Are atmospheric flow patterns favorable for summer extreme weather increasing?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:45 PM GMT on March 11, 2013

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In 2010, Russia baked through its most intense heat wave in recorded history, one that killed over 55,000 people. At the same time, intense rains deluged Pakistan, bringing that nation its worst natural disaster in its history. The following year, it was the United States' turn for extreme heat, as the nation sweltered through its third hottest summer on record, and Oklahoma suffered the hottest month any U.S. state has ever recorded. The U.S. summer of 2012 was even more extreme. Only the Dust Bowl summer of 1936 was hotter, and drought conditions were the most extensive since the 1930s. All of these events--and many more unusually extreme summer months in recent decades--had a common feature, said scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany, in a research paper published in March 2013 in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. According to the authors, "each time one of these extremes struck, a strong wave train had developed in the atmosphere, circling the globe in mid-latitudes. These so-called planetary waves are well-known and a normal part of atmospheric flow. What is not normal is that the usually moving waves ground to a halt and were greatly amplified during the extreme events. Looking into the physics behind this, we found it is due to a resonance phenomenon. Under special conditions, the atmosphere can start to resonate like a bell. The wind patterns form a regular wave train, with six, seven or eight peaks and troughs going once around the globe". Using a complex theoretical mathematical description of the atmosphere and 32 years of historical weather data, the scientists showed that human-caused global warming might be responsible for this resonance phenomenon, which became twice as common during 2001 - 2012 compared to the previous 22 years.


Figure 1. Drought-damaged corn in a field near Nickerson, Nebraska, Aug. 16, 2012. The great U.S. drought of 2012 was the most extensive U.S. drought since the 1930s Dust Bowl. Damage from the 2012 drought is at least $35 billion, and probably much higher. The associated heat wave killed 123 people, and brought the U.S. its second hottest summer on record. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik)


Figure 2. Business was slow at the Lake Conroe, Texas jet ski rental in 2011, thanks to the great Texas drought and heat wave of 2011. Texas endured its driest 1-year period on record in 2011, and had the hottest summer ever recorded by a U.S. state. July 2011 in Oklahoma was the hottest month any U.S. state has ever recorded, and the contiguous U.S. had its third hottest summer on record. The total direct losses to crops, livestock and timber from the drought, heat wave, and record fires of the summer of 2011 are estimated at $12 billion, with a death toll of 95. Image credit: wunderphotographer BEENE.


Figure 3. Tourists wear protective face masks as they walk along the Red Square in Moscow, Russia on Aug. 6, 2010. Moscow was shrouded by a dense smog that grounded flights at international airports and seeped into homes and offices, due to wildfires worsened by the city's most intense heat wave in its history. The heat wave and fires during the summer of 2010 killed over 55,000 people in Russia and decimated the Russian wheat crop, causing global food prices to spike. (AP Photo/Mikhail Metzel)

Two fundamental atmospheric flow patterns may be resonating more often due to global warming
Earth's atmosphere has two fundamental patterns. One is a series of wave-like troughs and ridges in the jet stream called planetary (or Rossby) waves, which march west-to-east at about 15 - 25 mph around the globe. The other pattern behaves more like a standing wave, with no forward motion, and is created by the unequal heating of the equatorial regions compared to the poles, modulated by the position of the continents and oceans. A number of papers have been published showing that these two patterns can interact and resonate in a way that amplifies the standing wave pattern, causing the planetary waves to freeze in their tracks for weeks, resulting in an extended period of extreme heat or flooding, depending upon where the high-amplitude part of the wave lies. But what the Potsdam Institute scientists found is that because human-caused global warming is causing the Arctic to heat up more than twice as rapidly as the rest of the planet, the two patterns are interacting more frequently during the summer. During the most recent eleven years, 2002 - 2012, there were eight Julys and Augusts that showed this unusually extreme resonance pattern (this includes the U.S. heat wave of July - August 2012.) The two previous eleven year periods, 1991 - 2001 and 1980 - 1990, had just four extreme months apiece. Global warming could certainly cause this observed increase in the resonance phenomenon, but the researchers cautioned, "The suggested physical process increases the probability of weather extremes, but additional factors certainly play a role as well, including natural variability. Also, the 32-year period studied in the project provides a good indication of the mechanism involved, yet is too short for definitive conclusions. So there's no smoking gun on the table yet--but quite telling fingerprints all over the place."



