Europe expected to see a large increase in Hurricane Sandy-like hybrid storms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:18 PM GMT on April 08, 2013

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Watch out, Europe. Dangerous part-hurricane, part extratropical hybrid storms like Hurricane Sandy of 2012 are expected to be an increasing threat for Western Europe by the end of the century due to global warming, said a team of scientists led by Reindert J. Haarsma of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute. In a paper called "More hurricanes to hit Western Europe due to global warming", published in April 2013 in Geophysical Research Letters, the researchers describe the results from runs of a high-resolution (25 km grid spacing) climate model based on the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) numerical weather prediction model. The model predicts that the breeding ground for Atlantic hurricanes will shift approximately 700 miles eastwards as the oceans warm this century. Hurricanes which form farther to the east can spend more time over warm tropical waters before turning north and northeast towards Europe, increasing the odds that these storms will have hurricane-force winds upon arrival in Europe. The model showed that wind shear will change little in the region over the coming decades, resulting in a large increase in storms with hurricane-force winds affecting Western Europe. Most of the these storms will not be tropical hurricanes upon arrival in Europe, but will be former hurricanes that have transitioned to extratropical storms. However, as we saw with Hurricane Sandy of 2012, these hybrid storms can be extremely dangerous. Summed over Norway, the North Sea, and the Gulf of Biscay, the model found that the number of hurricane-force storms in August - October increased from 2 to 13 over the 21st century, with almost all future West European hurricane-force storms predicted to originate as hurricanes or tropical storms in the tropics by 2100. The researchers conclude that "tropical cyclones will increase the probability of present-day extreme events over the North Sea and the Gulf of Biscay with a factor of 5 and 25 respectively, with far reaching consequences especially for coastal safety."


Figure 1. Hurricane Sandy at 10:10 am EDT October 28, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Europe's hurricane history
Only once since accurate records began in 1851 has an actual hurricane with full tropical characteristics hit Europe. This happened on September 16, 1961, when Category 1 Hurricane Debbie hit northwestern Ireland. Wind gusts reached 106 mph at Ballykelly and 104 mph at Tiree and Snaefill, and coastal radio stations reported the airwaves were jammed with calls for help from small ships and fishing craft. Eleven people were killed and 50 injured in the storm. The only other tropical cyclone recorded to have hit Europe since 1851 was Hurricane Vince of 2005, which hit southern Spain as a tropical depression on October 11, 2005. Historical documents also suggest a hurricane hit Spain on October 29, 1842.


Figure 2. Hurricane Debbie of 1961 was the only fully tropical hurricane ever recorded to hit Europe.

Britain's history of ex-hurricane strikes
Hurricanes that transition to powerful extratropical storms hit the British Isles several times per decade, on average. In 2011, Hurricane Katia brushed by Newfoundland, made the transition from a tropical system to a powerful extratropical storm, and maintained strong winds of 50 - 65 mph as it crossed the Atlantic. Ex-Katia hit northern Scotland on September 12, 2011. Glen Ogle, Scotland, at an elevation of 1500 feet (546 meters), received sustained winds of 60 mph, gusting to 86 mph. Cairngorm, in the Scottish Highlands at an elevation of 4085 feet, reported sustained winds of 67 mph. With the trees in full leaf, tree damage was much higher than a winter or springtime storm of similar ferocity would have caused. One person was killed by a falling tree, and heavy tree damage and numerous power failures were reported throughout Britain. Other gusts experienced in Britain included 76 mph at Edinburgh Blackford Hill, 75 mph at Capel Curig in Wales, 72 mph at Glasgow Bishopton, and 71 mph at Loftus, North Yorkshire.


Figure 3. Image of Hurricane Katia taken from the International Space Station at 15 GMT September 9, 2011, by astronaut Ron Garan. At the time, Katia was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Long Island, New York is visible at the lower left.


Figure 4. Surface wind estimate from the Windsat satellite at 4:04 am EDT on Monday, September 12, 2011. The center of Extratropical Storm Katia is marked by an "L", and winds in excess of 50 knots (58 mph, purple triangles) were occurring to the southwest of the center, near the west coast of Ireland. Image credit: NOAA.

