Nature's thermometers say spring is springing earlier by 3 days per decade

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:31 PM GMT on March 29, 2013

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In a welcome sign of spring, Washington DC's famous cherry trees are beginning to burst into bloom, with the peak bloom predicted to come around April 5. This is two weeks behind last year's peak bloom date of March 20, which was the third earliest on record, according the Capital Weather Gang at the Washington Post. The only earlier bloom dates in the National Park Service's 92-year record dating back to 1921 were March 15, 1990 and March 17, 2000. The average bloom date is April 4, and the latest bloom date on record was April 18, 1958.


Figure 1. Cherry blossoms on March 21, 2012, in Washington D.C. Image credit: wunderphotographer KEM.

Nature's thermometers are reacting to global warming
Flowering cherry trees are excellent "natural thermometers" that give evidence that the climate is warming. Their flowering time is highly sensitive to temperatures in February and March. Last year's early bloom was triggered by the record-warm "Summer in March" temperatures that gave DC its warmest March on record. February and March temperatures in Washington D.C. have warmed by nearly 3°F over the past century, causing the city's famous cherry trees to bloom, on average, five days earlier than they did in 1921. The earlier blooming times of D.C.'s cherry trees are part of a global trend towards earlier spring blooms. A 2007 study by Parmesan et al. found that Northern Hemisphere spring events such as flowering times, bird and butterfly migrations, and frog breeding times have been occurring an average of 2.8 days per decade earlier in spring since the 1950s, averaged over all species.


Figure 2. Average temperatures in Northeast Virginia, including the northwestern suburbs of Washington D.C., have warmed by nearly 3°F over the past century. Temperatures in 2012 were the warmest on record. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.


Figure 3. Comparison of the 1990 and 2012 USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Maps. Wintertime minimum temperatures in the U.S. have risen so much in recent decades that the United States Department of Agriculture decided in 2012 to update their Plant Hardiness Zone Map for gardeners for the first time since 1990. The Plant Hardiness Zone Map is the standard by which gardeners and growers can determine which plants are most likely to thrive at a location. The map is based on the average annual minimum winter temperature, divided into 10°F zones. Compared to the 1990 version, zone boundaries in the new 2012 edition of the map have generally shifted one 5°F half-zone warmer than the previous map throughout much of the United States. This is mostly a result of using temperature data from a longer and more recent time period. The old 1990 map was based on temperature data from only a 13-year period of 1974-1986, while the new map uses data from the 30-year period 1976-2005. Image credit: USDA and Arbor Day Foundation

The forecast: DC's cherry trees blooming in early March by 2080?
Using a computer model of spring bloom driven by the expected climate of this century from climate models, a 2011 paper by Chung et al. predicted that peak bloom of Washington D.C.'s cherry trees will come five days earlier by 2050, and ten days earlier by 2080, assuming a middle-of-the-road climate change scenario called A1B. However, carbon dioxide emissions are at record high levels, and humankind is currently on a path likely to cause much greater warming. Under a higher emission scenario, the authors predict that by 2080, the cherry trees will bloom in early March, nearly a full month earlier (29 days) than at present. One major concern the authors point out: shorter and warmer winters can reduce the cold hardening of trees, leaving them vulnerable to frost injury.


Figure 4. Past and projected peak bloom dates of the Yoshino cherry trees in Washington, DC and surrounding areas. The future projections were made under the IPCC middle-of-the-road emission scenario A1B (middle panel) and high emissions scenario A2 (right panel.) Humanity is currently burning oil, coal, and natural gas at a rate that puts us closer to the high emissions scenario. Image credit: Chung et al., 2011, "Predicting the Timing of Cherry Blossoms in Washington, DC and Mid-Atlantic States in Response to Climate Change", PLoS ONE 6(11): e27439. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0027439

