Europe expected to see a large increase in Hurricane Sandy-like hybrid storms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:18 PM GMT on April 08, 2013

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Watch out, Europe. Dangerous part-hurricane, part extratropical hybrid storms like Hurricane Sandy of 2012 are expected to be an increasing threat for Western Europe by the end of the century due to global warming, said a team of scientists led by Reindert J. Haarsma of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute. In a paper called "More hurricanes to hit Western Europe due to global warming", published in April 2013 in Geophysical Research Letters, the researchers describe the results from runs of a high-resolution (25 km grid spacing) climate model based on the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) numerical weather prediction model. The model predicts that the breeding ground for Atlantic hurricanes will shift approximately 700 miles eastwards as the oceans warm this century. Hurricanes which form farther to the east can spend more time over warm tropical waters before turning north and northeast towards Europe, increasing the odds that these storms will have hurricane-force winds upon arrival in Europe. The model showed that wind shear will change little in the region over the coming decades, resulting in a large increase in storms with hurricane-force winds affecting Western Europe. Most of the these storms will not be tropical hurricanes upon arrival in Europe, but will be former hurricanes that have transitioned to extratropical storms. However, as we saw with Hurricane Sandy of 2012, these hybrid storms can be extremely dangerous. Summed over Norway, the North Sea, and the Gulf of Biscay, the model found that the number of hurricane-force storms in August - October increased from 2 to 13 over the 21st century, with almost all future West European hurricane-force storms predicted to originate as hurricanes or tropical storms in the tropics by 2100. The researchers conclude that "tropical cyclones will increase the probability of present-day extreme events over the North Sea and the Gulf of Biscay with a factor of 5 and 25 respectively, with far reaching consequences especially for coastal safety."


Figure 1. Hurricane Sandy at 10:10 am EDT October 28, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Europe's hurricane history
Only once since accurate records began in 1851 has an actual hurricane with full tropical characteristics hit Europe. This happened on September 16, 1961, when Category 1 Hurricane Debbie hit northwestern Ireland. Wind gusts reached 106 mph at Ballykelly and 104 mph at Tiree and Snaefill, and coastal radio stations reported the airwaves were jammed with calls for help from small ships and fishing craft. Eleven people were killed and 50 injured in the storm. The only other tropical cyclone recorded to have hit Europe since 1851 was Hurricane Vince of 2005, which hit southern Spain as a tropical depression on October 11, 2005. Historical documents also suggest a hurricane hit Spain on October 29, 1842.


Figure 2. Hurricane Debbie of 1961 was the only fully tropical hurricane ever recorded to hit Europe.

Britain's history of ex-hurricane strikes
Hurricanes that transition to powerful extratropical storms hit the British Isles several times per decade, on average. In 2011, Hurricane Katia brushed by Newfoundland, made the transition from a tropical system to a powerful extratropical storm, and maintained strong winds of 50 - 65 mph as it crossed the Atlantic. Ex-Katia hit northern Scotland on September 12, 2011. Glen Ogle, Scotland, at an elevation of 1500 feet (546 meters), received sustained winds of 60 mph, gusting to 86 mph. Cairngorm, in the Scottish Highlands at an elevation of 4085 feet, reported sustained winds of 67 mph. With the trees in full leaf, tree damage was much higher than a winter or springtime storm of similar ferocity would have caused. One person was killed by a falling tree, and heavy tree damage and numerous power failures were reported throughout Britain. Other gusts experienced in Britain included 76 mph at Edinburgh Blackford Hill, 75 mph at Capel Curig in Wales, 72 mph at Glasgow Bishopton, and 71 mph at Loftus, North Yorkshire.


Figure 3. Image of Hurricane Katia taken from the International Space Station at 15 GMT September 9, 2011, by astronaut Ron Garan. At the time, Katia was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Long Island, New York is visible at the lower left.


Figure 4. Surface wind estimate from the Windsat satellite at 4:04 am EDT on Monday, September 12, 2011. The center of Extratropical Storm Katia is marked by an "L", and winds in excess of 50 knots (58 mph, purple triangles) were occurring to the southwest of the center, near the west coast of Ireland. Image credit: NOAA.

