Europe expected to see a large increase in Hurricane Sandy-like hybrid storms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:18 PM GMT on April 08, 2013

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Watch out, Europe. Dangerous part-hurricane, part extratropical hybrid storms like Hurricane Sandy of 2012 are expected to be an increasing threat for Western Europe by the end of the century due to global warming, said a team of scientists led by Reindert J. Haarsma of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute. In a paper called "More hurricanes to hit Western Europe due to global warming", published in April 2013 in Geophysical Research Letters, the researchers describe the results from runs of a high-resolution (25 km grid spacing) climate model based on the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) numerical weather prediction model. The model predicts that the breeding ground for Atlantic hurricanes will shift approximately 700 miles eastwards as the oceans warm this century. Hurricanes which form farther to the east can spend more time over warm tropical waters before turning north and northeast towards Europe, increasing the odds that these storms will have hurricane-force winds upon arrival in Europe. The model showed that wind shear will change little in the region over the coming decades, resulting in a large increase in storms with hurricane-force winds affecting Western Europe. Most of the these storms will not be tropical hurricanes upon arrival in Europe, but will be former hurricanes that have transitioned to extratropical storms. However, as we saw with Hurricane Sandy of 2012, these hybrid storms can be extremely dangerous. Summed over Norway, the North Sea, and the Gulf of Biscay, the model found that the number of hurricane-force storms in August - October increased from 2 to 13 over the 21st century, with almost all future West European hurricane-force storms predicted to originate as hurricanes or tropical storms in the tropics by 2100. The researchers conclude that "tropical cyclones will increase the probability of present-day extreme events over the North Sea and the Gulf of Biscay with a factor of 5 and 25 respectively, with far reaching consequences especially for coastal safety."


Figure 1. Hurricane Sandy at 10:10 am EDT October 28, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Europe's hurricane history
Only once since accurate records began in 1851 has an actual hurricane with full tropical characteristics hit Europe. This happened on September 16, 1961, when Category 1 Hurricane Debbie hit northwestern Ireland. Wind gusts reached 106 mph at Ballykelly and 104 mph at Tiree and Snaefill, and coastal radio stations reported the airwaves were jammed with calls for help from small ships and fishing craft. Eleven people were killed and 50 injured in the storm. The only other tropical cyclone recorded to have hit Europe since 1851 was Hurricane Vince of 2005, which hit southern Spain as a tropical depression on October 11, 2005. Historical documents also suggest a hurricane hit Spain on October 29, 1842.


Figure 2. Hurricane Debbie of 1961 was the only fully tropical hurricane ever recorded to hit Europe.

Britain's history of ex-hurricane strikes
Hurricanes that transition to powerful extratropical storms hit the British Isles several times per decade, on average. In 2011, Hurricane Katia brushed by Newfoundland, made the transition from a tropical system to a powerful extratropical storm, and maintained strong winds of 50 - 65 mph as it crossed the Atlantic. Ex-Katia hit northern Scotland on September 12, 2011. Glen Ogle, Scotland, at an elevation of 1500 feet (546 meters), received sustained winds of 60 mph, gusting to 86 mph. Cairngorm, in the Scottish Highlands at an elevation of 4085 feet, reported sustained winds of 67 mph. With the trees in full leaf, tree damage was much higher than a winter or springtime storm of similar ferocity would have caused. One person was killed by a falling tree, and heavy tree damage and numerous power failures were reported throughout Britain. Other gusts experienced in Britain included 76 mph at Edinburgh Blackford Hill, 75 mph at Capel Curig in Wales, 72 mph at Glasgow Bishopton, and 71 mph at Loftus, North Yorkshire.


Figure 3. Image of Hurricane Katia taken from the International Space Station at 15 GMT September 9, 2011, by astronaut Ron Garan. At the time, Katia was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Long Island, New York is visible at the lower left.


Figure 4. Surface wind estimate from the Windsat satellite at 4:04 am EDT on Monday, September 12, 2011. The center of Extratropical Storm Katia is marked by an "L", and winds in excess of 50 knots (58 mph, purple triangles) were occurring to the southwest of the center, near the west coast of Ireland. Image credit: NOAA.

