Global warming continues with no slow down

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:23 PM GMT on March 27, 2013

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One often hears the statement in the media that global warming stopped in 1998, or that there has been no global warming for the past 16 years. Why pick 16 years? Why not some nice round number like 20 years? Or better yet, 30 years, since the climate is generally defined as the average weather experienced over a period of 30 years or longer? Temperatures at Earth's surface undergo natural, decades-long warming and cooling trends, related to the La Niña/El Niño cycle and the 11-year sunspot cycle. The reason one often hears the year 1998 used as a base year to measure global temperature trends is that this is a cherry-picked year. An extraordinarily powerful El Niño event that was the strongest on record brought about a temporary increase in surface ocean temperatures over a vast area of the tropical Pacific that year, helping boost global surface temperatures to the highest levels on record (global temperatures were warmer in both 2005 and 2010, but not by much.) But in the years from 2005 - 2012, La Niña events have been present for at least a portion of every single year, helping keep Earth's surface relatively cool. Thus, if one draws a straight-line fit of global surface temperatures from 1998 to 2012, a climate trend showing little global warming results. If one picks any year prior to 1998, or almost any year after 1998, a global warming trend does result. The choice of 1998 is a deliberate abuse of statistics in an attempt to manipulate people into drawing a false conclusion on global temperature trends. One of my favorite examples of this manipulation of statistics is shown an animated graph called "The Escalator", created by skepticalscience.com (Figure 1).


Figure 1. Average of NASA's GISS, NOAA"s NCDC, and the UK Met Office's HadCRUT4 monthly global surface temperature departures from average, from January 1970 through November 2012 (blue), with linear trends applied to the time frames Jan '70 - Oct '77, Apr '77 - Dec '86, Sep '87 - Nov '96, Jun '97 - Dec '02, Nov '02 - Nov '12. Climate change skeptics like to emphasize the shorter term fluctuations in global temperatures (blue lines) and ignore the long-term climate trend (red line.) The global surface temperature trend from January 1970 through November 2012 (red line) is +0.16°C (+0.29°F) per decade. Image credit: skepticalscience.com.

Correcting for natural causes to find the human contribution to global temperature changes
We know that natural global warming or cooling on time scales of 1 - 11 years can be caused by changes in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, dust from volcanic eruptions, and changes in solar energy. For example, a study published in March 2013 in Geophysical Research Letters found that dust in the stratosphere has increased by 4 - 10% since 2000 due to volcanic eruptions, keeping the level of global warming up to 25% lower than might be expected. So, it is good to remove these natural causes of global temperature change over the past 34 years for which we have satellite data, to see what the human influence might have been during that time span. The three major surface temperature data sets (NCDC, GISS, and HadCRU) all show global temperatures have warmed by 0.16 - 0.17°C (0.28 - 0.30°F) per decade since satellite measurements began in 1979. The two satellite-based data sets of the lower atmosphere (UAH and RSS) give slightly less warming, about 0.14 - 0.15°C (.25 - .27°F) per decade (keep in mind that satellite measurements of the lower atmosphere temperature are affected much more strongly by volcanic eruptions and the El Niño phenomena than are surface-based measurements taken by weather stations.) A 2011 paper published by Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf, "Global temperature evolution 1979- 2010", took the five major global temperature data sets and adjusted them to remove the influences of natural variations in sunlight, volcanic dust, and the El Niño/La Niña cycle. The researchers found that adjusting for these natural effects did not change the observed trend in global temperatures, which remained between 0.14 - 0.17°C (0.25 - 0.31°F) per decade in all five data sets. The warmest years since 1979 were 2010 and 2009 in all five adjusted data sets. Since the known natural causes of global warming have little to do with the observed increase in global temperatures over the past 34 years, either human activity or some unknown natural source is responsible for the global warming during that time period.


Figure 2. Tavurvur volcano in New Guinea erupting on March 7, 2009. According to the 2011 study, "Major influence of tropical volcanic eruptions on the stratospheric aerosol layer during the last decade", an October 7, 2006 eruption of this volcano, in combination with a May 20, 2006 eruption of the Soufrière Hills volcano on Montserrat Island in the Caribbean, hurled a significant amount of sulfur into the stratosphere, helping reduce global temperatures. Image credit: Taro Taylor.


