Europe expected to see a large increase in Hurricane Sandy-like hybrid storms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:18 PM GMT on April 08, 2013

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Watch out, Europe. Dangerous part-hurricane, part extratropical hybrid storms like Hurricane Sandy of 2012 are expected to be an increasing threat for Western Europe by the end of the century due to global warming, said a team of scientists led by Reindert J. Haarsma of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute. In a paper called "More hurricanes to hit Western Europe due to global warming", published in April 2013 in Geophysical Research Letters, the researchers describe the results from runs of a high-resolution (25 km grid spacing) climate model based on the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) numerical weather prediction model. The model predicts that the breeding ground for Atlantic hurricanes will shift approximately 700 miles eastwards as the oceans warm this century. Hurricanes which form farther to the east can spend more time over warm tropical waters before turning north and northeast towards Europe, increasing the odds that these storms will have hurricane-force winds upon arrival in Europe. The model showed that wind shear will change little in the region over the coming decades, resulting in a large increase in storms with hurricane-force winds affecting Western Europe. Most of the these storms will not be tropical hurricanes upon arrival in Europe, but will be former hurricanes that have transitioned to extratropical storms. However, as we saw with Hurricane Sandy of 2012, these hybrid storms can be extremely dangerous. Summed over Norway, the North Sea, and the Gulf of Biscay, the model found that the number of hurricane-force storms in August - October increased from 2 to 13 over the 21st century, with almost all future West European hurricane-force storms predicted to originate as hurricanes or tropical storms in the tropics by 2100. The researchers conclude that "tropical cyclones will increase the probability of present-day extreme events over the North Sea and the Gulf of Biscay with a factor of 5 and 25 respectively, with far reaching consequences especially for coastal safety."


Figure 1. Hurricane Sandy at 10:10 am EDT October 28, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Europe's hurricane history
Only once since accurate records began in 1851 has an actual hurricane with full tropical characteristics hit Europe. This happened on September 16, 1961, when Category 1 Hurricane Debbie hit northwestern Ireland. Wind gusts reached 106 mph at Ballykelly and 104 mph at Tiree and Snaefill, and coastal radio stations reported the airwaves were jammed with calls for help from small ships and fishing craft. Eleven people were killed and 50 injured in the storm. The only other tropical cyclone recorded to have hit Europe since 1851 was Hurricane Vince of 2005, which hit southern Spain as a tropical depression on October 11, 2005. Historical documents also suggest a hurricane hit Spain on October 29, 1842.


Figure 2. Hurricane Debbie of 1961 was the only fully tropical hurricane ever recorded to hit Europe.

Britain's history of ex-hurricane strikes
Hurricanes that transition to powerful extratropical storms hit the British Isles several times per decade, on average. In 2011, Hurricane Katia brushed by Newfoundland, made the transition from a tropical system to a powerful extratropical storm, and maintained strong winds of 50 - 65 mph as it crossed the Atlantic. Ex-Katia hit northern Scotland on September 12, 2011. Glen Ogle, Scotland, at an elevation of 1500 feet (546 meters), received sustained winds of 60 mph, gusting to 86 mph. Cairngorm, in the Scottish Highlands at an elevation of 4085 feet, reported sustained winds of 67 mph. With the trees in full leaf, tree damage was much higher than a winter or springtime storm of similar ferocity would have caused. One person was killed by a falling tree, and heavy tree damage and numerous power failures were reported throughout Britain. Other gusts experienced in Britain included 76 mph at Edinburgh Blackford Hill, 75 mph at Capel Curig in Wales, 72 mph at Glasgow Bishopton, and 71 mph at Loftus, North Yorkshire.


Figure 3. Image of Hurricane Katia taken from the International Space Station at 15 GMT September 9, 2011, by astronaut Ron Garan. At the time, Katia was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Long Island, New York is visible at the lower left.


Figure 4. Surface wind estimate from the Windsat satellite at 4:04 am EDT on Monday, September 12, 2011. The center of Extratropical Storm Katia is marked by an "L", and winds in excess of 50 knots (58 mph, purple triangles) were occurring to the southwest of the center, near the west coast of Ireland. Image credit: NOAA.