As reported by UK Met Office forecaster John Hammond in a post on the BBC 23 degrees blog, Britain has been affected at least eight times in the past twenty years by extratropical storms that were once tropical storms or hurricanes. Before Katia of 2011, the most recent such storm was Hurricane Bill of 2009, which hit Ireland as an extratropical storm on August 25 with sustained winds of 45 mph. Bill was a Category 4 hurricane northeast of the Lesser Antilles five days prior. In 2006, a record three extratropical storms that had once been tropical cyclones hit Britain:

Extratropical Storm Alberto, which had been a strong tropical storm that hit the Florida Panhandle, hit northern Ireland and Scotland as an extratropical storm with 35 mph winds.

Extratropical Storm Gordon hit Ireland on September 21, 2006, with sustained winds of 65 mph. Gordon brought record warm temperatures as tropical air pushed north across the UK, and also strong winds that brought down power lines in Northern Ireland. Wind gusts to 60 mph (97 km/h) occurred in the Isles of Scilly off the southwest coast, and 81 mph (130 km/h) on the mainland.

Extratropical Storm Helene hit Northwestern Ireland on September 27, 2006, with sustained winds of 45 mph.

Figure 5. Path of Hurricane Lili of 1996, which caused $420 million in damage to the U.K. as an extratropical storm.

Other post-tropical cyclones that have the U.K. in the past twenty years include Hurricanes Isaac and Leslie of 2000, Hurricane Karl of 1998, and Hurricane Lili of 1996. The most severe of these storms was Extratropical Storm Lili, which hit Ireland on October 28, 1996, with sustained winds of 65 mph. Lili caused $420 million in damage (2011 dollars) in the U.K. According to Wikipedia, Lili produced a 92 mph (148 km/h) gust at Swansea, South Wales, while bringing a 4' (1.2 meter) storm surge that inundated the River Thames. In Somerset, 500 holiday cottages were severely damaged. A U.S. oil drilling platform, under tow in the North Sea, broke loose during the storm and nearly ran aground at Peterhead. On the Isle of Wight, a sailing boat was beached at Chale Bay; luckily all five occupants were rescued. It was the most damaging storm to have struck the United Kingdom since the Great Storm of 1987, which killed 22 and did $660 million in damage (1996 dollars.) However, Lili also broke a four-month drought over southwest England.

All but one of these storms hit during the peak part of hurricane season, mid-August - late October. The only exception was Ex-Tropical Storm Alberto of 2006, which hit Britain in June.


Figure 6. Hybrid subtropical storm of October 8, 1996, off the coast of Italy. According to Reale and Atlas (2001), the storm had characteristics similar to a hurricane, but formed over cool waters of 21.5°C (71°F.) They reported that "The maximum damage due to wind occurred over the Aeolian Islands, at 38.5°N, 15°E, to the northeast of Sicily: assistance for disaster relief was required. Unfortunately, no weather station data were available, but the media reported sheds, roofs and harbor devices destroyed, and houses and electric lines damaged, due to 'extremely strong westerly wind.' The perfect agreement between the observations at Ustica, the storm scale, the eye-like feature position and the damages over the Aeolian Island reasonably suggest that the hurricane-level intensity of 32 m/s (72 mph) was reached over the Aeolian Islands." A similar hybrid low affected Algeria on 9 - 10 November 2001. This storm produced upwards of 270 mm (10.6") of rain, winds of 33 m/s (74 mph), and killed 737 people near Algiers, mostly from flooding and mud slides. Image credit: Dundee satellite receiving station.

Hurricanes in the Mediterranean Sea?
The Mediterranean Sea between Europe and Africa has experienced several damaging hybrid subtropical storms in recent decades, but has never experienced a fully tropical hurricane in recorded history. However, global warming may cause the Mediterranean to start spawning hurricanes by 2100, according to a 2007 study by a research team led by Miguel Angel Gaertner of the University of Castilla-La Mancha in Toledo, Spain. They ran nine different climate models with resolutions of about 50 km and found that some (but not all) of the models simulated hurricanes in the Mediterranean in September by the end of the century, when ocean temperature could increase by 3°C, reaching 30°C.