Figure 3. Departure from average of annual global temperatures between 1979 - 2012, adjusted to remove natural variations due to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, dust from volcanic eruptions, and changes in solar energy. The five most frequently-cited global temperature records are presented: surface temperature estimates by NASA's GISS, HadCRU from the UK Met Office, and NOAA's NCDC, and satellite-based lower-atmosphere estimates from Remote Sensing Systems, Inc. (RSS) and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH.) Image is an update (via realclimate.org) of one from a 2011 study, Global temperature evolution 1979 - 2010 , by Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf, Environ. Res. Lett. 6, 2011, 044022 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/044022.


Figure 4. Average of NASA's GISS, NOAA"s NCDC, and the UK Met Office's HadCRUT4 monthly global surface temperature departures from average, from January 1970 through November 2012 (blue), with linear trends applied to the time frames Jan '70 - Oct '77, Apr '77 - Dec '86, Sep '87 - Nov '96, Jun '97 - Dec '02, Nov '02 - Nov '12. Climate change skeptics like to emphasize the shorter term fluctuations in global temperatures (blue lines) and ignore the long-term climate trend (red line.) The global surface temperature trend from January 1970 through November 2012 (red line) is +0.16°C (+0.29°F) per decade. Image credit: skepticalscinec.com.


Video 1. An animated description of how correcting for El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, dust from volcanic eruptions, and changes in solar energy shows that global warming has continued. Video credit: skepticalscience.com.

Where is the missing heat going? Into the oceans
The preponderance of La Niña events in recent years has caused a large amount of heat from global warming to be transferred to the deep oceans, according to a journal article published earlier this week by Balmaseda et al., "Distinctive climate signals in reanalysis of global ocean heat content". The warming at the surface has slowed down in recent years, but the total amount of heat going in the atmosphere/oceans/surface has continued unabated. The next big El Niño event will be able to liberate some of this stored heat back to the surface, but much of the new deep ocean heat will stay down there for hundreds of years. As far as civilization is concerned, that is a good thing, though the extra heat energy does make ocean waters expand, raising sea levels.


Figure 5. Land, atmosphere, and ice heating (red), 0-700 meter ocean heat content (OHC) increase (light blue), and 700-2,000 meter OHC increase (dark blue).  From Nuccitelli et al. (2012), described at skepticalscience.com.

Links
In October 2012 Carbonbrief.org published a list of six blogs and videos done to debunk the claim that the Earth hasn't warmed since 1998.

Balmaseda et al., 2013, "Distinctive climate signals in reanalysis of global ocean heat content," Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/grl.50382.

The 2013 realclimate.org annual adjusted global temperature analysis, for 1979 - 2012, concludes: "the models are on the low side of some changes, and on the high side of others, but despite short-term ups and downs, global warming continues much as predicted."

To answer frequently cited challenges to climate change science, see the wunderground.com webpage, Top Ten Skeptic Arguments, as debunked by skepticalscience.com.

I'll have a new post on Friday.

Jeff Masters

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1152. azucas
4:05 AM GMT on April 03, 2013
The post is misnamed because it seeks to deny simple data that is congruent between several satellite groups which clearly indicate that the lower troposphere has not warmed much, if at all since 1997. It takes no statistical manipulation to see this. Lower tropospheric temperatures increased rapidly from 1975 to 1997. Elaborate models were built that extrapolated this trend. But the atmosphere has not validated the models. The dramatic change in trend in raw data about 1997 is crystal clear. It is you, Mr. Masters, who would use statistical sophistry.
Member Since: January 2, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 20
1151. ChrisMoller
3:54 AM GMT on April 03, 2013
Why is it that you can predict weather scientifically, but insist on predicting climate based on your politics?
Member Since: February 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
1150. aburttschell
6:20 PM GMT on April 01, 2013
I realize this is an old post, but this sentiment is truly ridiculous. In respect to the formation of our stabilized climate, the proposed thirty or forty year data sample is too, like the 1998 date just a cherry picked number. We could look back over the last 1,000 or 2,000 years and could see a pattern of cooling.
Member Since: December 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 84
1149. AlwaysThinkin
7:43 PM GMT on March 30, 2013
.
Member Since: August 9, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 293
1148. aspectre
9:36 PM GMT on March 29, 2013
1116 allahgore: AGW is a curveball; life is full of curveballs. The best thing is to learn how to hit a homerun when a curveball is thrown your way.

