Europe expected to see a large increase in Hurricane Sandy-like hybrid storms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:18 PM GMT on April 08, 2013

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Watch out, Europe. Dangerous part-hurricane, part extratropical hybrid storms like Hurricane Sandy of 2012 are expected to be an increasing threat for Western Europe by the end of the century due to global warming, said a team of scientists led by Reindert J. Haarsma of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute. In a paper called "More hurricanes to hit Western Europe due to global warming", published in April 2013 in Geophysical Research Letters, the researchers describe the results from runs of a high-resolution (25 km grid spacing) climate model based on the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) numerical weather prediction model. The model predicts that the breeding ground for Atlantic hurricanes will shift approximately 700 miles eastwards as the oceans warm this century. Hurricanes which form farther to the east can spend more time over warm tropical waters before turning north and northeast towards Europe, increasing the odds that these storms will have hurricane-force winds upon arrival in Europe. The model showed that wind shear will change little in the region over the coming decades, resulting in a large increase in storms with hurricane-force winds affecting Western Europe. Most of the these storms will not be tropical hurricanes upon arrival in Europe, but will be former hurricanes that have transitioned to extratropical storms. However, as we saw with Hurricane Sandy of 2012, these hybrid storms can be extremely dangerous. Summed over Norway, the North Sea, and the Gulf of Biscay, the model found that the number of hurricane-force storms in August - October increased from 2 to 13 over the 21st century, with almost all future West European hurricane-force storms predicted to originate as hurricanes or tropical storms in the tropics by 2100. The researchers conclude that "tropical cyclones will increase the probability of present-day extreme events over the North Sea and the Gulf of Biscay with a factor of 5 and 25 respectively, with far reaching consequences especially for coastal safety."


Figure 1. Hurricane Sandy at 10:10 am EDT October 28, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Europe's hurricane history
Only once since accurate records began in 1851 has an actual hurricane with full tropical characteristics hit Europe. This happened on September 16, 1961, when Category 1 Hurricane Debbie hit northwestern Ireland. Wind gusts reached 106 mph at Ballykelly and 104 mph at Tiree and Snaefill, and coastal radio stations reported the airwaves were jammed with calls for help from small ships and fishing craft. Eleven people were killed and 50 injured in the storm. The only other tropical cyclone recorded to have hit Europe since 1851 was Hurricane Vince of 2005, which hit southern Spain as a tropical depression on October 11, 2005. Historical documents also suggest a hurricane hit Spain on October 29, 1842.


Figure 2. Hurricane Debbie of 1961 was the only fully tropical hurricane ever recorded to hit Europe.

Britain's history of ex-hurricane strikes
Hurricanes that transition to powerful extratropical storms hit the British Isles several times per decade, on average. In 2011, Hurricane Katia brushed by Newfoundland, made the transition from a tropical system to a powerful extratropical storm, and maintained strong winds of 50 - 65 mph as it crossed the Atlantic. Ex-Katia hit northern Scotland on September 12, 2011. Glen Ogle, Scotland, at an elevation of 1500 feet (546 meters), received sustained winds of 60 mph, gusting to 86 mph. Cairngorm, in the Scottish Highlands at an elevation of 4085 feet, reported sustained winds of 67 mph. With the trees in full leaf, tree damage was much higher than a winter or springtime storm of similar ferocity would have caused. One person was killed by a falling tree, and heavy tree damage and numerous power failures were reported throughout Britain. Other gusts experienced in Britain included 76 mph at Edinburgh Blackford Hill, 75 mph at Capel Curig in Wales, 72 mph at Glasgow Bishopton, and 71 mph at Loftus, North Yorkshire.


Figure 3. Image of Hurricane Katia taken from the International Space Station at 15 GMT September 9, 2011, by astronaut Ron Garan. At the time, Katia was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Long Island, New York is visible at the lower left.


