Are atmospheric flow patterns favorable for summer extreme weather increasing?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:45 PM GMT on March 11, 2013

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In 2010, Russia baked through its most intense heat wave in recorded history, one that killed over 55,000 people. At the same time, intense rains deluged Pakistan, bringing that nation its worst natural disaster in its history. The following year, it was the United States' turn for extreme heat, as the nation sweltered through its third hottest summer on record, and Oklahoma suffered the hottest month any U.S. state has ever recorded. The U.S. summer of 2012 was even more extreme. Only the Dust Bowl summer of 1936 was hotter, and drought conditions were the most extensive since the 1930s. All of these events--and many more unusually extreme summer months in recent decades--had a common feature, said scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany, in a research paper published in March 2013 in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. According to the authors, "each time one of these extremes struck, a strong wave train had developed in the atmosphere, circling the globe in mid-latitudes. These so-called planetary waves are well-known and a normal part of atmospheric flow. What is not normal is that the usually moving waves ground to a halt and were greatly amplified during the extreme events. Looking into the physics behind this, we found it is due to a resonance phenomenon. Under special conditions, the atmosphere can start to resonate like a bell. The wind patterns form a regular wave train, with six, seven or eight peaks and troughs going once around the globe". Using a complex theoretical mathematical description of the atmosphere and 32 years of historical weather data, the scientists showed that human-caused global warming might be responsible for this resonance phenomenon, which became twice as common during 2001 - 2012 compared to the previous 22 years.


Figure 1. Drought-damaged corn in a field near Nickerson, Nebraska, Aug. 16, 2012. The great U.S. drought of 2012 was the most extensive U.S. drought since the 1930s Dust Bowl. Damage from the 2012 drought is at least $35 billion, and probably much higher. The associated heat wave killed 123 people, and brought the U.S. its second hottest summer on record. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik)


Figure 2. Business was slow at the Lake Conroe, Texas jet ski rental in 2011, thanks to the great Texas drought and heat wave of 2011. Texas endured its driest 1-year period on record in 2011, and had the hottest summer ever recorded by a U.S. state. July 2011 in Oklahoma was the hottest month any U.S. state has ever recorded, and the contiguous U.S. had its third hottest summer on record. The total direct losses to crops, livestock and timber from the drought, heat wave, and record fires of the summer of 2011 are estimated at $12 billion, with a death toll of 95. Image credit: wunderphotographer BEENE.


Figure 3. Tourists wear protective face masks as they walk along the Red Square in Moscow, Russia on Aug. 6, 2010. Moscow was shrouded by a dense smog that grounded flights at international airports and seeped into homes and offices, due to wildfires worsened by the city's most intense heat wave in its history. The heat wave and fires during the summer of 2010 killed over 55,000 people in Russia and decimated the Russian wheat crop, causing global food prices to spike. (AP Photo/Mikhail Metzel)

Two fundamental atmospheric flow patterns may be resonating more often due to global warming
Earth's atmosphere has two fundamental patterns. One is a series of wave-like troughs and ridges in the jet stream called planetary (or Rossby) waves, which march west-to-east at about 15 - 25 mph around the globe. The other pattern behaves more like a standing wave, with no forward motion, and is created by the unequal heating of the equatorial regions compared to the poles, modulated by the position of the continents and oceans. A number of papers have been published showing that these two patterns can interact and resonate in a way that amplifies the standing wave pattern, causing the planetary waves to freeze in their tracks for weeks, resulting in an extended period of extreme heat or flooding, depending upon where the high-amplitude part of the wave lies. But what the Potsdam Institute scientists found is that because human-caused global warming is causing the Arctic to heat up more than twice as rapidly as the rest of the planet, the two patterns are interacting more frequently during the summer. During the most recent eleven years, 2002 - 2012, there were eight Julys and Augusts that showed this unusually extreme resonance pattern (this includes the U.S. heat wave of July - August 2012.) The two previous eleven year periods, 1991 - 2001 and 1980 - 1990, had just four extreme months apiece. Global warming could certainly cause this observed increase in the resonance phenomenon, but the researchers cautioned, "The suggested physical process increases the probability of weather extremes, but additional factors certainly play a role as well, including natural variability. Also, the 32-year period studied in the project provides a good indication of the mechanism involved, yet is too short for definitive conclusions. So there's no smoking gun on the table yet--but quite telling fingerprints all over the place."



