An unusually quiet March for tornadoes--only 6 so far

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 11:37 AM GMT on March 21, 2013

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After an unusually active January for tornadoes, with approximately double the activity of a typical January, tornado activity dropped to near-normal levels in February, and virtually flat-lined during March. The five confirmed tornadoes in Tennessee, Georgia, and Alabama on Monday, March 18 brought the March 2013 tornado tally to just six. Monday's severe weather outbreak in the south brought hail up to the size of softballs to Jackson, MS, and damage from the hailstorm is estimated in the tens of millions.

Since 2000, the U.S. has averaged 89 tornadoes each March, so we have a long way to go to reach average. The 154 tornadoes last year in March 2012 was the fourth highest March total since records began in 1950 (record: 170 in March 2007.) Records for most and least tornadoes in a month have been set 24 times over the past 60 years. Ten of those records have been set in the past decade--six for the fewest tornadoes, and four for the most, said tornado researcher Harold Brooks last week. In addition, the three earliest starts of tornado season and the four latest have all occurred since 1997, and "We've had a dramatic increase in the variability of tornado occurrence," Brooks said. The jet stream, which plays a key role in tornado formation, has been wildly variable in recent years, leading to the large swings in tornado activity.


Figure 1. The EF-2 tornado with 120 mph winds that hit Meriwether and Pike County, Georgia on Monday, March 18, 2013 was one of just six March tornadoes in 2013. The cell labeled "3" spawned the tornado. Two other supercells are also labeled (cell #1 brought hail to Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson Airport.) Thanks go to Stu Ostro of TWC for providing the image.

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is highlighting only a small "Slight Risk" area for severe weather on Thursday over Northern Texas, and another "Slight RIsk" area on Saturday over the Southeast U.S. The winter-like jet stream pattern we are in is likely to be dominant for at least the next week, and perhaps into April. So, March 2013 has a shot at making the top-five list for the quietest March months on record for tornado activity. Years with fewest March tornadoes since 1950:

1) 1951: 6
2) 1969: 8
3) 1966: 12
4) 1958: 15
5) 1978: 17


Forecasting the End
We're safely past the December 21, 2012 date of the predicted Mayan Apocalypse, so its permissible to engage in a bit of "what if" speculation on how civilization on Earth might ultimately meet its doom. That's the premise of The Weather Channel's "Forecasting the End" series, which begins airing Thursday March 21 at 9 pm EDT. I'll be making appearances in six of the episodes, set to air each Thursday through mid-April. You might hear me say the phrase, "It would be a bad day on planet Earth" more than once during the shows, as the type of events being considered--an asteroid strike, super volcano eruption, gamma ray burst, encounter with a rogue planet, and massive methane expulsion event--would all do very bad things to earth's climate, making human life on Earth a tenuous proposition. The spectacular graphics should make for an enjoyable show.

New Wettest Place on Earth Discovered?
After successfully helping cast down one iconic world record--the bogus 136°F measured at El Azizia, Libya in 1922--wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, and weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera are at it again. Mr. Burt documents in his latest blog post a challenge to the world's rainiest location, which is officially Mawsynram, Meghalaya State, India, with an annual average precipitation of 11,872 mm (467.40”). It turns out that Puerto Lopez, Colombia may be even wetter.

I'll have a new post on Friday.

Jeff Masters

Sample of hail (sirenscall)
3/18/13
Sample of hail

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Quoting Astrometeor:


First, I am a Christian.

My take on all of this is quite simple, religion was invented by humans to describe the world around them and explain why certain events happen. Basically an early science, albeit one that does not stand up to today's standards.

Now that we have a better understanding of what goes on, and have thus disproven the idea of gods multiple times through the laws of physics, some people just can't let go of religion, it is a good story and has lessons to be learned from it, it just isn't real.

But we really should get back to weather now, I am in disbelief on the topic of snow for my area Thursday night into Friday, some would say (or as I said on a friend's blog) that I am taking Washi's approach to this upcoming system.