Though the Mediterranean may start seeing hurricanes by the end of the century, these storms should be rare and relatively short-lived for three reasons:

1) The Mediterranean is quite far north and is subject to strong wind shear from jet stream activity.

2) The waters are shallow, and have relatively low heat content. There is no deep warm water current like the Gulf Stream.

3) The Mediterranean has a lot of large islands and peninsulas poking into it, increasing the chances that a tropical storm would weaken when it encountered land.

References
Gaertner, M. A., D. Jacob, V. Gil, M. Dominguez, E. Padorno, E. Sanchez, and M. Castro (2007), Tropical cyclones over the Mediterranean Sea in climate change simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L14711, doi:10.1029/2007GL029977.

Haarsma et al., 2013, More hurricanes to hit Western Europe due to global warming, Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/grl.50360

Reale, O., and R. Atlas. 2001: Tropical Cyclone-Like Vortices in the Extratropics: Observational Evidence and Synoptic Analysis, Weather and Forecasting, 16, No. 1, pp. 7-34.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting LargoFl:
ok the ICE age is NOW..ok so how far down do the Glaciers go??.............just imagine..how many millions of people would have to flee south wow


Where are you getting this info? An ice age is not starting right now!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting calkevin77:


Hey there. I'm in Pflugerville out by 45 & 130. As for the CAPE values I saw that too. I have a feeling that what would normally be slow to grow type cells will baloon out to some pretty gnarly supercells. If they stay discreet there could be some massive hail stones as well. Jarrell was what 7500 j/kg CAPE? Unbelievable. At any rate it should be interesting to see whether this whole thing lines up as more of a squall line type deal or more of a discreet microsburst type thing. Also depends on if the cold front overtakes the warmer boundary. Either way I have my dog's thundershirt ready and plan on needing a lot of coffee tomorrow morning lol.


I frankly don't know what to expect. I just remember Jarrell day, an employee telling me a twister was over
my house, me racing home amid jaw-dropping destruction.

Trucks upside-down in trees, large metal roofs almost surgically removed and sent elsewhere.. it was just crazy. That day Willie Nelson (among others) 'inherited' a boat in his back yard in Briarcliff when
the storm traversed Lake Travis.
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2813
well when i was young in nyc i had my heart set on tv news..ok so i went that route on the tech side, but now that im retired, and having the internet with all its info and sites, i wish i would have went into geology instead..searching back in time, fossils etc...to find something..oh maybe 60,000 years old..geez..im sure it can be a rough profession at times, but its like going on a treasure hunt..well anyway..now its up to the young people..dont give up your hopes and dreams..follow them.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33491
551. calkevin77
3:31 PM GMT on April 09, 2013
Quoting redwagon:

You know, that's right! West of Austin in the hills here, and it only rains Tue-Thurs.

1900 isn't here yet, he's been studying this setup. Accumulated CAPE should be 2500-3000 for us by showtime
at 4 or 5, which is about half the Jarrell twister.

Here's hoping our internet doesn't go out!


Hey there. I'm in Pflugerville out by 45 & 130. As for the CAPE values I saw that too. I have a feeling that what would normally be slow to grow type cells will baloon out to some pretty gnarly supercells. If they stay discreet there could be some massive hail stones as well. Jarrell was what 7500 j/kg CAPE? Unbelievable. At any rate it should be interesting to see whether this whole thing lines up as more of a squall line type deal or more of a discreet microsburst type thing. Also depends on if the cold front overtakes the warmer boundary. Either way I have my dog's thundershirt ready and plan on needing a lot of coffee tomorrow morning lol.
Member Since: June 9, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 794
550. LargoFl
3:29 PM GMT on April 09, 2013
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
On the GW issues; you notice I sit on the fence (and part of that is that I am not as informed on this issue as others on here). This should be a teaching blog (as it was in past years and meant to be) so folks should really stick to the basic facts (posting articles and the like) and letting others make their mind up independently rather than any form of attacks, ridicule, or being condescending.