Problem is, GlobalWeirding is a breaking knuckleball. All ya can do is learn when the probability of the ball crossing the plate is high enough that its better to take a random swing into the general region through which it might pass than to let that possible strike pass.
And hope that your swing has been within the timeframe in which ball contact is possible.
Even then the likelyhood is far higher that you'll have embarrassed yourself by whiffing at a ball far outside of the strike zone than that you'll have hit a homerun.

Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
1147. CaicosRetiredSailor
7:48 PM GMT on March 29, 2013
NHC has released its 2012 forecast verification report, a document describing the accuracy of both its official track and intensity forecasts, as well as that of the numerical guidance models. In the Atlantic basin, the NHC official forecast set new accuracy records at all time periods except 120 h. Although NHC official intensity errors were also smaller than normal, this was mostly due to the season's storms being relatively easy to forecast.

The full report can be found at:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pdfs/Verific ation_2012.pdf
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984
1146. stoormfury
7:47 PM GMT on March 29, 2013
2013 hurricane season looks very interesting. most of the factors that create an active season are slowly coming together. if one has to look at past years, 1966 and 2004 seasons are somewhat similar to conditions that now exits now for the 2013 season. don't be surprise to have an early july start to storms originating from actve tropical waves in the deep tropics. I expect 18 named storms 11 of which will be hurricanes, with 3 majors. that number could increase depending how the gomex and nw Caribbean regions.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2552
1145. pottery
7:32 PM GMT on March 29, 2013
Quoting allahgore:


Show me the master plan, I don't care if it's in a graph. Freelancing get's you where?

Well, OK.

There is no Master Plan.
The issue is much too complex for that.

But there are ongoing International discussions that aim to come up with some kind of "cap" on National emissions like co2 and so on.

But these discussions are obviously meaningless until all the parties are committed to the same thing. And every Nation has it's own Agenda, naturally. (every individual does too, by the way).

I dont see a solution in sight.
Your idea of adapting to the conditions is a natural survival instinct.
It's good advice, too.

The strong will survive.
(not the Armed. The Strong)
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
1144. RTSplayer
7:32 PM GMT on March 29, 2013
How the hell did Weather Channel Desktop get on my computer? I didn't intentionally download that. That means it's MALWARE!
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 32 Comments: 1502
1143. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
7:31 PM GMT on March 29, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1142. Tropicsweatherpr
7:31 PM GMT on March 29, 2013
Yes,more rain to come this weekend.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST FRI MAR 29 2013

.SYNOPSIS...FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH
AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DEEP LAYER LOW WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGES DEPICTED A LOW TO MID CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY COVERING MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AFFECTING THE ATLANTIC WATERS...MONA PASSAGE AND MOST OF
PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS HAVE DROPPED OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRUJILLO ALTO AND NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO
SINCE MIDNIGHT. OTHER AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN PUERTO RICO SUCH AS
BARCELONETA AND ISABELA RECEIVED AT LEAST 2 INCHES. GLOBAL WEATHER
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER PUERTO
RICO AND THE US VIRGIN THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SATURDAY WHILE DISSIPATES.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL RELOCATE NORTH
OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS TO SLOWLY
RETURN TO THE ISLANDS. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY...PRODUCING
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR ARE LIKELY ALL TAF SITES XCP TJPS AND
TKPK AS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. ALSO
TJBQ MAY REMAIN IFR BEYOND 30/02Z. SHRA AND OVC CONDS AND MTN
OBSCURATIONS TO REMAIN THRU 30/22Z. LLVL WIND NE TO E 5-10 KT TO
FL050 INCR TO FL100 LATE TODAY. WIND ABV FL100 W INCR WITH HGT.
WINDS AT 40 KFT UP TO 60 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SCA CONTINUES FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE MONA
PASSAGE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING BETWEEN
6 AND 8 FEET IN THE NEAR-SHORE BUOYS SINCE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
SEAS HAVE DROPPED AROUND 6 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AT THE OUTER BUOY
41043. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGIONAL WATERS AND THE LOCAL PASSAGES. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN CONTRAST...SEAS MAY
REMAIN AROUND 7 FEET AFTER SATURDAY...DUE TO AN INCOMING NORTH
SWELL THAT WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY. THIS MODERATE SWELL MAY BRING
THE SEAS NEAR SCA LEVELS ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 82 75 83 / 60 60 60 60
STT 74 82 74 85 / 40 60 70 70
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13298
1141. goosegirl1
7:25 PM GMT on March 29, 2013
Quoting kwgirl:
Fleas on rats.