As reported by UK Met Office forecaster John Hammond in a post on the BBC 23 degrees blog, Britain has been affected at least eight times in the past twenty years by extratropical storms that were once tropical storms or hurricanes. Before Katia of 2011, the most recent such storm was Hurricane Bill of 2009, which hit Ireland as an extratropical storm on August 25 with sustained winds of 45 mph. Bill was a Category 4 hurricane northeast of the Lesser Antilles five days prior. In 2006, a record three extratropical storms that had once been tropical cyclones hit Britain:

Extratropical Storm Alberto, which had been a strong tropical storm that hit the Florida Panhandle, hit northern Ireland and Scotland as an extratropical storm with 35 mph winds.

Extratropical Storm Gordon hit Ireland on September 21, 2006, with sustained winds of 65 mph. Gordon brought record warm temperatures as tropical air pushed north across the UK, and also strong winds that brought down power lines in Northern Ireland. Wind gusts to 60 mph (97 km/h) occurred in the Isles of Scilly off the southwest coast, and 81 mph (130 km/h) on the mainland.

Extratropical Storm Helene hit Northwestern Ireland on September 27, 2006, with sustained winds of 45 mph.

Figure 5. Path of Hurricane Lili of 1996, which caused $420 million in damage to the U.K. as an extratropical storm.

Other post-tropical cyclones that have the U.K. in the past twenty years include Hurricanes Isaac and Leslie of 2000, Hurricane Karl of 1998, and Hurricane Lili of 1996. The most severe of these storms was Extratropical Storm Lili, which hit Ireland on October 28, 1996, with sustained winds of 65 mph. Lili caused $420 million in damage (2011 dollars) in the U.K. According to Wikipedia, Lili produced a 92 mph (148 km/h) gust at Swansea, South Wales, while bringing a 4' (1.2 meter) storm surge that inundated the River Thames. In Somerset, 500 holiday cottages were severely damaged. A U.S. oil drilling platform, under tow in the North Sea, broke loose during the storm and nearly ran aground at Peterhead. On the Isle of Wight, a sailing boat was beached at Chale Bay; luckily all five occupants were rescued. It was the most damaging storm to have struck the United Kingdom since the Great Storm of 1987, which killed 22 and did $660 million in damage (1996 dollars.) However, Lili also broke a four-month drought over southwest England.

All but one of these storms hit during the peak part of hurricane season, mid-August - late October. The only exception was Ex-Tropical Storm Alberto of 2006, which hit Britain in June.


Figure 6. Hybrid subtropical storm of October 8, 1996, off the coast of Italy. According to Reale and Atlas (2001), the storm had characteristics similar to a hurricane, but formed over cool waters of 21.5°C (71°F.) They reported that "The maximum damage due to wind occurred over the Aeolian Islands, at 38.5°N, 15°E, to the northeast of Sicily: assistance for disaster relief was required. Unfortunately, no weather station data were available, but the media reported sheds, roofs and harbor devices destroyed, and houses and electric lines damaged, due to 'extremely strong westerly wind.' The perfect agreement between the observations at Ustica, the storm scale, the eye-like feature position and the damages over the Aeolian Island reasonably suggest that the hurricane-level intensity of 32 m/s (72 mph) was reached over the Aeolian Islands." A similar hybrid low affected Algeria on 9 - 10 November 2001. This storm produced upwards of 270 mm (10.6") of rain, winds of 33 m/s (74 mph), and killed 737 people near Algiers, mostly from flooding and mud slides. Image credit: Dundee satellite receiving station.

Hurricanes in the Mediterranean Sea?
The Mediterranean Sea between Europe and Africa has experienced several damaging hybrid subtropical storms in recent decades, but has never experienced a fully tropical hurricane in recorded history. However, global warming may cause the Mediterranean to start spawning hurricanes by 2100, according to a 2007 study by a research team led by Miguel Angel Gaertner of the University of Castilla-La Mancha in Toledo, Spain. They ran nine different climate models with resolutions of about 50 km and found that some (but not all) of the models simulated hurricanes in the Mediterranean in September by the end of the century, when ocean temperature could increase by 3°C, reaching 30°C.

Though the Mediterranean may start seeing hurricanes by the end of the century, these storms should be rare and relatively short-lived for three reasons:

1) The Mediterranean is quite far north and is subject to strong wind shear from jet stream activity.

2) The waters are shallow, and have relatively low heat content. There is no deep warm water current like the Gulf Stream.