Figure 4. The northward wind speed (negative values, blue on the map, indicate southward flow) at an altitude of 300 mb in the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during July 2011 and July 1980. July of 2011 featured an unusually intense and long-lasting heat wave in the U.S., and the normally weak and irregular waves (like observed during the relatively normal July of 1980) were replaced by a strong and regular wave pattern. Image credit: Vladimir Petoukhov.

Commentary
The new Potsdam Institute paper gives us a mathematical description of exactly how global warming may be triggering observed fundamental changes in large-scale atmospheric flow patterns, resulting in the observed increase in unusually intense and long-lasting periods of extreme weather over the past eleven years. The paper also adds important theoretical support to the research published in 2012 by Dr. Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University, which found that the amplitude of Earth's planetary waves had increased by over 100 miles (161 km) in summer over the past decade in the Northern Hemisphere. Dr. Francis theorized that this change was connected to increased heating of the Arctic relative to the rest of the Earth, due to the observed decline in late spring Northern Hemisphere snow cover. Humans tend to think linearly--one plus one equals two. However, the atmosphere is fundamentally non-linear. What may seem to be modest changes in Earth's climate can trigger unexpected resonances that will amplify into extreme changes--cases where one plus one equals four, or eight, or sixteen. In some cases, when you rock the boat too far, it won't simply roll a bit more, it will reach a tipping point where it suddenly capsizes. Similarly, human-caused global warming is capable of pushing the climate past a tipping point where we enter a new climate regime, one far more disruptive than what we are used to.

Julys and Augusts since 1980 when quasiresonant extreme conditions were observed
The Potsdam Institute's research lists sixteen July and August periods since 1980 that have had extreme atmospheric flow patterns due to quasiresonance. These months featured severe regional heat waves and destructive floods in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, detailed below. Half of these months occurred in the most recent 11-year period, 2002 - 2012. During most of these extreme months, there was not a moderate or strong La Niña or El Niño event contributing to the extremes. Summers when a La Niña or El Niño event was present are listed in parentheses, based on the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI).

July and early August 2012: Catastrophic floods in China and Japan, as well as record-breaking temperatures during heat waves in the United States and southern Europe (weak summer El Niño)

July 2011: Record heat wave in the United States, resulting in the fourth warmest July on record nationally and the driest conditions in the southern United States ever (weak summer La Niña)

July/August 2010: Russian heat wave and the Pakistan flood, with the strongest and most persistent extreme weather conditions and the highest death tolls from heat waves and floods ever for these two regions (strong summer La Niña)

July 2006: Temperatures higher than 100°F for only the second time in Britain’s history and much of Europe experiencing a serious heat wave (weak summer El Niño)

August 2004: Much of northern Europe hit by very low winter-like temperatures and sporadic snowfalls (moderate to strong summer El Niño)

August 2003: European summer 2003 heat wave, causing a highly persistent drought in western Europe (weak summer El Niño)

August 2002: Catastrophic Elbe and Danube floods (strong summer El Niño)

July 2000: Destructive floods in northern Italy and the Tisza basin and a simultaneous heat wave in the southern United States, smashing all-time high-temperature records by that time at many sites (strong summer La Niña)

July/August 1997: Disastrous Great European Flood, which caused several deaths in central Europe, and the destroying floods in Pakistan and western United States (strong summer El Niño)

July 1994: Very strong heat wave in southern Europe, with a national temperature record of 47.2°C set in Spain (weak summer El Niño)

July 1993: Unprecedented great flood in the United States that reigned over the country from April (weak summer El Niño)

