Europe expected to see a large increase in Hurricane Sandy-like hybrid storms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:18 PM GMT on April 08, 2013

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Watch out, Europe. Dangerous part-hurricane, part extratropical hybrid storms like Hurricane Sandy of 2012 are expected to be an increasing threat for Western Europe by the end of the century due to global warming, said a team of scientists led by Reindert J. Haarsma of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute. In a paper called "More hurricanes to hit Western Europe due to global warming", published in April 2013 in Geophysical Research Letters, the researchers describe the results from runs of a high-resolution (25 km grid spacing) climate model based on the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) numerical weather prediction model. The model predicts that the breeding ground for Atlantic hurricanes will shift approximately 700 miles eastwards as the oceans warm this century. Hurricanes which form farther to the east can spend more time over warm tropical waters before turning north and northeast towards Europe, increasing the odds that these storms will have hurricane-force winds upon arrival in Europe. The model showed that wind shear will change little in the region over the coming decades, resulting in a large increase in storms with hurricane-force winds affecting Western Europe. Most of the these storms will not be tropical hurricanes upon arrival in Europe, but will be former hurricanes that have transitioned to extratropical storms. However, as we saw with Hurricane Sandy of 2012, these hybrid storms can be extremely dangerous. Summed over Norway, the North Sea, and the Gulf of Biscay, the model found that the number of hurricane-force storms in August - October increased from 2 to 13 over the 21st century, with almost all future West European hurricane-force storms predicted to originate as hurricanes or tropical storms in the tropics by 2100. The researchers conclude that "tropical cyclones will increase the probability of present-day extreme events over the North Sea and the Gulf of Biscay with a factor of 5 and 25 respectively, with far reaching consequences especially for coastal safety."


Figure 1. Hurricane Sandy at 10:10 am EDT October 28, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Europe's hurricane history
Only once since accurate records began in 1851 has an actual hurricane with full tropical characteristics hit Europe. This happened on September 16, 1961, when Category 1 Hurricane Debbie hit northwestern Ireland. Wind gusts reached 106 mph at Ballykelly and 104 mph at Tiree and Snaefill, and coastal radio stations reported the airwaves were jammed with calls for help from small ships and fishing craft. Eleven people were killed and 50 injured in the storm. The only other tropical cyclone recorded to have hit Europe since 1851 was Hurricane Vince of 2005, which hit southern Spain as a tropical depression on October 11, 2005. Historical documents also suggest a hurricane hit Spain on October 29, 1842.


Figure 2. Hurricane Debbie of 1961 was the only fully tropical hurricane ever recorded to hit Europe.

Britain's history of ex-hurricane strikes
Hurricanes that transition to powerful extratropical storms hit the British Isles several times per decade, on average. In 2011, Hurricane Katia brushed by Newfoundland, made the transition from a tropical system to a powerful extratropical storm, and maintained strong winds of 50 - 65 mph as it crossed the Atlantic. Ex-Katia hit northern Scotland on September 12, 2011. Glen Ogle, Scotland, at an elevation of 1500 feet (546 meters), received sustained winds of 60 mph, gusting to 86 mph. Cairngorm, in the Scottish Highlands at an elevation of 4085 feet, reported sustained winds of 67 mph. With the trees in full leaf, tree damage was much higher than a winter or springtime storm of similar ferocity would have caused. One person was killed by a falling tree, and heavy tree damage and numerous power failures were reported throughout Britain. Other gusts experienced in Britain included 76 mph at Edinburgh Blackford Hill, 75 mph at Capel Curig in Wales, 72 mph at Glasgow Bishopton, and 71 mph at Loftus, North Yorkshire.


Figure 3. Image of Hurricane Katia taken from the International Space Station at 15 GMT September 9, 2011, by astronaut Ron Garan. At the time, Katia was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Long Island, New York is visible at the lower left.


Figure 4. Surface wind estimate from the Windsat satellite at 4:04 am EDT on Monday, September 12, 2011. The center of Extratropical Storm Katia is marked by an "L", and winds in excess of 50 knots (58 mph, purple triangles) were occurring to the southwest of the center, near the west coast of Ireland. Image credit: NOAA.