Little known fact: plague was introduced into North America from Asian ships in the early part of the last century. It is now endemic in many western US states: Link

The reason human plague was so deadly to Europe in the dark ages was due to population density and no knowledge of antibiotics or germ theory, and due to a mutation in the bacterium itself:Link

Link

Fascinating stuff, considering we still do not have dependable, safe drugs to control virus infection. The next pandemic is only a mutation away...
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1185
1140. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
7:25 PM GMT on March 29, 2013
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Gonna Bug Out Early Today. Just scanned the news and see that North Korea trying to cause a stir. On a weather related note, here is where North Korea stood last Fall during typhoon season:

The Associated Press Posted: Aug 30, 2012 7:39 AM ET

Twin typhoons are renewing fears of a humanitarian crisis in North Korea, where poor drainage, widespread deforestation and crumbling infrastructure can turn even a routine rainstorm into a catastrophic flood.

Typhoon Bolaven struck the North on Tuesday and Wednesday, submerging houses and roads, ruining thousands of acres of crops and triggering landslides that buried train tracks. A second major storm, Typhoon Tembin, pounded the Korean Peninsula with more rains on Thursday.

........Because the North annually struggles to produce enough food from its rocky, mountainous landscape to feed its 24 million people, a poorly timed natural disaster can easily tip the country into crisis, like the famine in the 1990s that followed a similar succession of devastating storms.


What's going on right now over there is like a scene from Orwell's 1984......Diverting attention away from domestic issues by perpetuating a foreign enemy. Wonder if they will start firing rockets at the sky the next time a typhoon approaches or claim that the typhoon was the result of weather manipulation by the West.

On that note, good day and good night and may the good news be yours...............



there just dancing puffing out there chests



they should end the war before the war ends them

we have become so smart we are stupid
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52260
1139. pottery
7:22 PM GMT on March 29, 2013
Quoting allahgore:


Yeah start by drafting a master plan a global plan and get to work. The graphs are pretty and the debates are funny but it's time to get to work. Nea that spider web graph was very pretty but how did that graph stop AGW?


This will require a majority of the people to demand it.
In many countries, there is already a majority of the population demanding action.
The US is not one of those countries, unfortunately. Nor are China and India incidentally, but those 2 are working on options anyway.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
1137. pottery
7:18 PM GMT on March 29, 2013
Quoting allahgore:


well you always have someone in the bull pen ready and willing to continue to keep the curve balls going your way. Do we just sit and cry about AGW? or do we do something about it?

Good point.
And there are loads of people doing things about it, in all kinds of ways.
One of the big problems with that is the FACT that there are also loads of people who happily accept that AGW is just a whimsical concept and that there is nothing to worry about.

So, to try to convince those folk, people post graphs and other visual things in the hope that more people will understand the problem and that those people will bring more pressure to bear on politicians, industry and the like.

The changing of lightbulbs is not the solution, as you know.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
1135. Tropicsweatherpr
7:16 PM GMT on March 29, 2013
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
304 PM AST FRI MAR 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
CANOVANAS
NAGUABO
LUQUILLO
RIO GRANDE

* UNTIL 600 PM AST

* AT 256 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT THE VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER EL YUNQUE IS NOW ALSO FLOODING AREAS
IN RIO GRANDE AND LUQUILLO. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTS THAT
HIGHWAY 191 IS FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE WHERE THE RIO SANTO ESPIRITU
CROSSES IT. HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE THIS
AREA. HEADWATERS OF RIVERS AND STREAMS IN NAGUABO AND CANOVANAS ARE
ALSO RECEIVING SOME OF THESE RAINS AND WILL SEND WATERS DOWNSTREAM
TOWARD INHABITED AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 1840 6575 1839 6575 1833 6578 1826 6579
1830 6588 1843 6587

$$

SNELL

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13298
1134. weathermanwannabe
7:15 PM GMT on March 29, 2013
Gonna Bug Out Early Today. Just scanned the news and see that North Korea trying to cause a stir. On a weather related note, here is where North Korea stood last Fall during typhoon season:

The Associated Press Posted: Aug 30, 2012 7:39 AM ET

Twin typhoons are renewing fears of a humanitarian crisis in North Korea, where poor drainage, widespread deforestation and crumbling infrastructure can turn even a routine rainstorm into a catastrophic flood.

