An unusually quiet March for tornadoes--only 6 so far

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:37 AM GMT on March 21, 2013

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After an unusually active January for tornadoes, with approximately double the activity of a typical January, tornado activity dropped to near-normal levels in February, and virtually flat-lined during March. The five confirmed tornadoes in Tennessee, Georgia, and Alabama on Monday, March 18 brought the March 2013 tornado tally to just six. Monday's severe weather outbreak in the south brought hail up to the size of softballs to Jackson, MS, and damage from the hailstorm is estimated in the tens of millions.

Since 2000, the U.S. has averaged 89 tornadoes each March, so we have a long way to go to reach average. The 154 tornadoes last year in March 2012 was the fourth highest March total since records began in 1950 (record: 170 in March 2007.) Records for most and least tornadoes in a month have been set 24 times over the past 60 years. Ten of those records have been set in the past decade--six for the fewest tornadoes, and four for the most, said tornado researcher Harold Brooks last week. In addition, the three earliest starts of tornado season and the four latest have all occurred since 1997, and "We've had a dramatic increase in the variability of tornado occurrence," Brooks said. The jet stream, which plays a key role in tornado formation, has been wildly variable in recent years, leading to the large swings in tornado activity.


Figure 1. The EF-2 tornado with 120 mph winds that hit Meriwether and Pike County, Georgia on Monday, March 18, 2013 was one of just six March tornadoes in 2013. The cell labeled "3" spawned the tornado. Two other supercells are also labeled (cell #1 brought hail to Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson Airport.) Thanks go to Stu Ostro of TWC for providing the image.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is highlighting only a small "Slight Risk" area for severe weather on Thursday over Northern Texas, and another "Slight RIsk" area on Saturday over the Southeast U.S. The winter-like jet stream pattern we are in is likely to be dominant for at least the next week, and perhaps into April. So, March 2013 has a shot at making the top-five list for the quietest March months on record for tornado activity. Years with fewest March tornadoes since 1950:

1) 1951: 6
2) 1969: 8
3) 1966: 12
4) 1958: 15
5) 1978: 17


Forecasting the End
We're safely past the December 21, 2012 date of the predicted Mayan Apocalypse, so its permissible to engage in a bit of "what if" speculation on how civilization on Earth might ultimately meet its doom. That's the premise of The Weather Channel's "Forecasting the End" series, which begins airing Thursday March 21 at 9 pm EDT. I'll be making appearances in six of the episodes, set to air each Thursday through mid-April. You might hear me say the phrase, "It would be a bad day on planet Earth" more than once during the shows, as the type of events being considered--an asteroid strike, super volcano eruption, gamma ray burst, encounter with a rogue planet, and massive methane expulsion event--would all do very bad things to earth's climate, making human life on Earth a tenuous proposition. The spectacular graphics should make for an enjoyable show.

New Wettest Place on Earth Discovered?
After successfully helping cast down one iconic world record--the bogus 136°F measured at El Azizia, Libya in 1922--wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, and weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera are at it again. Mr. Burt documents in his latest blog post a challenge to the world's rainiest location, which is officially Mawsynram, Meghalaya State, India, with an annual average precipitation of 11,872 mm (467.40”). It turns out that Puerto Lopez, Colombia may be even wetter.

I'll have a new post on Friday.

Jeff Masters

Sample of hail (sirenscall)
3/18/13
Sample of hail

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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33281

Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6638
61. MTWX
Quoting Waltanater:
What logic! Keep an expensive vehicle outside while the garbage is inside and protected! Never understood that reasoning.

Depend on what you drive... The stuff in my garage is worth more than any of my vehicles...

Edit: I do have one vehicle that is worth more than what is in the garage... but it is too big to fit in it anyway...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Waltanater:
What logic! Keep an expensive vehicle outside while the garbage is inside and protected! Never understood that reasoning.


'Merica
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
And by the way, for the past oh, week....the GFS has been the model with the large warm sector, while the ECMWF kept it suppressed close to the gulf coast, and finally yesterday afternoon it seemed as if they would reach a consensus halfway...but NOOOOOO...

now 2 days before the event, the ECMWF now has a large warm sector, while the GFS is suppressing it down to near the coast......