Unusual winter jet stream patterns tied to Arctic sea ice loss may slow down cherry tree blooming changes
However, the authors' cherry tree bloom model did not take into account the fact that unusual jet stream contortions in winter have become increasingly common in recent years, increasing the odds of cold winters over the Eastern U.S. According to a March 2013 paper by Tang et al., "Cold winter extremes in northern continents linked to Arctic sea ice loss", wintertime Arctic sea ice loss can cause an increase in unusual jet stream patterns capable of bringing cold, snowy weather to the Eastern U.S., Western Europe, and East Asia. They theorized that sea ice loss in the Arctic promotes more evaporation, resulting in earlier snowfall in Siberia and other Arctic lands. The earlier snow insulates the soil, allowing the land to cool more rapidly. This results in a southwards shift of the jet stream and builds higher atmospheric pressures farther to the south, which increases the odds of cold spells and blocking high pressure systems that can cause extended periods of unusually cold and snowy weather in the Eastern U.S., Western Europe, and East Asia. Climate scientist Stefan Rahmstorf has an intriguing blog post (translated from the German by Eli Rabbett) that shows a dramatic agreement between temperature and pressure patterns during March 2013, and those expected to occur as a result of Arctic sea ice loss. He concludes, "In my view, the above studies provide strong evidence for a link between Arctic ice loss due to global warming, more frequent winter high pressure air masses, especially over the Atlantic-European part of the Arctic, and an associated influx of cold air to Europe." With Arctic sea ice expected to steadily dwindle in the coming decades, there may be an increase in cold February and March temperatures in the Eastern U.S. that will slow down the shift in cherry tree bloom times.

References
Chung et al., 2011, "Predicting the Timing of Cherry Blossoms in Washington, DC and Mid-Atlantic States in Response to Climate Change", PLoS ONE 6(11): e27439. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0027439

Parmesan, 2007, “Influences of species, latitudes and methodologies on estimates of phenological response to global warming”, Glob. Change Biol. 13, 1860–1872

Root, T. L. et al., 2005, "Human-modified temperatures induce species changes: Joint attribution", Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 102, 7465–7469.

Related posts
From Heat Wave to Snowstorms, March Goes to Extremes by Andrew Freedman of Climate Central
Extreme jet stream causing record warmth in the east, record cold in the west (January 2013)
Arctic sea ice loss tied to unusual jet stream patterns (April 2012)
Our extreme weather: Arctic changes to blame? (December 2011)
New USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map for gardeners shows a warming climate (February 2012)

Have a great weekend, everyone, and I'll be back with a new post on April Fool's Day, appropriate for the occasion.

Jeff Masters

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858. aspectre
2:18 AM GMT on April 01, 2013
817 BaltimoreBrian: Who are the moderators? It seems better here.

Discussion about the (Mod)s on WunderYakuza's blog
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
857. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:15 AM GMT on April 01, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
856. Civicane49
2:14 AM GMT on April 01, 2013


SEL7

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 77
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
905 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

DEEP SOUTH TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 905 PM UNTIL
100 AM CDT.

HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES EAST NORTHEAST
OF ALICE TEXAS TO 105 MILES SOUTH OF ALICE TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 73...WW 76...

DISCUSSION...AN INTENSE SUPERCELL WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
BASEBALL TO SOFTBALL-SIZED HAIL WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER FEW
HOURS WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR POTENTIALLY VERY LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. WITH TIME...STEADILY GROWING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE STORM.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 33025.


...MEAD
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
855. wxchaser97
2:13 AM GMT on April 01, 2013
Quoting 1900hurricane:
I wonder what makes Austin and Waller Counties so special that they're still under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch way out away from everything.


That one storm that is riding the US/MEX border. The storm legitimately is riding next to the Rio Grande.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7984
854. PedleyCA
2:03 AM GMT on April 01, 2013


Well, we are supposed to have a 20% chance of rain and it looks like they got that one right. Got up to 71.8 here today. So, we have had 20 of the last 21 days over 70F. Goldilocks weather.....lol
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6798
853. Civicane49
1:58 AM GMT on April 01, 2013
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
657 PM PDT SUN MAR 31 2013

CAC077-010230-
/O.CON.KSTO.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-130401T0230Z/
SAN JOAQUIN CA-
657 PM PDT SUN MAR 31 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM PDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN COUNTY...

