Global warming continues with no slow down

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:23 PM GMT on March 27, 2013

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One often hears the statement in the media that global warming stopped in 1998, or that there has been no global warming for the past 16 years. Why pick 16 years? Why not some nice round number like 20 years? Or better yet, 30 years, since the climate is generally defined as the average weather experienced over a period of 30 years or longer? Temperatures at Earth's surface undergo natural, decades-long warming and cooling trends, related to the La Niña/El Niño cycle and the 11-year sunspot cycle. The reason one often hears the year 1998 used as a base year to measure global temperature trends is that this is a cherry-picked year. An extraordinarily powerful El Niño event that was the strongest on record brought about a temporary increase in surface ocean temperatures over a vast area of the tropical Pacific that year, helping boost global surface temperatures to the highest levels on record (global temperatures were warmer in both 2005 and 2010, but not by much.) But in the years from 2005 - 2012, La Niña events have been present for at least a portion of every single year, helping keep Earth's surface relatively cool. Thus, if one draws a straight-line fit of global surface temperatures from 1998 to 2012, a climate trend showing little global warming results. If one picks any year prior to 1998, or almost any year after 1998, a global warming trend does result. The choice of 1998 is a deliberate abuse of statistics in an attempt to manipulate people into drawing a false conclusion on global temperature trends. One of my favorite examples of this manipulation of statistics is shown an animated graph called "The Escalator", created by skepticalscience.com (Figure 1).


Figure 1. Average of NASA's GISS, NOAA"s NCDC, and the UK Met Office's HadCRUT4 monthly global surface temperature departures from average, from January 1970 through November 2012 (blue), with linear trends applied to the time frames Jan '70 - Oct '77, Apr '77 - Dec '86, Sep '87 - Nov '96, Jun '97 - Dec '02, Nov '02 - Nov '12. Climate change skeptics like to emphasize the shorter term fluctuations in global temperatures (blue lines) and ignore the long-term climate trend (red line.) The global surface temperature trend from January 1970 through November 2012 (red line) is +0.16°C (+0.29°F) per decade. Image credit: skepticalscience.com.

Correcting for natural causes to find the human contribution to global temperature changes
We know that natural global warming or cooling on time scales of 1 - 11 years can be caused by changes in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, dust from volcanic eruptions, and changes in solar energy. For example, a study published in March 2013 in Geophysical Research Letters found that dust in the stratosphere has increased by 4 - 10% since 2000 due to volcanic eruptions, keeping the level of global warming up to 25% lower than might be expected. So, it is good to remove these natural causes of global temperature change over the past 34 years for which we have satellite data, to see what the human influence might have been during that time span. The three major surface temperature data sets (NCDC, GISS, and HadCRU) all show global temperatures have warmed by 0.16 - 0.17°C (0.28 - 0.30°F) per decade since satellite measurements began in 1979. The two satellite-based data sets of the lower atmosphere (UAH and RSS) give slightly less warming, about 0.14 - 0.15°C (.25 - .27°F) per decade (keep in mind that satellite measurements of the lower atmosphere temperature are affected much more strongly by volcanic eruptions and the El Niño phenomena than are surface-based measurements taken by weather stations.) A 2011 paper published by Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf, "Global temperature evolution 1979- 2010", took the five major global temperature data sets and adjusted them to remove the influences of natural variations in sunlight, volcanic dust, and the El Niño/La Niña cycle. The researchers found that adjusting for these natural effects did not change the observed trend in global temperatures, which remained between 0.14 - 0.17°C (0.25 - 0.31°F) per decade in all five data sets. The warmest years since 1979 were 2010 and 2009 in all five adjusted data sets. Since the known natural causes of global warming have little to do with the observed increase in global temperatures over the past 34 years, either human activity or some unknown natural source is responsible for the global warming during that time period.


Figure 2. Tavurvur volcano in New Guinea erupting on March 7, 2009. According to the 2011 study, "Major influence of tropical volcanic eruptions on the stratospheric aerosol layer during the last decade", an October 7, 2006 eruption of this volcano, in combination with a May 20, 2006 eruption of the Soufrière Hills volcano on Montserrat Island in the Caribbean, hurled a significant amount of sulfur into the stratosphere, helping reduce global temperatures. Image credit: Taro Taylor.