As reported by UK Met Office forecaster John Hammond in a post on the BBC 23 degrees blog, Britain has been affected at least eight times in the past twenty years by extratropical storms that were once tropical storms or hurricanes. Before Katia of 2011, the most recent such storm was Hurricane Bill of 2009, which hit Ireland as an extratropical storm on August 25 with sustained winds of 45 mph. Bill was a Category 4 hurricane northeast of the Lesser Antilles five days prior. In 2006, a record three extratropical storms that had once been tropical cyclones hit Britain:

Extratropical Storm Alberto, which had been a strong tropical storm that hit the Florida Panhandle, hit northern Ireland and Scotland as an extratropical storm with 35 mph winds.

Extratropical Storm Gordon hit Ireland on September 21, 2006, with sustained winds of 65 mph. Gordon brought record warm temperatures as tropical air pushed north across the UK, and also strong winds that brought down power lines in Northern Ireland. Wind gusts to 60 mph (97 km/h) occurred in the Isles of Scilly off the southwest coast, and 81 mph (130 km/h) on the mainland.

Extratropical Storm Helene hit Northwestern Ireland on September 27, 2006, with sustained winds of 45 mph.

Figure 5. Path of Hurricane Lili of 1996, which caused $420 million in damage to the U.K. as an extratropical storm.

Other post-tropical cyclones that have the U.K. in the past twenty years include Hurricanes Isaac and Leslie of 2000, Hurricane Karl of 1998, and Hurricane Lili of 1996. The most severe of these storms was Extratropical Storm Lili, which hit Ireland on October 28, 1996, with sustained winds of 65 mph. Lili caused $420 million in damage (2011 dollars) in the U.K. According to Wikipedia, Lili produced a 92 mph (148 km/h) gust at Swansea, South Wales, while bringing a 4' (1.2 meter) storm surge that inundated the River Thames. In Somerset, 500 holiday cottages were severely damaged. A U.S. oil drilling platform, under tow in the North Sea, broke loose during the storm and nearly ran aground at Peterhead. On the Isle of Wight, a sailing boat was beached at Chale Bay; luckily all five occupants were rescued. It was the most damaging storm to have struck the United Kingdom since the Great Storm of 1987, which killed 22 and did $660 million in damage (1996 dollars.) However, Lili also broke a four-month drought over southwest England.

All but one of these storms hit during the peak part of hurricane season, mid-August - late October. The only exception was Ex-Tropical Storm Alberto of 2006, which hit Britain in June.


Figure 6. Hybrid subtropical storm of October 8, 1996, off the coast of Italy. According to Reale and Atlas (2001), the storm had characteristics similar to a hurricane, but formed over cool waters of 21.5°C (71°F.) They reported that "The maximum damage due to wind occurred over the Aeolian Islands, at 38.5°N, 15°E, to the northeast of Sicily: assistance for disaster relief was required. Unfortunately, no weather station data were available, but the media reported sheds, roofs and harbor devices destroyed, and houses and electric lines damaged, due to 'extremely strong westerly wind.' The perfect agreement between the observations at Ustica, the storm scale, the eye-like feature position and the damages over the Aeolian Island reasonably suggest that the hurricane-level intensity of 32 m/s (72 mph) was reached over the Aeolian Islands." A similar hybrid low affected Algeria on 9 - 10 November 2001. This storm produced upwards of 270 mm (10.6") of rain, winds of 33 m/s (74 mph), and killed 737 people near Algiers, mostly from flooding and mud slides. Image credit: Dundee satellite receiving station.

Hurricanes in the Mediterranean Sea?
The Mediterranean Sea between Europe and Africa has experienced several damaging hybrid subtropical storms in recent decades, but has never experienced a fully tropical hurricane in recorded history. However, global warming may cause the Mediterranean to start spawning hurricanes by 2100, according to a 2007 study by a research team led by Miguel Angel Gaertner of the University of Castilla-La Mancha in Toledo, Spain. They ran nine different climate models with resolutions of about 50 km and found that some (but not all) of the models simulated hurricanes in the Mediterranean in September by the end of the century, when ocean temperature could increase by 3°C, reaching 30°C.

Though the Mediterranean may start seeing hurricanes by the end of the century, these storms should be rare and relatively short-lived for three reasons:

1) The Mediterranean is quite far north and is subject to strong wind shear from jet stream activity.