Figure 4. The northward wind speed (negative values, blue on the map, indicate southward flow) at an altitude of 300 mb in the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during July 2011 and July 1980. July of 2011 featured an unusually intense and long-lasting heat wave in the U.S., and the normally weak and irregular waves (like observed during the relatively normal July of 1980) were replaced by a strong and regular wave pattern. Image credit: Vladimir Petoukhov.

Commentary
The new Potsdam Institute paper gives us a mathematical description of exactly how global warming may be triggering observed fundamental changes in large-scale atmospheric flow patterns, resulting in the observed increase in unusually intense and long-lasting periods of extreme weather over the past eleven years. The paper also adds important theoretical support to the research published in 2012 by Dr. Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University, which found that the amplitude of Earth's planetary waves had increased by over 100 miles (161 km) in summer over the past decade in the Northern Hemisphere. Dr. Francis theorized that this change was connected to increased heating of the Arctic relative to the rest of the Earth, due to the observed decline in late spring Northern Hemisphere snow cover. Humans tend to think linearly--one plus one equals two. However, the atmosphere is fundamentally non-linear. What may seem to be modest changes in Earth's climate can trigger unexpected resonances that will amplify into extreme changes--cases where one plus one equals four, or eight, or sixteen. In some cases, when you rock the boat too far, it won't simply roll a bit more, it will reach a tipping point where it suddenly capsizes. Similarly, human-caused global warming is capable of pushing the climate past a tipping point where we enter a new climate regime, one far more disruptive than what we are used to.

Julys and Augusts since 1980 when quasiresonant extreme conditions were observed
The Potsdam Institute's research lists sixteen July and August periods since 1980 that have had extreme atmospheric flow patterns due to quasiresonance. These months featured severe regional heat waves and destructive floods in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, detailed below. Half of these months occurred in the most recent 11-year period, 2002 - 2012. During most of these extreme months, there was not a moderate or strong La Niña or El Niño event contributing to the extremes. Summers when a La Niña or El Niño event was present are listed in parentheses, based on the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI).

July and early August 2012: Catastrophic floods in China and Japan, as well as record-breaking temperatures during heat waves in the United States and southern Europe (weak summer El Niño)

July 2011: Record heat wave in the United States, resulting in the fourth warmest July on record nationally and the driest conditions in the southern United States ever (weak summer La Niña)

July/August 2010: Russian heat wave and the Pakistan flood, with the strongest and most persistent extreme weather conditions and the highest death tolls from heat waves and floods ever for these two regions (strong summer La Niña)

July 2006: Temperatures higher than 100°F for only the second time in Britain’s history and much of Europe experiencing a serious heat wave (weak summer El Niño)

August 2004: Much of northern Europe hit by very low winter-like temperatures and sporadic snowfalls (moderate to strong summer El Niño)

August 2003: European summer 2003 heat wave, causing a highly persistent drought in western Europe (weak summer El Niño)

August 2002: Catastrophic Elbe and Danube floods (strong summer El Niño)

July 2000: Destructive floods in northern Italy and the Tisza basin and a simultaneous heat wave in the southern United States, smashing all-time high-temperature records by that time at many sites (strong summer La Niña)

July/August 1997: Disastrous Great European Flood, which caused several deaths in central Europe, and the destroying floods in Pakistan and western United States (strong summer El Niño)

July 1994: Very strong heat wave in southern Europe, with a national temperature record of 47.2°C set in Spain (weak summer El Niño)

July 1993: Unprecedented great flood in the United States that reigned over the country from April (weak summer El Niño)

July 1989: Unusually intense and unprecedented widespread drought in the United States (weak summer La Niña)

August 1987: Severe drought in the southeastern United States (strong summer El Niño)

August 1984: Continuation of the severe heat of summer 1983, with serious drought in the United States (weak summer La Niña)

July and August 1983: Very dry conditions, severe heat, and substandard crop growth (5–35% below normal) in the Midwest United States (weak summer El Niño)

Links
Petoukhov, V., Rahmstorf, S., Petri, S., Schellnhuber, H. J. (2013), "Quasi-resonant amplification of planetary waves and recent Northern Hemisphere weather extremes" Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, (Early Edition) [doi:10.1073/pnas.1222000110]. No subscription required, but understanding this article requires a graduate-level understanding of the mathematical theory of atmospheric dynamics. Try reading instead this easy-to-read description of the paper by the authors, published at http://theconversation.edu.au.

