A dramatic greening of the Arctic over the past 30 years

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:30 PM GMT on March 18, 2013

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A remarkable transformation in the vegetation of the Arctic has occurred over the past 30 years, according to a study of satellite data published on March 10, 2013, in Nature Climate Change. The authors found that Arctic vegetation growth and temperatures in 2011 resembled what occurred 250 - 430 miles farther to the south back in 1982. That's the approximate distance in latitude between San Francisco and San Diego, or Washington D.C. and Atlanta. More greening occurred in Eurasia than North America, and the Arctic's new greenness is visible on the ground as an increasing abundance of tall shrubs and trees. Large patches of vigorously productive vegetation now span a third of the northern landscape, an area about equal to the contiguous United States. "Higher northern latitudes are getting warmer, Arctic sea ice and the duration of snow cover are diminishing, the growing season is getting longer and plants are growing more," said co-author Dr. Ranga Myneni of Boston University's Department of Earth and Environment, in a NASA press release. "In the north's Arctic and boreal areas, the characteristics of the seasons are changing, leading to great disruptions for plants and related ecosystems." The changes in the Arctic's vegetation are being driven by human-caused global warming, which is occurring in the Arctic at more than double the rate of the rest of the planet. This so-called "Arctic amplification" is due, in part, to the increased melting of ice and snow near the pole. When ice and snow melt, they uncover darker surfaces underneath, which absorb more sunlight and increase Arctic temperatures in a vicious cycle which melts even more ice and snow. Using 17 climate models, the researchers predicted that a continuation of warming in the Arctic in coming decades could lead to over a 1300 mile latitudinal shift in Arctic vegetation zones by the year 2100, compared to the period 1951 - 1980. That's a distance greater than the north-south extent of the contiguous United States. However, more frequent forest fires, increased pest outbreaks, and summertime droughts due to a warming climate might slow down Arctic plant growth.


Figure 1. Of the 10 million square miles (26 million square kilometers) of northern vegetated lands, 34 to 41 percent showed increases in plant growth (green and blue), 3 to 5 percent showed decreases in plant growth (orange and red), and 51 to 62 percent showed no changes (yellow) over the past 30 years. Satellite data in this visualization are from AVHRR and MODIS. Credit: NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio.


Figure 2. Trees take hold as permafrost thaws near the Altai Mountains in Russia. Credit: Terry Callaghan, EU-Interact/Sergey Kirpotin, Tomsk State University.

Commentary
One often hears complaints that global warming may be greatly overestimated, due to many temperature sensors being located in increasingly urbanized areas where local "urban heat island" effects are not being properly considered. If this were true (and it isn't), then we would not expect to see "nature's thermometers"--plants and animals--change their behavior and ranges much. But plants and animals are responding in major ways to the warming climate, and the greening of the Arctic is merely one more example of "nature's thermometers" telling us that the planet is warming significantly. Some other examples:

Fall is falling back: During 1982 to 1999, the end of the growing season was delayed by 4.3 days in the Northern Hemisphere. During 2000 to 2008, the end of the growing season was further delayed by an additional 2.3 days. In the U.S., fall now occurs ten days later than it did 30 years ago.

Spring is springing forward: Spring events, like bird and butterfly migrations, flower blooming times, and frog mating, have been advancing by about three days per decade over the past 30 years.

Animals are changing migration patterns: New species have colonized previously ‘cool’ regions, including sea anemones in Monterey Bay, and lichens and butterflies in Europe. Over the past 50 years, maximum range shifts vary from 200 km (butterflies) to 1,000 km (marine copepods).

Related blog post: New USDA Plant Hardiness Zone Map for gardeners shows a warming climate

Dr. Myneni's petition to protect Earth from climate change
Professor Myneni of Boston University's Department of Earth & Environment, co-author of the greening Arctic study, has developed a simple one-sentence petition that he hopes one billion people will sign by Earth Day, 2014:

Dear Secretary-General of the United Nations Ban Ki-moon,

We, the People of the Earth, request You to act judiciously and expeditiously to protect the Earth from anthropogenic climate change.

Respectfully,
People of the Earth


The petition, which I have signed, is at: https://yourclimatechange.org/, and was recently featured by Discovery News.

Jeff Masters

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541. Tropicsweatherpr
4:47 PM GMT on March 19, 2013
Quoting hydrus:


Which model will be right as they have opposite forecasts?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14892
540. ScottLincoln
4:47 PM GMT on March 19, 2013
Quoting LargoFl:
Real Science, a science website, says it "has been increasing at a rate of half a million square kilometers per year.