As reported by UK Met Office forecaster John Hammond in a post on the BBC 23 degrees blog, Britain has been affected at least eight times in the past twenty years by extratropical storms that were once tropical storms or hurricanes. Before Katia of 2011, the most recent such storm was Hurricane Bill of 2009, which hit Ireland as an extratropical storm on August 25 with sustained winds of 45 mph. Bill was a Category 4 hurricane northeast of the Lesser Antilles five days prior. In 2006, a record three extratropical storms that had once been tropical cyclones hit Britain:

Extratropical Storm Alberto, which had been a strong tropical storm that hit the Florida Panhandle, hit northern Ireland and Scotland as an extratropical storm with 35 mph winds.

Extratropical Storm Gordon hit Ireland on September 21, 2006, with sustained winds of 65 mph. Gordon brought record warm temperatures as tropical air pushed north across the UK, and also strong winds that brought down power lines in Northern Ireland. Wind gusts to 60 mph (97 km/h) occurred in the Isles of Scilly off the southwest coast, and 81 mph (130 km/h) on the mainland.

Extratropical Storm Helene hit Northwestern Ireland on September 27, 2006, with sustained winds of 45 mph.

Figure 5. Path of Hurricane Lili of 1996, which caused $420 million in damage to the U.K. as an extratropical storm.

Other post-tropical cyclones that have the U.K. in the past twenty years include Hurricanes Isaac and Leslie of 2000, Hurricane Karl of 1998, and Hurricane Lili of 1996. The most severe of these storms was Extratropical Storm Lili, which hit Ireland on October 28, 1996, with sustained winds of 65 mph. Lili caused $420 million in damage (2011 dollars) in the U.K. According to Wikipedia, Lili produced a 92 mph (148 km/h) gust at Swansea, South Wales, while bringing a 4' (1.2 meter) storm surge that inundated the River Thames. In Somerset, 500 holiday cottages were severely damaged. A U.S. oil drilling platform, under tow in the North Sea, broke loose during the storm and nearly ran aground at Peterhead. On the Isle of Wight, a sailing boat was beached at Chale Bay; luckily all five occupants were rescued. It was the most damaging storm to have struck the United Kingdom since the Great Storm of 1987, which killed 22 and did $660 million in damage (1996 dollars.) However, Lili also broke a four-month drought over southwest England.

All but one of these storms hit during the peak part of hurricane season, mid-August - late October. The only exception was Ex-Tropical Storm Alberto of 2006, which hit Britain in June.


Figure 6. Hybrid subtropical storm of October 8, 1996, off the coast of Italy. According to Reale and Atlas (2001), the storm had characteristics similar to a hurricane, but formed over cool waters of 21.5°C (71°F.) They reported that "The maximum damage due to wind occurred over the Aeolian Islands, at 38.5°N, 15°E, to the northeast of Sicily: assistance for disaster relief was required. Unfortunately, no weather station data were available, but the media reported sheds, roofs and harbor devices destroyed, and houses and electric lines damaged, due to 'extremely strong westerly wind.' The perfect agreement between the observations at Ustica, the storm scale, the eye-like feature position and the damages over the Aeolian Island reasonably suggest that the hurricane-level intensity of 32 m/s (72 mph) was reached over the Aeolian Islands." A similar hybrid low affected Algeria on 9 - 10 November 2001. This storm produced upwards of 270 mm (10.6") of rain, winds of 33 m/s (74 mph), and killed 737 people near Algiers, mostly from flooding and mud slides. Image credit: Dundee satellite receiving station.

Hurricanes in the Mediterranean Sea?
The Mediterranean Sea between Europe and Africa has experienced several damaging hybrid subtropical storms in recent decades, but has never experienced a fully tropical hurricane in recorded history. However, global warming may cause the Mediterranean to start spawning hurricanes by 2100, according to a 2007 study by a research team led by Miguel Angel Gaertner of the University of Castilla-La Mancha in Toledo, Spain. They ran nine different climate models with resolutions of about 50 km and found that some (but not all) of the models simulated hurricanes in the Mediterranean in September by the end of the century, when ocean temperature could increase by 3°C, reaching 30°C.