AT 651 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN COUNTY...
OR 12 MILES WEST OF STOCKTON...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THIS STORM HAS SHOWN ROTATION IN THE PAST...AND
A BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN CANNOT BE RULED OUT. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD
MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3782 12142 3781 12157 3783 12157 3785 12156
3787 12159 3788 12160 3793 12157 3796 12159
3805 12159 3806 12135
TIME...MOT...LOC 0155Z 180DEG 12KT 3792 12149

$$

DANG
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
852. Tornado6042008X
1:54 AM GMT on April 01, 2013
One fairly small but severe thunderstorm east of San Francisco, CA.
Member Since: March 29, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 643
851. AtHomeInTX
1:47 AM GMT on April 01, 2013
Quoting KoritheMan:


How high is he? Zone manager? Assistant? Co?


He's a Co.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 434
850. KoritheMan
1:44 AM GMT on April 01, 2013
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Welcome to Walmart. :) This is the first holiday my husband hasn't worked in over a year. Yep, he worked Christmas day too. He's one of those overnight managers. lol


How high is he? Zone manager? Assistant? Co?
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 603 Comments: 21852
849. Civicane49
1:41 AM GMT on April 01, 2013
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
848. HurrMichaelOrl
1:37 AM GMT on April 01, 2013
Quoting KoritheMan:
Why do I always miss all the exciting severe weather when I'm at work? What's more, what was I doing working on Easter? o_o


I know, I was working last Sunday when the airport here registered the strongest winds since the 2004 hurricane season, 56 mph gusting to 86 mph. I was not as strong where I was, but still it was bad, and I was bent out of shape about being stuck inside.
Member Since: July 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1401
847. aspectre
1:36 AM GMT on April 01, 2013
808 barbamz: New Models Predict Drastically Greener Arctic in Coming Decades
809 bappit: arrgh, Science Daily needs to post a map that's not so blurry.

Nah, the publishers and executive boards of most scientific journals -- especially Science and Nature -- need to be defenestated for preventing free public access to research that the public paid for.

LATERCERA Tendencias

Smithsonian Surprising Science

"Presently (left), vegetated areas of Alaska are mostly covered by small shrubs and tundra mosses (represented by the pea green color). By 2050 (right), much of this area will be dominated forests (bright green). Image via Nature Climate Change/Pearson et. al."

"In Canada, areas currently covered by tundra shrubs (purple at left) will be taken over by forest (bright green at right). Image via Nature Climate Change/Pearson et. al."
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
846. AtHomeInTX
1:36 AM GMT on April 01, 2013
Quoting KoritheMan:
Why do I always miss all the exciting severe weather when I'm at work (there was a report of hail exceeding quarter size on Highway 44 in Gonzales, which is very near the Walmart store I work at)? What's more, what was I doing working on Easter? o_o


Welcome to Walmart. :) This is the first holiday my husband hasn't worked in over a year. Yep, he worked Christmas day too. He's one of those overnight managers. lol
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 434
845. KoritheMan
1:34 AM GMT on April 01, 2013
Quoting 1900hurricane:
I wonder what makes Austin and Waller Counties so special that they're still under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch way out away from everything.



The little box that could.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 603 Comments: 21852
844. KoritheMan
1:27 AM GMT on April 01, 2013
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Because you're always at work.


Pretty much, Cody.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 603 Comments: 21852
843. 1900hurricane
1:26 AM GMT on April 01, 2013
I wonder what makes Austin and Waller Counties so special that they're still under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch way out away from everything.