As reported by UK Met Office forecaster John Hammond in a post on the BBC 23 degrees blog, Britain has been affected at least eight times in the past twenty years by extratropical storms that were once tropical storms or hurricanes. Before Katia of 2011, the most recent such storm was Hurricane Bill of 2009, which hit Ireland as an extratropical storm on August 25 with sustained winds of 45 mph. Bill was a Category 4 hurricane northeast of the Lesser Antilles five days prior. In 2006, a record three extratropical storms that had once been tropical cyclones hit Britain:

Extratropical Storm Alberto, which had been a strong tropical storm that hit the Florida Panhandle, hit northern Ireland and Scotland as an extratropical storm with 35 mph winds.

Extratropical Storm Gordon hit Ireland on September 21, 2006, with sustained winds of 65 mph. Gordon brought record warm temperatures as tropical air pushed north across the UK, and also strong winds that brought down power lines in Northern Ireland. Wind gusts to 60 mph (97 km/h) occurred in the Isles of Scilly off the southwest coast, and 81 mph (130 km/h) on the mainland.

Extratropical Storm Helene hit Northwestern Ireland on September 27, 2006, with sustained winds of 45 mph.

Figure 5. Path of Hurricane Lili of 1996, which caused $420 million in damage to the U.K. as an extratropical storm.

Other post-tropical cyclones that have the U.K. in the past twenty years include Hurricanes Isaac and Leslie of 2000, Hurricane Karl of 1998, and Hurricane Lili of 1996. The most severe of these storms was Extratropical Storm Lili, which hit Ireland on October 28, 1996, with sustained winds of 65 mph. Lili caused $420 million in damage (2011 dollars) in the U.K. According to Wikipedia, Lili produced a 92 mph (148 km/h) gust at Swansea, South Wales, while bringing a 4' (1.2 meter) storm surge that inundated the River Thames. In Somerset, 500 holiday cottages were severely damaged. A U.S. oil drilling platform, under tow in the North Sea, broke loose during the storm and nearly ran aground at Peterhead. On the Isle of Wight, a sailing boat was beached at Chale Bay; luckily all five occupants were rescued. It was the most damaging storm to have struck the United Kingdom since the Great Storm of 1987, which killed 22 and did $660 million in damage (1996 dollars.) However, Lili also broke a four-month drought over southwest England.

All but one of these storms hit during the peak part of hurricane season, mid-August - late October. The only exception was Ex-Tropical Storm Alberto of 2006, which hit Britain in June.


Figure 6. Hybrid subtropical storm of October 8, 1996, off the coast of Italy. According to Reale and Atlas (2001), the storm had characteristics similar to a hurricane, but formed over cool waters of 21.5°C (71°F.) They reported that "The maximum damage due to wind occurred over the Aeolian Islands, at 38.5°N, 15°E, to the northeast of Sicily: assistance for disaster relief was required. Unfortunately, no weather station data were available, but the media reported sheds, roofs and harbor devices destroyed, and houses and electric lines damaged, due to 'extremely strong westerly wind.' The perfect agreement between the observations at Ustica, the storm scale, the eye-like feature position and the damages over the Aeolian Island reasonably suggest that the hurricane-level intensity of 32 m/s (72 mph) was reached over the Aeolian Islands." A similar hybrid low affected Algeria on 9 - 10 November 2001. This storm produced upwards of 270 mm (10.6") of rain, winds of 33 m/s (74 mph), and killed 737 people near Algiers, mostly from flooding and mud slides. Image credit: Dundee satellite receiving station.

Hurricanes in the Mediterranean Sea?
The Mediterranean Sea between Europe and Africa has experienced several damaging hybrid subtropical storms in recent decades, but has never experienced a fully tropical hurricane in recorded history. However, global warming may cause the Mediterranean to start spawning hurricanes by 2100, according to a 2007 study by a research team led by Miguel Angel Gaertner of the University of Castilla-La Mancha in Toledo, Spain. They ran nine different climate models with resolutions of about 50 km and found that some (but not all) of the models simulated hurricanes in the Mediterranean in September by the end of the century, when ocean temperature could increase by 3°C, reaching 30°C.

Though the Mediterranean may start seeing hurricanes by the end of the century, these storms should be rare and relatively short-lived for three reasons:

1) The Mediterranean is quite far north and is subject to strong wind shear from jet stream activity.

2) The waters are shallow, and have relatively low heat content. There is no deep warm water current like the Gulf Stream.