Though the Mediterranean may start seeing hurricanes by the end of the century, these storms should be rare and relatively short-lived for three reasons:

1) The Mediterranean is quite far north and is subject to strong wind shear from jet stream activity.

2) The waters are shallow, and have relatively low heat content. There is no deep warm water current like the Gulf Stream.

3) The Mediterranean has a lot of large islands and peninsulas poking into it, increasing the chances that a tropical storm would weaken when it encountered land.

References
Gaertner, M. A., D. Jacob, V. Gil, M. Dominguez, E. Padorno, E. Sanchez, and M. Castro (2007), Tropical cyclones over the Mediterranean Sea in climate change simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L14711, doi:10.1029/2007GL029977.

Haarsma et al., 2013, More hurricanes to hit Western Europe due to global warming, Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/grl.50360

Reale, O., and R. Atlas. 2001: Tropical Cyclone-Like Vortices in the Extratropics: Observational Evidence and Synoptic Analysis, Weather and Forecasting, 16, No. 1, pp. 7-34.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Xyrus2000:
blockquote class='blogquote'>Quoting AGWcreationists:
http://opinion.financialpost.com/2013/04/01/were- not-screwed/

*Much additional garbage deleted*



You're quoting and OPINION piece from a source with a well know ANTI-SCIENCE bias when it comes to all things climate. None of their claims are backed up by any sort of reviewed science, let alone any means or measure to reproduce their so-called claims.

In other words, by scientific standards, that article is fanciful bovine excrement.

Let's clarify by what is meant by evidence when it comes to science. Evidence to support a hypothesis (in order for the hypothesis to be established as theory) must be able to be reproduced and stand up to scrutiny by other experts in the field. The means, methods, and data must all be validated. This is accomplished through formal peer review of the research, which any Ph.D can tell you is not an easy process and can take some time to complete (months to years).

On the scale of scientific evidence, opinion pieces in financial rags rank just a bit higher than supermarket tabloids about "Yeti Found In Seattle!".

So when Nea asks what evidence you have to back up your claims, he's looking for peer reviewed science articles in well respected research periodicals (think Nature), not what some random blogger throws up on the web.

I hope that clarifies things.




I respond by saying HAARP!
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Point taken. ;)

Thanks for the advice, Cody. Love you too.


Awwww... this calls for a group hug...

Don't mind my stench, I haven't touched water in days... (Teh Sarcasm)
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Quoting KoritheMan:
So I'm thinking of joining the Air Force. I see no real downsides to the military (feel free to point them out if I overlooked them, though), and considering the crap I regularly deal with at Walmart, I don't see why I couldn't deal with high ranking military. I won't try and enlist until after my cousin gets married in January, but that's what I've set my sights and goals on. Unfortunately, since I was homeschooled and had to take a GED, I require a minimum of 15 college hours from an accredited university. Not real worried about it though, and I'm not going to set a deadline; all I was say is, hopefully next year. Either way, there's no futility in trying, right?

I reckon it's one of the most lucrative ways to get into the field of meteorology, so why not?
Nash Roberts was one of the best mets here in Louisiana. He honed his skills in the Navy and was usually dead on with storm forcasting long before computer modeling. Can't never go wrong with military training. Best of luck to you.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

My entire family consists of police officers, army soldiers, and/or airmen. I've had this conversation with my older brothers a few times over the past few years. One thing is that the military isn't for everybody. You have to be fit, both physically and mentally. You're "property" of the government, meaning if they say you do something, you do it. You're typically away from your family for long periods of time, and you don't have the luxury of alone time anymore. Not to mention there's always the possibility of getting hurt severely and/or dying.

But other than that, no disadvantages. ;)


Point taken. ;)

Thanks for the advice, Cody. Love you too.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
So I'm thinking of joining the Air Force. I see no real downsides to the military (feel free to point them out if I overlooked them, though), and considering the crap I regularly deal with at Walmart, I don't see why I couldn't deal with high ranking military. I won't try and enlist until after my cousin gets married in January, but that's what I've set my sights and goals on. Unfortunately, since I was homeschooled and had to take a GED, I require a minimum of 15 college hours from an accredited university. Not real worried about it though, and I'm not going to set a deadline; all I was say is, hopefully next year. Either way, there's no futility in trying, right?

