An unusually quiet March for tornadoes--only 6 so far

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:37 AM GMT on March 21, 2013

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After an unusually active January for tornadoes, with approximately double the activity of a typical January, tornado activity dropped to near-normal levels in February, and virtually flat-lined during March. The five confirmed tornadoes in Tennessee, Georgia, and Alabama on Monday, March 18 brought the March 2013 tornado tally to just six. Monday's severe weather outbreak in the south brought hail up to the size of softballs to Jackson, MS, and damage from the hailstorm is estimated in the tens of millions.

Since 2000, the U.S. has averaged 89 tornadoes each March, so we have a long way to go to reach average. The 154 tornadoes last year in March 2012 was the fourth highest March total since records began in 1950 (record: 170 in March 2007.) Records for most and least tornadoes in a month have been set 24 times over the past 60 years. Ten of those records have been set in the past decade--six for the fewest tornadoes, and four for the most, said tornado researcher Harold Brooks last week. In addition, the three earliest starts of tornado season and the four latest have all occurred since 1997, and "We've had a dramatic increase in the variability of tornado occurrence," Brooks said. The jet stream, which plays a key role in tornado formation, has been wildly variable in recent years, leading to the large swings in tornado activity.


Figure 1. The EF-2 tornado with 120 mph winds that hit Meriwether and Pike County, Georgia on Monday, March 18, 2013 was one of just six March tornadoes in 2013. The cell labeled "3" spawned the tornado. Two other supercells are also labeled (cell #1 brought hail to Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson Airport.) Thanks go to Stu Ostro of TWC for providing the image.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is highlighting only a small "Slight Risk" area for severe weather on Thursday over Northern Texas, and another "Slight RIsk" area on Saturday over the Southeast U.S. The winter-like jet stream pattern we are in is likely to be dominant for at least the next week, and perhaps into April. So, March 2013 has a shot at making the top-five list for the quietest March months on record for tornado activity. Years with fewest March tornadoes since 1950:

1) 1951: 6
2) 1969: 8
3) 1966: 12
4) 1958: 15
5) 1978: 17


Forecasting the End
We're safely past the December 21, 2012 date of the predicted Mayan Apocalypse, so its permissible to engage in a bit of "what if" speculation on how civilization on Earth might ultimately meet its doom. That's the premise of The Weather Channel's "Forecasting the End" series, which begins airing Thursday March 21 at 9 pm EDT. I'll be making appearances in six of the episodes, set to air each Thursday through mid-April. You might hear me say the phrase, "It would be a bad day on planet Earth" more than once during the shows, as the type of events being considered--an asteroid strike, super volcano eruption, gamma ray burst, encounter with a rogue planet, and massive methane expulsion event--would all do very bad things to earth's climate, making human life on Earth a tenuous proposition. The spectacular graphics should make for an enjoyable show.

New Wettest Place on Earth Discovered?
After successfully helping cast down one iconic world record--the bogus 136°F measured at El Azizia, Libya in 1922--wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, and weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera are at it again. Mr. Burt documents in his latest blog post a challenge to the world's rainiest location, which is officially Mawsynram, Meghalaya State, India, with an annual average precipitation of 11,872 mm (467.40”). It turns out that Puerto Lopez, Colombia may be even wetter.

I'll have a new post on Friday.

Jeff Masters

Sample of hail (sirenscall)
3/18/13
Sample of hail

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Quoting wilsongti45:
Holy negative AO



The Jakobvshavn Isbrae is melting!!

Quoting Neapolitan:
I can't do that, not anymore than you can prove that Zeus or Suijin or Thor or Santa Claus or the Easter Bunny are fake. That's Logic 101: no one can prove a negative.

So folks don't lose sight of my main point, allow me to repeat it: all life is ephemeral, including human life. Nature giveth, and Nature taketh away. So let our civilization rejoice in our time here, for it won't last.


One week to go until easter...and I'm giving up palm oil.

One of my favourite songs in a foreign language
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Quoting Astrometeor:


I predict it will go Cat 6 on NOLA rendering the city uninhabitable.

But I have the same accuracy as the GFS does with winter systems, so yeah.


gotta check Euro for this. It knows how to roll.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


what do you mean???


I predict it will go Cat 6 on NOLA rendering the city uninhabitable.

But I have the same accuracy as the GFS does with winter systems, so yeah.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10465
Quoting Astrometeor:


Most are indeed smaller than 15-20 miles across, however, most asteroids are smaller than 200 meters across, with the exception of the larger ones, including dwarf planet Ceres which Neapolitan enlightened me upon.