3) The Mediterranean has a lot of large islands and peninsulas poking into it, increasing the chances that a tropical storm would weaken when it encountered land.

References
Gaertner, M. A., D. Jacob, V. Gil, M. Dominguez, E. Padorno, E. Sanchez, and M. Castro (2007), Tropical cyclones over the Mediterranean Sea in climate change simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L14711, doi:10.1029/2007GL029977.

Haarsma et al., 2013, More hurricanes to hit Western Europe due to global warming, Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/grl.50360

Reale, O., and R. Atlas. 2001: Tropical Cyclone-Like Vortices in the Extratropics: Observational Evidence and Synoptic Analysis, Weather and Forecasting, 16, No. 1, pp. 7-34.

Jeff Masters

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Here this will keep the AGW crowd busy today - Spindoctors Assemble !!

Link
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Evening folks. Together with the area of tropical storms the wine production seems to move too. In my region near Rhine River they already start to cultivate sorts of grapes which would have never grown here in earlier times. On the other hand they had to slip some sorts which don't feel comfortable any longer because of CC.

Wine Production Seen Shifting From Bordeaux to N.Z. on Climate
By Phoebe Sedgman - Apr 9, 2013

Areas suitable for viticulture may decline from Bordeaux to Australia as climate change prompts a shift in wine production to higher latitudes and elevations in New Zealand and the Northern Hemisphere, researchers said.

Suitable grape-growing areas may drop 68 percent in Mediterranean Europe by 2050 and fall 73 percent in regions of Australia with a so-called Mediterranean climate, according to a study published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. New Zealand’s suitable area will more than double and it will also surge in northern Europe and western North America, it said.

Whole article on Bloomberg's
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Quoting LargoFl:

alot of scientists are warning about the solar slowdown thats happening..could that in itself..cause us to cool down on earth?..

Even if the sun did fall to Maunder Minimum levels the decrease in temperature from the sun is minimal compared to the warming from man-made greenhouse gases

"So we can rest assured, there is no ice age around the corner. To those with lingering doubts that an ice age might be imminent, turn your eyes towards the northern ice sheets. If they're growing, then yes, the 10,000 year process of glaciation may have begun. However, currently the Arctic permafrost is degrading, Arctic sea ice is melting and the Greenland ice sheet is losing mass at an accelerating rate. These are hardly good conditions for an imminent ice age."
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Quoting Levi32:


There is nothing "extreme" about this jet. Nowadays every kink is dubbed with that adjective it seems.



Its definitely not as extreme as 2 troughs in april 2 years ago....

just your average trough...
similiar to the christmas one but further north.
Happens every spring.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9719
600. beell
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


But only to the Canucks?


Link



i'm sticking my trough out at you, nrt...
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Looking like a one-two punch in store for the Conus today between the mid-west low and severe weather potential and the storms to the North and the Great Lakes region aided by the "lake effect".......Pretty active period, on both fronts, for the month of April.

No surprise that California and the Mid-West are getting hammered..........Look at this extreme kink in the polar jet today with an independent branch over the great lakes; not good:

Link

Quoting OrchidGrower:


Crazy kink in the jet stream for this time of year. That could be murder on tree crops that are trying to set fruit, etc.

Is this primarily a phenomenon of a negative NAO? It seems like the last couple of years have been rather dominated by extremes: either a flat-lining jet stream trapped mostly far to the north, or a jet with the kinds of loop-de-loops that would make a rollercoaster proud.


There is nothing "extreme" about this jet. Nowadays every kink is dubbed with that adjective it seems.

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Quoting calkevin77:


I've been on brush fire calls with a couple of the guys from Jarrell. I was too young at the time to be a first responder but some of the things I've heard them discuss are horrific. The winds were so powerful that asphalt was torn from the roads and that debris the size of popsicle sticks had cut through tree trunks like butter. Basically the folks that had been in the twister's path had no chance as the debris alone was like a grinder. Unlike so many other places we do not have basements here. You find them in houses where there is a prominent frostline as that is the reason why they are built. If I ever see a twister coming my way I'm popping up the manhole cover in front of my house and heading below.
I remember that tornado well...It was one of the worst I have seen.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20487
Quoting Naga5000:


I know, but every so often they let a nugget of truth slip out. I've always found it hilarious that all the British and Irish Pubs in Florida always have The Daily Mail avaliable. :)


Do they have dart boards and Guinness?
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Quoting VR46L:


Umm The Daily Mail is a tabloid ! It is sold in tabloid form in the UK and Ireland ...