"If this alarming trend continues, the planet will be completely covered with Antarctic ice in 1,000 years," said Real Science, using University of Illinois data to map out the trend and reach its conclusion. "The Australian coral reefs will freeze to death in less than 300 years."

With a name like "Real Science," any made-up malarky must be true!
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3325
539. GeorgiaStormz
4:46 PM GMT on March 19, 2013
Low PWATS may lead to only isolated widely scattered storms

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9757
538. LargoFl
4:44 PM GMT on March 19, 2013
from what ive read these last few days, most scientists say, this current global warming trend..is only delaying..the coming of the next ice age........ok now, I am no scientist..BUT..if what they say IS true...why on earth would we Stop global warming???..........you think a warming planet is bad?...you should try to live in an ice age...well just trying to start a discussion, not meant to bother anyone...i just do not see the evidence..maybe a lil in the north but way down south its getting colder...we will have to wait and see which way the earth goes...either way most if not all of us here today..wont be around to see it.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42084
537. hydrus
4:44 PM GMT on March 19, 2013
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 22617
536. ScottLincoln
4:42 PM GMT on March 19, 2013
Quoting LargoFl:
hmmm so the north pole ice is melting BUT..antartica's Ice is growing.....extent continues above average

....slightly. Although melt in the Arctic completely overwhelms gains in the Antarctic. By a factor of 3.

Of course the Arctic sea ice is more closely related to climate change than Antarctic sea ice, so their comparison isn't 1-to-1.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3325
535. aspectre
4:39 PM GMT on March 19, 2013
530 PedleyCA: What is the source of your [comment519] picture?

irascibleprofessor.com/ 94370main_STILL sea_ice_yearly.2003 .jpg
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
534. LargoFl
4:39 PM GMT on March 19, 2013
guys surf the scientific sites for antartica ice..and you'll see the TRUE picture..we in the northern hemisphere seem to shut out all knowledge of the southern hemisphere for some reason BUT...here's yet another clipped info fact..............That was last week. And this is this week: Antarctic sea ice is on an upward slope. Real Science, a science website, says it "has been increasing at a rate of half a million square kilometers per year.

"If this alarming trend continues, the planet will be completely covered with Antarctic ice in 1,000 years," said Real Science, using University of Illinois data to map out the trend and reach its conclusion. "The Australian coral reefs will freeze to death in less than 300 years."


Read More At Investor's Business Daily: http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/022213-64 5488-arctic-ice-antarctic-ice-contradict-global-wa rming.htm#ixzz2O0KkCoow
Follow us: @IBDinvestors on Twitter | InvestorsBusinessDaily on Facebook
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42084
533. ncstorm
4:36 PM GMT on March 19, 2013


Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16226
532. txjac
4:36 PM GMT on March 19, 2013
Quoting aspectre:
For those questioning whether the Iraq War was just another federal subsidy for the fossil fuel industry,
"Iraq stands to gain almost $5 trillion in revenues from oil exports over the period to 2035, an annual average of $200 billion..." according to the International Energy Agency.


I kind of think it was also a payback to China as they needed the oil and they are getting oil from Iraq now
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2617
531. aspectre
4:34 PM GMT on March 19, 2013
519 LargoFl: north pole still ice covered,Sat pic...

Nope, ice cover data superimposed on an high relief map.
If it were otherwise, those background "mountains" would be piercing through the stratosphere.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
530. PedleyCA
4:33 PM GMT on March 19, 2013
Quoting LargoFl:
north pole still ice covered,Sat pic........


What is the source of your picture. Appears there is more ice than that.



This is yesterdays image. North Pole Ice
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6228
529. fireflymom
4:33 PM GMT on March 19, 2013
OK I see the solution we need to get rid of  I10.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Initial storm mode will be isolated strong to severe supercells which will gradually transition into a broken line of thunderstorms. Storms should affect most of the areas north of I-10 and possibly all the way to the coast overnight. TX TECH WRF model shows most of the activity focused in the corridor from College Station to Liberty while the HRRR shows more widespread activity affecting nearly all of the area but does weaken any storms as they cross south of I-10 toward the coast. Current thinking is that storms will develop and affect much of the northern counties of SE TX this evening and then begin to weaken with the loss of heating and instability by late evening as they move south of I-10. The overall severe threat looks marginal with hail being the primary threat.