Figure 4. Surface wind estimate from the Windsat satellite at 4:04 am EDT on Monday, September 12, 2011. The center of Extratropical Storm Katia is marked by an "L", and winds in excess of 50 knots (58 mph, purple triangles) were occurring to the southwest of the center, near the west coast of Ireland. Image credit: NOAA.

As reported by UK Met Office forecaster John Hammond in a post on the BBC 23 degrees blog, Britain has been affected at least eight times in the past twenty years by extratropical storms that were once tropical storms or hurricanes. Before Katia of 2011, the most recent such storm was Hurricane Bill of 2009, which hit Ireland as an extratropical storm on August 25 with sustained winds of 45 mph. Bill was a Category 4 hurricane northeast of the Lesser Antilles five days prior. In 2006, a record three extratropical storms that had once been tropical cyclones hit Britain:

Extratropical Storm Alberto, which had been a strong tropical storm that hit the Florida Panhandle, hit northern Ireland and Scotland as an extratropical storm with 35 mph winds.

Extratropical Storm Gordon hit Ireland on September 21, 2006, with sustained winds of 65 mph. Gordon brought record warm temperatures as tropical air pushed north across the UK, and also strong winds that brought down power lines in Northern Ireland. Wind gusts to 60 mph (97 km/h) occurred in the Isles of Scilly off the southwest coast, and 81 mph (130 km/h) on the mainland.

Extratropical Storm Helene hit Northwestern Ireland on September 27, 2006, with sustained winds of 45 mph.

Figure 5. Path of Hurricane Lili of 1996, which caused $420 million in damage to the U.K. as an extratropical storm.

Other post-tropical cyclones that have the U.K. in the past twenty years include Hurricanes Isaac and Leslie of 2000, Hurricane Karl of 1998, and Hurricane Lili of 1996. The most severe of these storms was Extratropical Storm Lili, which hit Ireland on October 28, 1996, with sustained winds of 65 mph. Lili caused $420 million in damage (2011 dollars) in the U.K. According to Wikipedia, Lili produced a 92 mph (148 km/h) gust at Swansea, South Wales, while bringing a 4' (1.2 meter) storm surge that inundated the River Thames. In Somerset, 500 holiday cottages were severely damaged. A U.S. oil drilling platform, under tow in the North Sea, broke loose during the storm and nearly ran aground at Peterhead. On the Isle of Wight, a sailing boat was beached at Chale Bay; luckily all five occupants were rescued. It was the most damaging storm to have struck the United Kingdom since the Great Storm of 1987, which killed 22 and did $660 million in damage (1996 dollars.) However, Lili also broke a four-month drought over southwest England.

All but one of these storms hit during the peak part of hurricane season, mid-August - late October. The only exception was Ex-Tropical Storm Alberto of 2006, which hit Britain in June.


Figure 6. Hybrid subtropical storm of October 8, 1996, off the coast of Italy. According to Reale and Atlas (2001), the storm had characteristics similar to a hurricane, but formed over cool waters of 21.5°C (71°F.) They reported that "The maximum damage due to wind occurred over the Aeolian Islands, at 38.5°N, 15°E, to the northeast of Sicily: assistance for disaster relief was required. Unfortunately, no weather station data were available, but the media reported sheds, roofs and harbor devices destroyed, and houses and electric lines damaged, due to 'extremely strong westerly wind.' The perfect agreement between the observations at Ustica, the storm scale, the eye-like feature position and the damages over the Aeolian Island reasonably suggest that the hurricane-level intensity of 32 m/s (72 mph) was reached over the Aeolian Islands." A similar hybrid low affected Algeria on 9 - 10 November 2001. This storm produced upwards of 270 mm (10.6") of rain, winds of 33 m/s (74 mph), and killed 737 people near Algiers, mostly from flooding and mud slides. Image credit: Dundee satellite receiving station.