As a layman on GW issues, I cannot ignore what appears to be warming anomalies around the globe in recent years but I also think that lots of folks cherry pick information and new studies/papers/article as they come out to support their respective positions.

A lot of information to digest and folks should just be respectful of the various positions out there; I know where Dr. Master's stands on the issue but I don't criticize or attack him on here just because of his belief (backed by science).
..well scroll down and read post 510 if you want to see the REAL danger in GW....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33491
549. FLwolverine
3:29 PM GMT on April 09, 2013
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes but if they choose not to beleive then oh well.Insulting them isn't going to make them start beleiving in G.W and have a light bulb go off in their head.Its like me telling the people that live on a barrier island to evacuate because of the a storm surge that will drown them out.You can warn them all you want but they have to see to beleive.

It's not a matter of belief. It's a matter of denying facts (increasing temps, melting ice, etc) and trying to get other people to doubt or deny those facts. And denying these facts can, probably will be, dangerous. Remember how much ridicule and vilification Bloomberg got last fall for not accepting the facts about Sandy? People on here were looking at the charts and information and saying "how can he deny what's happening?"
Member Since: January 6, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 1903
548. GeorgiaStormz
3:28 PM GMT on April 09, 2013
N GA

WITH MAYBE 400-800 MLCAPE SPREADING INTO NORTH GA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BOTH MODELS SHOW A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE
STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILES... WHICH WOULD SERVE TO ENHANCE
EXPECTED SQUALL LINE CONVECTION PUSHING ACROSS ALABAMA AND INTO NW
AND WEST CENTRAL GA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME... IT APPEARS
THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS FROM BOWING ECHOES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE EXPECTED SQUALL LINE. HOWEVER... A LOW CAPE...HIGH WIND
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES... ESPECIALLY IF
ANY ISOLATED SUPER CELL STORMS CAN DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE SQUALL
LINE.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9470
547. LargoFl
3:26 PM GMT on April 09, 2013
Quoting RitaEvac:


The problem with that is...everybody in the south has guns...which is a whole other story.
LOL you got that right..just imagine the land wars etc..whew...and with the much colder temps..what would happen to our crops etc...well scientists say florida would still be much the same, tropical and warm..probably texas too..southern part anyway.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33491
546. weathermanwannabe
3:24 PM GMT on April 09, 2013
On the GW issues; you notice I sit on the fence (and part of that is that I am not as informed on this issue as others on here). This should be a teaching blog (as it was in past years and meant to be) so folks should really stick to the basic facts (posting articles and the like) and letting others make their mind up independently rather than any form of attacks, ridicule, or being condescending.

As a layman on GW issues, I cannot ignore what appears to be warming anomalies around the globe in recent years but I also think that lots of folks cherry pick information and new studies/papers/article as they come out to support their respective positions.

A lot of information to digest and folks should just be respectful of the various positions out there; I know where Dr. Master's stands on the issue but I don't criticize or attack him on here just because of his belief (backed by science).
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8310
545. RitaEvac
3:24 PM GMT on April 09, 2013
Quoting LargoFl:
ok the ICE age is NOW..ok so how far down do the Glaciers go??.........................just imagine..how many millions of people would have to flee south wow


The problem with that is...everybody in the south has guns...which is a whole other story.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
544. LargoFl
3:23 PM GMT on April 09, 2013
Quoting kwgirl:
Good Morning all. Hey Largo, I am coming your way this weekend. I plan on going to Sarasota and see the Ringling Museum and home. Will I have nice weather?
Hiya, well it will be hot,80's and friday we are looking at a 50% rain chance..people around me are saying probably the afternoon rain showers we usually get in the summer...we'll see.....well have a great time there..sarasota is beautiful with lots to see there..have fun
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33491
543. GeorgiaStormz
3:22 PM GMT on April 09, 2013
per BMX