I HATE computer models.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9451
Quoting RitaEvac:
Most have garages here in TX, they park their cars and trucks in the driveway because the garage is used as a storage or a man cave now days, people with furniture and flat screen TVs on the walls in the garage.
What logic! Keep an expensive vehicle outside while the garbage is inside and protected! Never understood that reasoning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
it's winter
I just cant remember a year where the cold lasted this far into march, especially here in florida,by now the 80s should be a constant temp here..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33281
then

HELICITY WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO INCREASE
TORNADO POTENTIAL IF HIGHER VALUES OF CAPE CAN BE REALIZED.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9451
So when hail pounds the hell outta of them or get broken into, I don't feel sorry for them. If I was insurance I would not cover them if they have garage and park the thing outside every night.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
Nam for sunday..just like the GFS................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33281
53. MTWX
Quoting RitaEvac:
Most have garages here in TX, they park their cars and trucks in the driveway because the garage is used as a storage or a man cave now days, people with furniture and flat screen TVs on the walls in the garage.


I was mostly talking about MS/AL, but I can't really say much... My garage is a wood shop... LOL!
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Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9451
it's winter
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9451
Most have garages here in TX, they park their cars and trucks in the driveway because the garage is used as a storage or a man cave now days, people with furniture and flat screen TVs on the walls in the garage.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9625
monday into south florida..per GFS
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33281
GFS says yes it will reach tampa late sunday......
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33281
Good morning everyone, thanks Dr. Masters

I wanted to know what happened with that tornado east of Gay, GA, so it was an 120 mph EF2.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
46. auburn (Mod)
Quoting MTWX:

Don't think he has one...

I've noticed that in the south over the years, only about 50% have garages... and even fewer have basements..


that is true..but I do have free standing carport up away from the house that I kept this car in..just didnt have the time to move it before this storm hit...
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45. auburn (Mod)
Quoting Waltanater:
Should have kept that in the garage!


we had just got home and unloaded grocery's(some were still in the car)I keep it in the garage/carport most of the time..but this stuff came out of the blue and so fast that I couldn't get to the car to move it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Local met doesnt think the severe stuff will reach down into tampa area BUT, the guidence is still iffy..folks from texas to florida just pay attention to your local warnings and be safe..I got family coming in today which im grateful for, dont want them on the highways in That storm this weekend....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33281

Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6638
42. MTWX
Quoting Waltanater:
Should have kept that in the garage!

Don't think he has one...

I've noticed that in the south over the years, only about 50% have garages... and even fewer have basements..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
41. auburn (Mod)
Quoting LargoFl:
OMG thats awful...


I had never see hail fog till this storm...but it was so thick it looked like the woods were on fire,the hail also cut some good sized limbs out of the trees here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting auburn:
This is the benz after the storm this past week-end...took off the side mirrors and the headlight lenses as well..what a mess..I also have holes in the roof..some were the size of softballs..


Should have kept that in the garage!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting auburn:
This is the benz after the storm this past week-end...took off the side mirrors and the headlight lenses as well..what a mess..I also have holes in the roof..some were the size of softballs..


OMG thats awful...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33281
Locks of the day

St. Mary's +1
Butler -3.5
Akron +7.5
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
gee folks plse heed your warnings,stay safe...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33281
36. auburn (Mod)
This is the benz after the storm this past week-end...took off the side mirrors and the headlight lenses as well..what a mess..I also have holes in the roof..some were the size of softballs..


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
35. MTWX
Quoting auburn:


I hope this round is Hail free..I lost 2 cars and a roof in the last storm this past weekend ti hail damage..never have I seen a storm like it in all my 48 years.


Hope this one takes it easy on you too bud!
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34. MTWX
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


That's an interesting end of that discussion. I wonder if a moderate risk could issued as we get closer. Makes perfect sense as the area from Southern MISS to N FL could be in for a wild Saturday and the reason for this a warm front sliding north.



That's just it... Noone still has any idea how far north the warm front is going to come inshore, if at all...

If it does come onshore anyone south of it is going to be in for a rough ride!
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33281
32. auburn (Mod)
Quoting LargoFl:
Folks on the gulf coast..heed your local warnings this weekend..........................DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS TIME...THERE IS A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ALICEVILLE TO LAFAYETTE...WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...BUT ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THERE ARE STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING...STRENGTH...AND AREAL
EXTENT OF THIS POTENTIAL EVENT...THEREFORE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOST
LIKELY BE EAST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT SHOULD START PLANNING FOR
POSSIBLE ACTIVATION ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...DUE TO THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.