Hurricanes in the Mediterranean Sea?
The Mediterranean Sea between Europe and Africa has experienced several damaging hybrid subtropical storms in recent decades, but has never experienced a fully tropical hurricane in recorded history. However, global warming may cause the Mediterranean to start spawning hurricanes by 2100, according to a 2007 study by a research team led by Miguel Angel Gaertner of the University of Castilla-La Mancha in Toledo, Spain. They ran nine different climate models with resolutions of about 50 km and found that some (but not all) of the models simulated hurricanes in the Mediterranean in September by the end of the century, when ocean temperature could increase by 3°C, reaching 30°C.

Though the Mediterranean may start seeing hurricanes by the end of the century, these storms should be rare and relatively short-lived for three reasons:

1) The Mediterranean is quite far north and is subject to strong wind shear from jet stream activity.

2) The waters are shallow, and have relatively low heat content. There is no deep warm water current like the Gulf Stream.

3) The Mediterranean has a lot of large islands and peninsulas poking into it, increasing the chances that a tropical storm would weaken when it encountered land.

References
Gaertner, M. A., D. Jacob, V. Gil, M. Dominguez, E. Padorno, E. Sanchez, and M. Castro (2007), Tropical cyclones over the Mediterranean Sea in climate change simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L14711, doi:10.1029/2007GL029977.

Haarsma et al., 2013, More hurricanes to hit Western Europe due to global warming, Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/grl.50360

Reale, O., and R. Atlas. 2001: Tropical Cyclone-Like Vortices in the Extratropics: Observational Evidence and Synoptic Analysis, Weather and Forecasting, 16, No. 1, pp. 7-34.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Levi32:


For tropical interests it's useful as it shows the strength of the trade winds relative to normal. E.g. in the Atlantic the next two weeks feature mostly stronger than normal trades (purple colors) which can cool SSTs. In the equatorial Pacific, the forecast shows stronger trades to the west, with weaker trades to the east, indicating air spreading out at the ocean surface, which indicates sinking air, typical of a La Nina-ish pattern.
Are you going to code this on your site? Would be very useful!
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Strong cell leaving KS. Tornado may be with it.
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Snow has begun at Denver airport 6 hours after it was in the 70s there.
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 8568
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Quoting LargoFl:
my sincere apologies for posting that HUGE post..maybe doc can delete that for me..again..i am sorry for that.
Largo, you should be able to go in and modify it by simply deleting every thing after the part you meant to quote. The [modify comment] does work, even in IE, even if you have to press it twice to activate it.
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Quoting nofailsafe:


So what exactly is this showing us? What are at least some of the consequences of anomalous zonal winds? and what in a synoptic sense is the source of the anomalies?


For tropical interests it's useful as it shows the strength of the trade winds relative to normal. E.g. in the Atlantic the next two weeks feature mostly stronger than normal trades (purple colors) which can cool SSTs. In the equatorial Pacific, the forecast shows stronger trades to the west, with weaker trades to the east, indicating air spreading out at the ocean surface, which indicates sinking air, typical of a La Nina-ish pattern.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


so...are you feeling ok now?


yeah, except for the sleepy part, I could sleep through a tornado at this point. *Cue mother nature*
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347. Skyepony (Mod)
Tornado on the left lite up by lightning?
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37822
Quoting Astrometeor:


SO SLEEPY. After getting 5 hours of sleep, then two, then 6, then 5; I had a crash right in the middle of a pre-calculus test. fell asleep on it. nothing I could do about it, failed the test.

Took a nap after school, when mom tried to wake me up, my stomach almost threw a fit, running on meds to keep stomach/mold (school) allergies in check.

Supposedly there is an announcement at my school Thursday that has HUGE implications, only a couple of teachers who are in our principal's inner circle know what it is, am excited to hear it.

Funny thing happened in physics class, not sure if appropriate for blog, will e-mail you it.

Watching the severe weather, that stuff has distracted me over the last few days as anticipation creeps up for the event, let's get this over with it, shall we?


so...are you feeling ok now?
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Astro... how ya do fella?

some severe/wintry weather at the moment... some people having fun here


SO SLEEPY. After getting 5 hours of sleep, then two, then 6, then 5; I had a crash right in the middle of a pre-calculus test. fell asleep on it. nothing I could do about it, failed the test.