MODELS HAVE TRENDED LESS
IMPRESSIVE WITH THE OVERALL LOW LEVEL WINDS. THERE IS VERY LITTLE
TURNING WITH HEIGHT IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS WITH STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS.
THE SREF ONLY INDICATES ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCES OF HAVING 0-1 KM
HELICITY ABOVE 150 M2/S2 THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...EXPECT THE
TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LOW BUT WE STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG THE SQUALL LINE. HAIL
STILL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF A THREAT WITH SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES. ADDITIONALLY...WITH PW VALUES VERY HIGH...EXPECT UPDRAFTS
WILL BE RATHER WATER LOADED AND UPDRAFT INTENSITY REDUCED
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9470
542. bappit
3:20 PM GMT on April 09, 2013
Quoting hydrus:

That image shows the source of the cap quite well.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5563
541. kwgirl
3:20 PM GMT on April 09, 2013
Good Morning all. Hey Largo, I am coming your way this weekend. I plan on going to Sarasota and see the Ringling Museum and home. Will I have nice weather?
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
540. LargoFl
3:18 PM GMT on April 09, 2013
OK SO FLORIDIANS DONT HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT AN ICE AGE......Not all of North America was covered in ice during the Ice Age. In Florida, for instance, the climate was a lot like it is today—tropical and hot. The southwestern part of the continent also provided refuge for creatures that preferred warmer weather. Some of these animals were pretty bizarre, even by Ice Age standards. The glyptodon, for example, looked like nothing alive today. This 8-foot-long mammal had teeth like a mouse and a furry face, but its body was protected by a hard turtlelike shell. A little armored cap and a tail sheathed in an armored tube were further protection against predators such as sabertooth tigers. Though the glyptodon was as big as a modern-day car, it was probably a gentle giant. It ate only plants.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33491
539. redwagon
3:12 PM GMT on April 09, 2013
Quoting calkevin77:
Good morning all. Its a warm and muggy start to the day here just North of Austin. 91% humidity so there is quite a bit of moisture available. This should make for an interesting evening as the cold front passes through. I've come to the conclusion that in my area the severe weather events like to roll through on Tuesday night/Wednesday mornings. Timed perfectly between our allowed lawn watering days :)

You know, that's right! West of Austin in the hills here, and it only rains Tue-Thurs.

1900 isn't here yet, he's been studying this setup. Accumulated CAPE should be 2500-3000 for us by showtime
at 4 or 5, which is about half the Jarrell twister.

Here's hoping our internet doesn't go out!
Member Since: August 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2813
538. GeorgiaStormz
3:12 PM GMT on April 09, 2013
AS REGION GETS INTO HIGHLY DIFFLUENT COUPLED UPPER JET
STRUCTURE,WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL BREAKING OF CAP SHOULD OCCUR
ALONG/W OF MS RIVER LATE WED AFTERNOON...AND ORIENTATION OF 2-8 KM
SHEAR VECTORS SUGGEST THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY COULD BE DISCRETE AND
SUPERCELLULAR
. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF SVR TO WX GRIDS AFTER 21Z IN
ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A RATHER
PROLONGED SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAIN EVENT WHICH WILL LIKELY BECOME
INCREASINGLY DOMINATED BY A SLOW MOVING QLCS

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9470
537. LargoFl
3:11 PM GMT on April 09, 2013
ok the ICE age is NOW..ok so how far down do the Glaciers go??.........................just imagine..how many millions of people would have to flee south wow
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33491
536. LargoFl
3:10 PM GMT on April 09, 2013
Quoting hydrus:
Neat stuff..I always tried to imagine what might have lived beneath me when sailing the gulf.....and I have been all over it.
..yeah hydrus, i think the shelf goes out 200 miles doesnt it?..that all was dry land at one time
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33491
535. Naga5000
3:10 PM GMT on April 09, 2013
Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't like the rude comments people make towards other when they don't believe in G.W on here.If they don't believe that is their business.


It's like people not believing in gravity. Laughable.
Member Since: June 1, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 2741
534. SouthTampa
3:08 PM GMT on April 09, 2013
Quoting washingtonian115:
The only logic here is that insulting people will not make them believe in more than what they believe in.That was the whole point of my first post I made.
Sure I don't agree with my dad's politics and he has insulted me in the past for not doing so but him insulting me didn't make me side with him and have some light bulb go off in my head.
The point is not to get them to agree with logic and reason. They have proven to be beyond that, so all that is left is ridicule or to ignore them. I usually ignore but I understand the perspective of those who ridicule. I have no issue with Nea and others calling them out. In fact, I rather enjoy it. He's definitely not crass, so why all the whining?