July 1989: Unusually intense and unprecedented widespread drought in the United States (weak summer La Niña)

August 1987: Severe drought in the southeastern United States (strong summer El Niño)

August 1984: Continuation of the severe heat of summer 1983, with serious drought in the United States (weak summer La Niña)

July and August 1983: Very dry conditions, severe heat, and substandard crop growth (5–35% below normal) in the Midwest United States (weak summer El Niño)

Links
Petoukhov, V., Rahmstorf, S., Petri, S., Schellnhuber, H. J. (2013), "Quasi-resonant amplification of planetary waves and recent Northern Hemisphere weather extremes" Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, (Early Edition) [doi:10.1073/pnas.1222000110]. No subscription required, but understanding this article requires a graduate-level understanding of the mathematical theory of atmospheric dynamics. Try reading instead this easy-to-read description of the paper by the authors, published at http://theconversation.edu.au.

Press release issued in March 2013 by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), "Weather extremes provoked by trapping of giant waves in the atmosphere."

In this 40-minute lecture presented in 2013 at the University of Arkansas, Dr. Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University explains the linkage between warming in the Arctic due to human-caused global warming and an observed shift in Northern Hemisphere jet stream patterns.

Linking Weird Weather to Rapid Warming of the Arctic, a March 2012 article by Dr. Jennifer Francis in the Yale Environment 360.

Francis, J.A., and S.J.Vavrus, 2012, "Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes", GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 39, L06801, doi:10.1029/2012GL051000, 2012

Jeff Masters

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413. pcola57
12:58 PM GMT on March 12, 2013
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
the sun rising...


Good Morning Max..


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412. trHUrrIXC5MMX
12:58 PM GMT on March 12, 2013
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14870
411. trHUrrIXC5MMX
12:57 PM GMT on March 12, 2013
the sun rising...
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410. pcola57
12:57 PM GMT on March 12, 2013
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6760
409. pcola57
12:56 PM GMT on March 12, 2013
And moisture for some..



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408. pcola57
12:55 PM GMT on March 12, 2013
Good Morning All..
Lots of clouds around this am..




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407. trHUrrIXC5MMX
12:54 PM GMT on March 12, 2013
Quoting AussieStorm:

Didn't I say earlier it would miss New Caledonia


sure Aussie...
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406. StormTrackerScott
12:51 PM GMT on March 12, 2013
10 Day forecast for Orlando. If want the heat then you are coming to the right place.

Link
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405. StormTrackerScott
12:47 PM GMT on March 12, 2013
Very warm morning here. After this a couple of cool days then say hi to the upper 80's to near 90 next week.


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404. trHUrrIXC5MMX
12:43 PM GMT on March 12, 2013
flooding concerns

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403. Neapolitan
12:42 PM GMT on March 12, 2013
Quoting spathy:
I would love to see a Gov funded peer researched study on how climactic cycles can be attributed to the extremely normal weather the planet is subject to at this point in time.
How do you define "extremely normal weather"? And on what are you basing your statement?
Quoting spathy:
Can someone here please show me a scientific peer reviewed study in the past 30 years that has the negative MMGW hypothesis?
I contend that if your scientific question(hypothesis)is skewed to one side and you never study the antithesis of your agenda / preconceived notion. then you arent scientifically proving anything.

Please pick any of "your" most peer reviewed noteworthy "experts" and please show me where "they" tried to work the problem in reverse(math) or discount a hypothesis?
This statement shows a pretty serious misunderstanding in how the scientific method works. See, a scientist 1) observes a phenomenon, 2) develops a hypothesis to explain that phenonomenon, then 3) runs experiemnts to test that hypothesis. If those experiments prove that hypothesis invalid, it's tossed out; if not, it's kept alive, and other scientists are free to--in fact, are encouraged to--run those same or other experiments to see whether they can invalidate that hypothesis. You want to be shown where scientists tried to discount any hypothesis? That's easy; look at any peer-reviewed paper.
Quoting spathy:
...[C]an we be sure that we arent just flushing money down the toilet at the expense of being fiscally able to respond to natural cycles? Or worse,causing fiscal poverty assuring we cant even afford the normal expected disasters?
That depends on what you mean by "sure". If the weather forecast calls for an 90% chance of rain, do you just leave your umbrella at home because the meteorologists aren't 100% sure of rain?