Took a nap after school, when mom tried to wake me up, my stomach almost threw a fit, running on meds to keep stomach/mold (school) allergies in check.

Supposedly there is an announcement at my school Thursday that has HUGE implications, only a couple of teachers who are in our principal's inner circle know what it is, am excited to hear it.

Funny thing happened in physics class, not sure if appropriate for blog, will e-mail you it.

Watching the severe weather, that stuff has distracted me over the last few days as anticipation creeps up for the event, let's get this over with it, shall we?
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Evening all. Has a mostly lousy day, except for the fantastic weather here. However, the heat was on with a vengeance... if that front we had marks the end of any serious cold front passage into the Bahamas [and that wouldn't be surprising, given the time of year] we could see some serious warming between now and the end of May.

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Dent in the drought is occurring as we speak.
Member Since: July 18, 2010 Posts: 50 Comments: 1869
Quoting Levi32:
GFS ensemble mean 10m zonal wind speed:

Positive values mean anomalous westerlies. Negative values mean anomalous easterlies.

Week 1:



Week 2:



So what exactly is this showing us? What are at least some of the consequences of anomalous zonal winds? and what in a synoptic sense is the source of the anomalies?
Member Since: June 18, 2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 944
Astro... how ya do fella?

some severe/wintry weather at the moment... some people having fun here
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Not to distract from the tornadic snow-storm in CO, but severe t-storm in Ohio, good thing by grandparents' sailboat is off the waters there.


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1025 PM EDT MON APR 8 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN LORAIN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO

* UNTIL 1100 PM EDT

* AT 1021 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF VERMILION...AND MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LORAIN...
ELYRIA...
NORTH RIDGEVILLE...
GRAFTON...
AVON LAKE...
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00z NAM HIRES MESO SIM REFLEC










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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
lets give em a significant event
clash of the seasons
winters lasts gasps



Wow.. Texas sure got evaporated out of the 2-3" the NAM was calling for the other day. It was through Wednesday,
but I don't see any setup for precip any time soon?
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337. Skyepony (Mod)
Oh he's streaming.. it's really dark.
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336. Skyepony (Mod)
Got to wunder if Jason Hammer isn't the storm spotter he is right on that cell.

Here's a link straight to the stream.
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00z NAM HIRES MESO SIM REFLEC

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53603
334. Skyepony (Mod)
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
815 PM MDT MON APR 08 2013

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0752 PM TORNADO 15 SSW AKRON 39.96N 103.32W
04/08/2013 WASHINGTON CO TRAINED SPOTTER

ON THE GROUND FOR THE PAST 10 MINUTES

0724 PM TORNADO 10 W AKRON 40.16N 103.40W
04/08/2013 WASHINGTON CO TRAINED SPOTTER
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37822
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
822 PM MDT MON APR 8 2013

COC121-090230-
/O.CON.KBOU.TO.W.0005.000000T0000Z-130409T0230Z/
WASHINGTON CO-
822 PM MDT MON APR 8 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM MDT FOR NORTH
CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY...

AT 823 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BURDETT...OR 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF
AKRON. THIS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

with a winter weather advisory
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lets give em a significant event
clash of the seasons
winters lasts gasps

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53603
2005 Vertical Instability

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awww really wish that those southern ontario storm reach us in ottawa, but I fear I will have to wait for a bit more....
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Look at this bad boy..78 dbz and a vigorous mesocyclone. It may produce.

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GFS ensemble mean 10m zonal wind speed:

Positive values mean anomalous westerlies. Negative values mean anomalous easterlies.