2) The waters are shallow, and have relatively low heat content. There is no deep warm water current like the Gulf Stream.

3) The Mediterranean has a lot of large islands and peninsulas poking into it, increasing the chances that a tropical storm would weaken when it encountered land.

References
Gaertner, M. A., D. Jacob, V. Gil, M. Dominguez, E. Padorno, E. Sanchez, and M. Castro (2007), Tropical cyclones over the Mediterranean Sea in climate change simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L14711, doi:10.1029/2007GL029977.

Haarsma et al., 2013, More hurricanes to hit Western Europe due to global warming, Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/grl.50360

Reale, O., and R. Atlas. 2001: Tropical Cyclone-Like Vortices in the Extratropics: Observational Evidence and Synoptic Analysis, Weather and Forecasting, 16, No. 1, pp. 7-34.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Blizzard warning next to a severe thunderstorm watch..kinda weird
One comes after the other I know

there are some overlapping too
April in the Rockies my friend. Severe thunderstorms followed by blizzards as little as a few hours later or less sometimes.
Member Since: March 29, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 314
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CAPE in northwestern Oklahoma is more than more than sufficient for severe weather and tornadoes. All that is needed is upper-air forcing to break the cap. Today would be significant if no cap was in place.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31911
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Quoting stormchaser19:
2005


2013

SOOOOO SIMILAR.
Putting out my April 2013 Hurricane Outlook tomorrow.
Member Since: October 3, 2010 Posts: 40 Comments: 4129
Reached 77 degrees here today... Now thats the spring I was looking forward to
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3727
The Denver obs are strange. The pressure was 29.37" at 1 p.m. and 29.51" at 2 p.m. and 29.31" at 3 p.m. That's a pretty big oscillation.
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Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Fair enough. But a weak tropical storm moving across the peninsula this June wouldn't hurt!



For sure! I was just being technical, lol.

BTW, it seems like we often do get tropical systems following droughts, like last year with Debby.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7401
If global warming was occurring, there would be fewer hurricanes, not more because you need cold air to mix with the warm for cyclogenesis... meteorology 101. With warming theory, there is a reduced, not increased contrast in air masses, which has not been observed. If anything, there is more air contrast. GW asserts the poles are warming, I assert that not all the data is being used, and the colder readings are being left out by the IPCC.

I've seen TV shows that blame volcanic activity in Iceland on GW, which is preposterous. They claim the ice melts off the volcanic dome, allowing the eruptions to occur. Yeah. It has nothing to do with the molten lava sitting under the ice, right? The most ridiculous claims are blamed on GW with absolutely no common sense.

Get me a consistent weather forecast that doesn't have to be changed once or twice or more in a 12-hour period. Doesn't happen, yet they claim man is for sure responsible for GW. This isn't science, but a fiasco.

I expect a lot of East Coast hurricane activity this year, little if any will reach Europe. Also, some of the worst June weather on record occurred in Europe during D-Day era. Weather goes through natural cycles and shifts constantly. Sorry, that's common sense.

If GW were real, I would certainly be sounding off to stop it, but I see only phony reports and real data being censored, so can't go along with it. We have more technology to identify hurricanes now than before 1979, so naturally we will see more hurricanes. Occurrences that have been going on all along, only were previously not observed. Common sense.
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A warm front has definitely went through my area over the past couple hours. The temperature went from 50F to 60F in about 2 hours and skies have cleared a little. Wundermap shows this clearly when focusing in on the Detroit, MI area. Oh and I recorded 0.16" of rain from this morning's round of showers. It may not sound like much, but after a dry March I want some rain. A lot more looks to be in store this week.
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But Denver does show up on wunderground. Denver slightly outdid their temp forecast today, 72 so far vs the forecast of 69. From 70s to snow is freaky!
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There have been no current obs for most Colorado stations the past few hours. That's annoying!
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Quoting Jedkins01:



Actually that isn't that case, the NWS has noted before in more than one study that while tropical systems bring plenty of beneficial rain there isn't any statistical correlation between wetter and drier rainy seasons having or not having tropical cyclones.