Ladies and gentlemen,

The ultimate contradiction.
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getting a little weird and strange today must be the lack of weather
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52096
NOAA predicts mixed bag of drought, flooding and warm weather for spring

Excerpt:


NOAA issued the three-month U.S. Spring Outlook today, stating that odds favor above-average temperatures across much of the continental United States, including drought-stricken areas of Texas, the Southwest and the Great Plains. Spring promises little drought relief for most of these areas, as well as Florida, with below- average spring precipitation favored there. Meanwhile, river flooding is likely to be worse than last year across the country, with the most significant flood potential in North Dakota.
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Been a busy day but just got to the Blog:

That's the premise of The Weather Channel's "Forecasting the End" series, which begins airing Thursday March 21 at 9 pm EDT. I'll be making appearances in six of the episodes, set to air each Thursday through mid-April.

Congratulations Dr. and always appreciative of this Blog and the span of various issues which you have covered, and are very well versed on, over the years. Some folks think that this is just a tropical blog or global warming blog but the fact is that you post important information on numerous weather related topics throughout the year and in all seasons.

Kudos to You.
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deleted.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


no idea what you meant by saying that....
:/


Don't worry Max, I am sure you will find out someday.

(laughs evilly on the inside)
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 78 Comments: 8235
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
veterans day 2002

what exactly is this image? (edit: relative to your caption)
it is not depicting paths of the November 9%u201311, 2002 outbreak..
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Quoting RTSplayer:


Can you elaborate on your justification of how you can simultaneously be a Christian while not believing in the existence of God, since the basic tenet of the Christian faith is that Jesus was Christ and the Son of God?

How can you believe in the Son of God if you do not believe a God exists?

I find that you are either a liar, or you don't know what you're saying...


Paradoxical is it not? I do know what I am saying, I think.

I believe in what the Bible teaches us and the lessons for humans inside of it. Also I look forward to heaven since currently I have yet to find a strong enough reason or explanation to what happens after death. Therefore, I would like to suppose that I am a Christian in how a real Christian should be modeled, using what the Bible teaches us and applying it to my daily life as best I can. Believing in god and Jesus Christ, in my opinion, is not how/what a Christian should act/do.

That is what I believe.

P.S. I have no idea how to express my beliefs, the above was my best shot at it.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


no idea what you meant by saying that....
:/


Thats Okay
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deleted.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
Quoting allahgore:


If you can't prove it then why even say it? as much as you beat on people asking them to prove things, YOU of ALL people should be willing and able to back-up what you say. end of rant.
First, I don't "beat on people"; I merely ask that they substantiate the claims they make. (And that, by the way, is the same standard to which I hold myself.)

Second, I seldom ask anyone for proof; I only ask for reliable evidence. And those are not the same thing, of course.

Third--and most importantly--there's ample historical evidence of the anthropogenic origin of the world's 1,000-plus major deities. On the other hand, there's no evidence whatsoever that any of those deities have ever existed--only a lot of faith over the millennia. There's nothing wrong with that, so far as it goes, but it's not the way I choose to live my life. And that's why, for much the same reason, I'm such a firm advocate of climate science and global warming theory: there exist mountains of evidence indicating that the planet is warming and that it's caused by the burning of fossil fuels. On the other hand, I've seen no evidence that supports cooling or even non-warming, and unless and until I do, I simply can't support that possibility.
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I would be very surprise if this year ends below average like last year.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


That's how I am, I'll prefer to get it rubbed on my face than back-stabbed.
10


O come on, no back stabbing going on here. It was an out of context that I was making light of. I have several homosexual friends who would not blinked twice at that....

BTW your comment I'll prefer to get it rubbed on my face
Is another great out of context... Just saying :P
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veterans day 2002

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Our busy internet world, shifting from night to day to night. Check out, what's behind, including the study "Internet Census 2012. And with that bye for today, I'm slowly shifting into the night.
(Source of the pic is from a German report)
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Quoting Astrometeor:


First, I am a Christian.