Press release issued in March 2013 by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), "Weather extremes provoked by trapping of giant waves in the atmosphere."

In this 40-minute lecture presented in 2013 at the University of Arkansas, Dr. Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University explains the linkage between warming in the Arctic due to human-caused global warming and an observed shift in Northern Hemisphere jet stream patterns.

Linking Weird Weather to Rapid Warming of the Arctic, a March 2012 article by Dr. Jennifer Francis in the Yale Environment 360.

Francis, J.A., and S.J.Vavrus, 2012, "Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes", GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 39, L06801, doi:10.1029/2012GL051000, 2012

Jeff Masters

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813. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
3:26 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
little clipper

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 168 Comments: 53285
812. Neapolitan
3:06 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
Quoting AGWcreationists:

Hardly. The underlying concepts of hypocrisy and double standards are the same in both cases.
No, they're not.

If I'm attempting to sway you to join my religion by telling you that if you do, you'll never desire fast food again, you're going to be very put out if you see me in a McDonalds stuffing a QPWC down my throat. That's because by doing so, I've just disproved the very basis of my argument to you.

OTOH, If I'm attempting to convince you to understand and support climate change theory by showing you that the planet is warming and the ice is melting, it would be illogical for you to ignore that evidence simply because you saw me driving around town in a Hummer; regardless of what I do or don't do, that warming and melting is still happening.

Can you not see the difference?
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13442
811. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:56 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
Moved to new blog -->
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31315
810. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:51 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
809. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:46 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
Quoting KoritheMan:

Yeah, there's that too. Makes me wonder if there's not some sort of unforeseen climatic signal that's altering the mean Atlantic storm track, related to AGW or otherwise.


Quoting Levi32:

And please, Sandy counts as a hurricane landfall and always will, even if not officially.


As much as Ida does.

Sandy retained a warm core all the way up to landfall. For all intents and purposes, it was a hurricane.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31315
808. ncstorm
2:40 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
I see "Gotcha" is the new word today boys and girls..I'm having Sarah Palin flashbacks..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14242
807. wunderkidcayman
2:37 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm not making any predictions on hurricane season until about May.I need to see how conditions set up.Especially since the ni�o regions have been going in and out of warm/cool.Remember last year when most people were predicting a average to below average hurricane season?.It looked like a el ni�o would develop but instead it did a 180 and we got more storms than anybody anticipated.I do like hurricane seasons like these because they throw people off,and shows we still have lots to lean.


good point, but look people will still do it, and plus there is no harm done for doing so, more so if they do updates on there forecast as time draws nearer and if the numbers change, it will be interesting to see how they have changed and the reasons behind that change. don't you think?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 10852
806. AGWcreationists
2:36 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
Quoting Neapolitan:
It isn't a diversion to bring it up once. When it becomes a diversionary tactic is when it's brought up repeatedly for the dual purposes of both sidetracking the conversation away from what's happening, and trying to jump out of the closet with a "Gotcha!!!".Of course, religion is by definition based upon personal faith, not evidence. Climate science, on the other hand, is based strictly on empirical science, so your analogy fails, I'm afraid.

Hardly. The underlying concepts of hypocrisy and double standards are the same in both cases.
Member Since: November 25, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 489
805. AGWcreationists
2:34 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
Quoting MahFL:
In some parts of the USA, your not allowed to line dry, normally housing asociation rules. It's regarded are being "poor" to have to line dry.