Actually stumbled across these comet-asteroid hybrids while reading further on this. Ya learn something new every day.

Centaur

Centaurs are small Solar System bodies with a semi-major axis between those of the giant planets. They therefore have unstable orbits that cross or have crossed the orbits of one or more of the giant planets, and have dynamic lifetimes of a few million years.[1] Centaurs typically behave with characteristics of both asteroids and comets. They are named after the mythological race of beings, centaurs, which were a mixture of horse and human. It has been estimated that there are around 44,000 centaurs in the Solar System with diameters larger than 1 km.[1]

The first centaur to be discovered was 944 Hidalgo in 1920. However, they were not recognized as a distinct population until the discovery of 2060 Chiron in 1977. The largest known centaur is 10199 Chariklo, discovered in 1997, which at 260 km in diameter is as big as a mid-sized main-belt asteroid.

No centaur has been photographed up close, although there is evidence that Saturn's moon Phoebe, imaged by the Cassini probe in 2004, may be a captured centaur. In addition, the Hubble Space Telescope has gleaned some information about the surface features of 8405 Asbolus.

As of 2008[update], three centaurs have been found to display cometary comas: Chiron, 60558 Echeclus, and 166P/NEAT. Chiron and Echeclus are therefore classified as both asteroids and comets. Other centaurs such as 52872 Okyrhoe are suspected of showing cometary activity. Any centaur that is perturbed close enough to the Sun is expected to become a comet.
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Quoting yonzabam:


South Lanarkshire, just south of Hamilton and East Kilbrde.



Ah, wouldn't reckon you got as much snow as further north, especially in the mountains obvs.

Will head up there one day for some photography, but wanna go way up to the northern extremes where the white sand beaches are or out to the western isles more than the mountains.

I have contacts from my grandma in Dumfries and Galloway, over round Wigton on the coast as her grandfather came from there and she was in touch with her cousins still living on the farm there and visited them a number of times. I've been a bit shy to contact though, feel weird...'hi, I'm your distant relative' LOL
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wierd



here it's 39F with 25mph wind gusts from the N...


tonight

CONSIDERING THE ATMOSPHERIC
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE...TOP DOWN METHOD CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A MIX
OF SNOW...SLEET AND RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE MOISTURE
MOVES INTO WESTERN GEORGIA. AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
DROP...EXPECT A PERIOD OF TRANSITION TO ALL LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA AND THE ATL METRO/AHN AREAS.
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO
A QUARTER INCH ACROSS NORTHWEST GEORGIA
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Holy negative AO

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Quoting SPLbeater:


That is a very, very conservative forecast for Hurricane Wmodemo.


what do you mean???
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Quoting allahgore:


Prove that GOD is fake.
I can't do that, not anymore than you can prove that Zeus or Suijin or Thor or Santa Claus or the Easter Bunny are fake. That's Logic 101: no one can prove a negative.

So folks don't lose sight of my main point, allow me to repeat it: all life is ephemeral, including human life. Nature giveth, and Nature taketh away. So let our civilization rejoice in our time here, for it won't last.
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flurries hang around



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way to go it's march 26th here


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Just a little comparison of "summer in March" and the recent "winter in March" from the perspective of the Great Lakes:





Who wants to go swimming with me?!?
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Quoting allahgore:


Prove that GOD is fake.


First, I am a Christian.

My take on all of this is quite simple, religion was invented by humans to describe the world around them and explain why certain events happen. Basically an early science, albeit one that does not stand up to today's standards.

Now that we have a better understanding of what goes on, and have thus disproven the idea of gods multiple times through the laws of physics, some people just can't let go of religion, it is a good story and has lessons to be learned from it, it just isn't real.

But we really should get back to weather now, I am in disbelief on the topic of snow for my area Thursday night into Friday, some would say (or as I said on a friend's blog) that I am taking Washi's approach to this upcoming system.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10465
Hot off the press from the CPC. Warmer spring for most of the country. Fingers crossed.

One Month



Three Month



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Quoting allahgore:


Prove that GOD is fake.


Wasting your time...all he will do is use more faulty evolution crap. Cant prove nothin :D
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Quoting AGWcreationists:
** snicker ** :^)

Actually, I was thinking the same myself. Most comets are, what, smaller than 15-20 miles across?

But any object a mile across or larger would be very, very, very bad news if it hit the Earth.

So at that scale, it basically is moot whether it be an asteroid or a comet.

It still would destroy everything within hundres of miles if striking on land, cause massive coastal tsunamis if striking at sea, and would trigger global environmental impacts.


