scientists who originally published the alkenone series, the core tops varied in age from nearly the present to over a thousand years ago. Fewer than 10 of the original proxies had values for the 20th century. Had Marcott et al. used the end dates as calculated by the specialists who compiled the original data, there would have been no 20th-century uptick in their graph, as indeed was the case in Marcott’s PhD thesis. But Marcott et al. redated a number of core tops, changing the mix of proxies that contribute to the closing value, and this created the uptick at the end of their graph. Far from being a feature of the proxy data, it was an artifact of arbitrarily redating the underlying cores.

Worse, the article did not disclose this step. In their online supplementary information the authors said they had assumed the core tops were dated to the present “unless otherwise noted in the original publication.” In other words, they claimed to be relying on the original dating, even while they had redated the cores in a way that strongly influenced their results.

Meanwhile, in a private email to McIntyre, Marcott made a surprising statement. In the paper, they had reported doing an alternate analysis of their proxy data that yielded a much smaller 20th-century uptick, but they said the difference was “probably not robust,” which implied that the uptick was insensitive to changes in methodology, and was therefore reliable. But in his email to McIntyre, Marcott said the reconstruction itself is not robust in the 20th century: a very different thing. When this became public, the Marcott team promised to clear matters up with an online FAQ.

It finally appeared over the weekend, and contains a remarkable admission: “[The] 20th-century portion of our paleotemperature stack is not statistically robust, cannot be considered representative of global temperature changes, and therefore is not the basis of any of our conclusions.

Now you tell us! The 20th-century uptick was the focus of worldwide media attention, during which the authors made very strong claims about the implications of their findings regarding 20th-century warming. Yet at no point did they mention the fact that the 20th century portion of their proxy reconstruction is garbage.

The authors now defend their original claims by saying that if you graft a 20th-century thermometer record onto the end of their proxy chart, it exhibits an upward trend much larger in scale than that observed in any 100-year interval in their graph, supporting their original claims. But you can’t just graft two completely different temperature series together and draw a conclusion from the fact that they look different.
AGW..Sounds good to me, BUT get ready for the retaliation.... Happens all the time
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Please enlighten us as to how you came to the erroneous conclusion that "the latest hockey stick graph fell apart". I never miss a chance to educate, as a knowledgeable world is a better one. Thanks!
http://opinion.financialpost.com/2013/04/01/were- not-screwed/

According to the scientists who originally published the alkenone series, the core tops varied in age from nearly the present to over a thousand years ago. Fewer than 10 of the original proxies had values for the 20th century. Had Marcott et al. used the end dates as calculated by the specialists who compiled the original data, there would have been no 20th-century uptick in their graph, as indeed was the case in Marcott’s PhD thesis. But Marcott et al. redated a number of core tops, changing the mix of proxies that contribute to the closing value, and this created the uptick at the end of their graph. Far from being a feature of the proxy data, it was an artifact of arbitrarily redating the underlying cores.

Worse, the article did not disclose this step. In their online supplementary information the authors said they had assumed the core tops were dated to the present “unless otherwise noted in the original publication.” In other words, they claimed to be relying on the original dating, even while they had redated the cores in a way that strongly influenced their results.

Meanwhile, in a private email to McIntyre, Marcott made a surprising statement. In the paper, they had reported doing an alternate analysis of their proxy data that yielded a much smaller 20th-century uptick, but they said the difference was “probably not robust,” which implied that the uptick was insensitive to changes in methodology, and was therefore reliable. But in his email to McIntyre, Marcott said the reconstruction itself is not robust in the 20th century: a very different thing. When this became public, the Marcott team promised to clear matters up with an online FAQ.

It finally appeared over the weekend, and contains a remarkable admission: “[The] 20th-century portion of our paleotemperature stack is not statistically robust, cannot be considered representative of global temperature changes, and therefore is not the basis of any of our conclusions.

Now you tell us! The 20th-century uptick was the focus of worldwide media attention, during which the authors made very strong claims about the implications of their findings regarding 20th-century warming. Yet at no point did they mention the fact that the 20th century portion of their proxy reconstruction is garbage.

The authors now defend their original claims by saying that if you graft a 20th-century thermometer record onto the end of their proxy chart, it exhibits an upward trend much larger in scale than that observed in any 100-year interval in their graph, supporting their original claims. But you can’t just graft two completely different temperature series together and draw a conclusion from the fact that they look different.
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good blog doc nice update work day is almost done
just finished reading the latest entry

so we get to add a couple of new basins to the threat zone the ne european atlantic basin the med basin

wunder if the south atlantic basin below 0 degrees north will get in on more weird storms of hurricane type

hmmm

strange days indeed are coming in fact there already here sooner then most would like to believe
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53611
Quoting TomTaylor:
As I had commented earlier, those low-level March wind anomalies are responsible for the warming in the PDO signal.