Week 1:



Week 2:

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Already some confirmed tornadoes with these northeast Colorado storms. Take shelter if you are in the path of these storms.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53603
Quoting luvtogolf:
It cracks me up that we put so much faith in computer models that can predict more stronger and bigger storms for Europe 80 years from now due to global warming but forecasters have low confidence in models trying to predict weather a week out. I don't buy it one bit. JMO
You'd probably crack up a whole lot less if you learned the difference between climate and weather. Let me know when you're ready; I'd be happy to teach you...
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Another reported tornado in Colorado, storm looks pretty good.

WFUS55 KBOU 090159
TORBOU
COC087-121-090245-
/O.NEW.KBOU.TO.W.0004.130409T0159Z-130409T0245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
759 PM MDT MON APR 8 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO
SOUTHEASTERN MORGAN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO

* UNTIL 845 PM MDT

* AT 759 PM MDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 13
MILES SOUTHWEST OF AKRON. THIS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH.


* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO PLATNER...
MIDWAY AND AKRON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

&&

LAT...LON 3997 10339 4012 10355 4025 10338 4024 10319
4017 10306 4001 10308
TIME...MOT...LOC 0159Z 240DEG 18KT 4005 10336

$$






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Winter Storm Warning and Tornado Warning up at the same time in Colorado. Seems like crazy weather there is at an "all time high"!!!

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Quoting MrMixon:
Currently have a 20 degree gradient from Denver to Fort Collins (this is not typical). A cold front is descending south across the state, expecting precipitation to start here any time...



Live view of Denver:



Rain/Snow mix in Boulder right now. I'm excited for this one. Let me know how conditions are in Nederland. Quite the colorful map right now. Blizzard, Winter Storm, Red Flag, Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Warnings are all up right now as well as a Winter Weather advisory and Severe Thunder Storm watch for good measure. Not many other places in the US you can get all of that in one WFO at the same time.
(edit: to be fair the red flag warning is out of Denver/Boulder's forecast area)

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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53603
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Dangerous storm in Colorado.
Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3842
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53603
New blog out! Please go check it out? Spent a TON of time on it. Would mean a lot if you stopped by.
My 2013 Hurricane Season : April Outlook
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315. Skyepony (Mod)
Fresh cloudsat of the storm of the west. Weird anomaly right in the strongest part.. Click pic for orientation of the pass.



Kori~ I like this plan you are putting together..
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 162 Comments: 37822
Tornado on the ground in NE Colorado, it's the tornado warned storm that is farther west as there are two separate tornado warned storms in that area of the state.
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WFUS55 KBOU 090124
TORBOU
COC121-090200-
/O.NEW.KBOU.TO.W.0002.130409T0124Z-130409T0200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
724 PM MDT MON APR 8 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL WASHINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO

* UNTIL 800 PM MDT

* AT 724 PM MDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO 5 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF MIDWAY...OR 8 MILES WEST OF AKRON. THIS STORM WAS
MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.


* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MIDWAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4035 10340 4034 10319 4013 10330 4016 10345
TIME...MOT...LOC 0124Z 195DEG 16KT 4018 10335

$$







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Wind is screamin' here in western Colorado Springs now.
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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53603
Quoting trunkmonkey:




I respond by saying HAARP!


I respond by saying HARPO!

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WOCN11 CWTO 090110
Special weather statement
Updated by Environment Canada
At 9:10 PM EDT Monday 8 April 2013.
------------------------------------------------- --------------------
Special weather statement for:
City of Toronto
Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent
Sarnia - Lambton
Elgin
London - Middlesex
Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
Oxford - Brant
Niagara
City of Hamilton
Halton - Peel
York - Durham
Huron - Perth
Waterloo - Wellington
Dufferin - Innisfil
Grey - Bruce
Barrie - Orillia - Midland.

Scattered thunderstorms this evening, rainy week over most of
Southern Ontario.


------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
Scattered thunderstorms have developed over Southwestern and South
Central Ontario this evening, mainly around the Golden Horseshoe and
west towards London. Small hail and frequent lightning may be
associated with these storms.