Most are indeed smaller than 15-20 miles across, however, most asteroids are smaller than 200 meters across, with the exception of the larger ones, including dwarf planet Ceres which Neapolitan enlightened me upon.

The concern with Mars is with the rovers and the orbiters, a comet passing by can easily take out the orbiters due to the debris field being quite dense for space. A comet impacting Mars, depending on the size, could leave an impact crater quite big, estimates vary currently as data on the particular comet is few. If big enough, who knows, we might finally find out what is down there beneath the surface and we get an insight into how early planetary collisions may have occurred. If we lose the rovers, we always have the back-up version of Curiosity waiting pre-built back here to send to Mars in case of a potential disaster like this.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 101 Comments: 10465
Quoting fireflymom:
Sorry volcanoes are not on a any schedule so not overdue. More likely to have a big Quake on the Cascadian fault.

"Also your guys have a super-volcano in you neck of the woods that is over-due. Yellowstone."
True. Too, the continental land mass overlying the Yellowstone magma plume has continued to move to the west-southwest, and now a much thicker slab of Rocky Mountain batholith sits atop that plume, leading many vulcanologists to believe that it will be effectively "capped" for at least several million years. Also, that plume has cooled; it's estimated that the Yellowstone magma is now mostly crystallized (though still partly molten), and starting from between two and four miles beneath the park.
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162 AussieStorm: As long as your govt doesn't drag our economy down with it. I know where sell a s*** load of Iron Ore and Coal to China which should help keep us afloat till you guys get back on your feet.

Australia needs the export-import market like a fish needs a bicycle. Just tearin' up a whole heck of a lotta terrain in exchange for cheap garbage.
It ain't like Australians are incapable of manufacturing their own garbage. More expensive garbage to be sure, but the wages would go up even higher.
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Quoting MTWX:


I quite agree... Was just saying that is where the "overdue" came from...
Right. I hear it mentioned that way numerous times as well. Probably more as a sensationalized way to describe it rather than a scientifically-accurate description.

I know with regards to flood events, some people get to thinking that we are "overdue" and we should get more prepared because we are nearing a particular amount of years since the last "big one." I certainly wouldn't tell them not to worry, as it could happen any year. But the chance is mostly independent of the time since the last event (this is a bit different for quakes and volcanoes due to building stresses).
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


it keeps going, through IN, OH, VA, WV, DC....



They can have it :D

Not only am I not going to get any accumulations, but i dont want any either
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
Just noticed these products from HGX. It's pretty incredible to see how many flood events have occurred in just the past 20 years!






Southeast Texas is a flash-flood-prone portion of the country. I believe the only place with a higher density of flash flood reports would be SW Missouri.

Unlike with tornadoes, a flash flood is not as clear cut yes/no. There are societal differences at play, as well as issues with infrastructure. The definition of "flash flood" is also a bit more vague than "tornado." Certain parts of the country may have floods that quickly extend into the floodplain and then recede, but due to strong building codes, no homes, businesses, or roads are impacted. Other sections of the country may be rugged with numerous highways having very low bridges and old structures in the floodplain; in that case it would take far less water to trigger a flash flood report and potential life/property impact.
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Quoting SPLbeater:


Why is it I dont buy that? 1 inch for me...yeah right.

GFS has proved itself inconsistent time and time again for NC.


it keeps going, through IN, OH, VA, WV, DC....



ends up off shore




A good 3-6" from Denver to the Jersey shore

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189. MTWX
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Although we can take averages of the historical frequency of events like volcanic eruptions, that does not mean that because that amount of time has passed, we should expect a recurrence in the near future. He is right to indicate that volcanoes are not really on a schedule as we understand it.

It is similar with flooding and heavy rain events. For a particular area, you can estimate the average recurrence interval (ARI) for an event. But just because an ARI is 10yrs, does not mean one should forecast another 10yrs after the last. It would be a good forecast to say that in the future, over a period of time, one could expect that event on average every 10yrs. But it would not be a good forecast to say that it will occur again in 10yrs.

In some ways earthquake forecasting can be a bit different, as we are better able to measure the pressures and stresses on fault lines. We can use past experience to estimate how much stress builds up, and over what time frame (typically 10-100yrs), before quakes occur on that fault system. Geologists can also estimate the maximum magnitude of the quake based upon those measured stresses. We do not have the same level of data on stresses within volcanoes, and certainly not enough to precisely estimate significant, rare events occurring on an ARI of 600,000yrs.


I quite agree... Was just saying that is where the "overdue" came from...
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
somewhat better


That is a very, very conservative forecast for Hurricane Wmodemo.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
let it snow




Why is it I dont buy that? 1 inch for me...yeah right.