I line dry within the house. But this country really does need to re-examine a lot of its concepts. Being 'rich' often equates to being wasteful.
Member Since: November 25, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 489
804. Neapolitan
2:33 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
Quoting AGWcreationists:
It is not a diversion to raise this issue.
It isn't a diversion to bring it up once. When it becomes a diversionary tactic is when it's brought up repeatedly for the dual purposes of both sidetracking the conversation away from what's happening, and trying to jump out of the closet with a "Gotcha!!!".
Quoting AGWcreationists:
The world is full of people who talk the talk and don't walk the walk, be it environmentalism, Christianity or any other belief system.
Of course, religion is by definition based upon personal faith, not evidence. Climate science, on the other hand, is based strictly on empirical science, so your analogy fails, I'm afraid.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13442
803. MahFL
2:31 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
In some parts of the USA, your not allowed to line dry, normally housing asociation rules. It's regarded as being "poor" to have to line dry.
Member Since: June 9, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 3176
802. AGWcreationists
2:24 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I agree with you that one should be willing to practice what they preach. You have no idea of what I do on a personal basis and your asking me what I do by means of a blog sight is bit pointless, do you not agree? I could tell that I ride a bicycle everywhere I go, but I do not.

Here is what I "preach":

1. Consume less.

2. Plan trips for the shortest route and combine as many errands as possible into one trip.

3. Recycle all that I can.

4. Repair what is repairable instead of discarding.

5. Donate what is still unusable but I no longer need or want.

6. Adjust your thermostat.

7. Keep your tires properly inflated.

8. Keep your vehicle(s) properly tuned.

9. Drive within the speed limit.

10. Replace your car with a more mileage efficient car when it your car is due to be replaced.

11. Replace incandescent light bulbs with CFL or LED bulbs.

12. Wash clothes in the coldest water possible.

13. Wash a full load of clothes at a time without over loading the washer.

14. Dry clothes no longer to get them dry.

15. Do not completely dry clothes that will be hung in a closet.

What do I actually practice? ALL of the above.

What do I plan to further do to lessen my carbon footprint? I am always looking for ways to further reduce my carbon footprint.

I find it very interesting that you that lower your carbon footprint even though you do not seem to believe there are reasons to do so in order to mitigate the CO2 emissions. Perhaps you have discovered what I have? When you do these things it saves you a lot of money! Should this be incentive to do so, then this is incentive enough.

I line dry my clothing, it doesn't require energy and the clothing lasts longer, plus it doesn't shrink my shirts which is a plus given my height (2 meters).

I haven't driven my car in almost two years. I take trains, busses and walk from transit stops. Most of my grocery shopping is done as part of my evening commute home. Plus, it forces me to walk 4-7 miles a day no matter the weather.

I do not drink soda or bottled water, I use tap water as it is very energy-intensive to transport fluids.

I keep the thermostat very low in winter.

My main carbon splurge is a room AC in the summer in the bedroom so I can sleep at night, but I only run it when I am home and it is an Energy Star unit. It takes a lot less energy to move heat than to create it.

My other carbon splurge is flying to see my elderly parents 3 times a year. Considering they live 1400 miles away and there is no good train service to there, I don't have much of an option. I am considering moving to the town where they live, my company has a branch office there and it is next to a train station so I could commute by rail there as well.

I seldom eat meat other than chicken. It takes a lot less feed to make a pound of chicken than it takes to make a pound of pork or beef, and less feed means less energy expended to grow that feed. I also eat small portions of chicken with each meal and emphasize veggies and carbs more.

I seldom eat fish. The options there are not very good - either deplete wild stocks or patronize aquaculture with all the inherent environmental issues that industry has shown. That is less about carbon and more about the well-being of the oceans.

Also, I eat little prepared/processed food. It takes energy to create those products as well, and your diet will be healthier. My main exception is canned tomatoes.

When possible, buy local produce. Grow some of your own if you have space for it. Donate surpluses to food banks.

I'm an AGW skeptic. I just abhorr wasteful behavior.

For all of the chest-thumping about AGW proponents not revealing what they are doing to reduce their carbon footprint, to me, if you believe in AGW, you need to actively work on your lifestyle and promote such as well as an example.