Ohhh Goodie...thats me..here comes rnd 2 I guess.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Folks on the gulf coast..heed your local warnings this weekend..........................DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS TIME...THERE IS A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ALICEVILLE TO LAFAYETTE...WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...BUT ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THERE ARE STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING...STRENGTH...AND AREAL
EXTENT OF THIS POTENTIAL EVENT...THEREFORE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOST
LIKELY BE EAST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT SHOULD START PLANNING FOR
POSSIBLE ACTIVATION ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...DUE TO THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33281
Quoting kwgirl:
Good morning all, evening Aussie. It is a beautiful 70 degree morning here in the keys. The sun is shining and the birds are singing. We did not get any rain from that frontal passage last night, at least in my location. Typical dry spring weather for us, though a bit cool.

The Budweiser Cyldesdales are in town, delivering beer by wagon. I get to see them tomorrow on my lunch break. This weekend, the Blue Angels are flying in the only (and maybe last) air show the military is having this year. It will be a very slow ride on US1 due to the traffic heading to Boca Chica. So if any of you are thinking of heading down here, do so tonight or at least by Friday.

Everyone have a good day/evening.


Yesterdays weather brought me only .14 inches. Radar looked impressive, but as the storms neared the coast they just gave out. But, my three day rain total ended up at .52 so I can't complain. The Clysdales are magnificant animals. I saw they several times in Daytona for Speedweeks. They are huge!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
wow check out Sunday...................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33281
28. auburn (Mod)
Quoting WDEmobmet:


DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT THU MAR 21 2013

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM E-CNTRL TX EASTWARD INTO
SRN GA AND N FL...

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE GREAT BASIN AND
APPROACH THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. AN ELONGATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP EWD FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE
DEEP SOUTH AS A POWERFUL COLD FRONT SWEEPS SEWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AN INCREASING NWD FLUX OF GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE INTO AREAS FROM TX EWD INTO GA WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE DAY. THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF MULTI-FACETED SEVERE WILL PROBABLY
CONCENTRATE INVOF AND S OF WHERE A WEST-EAST ORIENTED EFFECTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE BECOMES ESTABLISHED. STRONG TO SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NERN
GULF STATES.

...E-CNTRL TX EWD INTO PARTS OF THE SERN STATES...
MODELS ARE CONVERGING TOWARDS A SCENARIO IN WHICH A BAROCLINIC ZONE
LIFTS NWD AS A WARM FRONT INTO SRN-CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE NRN GULF
COAST STATES. BEHIND THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY...RICHER MOISTURE
CHARACTERIZED BY 60S DEWPOINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A DESTABILIZING
AIRMASS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WHILE DEEP SHEAR WILL BE STRONG DURING
THE DAY AND FAVOR ORGANIZED STORMS IN THE FORM OF LINE
SEGMENTS/SUPERCELLS...THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY PRIOR TO
LATE AFTERNOON WILL SEEMINGLY BE LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS. AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AN
ISOLD TORNADO THREAT MAY SLOWLY INCREASE AS A LLJ INTENSIFIES TO 55
KTS AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE FL BIG BEND INTO SRN GA DURING THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A CORRESPONDING INCREASE
IN THE SIZE OF LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS OVER THE NERN GULF COAST STATES
INTO GA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. AS FORCING CONTINUES TO INCREASE
DURING THE PERIOD...THIS SHOULD PROMOTE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR
MORE BANDS OF STORMS. CONCURRENTLY...THE PROPENSITY FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE PERIOD. AS SUCH...DMGG WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL
LIKELY BECOME THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY.

ONCE DETAILS REGARDING THE POLEWARD POSITION OF THE EFFECTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE --TIED IN PART TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY-- BECOME LESS
AMBIGUOUS...A HIGHER PROBABILITY AREA COULD BE WARRANTED FROM SRN
MS/AL EWD INTO SRN GA/N FL.

..SMITH.. 03/21/2013

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1240Z (7:40AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME


I hope this round is Hail free..I lost 2 cars and a roof in the last storm this past weekend ti hail damage..never have I seen a storm like it in all my 48 years.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Heatwaves, tornadoes, and smurfs! NSW is having a terrible weather year. Thanks for the vids.

Sorry to see that horrible I-75 crash.