Typhoon Bolaven struck the North on Tuesday and Wednesday, submerging houses and roads, ruining thousands of acres of crops and triggering landslides that buried train tracks. A second major storm, Typhoon Tembin, pounded the Korean Peninsula with more rains on Thursday.

........Because the North annually struggles to produce enough food from its rocky, mountainous landscape to feed its 24 million people, a poorly timed natural disaster can easily tip the country into crisis, like the famine in the 1990s that followed a similar succession of devastating storms.


What's going on right now over there is like a scene from Orwell's 1984......Diverting attention away from domestic issues by perpetrating a foreign enemy. Wonder if they will start firing rockets at the sky the next time a typhoon approaches or claim that the typhoon was the result of weather manipulation by the West.

On that note, good day and good night and may the good news be yours...............

Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 8278
1133. Skyepony (Mod)
7:15 PM GMT on March 29, 2013
More from that new paper posted earlier (it's so long)..blaming that recent change in airborne fraction & rate of ocean uptake of CO2 on the change of coal burning & such in China & India (both amount & amount of sulfur & such).



A decrease in land use emissions during the past decade (Harris et al 2012) could contribute to the decreasing airborne fraction in figure 3, although Malhi (2010) presents evidence that tropical forest deforestation and regrowth are approximately in balance, within uncertainties. Land use change can be only a partial explanation for the decrease of the airborne fraction; something more than land use change seems to be occurring.

We suggest that the huge post-2000 increase of uptake by the carbon sinks implied by figure 3 is related to the simultaneous sharp increase in coal use (figure 1). Increased coal use occurred primarily in China and India (Boden et al 2012; BP 2012; see graphs at www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Emissions/Emis_moreFigs/) . Satellite radiance measurements for July–December, months when desert dust does not dominate aerosol amount, yield an increase of aerosol optical depth in East Asia of about 4% yr-1 during 2000–2006 (van Donkelaar et al 2008). Associated gaseous and particulate emissions increased rapidly after 2000 in China and India (Lu et al 2011, Tian et al 2010). Some decrease of the sulfur component of emissions occurred in China after 2006 as wide application of flue-gas desulfurization began to be initiated (Lu et al 2010), but this was largely offset by continuing emission increases from India (Lu et al 2011).

We suggest that the surge of fossil fuel use, mainly coal, since 2000 is a basic cause of the large increase of carbon uptake by the combined terrestrial and ocean carbon sinks. One mechanism by which fossil fuel emissions increase carbon uptake is by fertilizing the biosphere via provision of nutrients essential for tissue building, especially nitrogen, which plays a critical role in controlling net primary productivity and is limited in many ecosystems (Gruber and Galloway 2008). Modeling (e.g., Thornton et al 2009) and field studies (Magnani et al 2007) confirm a major role of nitrogen deposition, working in concert with CO2 fertilization, in causing a large increase in net primary productivity of temperate and boreal forests. Sulfate aerosols from coal burning also might increase carbon uptake by increasing the proportion of diffuse insolation, as noted above for Pinatubo aerosols, even though the total solar radiation reaching the surface is reduced.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36085
1132. CaicosRetiredSailor
7:15 PM GMT on March 29, 2013
From NY Times:

Roughly 70 percent of the nation’s homes are powered through private, investor-owned utilities, which are allowed to earn a set profit on their investments, normally through the rates they charge customers. But government-owned utilities, most of them formed 50 to 100 years ago, are nonprofit entities that do not answer to shareholders. They have access to tax-exempt financing for their projects, they do not pay federal income tax and they tend to pay their executives salaries that are on par with government levels, rather than higher corporate rates.

That financial structure can help municipal utilities supply cheaper electricity. According to data from the federal Energy Information Administration, municipal utilities over all offer cheaper residential electricity than private ones — not including electric cooperatives, federal utilities or power marketers — a difference that holds true in 32 of the 48 states where both exist. In addition, they can plow more of their revenue back into maintenance and prevention, which can result in more reliable service and faster restorations after power failures.

In Massachusetts after Hurricane Irene in 2011, for instance, municipal utilities in some of the hardest-hit areas were able to restore power in one or two days, while investor-owned companies like NStar and National Grid took roughly a week for some customers. According to an advocacy group called Massachusetts Alliance for Municipal Electric Choice, government-owned utilities on average employ more linemen per 10,000 customers than the private companies.

Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984
1130. red0
7:14 PM GMT on March 29, 2013
Quoting JohnLonergan:


Now there is a vaccine available.


At first I was like, how the hell to do make a vaccine for a bacterial infection? Then I looked it up, and the "vaccine" that has been approved is Levaquin. Levaquin is an anitbiotic...lol? Levaquin isn't even a new antibiotic.

A bit more googling, and it appears that the entire idea that a vaccine exists for the plague was started by a defense contractor capitalizing on the post-9/11 anti-terror defense programs. In fact the entire "plague vaccination" entry in wikipedia is copied from a single 5 page "paper" by a defense contractor. http://www.nri.org/projects/ratzooman/docs/plague%2 0vaccination.pdf


Member Since: June 8, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 24
1129. Tropicsweatherpr
7:11 PM GMT on March 29, 2013
We are getting the needed rain where it counts,in the rivers that go to the lakes that have gone down in past weeks. Some flooding has occured but nothing major so far. Hopefully with this rain,they dont have to ration the water. By the way,I see a mini vortex in the radar in the Central range mountains. I guess that the dance of this morning worked.

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13298
1127. pottery
7:11 PM GMT on March 29, 2013
Quoting allahgore:


How is constantly posting graphs showing how bad it is going to be going to fix the problem? There comes a time when you need to put the bull horns down and stop posting graphs and get to work fixing the problem!

Any ideas ??
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
1126. pottery
7:10 PM GMT on March 29, 2013
Quoting allahgore:


The time is now to get in the batting cage to learn how to hit the curve ball. You have to be proactive not reactive when learning how to hit a homerun when curve balls are thrown your way.

NAH !

Proactive would be whacking the pitcher with the bat BEFORE he pitches....

:):))
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
1124. pottery
7:04 PM GMT on March 29, 2013
Quoting allahgore:



AGW is a curve ball; life is full of curve balls. The best thing is to learn how to hit a homerun when a curve ball is thrown your way. Crying about the pitcher throwing you curve balls will get you struck out!

I understand what your'e saying, but AGW is not at all like me against a pitcher.

I have an option with the pitcher.
I can walk up to him and whack him over the head.
Might get into trouble for that, but no more curve-balls.

I personally dont have that kind of option with the other thing.
I get to sit here and watch as things fall apart.

And by the way, my Country, (Trinidad) is one of the biggest co2 producers (per capita) on the Planet.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
1123. Levi32
7:02 PM GMT on March 29, 2013
Twin southern hemisphere tropical cyclones develop and mature in unison in the Indian Ocean during the 5-15 day period on the GFS.





Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 628 Comments: 26455
1121. pottery
6:56 PM GMT on March 29, 2013
Quoting LargoFl:
LinkOFF TOPIC BUT.....if your computer was running slow yesterday and maybe today or sites not working etc..i saw on CNN..yesterday there was a world wide attack on the internet...the feds are investigating as well as other countries etc.....

I read that too.

Here, we had a Nation-wide electricity blackout from 11:00 pm to this morning.
Seems there was a low-pressure problem with the gas, to the power stations.
But with the entire Island shut down, we did our bit for "Earth Day"....
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
1120. stormchaser19
6:55 PM GMT on March 29, 2013
Quoting allancalderini:
The tropical Atlantic is really boiling.The caribbean though not su much and I know is because of the cold fronts.The eastern pacific though has start cooling specially the part near Mexico I see a big blue spot.


in September will look like a boiler!!!
Member Since: June 20, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2130
1119. yonzabam
6:55 PM GMT on March 29, 2013
Quoting allahgore:


Look at the bright side we will have new farm land to produce crops to feed a growing global population. If life throws you a curve ball it's best to learn to adjust and hit a homerun.


And where are the settlers to colonize Siberia going to come from?. Who's going to build the infrastructure to support the new farming communities? Sounds good in theory until you start going into the detail.
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2426
1118. SFLWeatherman
6:54 PM GMT on March 29, 2013
12Z GFS all the rain in S FL!!:)
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4207
1117. kwgirl
6:53 PM GMT on March 29, 2013
Quoting LargoFl:
anyone remember HOW that Black Plague was spread from person to person?..was it flies or bugs?..or was it bad cattle or maybe filthy drinking water?..anyone know for sure?
Fleas on rats.
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
1115. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
6:53 PM GMT on March 29, 2013
Quoting pottery:

True that.
But at the expense of ecological diversity, clean water, etc.
The lovely forested mountains of places like Montana will look really grim, covered in SoyaBean.....