Figure 3. Departure from average of annual global temperatures between 1979 - 2012, adjusted to remove natural variations due to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, dust from volcanic eruptions, and changes in solar energy. The five most frequently-cited global temperature records are presented: surface temperature estimates by NASA's GISS, HadCRU from the UK Met Office, and NOAA's NCDC, and satellite-based lower-atmosphere estimates from Remote Sensing Systems, Inc. (RSS) and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH.) Image is an update (via realclimate.org) of one from a 2011 study, Global temperature evolution 1979 - 2010 , by Grant Foster and Stefan Rahmstorf, Environ. Res. Lett. 6, 2011, 044022 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/6/4/044022.


Figure 4. Average of NASA's GISS, NOAA"s NCDC, and the UK Met Office's HadCRUT4 monthly global surface temperature departures from average, from January 1970 through November 2012 (blue), with linear trends applied to the time frames Jan '70 - Oct '77, Apr '77 - Dec '86, Sep '87 - Nov '96, Jun '97 - Dec '02, Nov '02 - Nov '12. Climate change skeptics like to emphasize the shorter term fluctuations in global temperatures (blue lines) and ignore the long-term climate trend (red line.) The global surface temperature trend from January 1970 through November 2012 (red line) is +0.16°C (+0.29°F) per decade. Image credit: skepticalscinec.com.


Video 1. An animated description of how correcting for El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, dust from volcanic eruptions, and changes in solar energy shows that global warming has continued. Video credit: skepticalscience.com.

Where is the missing heat going? Into the oceans
The preponderance of La Niña events in recent years has caused a large amount of heat from global warming to be transferred to the deep oceans, according to a journal article published earlier this week by Balmaseda et al., "Distinctive climate signals in reanalysis of global ocean heat content". The warming at the surface has slowed down in recent years, but the total amount of heat going in the atmosphere/oceans/surface has continued unabated. The next big El Niño event will be able to liberate some of this stored heat back to the surface, but much of the new deep ocean heat will stay down there for hundreds of years. As far as civilization is concerned, that is a good thing, though the extra heat energy does make ocean waters expand, raising sea levels.


Figure 5. Land, atmosphere, and ice heating (red), 0-700 meter ocean heat content (OHC) increase (light blue), and 700-2,000 meter OHC increase (dark blue).  From Nuccitelli et al. (2012), described at skepticalscience.com.

Links
In October 2012 Carbonbrief.org published a list of six blogs and videos done to debunk the claim that the Earth hasn't warmed since 1998.

Balmaseda et al., 2013, "Distinctive climate signals in reanalysis of global ocean heat content," Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/grl.50382.

The 2013 realclimate.org annual adjusted global temperature analysis, for 1979 - 2012, concludes: "the models are on the low side of some changes, and on the high side of others, but despite short-term ups and downs, global warming continues much as predicted."

To answer frequently cited challenges to climate change science, see the wunderground.com webpage, Top Ten Skeptic Arguments, as debunked by skepticalscience.com.

I'll have a new post on Friday.

Jeff Masters

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402. VR46L
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


VR...where i the source of that pic, can u put it up?
I have one for the Antarctic Facing the Pacific Ocean, trying to get the other ones...


There you go Max

aviationweather.gov


See Ya all sometime !!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Today is the 29th anniversary of the deadliest tornado outbreak in Carolinas' history. A total of 24 tornadoes touched down, including an F0, 4 F1s, 7 F2s, 5 F3s, and 7 F4s. A total of 57 lost their lives, but over 1,000 were injured.


GFS has been showing and outbreak of severe wx next starting in FL and riding up the GA. SC, & NC Coastal Plain as a strong low rides NE out of the Gulf.

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Quoting VR46L:
Good Morning Folks ... Just a drive by to post this image ... Have fun folks





VR...where is the source of that pic, can u put it up?
I have one for the Antarctic facing the Pacific Ocean, trying to get the other ones...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14875
Today is the 29th anniversary of the deadliest tornado outbreak in Carolinas' history. A total of 24 tornadoes touched down, including an F0, 4 F1s, 7 F2s, 5 F3s, and 7 F4s. A total of 57 lost their lives, but over 1,000 were injured.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 33874
Quoting VR46L:
Good Morning Folks ... Just a drive by to post this image ... Have fun folks





There's Virgil.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Yikes! That is very cold for Florida standards on late March.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15493
HPC looking wetter for FL on each update.