Member Since: June 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 595
528. 1900hurricane
4:33 PM GMT on March 19, 2013
If you look at the 500 mb heights for the Northern Hemisphere, you may be surprised to see that heights at the North Pole are actually higher than they are over most of the US!

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709
527. LargoFl
4:33 PM GMT on March 19, 2013
hmmm so the north pole ice is melting BUT..antartica's Ice is growing.....extent continues above average


Figure 6. Antarctic sea ice extent for February 2013 was 3.83 million square kilometers (1.48 million square miles). The magenta line shows the 1979 to 2000 median extent for that month. The black cross indicates the geographic South Pole. Sea Ice Index data. About the data

Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center
High-resolution image

The Antarctic sea ice minimum extent appears to have passed, on February 20. Ice was quite extensive throughout the austral summer period. Monthly average sea ice extent for February 2013 was 3.83 million square kilometers (1.48 million square miles) and minimum daily sea ice extent for the Antarctic region was 3.68 million square kilometers (1.42 million square miles) on February 20. Unusual circulation patterns, likely resulting from higher-than-average pressure in the Bellingshausen Sea, pushed sea ice in the northwestern Weddell Sea far to the north, as we mentioned in our February post. NASA’s Earth Observatory posted this image of ice in the Weddell Sea as Image of the Day for March 1st, 2013. Extent was also well above average for the Ross Sea region relative to the entire 1979 to 2013 satellite record
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42084
526. calkevin77
4:32 PM GMT on March 19, 2013
Quoting txjac:


I'll keep my fingers crossed for you too


We did have some decent thunderstorms come through the area about a week and a half ago. Here's a cool shot taken of a bolt hitting Lake Travis during that storm. http://www.kxan.com/dpp/news/local/austin/rare-lig htning-bolt-strikes-lake-travis


Member Since: June 9, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 866
525. GeorgiaStormz
4:27 PM GMT on March 19, 2013
gfs high temps with this sytem



cool air wedge holds in GA

80s in AL
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9757
524. txjac
4:24 PM GMT on March 19, 2013
Quoting calkevin77:


I'm about 20 miles NE of Austin so right in that area. I too am hoping to squeeze out a few drops of precip from this one but if you were to have me place a bet on this one or a three legged greyhound...I'd have to go with good ole tripod. Fingers crossed but I'll believe it when I see it. Just sayin :)


I'll keep my fingers crossed for you too
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2617
523. GeorgiaStormz
4:21 PM GMT on March 19, 2013
main low lifts up into the ohio valley

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9757
522. LargoFl
4:21 PM GMT on March 19, 2013
s outh pole still frozen................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42084
521. calkevin77
4:21 PM GMT on March 19, 2013
Quoting txjac:


Of course ...has to be north of I-10 ...can you push them south a bit? Only about three miles south of 10 would be good for me


I'm about 20 miles NE of Austin so right in that area. I too am hoping to squeeze out a few drops of precip from this one but if you were to have me place a bet on this one or a three legged greyhound...I'd have to go with good ole tripod. Fingers crossed but I'll believe it when I see it. Just sayin :)
Member Since: June 9, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 866
520. GeorgiaStormz
4:20 PM GMT on March 19, 2013
YAY new GFS kills coastal surface low and tracks the main low way north, warmth for SE




surprising lack of prefrontal rains though.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9757
519. LargoFl
4:18 PM GMT on March 19, 2013
north pole still ice covered,Sat pic........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42084
518. LargoFl
4:15 PM GMT on March 19, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42084
517. aspectre
4:15 PM GMT on March 19, 2013
For those questioning whether the Iraq War was just another federal subsidy for the fossil fuel industry,
"Iraq stands to gain almost $5 trillion in revenues from oil exports over the period to 2035, an annual average of $200 billion..." according to the International Energy Agency.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
516. LargoFl
4:14 PM GMT on March 19, 2013
boy the NE is getting whacked non-stop this winter...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42084
515. LargoFl
4:11 PM GMT on March 19, 2013
so far so good...............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42084
514. LargoFl
4:10 PM GMT on March 19, 2013
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SEA AND LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES...AND STRONG JET STREAM WINDS OVERHEAD. BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. STORM
MOTION WILL BE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AT 20 TO 30 MPH.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35
KNOTS ON LARGER OPEN LAKES...THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY AND NEAR
SHORE ATLANTIC.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42084
513. LargoFl
4:08 PM GMT on March 19, 2013
the solid overcast is broken here by me, full sunshine so we WILL get the daytime heating..we really do need to watch these storms later on today.............THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ADEQUATE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA TODAY. MODEST INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH RATHER COLD
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAY SUPPORT SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN
HAZARDS BEING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. STORMS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES
AS THE STORMS MOVE TO THE EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. WITH THE STORM
MOTION TO THE EAST TODAY...THE BEST AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS
SHOULD BE OVER INTERIOR AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42084
512. PedleyCA
4:05 PM GMT on March 19, 2013


Looks good but with all the clouds might not see it get there. 57.1 here..
Got an extensive Marine layer again. Is it June? Are we 3 months out of sync?

Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6228
511. RitaEvac
3:59 PM GMT on March 19, 2013
Initial storm mode will be isolated strong to severe supercells which will gradually transition into a broken line of thunderstorms. Storms should affect most of the areas north of I-10 and possibly all the way to the coast overnight. TX TECH WRF model shows most of the activity focused in the corridor from College Station to Liberty while the HRRR shows more widespread activity affecting nearly all of the area but does weaken any storms as they cross south of I-10 toward the coast. Current thinking is that storms will develop and affect much of the northern counties of SE TX this evening and then begin to weaken with the loss of heating and instability by late evening as they move south of I-10. The overall severe threat looks marginal with hail being the primary threat.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9686
510. RTSplayer
3:59 PM GMT on March 19, 2013
Quoting barbamz:
Hmm, I just saw this on Science Daily. Sorry, if it has been already posted. Have a nice day everybody!

Ten Times More Hurricane Surges in Future, New Research Predicts

Mar. 18, 2013 — By examining the frequency of extreme storm surges in the past, previous research has shown that there was an increasing tendency for storm hurricane surges when the climate was warmer. But how much worse will it get as temperatures rise in the future? How many extreme storm surges like that from Hurricane Katrina, which hit the U.S. coast in 2005, will there be as a result of global warming? New research from the Niels Bohr Institute show that there will be a tenfold increase in frequency if the climate becomes two degrees Celsius warmer.

Read the whole arcticle


The easy way to see that is to take a SST map of the West Atlantic from any given day in the middle of hurricane season.

Got it?

Now add 2C to every line.

24C is now 26C
31C is now 33C
etc.

That's not exact, but it should be a decent estimate for 30N. Areas North of 30N will warm faster than that.
Member Since: January 25, 2012 Posts: 33 Comments: 1520
509. VR46L
3:58 PM GMT on March 19, 2013
Quoting RitaEvac:
Keep an eye to TX radar, storms supposed to fire in central TX and north of I-10


Yep can see them starting to fire up on the Penn Ewall IR Sat

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6997
508. RitaEvac
3:58 PM GMT on March 19, 2013
High resolution short term models show a rapid increase in thunderstorms late this afternoon from central TX into the northern sections of SE TX along the warm front as strong lift from the disturbance moves into an increasingly unstable air mass. Forecasted instability of 1000-1500 J/kg is expect north of I-10 by mid to late afternoon and this combined with favorable shear will support a few strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail being the primary threat. Low level winds typically back near warm fronts and potentially can enhance the tornado threat however surface dewpoints only near 60 suggest high cloud bases and this will likely reduce the tornado threat.
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9686
507. txjac
3:56 PM GMT on March 19, 2013
Quoting RitaEvac:
Keep an eye to TX radar, storms supposed to fire in central TX and north of I-10


Of course ...has to be north of I-10 ...can you push them south a bit? Only about three miles south of 10 would be good for me
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2617
506. RitaEvac
3:52 PM GMT on March 19, 2013
Keep an eye to TX radar, storms supposed to fire in central TX and north of I-10, tonight
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 9686
505. VR46L
3:47 PM GMT on March 19, 2013
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
jackson ms (severe wx kings IMO) are the only ones mentioning it


.