And to read that the hail zone hit half my family yesterday. Are the hailstones in that last shot being measured in inches or mm?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33281
25. Skyepony (Mod)
98S
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


How much rain do you think you picked up?
well my bird bath is kinda full, maybe a half inch, no more that that i guess..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33281
Quoting LargoFl:
thanks doc, weather might get interesting around florida sat/sun..we had a nice rain here last night,soaking wet here this morning and cooler..hope ft meyers etc got some good rain also..


How much rain do you think you picked up?
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 1 Comments: 919
New Video from Mulwala, NSW.



Tornado hits Border: '80 walking wounded'

10.20PM: UP to 10 people were treated with injuries and up to another 80 people were “walking wounded” after tornados ripped through Yarrawonga, Mulwala and surrounds tonight.
There are reports of caravans being picked and thrown by extreme winds at the View Denison County Caravan Park and Sun Country Holiday Village, both in Mulwala.

Ambulance Victoria paramedics have treated between eight and 10 people and reported that dozens of others were “walking wounded” with scratches and minor cuts.

Most patients treated by paramedics suffered minor head, chest and back injuries after being tossed around their caravans or hit by falling branches.

Two people were taken to Yarrawonga hospital, where a triage point has been set-up for storm victims.

The SES said the tornados also hit Rutherglen, Bundalong and Cobram.

Rutherglen and Yarrawonga have recorded more then 40 millimetres of rain.

At Barooga, the post office roof was blown off and trees fell on several cars along Golf Course Road.

In the North East the SES received more than 100 calls for assistance while that number was close to 1000 state-wide.

Several roads in Benalla and Swanpool were closed last night and there were reports of fallen power lines in the towns.

The Hume Freeway was closed just after 7pm due to fallen trees but traffic was moving freely again 30 minutes later.

Fallen trees also interrupted traffic moving along the Murray Valley Highway near Bundalong.

Heavy rain and strong wins moved east towards Albury-Wodonga but no serious damage was reported.

Albury has recorded 20 millimetres of rain.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
a horrible fiery crash has I-75 closed,maybe 6 hours.......................this is at SR 56...plse stay safe if your headed down I75
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33281
In other heat news, the Miami Heat continued their blitz on the league and extended their historic win streak to 24 games with an epic 27-point comeback against the Cleveland Cavaliers Wednesday night.

James stole the game with a triple-double on 25 points, 12 rebounds and 10 assists to lead Miami's 98-95 victory.

It was all too fitting for James’ ongoing assault on the hearts and minds of Cleveland.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WDEmobmet:


DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT THU MAR 21 2013

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM E-CNTRL TX EASTWARD INTO
SRN GA AND N FL...

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE GREAT BASIN AND
APPROACH THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. AN ELONGATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP EWD FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE
DEEP SOUTH AS A POWERFUL COLD FRONT SWEEPS SEWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AN INCREASING NWD FLUX OF GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE INTO AREAS FROM TX EWD INTO GA WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE DAY. THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF MULTI-FACETED SEVERE WILL PROBABLY
CONCENTRATE INVOF AND S OF WHERE A WEST-EAST ORIENTED EFFECTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE BECOMES ESTABLISHED. STRONG TO SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NERN
GULF STATES.

...E-CNTRL TX EWD INTO PARTS OF THE SERN STATES...
MODELS ARE CONVERGING TOWARDS A SCENARIO IN WHICH A BAROCLINIC ZONE
LIFTS NWD AS A WARM FRONT INTO SRN-CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE NRN GULF
COAST STATES. BEHIND THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY...RICHER MOISTURE
CHARACTERIZED BY 60S DEWPOINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A DESTABILIZING
AIRMASS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WHILE DEEP SHEAR WILL BE STRONG DURING
THE DAY AND FAVOR ORGANIZED STORMS IN THE FORM OF LINE
SEGMENTS/SUPERCELLS...THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY PRIOR TO
LATE AFTERNOON WILL SEEMINGLY BE LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS. AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AN
ISOLD TORNADO THREAT MAY SLOWLY INCREASE AS A LLJ INTENSIFIES TO 55
KTS AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE FL BIG BEND INTO SRN GA DURING THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A CORRESPONDING INCREASE
IN THE SIZE OF LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS OVER THE NERN GULF COAST STATES
INTO GA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. AS FORCING CONTINUES TO INCREASE
DURING THE PERIOD...THIS SHOULD PROMOTE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR
MORE BANDS OF STORMS. CONCURRENTLY...THE PROPENSITY FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE PERIOD. AS SUCH...DMGG WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL
LIKELY BECOME THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY.