In other words, you can't conclude that it will take a tropical cyclone to end the drought, because we have had plenty of very wet rainy seasons that weren't impacted much by tropical cyclones. Obviously they play an important role, but Florida's rainy season historically does not rely on them for drought relief.If that were the case, the climate here would be significantly drier because tropical cyclones are not reliable sources for rain, they can come and not come again for many years.


Fair enough. But a weak tropical storm moving across the peninsula this June wouldn't hurt!
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Quoting barbamz:
Warm rain rings in spring
Published: 8 Apr 13 15:31 CET
Germany welcomed springtime on Monday, as winter finally gave up its icy grip on the country. The DWD weather service forecast temperatures in the mid-20s by the weekend, but not without rain.
Whole article

Yeah! Today I've moved my potted plants outside to the terrace-balcony once again. The third attempt this year. May it work out this time! And the rain is welcomed in my area.

And this aspect is very important for my region as well. Asparagus!

Bad weather behind asparagus price hike
Published: 6 Apr 13 10:13 CET



Good night with this from Germany.




The Dark Side of Asparagus
I've never had grilled asparagus but I think I'll try it.
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Quoting barbamz:
Warm rain rings in spring
Published: 8 Apr 13 15:31 CET
Germany welcomed springtime on Monday, as winter finally gave up its icy grip on the country. The DWD weather service forecast temperatures in the mid-20s by the weekend, but not without rain.
Whole article

Yeah! Today I've moved my potted plants outside to the terrace-balcony once again. The third attempt this year. May it work out this time! And the rain is welcomed in my area.

And this aspect is very important for my region as well. Asparagus!

Bad weather behind asparagus price hike
Published: 6 Apr 13 10:13 CET



Good night with this from Germany.


Wales still doesn't seem to have given up the cold, so glad for you! LOL

Been sunny and feels ok in that sun, but still that bitter wind prevails. Gotten stronger tonight and been howling down the chimney. Maybe warmer by the weekend though...supposed to 50'...heatwave! haha
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Miami NWS Disco

Which model will win out?

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE POWERFUL MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AT MID WEEK WILL SHIFT EAST BY WEEKS END. THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE HOWEVER TO DISAGREE ON A SOLUTION FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. BOTH
MODELS KEEP US MOSTLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SLOWLY INCREASING LOW
LEVEL HUMIDITY AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE EAST. THIS IS WHERE THE TWO MODELS BEGIN
TO DIVERGE. THE GFS HAS BEEN NEARLY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS IN BRINGING THE FRONT TO SOUTH FLORIDA TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND. THE 12Z RUN IS NO EXCEPTION WITH FRONT STALLING ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY WITH THE PWAT INCREASING TO MORE THAN TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORMAL FOR APRIL AND THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE TO SUPPORT A HIGHER CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE
00Z RUN ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS THE FRONT STALLING NORTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH THE PWAT MUCH LESS AND THE ATMOSPHERE ONLY
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE. THUS, WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
APPROACH AND WAIT FOR MORE CONSISTENCY.

For West Palm Beach...

Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11111
Quoting MrMixon:




I'm confused... had someone expressed a concern about all life on the Earth going extinct sometime soon? Whose argument are you two countering here?


They are countering their own strawman.

Please reference the research showing CO2 being 13 times more dense in the atmosphere than it is currently.

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Quoting LargoFl:
PLANTING TREE'S TO FIGHT GLOBAL WARMING..........

If done correctly then it will help reduce global warming, done incorrectly and it can make the problem worse.


Your post is loaded with unsubstantiated assertions and assumptions.

The incorrect planting of "tree's" making global warming worse? Please back up your statements with actual work.
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Quoting AGWcreationists:


13 times, eh?

Yet life didn't go extinct.


Quoting RTSplayer:


And on the contrary, the largest land-based animals in the known history of the planet thrived.


I'm confused... had someone expressed a concern about all life on the Earth going extinct sometime soon? Whose argument are you two countering here?
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Quoting AGWcreationists:


13 times, eh?

Yet life didn't go extinct.


And on the contrary, the largest land-based animals in the known history of the planet thrived.
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The latest GFS snow prediction puts us solidly in the 12-15" range:



(fingers crossed...)
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Warm rain rings in spring
Published: 8 Apr 13 15:31 CET
Germany welcomed springtime on Monday, as winter finally gave up its icy grip on the country. The DWD weather service forecast temperatures in the mid-20s by the weekend, but not without rain.
Whole article

Yeah! Today I've moved my potted plants outside to the terrace-balcony once again. The third attempt this year. May it work out this time! And the rain is welcomed in my area.