I reckon it's one of the most lucrative ways to get into the field of meteorology, so why not?

My entire family consists of police officers, army soldiers, and/or airmen. I've had this conversation with my older brothers a few times over the past few years. One thing is that the military isn't for everybody. You have to be fit, both physically and mentally. You're "property" of the government, meaning if they say you do something, you do it. You're typically away from your family for long periods of time, and you don't have the luxury of alone time anymore. Not to mention there's always the possibility of getting hurt severely and/or dying.

But other than that, no disadvantages. ;)
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32354
Quoting KoritheMan:


Thanks, Isaac. Love ya, brother.

And I haven't forgotten about the results of our wager... ;)

You're welcome Kori! Love ya back <3

I'm still waiting for that... I will come down there eventually if I don't get it ;)

Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Guess what?
I got bored and put my whole report together for my April Outlook for the 2013 Hurricane Season. Posting it pretty soon. Just finishing it up now...

I'm going to wait until Wednesday to release mine since CSU releases their numbers then. I will like to read yours.
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Guess what?
I got bored and put my whole report together for my April Outlook for the 2013 Hurricane Season. Posting it pretty soon. Just finishing it up now...
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Quoting Doppler22:
Darn... Isaac!

:)
Sounds like it was a brief landspout, nothing to big. That cell doesn't look too good.
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Quoting KoritheMan:
So I'm thinking of joining the Air Force. I see no real downsides to the military (feel free to point them out if I overlooked them, though), and considering the crap I regularly deal with at Walmart, I don't see why I couldn't deal with high ranking military. I won't try and enlist until after my cousin gets married in January, but that's what I've set my sights and goals on. Unfortunately, since I was homeschooled and had to take a GED, I require a minimum of 15 college hours from an accredited university. Not real worried about it though, and I'm not going to set a deadline; all I was say is, hopefully next year. Either way, there's no futility in trying, right?

I reckon it's one of the most lucrative ways to get into the field of meteorology, so why not?
Hello Kori.... The military is an excellent way to go, and will probably pay more than W-Mart plus better benefits for you right from the start. The raises are even decent, and if you do your 20 years, a tidy retirement pension. My best friends bro just finished his twenty and is digging it beautifully..:)....YEARS
OF
SERVICE RANK
Enlisted members enter as an E-1 (Airman Basic) or higher depending on education, prior service, etc. and are subsequently promoted up through the ranks.
E-1
Airman Basic E-2
Airman E-3
Airman
First Class E-4
Senior Airman E-5
Staff
Sergeant E-6
Technical
Sergeant E-7
Master Sergeant E-8
Senior Master
Sergeant E-9
Chief Master
Sergeant

RANGE $17,892 $20,056 $21,089 -
$23,774 $23,360 -
$28,357 $25,481 -
$36,155 $27,814 -
$43,078 $32,155 -
$57,791 $46,256 -
$65,974 $56,506 -
$87,732
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21507
Quoting wxchaser97:


I'd say do it. I think you are capable of doing that Kori. As long as you are able to still pursue meteorology I think you'll be fine. You know of my own things that I want to pursue and you have assured me to do what I want to do. If you want to do it, then do it.


Thanks, Isaac. Love ya, brother.

And I haven't forgotten about the results of our wager... ;)
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Quoting KoritheMan:
So I'm thinking of joining the Air Force. I see no real downsides to the military (feel free to point them out if I overlooked them, though), and considering the crap I regularly deal with at Walmart, I don't see why I couldn't deal with high ranking military. I won't try and enlist until after my cousin gets married in January, but that's what I've set my sights and goals on. Unfortunately, since I was homeschooled and had to take a GED, I require a minimum of 15 college hours from an accredited university. Not real worried about it though, and I'm not going to set a deadline; all I was say is, hopefully next year. Either way, there's no futility in trying, right?

I reckon it's one of the most lucrative ways to get into the field of meteorology, so why not?