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11909
842. TropicalAnalystwx13
1:25 AM GMT on April 01, 2013
Quoting KoritheMan:
Why do I always miss all the exciting severe weather when I'm at work (there was a report of hail exceeding quarter size on Highway 44 in Gonzales, which is very near the Walmart store I work at)? What's more, what was I doing working on Easter? o_o

Because you're always at work.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34202
841. KoritheMan
1:23 AM GMT on April 01, 2013
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
wal mart we dont even close for easter


They're trying to get it to where we work on Christmas, too. It'll most likely be a very gradual process, but still, if for some unexpected reason I am still there when it happens, I will call in and feign sickness every time.

Actually had a run in with one of the overnight co managers the other day regarding that very thing. I explained to her that she takes a job way too seriously. We had an assistant manager have a heart attack for that very reason a few years back. I told her I refuse to end up that way.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 603 Comments: 21852
840. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:21 AM GMT on April 01, 2013
Quoting KoritheMan:
Why do I always miss all the exciting severe weather when I'm at work? What's more, what was I doing working on Easter? o_o
wal mart we dont even close for easter
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 192 Comments: 59095
839. geepy86
1:20 AM GMT on April 01, 2013
Quoting KoritheMan:
Why do I always miss all the exciting severe weather when I'm at work? What's more, what was I doing working on Easter? o_o

I worked on Easter also....
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1708
838. KoritheMan
1:19 AM GMT on April 01, 2013
Why do I always miss all the exciting severe weather when I'm at work (there was a report of hail exceeding quarter size on Highway 44 in Gonzales, which is very near the Walmart store I work at)? What's more, what was I doing working on Easter? o_o
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 603 Comments: 21852
837. Tornado6042008X
1:16 AM GMT on April 01, 2013
Okay, based on the sst nearly 1C above average in the tropical atlantic and the ENSO being near neutral, my current prediction for the 2013 Hurricane Season is:  16-20/ 9-11/ 3-5. These numbers may be a little bit high. But I will modify my predictions as we move closer to hurricane season. 61 days, 2 hours, and 43 minutes left!!!!
Member Since: March 29, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 643
836. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:15 AM GMT on April 01, 2013
and the darkening begins as well
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 192 Comments: 59095
835. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:14 AM GMT on April 01, 2013
today is there last day of summer once april comes its the cooling season
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 192 Comments: 59095
834. bappit
1:14 AM GMT on April 01, 2013
.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6185
833. geepy86
1:07 AM GMT on April 01, 2013
looks cold
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1708
832. trunkmonkey
1:07 AM GMT on April 01, 2013
Quoting barbamz:
And some more news from our tireless "Science Daily":


This set of images shows the observed distribution of Arctic vegetation (left) in relation to the predicted distribution of vegetation under a climate warming scenario for the 2050s (right). Data used to generate the observed image are from the Circumpolar Arctic Vegetation Map (2003). (Credit: AMNH/R. Pearson)

New Models Predict Drastically Greener Arctic in Coming Decades

Mar. 31, 2013 — New research predicts that rising temperatures will lead to a massive "greening," or increase in plant cover, in the Arctic. In a paper published on March 31 in Nature Climate Change, scientists reveal new models projecting that wooded areas in the Arctic could increase by as much as 50 percent over the next few decades. The researchers also show that this dramatic greening will accelerate climate warming at a rate greater than previously expected.

Read the whole article


It's all caused by HAARP.
Member Since: August 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 675
831. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:04 AM GMT on April 01, 2013
south pole

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 192 Comments: 59095
830. Civicane49
12:53 AM GMT on April 01, 2013
Flood advisory issued for the Big Island of Hawaii until later in the evening.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
226 PM HST SUN MAR 31 2013

HIC001-010330-
/O.NEW.PHFO.FA.Y.0067.130401T0026Z-130401T0330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
HAWAII HI-
226 PM HST SUN MAR 31 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE ISLAND OF HAWAII IN HAWAII COUNTY

* UNTIL 530 PM HST

* AT 218 PM HST...RADAR SHOWED HEAVY RAIN NEAR PUNALUU...OR ABOUT 45
MILES SOUTHWEST OF HILO. THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WOOD
VALLEY AND PAHALA WITHIN KAU DISTRICT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY AWAY FROM STREAMS...DRAINAGE DITCHES AND LOW LYING AREAS PRONE
TO FLOODING.