Virtually every peer-reviewed paper published in the past few decades points at the same inescapable conclusion: doing nothing in the hopes that this will all just pass is the most foolish course we could possibly take.
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402. trHUrrIXC5MMX
12:40 PM GMT on March 12, 2013
Good morning everyone... wet day for us here :(
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401. barbamz
12:36 PM GMT on March 12, 2013
And it keeps on snowing nearly relentlessly! Chaos in mid Germany, at least concerning the traffic.



Frankfurt airport closed as snow causes Europe disruption
Kim Hjelmgaard, USA TODAY7:52a.m. EDT March 12, 2013

One of Europe's largest airport hubs, Frankfurt an Main, has been closed due to heavy snowfall, officials said Tuesday.

Stefan Schulte, a spokesman for airport operator Fraport AG, told the dpa news agency Tuesday the airport should remain closed until at least 1:30 p.m. (1230 GMT) when the snow is expected to let up.

Frankfurt has seen about 5 inches of snow and the airport, the third largest in Europe, had already canceled more than 100 flights and reported many delays.

It is not immediately clear how many more of the scheduled 1,200 flights will be canceled due to the closure.

Snow fell across parts of the United Kingdom, too, on Tuesday, as authorities struggled to clear roads in the south-east of the country. There was also traffic chaos in Belgium and France after heavy snow caused disruption and delays for drivers.

Contributing: Associated Press Source

European overview at BBC News

Snow halts Frankfurt flights and Eurostar trains

Heavy snow in north-western Europe is causing severe travel disruption, including the cancellation of hundreds of flights via Frankfurt and Paris.

The Eurostar high-speed train service between London and Paris has also been suspended.

In south-eastern England, hundreds of people were stranded in their cars by the snow as emergency services struggled with road chaos.

There were huge traffic jams in Belgium and northern France too.

Having received about 12cm (5in) of snow, Frankfurt airport was set to remain closed until at least 13:30 (12:30 GMT), said Stefan Schulte, a spokesman for airport operator Fraport AG.

More than 100 flights had already been cancelled, he added, but the final number was likely to be much higher.

Read more details
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Quoting barbamz:
Good morning everywhere. Lot of snow is falling in the mid of Germany, even in Mainz City in low leveled Rhine valley.





Good Morning/Afternoon barb..
Mainz looks beautiful in snow..
And the video of St. Malo France was interesting..
I especially liked the shot of the beach sands with snow on them next to the castle..
Thanks for the links and video barb..
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I remember seeing the big ones in the everglades. They were frightening but as you say, you could hear them coming. There, the swallows grew huge and would follow you to gobble them up.
Vultures sat on the tops of the hotel and watched tourists closely. It was like a whole food web, with tourists as the base.

It is greatfully wet here and still dark. I can't tell what is clouds and what is DST.
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Quoting LargoFl:


Yippee! Looks like some rain heading my way! Fingers crossed. Did you get a good rain Largo?
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Everyone have a great Tuesday. Aussie, Barbamz and Largeeyes, have a great Wednesday.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36653
Good morning to all,evening Aussie. No changes to the dry weather pattern for the rest of this week for the NE Caribbean.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
441 AM AST TUE MAR 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP LAYERED LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW AND A WEST NORTHWEST UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. VERY DRY AIR
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING
DEPICTED A VERY DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AS SUBSIDENCE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. IN FACT 12/00Z SOUNDING
INDICATED A PWAT OF 0.98 INCHES. THE GFS LAYER PWAT SUGGESTS PWAT
VALUES IN THE ORDER OF 1 INCH OR LESS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NOT
PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED OVER LAND AREA AND ACROSS THE SURROUNDING
WATERS OVERNIGHT AND SO FAR THIS MORNING. HOWEVER WITH THE EXPECTED
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW...SMALL PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOUR...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN LIGHT ISOLATED
SHOWERS UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH AMOUNTS NO MORE THAN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THE TAF SITE THROUGH THE
FCST PRD. SCT-BKN CLD LYRS BTW FL025-FL060 ...WITH L/LVL WND FLOW
BLO FL050 FM THE NE AT 10 KTS OR LESS...BCMG N-NW ABV AND INCR W/HT
TO MAX WND OF AROUND 65 KTS NR FL450.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH SEAS AND SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH SWELLS GENERATED BY SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SEAS PEAKED YESTERDAY
AT BUOY 41043 AT JUST OVER 12 FEET. A SECONDARY PEAK IN SWELL FROM
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE IN EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH TONIGHT BUT 7 FOOT OR GREATER SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE IN THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A VERY DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION IN
COMBINATION WITH AN INCREASING SUBSIDENCE PATTERN ALOFT AND LOWER
THAN NORMAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES VALUES WILL INCREASE THE FIRE RISK
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 71 82 71 / 0 10 10 20
STT 84 70 83 74 / 0 10 10 20
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Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. Afternoon, Barbamz and Largeeyes. 35 degrees here with a high in the mid sixties later.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: warm oatmeal with brown sugar, fresh fruit and orange juice.
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Mornin' Barb, Largo!

G'evevening mate!
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TC Sandra...





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Maps of ozone concentrations over the Arctic come from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on NASA’s Aura satellite. The left image shows March 19, 2010, and the right shows the same date in 2011. March 2010 had relatively high ozone, while March 2011 has low levels. (Credit: NASA/Goddard)

Causes of 2011 Arctic Ozone Hole Determined

Mar. 11, 2013 — A combination of extreme cold temperatures, human-made chemicals and a stagnant atmosphere were behind what became known as the Arctic ozone hole of 2011, a new NASA study finds.

Read the whole article on Science Daily

Have a nice day, fellow bloggers!
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 50 Comments: 5533
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36653
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36653
Had probably 12cm or so here in Berlin, another 1cm or so last night.
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The Big Picture...

South Pacific


South Indian


Sandra is becoming severely decoupled.







Loop


Loop


Loop

Why is Sandra being so severely disrupted. Take a look..

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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36653

Webcam Skyline Frankfurt

Edit: Wow, seems it's out of service since this morning. Probably due to heavy snowfall!
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 50 Comments: 5533
Good morning everywhere. Lot of snow is falling in the mid of Germany, even in Mainz City in low leveled Rhine valley.


Live Cam in my town Mainz

Some news about this March winter. Pretty much felt in Northern France as well:

Thousands without electricity in France winter storm
12 March 2013 - 06H15

AFP - More than 68,000 homes were without electricity in France and hundreds of people were trapped in their cars after a winter storm hit with heavy snow, officials and weather services said.

An accident near the northern city of Lille involving three cars that skidded in icy conditions on a motorway left 14 people injured, including six firefighters.

Twenty-six regions in northwest and northern France were put on orange alert because of heavy snowfalls, which Meteo France said were "remarkable for the season because of the expected quantity and length of time".

Conditions were forecast to improve early Wednesday.

Overnight Monday nearly 500 cars were blocked near Cherbourg where snowdrifts piled up 60 centimetres (almost two feet) as winds reached 100 kilometres (more than 60 miles) an hour.

More than 68,000 homes were without electricity in Normandy and Britanny at some point, but the ERDF utility said their numbers were down to 500 on Monday night.

Because of the severe weather civil aviation officials asked airlines to cancel up to 25 percent of flights from Roissy and Orly airports in Paris.

Snow also delayed trains on the Paris-Cherbourg line as well as TGV high-speed trains.

In Cherbourg, a ferry carrying 491 passengers from Ireland aborted its approach late Monday because of heavy seas and was expected to make another attempt early Tuesday.