ONCE DETAILS REGARDING THE POLEWARD POSITION OF THE EFFECTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE --TIED IN PART TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY-- BECOME LESS
AMBIGUOUS...A HIGHER PROBABILITY AREA COULD BE WARRANTED FROM SRN
MS/AL EWD INTO SRN GA/N FL.

..SMITH.. 03/21/2013

CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1240Z (7:40AM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME


That's an interesting end of that discussion. I wonder if a moderate risk could issued as we get closer. Makes perfect sense as the area from Southern MISS to N FL could be in for a wild Saturday and the reason for this a warm front sliding north.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 1 Comments: 919
Quoting islander101010:
wheres that penn. ground hog? might mistake him for a beaver colder than normal here in e cen florida


Why does a foolish divination superstition get so much attention anyway?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
weekend rain chances may increase as info grows...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33281
thanks doc, weather might get interesting around florida sat/sun..we had a nice rain here last night,soaking wet here this morning and cooler..hope ft meyers etc got some good rain also..
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33281
wheres that penn. ground hog? might mistake him for a beaver colder than normal here in e cen florida
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning all, evening Aussie. It is a beautiful 70 degree morning here in the keys. The sun is shining and the birds are singing. We did not get any rain from that frontal passage last night, at least in my location. Typical dry spring weather for us, though a bit cool.

The Budweiser Cyldesdales are in town, delivering beer by wagon. I get to see them tomorrow on my lunch break. This weekend, the Blue Angels are flying in the only (and maybe last) air show the military is having this year. It will be a very slow ride on US1 due to the traffic heading to Boca Chica. So if any of you are thinking of heading down here, do so tonight or at least by Friday.

Everyone have a good day/evening.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT THU MAR 21 2013

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM E-CNTRL TX EASTWARD INTO
SRN GA AND N FL...

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM THE GREAT BASIN AND
APPROACH THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. AN ELONGATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP EWD FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE
DEEP SOUTH AS A POWERFUL COLD FRONT SWEEPS SEWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. AN INCREASING NWD FLUX OF GULF OF MEXICO
MOISTURE INTO AREAS FROM TX EWD INTO GA WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE DAY. THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF MULTI-FACETED SEVERE WILL PROBABLY
CONCENTRATE INVOF AND S OF WHERE A WEST-EAST ORIENTED EFFECTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE BECOMES ESTABLISHED. STRONG TO SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NERN
GULF STATES.

...E-CNTRL TX EWD INTO PARTS OF THE SERN STATES...
MODELS ARE CONVERGING TOWARDS A SCENARIO IN WHICH A BAROCLINIC ZONE
LIFTS NWD AS A WARM FRONT INTO SRN-CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE NRN GULF
COAST STATES. BEHIND THE ADVANCING BOUNDARY...RICHER MOISTURE
CHARACTERIZED BY 60S DEWPOINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A DESTABILIZING
AIRMASS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WHILE DEEP SHEAR WILL BE STRONG DURING
THE DAY AND FAVOR ORGANIZED STORMS IN THE FORM OF LINE
SEGMENTS/SUPERCELLS...THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY PRIOR TO
LATE AFTERNOON WILL SEEMINGLY BE LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS. AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AN
ISOLD TORNADO THREAT MAY SLOWLY INCREASE AS A LLJ INTENSIFIES TO 55
KTS AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE FL BIG BEND INTO SRN GA DURING THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A CORRESPONDING INCREASE
IN THE SIZE OF LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS OVER THE NERN GULF COAST STATES
INTO GA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. AS FORCING CONTINUES TO INCREASE
DURING THE PERIOD...THIS SHOULD PROMOTE UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR
MORE BANDS OF STORMS. CONCURRENTLY...THE PROPENSITY FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE PERIOD. AS SUCH...DMGG WIND GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL
LIKELY BECOME THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY.

ONCE DETAILS REGARDING THE POLEWARD POSITION OF THE EFFECTIVE
BAROCLINIC ZONE --TIED IN PART TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY-- BECOME LESS
AMBIGUOUS...A HIGHER PROBABILITY AREA COULD BE WARRANTED FROM SRN
MS/AL EWD INTO SRN GA/N FL.

..SMITH.. 03/21/2013

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.