Yep I agree with you Jackson area seems to catch most of the severe weather . I guess thats why they have the warnings up earlier and also have in my opinion, one of the easiest to navigate NWS sites , they just have to stay aware at all times :(
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6997
504. FunnelVortex
3:41 PM GMT on March 19, 2013
This mass of storms interests me
Member Since: October 20, 2012 Posts: 7 Comments: 2893
503. JNCali
3:40 PM GMT on March 19, 2013
Morning All! beautiful cool day here in Mid TN.. Damage to the North (about 15 miles) trying to locate images
Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1034
502. GeorgiaStormz
3:29 PM GMT on March 19, 2013
jackson ms (severe wx kings IMO) are the only ones mentioning it




A STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT COULD
EVENTUALLY SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS WE GO
INTO THE FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AS THE
SPLIT UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHES. CIPS ANALOGS SHOW MIXED SIGNALS
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS POINT...BUT THE TREND TOWARD A SEVERE
WEATHER SET-UP SUGGESTS WE SHOULD HAVE A MENTION IN THE
HWO/GRAPHICS
. ONE OTHER THING TO NOTE CONCERNING TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...THERE COULD BE LARGE FORECAST ERRORS AS
EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT AND IS IN DOUBT AND THERE COULD BE
A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT. HAVE TAKEN SOMEWHAT OF A BLEND BETWEEN THE
WARM MEX MOS AND ECMWF TO KEEP CONSISTENCY WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST
GRIDS.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9757
501. trHUrrIXC5MMX
3:28 PM GMT on March 19, 2013
guten tag Barbam!

surface at 162 hrs, 06GFS.... another storm possible, depending on track
Next Tuesday March 26

Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Hmm, I just saw this on Science Daily. Sorry, if it has been already posted. Have a nice day everybody!

Ten Times More Hurricane Surges in Future, New Research Predicts

Mar. 18, 2013 — By examining the frequency of extreme storm surges in the past, previous research has shown that there was an increasing tendency for storm hurricane surges when the climate was warmer. But how much worse will it get as temperatures rise in the future? How many extreme storm surges like that from Hurricane Katrina, which hit the U.S. coast in 2005, will there be as a result of global warming? New research from the Niels Bohr Institute show that there will be a tenfold increase in frequency if the climate becomes two degrees Celsius warmer.

Read the whole arcticle
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1900hurricane:

It's been the most southerly model with that trough lately. Yesterday's 12Z even brought some heavy snow to North Texas!

Quoting 1900hurricane:





actually now its further north (which is what excited me since before it was only south), than even the ECMWF, which is hanging south, the GFS fluctuates between going more north or more south.


I think a 990mb low at memphis would cause something somewhere even without a LLJ in the warm sector.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9757
ECMWF is also potentially bad for jackson to montgomery and south.

no LLJ though, cold aloft, 1000-1500 CAPE, maybe hail/wind
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9757
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
cmc could be a south mississippi/alabama event





nasty little trough

almost snows in GA

It's been the most southerly model with that trough lately. Yesterday's 12Z even brought some heavy snow to North Texas!

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 47 Comments: 11709
This would get hairy:








60-75F in warm sector








Luckily for some the LLJ is weaker, and the surface low forming off shore takes over, pushing cold air into the warm sector.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9757
cmc could be a south mississippi/alabama event





nasty little trough

almost snows in GA
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9757
Miami NWS Disco

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1032 AM EDT TUE MAR 19 2013

.UPDATE...

THE MAIN QUESTION FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS WILL THE CLOUD COVER
SCATTER OUT TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM ENOUGH FOR SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES TO DEVELOP. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER THE
REGION THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL JET WAS LOCATED NEAR THE
LAKE...AND THIS WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY BUT REMAIN
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE
REGION WILL SCATTER OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS DRIER AIR WORKS
ITS WAY IN FROM THE GULF. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UP TO
10KFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...AND WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL JET OVERHEAD...EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY. THE RAIN YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT HAS STABILIZED
THE ATMOSPHERE SOMEWHAT...AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO FIRE
UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON. SO TOOK OUT POPS FOR THE MORNING HOURS.
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF AHEAD OF
THE COLD IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SO LEFT THE 30 POPS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE THAT MANY STORMS WILL
BE ABLE TO FIRE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON IS LOW.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning. I just finished my Tropical Cyclone Reports on Tony and Aletta.
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I'm sure there were a lot of spinup tornadoes yesterday, ef-0 150yd types...a lot of shed damage reports etc, and lots of them probably unnoticed in forests. The fact that the MCS was cellular supports that idea.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9757
Quoting Neapolitan:
Temperatures are still upside down across parts of the world. For example: it's 35 in Thule, Greenland, a location 750 miles north of the Arctic Circle, and less than a thousand miles from the North Pole. Meanwhile, it's below zero in parts of the Upper Midwest--and Lanai City in Hawaii is just 20 degrees or so warmer than Thule.


Oh, wow; that is just scary sick (the temps part, not the political sub-part! Or, maybe that too...LOL)!
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