TD 27 still hanging on

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:37 PM GMT on November 15, 2005

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Tropical Depression 27 continues to struggle against high wind shear generated by strong upper-level westerly winds. The storm has a small area of deep convection over the center, and a very small and weak circulation center. The circulation was too small to be resolved by the QuikSCAT satellite in its pass at 5:30 am this morning. Wind shear has held steady at about the same level we've seen the past two days, 20 knots. This shear is still high enough that there remains a 10% chance that the depression will dissipate within the next 24 hours. If the storm can survive until then, the shear will decrease enough to allow TD 27 to strengthen into a tropical storm and remain in a threat to the Caribbean for the rest of the week.

The eventual intensity of TD 27 is still highly uncertain. If TD 27 can position itself under an upper-level anticyclone that is expected to develop by Wednesday over the central Carribean, the storm has a chance to attain hurricane status. Ocean temperatures are 28-29C--plenty warm enough to allow a hurricane to form. However, the GFDL model is no longer predicting that this will be a major hurricane--it forecasts that TD 27 will strike Honduras as a Category 1 hurricane late in the week. This may be a result of the fact that the models are now forecasting increasing wind shear over the western Caribbean starting Friday. The other major intensity model, the SHIPS model, forecasts a strong tropical storm by the end of the week.

The computer models continue to agree that TD 27 will track westward over the Caribbean for the next five days, under the steering of a strong ridge of high pressure. By the end of the week, the storm should slow down, as a trough of low pressure to the north breaks down the ridge. This trough may be strong enough to force TD 27 northwards, where it would get caught in the westerly winds prevailing over Cuba and get recurved out to sea. This solution is favored by the Canadian model. The other models keep the ridge strong enough so that TD 27 remains over the ocean, or makes landfall in Honduras late in the week. I still believe Honduras is most at risk from this storm, followed by Nicaragua, Cuba, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas.

The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to make their first flight into TD 27 this afternoon at about 2 pm EST.

This will be my final blog for nine days, I am headed to Puerto Rico for vacation. I hope not to be on the front lines for the next tropical system, but it certainly is possible! This hurricane season could well extend into early December, as happened in the 2003 hurricane season. I will be back to blogging on November 25 to talk about what remains of hurricane season, summarize this amazing Hurricane Season of 2005, and speculate on next year's hurricane season. Be sure to catch the PBS NOVA and Frontline shows on Hurricane Katrina, airing Tuesday Nov. 22 and 8 pm and 9 pm, I hope to talk about that show, as well.

While I am gone, meteorologists John Celenza and Shaun Tanner of the Weather Underground will be updating my blog on all the latest about TD 27.

Jeff Masters

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599. seflagamma
8:17 PM GMT on November 16, 2005
new post up...
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 297 Comments: 40881
598. subtropic
8:11 PM GMT on November 16, 2005
Hi stormy. Bye stormy.
Member Since: August 29, 2002 Posts: 209 Comments: 4434
597. stormydee
8:09 PM GMT on November 16, 2005
Hey everyone, in and out...just reading 21's post regarding college accounting - it isn't too hard but you will get carpel tunnel writing everything out manually, very time consuming, but not that hard :-)

I had a funeral earlier and a baby shower in a couple of hours...."One goes out....one comes in!" (quote Jack Johnson)

Its been a surreal day.

Everyone take care and Ill be in tomorrow when I have more time!

Have a great night!
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
596. theboldman
8:00 PM GMT on November 16, 2005
rip now dont give up on it just yet if the shear lessens then we could have a ts on our hands
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
595. theboldman
7:59 PM GMT on November 16, 2005
see ya palm
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
594. Pensacola21
7:53 PM GMT on November 16, 2005
Bye Palm!
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
593. subtropic
7:53 PM GMT on November 16, 2005
bye palmbeacher.
Member Since: August 29, 2002 Posts: 209 Comments: 4434
592. palmbeacher
7:51 PM GMT on November 16, 2005
Hi again all. And now I am leaving again.
Talk to you tomorrow. 21, have fun at
work.lol
591. Pensacola21
7:50 PM GMT on November 16, 2005
Rp - Good riddance!!!
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
590. LpAngelRob
7:43 PM GMT on November 16, 2005
RIP TD #27

Looks likes TD 27 has gone to tropical heaven, which most likely looks a lot like the Caribbean during the summer.

I wonder if there are any others developing in that giant swirl of clouds...
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 41
588. Pensacola21
7:29 PM GMT on November 16, 2005
FERGUS FALLS, Minn. (AP) A former employee who attempted to burglarize a restaurant apparently didn't know any good hiding places.

Police responded to a burglary alarm at the Speedway Restaurant early Monday and surrounded the building.

When officers entered, they discovered that the burglar had tried to hide in the ceiling. He fell through and tried hiding in an oven instead.

"The guy was only half-baked when he was picked up," joked Police Capt. Hugo McPhee.

The 43-year-old man was taken to the Otter Tail County Jail.






Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
587. Pensacola21
7:26 PM GMT on November 16, 2005
DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) Here's an out-of-this-world reason you can't be denied unemployment benefits in Des Moines: seeing ghosts on the job.

The issue ended up in court when security guard Wade Gallegos alerted his supervisor at Neighborhood Patrol in September that ghosts were haunting a neighborhood he was guarding.

The supervisor arrived at the scene and Gallegos showed him where the ghosts were still apparently standing. The supervisor claimed he saw nothing and fired Gallegos five hours later.

The company found no signs of drug use or alcohol.