I'd say do it. I think you are capable of doing that Kori. As long as you are able to still pursue meteorology I think you'll be fine. You know of my own things that I want to pursue and you have assured me to do what I want to do. If you want to do it, then do it.
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Darn... Isaac!
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-
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WFUS53 KGLD 090023
TORGLD
COC125-090045-
/O.NEW.KGLD.TO.W.0003.130409T0023Z-130409T0045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
623 PM MDT MON APR 8 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN YUMA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...

* UNTIL 645 PM MDT

* AT 619 PM MDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BONNY
RESERVOIR...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL
OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HALE.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 36 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 217 AND 221.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN
INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID
WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE
CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
GOODLAND.

&&

LAT...LON 3973 10205 3957 10206 3957 10217 3957 10227
3977 10218
TIME...MOT...LOC 0023Z 206DEG 11KT 3961 10214

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

THEDE
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Eagerly awaiting the "blizzard" here in Colorado. Last time we were under a blizzard warning, we ended up with a dusting and 3"-5" drifts...if you can call them that :-P Not expecting much in the way of accumulation this time either...upslope flow is not impressive. We shall see.
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So I'm thinking of joining the Air Force. I see no real downsides to the military (feel free to point them out if I overlooked them, though), and considering the crap I regularly deal with at Walmart, I don't see why I couldn't deal with high ranking military. I won't try and enlist until after my cousin gets married in January, but that's what I've set my sights and goals on. Unfortunately, since I was homeschooled and had to take a GED, I require a minimum of 15 college hours from an accredited university. Not real worried about it though, and I'm not going to set a deadline; all I was say is, hopefully next year. Either way, there's no futility in trying, right?

I reckon it's one of the most lucrative ways to get into the field of meteorology, so why not?
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287. beell

RAP 700mb Temps-21Z


RAP 700mb Temps-23Z

Click any image to open in new window

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Todays temps here were 57.6/69.7 Forecast 67 normal 49/74 Tied down all the outside window coverings as it is gonna get windy tonight. Should be getting warmer from here.

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285. beell
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
The Denver obs are strange. The pressure was 29.37" at 1 p.m. and 29.51" at 2 p.m. and 29.31" at 3 p.m. That's a pretty big oscillation.


NWS KDEN Obs history is a bit different.
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Still keeping an eye out for destabilization along and ahead of the dryline, but so far, the cap is holding strong. May not take too much more boundary layer heating in Kansas, but is there enough daylight left?

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11670
Quoting Xyrus2000:
blockquote class='blogquote'>Quoting AGWcreationists:
http://opinion.financialpost.com/2013/04/01/were- not-screwed/

*Much additional garbage deleted*



You're quoting and OPINION piece from a source with a well know ANTI-SCIENCE bias when it comes to all things climate. None of their claims are backed up by any sort of reviewed science, let alone any means or measure to reproduce their so-called claims.

In other words, by scientific standards, that article is fanciful bovine excrement.

Let's clarify by what is meant by evidence when it comes to science. Evidence to support a hypothesis (in order for the hypothesis to be established as theory) must be able to be reproduced and stand up to scrutiny by other experts in the field. The means, methods, and data must all be validated. This is accomplished through formal peer review of the research, which any Ph.D can tell you is not an easy process and can take some time to complete (months to years).

On the scale of scientific evidence, opinion pieces in financial rags rank just a bit higher than supermarket tabloids about "Yeti Found In Seattle!".

So when Nea asks what evidence you have to back up your claims, he's looking for peer reviewed science articles in well respected research periodicals (think Nature), not what some random blogger throws up on the web.

I hope that clarifies things.
I figured AGW proponents would find a way to ignore the findings by attempting to discredit the source. Typical.

However, the words I bolded are from the authors of the study in question. Care to address those?
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
hey you guys...I just added the names into my chart...
we can make over 100 predictions from you!
I just need 17 more
...lol, check it out next Saturday

Almost a month has gone by after I started with this poll...
thanks to all.
bbl.
I will go with 11-7-4
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280. VR46L
Quoting bappit:
For anyone interested, Coursera offers a number of free online courses related to common topics of discussion on this blog. Here is a link to available courses.