Anomalous ridge was in place in the Gulf of Alaska with lower pressure over the subtropical NEPAC (where we usually see a ridge). Reversal of usual surface-low level wind flow will reverse the SSTA pattern. This pattern reversal was likely a symptom of the extreme blocking over the poles. Anybody remember when the AO tanked? AO reached -5.688 on the daily values. In the last 63 years (since 1950) there have only been 7 other negative AO events where the daily AO value was lower than it was on March 20th of 2013. What we saw on March 20th was something that probably only happens every one in 8-10 years.



The extreme negative AO event might be a good theory. However, if the change becomes semi-permanent, I think we will have to look elsewhere for a trigger. I doubt the AO can cause a long-term PDO flip, especially since the negative PDO phase in 2010 and 2011 remained robust despite almost as extreme of a negative AO in those winters, and for longer periods of time.
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Quoting LargoFl:
Late-season freeze sets Baltic ice record – Scientists say they have never seen anything like it.


Yes, remarkable, because of the anomaly of displaced artic airmasses to southern parts in March, while it was too warm in the Arctic itself to say it plainly:



source with explanation




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Quoting Jedkins01:


lol there are so many videos on Youtube of strong thunderstorms scaring tourists at Disney and send them scattering for cover like its the end of the world, summer is not the time of year to be at Disney... lol

Although they do have some great water parks, and if you get to them early, you often have at least a few hours of sun earlier before the clouds and thunderstorms move in.
Jedkins... When my daughter was very young and we went to Disney... (for her summer birthday) The only relief I could find was riding "It's a small World" It was cooling and no wait...But if you ever sing that song to me there will be some hostile actions....LOL
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Link Loop
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Latest on Imelda...

*Today is 8-APRIL-13... sorry for that error

click image for larger view


Speaking of Imelda,no ssd floater yet.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


lol there are so many videos on Youtube of strong thunderstorms scaring tourists at Disney and send them scattering for cover like its the end of the world, summer is not the time of year to be at Disney... lol

Although they do have some great water parks, and if you get to them early, you often have at least a few hours of sun earlier before the clouds and thunderstorms move in.


I have told this story a few times in past years; I was at an Orlando hotel in August for a Conference a few years ago when a typical afternoon t-storm spun up. Was in pool lounge having a drink and some German tourists, who ran in from the pool area as the winds and boomers hit, were asking me whether it was a hurricane..........The Father even looked like one of the guitarists from the Scorpions ("Rock You Like a Hurricane")............ :)
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Latest on Imelda...

*Today is 8-APRIL-13... sorry for that error

click image for larger view
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Quoting wxchaser97:

I'm going to Disney this year during Christmas break. I actually want the strong afternoon summertime storms and potential hurricanes. If I was going in the summer, then I would have a way better chance of seeing those two things instead of during winter. Of course, I'm not like a lot of people who don't like those things.


haha you and me both, as a weather enthusiast living in Florida most of my life, I like seeing the activity when I go on a vacation to Disney with my family. I know the summer weather here so well I know what time of day to go where you can still get plenty of time during the same day as you see thunderstorms. Of course there are periodic washout days during the summer where thunderstorms aren't just sea breeze driven, but most of the time you can enjoy plenty of sun at the parks on the same day that you see violent thunderstorms. That of course is my favorite type of weather.

More than likely you won't see anything like that during December, although there is the occasional strong squall line in the winter, but they certainly aren't reliable events. Besides, thunderstorm events with frontal systems are never as exciting to me as the sea breeze driven activity here in the summer. The exception to that of course is tornadoes during severe weather outbreaks.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7404
Quoting AGWcreationists:

Well, after the latest hockey stick graph fell apart, I guess this is the AGW spin du jour.
I do not believe AGW is having that much of an impact on sports equipment and the like..Even if it does begin to spin a bit...
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Why Walt Disney Built a Theme Park on Swampland
Okay so I should say "majority" of Florida is made out of swamp..someone has gone a little over board..>.>.

I mean just look at it!.It must be hard to live in hurricane alley.

Your right I'm not a native and I only visited for a few days and that was 2 years ago.
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Late-season freeze sets Baltic ice record – Scientists say they have never seen anything like it.

“Since record keeping began in the sixties, we’ve never encountered anything like this before,” ice breaker Ulf Gulldne told the local newspaper Örnsköldsviks Allehanda.

On March 29th, 176,000 square kilometers of the Baltic Sea was covered in ice, a record for the time of year.

“I’ve never seen this much ice this late in the season,” said Karl Herlin, captain of the icebreaker Atle, currently working off the coast of Luleå in northern Sweden.

This past week has been the busiest week for the Atle so far this winter.

The Swedish Maritime Administration (Sjöfartsverket) has all its five icebreaking crews in service at the moment.