It's a funny thing....
when we destroy a building it's called terrorism.
when we destroy a Landscape it's called Progress.


its whatever they tell us it is pottery


clouds outside are changing getting that summer like puffy look to em instead of the flat dull look

warm clouds

rain coming
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52260
1114. AtHomeInTX
6:53 PM GMT on March 29, 2013
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we get to see another couple of those left turning storms this season

this is new thing and could be a serious problem if they occur repeatly each season from last


I have no way of knowing of course, but I'm thinking nothing will be headed into Texas again this year. Especially if this no rain forecast is because of another relentless ridge sitting on us.

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecast last week that Texas, Oklahoma and the Pacific Northwest will likely get less rainfall in 2013 than in 2012, and that the entire nation will experience a warmer summer than last year.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 459
1113. LargoFl
6:50 PM GMT on March 29, 2013
Link.............OFF TOPIC BUT.....if your computer was running slow yesterday and maybe today or sites not working etc..i saw on CNN..yesterday there was a world wide attack on the internet...the feds are investigating as well as other countries etc.....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33363
1112. pottery
6:48 PM GMT on March 29, 2013
Quoting allahgore:


Look at the bright side we will have new farm land to produce crops to feed a growing global population.

True that.
But at the expense of ecological diversity, clean water, etc.
The lovely forested mountains of places like Montana will look really grim, covered in SoyaBean.....

It's a funny thing....
when we destroy a building it's called terrorism.
when we destroy a Landscape it's called Progress.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 23080
1111. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
6:46 PM GMT on March 29, 2013
we get to see another couple of those left turning storms this season

this is new thing and could be a serious problem if they occur repeatly each season from last
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 165 Comments: 52260
1110. LargoFl
6:45 PM GMT on March 29, 2013
Quoting wxgeek723:


Through rats.

Not to mention the people were very un-hygienic and had it all wrong; they thought it was better to not wash yourself over long periods of time.
well in the 80's i did a trip for work into several countries in europe..and rats i did see and i guess rats are here to stay in the USA too huh..glad there IS a vaccine for it.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33363
1109. allancalderini
6:44 PM GMT on March 29, 2013
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The Atlantic tripole consists of warm waters in the deep tropics, a belt of cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the mid-latitudes, and then a second region of high sea surface temperatures in the upper latitudes. This sort of pattern focuses heat and convergence over the Main Development Region (including the Caribbean), lowering pressures and promoting tropical cyclone development.

The tropical Atlantic is really boiling.The caribbean though not su much and I know is because of the cold fronts.The eastern pacific though has start cooling specially the part near Mexico I see a big blue spot.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 3705
1108. trHUrrIXC5MMX
6:43 PM GMT on March 29, 2013
Quoting dabirds:
I'll bite Max, no scientific reasoning, but let's break the 19 and no major conus streaks - 20, 9, 4 w/ 1 conus (hopefully a graze in a lightly populated area)w/ plenty of warning.

Most of the foot to foot & half of snow is gone already, except shaded, drifted, and piled areas. Hoping for a good, normal time frame morel season in S C IL this coming month.


alright..got you for 20/9/4 thanks...
I have a rather bitter taste...

be back after dinner
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
1107. GeorgiaStormz
6:42 PM GMT on March 29, 2013
brrr

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9452
1105. dabirds
6:41 PM GMT on March 29, 2013
I'll bite Max, no scientific reasoning, but let's break the 19 and no major conus streaks - 20, 9, 4 w/ 1 conus (hopefully a graze in a lightly populated area)w/ plenty of warning.

Most of the foot to foot & half of snow is gone already, except shaded, drifted, and piled areas. Hoping for a good, normal time frame morel season in S C IL this coming month.
Member Since: August 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 681
1104. ncstorm
6:40 PM GMT on March 29, 2013
POTENT!! much needed rain..12z CMC





Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 13457
1103. Civicane49
6:39 PM GMT on March 29, 2013
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 82 Comments: 7056
1102. JohnLonergan
6:39 PM GMT on March 29, 2013
Quoting yonzabam:


Bacterium spread by bites from rat fleas. Three types - bubonic, septicemic and pneumonic. The pneumonic version by far the worst, as it spread from person to person like flu.

Treatable with penicillin, but early intervention needed.


Now there is a vaccine available.
Member Since: June 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2753

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.