I know, but every so often they let a nugget of truth slip out. I've always found it hilarious that all the British and Irish Pubs in Florida always have The Daily Mail available. :)
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Back to the nicer range of temps. 57.6/69.7 yesterday, normal is 49/74
Today should be Nice. Wind Advisory till 2PM. I see the Santa Ana radar
is down. Wind break it? I heard on the News last night the wind was 74mph
at Whitaker Peak which is up by Castaic Dam. Wonder what the wind was at
the radar site.
Good Afternoon to most of you.
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594. VR46L
Quoting Naga5000:


The Daily Mail is so close to being a tabloid. It's more entertainment than serious news.


Umm The Daily Mail is a tabloid ! It is sold in tabloid form in the UK and Ireland ...
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I have just broken 80F degrees for the first time in 2013. Three cheers for the sun. :D
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Quoting OrchidGrower:


Crazy kink in the jet stream for this time of year. That could be murder on tree crops that are trying to set fruit, etc.

Is this primarily a phenomenon of a negative NAO? It seems like the last couple of years have been rather dominated by extremes: either a flat-lining jet stream trapped mostly far to the north, or a jet with the kinds of loop-de-loops that would make a rollercoaster proud.


Dr. Master's has posted a few journal article links suggesting that polar ice loss may be responsible for these kinks........I have no clue as to what is causing this phenomenon............
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8770
Quoting LargoFl:
alot of scientists are warning about the solar slowdown thats happening..could that in itself..cause us to cool down on earth?..


No, AGW is of much greater magnitude.
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Quoting OrchidGrower:


Crazy kink in the jet stream for this time of year. That could be murder on tree crops that are trying to set fruit, etc.

Is this primarily a phenomenon of a negative NAO? It seems like the last couple of years have been rather dominated by extremes: either a flat-lining jet stream trapped mostly far to the north, or a jet with the kinds of loop-de-loops that would make a rollercoaster proud.


Erratic jet stream activity in recent years is believed to be due to melting of polar ice caps and northern snow fields. This decreases the temperature contrast between Arctic and temperate latitude air masses.

This would mean that it is not a short term effect, but a new climate regime.
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Davenport, IA (KDVN) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)



Goodland, KS (KGLD) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)

Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6770
Looks like SPC downgraded convectivity from moderate to slight for their latest report.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk .html
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Looking like a one-two punch in store for the Conus today between the mid-west low and severe weather potential and the storms to the North and the Great Lakes region aided by the "lake effect".......Pretty active period, on both fronts, for the month of April.

No surprise that California and the Mid-West are getting hammered..........Look at this extreme kink in the polar jet today with an independent branch over the great lakes; not good:

Link



Crazy kink in the jet stream for this time of year. That could be murder on tree crops that are trying to set fruit, etc.

Is this primarily a phenomenon of a negative NAO? It seems like the last couple of years have been rather dominated by extremes: either a flat-lining jet stream trapped mostly far to the north, or a jet with the kinds of loop-de-loops that would make a rollercoaster proud.
Member Since: September 24, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 385
Congratulations Dr. Masters for your photo making World View this week (#16).
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New Video is up. Enjoy....



See if you can spot the birds and the planes.

Good Night. Stay aware, be prepared. Keep and eagle eye on the sky. Stay tuned to your WX radios.
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Hey Lubbock, cold front inbound:



70's ahead, 40's behind...

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well thats it for me, its way too nice outside to be sitting around playing on the web..have a great day folks..stay safe out there.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36847
me i like the warm temps, i cannot imagine..living in a place like hmm say way northern Canada where it stays -35 degree's for months on end..i have no idea how long their summer is up there..but imagine a winter lasting oh..8-9 months out of the year..nope not me.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36847
alot of scientists are warning about the solar slowdown thats happening..could that in itself..cause us to cool down on earth?..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36847
Quoting FunnelVortex:


I don't think the glaciers will get that far south in the next ice age. Just to the Canadian border.
yep they will at that..because if they cross the border, they have to pay a toll and go thru a security chek lol
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36847
Looking like a one-two punch in store for the Conus today between the mid-west low and severe weather potential and the storms to the North and the Great Lakes region aided by the "lake effect".......Pretty active period, on both fronts, for the month of April.