And this aspect is very important for my region as well. Asparagus!

Bad weather behind asparagus price hike
Published: 6 Apr 13 10:13 CET



Good night with this from Germany.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Up to 45kts.

WTXS31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (IMELDA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (IMELDA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 11.0S 63.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S 63.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 11.3S 61.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 11.7S 60.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 12.2S 59.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 13.0S 58.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 14.6S 59.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 16.2S 59.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 18.2S 60.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 11.1S 63.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (IMELDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 755 NM
NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE
FIXES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND A 081531Z SSMIS PASS. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS SET SLIGHTLY ABOVE A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES BASED ON STRUCTURE
EVIDENT IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND HIGHER AUTOMATED INTENSITY
ESTIMATES. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION FLARING OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS PASS. TC 21S LIES SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, IN AN AREA OF MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING WESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. TC 21S WILL
TURN POLEWARD AFTER TAU 36 AS MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR RELAXES AND
THE CYCLONE PASSES ACROSS WARM WATER. ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AFTER
TAU 36 WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF FASTER INTENSIFICATION BEFORE
INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR USHERS IN SLOW WEAKENING.
ALTHOUGH DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS FORECAST SCENARIO, SPREAD IN THE SHARPNESS OF THE POLEWARD TURN
REMAINS. THIS TREND IS ALSO NOTED IN ENSEMBLE MODEL PRODUCTS. BASED
ON THIS SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE, THERE IS DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
081800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z AND 092100Z.//
NNNN

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14224
Kinda looks like that storm moving into Wyoming is trying to develop a hook, but only basing that on a few radar frames:

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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53582
Quoting LargoFl:
my sincere apologies for posting that HUGE post..maybe doc can delete that for me..again..i am sorry for that.


personally, I feel no need to apologize, was a good post. Just weird the way it spaced out is all! LOL
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In case you missed this on the Portlight Relief Fund blog:

We are proud to announce that Portlight has been awarded a $250,000 grant from the Hurricane Sandy New Jersey Relief Fund! This fund is overseen by New Jersey governor Chris Christie’s wife, Mary Pat, who made the formal announcement Thursday morning:

"We are very excited today to announce 15 more grants to aid in the recovery effort in New Jersey. These grants focus on housing assistance, reconstruction, mold remediation, and important financial and legal counseling services, among others," said First Lady Mary Pat Christie, Chair of the Fund. "It's an honor to partner with these wonderful organizations that are on the ground providing services for Sandy victims. This support is only made possible by the generosity of tens of thousands of individual and corporate donors who answered the call to help total strangers in need. We'll have additional grant awards soon and look forward to continuing to be an ongoing resource over the long term for New Jersey's recovery effort."

My comment: Mrs Christie was getting some flack because her charity had not dispersed funds ( in comparison, say, to the relief effort from the 12-12-12 concert) but it's great that the money is going out and that Portlight has received some. Very deserved!

And if this is old news to you, well .... Good news bears repeating :-)
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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Jedkins... When my daughter was very young and we went to Disney... (for her summer birthday) The only relief I could find was riding "It's a small World" It was cooling and no wait...But if you ever sing that song to me there will be some hostile actions....LOL



Don't worry, I think my reactions to that song are right on par with yours!
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7401
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


I have told this story a few times in past years; I was at an Orlando hotel in August for a Conference a few years ago when a typical afternoon t-storm spun up. Was in pool lounge having a drink and some German tourists, who ran in from the pool area as the winds and boomers hit, were asking me whether it was a hurricane..........The Father even looked like one of the guitarists from the Scorpions ("Rock You Like a Hurricane")............ :)



lol :)
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7401
Quoting Xandra:
@ LargoFl (#173)



Funny how any comments on that video have to be approved... Nice way to crush any attempt at disagreement.
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:

I wonder when we'll see this again.