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395. VR46L
Good Morning Folks ... Just a drive by to post this image ... Have fun folks



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Quoting spathy:
On RickyRoods blog there are calls for nationalizing portions of our energy supply,or at least the suggestion of such things. And you think that will end up with a cleaner World?
History and its facts are a good tool for learning. But when those facts are twisted by a Leftist/statist agenda its hard to know what history has to teach us!
I sure hope you have quotes to support that allegation because I don't remember any such calls or suggestions. You were much more cordial when you were home sick last week!
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Miami NWS Disco

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN IN THE EASTERN STATES EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY.
THIS COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT LOOKING VERY
IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY LIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY RETURNING SOUTH FLORIDA TO A ZONAL PATTERN.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE FRONT STALLING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
BUT THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING. OVERALL, THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS LOOK TO BE A VERY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION.



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People in FL really need to watch for a MAJOR severe weather outbreak mid next week as a powerful storm per the GFS rolls across FL. By later this weekend IF this system is still showing up on the models then FL will need to start taking precautions and listening to their local NWS Offices. GFS is also showing very high CAPE and very low Lift index of -9 to -10. Folks that is some extremely unstabe air.





Link
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36 here in Pcola breaking record of 45 set in 1999..

Cold and clear with a little sea fog..

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Quoting ozelloslim:
30.5 in central Citrus County Fl. about 50 miles north of Largo. Probably the coldest temp again in Fl.



28 in Homosassa, FL
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Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14875
The best solution to the fossil fuel dilemma is a realization throughout the society of the damage they are doing and a resulting change in behavior of the citizenry. There is no evidence that is occurring at any rate that will avert climate disaster. The next best solution is a fossilized carbon use tax combined with a fossilized carbon dividend.

Tax all fossil fuels as they enter the economy either at the mine, well, or the border if they are imported. And tax them significantly, about $.15/pound of fossilized CO2 produced by said fuels. For example, the direct use tax on a gallon of gasoline or other petroleum product would be about $3.

Five percent of the money collected would be used for the administration of the program. The rest would be returned equally to every citizen of the country in a quarterly dividend much like the Alaskan oil dividend.

In this way every citizen of the country would have a large financial incentive to use as little fossil fuel as possible. Those who used significantly under the average would make money with this program and would have additional funds to further their independence from fossil fuels.

I've discovered no other program that would so fairly and evenly provide the solution to our disastrous dependence on fossil fuels.
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Goood Morning All..

Well it's official..
The Blue Angels will have a 3hr local show in Pensacola this am and then all shows for April are canceled..
According to todays Pensacola News Journal they are grounded thru September 30..
That official announcement will come at the changing of command ceremony here at Pensacola Naval Air station this morning..
It's a sad day in Pensacola indeed.. :(
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Quoting DFWdad:


**The day Chavez died, I was reading about how the poor and minorities idolized him, because he took care of them. Then it occurred to me that Chavez paid for that by nationalizing many industries, with energy probably the largest. Literally taking possession of foreign companies investments.

But apparently their crude oil refining capability was deteriorating badly, and they were about to invest 5 billion to try and fix it.**

Venezuela was spending billions importing refined gasoline from the US and selling it at ridiculously low prices. Link

Partly as a result (I'm sure there were other other factors involved) the inflation rate in Venezuela soared, making it difficult for the poor to purchase basic necessities. Link

So his country could afford gasoline, but not food or safe water.
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cold, just above freezing here
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14875
30.5 in central Citrus County Fl. about 50 miles north of Largo. Probably the coldest temp again in Fl.
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todays average risk
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14875
Good morning. The SPC has moved to its new website starting today. Products are basically the same but the web page format is different, I think its pretty good. The Day 3 convective outlook has parts of TX, OK, and KS in a slight risk:

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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning to all.

Good morning. Yes!. Rain finnally will arrive starting this afternoon and it looks like it may linger thru the weekend.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
421 AM AST THU MAR 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID-UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN ATLC WILL BE
SLOW TO PROGRESS EWD NEXT SVRL DAYS. ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT WILL
REACH THE AREA FRI NIGHT THEN LINGER AROUND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOCAL AREA STILL UNDER A PWAT MINIMUM THIS MORNING
BUT LIGHT WINDS...DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION SIMILAR
TO YDAY. CONVECTION MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE TSTMS.

PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE MARKEDLY TONIGHT AS BROAD TROF PROMOTES
QUICK MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ENHANCES MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. SFC
WINDS ALSO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR INCREASED SFC
CONVERGENCE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CORDILLERA. ADDED TSTMS FOR
ATLC COASTAL WATERS WHERE K INDICES ARE HIGH...SHOWALTER INDICES
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE AND FORCING LOOKS STRONG. AS S/W ENERGY ROTATES
AROUND BROAD TROF AND SFC FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE AREA EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES AND LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE AROUND ST. CROIX WHERE
FRONT MAY NEVER MAKE IT. GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT
DETAILS ON HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE OVR THE WEEKEND BUT THE GENERAL
TREND SHOULD BE FOR COOLER...CLOUDY AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
DEAMPLIFYING WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDING OVER THE
REGION BY MID NEXT WEEK. STARTING MON NIGHT...MODELS SHOW A RAPID
DRYING TREND THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...CONTD VFR XCPT IN ISOLD SHRA MAINLY TNCM/TKPK. FEW OBSCD
MTNS THIS AFT IN SHRA/TSRA. POSBL BRIEF MVFR INCRG WEST PR THIS AFT
AND N PR TONITE. WIND THRU TONITE BLO FL100 VRB TO NE 10 KT OR LESS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS BUILDING OVER THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY UP TO 8 FT IN
NORTH SWELLS. SCA MAY BE REQUIRED FOR AMZ710 IN 430 AM CWF ISSUANCE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STILL VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER TODAY AS AREA REMAINS
IN A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MINIMUM AND MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS TO BE
SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED YESTERDAY. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
UNSTABLE WHICH WOULD TEND TO ENHANCE ANY FIRES. QUICK MOISTURE
RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SOME RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 83 74 / 10 20 70 70
STT 84 76 84 76 / 0 0 20 70
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2468
Quoting TomTaylor:
From what I found, he hasn't done a blog on equatorial rossby waves. There was a blog on Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSW's) which briefly mentioned rossby waves, but that's all I could find.

FORTUNATELY,
I am writing up a blog on large-scale atmospheric equatorial waves right now!

Expect the post later today, stay tuned...


thanks for the info about the eq. Rossby waves... i'll stay tuned..
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14875
Wow 31 in zephyrhills fl this AM. lots of low heavy fog near the lakes. Drive careful.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning to all.

Yes!. Rain finnally will arrive starting this afternoon and it looks like it may linger thru the weekend.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
421 AM AST THU MAR 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID-UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN ATLC WILL BE
SLOW TO PROGRESS EWD NEXT SVRL DAYS. ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT WILL
REACH THE AREA FRI NIGHT THEN LINGER AROUND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOCAL AREA STILL UNDER A PWAT MINIMUM THIS MORNING
BUT LIGHT WINDS...DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION SIMILAR
TO YDAY. CONVECTION MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE TSTMS.

PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE MARKEDLY TONIGHT AS BROAD TROF PROMOTES
QUICK MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ENHANCES MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. SFC
WINDS ALSO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR INCREASED SFC
CONVERGENCE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CORDILLERA. ADDED TSTMS FOR
ATLC COASTAL WATERS WHERE K INDICES ARE HIGH...SHOWALTER INDICES
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE AND FORCING LOOKS STRONG. AS S/W ENERGY ROTATES
AROUND BROAD TROF AND SFC FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE AREA EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES AND LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE AROUND ST. CROIX WHERE
FRONT MAY NEVER MAKE IT. GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT
DETAILS ON HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE OVR THE WEEKEND BUT THE GENERAL
TREND SHOULD BE FOR COOLER...CLOUDY AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
DEAMPLIFYING WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDING OVER THE
REGION BY MID NEXT WEEK. STARTING MON NIGHT...MODELS SHOW A RAPID
DRYING TREND THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...CONTD VFR XCPT IN ISOLD SHRA MAINLY TNCM/TKPK. FEW OBSCD
MTNS THIS AFT IN SHRA/TSRA. POSBL BRIEF MVFR INCRG WEST PR THIS AFT
AND N PR TONITE. WIND THRU TONITE BLO FL100 VRB TO NE 10 KT OR LESS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS BUILDING OVER THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY UP TO 8 FT IN
NORTH SWELLS. SCA MAY BE REQUIRED FOR AMZ710 IN 430 AM CWF ISSUANCE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STILL VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER TODAY AS AREA REMAINS
IN A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MINIMUM AND MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS TO BE
SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED YESTERDAY. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
UNSTABLE WHICH WOULD TEND TO ENHANCE ANY FIRES. QUICK MOISTURE
RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SOME RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 83 74 / 10 20 70 70
STT 84 76 84 76 / 0 0 20 70
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15493
hmmm.. Ive been watching this one

Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14875
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2468
Good morning everyone...

we have a big 948 mb low in N ATL...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14875
Link


Pensacola NAS reporting Light Snow at the moment. Gotta be a glitch!
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G'morning all. 35.6 on my PWS! Unreal for this late in the season!
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Quoting pcola57:



This goes along with your post#631 IR,

EPAs Science Advisory Board Announces Independent Panel to Peer Review Agencys Hydraulic Fracturing Research..March 25,2013 News Release..

Post#38 in my blog


Good morning! About fracking regulation in Germany.

And here are some bad science news about the Antarctica:

Summer Melt Season Getting Longer On Antarctic Peninsula

Mar. 27, 2013 %u2014 New research from the Antarctic Peninsula shows that the summer melt season has been getting longer over the last 60 years. Increased summer melting has been linked to the rapid break-up of ice shelves in the area and rising sea level.
Source and whole article
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 46686
mosttly storm free today per GFS............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 46686
another chilly night for south florida tonight....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 46686
SUMTER-PASCO-HILLSBOROUGH-MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS- DESOTO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUSHNELL...THE VILLAGES...
NEW PORT RICHEY...ZEPHYRHILLS...BRANDON...TAMPA...BRADENTON ...
WAUCHULA...SEBRING...AVON PARK...ARCADIA
1213 AM EDT THU MAR 28 2013

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURE...33 TO 36 DEGREES FOR 2 TO 4 HOURS. ISOLATED AREAS
PROTECTED FROM THE WIND MAY BRIEFLY HIT 32 DEGREES.

* IMPACTS...DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE TO COLD SENSITIVE PLANTS. PLAN TO
COVER OR BRING INDOORS THESE PLANTS TONIGHT.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 46686
Good Morning Folks! 43 degree's warm up begins today
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 46686
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Lee Grenci, retired Penn State prof who blogs here as 24hourprof, did a great blog on Rossby waves not long ago, maybe last month. Anyone interested in weather will love his blogs.
From what I found, he hasn't done a blog on equatorial rossby waves. There was a blog on Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSW's) which briefly mentioned rossby waves, but that's all I could find.

FORTUNATELY,
I am writing up a blog on large-scale atmospheric equatorial waves right now!

Expect the post later today, stay tuned...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:
Anyone here know what a Equatorial Rossby wave is and how they originate?
Yes.

Equatorial rossby waves are characterized by long periods, long wavelengths and low amplitudes. This means they travel slowly (like the MJO), they span large areas (not quite as large as the MJO, but still several thousand miles), and they are hard to detect (need satellites to properly observe them). They travel along or near the equator (hence the name) and provide an important source of intraseasonal variation within the tropics (like the MJO). They also consist of areas of upward and downward motion, though the region of upward motion will not necessarily have convection (like the MJO). The more convection they have, the slower they will travel (also like the MJO). Furthermore, atmospheric equatorial rossby waves are important for tropical cyclone genesis in the Indian Ocean and west Pacific. The reason is the warmer water in these basins allows for greater atmospheric equatorial wave activity. Meanwhile, in the NE Pacific and Atlantic oceans, the water is relatively cooler so these waves are less active over these basins. Additionally, TC genesis in the Atlantic and NE Pacific is largely dominated by African Easterly Waves which rarely make it to the WPAC. So, TC genesis is more sensitive to atmospheric equatorial waves (such as rossby waves) in the Indian Ocean and West Pacific. The structure of the Rossby Wave is shown below.