Source



Europe gripped by winter weather outbreak

A winter outbreak with freezing temperatures, winter storms with snow and ice are wreaking havoc across Europe. In Germany, Tuesday morning saw dozens of traffic accidents as the cold moved further south and east.

Commuters in Germany's most populous state of North Rhine-Westphalia woke up to heavy snowfall and icy roads on Tuesday. Police reported dozens of traffic accidents as road conditions deteriorated.

Northern Germanyhad witnessed over 30 centimeters (one foot) of snowfall since Monday morning. This follows unusually warm weather last week that saw temperatures up to 20 degrees Celsius (68 degrees Fahrenheit) in some parts of Germany.

Thousands of schoolchildren in Schleswig-Holstein had to stay at home as schools remained closed as the regional administration was unable to clear the streets of ice and snow. Motorways were closed to traffic and public transport collapsed for several hours.

160 passengers were stranded on Monday at Rostock airport in the eastern state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania when their plane could not take off because of heavy snowfall. Hundreds of road accidents were recorded across Lower Saxony %u2013 with few of them resulting in injuries.

This follows Sunday's winter outbreak across Britain and Scandinavia, which then spread to Belgium and France in northeastern Europe.

Hundreds of drivers in Normandy, northern France, were stranded as heavy snow trapped them in their cars on a national highway on Monday evening.

The winter weather is spreading south and eastwards on Tuesday and was forecast to reach southern Germany by Wednesday, extending snow down to the Alps in the south and east towards Poland and other parts of Europe.

According to Germany's meteorological institutes temperatures are likely to remain below freezing until the latter part of the week.
rg/mz (dpa, AFP)

Source DW



Snowstorm at the northern coast of France (St. Malo)
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 50 Comments: 5533
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


hmm that last westward move made some people smile at the storm from the Island there...

Didn't I say earlier it would miss New Caledonia
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Big Surf at 3 Palmas, Rincon PR






nice surf indeed. Wouldn't mind riding those lefties.
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Quoting PedleyCA:
Well Goodnight People - Am I safe In saying that? Is it morning or afternoon to anyone presently? Don't want to slight anyone. Stay Safe and Stay Warm..
It's just at dusk here so I'm at Afternoon/evening.
Have a good night
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380. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #11
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDRA, CATEGORY THREE (17F)
18:00 PM FST March 12 2013
=========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Sandra (970 hPa) located at 20.9S 161.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 10 knots. Position fair based on hourly multi-spectral visible/enhanced infrared radar imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Hurricane Force Winds
=======================
30 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
===================
60 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
80 NM from the center elsewhere

Gale Force Winds
================
100 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
150 NM from the center elsewhere

Areal extend of deep convection has decreased in past 24 hours. Deep convection persistent over low level circulation center in past 6 hours. Outflow good especially to the south. System lies in high sheared environment under moderate upper divergence. Sea surface temperature is around 28C. SANDRA tracking along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge positioned to the east.

Dvorak analysis based on embedded center with MG surround, yielding DT=4.0, PT and MET agree.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.5/W1.0/24 HRS

Most model agree on a southward movement with gradual weakening.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 22.4S 161.9E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 24.1S 162.2E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 28.0S 162.6E - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
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Quoting Levi32:
The hemispheric pattern on long-range ensemble forecasts continues to encapsulate the general coalescence of a negative PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) pattern and a negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) pattern.

This pattern is still somewhat new to us here in the 21st century, as the 1950s were the last time period when this pattern was a common occurrence.

18z GFS Ensemble Day 10-15 500mb Mean Anomaly:



I think I would need a tidbit to understand that one. :) I wonder if that affects the drought. What Texas today has in common with Texas of the 50's. Although these articles mention the ENSO. Seems things can't be more different in India.