RAINFALL AND RUNOFF WILL ALSO CAUSE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS DUE
TO PONDING...REDUCED VISIBILITY AND POOR BRAKING ACTION.

DO NOT CROSS FAST FLOWING OR RISING WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE OR ON FOOT.
TURN AROUND...DON/T DROWN.

&&

THIS ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND 530 PM HST IF HEAVY RAIN
PERSISTS.

LAT...LON 1938 15543 1921 15526 1894 15553 1912 15572

$$
POWELL
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
829. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
12:43 AM GMT on April 01, 2013
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 192 Comments: 59095
828. Astrometeor
12:42 AM GMT on April 01, 2013
That's all for me guys. Good night. Have to prepare for tomorrow.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 108 Comments: 11163
827. Astrometeor
12:42 AM GMT on April 01, 2013


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0360
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0727 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF S TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 73...76...

VALID 010027Z - 010200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
73...76...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL /POSSIBLY
SIGNIFICANT/ AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS...BUT INTENSIFYING INHIBITION WILL RESULT IN
WEAKENING TSTM ACTIVITY BY LATE EVENING

DISCUSSION...SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE SEWD OVER THE BRUSH
COUNTRY ALONG SWD-PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY HAS FORMED TO THE SE NEAR THE MERGER OF THIS OUTFLOW WITH
THE SEA BREEZE AROUND 30-40 NW ALI. 00Z CRP/BRO SAMPLED A PRONOUNCED
CAPPING INVERSION LOCALLY. HOWEVER...MODIFYING THE RAOBS FOR LIKELY
UPSTREAM CONDITIONS SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SPEED SHEAR CONDUCIVE TO SIGNIFICANT
HAIL. MERGING OF SUPERCELL UPDRAFTS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME LESSENING OF
HAIL SIZE. THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING WITH RESULTING INGEST OF
INCREASING MLCIN AMIDST MEAGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LEAD TO THE
EVENTUAL DEMISE OF THE SUPERCELLS BY LATE EVENING.

..GRAMS.. 04/01/2013
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 108 Comments: 11163
826. Astrometeor
12:41 AM GMT on April 01, 2013
VAL VERDE TX-
738 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR VAL VERDE COUNTY...

AT 734 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO DETECT A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DEL RIO...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING AREA INCLUDE LAUGHLIN AFB.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 108 Comments: 11163
825. BaltimoreBrian
12:33 AM GMT on April 01, 2013
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Perhaps theoretically. But cool sea surface temperatures promote cooler air temperatures, and cool air is stable and more dense.


So the more the air evaporates the cooler and more stable it is. Although moist air is less dense than dry air. Negative feedbacks stabilizing things.

It's like a restaurant that's so popular nobody goes there!
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 10490
824. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:25 AM GMT on April 01, 2013
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
If the evaporation is greater, that means atmospheric moisture is greater and more rain in the tropics, doesn't it?

Perhaps theoretically. But cool sea surface temperatures promote cooler air temperatures, and cool air is stable and more dense.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34202
823. BaltimoreBrian
12:21 AM GMT on April 01, 2013
Quoting Astrometeor:


The guys with the green "mod" next to their name.
So, Skyepony, Keeper, RTLSNK, auburn, whitewabbit.


Thanks. Was just wondering if there was a list of moderators.
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 10490
822. Astrometeor
12:20 AM GMT on April 01, 2013
LAVACA TX-
715 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL LAVACA COUNTY...