My take on all of this is quite simple, religion was invented by humans to describe the world around them and explain why certain events happen. Basically an early science, albeit one that does not stand up to today's standards.

Now that we have a better understanding of what goes on, and have thus disproven the idea of gods multiple times through the laws of physics, some people just can't let go of religion, it is a good story and has lessons to be learned from it, it just isn't real.

But we really should get back to weather now, I am in disbelief on the topic of snow for my area Thursday night into Friday, some would say (or as I said on a friend's blog) that I am taking Washi's approach to this upcoming system.


Can you elaborate on your justification of how you can simultaneously be a Christian while not believing in the existence of God, since the basic tenet of the Christian faith is that Jesus was Christ and the Son of God?

How can you believe in the Son of God if you do not believe a God exists?

I find that you are either a liar, or you don't know what you're saying...
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found this from veterans day 2002

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removed...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14869
Quoting WDEmobmet:


I think you know what i meant, and I have seen them down there too...
Let's be nice. I love my friends and don't like speaking about them behind their backs.

But seriously, while I was living in Scotland, I became very sick. I collapsed on the sofa and slept, since in the living room was the coal fire and I had a parafin heater going. I wake up hours later and the heater is still full of fuel and the fire is still going. No one else was home and my husband was on duty. So I gave credence to fuel fairies. But I really believe it was the spirit that was living in the cottage. But I had not heard or talked to her at that stage of my occupancy.
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nice day off to watch the flurries come down
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Quoting JNCali:
did you perchance mean.. "in my DAZE"?


LOL or Haze
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Quoting kwgirl:
Depends on what you mean. We have quite a few down here as well:)


I think you know what i meant, and I have seen them down there too...
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Quoting WDEmobmet:


I have actually seen many fairies in my days
did you perchance mean.. "in my DAZE"?
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Quoting WDEmobmet:


I have actually seen many fairies in my days
Depends on what you mean. We have quite a few down here as well:)
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Quoting kwgirl:
I don't know about leprechauns and unicorns, but I do know that there are fuel fairies. One helped me out one time, while I was living in Scotland. And the proof afterwards was a fairy circle in the yard. So there!


I have actually seen many fairies in my days
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Quoting Astrometeor:




What wilson said, a logical fallacy in effect. You can't prove that God exists for that matter. I could go all hyperbolic and say that I believe in unicorns and leprechauns, but that doesn't make them real.

I would rather know that what I believe in is real, rather than putting false hopes into things that do not exist.

Time to go and do something else I suppose.
I don't know about leprechauns and unicorns, but I do know that there are fuel fairies. One helped me out one time, while I was living in Scotland. And the proof afterwards was a fairy circle in the yard. So there!
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Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 78 Comments: 8235
Tomorrow 8am forecast... mix at my place
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Finally MOB providing some graphics !!!





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We almost needed a bigger chart..



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More about our dire weather fate until Easter in Germany (and other parts of Europe), sigh:

Just Kill Us Now: German Spring Kicks Off with More Snow

The calendar says spring started Wednesday, but a look outside tells sun-starved Germans otherwise. Snow has blanketed large parts of the country in recent days, and forecasts predict yet more wintry weather to come. Super.

Germany's climate stinks. It's dark, wet and cold in the winter. And while spring and summer are warmer, the weather remains intermittently soggy. This is probably the reason Germans travel so much. Almost anywhere they go, the weather is likely be better than back home.

But because winter is so miserable, they still get pretty jazzed about springtime. The moment the sun comes out and the flower bulbs start popping, they emerge pale-faced from their dank dwellings to stroll hand-in-hand with loved ones, eating ice cream and soaking up desperately needed Vitamin D on park benches. They even start smiling.

Not this year, though. ...