If one cannot take an insult (non-threatening and non-crude, of course) when they repeatedly make a ham-handed argument, then perhaps they shouldn't be on the internet. This is a public forum. If you make an ignorant or illogical statement, expect someone to call you on it with varying levels of contempt.
Member Since: June 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 111
533. Neapolitan
3:04 PM GMT on April 09, 2013
Quoting washingtonian115:
...insulting people will not make them believe in more than what they believe in.
You know what else doesn't work? Presenting contrarian types with facts, pointing them to the mountains of available evidence, and speaking to them in calm and soothing tones so as not to hurt their feelings. Believe me; we've tried. So some of us now abide by the wisdom of Thomas Jefferson: "Ridicule is the only weapon which can be used against unintelligible propositions."

You can't go wrong listening to one of the Founding Fathers, can you? ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13306
532. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:04 PM GMT on April 09, 2013
Quoting bappit:
Does anyone know what trowaling is? Saw that in some forecast discussions.


susscession of systems
following along a frontal boundary
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52401
531. ILwthrfan
3:00 PM GMT on April 09, 2013
This may be an outflow, maybe a gravity wave in Northeast Kansas, Northwest Missouri, and Southwest Iowa. It has that rippling characteristic you see in gravity waves.

Click Picture for Loop.



Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1403
530. hydrus
2:57 PM GMT on April 09, 2013
Sun's Magnetic 'Heartbeat' Revealed.....Link
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19608
529. hydrus
2:50 PM GMT on April 09, 2013
Quoting LargoFl:
FLORIDA IN THE LAST ICE AGE..WOW WE LOST ALOT WHEN IT MELTED..
Neat stuff..I always tried to imagine what might have lived beneath me when sailing the gulf.....and I have been all over it.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19608
528. calkevin77
2:46 PM GMT on April 09, 2013
Good morning all. Its a warm and muggy start to the day here just North of Austin. 91% humidity so there is quite a bit of moisture available. This should make for an interesting evening as the cold front passes through. I've come to the conclusion that in my area the severe weather events like to roll through on Tuesday night/Wednesday mornings. Timed perfectly between our allowed lawn watering days :)
Member Since: June 9, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 794
527. LargoFl
2:46 PM GMT on April 09, 2013
so IF i am understanding what ive been reading, it is the gulf stream itself that determines if we are in a warm climate period or a cold climate..that and the rotation and orbit of the Earth and..the suns output..........am i correct in this?
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33491
526. hydrus
2:45 PM GMT on April 09, 2013
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19608
525. washingtonian115
2:44 PM GMT on April 09, 2013
Quoting SouthTampa:
Sometimes, when logic and reason escape the conversation, ridicule and sarcasm are the only tools left. I appreciate you carrying the flag, Nea, and fully endorse your manner of handling illogical posters.
The only logic here is that insulting people will not make them believe in more than what they believe in.That was the whole point of my first post I made.
Sure I don't agree with my dad's politics and he has insulted me in the past for not doing so but him insulting me didn't make me side with him and have some light bulb go off in my head.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15738
524. nrtiwlnvragn
2:43 PM GMT on April 09, 2013
Quoting beell:


trough of warm air aloft

TROWAL


But only to the Canucks?


Link
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 13 Comments: 10473
523. LargoFl
2:42 PM GMT on April 09, 2013
ALL IT TAKES IS A DISRUPTION OF THE GULF STREAM TO START AN ICE AGE???........this from the UK Daily Mail..............It took just six months for a warm and sunny Europe to be engulfed in ice, according to new research.

Previous studies have suggested the arrival of the last Ice Age nearly 13,000 years ago took about a decade - but now scientists believe the process was up to 20 times as fast.

In scenes reminiscent of the Hollywood blockbuster The day After Tomorrow, the Northern Hemisphere was frozen by a sudden slowdown of the Gulf Stream, which allowed ice to spread hundreds of miles southwards from the Arctic.