“The cold is unusually stubborn, as normally the ice would have started to melt by now,” said Torbjörn Grafström at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI).

Forecasters had expected the Baltic ice to reach its maximum in late January,

http://www.thelocal.se/47154/20130405/#.UWAi7ZNJO 30

http://notrickszone.com/2013/04/06/baltic-sea-set s-march-ice-record-never-seen-this-much-ice-this-l ate-in-the-season/
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Quoting StormTrackerScott:
7 Day precip map just updated and it's good news for FL. Could be a wet April in FL if this can continue week after week.




Rain totals may end up being more significant as a majority of the rainfall will be sea breeze generated, as we all know, global models don't realize the scope of the diurnal thunderstorm pattern very well in Florida. Often QPF from models that is 0.25 to 0.50 which is often showed by models with summer thunderstorm events in reality comes out to 1 to 2 inches with local spots seeing much more.

There will be a front stalling somewhere over Florida around late in the period. Once it washes out it the upper level flow will still send upper disturbances that will enhance sea breeze activity by proving colder air aloft.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7404
Quoting AGWcreationists:

Well, after the latest hockey stick graph fell apart, I guess this is the AGW spin du jour.
Please enlighten us as to how you came to the erroneous conclusion that "the latest hockey stick graph fell apart". I never miss a chance to educate, as a knowledgeable world is a better one. Thanks!
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A watch is possible for parts of Kansas and Colorado.

Mesoscale Discussion #400
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Both are not in the big positive camp,only slightly at this point.
I noticed that..It will be interesting to see what happens in week or so.
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As I had commented earlier, the low-level wind anomalies we saw in March are responsible for the warming in the PDO signal.





Anomalous ridge was in place in the Gulf of Alaska with lower pressure over the subtropical NEPAC (where we usually see a ridge). Reversal of usual surface-low level wind flow will reverse the SSTA pattern. This pattern reversal was likely a symptom of the extreme blocking over the poles. Anybody remember when the AO tanked? AO reached -5.688 on the daily values. In the last 63 years (since 1950) there have only been 7 other negative AO events where the daily AO value was lower than it was on March 20th of 2013. What we saw on March 20th was something that probably only happens every one in 8-10 years.

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Underwater volcanoes heating Antarctic waters

Newly discovered volcanoes almost two miles tall





11 Jul 2011 - Scientists from the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) have discovered previously unknown volcanoes in the ocean waters around the remote South Sandwich Islands.


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Quoting Jedkins01:


lol there are so many videos on Youtube of strong thunderstorms scaring tourists at Disney and send them scattering for cover like its the end of the world, summer is not the time of year to be at Disney... lol

Although they do have some great water parks, and if you get to them early, you often have at least a few hours of sun earlier before the clouds and thunderstorms move in.

I'm going to Disney this year during Christmas break. I actually want the strong afternoon summertime storms and potential hurricanes. If I was going in the summer, then I would have a way better chance of seeing those two things instead of during winter. Of course, I'm not like a lot of people who don't like those things.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
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164. VR46L
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
7 Day precip map just updated and it's good news for FL. Could be a wet April in FL if this can continue week after week.



Looks to me like its great news for everyone except CA and SW Texas
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Quoting hydrus:


Both are not in the big positive camp,only slightly at this point.
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7 Day precip map just updated and it's good news for FL. Could be a wet April in FL if this can continue week after week.

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Quoting yonzabam:
I'm not at all convinced by this particular global warming prediction. We may see more remnants, but we won't get anything like Sandy.

Well, after the latest hockey stick graph fell apart, I guess this is the AGW spin du jour.
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Scott.You live in one of the hottest cities I have ever been in... Inland Florida can get miserably hot... Heck with the big mouse in the summertime.


lol there are so many videos on Youtube of strong thunderstorms scaring tourists at Disney and send them scattering for cover like its the end of the world, summer is not the time of year to be at Disney... lol

Although they do have some great water parks, and if you get to them early, you often have at least a few hours of sun earlier before the clouds and thunderstorms move in.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7404
48hr QPF for Friday and Saturday.

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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Any of the Key's residents near the tornado last week?

Link


SURVEY SUMMARY: THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SURVEYED WIND DAMAGE
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE LONG BEACH ESTATES COMMUNITY ON BIG PINE KEY
AND FOUND THE DAMAGE PATTERN CONSISTENT WITH EF-0 TORNADO DAMAGE
WITH ESTIMATED 3-SECOND WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 75 AND 80 MPH.


About 6 miles to my East. Very minor damage.
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Quoting Luisport:
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue1 min
Both ECMWF and GFS take new Tropical Storm Imelda to major tropical cyclone strength w/pressures ~940 mb. Link


wow! Good thing Im still working on my map to reflect this.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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