Read the whole article on Spiegel English, including a very nice photo gallery


In the eastern state of Thuringia, one resident garden gnome was apparently so fed up with the long winter that he decided to protest. "Where is spring?" his placard reads.


Pockets of cold airmasses around the arctic predicted. (Source of the saved pic)
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231. VR46L
>>>>>>peeks in, God or No God is the debate!
<<<<<<<<<<<<
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Quoting allahgore:


Prove that GOD is fake. Just you saying it, is not proof.




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Model news:

The expectations have increased for the next GFS/GEFS implementation next April (2014). A semi-Lagrangian T1500 GFS (13 km) and T574 GEFS is likely, and physics/analysis changes will also be a part of the implementation. Also, keep an eye on the recently updated Canadian model; statistics for the deterministic model are looking better.


Link
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Quoting allahgore:


scroll down and see who made the first claim. hint: was not me.


Can't we all just get along my fly spaghetti monster brotheren?
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
finally warmth weest

freeze to south gulf coast states


warmth coming


Thank goodness.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
hodograph SE AL, SW GA



this just reminds me of enterprise AL

heavy cells ongoing at this time too



That Hodograph is worriesome
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Quoting wilsongti45:


Logical fallacy. The burden of proof relies on the one making the claim. A logical way of thinking helps in understanding natural phenomena such as weather.


Quoting allahgore:


If you can't prove it then why even say it? as much as you beat on people asking them to prove things, YOU of ALL people should be willing and able to back-up what you say. end of rant.


What wilson said, a logical fallacy in effect. You can't prove that God exists for that matter. I could go all hyperbolic and say that I believe in unicorns and leprechauns, but that doesn't make them real.

I would rather know that what I believe in is real, rather than putting false hopes into things that do not exist.

Time to go and do something else I suppose.
Member Since: July 2, 2012 Posts: 78 Comments: 8235
Quoting Neapolitan:

So folks don't lose sight of my main point, allow me to repeat it: all life is ephemeral, including human life. Nature giveth, and Nature taketh away. So let our civilization rejoice in our time here, for it won't last.


Ecclesiastes Chapter 3
19 For that which befalleth the sons of men befalleth beasts; even one thing befalleth them: as the one dieth, so dieth the other; yea, they have all one breath; so that a man hath no preeminence above a beast: for all is vanity.
20 All go unto one place; all are of the dust, and all turn to dust again.

Amen. (I hope you didn't miss post 175, Nea)
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finally warmth weest

freeze to south gulf coast states


warmth coming
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Part of the conversation...

http://climaterealityproject.org/the-price-of-car bon/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_ca mpaign=carbon_launch

(remember to delete the space from the link above when you paste it)
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
meanwhile


Really good placement between the two jet streaks. All systems go for bombgenesis!

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 45 Comments: 11553
Quoting allahgore:


Prove that GOD is fake. Just you saying it, is not proof.


Logical fallacy. The burden of proof relies on the one making the claim. A logical way of thinking helps in understanding natural phenomena such as weather.
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A dusting of snow fell across the Piedmont of North Carolina and Virginia late this morning.
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Forecasting the end?

Hacking the planet?

Prospectors?

Really TWC? Really?
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Quoting Astrometeor:


I predict it will go Cat 6 on NOLA rendering the city uninhabitable.

But I have the same accuracy as the GFS does with winter systems
, so yeah.


so then a 20-40% chance?? oh no!!
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meanwhile

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Quoting wilsongti45:
Holy negative AO



The Jakobvshavn Isbrae is melting!!

Quoting Neapolitan:
I can't do that, not anymore than you can prove that Zeus or Suijin or Thor or Santa Claus or the Easter Bunny are fake. That's Logic 101: no one can prove a negative.

So folks don't lose sight of my main point, allow me to repeat it: all life is ephemeral, including human life. Nature giveth, and Nature taketh away. So let our civilization rejoice in our time here, for it won't last.


One week to go until easter...and I'm giving up palm oil.

One of my favourite songs in a foreign language
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.