Geological sciences professor William Patterson, who led the research, said: 'It would have been very sudden for those alive at the time. It would be the equivalent of taking Britain and moving it to the Arctic over the space of a few months.'

Professor Patterson's findings emerged from one of the most painstaking studies of climate changes ever attempted and reinforce the theory that the earth's climate is unstable and can switch between warm and cold incredibly quickly.

His conclusions, published in New Scientist, are based on a study of mud deposits extracted from a lake in Western Ireland, Lough Monreagh - a region he describes as having the 'best mud in the world in scientific terms'.



Professor Patterson used a precision robotic scalpel to scrape off layers of mud just 0.5mm thick. Each layer represented three months of sediment deposition, so variations between them could be used to measure changes in temperature over very short periods


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-122 7990/Ice-Age-took-just-SIX-months-arrive--10-years .html#ixzz2PyechLuk
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33491
522. pcola57
2:38 PM GMT on April 09, 2013
Quoting hydrus:
Now I,m homesick...I need to make a trip down there , but cannot leave due to mothers fragile health. I would love to catch snapper and make home made onion rings and eat them. Just like back when.


that's a coincidence..
I my self am living/taking care of my mom also..
It limits me in what I can do but I will catch up later in life..
I commend your helping your mom..
GB you.. :)
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6667
521. beell
2:38 PM GMT on April 09, 2013
Quoting bappit:
Does anyone know what trowaling is? Saw that in some forecast discussions.


trough of warm air aloft

TROWAL
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 137 Comments: 15356
520. washingtonian115
2:35 PM GMT on April 09, 2013
Quoting Neapolitan:
I'm of the opinion that people making laughable statements should expect to be laughed at.Sure it is. But once they post that belief in a public forum, it becomes everyone's business. Wouldn't you agree?
Yes but if they choose not to beleive then oh well.Insulting them isn't going to make them start beleiving in G.W and have a light bulb go off in their head.Its like me telling the people that live on a barrier island to evacuate because of the a storm surge that will drown them out.You can warn them all you want but they have to see to beleive.

Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 15738
519. LargoFl
2:34 PM GMT on April 09, 2013
Quoting bappit:
Does anyone know what trowaling is? Saw that in some forecast discussions.
...........Air masses are parcels of air that bring distinctive weather features to the country. ..... This wedge shaped mass of warm air is known as a trowel in Canada.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33491
518. LargoFl
2:32 PM GMT on April 09, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33491
517. bappit
2:31 PM GMT on April 09, 2013
Does anyone know what trowaling is? Saw that in some forecast discussions.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5563
516. bappit
2:30 PM GMT on April 09, 2013
Quoting hydrus:

Saw this comment in a Sioux City discussion.

AT ANY RATE THROUGHOUT OUR ZONES IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...THIS COULD LIKELY TURN OUT TO BE ONE OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORMS WE HAVE HAD IN QUITE SOME TIME WHEN ONE CONSIDERS SNOW POTENTIAL...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AND WINDS.

FOR NOW...HAVE AROUND 16 INCHES OF SNOW FORECAST FOR OUR ZONES IN CENTRAL SD LIKE AROUND CHAMBERLAIN AND HURON. GIVEN THE LATEST DATA...WAS ALSO FORCED TO RAISE SNOW AMOUNTS FROM BROOKINGS TO MARSHALL IN A RATHER BIG WAY DUE TO THE SNOW EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. ALSO RAISED SNOW AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT FOR SIOUX FALLS AND SIOUX CITY.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5563
515. LargoFl
2:29 PM GMT on April 09, 2013
Sea levels have had a profound effect on both Florida's geology and ecology. The fossil record indicates a mass migration of plants and animals occurred between North and South America approximately 2 million years ago, when sea levels were much lower and a land bridge connected North America. During the last ice age, Florida was as much as three times the current land area
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514. ncstorm
2:29 PM GMT on April 09, 2013
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
ILC007-111-201-091500-
/O.NEW.KLOT.SV.W.0003.130409T1426Z-130409T1500Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
926 AM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN BOONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHWESTERN MCHENRY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS...
NORTHEASTERN WINNEBAGO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 1000 AM CDT

* AT 922 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MACHESNEY
PARK...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. NICKEL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED EARLIER IN
THIS AREA ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKER STORMS.