You can take a course and do the assignments or just chill out and audit. I have audited a number of Coursera classes, and it really depends on the course on whether or not doing the work is worthwhile or not. Some classes are made on the cheap, and some are the product of thought and planning. Sometimes the thought and planning is off target, but it is free--except for the time and effort you put into it.

That's something certain knuckleheads taking/running the classes need to understand. These courses really are never truly free. Sort of like the people who ignore the negative externalities of CO2 ("free" disposal of CO2 into the air), but guess what? I learned about negative externalities in one of these courses. There's more to be had there for the matey who is patient. Arrrrgh.


Thanks for the info !!

I have been doing some of the the Met ed - Comet courses which are free . but have been finding it difficult to decide which to do first , but am currently working through the sat -radar modules and when I finish those I intend to move on to the tropical modules . but some of these might be interesting to take too
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6932
First the "Iron Lady" and now a Disney icon...

'Mickey Mouse Club' original Annette Funicello dies
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11323
Quoting Xyrus2000:
blockquote class='blogquote'>Quoting AGWcreationists:
em

My favorite is "UFO Fleets Blitz Earth".
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6061
For anyone interested, Coursera offers a number of free online courses related to common topics of discussion on this blog. Here is a link to available courses.

You can take a course and do the assignments or just chill out and audit. I have audited a number of Coursera classes, and it really depends on the course on whether or not doing the work is worthwhile or not. Some classes are made on the cheap, and some are the product of thought and planning. Sometimes the thought and planning is off target, but it is free--except for the time and effort you put into it.

That's something certain knuckleheads taking/running the classes need to understand. These courses really are never truly free. Sort of like the people who ignore the negative externalities of CO2 ("free" disposal of CO2 into the air), but guess what? I learned about negative externalities in one of these courses. There's more to be had there for the matey who is patient. Arrrrgh.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6061
blockquote class='blogquote'>Quoting AGWcreationists:
http://opinion.financialpost.com/2013/04/01/were- not-screwed/

*Much additional garbage deleted*



You're quoting and OPINION piece from a source with a well know ANTI-SCIENCE bias when it comes to all things climate. None of their claims are backed up by any sort of reviewed science, let alone any means or measure to reproduce their so-called claims.

In other words, by scientific standards, that article is fanciful bovine excrement.

Let's clarify by what is meant by evidence when it comes to science. Evidence to support a hypothesis (in order for the hypothesis to be established as theory) must be able to be reproduced and stand up to scrutiny by other experts in the field. The means, methods, and data must all be validated. This is accomplished through formal peer review of the research, which any Ph.D can tell you is not an easy process and can take some time to complete (months to years).

On the scale of scientific evidence, opinion pieces in financial rags rank just a bit higher than supermarket tabloids about "Yeti Found In Seattle!".

So when Nea asks what evidence you have to back up your claims, he's looking for peer reviewed science articles in well respected research periodicals (think Nature), not what some random blogger throws up on the web.

I hope that clarifies things.
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Currently have a 20 degree gradient from Denver to Fort Collins (this is not typical). A cold front is descending south across the state, expecting precipitation to start here any time...



Live view of Denver:

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my forecast is revise to high 82 tomorrrwo
nice.
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As I noted on my blog, ADT numbers for Imelda are running much higher than the listed intensity by JTWC, they suggest it's almost a hurricane-equivalent.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 APR 2013 Time : 220000 UTC
Lat : 11:07:35 S Lon : 62:51:54 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 987.4mb/ 63.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 4.0 4.0

Center Temp : -88.4C Cloud Region Temp : -86.6C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 52km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 14.7 degrees

Likely due to the very cold cloud tops in the CDO.

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Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11323
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


did you put mine on?

18 6 4


All the ones I've seen.
Yes, GA is there
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting Jedkins01:



Keep in mind that it is normal for a cap to form in the plains during severe events, its part of the reason instability gets as high as it does in the region before super cells break out for the convection that breaks through the cap. As you said, it's a matter breaking the cap first, and of course when it does things will "fire".



chasers are saying the Cap may be breaking
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
1277 hrs till jun first
Now 53 days, 5 hours, 7 minutes;) Temperatures have finally hit the 80 degree mark here in Herndon, VA just outside of Washington, DC making June 1st feel even closer.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
CAPE in northwestern Oklahoma is more than more than sufficient for severe weather and tornadoes. All that is needed is upper-air forcing to break the cap. Today would be significant if no cap was in place.