Drought worsening in parts of Texas

Parts of Texas receive no precipitation last month, drought deepening in some regions

National Weather Service meteorologist Victor Murphy said it's too early to say whether Texas is in for another bad drought year. Texas' driest year ever was 2011, when a La Nina pattern kept rains away while triple-digit temperatures baked the land and windy conditions sucked whatever moisture remained in the soil.

Murphy said there is an increased chance of below normal rainfall this month west of a line from Victoria to Wichita Falls.

"That's how we've been now for the last 30 months," he said of differing rainfall trends that have one half of the state getting rain and the other getting little to none. "Unfortunately, the South Texas area and the West Texas area are probably not going to get any rain."


India may avoid drought for fourth straight year

Reuters) - India may avoid a drought for a fourth straight year as the El Nino weather system looks unlikely to impact monsoon rains, a leading forecaster said on Thursday, promising yet another bumper grains output in the Asia's third-biggest economy.
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well, Gnite...my pillow is calling me over.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14870
377. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:15 PM CST March 12 2013
========================================

An active monsoon trough is located over the north coast and a developing Tropical Low 1000 hPa is located in the Gulf of Carpentaria near 11.5S 139.0E, about 195 km east of Nhulunbuy.

The low is expected to move east out of the Northern Region on Wednesday and continue to deepen over the next few days.
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sys. appears likly at end of run over the sw towards the east then northeast
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Well Goodnight People - Am I safe In saying that? Is it morning or afternoon to anyone presently? Don't want to slight anyone. Stay Safe and Stay Warm..
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re: 372. Levi32

Maybe new to you, grasshopper... but I'm also observing my 2nd warm AMO cycle... ;)
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The hemispheric pattern on long-range ensemble forecasts continues to encapsulate the general coalescence of a negative PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) pattern and a negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) pattern.

This pattern is still somewhat new to us here in the 21st century, as the 1950s were the last time period when this pattern was a common occurrence.

18z GFS Ensemble Day 10-15 500mb Mean Anomaly:

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Big Surf at 3 Palmas, Rincon PR




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Spathy...probability-wise, it would be unwise not to place the bet on this one, even if you assign it a .01% chance. The long-term risk is too high, far outweighing any near-term economic effect. Those enonomic effects themselves aren't a 100% certainty by any means that we'd be flushing all the money away...literally losing all of it in other words....when we all know that there would be some return on the money...and possibly a return that exceeds the cost. A good wager overall on an issue that we'll probably never know the definitive answer to(ie:what % is MM), even after the fact centuries from now.
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367. MTWX
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:
Has anyone heard anything from Patrap? Nothing to do with a speedo or socks. Just have not seen him post anything lately.


Posted on Facebook earlier saying he will be back on the blog soon.

Edit: didn't read through the rest of the posts... Sorry, been a long night
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Monday morning's magnitude 4.7 earthquake in Riverside County was the largest temblor to hit the Los Angeles region in three years and has produced more than 100 aftershocks.
It caused no major damage, but it was felt over what seismologists said was an unusually large area.

The quake was initially recorded as three separate quakes because a foreshock tricked seismographs into recording multiple quakes of multiple sizes, said Susan Hough, a USGS seismologist.

Earthquakes of a 4.7 magnitude are typically only felt about 120 miles away from the epicenter, but Monday morning's quake traveled farther, shaking coffee cups as far as Los Angeles. The USGS said it was felt as far away as Arizona.

That's because the quake occurred in the San Jacinto Mountains, which are composed of hard granite rock that transmits energy more efficiently, Hough said.

The quake occurred along the San Jacinto Fault Zone, which runs through San Bernardino, San Diego, Riverside and Imperial counties roughly parallel to the San Andreas Fault. It's one of three fault zones that absorb friction from the motion of the North American continent and the Pacific plates rubbing against each other.
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A short blog on Sandra. I should've been writing an essay instead of a blog but I'll take care of that later. Goodnight.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

I think that is old info. Sandra isn't slowly intensifying. In fact she is weakening.
Fiji Mets forecast map.


hmm that last westward move made some people smile at the storm from the Island there...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14870

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.