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
POPLAR GROVE AND CAPRON.


I-90 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 76.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4225 8902 4241 8915 4250 8896 4250 8885
4250 8844
TIME...MOT...LOC 1426Z 238DEG 38KT 4238 8897

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH

$$

LENNING
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13481
513. ncstorm
2:26 PM GMT on April 09, 2013
well here is one..

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
918 AM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

IAC013-023-075-091445-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-130409T1445Z/
GRUNDY IA-BLACK HAWK IA-BUTLER IA-
918 AM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
BUTLER...NORTHWESTERN BLACK HAWK AND NORTHEASTERN GRUNDY COUNTIES
UNTIL 945 AM CDT...

AT 914 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF PARKERSBURG...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES AND CROPS IS EXPECTED.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GRUNDY...EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN BUTLER AND NORTHWESTERN BLACK HAWK COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4242 9266 4250 9274 4264 9260 4264 9228
TIME...MOT...LOC 1419Z 228DEG 41KT 4252 9258

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH

$$

COGIL
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13481
512. LargoFl
2:25 PM GMT on April 09, 2013
FLORIDA IN THE LAST ICE AGE..WOW WE LOST ALOT WHEN IT MELTED..
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511. Skyepony (Mod)
2:22 PM GMT on April 09, 2013
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36175
510. LargoFl
2:21 PM GMT on April 09, 2013
CAN GW BRING ON...ANOTHER ICE AGE??????.............As only 11,000 years has passed since the last Ice Age, scientists can not be certain that we are indeed living in a post-glacial Holocene epoch instead of an interglacial period of the Pleistocene and thus due for another ice age in the geologic future. Some scientists believe that an increase in global temperature, as we are now experiencing, could be a sign of an impending ice age and could actually increase the amount of ice on the earth's surface.

The cold, dry air above the Arctic and Antarctica carries little moisture and drops little snow on the regions. An increase in global temperature could increase the amount of moisture in the air and increase the amount of snowfall. After years of more snowfall than melting, the polar regions could accumulate more ice. An accumulation of ice would lead to a lowering of the level of the oceans and there would be further, unanticipated changes in the global climate system as well.

Our short history on earth and our shorter record of the climate keeps us from fully understanding the implications of global warming. Without a doubt, an increase in the earth's temperature will have major consequences for all life on this planet.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33491
509. ncstorm
2:20 PM GMT on April 09, 2013
well..the blog was doing so well up until those last posts and with that I shall be back later if any watches or warnings materialize..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13481
508. LargoFl
2:17 PM GMT on April 09, 2013
Ice ages last for some tens of millions of years with intervals of about 150 million years between them. The term is used more loosely to identify the last time that ice sheets covered much of Europe and North America.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33491
507. SouthTampa
2:17 PM GMT on April 09, 2013
Quoting Neapolitan:
I'm of the opinion that people making laughable statements should expect to be laughed at.Sure it is. But once they post that belief in a public forum, it becomes everyone's business. Wouldn't you agree?
Sometimes, when logic and reason escape the conversation, ridicule and sarcasm are the only tools left. I appreciate you carrying the flag, Nea, and fully endorse your manner of handling illogical posters.
Member Since: June 18, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 111
506. LargoFl
2:15 PM GMT on April 09, 2013
many scientists say the next Ice Age will come within the next 300 years..if we look back..when the ice age does come..it lasts for a very long time...perhaps that will be the end time for humans..or at the very least..the end of civilization as we now know it...could that be..why govt is so concerned about searching the planets and space exploration?...do they know something they are not telling us?...who knows.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33491
505. bappit
2:14 PM GMT on April 09, 2013
Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't like the rude comments people make towards other when they don't believe in G.W on here.If they don't believe that is their business.

I think it is more a question of understanding than belief. Instead of being rude, people should react with understanding: "There, there."
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5563
504. LargoFl
2:12 PM GMT on April 09, 2013
Thursday is going to quite active in here i guess....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33491

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.