Idealized Rossby Wave Structure. Notice there exists symmetric lows and highs (areas of upward and downward motion) on either side of the equator. Additionally, since the rossby wave is traveling westward, the maximum convergence is to the east of the low, creating a convective maximum in this region. Also notice the slower wave propagation for the moist (convectively active) wave.
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Quoting indianrivguy:


The fracking is destroying water supplies and impacting citizens across the nation. They are sneaking, hiding, fighting disclosure of chemicals, methods and consequences. There are more than twenty articles on this page about communities and states fighting against fracking.

EcoWatch It will sober you up reading this page. We, our water, our environment, and our health is being assaulted from all sides.

They are exempt from the clean water act, and abuse everything they touch. The ONLY consideration is profit. I HIGHLY recommend you read further on this subject. A LOT of money is being spent to hide, fight, and suppress public knowledge of just what they are really doing.

DEMAND CLEAN WATER



This goes along with your post#631 IR,

EPAs Science Advisory Board Announces Independent Panel to Peer Review Agencys Hydraulic Fracturing Research..March 25,2013 News Release..

Post#38 in my blog
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Quoting MrMixon:


There's nothing inherently wrong with fracking. We just have to be smart about where we do it (i.e. - might not be good idea in geologically unstable or residential areas). My main concern is that if people don't understand the potential impacts they aren't in a position to protect their property.


The fracking is destroying water supplies and impacting citizens across the nation. They are sneaking, hiding, fighting disclosure of chemicals, methods and consequences. There are more than twenty articles on this page about communities and states fighting against fracking.

EcoWatch It will sober you up reading this page. We, our water, our environment, and our health is being assaulted from all sides.

They are exempt from the clean water act, and abuse everything they touch. The ONLY consideration is profit. I HIGHLY recommend you read further on this subject. A LOT of money is being spent to hide, fight, and suppress public knowledge of just what they are really doing.

DEMAND CLEAN WATER
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Quoting Barefootontherocks:
spathy,
I don't remember any gas rationing in the 70s. I remember long lines at gas stations and a 55mph speed limit in effect for several years. There will be a balance. Que sera then, now and always.

I confess I am asleep. lol


Ohhh I remember this... well actually the "energy crisis" of 1979. The price of fuel got all wonky when there was a revolution in an Iran, with the Ayatollah Khomeini coming to power. (Wow that just reminded me of visits to a gun range in Broward as a teen where instead of standard silhouette paper targets, we shot at "Shoot a Hole-ah in the Ayatollah" targets)

But then again, this was not a singular event in that decade...


In '73, there was an energy crisis related to an oil embargo and the Egypt/Israel/Syria Yom Kippur war.


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Flash flood watch has ended for Oahu and parts of Maui County. Maui and Kahoolawe, however, are under that watch until tomorrow morning. Meanwhile, high wind warning is in effect for the Big Island summits through tomorrow afternoon.
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167
Member Since: July 21, 2011 Posts: 83 Comments: 7167

Quoting spathy:
On RickyRoods blog there are calls for nationalizing portions of our energy supply,or at least the suggestion of such things. And you think that will end up with a cleaner World?
History and its facts are a good tool for learning. But when those facts are twisted by a Leftist/statist agenda its hard to know what history has to teach us!



The day Chavez died, I was reading about how the poor and minorities idolized him, because he took care of them. Then it occurred to me that Chavez paid for that by nationalizing many industries, with energy probably the largest. Literally taking possession of foreign companies investments.

But apparently their crude oil refining capability was deteriorating badly, and they were about to invest 5 billion to try and fix it.

You see, it takes the expertise of Western Oil Corporations (or probably Russia) to build and maintain refineries. That is why Iran imports gasoline. A friend tells me his dad flies all over the world consulting on refinery projects, that when left to the (non-western/Russian) country it is in, the refinery becomes unusable in 5-10 years.

I wonder if Obama will take a page out of Chavez's book, to finance entitlements?

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spathy,
I don't remember any gas rationing in the 70s. I remember long lines at gas stations and a 55mph speed limit in effect for several years. There will be a balance. Que sera then, now and always.

I confess I am asleep. lol
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354. Skyepony (Mod)
(Reuters) - A mile-long train hauling oil from Canada derailed, spilling 30,000 gallons of crude in western Minnesota on Wednesday, as debate rages over the environmental risks of transporting tar sands across the border.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 283 Comments: 40768
hi spathy,
I'd guess gas rationing, like during WW II, and sky high rates for utility usage over a certain threshold are likely. But what do I know?
;)

'Nite.
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