It is not a diversion to raise this issue. The world is full of people who talk the talk and don't walk the walk, be it environmentalism, Christianity or any other belief system. Al Gore comes to mind as Exhibit A.
Member Since: November 25, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 489
801. washingtonian115
2:14 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
I'm not making any predictions on hurricane season until about May.I need to see how conditions set up.Especially since the nio regions have been going in and out of warm/cool.Remember last year when most people were predicting a average to below average hurricane season?.It looked like a el nio would develop but instead it did a 180 and we got more storms than anybody anticipated.I do like hurricane seasons like these because they throw people off,and shows we still have lots to lean.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16325
800. pcola57
2:12 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
Quoting Chucktown:
Lets see the how the warming alarmists spin this - ready, set, go !!


Link


Ridiculous 8yr cherry picked data and summary..
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6759
799. goosegirl1
1:59 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
Quoting Chucktown:
Lets see the how the warming alarmists spin this - ready, set, go !!


Link


No spin is needed. The lady told us she cherry-picked her data- maybe hoping she wouldn't be called on it if she admitted it herself.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1222
798. SFLWeatherman
1:58 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
From me!:)
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4379
797. washingtonian115
1:49 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
Quoting kwgirl:
Good morning everyone. Well the front came through the keys yesterday and ruined my chance to see the comet. Couldn't even see the sun for the cloud cover. Hopefully tonight will be clear. Our Temps have dropped. I awoke to 68 degrees and now it is 66 even with the sun rising. Glad I brought my sweater with me. Have a good day all.
66 in the morning here is short sleeve weather!.We take advantage of that up here and go out on a morning stroll/jog.Nice weather indeed.Unfortunately we only get those morning lows if highs that day are going to be in the 80's or 90's.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16325
796. VR46L
1:43 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
Quoting Chucktown:
Lets see the how the warming alarmists spin this - ready, set, go !!


Link


Too Funny !!


I suspect they will try and swat it away !
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6801
795. Neapolitan
1:39 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
Quoting Chucktown:
Lets see the how the warming alarmists spin this - ready, set, go !!


Link
Shorter: Joanne Nova proves once again that she still doesn't understand the difference between short-term noise--Nova's "cooling phase"--and long-term signal. That's too bad; her tens of ardent followers would be better served by someone who actually gets science, and isn't confused by the basics.

Anyway, just for JoNo:

warming

BTW: providing solid evidence that a contrarian non-climatologist doesn't understand science isn't "spin"; it's just the truth.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13442
794. kwgirl
1:32 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
Good morning everyone. Well the front came through the keys yesterday and ruined my chance to see the comet. Couldn't even see the sun for the cloud cover. Hopefully tonight will be clear. Our Temps have dropped. I awoke to 68 degrees and now it is 66 even with the sun rising. Glad I brought my sweater with me. Have a good day all.
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
793. Chucktown
1:28 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
Lets see the how the warming alarmists spin this - ready, set, go !!


Link
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1713
792. wunderkidcayman
1:13 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
hey guys how are you

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Good morning everyone,

I just pulled together the latest score card with all your thoughts, thanks to all
If anyone else wants to tell me theirs, just go to my blog and I'll add you in

check it out..

click image for larger view...


hey add my my numbers for 2013 are

TS H MH
17 11 4
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 10852
791. Chucktown
1:01 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
Here's a nice write up from NWS ILM about Superstorm 1993 - hard to believe it was 20 years today. Great learning experience for me as I was a brand new, bright-eyed met student at Millersville. Gettin old !!

Link
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1713
790. StormTrackerScott
12:59 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
Quoting AussieStorm:
Dang, Most of Florida and Alabama have red flag warnings.



After an extremely wet rainy season last year from May to October it's been very DRY ever since.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2239
789. Midweststorm
12:58 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
I find the blog post to be a very interesting article on the info that appears to be reasonable for research. I have to wonder how much is natural variability though (we know there is some variability due to natural cycles). I would definately be more interested in seeing more information on this if anyone has one, can they WU mail me.

-MWS
Member Since: August 5, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 96
788. StormTrackerScott
12:54 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
Quoting AussieStorm:

Hey Max. How about a forecast on how many Tornadoes this year? I say 1500.