3) The Mediterranean has a lot of large islands and peninsulas poking into it, increasing the chances that a tropical storm would weaken when it encountered land.

References
Gaertner, M. A., D. Jacob, V. Gil, M. Dominguez, E. Padorno, E. Sanchez, and M. Castro (2007), Tropical cyclones over the Mediterranean Sea in climate change simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L14711, doi:10.1029/2007GL029977.

Haarsma et al., 2013, More hurricanes to hit Western Europe due to global warming, Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/grl.50360

Reale, O., and R. Atlas. 2001: Tropical Cyclone-Like Vortices in the Extratropics: Observational Evidence and Synoptic Analysis, Weather and Forecasting, 16, No. 1, pp. 7-34.

Jeff Masters

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Thursday is going to quite active in here i guess....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39319
Quoting pcola57:


Morning hydrus.. :)
The GOM is still a swirling along at her regular pace and Sping temps..
Gotta be beautiful out there about 200 miles south of me..
Would love to be "cruising".. :)
Now I,m homesick...I need to make a trip down there , but cannot leave due to mothers fragile health. I would love to catch snapper and make home made onion rings and eat them. Just like back when.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21432
Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't like the rude comments people make towards other when they don't believe in G.W on here.
I'm of the opinion that people making laughable statements should expect to be laughed at.
Quoting washingtonian115:
If they don't believe that is their business.
Sure it is. But once they post that belief in a public forum, it becomes everyone's business. Wouldn't you agree?
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39319
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21432
stay alert northern texas.................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39319
Quoting originalLT:
Hard to believe it's never been higher than 80F on this date in Pensacola FLA. !
yes next few days its going to be above average for florida..my met says 85 one day this week gee..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39319
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Gulf temps are warming fast now.


ROCKET FUEL!

Just thought I'd say it for you.
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Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21432
Edit:Double post..where's my coffee?
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6844
Quoting hydrus:
The gulf is still cool there this time of year and moderates the temp..just me harmless opinion..:)..mornin 57.


Morning hydrus.. :)
The GOM is still a swirling along at her regular pace and Sping temps..
Gotta be beautiful out there about 200 miles south of me..
Would love to be "cruising".. :)
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6844
Quoting pcola57:


Yeah seems weird at 80..
Also seems warmer here now than 70 really..
But The weather "she's a changing" tomorrow and Thursday T'storms.. :)
The gulf is still cool up there this time of year and moderates the temp..just me harmless opinion..:)..mornin 57.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21432
Quoting originalLT:
Hard to believe it's never been higher than 80F on this date in Pensacola FLA. !


Yeah seems weird at 80..
Also seems warmer here now than 70 really..
( Average high for today is 72 )
But The weather "she's a changing" tomorrow and Thursday T'storms.. :)
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6844
I don't like the rude comments people make towards other when they don't believe in G.W on here.If they don't believe that is their business.
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Hard to believe it's never been higher than 80F on this date in Pensacola FLA. !
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Quoting MoeHoward:
Strange. Given there is no global warming why would there be an increase in European storms? Could this simply be a cyclical event? These storms are not a new occurance. A study into the real cause seems to be in order.


Excellent suggestion! I'm assigning Dr. D. Nile to your case.

(He'd have been here already, but the boat keeps hitting those pesky drowned polar bears....)
Member Since: September 24, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 391
Des Moines, Iowa

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15703
Good Morning All,
70 degrees here now..
Record of 80 set in 2001..
It's possible we break that today..

Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6844
The wonders of having a day with highs in the 80's and what it does to the trees...Now their really letting themselves out.
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484. AussieStorm 9:13 AM EDT on April 09, 2013

Thank You Sir; it just updated on my link as you posted.

Here is the summary:

Tropical Pacific remains ENSO neutral
Issued on Tuesday 9 April 2013 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

Current atmospheric and oceanic observations show a neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state. Model forecasts unanimously show a persistence of this neutral pattern for the remainder of the southern hemisphere autumn and into early winter. In other words, the development of either an El Nino or a La Nina is very unlikely in the coming three months.

Although the neutral ENSO pattern is only having a limited influence on our climate at present, Australia has experienced consistently warm land and sea surface temperatures since spring 2012, including several record breaking heat waves and the warmest summer on record. The persistently warm waters that continue to surround Australia may promote increased local rainfall in favourable weather conditions.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has little influence upon Australia%u2019s climate from December through to April. The consensus of current model projections is for a neutral IOD for late autumn into early winter.

Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9240
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Next update expected on 9 April 2013

The Aussie Met office a little late today on issuing their latest Enso outlook; probably almost done crunching the numbers as to recent anomalies in the Pacific; they were predicting Enso neutral conditions for several months out. Will post as soon as they issue the update.


It has been issued....

Weekly Tropical Climate Note

Issued on Tuesday 09 April 2013

MJO stalls over eastern Indian Ocean
Over the past week, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has gained strength after stalling over the eastern Indian Ocean. The near-equatorial monsoon trough reformed over the Indian Ocean region with three embedded low pressure systems: one near Bali, another south of Sumatra, and the third, tropical cyclone Imelda, near 70%uFFFD E. Historically, when the MJO has been in the eastern Indian Ocean in April, the region in the western Pacific associated with the South Pacific Convergence Zone has seen enhanced easterly trade winds and a decreased chance of precipitation.
The MJO is forecast to progress east over the Maritime Continent this week, however the influence of the MJO is expected to weaken significantly. Central Australia and Queensland's Central Coast may see above average rainfall this week as the MJO progresses east and easterly winds strengthen in the Pacific. Tropical northern Australia, especially far northern Queensland, may see an increased chance of rain amid patches of dry season-like weather, but the monsoon trough (if any) is expected to remain north of the continent.

See the Bureau's MJO Monitoring for more information on location and tracking of the MJO.

Neutral ENSO conditions persist

The Pacific Ocean remains ENSO-neutral with the latest sea surface temperature anomalies in the NINO3.4 region at 0.2 %uFFFDC. The latest 30 day SOI to the 7th of April is 9.0. The recent high SOI values are a result of high pressure weather systems over Tahiti, and are not indicative of the broad scale climate.

See the Bureau's ENSO Wrap-Up which includes a compilation of ENSO computer model predictions.









Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
Next update expected on 9 April 2013

The Aussie Met office a little late today on issuing their latest Enso outlook; probably almost done crunching the numbers as to recent anomalies in the Pacific; they were predicting Enso neutral conditions for several months out. Will post as soon as they issue the update.

Here is the one from two weeks ago; will be curious to see if there are any changes in today's outlook.

Issued on Tuesday 26 March 2013 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

The tropical Pacific remains neutral - neither El Nino nor La Nina. Current atmospheric and oceanic indicators as well as climate model forecasts indicate neutral conditions are likely to continue through the remainder of the southern hemisphere autumn.

Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9240
Quoting indianrivguy:


Isn't it illegal to grow that?

Not if your as old as Gro. He pre-dates laws like that. lol
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
Quoting Grothar:


No, but I have given consideration to a Gro-pwat value.


Isn't it illegal to grow that?
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I got to go boys and girls. But thanks for laugh this morning. I needed it.

This system does look potentially dangerous today. It looks like it could affect a lot of people. Stay safe and see you all later.
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Quoting MoeHoward:
Strange. Given there is no global warming why would there be an increase in European storms? Could this simply be a cyclical event? These storms are not a new occurance. A study into the real cause seems to be in order.
3 posts since 2001...Everything is cyclical...I think..:)
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21432
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Apr 9, 2013 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook




DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 AM CDT TUE APR 09 2013

VALID 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM
CNTRL OK INTO N-CNTRL TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
FROM THE MID-MS/LOWER-MO VALLEY REGION SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

A VORTICITY MAXIMUM ALONG THE POLEWARD SIDE OF MID TO UPPER-LEVEL
JET STREAKS CURRENTLY ROUNDING THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH BASE OVER NWRN
MEXICO AND FAR SRN AZ/NM WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS
TODAY...IN ADVANCE OF AN UPSTREAM JET STREAK DIGGING SEWD THROUGH
SRN CA AND BAJA INTO NWRN MEXICO. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL
RESULT IN A CORRIDOR OF MODEST /I.E. 30-60 M/ 12-HR HEIGHT FALLS AT
500 MB SPREADING INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A BELT OF 70-90 KT SWLY WINDS AT THIS SAME LEVEL.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...A FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL
DEVELOP NEWD INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY WHILE A TRAILING...INTENSE
COLD FRONT SURGES SEWD THROUGH MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD ACROSS WRN TX TODAY AND WILL LIKELY
EXTEND FROM THE COLD FRONT OVER SWRN OK INTO W-CNTRL TX BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL WAVE...A
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH
VALLEY.