Keep in mind that it is normal for a cap to form in the plains during severe events, its part of the reason instability gets as high as it does in the region before super cells break out for the convection that breaks through the cap. As you said, it's a matter breaking the cap first, and of course when it does things will "fire".
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7687
I just posted a blog on Imelda if anyone's interested.

Link

It's looking good.

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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
hey you guys...I just added the names into my chart...
we can make over 100 predictions from you!
I just need 17 more
...lol, check it out next Saturday

Almost a month has gone by after I started with this poll...
thanks to all.
bbl.


did you put mine on?

18 6 4
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Last comment before I head into the night.......

Lots of good debate and articles today (including Dr. M's post)on all of the numbers crunching, computer modelling, and scientific papers (whether pro or con) on GW issues as well as the tropical meteorology papers on potential large scale global interconnections and correlations as related to tropical systems.

We are in the middle of a "golden age" in terms of weather analysis due to the initial boost from satellites and a second boost based upon advances in computing. Papers and positions, and reputations (and funding), on the line and we continue to gather real time numbers and data, from around the globe in the last 20-30 years, and folks continue to assert their positions.

I have no idea where it will all end/lead but I suspect that it might take us another 100 years, to verify many of the current thesis' without a doubt. However, I also doubt than Man will be able to fully comprehend, and nail down, exactly what "adjustments" the Earth will make in the coming years if we assume that climate change is occurring whether in a natural Earth cycle or at a very unnatural accelerated rate. Will will record all of the this data in detail in the coming decades to leave for subsequent generations to build on.

So many positions, and so much data coming in, and so little time to take it all in in one human lifetime when we know that the Earth works in hundred and thousand year cycles........
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Quoting RTSplayer:


Hmmm, not at all, some stuff will survive.
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NWS peachtree city mentioning all hazards including tornadoes




high today was 79F at my house, 4F above forecast.
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hey you guys...I just added the names into my chart...
we can make over 100 predictions from you!
I just need 17 more
...lol, check it out next Saturday

Almost a month has gone by after I started with this poll...
thanks to all.
bbl.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
NAM shows prefrontal rain/storms N GA



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Quoting MrMixon:




I'm confused... had someone expressed a concern about all life on the Earth going extinct sometime soon? Whose argument are you two countering here?


Hmmm, not at all, some stuff will survive.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
1277 hrs till jun first


remember the sun burn?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Possible uptick in squall line intensity and embedded qlcs supercells as the line enters GA during daytime heating, ECMWF now agree.

EHI > 1



but higher cape

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1277 hrs till jun first
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54639
Quoting kabloie:


They are countering their own strawman.

Please reference the research showing CO2 being 13 times more dense in the atmosphere than it is currently.



His number may be slightly inflated, or else I'm not aware of the exact period.

Carboniferous had double present day CO2 concentration, at 800PPM.

Triassic had 1750PPM CO2

Cretaceous had 1700PPM CO2, which is 4.75 times present day or about 6 times pre-industrial.

The Triassic through Cretaceous is when the Sauropods were around.

See wiki for quick reference.

Disclaimer not responsible for accuracy.

Supersaurus, at 33 to 34 metres (108 to 112 ft) long,[6] is the longest sauropod known from reasonably complete remains, but others, like the old record holder, Diplodocus, are still extremely long. The holotype (and now lost) vertebra of Amphicoelias fragillimus may have come from an animal 58 metres (190 ft) long;[7] its vertebral column would have been substantially longer than that of the blue whale.


Hehe. Suckers make elephants look like gnats.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Blizzard warning next to a severe thunderstorm watch..kinda weird
One comes after the other I know

there are some overlapping too
April in the Rockies my friend. Severe thunderstorms followed by blizzards as little as a few hours later or less sometimes.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.