I'm going 950 as I don't think this upcoming season is going to be that active. This drought will likely be the main player on where we see tornadoes this year. I suspect we will see some big outbreaks from Dixie Alley up to Ill & Indiana. The traditional Tornado Alley could be quiet this year.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2239
787. AussieStorm
12:54 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
Dang, Most of Florida and Alabama have red flag warnings.

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15882
786. trHUrrIXC5MMX
12:53 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
Quoting AussieStorm:

I didn't say deaths from Tornadoes.
idk...I have to go, see ya.

Thanks for those who participated...I'll get some more hopefully
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14870
785. AussieStorm
12:52 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
Anyone heard from Patrap?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15882
784. AussieStorm
12:50 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CHILD ABDUCTION EMERGENCY
WEST VIRGINIA STATE POLICE
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
742 AM EDT WED MAR 13 2013

THIS IS AN IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT REGARDING AN ABDUCTED CHILD IN
ROCK CAVE IN UPSHUR COUNTY. THE WEST VIRGINIA STATE POLICE ARE
LOOKING FOR SHAINA NICOLE TENNEY...A WHITE FEMALE 16 YEARS OLD 5
FEET 2 INCHES TALL AND 225 POUNDS WITH BLACK HAIR AND HAZEL EYES.
THE CHILD WAS LAST SEEN AT A RESIDENCE LOCATED IN ROCK CAVE WEST
VIRGINIA AND IS BELIEVED TO BE IN EXTREME DANGER. THE CHILD WAS
LAST SEEN WEARING BLACK STRETCH PANTS...GRAY SHIRT WITH A BLACK OR
GRAY HOODIE AND WHITE TENNIS SHOES. AUTHORITIES ADVISE THE CHILD
WAS LIKELY ABDUCTED BY A FAMILY MEMBER BY THE NAME OF MARGEL
TENNEY WHO IS 5 FEET 8 INCHES TALL AND 200 POUNDS WITH BLUE EYES
AND WEARING A BLACK SWEATSHIRT AND BLUE JEANS WITH RED WING BOOTS.

THEY MAY BE TRAVELING IN A 2003 TAN FORD TAURUS... WITH THE
LICENSE PLATE NUMBER 2LW 179. THEY WERE LAST SEEN TRAVELING ON
WEST VIRGINIA ROUTE 20 SOUTHBOUND NEAR THE UPSHUR AND WEBSTER
COUNTY LINE. IF YOU HAVE ANY INFORMATION ON THE WHEREABOUTS OF
SHAINA NICOLE TENNEY PLEASE CONTACT THE WEST VIRGINIA STATE POLICE
BUCKHANNON DETACHMENT AT 304-473-4200 OR THE WEST VIRGINIA STATE
POLICE... YOUR LOCAL 911 OR *SP ON YOUR CELL PHONE.

$$
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15882
783. trHUrrIXC5MMX
12:49 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
Quoting allancalderini:
Amazing I like it a lot.excellent job.Have a great Wednesday everyone and enjoy it greatly.


sure, same to you! :)
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14870
782. trHUrrIXC5MMX
12:49 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
Quoting AussieStorm:

Hey Max. How about a forecast on how many Tornadoes this year? I say 1500.


well, I won't be doing that one... maybe TA13x would...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14870
781. allancalderini
12:48 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Good morning everyone,

I just pulled together the latest score card with all your thoughts, thanks to all
If anyone else wants to tell me theirs, just go to my blog and I'll add you in

check it out..

click image for larger view...
Amazing I like it a lot.excellent job.Have a great Wednesday everyone and enjoy it greatly.
Member Since: October 15, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 3952
780. AussieStorm
12:48 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Good morning everyone,

I just pulled together the latest score card with all your thoughts, thanks to all
If anyone else wants to tell me theirs, just go to my blog and I'll add you in

check it out..

click image for larger view...

Hey Max. How about a forecast on how many Tornadoes this year? I say 1500.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15882
779. StormTrackerScott
12:43 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Good morning everyone,

I just pulled together the latest score card with all your thoughts, thanks to all
If anyone else want's to tell me theirs, just go to my blog and I'll add you in

check it out..

click image for larger view...