A series of low pressure systems will bring periods of rain to the
regions through the week. Rainfall amounts of 20 to 50 mm are
expected over most places through Tuesday night followed by
additional rainfall Wednesday through Friday. Some places could also
see snow mixed with the rain later in the week.

Environment Canada will keep a close eye on this situation and will
issue rainfall warnings if required.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca.


The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as
warnings may be required or extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53603
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 9:12 PM EDT Monday 8 April 2013
Condition: Thunderstorm with heavy rainshowers
Pressure: 29.8 inches
Tendency: falling
Visibility: 4 miles
Air Quality Health Index: 3

Temperature: 42.1°F
Dewpoint: 39.0°F
Humidity: 89 %
Wind: E 10 mph
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53603
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
717 PM MDT MON APR 8 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL PHILLIPS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO

* UNTIL 745 PM MDT

* AT 716 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER EXTREME
SOUTH CENTRAL PHILLIPS COUNTY...OR 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HOLYOKE.
THIS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
THE WARNED COUNTY SOUTH OF PAOLI.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

&&

LAT...LON 4053 10234 4043 10245 4045 10256 4051 10257
4057 10252
TIME...MOT...LOC 0116Z 214DEG 11KT 4045 10249
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It cracks me up that we put so much faith in computer models that can predict more stronger and bigger storms for Europe 80 years from now due to global warming but forecasters have low confidence in models trying to predict weather a week out. I don't buy it one bit. JMO
Member Since: June 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 968
Quoting hydrus:
Hello Kori.... The military is an excellent way to go, and will probably pay more than W-Mart plus better benefits for you right from the start. The raises are even decent, and if you do your 20 years, a tidy retirement pension. My best friends bro just finished his twenty and is digging it beautifully..:)....YEARS
OF
SERVICE RANK
Enlisted members enter as an E-1 (Airman Basic) or higher depending on education, prior service, etc. and are subsequently promoted up through the ranks.
E-1
Airman Basic E-2
Airman E-3
Airman
First Class E-4
Senior Airman E-5
Staff
Sergeant E-6
Technical
Sergeant E-7
Master Sergeant E-8
Senior Master
Sergeant E-9
Chief Master
Sergeant

RANGE $17,892 $20,056 $21,089 -
$23,774 $23,360 -
$28,357 $25,481 -
$36,155 $27,814 -
$43,078 $32,155 -
$57,791 $46,256 -
$65,974 $56,506 -
$87,732



Interesting.

First 3 ranks sucks though for pay, but you do get the best medical and dental in the world, as well as pretty much required vaccinations for every major disease that ever existed, which means you're way better off than most entry level jobs, in spite of the low entry level pay. Plus in post-modern times Navy and Airforce have been the safest branches of the military. There's almost never casualties.
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Quoting Xyrus2000:
blockquote class='blogquote'>Quoting AGWcreationists:
http://opinion.financialpost.com/2013/04/01/were- not-screwed/

*Much additional garbage deleted*



You're quoting and OPINION piece from a source with a well know ANTI-SCIENCE bias when it comes to all things climate. None of their claims are backed up by any sort of reviewed science, let alone any means or measure to reproduce their so-called claims.

In other words, by scientific standards, that article is fanciful bovine excrement.

Let's clarify by what is meant by evidence when it comes to science. Evidence to support a hypothesis (in order for the hypothesis to be established as theory) must be able to be reproduced and stand up to scrutiny by other experts in the field. The means, methods, and data must all be validated. This is accomplished through formal peer review of the research, which any Ph.D can tell you is not an easy process and can take some time to complete (months to years).

On the scale of scientific evidence, opinion pieces in financial rags rank just a bit higher than supermarket tabloids about "Yeti Found In Seattle!".

So when Nea asks what evidence you have to back up your claims, he's looking for peer reviewed science articles in well respected research periodicals (think Nature), not what some random blogger throws up on the web.

I hope that clarifies things.




I respond by saying HAARP!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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