GFS has proved itself inconsistent time and time again for NC.
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Quoting fireflymom:
Sorry volcanoes are not on a any schedule so not overdue. More likely to have a big Quake on the Cascadian fault.

"Also your guys have a super-volcano in you neck of the woods that is over-due. Yellowstone."
Quoting MTWX:

The information he is going by is the fact that Yellowstone historically has erupted every ~600,000 years... It's been ~650,000 years since it's last eruption...

As far as a big quake in the Cascades... Very unlikely it would cause the end of the world...

Although we can take averages of the historical frequency of events like volcanic eruptions, that does not mean that because that amount of time has passed, we should expect a recurrence in the near future. He is right to indicate that volcanoes are not really on a schedule as we understand it.

It is similar with flooding and heavy rain events. For a particular area, you can estimate the average recurrence interval (ARI) for an event. But just because an ARI is 10yrs, does not mean one should forecast another event 10yrs after the last, nor does it necessarily mean we are "overdue" once 10yrs have passed. It would be a good forecast to say that in the future, over a period of time, one could expect that event on average every 10yrs. But it would not be a good forecast to say that it will occur again in 10yrs.

In some ways earthquake forecasting can be a bit different, as we are better able to measure the pressures and stresses on fault lines. We can use past experience to estimate how much stress builds up, and over what time frame (typically 10-100yrs), before quakes occur on that fault system. Geologists can also estimate the maximum magnitude of the quake based upon those measured stresses. We do not have the same level of data on stresses within volcanoes, and certainly not enough to precisely estimate significant, rare events occurring on an ARI of 600,000yrs.
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hodograph SE AL, SW GA



this just reminds me of enterprise AL

heavy cells ongoing at this time too

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Quoting Neapolitan:
Not to be argumentative,
** snicker ** :^)

Actually, I was thinking the same myself. Most comets are, what, smaller than 15-20 miles across?

But any object a mile across or larger would be very, very, very bad news if it hit the Earth.

So at that scale, it basically is moot whether it be an asteroid or a comet.

It still would destroy everything within hundres of miles if striking on land, cause massive coastal tsunamis if striking at sea, and would trigger global environmental impacts.
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GFS doubles down on keeping CAPE south






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let it snow


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As long as that displaced piece of Polar Vortex sits over SE Canada, storms exiting into the Atlantic and rounding it should have a good baroclinic environment and a few of them could bomb out (like this one that left Florida is right now). Right now, the models have all of the lows over the next week or so exiting far enough to the east to clear the NEUS coastline, but it'll be something to at least keep an eye on over the next few days.





And because of blocking, these lows should bend back to the west once in the vicinity of Newfoundland. Looks like a rough period of time for the Canadian Maritimes.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11694
somewhat better
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Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


Last year our biggest, and pretty much only lower elevation snowfall, was at the very end of March. Had about a foot at my old place and was the only time last winter. This year has been more spread out, though forecast to snow for us this weekend too. Not sure will be cold enough at lower elevations to stick during the day though, so depends if it is a lot and at night obvs. So hit and miss where it actually falls though. One of the big ones here this winter hit Anglesey and round here at my new place, which is normally odd...but the last few years there's been big snow spells places that normally don't get them apparently. People who've lived here 20 years and never saw snow like that all that time until the last 3 years. Still not happening 'a lot' over the winter, but even one big spell a snow in these places is a lot apprarently. Where in So Scotland are you? I would assume north Scotland would still expect some snow this time of year?


South Lanarkshire, just south of Hamilton and East Kilbrde.
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Quoting hydrus:


Boy that WRF model is really showing some nasty weather in C FL on Saturday. It seems as the models are trending south with the forward progression of the warm front.



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177. MTWX
Quoting fireflymom:
Sorry volcanoes are not on a any schedule so not overdue. More likely to have a big Quake on the Cascadian fault.

"Also your guys have a super-volcano in you neck of the woods that is over-due. Yellowstone."

The information he is going by is the fact that Yellowstone historically has erupted every ~600,000 years... It's been ~650,000 years since it's last eruption...

As far as a big quake in the Cascades... Very unlikely it would cause the end of the world...
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LGT SNW SE USA



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Quoting Neapolitan:
I dunno; a supervolcano or nearby GRB seems much more logical than a galloping quartet of mysterious horsemen. At any rate, I'm with Thomas Jefferson, who famously said of the Book: "I...considered it as merely the ravings of a maniac, no more worthy nor capable of explanation than the incoherences of our own nightly dreams... There is not coherence enough in [it] to countenance any suite of rational ideas."