When Gallegos applied for unemployment benefits, Neighborhood Patrol refused, arguing that he was guilty of misconduct.

This month, Judge G. Ken Renegar disagreed. While he acknowledged that "such beliefs do render the claimant unfit to act as a security guard," Renegar ruled that seeing ghosts is not the type of misconduct that can disqualify Gallegos from receiving benefits
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
586. Pensacola21
7:23 PM GMT on November 16, 2005
lol
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
585. Pensacola21
7:22 PM GMT on November 16, 2005
Hey Sub, how's it going?
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
584. theboldman
7:22 PM GMT on November 16, 2005
hey 21 time for weiner 101 allready what is it this time a windchill at 50 lol
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
583. subtropic
7:21 PM GMT on November 16, 2005
Hey 21.
Member Since: August 29, 2002 Posts: 209 Comments: 4434
582. theboldman
7:21 PM GMT on November 16, 2005
yes school i did some this morning and now ill do some more after lunch
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
581. Pensacola21
7:20 PM GMT on November 16, 2005
Hey all...
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
580. subtropic
7:20 PM GMT on November 16, 2005
Wazzup Jeff. No school today?
Member Since: August 29, 2002 Posts: 209 Comments: 4434
579. theboldman
7:19 PM GMT on November 16, 2005
look its subtropic hey man whats rocking lol
\
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
578. subtropic
7:19 PM GMT on November 16, 2005
But with the pie, you have to have somewhat good aim. With the fruit salad, you can take out several targets at once with relative ease.
Member Since: August 29, 2002 Posts: 209 Comments: 4434
577. theboldman
7:18 PM GMT on November 16, 2005
hye sub
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
576. subtropic
7:18 PM GMT on November 16, 2005
lol... Yes, even better!
Member Since: August 29, 2002 Posts: 209 Comments: 4434
575. HateHurricanes
7:17 PM GMT on November 16, 2005
I liked pitching pie.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3080
574. subtropic
7:15 PM GMT on November 16, 2005
hatehurricanes. I dunno. I kinda like throwing fruit salad ;-)
Member Since: August 29, 2002 Posts: 209 Comments: 4434
573. HateHurricanes
7:14 PM GMT on November 16, 2005
What I don't miss, subtropic is all the little brats running around throwing fruit salad at eachother.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3080
572. subtropic
7:14 PM GMT on November 16, 2005
TD 27 is just lower on the food chain now.
Member Since: August 29, 2002 Posts: 209 Comments: 4434
571. billsfaninsofla
7:14 PM GMT on November 16, 2005
wind.... I agree, Broward is way over-crowded, terrible drivers, very expensive and not the best place in the world to raise kids, but our jobs are here and so are we.
Is that why you continue to live in an area you seem to despise so much?
Member Since: September 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5458
570. AySz88
7:12 PM GMT on November 16, 2005
The animation of the last threeish hours almost looks like convection from TD 27 is getting sucked into the new low - what's causing that kind of chain reaction?
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 8
569. subtropic
7:11 PM GMT on November 16, 2005
Yeah. I miss those days.
Member Since: August 29, 2002 Posts: 209 Comments: 4434
568. HateHurricanes
7:10 PM GMT on November 16, 2005
Gobble gobble to you too Subtropic. Those were the good 'ol days. Eat until you get sick, take a nap and then eat again. Now days we have turkey subs, secret relish and sweetpotato pie. That's it.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3080
566. subtropic
7:05 PM GMT on November 16, 2005
gobble gobble um.... gobble.
Member Since: August 29, 2002 Posts: 209 Comments: 4434
565. HateHurricanes
7:04 PM GMT on November 16, 2005
I'm up Wekiva Springs Road, by the park.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3080
564. weatherboyfsu
6:59 PM GMT on November 16, 2005
Yes'sum
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
563. HateHurricanes
6:49 PM GMT on November 16, 2005
Weatherboy - Are you in Orlando?
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3080
562. weatherboyfsu
6:47 PM GMT on November 16, 2005
Hello.....nice conversation going on in here........
Member Since: July 17, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1025
561. HateHurricanes
6:46 PM GMT on November 16, 2005
Palm - It's true. Women talk trash with eachother all the time.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3080
560. palmbeacher
6:46 PM GMT on November 16, 2005
Have fun, talk to you soon!
559. Pensacola21
6:46 PM GMT on November 16, 2005
..
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
558. palmbeacher
6:44 PM GMT on November 16, 2005
oh I bet!
557. Pensacola21
6:40 PM GMT on November 16, 2005
:o)
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
556. Pensacola21
6:38 PM GMT on November 16, 2005
LOL... Well that's was he does for a living... Ironic..

Anyway....
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
555. palmbeacher
6:37 PM GMT on November 16, 2005
21, I was going to say something
but, I will behave myself! That
is too funny!
554. Pensacola21
6:35 PM GMT on November 16, 2005
Yeah, I wish I could too, only if I won the lottery!!!!!
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
553. Pensacola21
6:34 PM GMT on November 16, 2005
LOL ;-)
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
552. palmbeacher
6:34 PM GMT on November 16, 2005
Really wish I could retire!
551. palmbeacher
6:33 PM GMT on November 16, 2005
Wish I could retire!
550. Pensacola21
6:32 PM GMT on November 16, 2005
lol
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 30 Comments: 3912
549. HateHurricanes
6:32 PM GMT on November 16, 2005
Oh, I'm so glad we retired early. Was starting to get to me. Sold almost everything and only have money left. but that's what we worked 16hr days for.
Member Since: August 29, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3080

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.