...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SUGGESTING THAT
INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS AND LOW-LEVEL UPLIFT/CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT WILL FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE-BASED TSTMS BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON FROM CNTRL/ERN KS INTO SWRN OK. AIDED BY STEEP
LAPSE RATES...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER /TO POSSIBLY
MID/ 60S...AND MLCAPE RANGING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG NORTH TO 2000-2500
J/KG SOUTH...EXPECT TSTMS TO QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH AN ATTENDANT
RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL /SOME POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT/...AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES.

THE LARGELY PARALLEL ORIENTATION OF THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTOR TO
THE COLD FRONT AND IT/S STRONGLY ANAFRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS SUGGEST
A FAIRLY RAPID TRANSITION OF STORMS TO OUTFLOW DOMINANT CLUSTERS OR
LINES. THOUGH CAPPING WILL REMAIN PROBLEMATIC...THE GREATEST RISK
FOR SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST WITHIN THE DRYLINE CIRCULATION FROM SWRN
OK INTO NWRN TX.

AN AMALGAMATION OF STORMS INTO MULTIPLE BANDS/CLUSTERS IS
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT INVOF OF THE COLD FRONT WITH PRIMARILY A
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THREAT DEVELOPING EWD/NEWD INTO THE LOWER MO
RIVER VALLEY AND OZARKS...AND SEWD TOWARD THE ARKLATEX AND TX HILL
COUNTRY.

...IA EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED MCV HAS EVOLVED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE
MID MO VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN MCS IN PROGRESS TO THE NORTH OF
THE SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT. HEATING ALONG AND/S OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT COUPLED WITH THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF THE MCV AND ANY
ADDITIONAL PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW REGIME WILL
GIVE RISE TO MULTIPLE TSTM CLUSTERS THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION
OF MODEST INSTABILITY /I.E. MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J PER KG/ AND 40-45
KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORM
MODES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL. UNCERTAINTY IN A
MORE SPECIFIC TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS SEVERE THREAT PRECLUDES
THE INCLUSION OF A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK FARTHER EAST INTO THE OH
VALLEY ATTM.

..MEAD/ROGERS.. 04/09/2013

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW
TUL 35 WSW MKO 25 WNW MLC 15 E ADM 40 NNW FTW 35 NNW MWL 35 SSW SPS
10 W SPS 20 SW CHK 35 NNE OKC 30 N CQB 20 WSW TUL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE
CID 15 SE MLI 15 S PIA 25 SSW SPI STL 35 NW FAM 25 NNE DEQ 15 W DEQ
20 E PRX 15 NNW CRS 10 WSW ACT 50 NW AUS 55 WNW AUS 30 ESE JCT 20 SE
JCT 30 W JCT 15 S SJT 70 N ABI 30 SSW LTS CSM 20 E P28 HUT 25 W MHK
30 ESE BIE 30 NW FNB 55 SE DNS 45 W DSM 35 W CID 10 SW CID 20 ESE
CID 30 ESE CID.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW BUF 10 WNW MSV
35 S GON ...CONT... 75 ENE HYA 15 NNE HYA 10 NW BOS 30 E LCI 35 SE
AUG 40 SE EPM ...CONT... 55 E WAL 25 WSW DAY 40 N SDF 50 SW BNA 30
SW TCL 50 NNW MOB 15 ESE GPT MSY 30 E HEZ 40 ENE MLU 15 WSW LLQ 25 N
ELD 30 SSE TXK 40 NW NIR 40 WNW LRD ...CONT... 30 S 6R6 75 SSW CDS
20 ESE CDS 40 E BGD 30 WNW BGD 40 SSW DHT 30 WNW CVS 40 SSW ELP
...CONT... 25 SSE FHU 20 SW SOW 35 NNE 4BL 10 SSE MTJ 35 SE GUC 20 S
PUB 15 NNW LAA 45 N ITR 30 E PIR 40 SW ABR 25 SSE ABR 25 SSW IMT 95
ENE BAX.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
Quoting Thrawst:


LOOOOOOOOL! Are you assigning a Gro-rak (Dvorak's twin) values as well? I think it will resolve any debates whether or not a blob is indeed a blob.