AT 706 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO DETECT A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR VIENNA...OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
HALLETTSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING AREA INCLUDE SPEAKS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 108 Comments: 11163
821. Astrometeor
12:19 AM GMT on April 01, 2013
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Who are the moderators? It seems better here.


The guys with the green "mod" next to their name.
So, Skyepony, Keeper, RTLSNK, auburn, whitewabbit.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 108 Comments: 11163
820. BaltimoreBrian
12:13 AM GMT on April 01, 2013
If the evaporation is greater, that means atmospheric moisture is greater and more rain in the tropics, doesn't it?
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 10490
819. barbamz
12:09 AM GMT on April 01, 2013
Quoting bappit:

I guess that also represents thawing permafrost.

Edit: arrgh, Science Daily needs to post a map that's not so blurry.


These maps (and some more) with a much better resultion in the pdf of the original article (no paywall, go figure). But it takes some time to download.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 72 Comments: 7901
818. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:09 AM GMT on April 01, 2013
The NAO is likely to go positive during the middle of April. While this will not be significant regarding tropical cyclone activity downstream (as long as it doesn't continue into a strongly positive phase and remain there for an extended period of time)...it does ensure that sea surface temperatures will not [continue to] rise dramatically, as strengthened ridges over the central and northeastern Atlantic produce stronger-than-average trade winds across the Main Development Region and cool waters through evaporational processes.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 34202
817. BaltimoreBrian
12:05 AM GMT on April 01, 2013
Who are the moderators? It seems better here.
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 10490
816. Gearsts
11:59 PM GMT on March 31, 2013
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
SST will probably go down a bit.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3010
815. Civicane49
11:58 PM GMT on March 31, 2013
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
814. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
11:54 PM GMT on March 31, 2013
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 192 Comments: 59095
813. Astrometeor
11:52 PM GMT on March 31, 2013
Tornado warning expired for the storm, but it is still dangerous.


ZAVALA TX-
642 PM CDT SUN MAR 31 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL ZAVALA COUNTY...

AT 638 PM CDT...NWS METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO DETECT A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WASHER...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF LA
PRYOR...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS LA PRYOR NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAYS 83 AND 57.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 108 Comments: 11163
812. BaltimoreBrian
11:50 PM GMT on March 31, 2013
Quoting aspectre:
760 trHUrrIXC5MMX: Carolina and Bayamon are cities near San Juan... learned that after Irene's impact on the Island

Is that NorthCarolina of SouthCarolina? presslord can get very fussy with folks who don't specify which.


Just remember that North Carolina is on top!
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 26 Comments: 10490
811. Civicane49
11:49 PM GMT on March 31, 2013
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
810. aspectre
11:48 PM GMT on March 31, 2013
760 trHUrrIXC5MMX: Carolina and Bayamon are cities near San Juan... learned that after Irene's impact on the Island

Is that North Carolina or South Carolina? presslord can get very fussy with folks who don't specify which
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
809. bappit
11:46 PM GMT on March 31, 2013
Quoting barbamz:

I guess that also represents thawing permafrost.

Edit: arrgh, Science Daily needs to post a map that's not so blurry.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6185
808. barbamz
11:39 PM GMT on March 31, 2013
And some more news from our tireless "Science Daily":


This set of images shows the observed distribution of Arctic vegetation (left) in relation to the predicted distribution of vegetation under a climate warming scenario for the 2050s (right). Data used to generate the observed image are from the Circumpolar Arctic Vegetation Map (2003). (Credit: AMNH/R. Pearson)

New Models Predict Drastically Greener Arctic in Coming Decades

Mar. 31, 2013 — New research predicts that rising temperatures will lead to a massive "greening," or increase in plant cover, in the Arctic. In a paper published on March 31 in Nature Climate Change, scientists reveal new models projecting that wooded areas in the Arctic could increase by as much as 50 percent over the next few decades. The researchers also show that this dramatic greening will accelerate climate warming at a rate greater than previously expected.

Read the whole article
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 72 Comments: 7901

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Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

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