I'm going 17 9 4.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2239
778. trHUrrIXC5MMX
12:40 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
Good morning everyone,

I just pulled together the latest score card with all your thoughts, thanks to all
If anyone else wants to tell me theirs, just go to my blog and I'll add you in

check it out..

click image for larger view...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14870
777. StormTrackerScott
12:36 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
Gulf & SW Atlantic sea surface temps.

Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2239
776. LargoFl
12:27 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
Tampa 7-day.......................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36630
775. LargoFl
12:25 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36630
774. LargoFl
12:23 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
whew still cold in Georgia........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36630
773. FtMyersgal
12:21 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Only .22 here. I guess it's better than nothing.


Yeah I suppose you are right but it sure is dry down here. I know this is our dry season but we have fire alerts every day now.
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1216
772. StormTrackerScott
12:20 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
Quoting FtMyersgal:


It's chilly here in Fort Myers this morning 54° but we have a warm up coming and will see upper 80's by the end of next week. BTW we were forcast for 60% chance of showers yesterday. I received a whopping .02 inch :(


Only .22 here. I guess it's better than nothing.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2239
771. LargoFl
12:20 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
still winter in the northeast states huh......
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36630
770. LargoFl
12:17 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING.

* AFFECTED AREA... INLAND VOLUSIA... NORTHERN LAKE... ORANGE...
SEMINOLE... SOUTHERN BREVARD... OSCEOLA... INDIAN RIVER...
OKEECHOBEE... ST. LUCIE... MARTIN... COASTAL VOLUSIA...
SOUTHERN LAKE... NORTHERN BREVARD.

* WIND...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE FORECAST WITH
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

* HUMIDITY...MINIMUM AFTERNOON VALUES AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT
WITH 4 TO 6 HOURS BELOW 35 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL LIKELY OCCUR
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36630
769. FtMyersgal
12:17 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Yeah, those temps are for right on the coast due to the cooler ocean temps but inland temps are going to push 90 all next week.


It's chilly here in Fort Myers this morning 54° but we have a warm up coming and will see upper 80's by the end of next week. BTW we were forcast for 60% chance of showers yesterday. I received a whopping .02 inch :(
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1216
768. LargoFl
12:15 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36630
767. LargoFl
12:14 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Good Morning from C FL.

Say hi to the Upper 80's and low 90's next week for highs in Orlando.
Link
good morning, its chilly here this morning but i do hope your right, im getting a lil weary of winter,i need the warm sunshine back..come on spring.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36630
766. StormTrackerScott
12:14 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
Quoting LargoFl:
7-day for the Tampa Bay area..........


Yeah, those temps are for right on the coast due to the cooler ocean temps but inland temps are going to push 90 all next week.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2239
765. StormTrackerScott
12:12 PM GMT on March 13, 2013
Good Morning from C FL.

Say hi to the Upper 80's and low 90's next week for highs in Orlando.
Link
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 3 Comments: 2239
764. wxchaser97
11:56 AM GMT on March 13, 2013
Good morning everyone, evening Aussie.

Got a dusting to a half an inch of snow last night. More can be expected Friday night into Saturday and early next week for me. This time last year it was in the 60s, 70s, and even 80s, sigh.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7927
763. goosegirl1
11:40 AM GMT on March 13, 2013
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I believe that what bappit is saying that no one individual's efforts will help to mitigate the CO2 on a global scale. When someone asks, "Well, what are you doing to mitigate the CO2?" is trolling. (Look up the definition of "blog troll")

"IF you are big into believing that man is 100% cause . then you should set an example to people who dont completely buy into it !" - This is another trollish comment. Setting examples for safe flying, swimming or driving habits are not based upon if you believe in them or not. You may not believe in them but when you do not practice them you are putting everyone within your reach at risk. When you do this on a global scale you are putting everyone on the globe at risk. .. Have you never reasoned through the thought that one should always err on the side of caution? Do you understand the ramifications when you do not do so and more than just you are being put at risk?


Asking these kinds of questions also can be a form of logical fallacy- tu quoque. Link
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1222

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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