Hey, Nea, little joke aside; I've saved this link from Science Daily just for you: Some proof for your monster :-)
Strange Spaghetti-Shaped Creature Is Missing Link
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Our Greatest Weather Disaster

J.B. Elliott | 8:49 pm March 21, 2007 | Comments (4)

NOTE: This is a story about Alabama's greatest tornado outbreak three weeks before I was born. It happened on March 21, 1932.

Thanks for that account. There actually were conspiracy nitwits claiming that the 2011 SE Super Outbreak was a sign of some kind of HAARP weather modification. Even when presented with details of the 1974 super outbreak for historical comparison, they persisted. It's good to have ammo like this about another super-outbreak level event from the 1930s to whap over their pointy little heads.
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Quoting yonzabam:


Where I live in southern Scotland is predicted to get 8" - 16" on Fri-Sat. That's just insane for this time of year.


Last year our biggest, and pretty much only lower elevation snowfall, was at the very end of March. Had about a foot at my old place and was the only time last winter. This year has been more spread out, though forecast to snow for us this weekend too. Not sure will be cold enough at lower elevations to stick during the day though, so depends if it is a lot and at night obvs. So hit and miss where it actually falls though. One of the big ones here this winter hit Anglesey and round here at my new place, which is normally odd...but the last few years there's been big snow spells places that normally don't get them apparently. People who've lived here 20 years and never saw snow like that all that time until the last 3 years. Still not happening 'a lot' over the winter, but even one big spell a snow in these places is a lot apprarently. Where in So Scotland are you? I would assume north Scotland would still expect some snow this time of year?
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Sorry volcanoes are not on a any schedule so not overdue. More likely to have a big Quake on the Cascadian fault.

"Also your guys have a super-volcano in you neck of the woods that is over-due. Yellowstone."
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Quoting SPLbeater:
Wondering out how the world might end...How about read Revelation? ;)
I dunno; a supervolcano or nearby GRB seems much more logical than a galloping quartet of mysterious horsemen. At any rate, I'm with Thomas Jefferson, who famously said of the Book: "I...considered it as merely the ravings of a maniac, no more worthy nor capable of explanation than the incoherences of our own nightly dreams... There is not coherence enough in [it] to countenance any suite of rational ideas."
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170. VR46L
Afternoon Folks


Still lots of energy on the Sat IR
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Much as I appreciate you and some of my other fans here comparing me to the most popular character on the 3rd most popular show on television, you should know that while I, too, speak Klingon, my vocabulary in that language is more limited than Sheldon's, so we're not all that similar. Sorry...

;-)
I love laughing at the antics of Sheldon and the gang. And Nea, you always give me a chuckle, if for no other reason than you know how to read someone's beads intelligently. :)
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Quoting SPLbeater:
Wondering out how the world might end...This isnt weather or climate. I am stunned(not).

How about read Revelation? ;)

On a weather note, the GFS predicted we would see some snowfall today, but not near enough to turn stuff white...and..skies are clear..


Where I live in southern Scotland is predicted to get 8" - 16" on Fri-Sat. That's just insane for this time of year.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

That would be a Dag.
thanks!!
i'll use it with proper care when next afforded the opportunity :)
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Wondering out how the world might end...This isnt weather or climate. I am stunned(not).

How about read Revelation? ;)

On a weather note, the GFS predicted we would see some snowfall today, but not near enough to turn stuff white...and..skies are clear..
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I have been really thinking about climate change and the cycles the earth goes through.

My thoughts are, not discounting AGW, but that as the earth warms on the outside, the inside warms as well. Eventually, the earth becomes like a pressure cooker, too much pressure inside so it starts blowing it's tops (volcanoes) which in turn cause a volcanic winter, which in turn cools the earth.

As I have said before, I am no scientist, just a simple bean counter and cook (hence the pressure cooker reference).

Is this too simple of an explanation of the earths cycles? Does the heat on the outside of our planet translate to the inside as well? I know there are a lot of you with college degrees in this area, so an honest answer, even if it is to say how dumb I am, would be welcome.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Much as I appreciate you and some of my other fans here comparing me to the most popular character on the 3rd most popular show on television, you should know that while I, too, speak Klingon, my vocabulary in that language is more limited than Sheldon's, so we're not all that similar. Sorry...

;-)
I don't believe it has anything to do with speaking Klingon, Sheldon. Maybe it is because you like to pretend to be superheros, on second thought that's not it. I will see if you can figure it out. I know sometimes the obvious eludes you but hey take a stab at it.



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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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