Laughing in biology class. Bad Kevin, bad.


No, but I have given consideration to a Gro-pwat value.
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Quoting Grothar:


Not yet declared on this one. I just want to make sure it is vertically stacked.


Is shear going to allow it, sensei?
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Updated SPC Tornado probability map.

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15940
Dr. Greg Forbes Torcon Index

Tuesday, April 9

Severe thunderstorms and a few tornadoes in central and eastern Kansas, southeast Nebraska, southern Iowa, northern, central and southwest Missouri, west-central Illinois, Oklahoma (except for panhandle), and north-central and northeast Texas. Maximum TOR:CON - 4 southeastern Kansas.

Tuesday night: Severe thunderstorms spreading across central and northeast Texas, western and northern Arkansas, all of Missouri, central and southern Illinois, and west-central Indiana. Maximum TOR:CON - 4 in northern Missouri.

TOR:CON details:

AR northwest - 3
AR north, west night - 3
IA south - 2 to 3
IL west-central - 2 to 3
IL west-central night - 3 to 4
IL east-central, south night - 3
IN west-central night - 3
KS southeast - 4
KS central, northeast - 3
MO north, west, central - 3
MO north night - 4
NE southeast - 2 to 3
OK (excluding panhandle) - 3
TX north-central, northeast - 3
TX central, northeast night - 3
Wednesday, April 10

Severe thunderstorms along and somewhat ahead of a cold front in central and southern Illinois, northern and central Indiana, eastern and southern Missouri, all of Arkansas, western and central Louisiana, extreme southeast Oklahoma, eastern Texas, and extreme northwestern Mississippi. Maximum TOR:CON - 4 in central Illinois.

Wednesday night: Severe thunderstorms spread into southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, west Tennessee, Mississippi, and southeast Louisiana. Maximum TOR:CON - 4 in east-central and west-central Indiana.

TOR:CON details:

AR - 3
IL central - 4
IL south - 3
IN central - 3 to 4
KY west night - 3 to 4
LA west, central - 3
LA southeast night - 3
MO east-central - 3 to 4
MO south - 3
MS night - 3
OK extreme southeast early - 3
TN night - 3
TX east - 3
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15703
I will however, assign a "Grocon" number to the ones with potential.

LMAO..................
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9240
Quoting Thrawst:


Blob?


Not yet declared on this one. I just want to make sure it is vertically stacked.
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Quoting Grothar:


I am preparing a list now. I am expecting an early blob season to begin in May. Pre-blobs will not be named. I don't want to cause any panic.

I will however, assign a "Grocon" number to the ones with potential.


LOOOOOOOOL! Are you assigning a Gro-rak (Dvorak's twin) values as well? I think it will resolve any debates whether or not a blob is indeed a blob.

Laughing in biology class. Bad Kevin, bad.
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Strange. Given there is no global warming why would there be an increase in European storms? Could this simply be a cyclical event? These storms are not a new occurance. A study into the real cause seems to be in order.
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Quoting Grothar:


I am preparing a list now. I am expecting an early blob season to begin in May. Pre-blobs will not be named. I don't want to cause any panic.

I will however, assign a "Grocon" number to the ones with potential.


Excellent! May I have the honor of having the seventh Blob of the season named Geoffrey?
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Grothar...when are you going to release the 2013 list of Blob names?


I am preparing a list now. I am expecting an early blob season to begin in May. Pre-blobs will not be named. I don't want to cause any panic.

I will however, assign a "Grocon" number to the ones with potential.
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Quoting indianrivguy:


OMG, the new years first blob alert... the Grothar Blob Alert Network.. ever vigilant... well done Thrawst!


Grothar...when are you going to release the 2013 list of Blob names?
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Quoting indianrivguy:


OMG, the new years first blob alert... the Grothar Blob Alert Network.. ever vigilant... well done Thrawst!

Yeah. But Grothar saw it first......

:):))
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Quoting Thrawst:


Blob?


OMG, the new years first blob alert... the Grothar Blob Alert Network.. ever vigilant... well done Thrawst!
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Quoting Grothar:


Blob?
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And in 10 days possible mid plains and ohio valley outbreak

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
Squalll timing has slowed to thursday night in N GA, but i wonder if isolated cells could take advantage of higher EHI earlier in the day

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Early Summer?


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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39319
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Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9731
Gulf temps are warming fast now.

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.