No surprise that California and the Mid-West are getting hammered..........Look at this extreme kink in the polar jet today with an independent branch over the great lakes; not good:

Link

Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8770
Roger Hill‏@rehill5718 min
Caught briefly tornadic supercell in CO Apr 9. Headed to southern OK today!
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Quoting redwagon:

The whole family that was killed in a 100% brick home.
They were hiding in the interior but that EF5 took up
their SLAB - RIP - and the actual road of the subdivision.

One of the saddest memories were emergency search workers having to be excused as they couldn't handle
the violence of the scene. Residents were angry they couldn't return to their property until emergency services convinced them they would be psychologically
damaged if allowed back in.


I've been on brush fire calls with a couple of the guys from Jarrell. I was too young at the time to be a first responder but some of the things I've heard them discuss are horrific. The winds were so powerful that asphalt was torn from the roads and that debris the size of popsicle sticks had cut through tree trunks like butter. Basically the folks that had been in the twister's path had no chance as the debris alone was like a grinder. Unlike so many other places we do not have basements here. You find them in houses where there is a prominent frostline as that is the reason why they are built. If I ever see a twister coming my way I'm popping up the manhole cover in front of my house and heading below.
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Quoting LargoFl:
LOL you got that right..just imagine the land wars etc..whew...and with the much colder temps..what would happen to our crops etc...well scientists say florida would still be much the same, tropical and warm..probably texas too..southern part anyway.


Sadly we here are already deluged with Yankee retirees who don't bother to complete their terminal migration to Florida anymore and instead settle here and demand this place become more like that which they fled (only warmer). More legislation from town and county governments resembling the over-regulated & over-populated NE, more HOA compounds to house the "environmentalists" who love their sod and fertilizers and irrigation while they bemoan the loss of oyster beds and lowering water tables. Yeah, let the Ice Age return hard and fast.
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Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14412
Quoting LargoFl:
ALL IT TAKES IS A DISRUPTION OF THE GULF STREAM TO START AN ICE AGE???........this from the UK Daily Mail..............It took just six months for a warm and sunny Europe to be engulfed in ice, according to new research.

Previous studies have suggested the arrival of the last Ice Age nearly 13,000 years ago took about a decade - but now scientists believe the process was up to 20 times as fast.

In scenes reminiscent of the Hollywood blockbuster The day After Tomorrow, the Northern Hemisphere was frozen by a sudden slowdown of the Gulf Stream, which allowed ice to spread hundreds of miles southwards from the Arctic.

Geological sciences professor William Patterson, who led the research, said: 'It would have been very sudden for those alive at the time. It would be the equivalent of taking Britain and moving it to the Arctic over the space of a few months.'

Professor Patterson's findings emerged from one of the most painstaking studies of climate changes ever attempted and reinforce the theory that the earth's climate is unstable and can switch between warm and cold incredibly quickly.

His conclusions, published in New Scientist, are based on a study of mud deposits extracted from a lake in Western Ireland, Lough Monreagh - a region he describes as having the 'best mud in the world in scientific terms'.



Professor Patterson used a precision robotic scalpel to scrape off layers of mud just 0.5mm thick. Each layer represented three months of sediment deposition, so variations between them could be used to measure changes in temperature over very short periods


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-122 7990/Ice-Age-took-just-SIX-months-arrive--10-years .html#ixzz2PyechLuk
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook


The Daily Mail is so close to being a tabloid. It's more entertainment than serious news.
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wider area

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Quoting LargoFl:
well THAT post was on ..IF..and ice age was happening now how far would the glaciers go..read and understand a post before you comment on it..ty


I don't think the glaciers will get that far south in the next ice age. Just to the Canadian border.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
here is the wave cloud area


when i converse with an experienced/knowledgeable chaser buddy, he likes to consider this type of gravity wave as 'undular bores' to be specific about them. i've given much credence to them on days like this, personally viewing them as initiation points and often become the pathways of rotating cells, possibly using the bore itself to rope tornadic vorticity.
i'm gonna stay peeled to this one, watching from my computer each unfolding moment!
meanwhile, i wish my buddy much success on his chase ^_^
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Quoting redwagon:

The whole family that was killed in a 100% brick home.
They were hiding in the interior but that EF5 took up
their SLAB - RIP - and the actual road of the subdivision.