Hurricane Huron (I had to look it up)
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Quoting AGWcreationists:
http://opinion.financialpost.com/2013/04/01/were- not-screwed/
.......................
AGW - given some of your expressed positions, it's ironic that the article you cite is written by a professed creationist:
McKitrick is a signatory to the Cornwall Alliance's Evangelical Declaration on Global Warming,[9] which states that "Earth and its ecosystems – created by God's intelligent design and infinite power and sustained by His faithful providence – are robust, resilient, self-regulating, and self-correcting". Link
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Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
The ESPI is at -0.17
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14224
2005


2013
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2158
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
215. Skyepony (Mod)
Yay! TRMM website is back online.

TRMM pass about 5hrs ago, through the middle of IMELDA. Click pic for very large quicktime.. Couple of hot towers in there.
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Blog hole?
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In Southern Ontario, we have quite a bit of heavy rain showers coming through, and the rain expected over the next few days could prove monsoon-like. According to my twitter, there is a high tornado risk tonight over parts of Oklahoma and Kansas.
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Quoting LargoFl:
my sincere apologies for posting that HUGE post..maybe doc can delete that for me..again..i am sorry for that.


No worries, just edit your comment and delete everything after the fourth paragraph. That includes all the "[Random article]...X days ago" stuff.

I wonder when we'll see this again.

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211. Skyepony (Mod)
IMELDA
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Quoting LargoFl:
my sincere apologies for posting that HUGE post..maybe doc can delete that for me..again..i am sorry for that.


Just hit the "Modify comment" button beneath your post and delete it by yourself, or isn't it working?
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209. ARiot
Quoting LargoFl:
“By the mid-21st century the planet will face another little ice age similar to the Maunder Minimum [the previous little ice age], “Khabibullo Abduusamatov, head of the Russian space research laboratory told RIA Novosti in an interview January 22. He said this will occur, “…because the amount of solar radiation hitting the earth has been constantly decreasing since the 1990s and will reach its minimum approximately in 2041.”



Other scientists in the U.S. and other countries have made similar observations, Some predict a full blown ice age rather than the "little" variety is coming soon though most are not as specific about the date. These scientists have speculated that the next ice age may have already begun but we won’t be able to verify that until some years down the road. They note that before the era of recurring ice ages, the earth had 13 times as much atmospheric carbon dioxide as it has today and the climate was much warmer and more stable.


http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/131047.pdf

"A survey of peer reviewed scientific papers from 1965 to 1979 show that few papers predicted global cooling (7 in total). Significantly more papers (42 in total) predicted global warming (Peterson 2008, link above). The large majority of climate research in the 1970s predicted the Earth would warm as a consequence of CO2."

No new ice age on the time horizon that we need concern ourselves with.
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Quoting LargoFl:
my sincere apologies for posting that HUGE post..maybe doc can delete that for me..again..i am sorry for that.


You should be able to edit it yourself to remove the extra spaces/lines.
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Quoting Levi32:


The extreme negative AO event might be a good theory. However, if the change becomes semi-permanent, I think we will have to look elsewhere for a trigger. I doubt the AO can cause a long-term PDO flip, especially since the negative PDO phase in 2010 and 2011 remained robust despite almost as extreme of a negative AO in those winters, and for longer periods of time.
Im sure there's more going on. Conditions in one area are the result of the conditions in all the other areas combined. Everything influences everything else in some way or another, the important part is finding the relative strength or significance of the influence.

With that said, I'd say a near-record negative AO likely has a pretty strong influence.
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Quoting LargoFl:
They note that before the era of recurring ice ages, the earth had 13 times as much atmospheric carbon dioxide as it has today and the climate was much warmer and more stable.


13 times, eh?

Yet life didn't go extinct.
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:


I have told this story a few times in past years; I was at an Orlando hotel in August for a Conference a few years ago when a typical afternoon t-storm spun up. Was in pool lounge having a drink and some German tourists, who ran in from the pool area as the winds and boomers hit, were asking me whether it was a hurricane..........The Father even looked like one of the guitarists from the Scorpions ("Rock You Like a Hurricane")............ :)


Oh, the poor german tourists in Florida, lol. As much as I've read they are often the target of some local humour. But they may deserve it in some way as I can imagine the behaviour of my travelling country fellowmen.
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my sincere apologies for posting that HUGE post..maybe doc can delete that for me..again..i am sorry for that.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.