One of the saddest memories were emergency search workers having to be excused as they couldn't handle
the violence of the scene. Residents were angry they couldn't return to their property until emergency services convinced them they would be psychologically
damaged if allowed back in.


That would be them then. Unless there were other families besides them.
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Quoting FunnelVortex:
Quoting LargoFl:
ok the ICE age is NOW..ok so how far down do the Glaciers go??.............just imagine..how many millions of people would have to flee south wow


Where are you getting this info? An ice age is not starting right now!
well THAT post was on ..IF..an ice age was happening now how far down would the glaciers go..read and understand a post before you comment on it..ty
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36847
Quoting LargoFl:
..well in my view, those touting GW everyday should understand what really could happen over the long haul with it..Europe went into an ice age in just 6 months..imagine..in 6 months...best we stay glued to local every day weather..


I belive we COULD go into an ice age suddenly, but I dont think it is going to happen in this decade...

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Quoting redwagon:

The whole family that was killed in a 100% brick home.
They were hiding in the interior but that EF5 took up
their SLAB - RIP - and the actual road of the subdivision.

One of the saddest memories were emergency search workers having to be excused as they couldn't handle
the violence of the scene. Residents were angry they couldn't return to their property until emergency services convinced them they would be psychologically
damaged if allowed back in.


It didn't help one bit that this EF-5 was moving about 3 mph. RIP.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36847
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Quoting RitaEvac:


My mother knew a lady that was killed in that Jarrell tornado, whole family was killed.

The whole family that was killed in a 100% brick home.
They were hiding in the interior but that EF5 took up
their SLAB - RIP - and the actual road of the subdivision.

One of the saddest memories were emergency search workers having to be excused as they couldn't handle
the violence of the scene. Residents were angry they couldn't return to their property until emergency services convinced them they would be psychologically
damaged if allowed back in.
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Is OKC always in the "red" area? Shees. If I lived there, I would move. I read somewhere that OKC averages a tornado touchdown a year? Crazy.
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Quoting FunnelVortex:


You've seen The Day After Tomorrow one-too-many times.
..well in my view, those touting GW everyday should understand what really could happen over the long haul with it..Europe went into an ice age in just 6 months..imagine..in 6 months...best we stay glued to local every day weather..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36847
here is the wave cloud area

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Quoting LargoFl:
CAN GW BRING ON...ANOTHER ICE AGE??????.............As only 11,000 years has passed since the last Ice Age, scientists can not be certain that we are indeed living in a post-glacial Holocene epoch instead of an interglacial period of the Pleistocene and thus due for another ice age in the geologic future. Some scientists believe that an increase in global temperature, as we are now experiencing, could be a sign of an impending ice age and could actually increase the amount of ice on the earth's surface.

The cold, dry air above the Arctic and Antarctica carries little moisture and drops little snow on the regions. An increase in global temperature could increase the amount of moisture in the air and increase the amount of snowfall. After years of more snowfall than melting, the polar regions could accumulate more ice. An accumulation of ice would lead to a lowering of the level of the oceans and there would be further, unanticipated changes in the global climate system as well.

Our short history on earth and our shorter record of the climate keeps us from fully understanding the implications of global warming. Without a doubt, an increase in the earth's temperature will have major consequences for all life on this planet.


You've seen The Day After Tomorrow one-too-many times.
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Don't know why Houston and Galveston is not in the wind advisory

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Quoting ILwthrfan:
This may be an outflow, maybe a gravity wave in Northeast Kansas, Northwest Missouri, and Southwest Iowa. It has that rippling characteristic you see in gravity waves.

Click Picture for Loop.







Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6770
Quoting redwagon:


I frankly don't know what to expect. I just remember Jarrell day, an employee telling me a twister was over
my house, me racing home amid jaw-dropping destruction.

Trucks upside-down in trees, large metal roofs almost surgically removed and sent elsewhere.. it was just crazy. That day Willie Nelson (among others) 'inherited' a boat in his back yard in Briarcliff when
the storm traversed Lake Travis.


My mother knew a lady that was killed in that Jarrell tornado, whole family was killed.
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Quoting LargoFl:
ok the ICE age is NOW..ok so how far down do the Glaciers go??.............just imagine..how many millions of people would have to flee south wow


Where are you getting this info? An ice age is not starting right now!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.