Are atmospheric flow patterns favorable for summer extreme weather increasing?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:45 PM GMT on March 11, 2013

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In 2010, Russia baked through its most intense heat wave in recorded history, one that killed over 55,000 people. At the same time, intense rains deluged Pakistan, bringing that nation its worst natural disaster in its history. The following year, it was the United States' turn for extreme heat, as the nation sweltered through its third hottest summer on record, and Oklahoma suffered the hottest month any U.S. state has ever recorded. The U.S. summer of 2012 was even more extreme. Only the Dust Bowl summer of 1936 was hotter, and drought conditions were the most extensive since the 1930s. All of these events--and many more unusually extreme summer months in recent decades--had a common feature, said scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany, in a research paper published in March 2013 in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. According to the authors, "each time one of these extremes struck, a strong wave train had developed in the atmosphere, circling the globe in mid-latitudes. These so-called planetary waves are well-known and a normal part of atmospheric flow. What is not normal is that the usually moving waves ground to a halt and were greatly amplified during the extreme events. Looking into the physics behind this, we found it is due to a resonance phenomenon. Under special conditions, the atmosphere can start to resonate like a bell. The wind patterns form a regular wave train, with six, seven or eight peaks and troughs going once around the globe". Using a complex theoretical mathematical description of the atmosphere and 32 years of historical weather data, the scientists showed that human-caused global warming might be responsible for this resonance phenomenon, which became twice as common during 2001 - 2012 compared to the previous 22 years.


Figure 1. Drought-damaged corn in a field near Nickerson, Nebraska, Aug. 16, 2012. The great U.S. drought of 2012 was the most extensive U.S. drought since the 1930s Dust Bowl. Damage from the 2012 drought is at least $35 billion, and probably much higher. The associated heat wave killed 123 people, and brought the U.S. its second hottest summer on record. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik)


Figure 2. Business was slow at the Lake Conroe, Texas jet ski rental in 2011, thanks to the great Texas drought and heat wave of 2011. Texas endured its driest 1-year period on record in 2011, and had the hottest summer ever recorded by a U.S. state. July 2011 in Oklahoma was the hottest month any U.S. state has ever recorded, and the contiguous U.S. had its third hottest summer on record. The total direct losses to crops, livestock and timber from the drought, heat wave, and record fires of the summer of 2011 are estimated at $12 billion, with a death toll of 95. Image credit: wunderphotographer BEENE.


Figure 3. Tourists wear protective face masks as they walk along the Red Square in Moscow, Russia on Aug. 6, 2010. Moscow was shrouded by a dense smog that grounded flights at international airports and seeped into homes and offices, due to wildfires worsened by the city's most intense heat wave in its history. The heat wave and fires during the summer of 2010 killed over 55,000 people in Russia and decimated the Russian wheat crop, causing global food prices to spike. (AP Photo/Mikhail Metzel)

Two fundamental atmospheric flow patterns may be resonating more often due to global warming
Earth's atmosphere has two fundamental patterns. One is a series of wave-like troughs and ridges in the jet stream called planetary (or Rossby) waves, which march west-to-east at about 15 - 25 mph around the globe. The other pattern behaves more like a standing wave, with no forward motion, and is created by the unequal heating of the equatorial regions compared to the poles, modulated by the position of the continents and oceans. A number of papers have been published showing that these two patterns can interact and resonate in a way that amplifies the standing wave pattern, causing the planetary waves to freeze in their tracks for weeks, resulting in an extended period of extreme heat or flooding, depending upon where the high-amplitude part of the wave lies. But what the Potsdam Institute scientists found is that because human-caused global warming is causing the Arctic to heat up more than twice as rapidly as the rest of the planet, the two patterns are interacting more frequently during the summer. During the most recent eleven years, 2002 - 2012, there were eight Julys and Augusts that showed this unusually extreme resonance pattern (this includes the U.S. heat wave of July - August 2012.) The two previous eleven year periods, 1991 - 2001 and 1980 - 1990, had just four extreme months apiece. Global warming could certainly cause this observed increase in the resonance phenomenon, but the researchers cautioned, "The suggested physical process increases the probability of weather extremes, but additional factors certainly play a role as well, including natural variability. Also, the 32-year period studied in the project provides a good indication of the mechanism involved, yet is too short for definitive conclusions. So there's no smoking gun on the table yet--but quite telling fingerprints all over the place."



Figure 4. The northward wind speed (negative values, blue on the map, indicate southward flow) at an altitude of 300 mb in the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during July 2011 and July 1980. July of 2011 featured an unusually intense and long-lasting heat wave in the U.S., and the normally weak and irregular waves (like observed during the relatively normal July of 1980) were replaced by a strong and regular wave pattern. Image credit: Vladimir Petoukhov.

Commentary
The new Potsdam Institute paper gives us a mathematical description of exactly how global warming may be triggering observed fundamental changes in large-scale atmospheric flow patterns, resulting in the observed increase in unusually intense and long-lasting periods of extreme weather over the past eleven years. The paper also adds important theoretical support to the research published in 2012 by Dr. Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University, which found that the amplitude of Earth's planetary waves had increased by over 100 miles (161 km) in summer over the past decade in the Northern Hemisphere. Dr. Francis theorized that this change was connected to increased heating of the Arctic relative to the rest of the Earth, due to the observed decline in late spring Northern Hemisphere snow cover. Humans tend to think linearly--one plus one equals two. However, the atmosphere is fundamentally non-linear. What may seem to be modest changes in Earth's climate can trigger unexpected resonances that will amplify into extreme changes--cases where one plus one equals four, or eight, or sixteen. In some cases, when you rock the boat too far, it won't simply roll a bit more, it will reach a tipping point where it suddenly capsizes. Similarly, human-caused global warming is capable of pushing the climate past a tipping point where we enter a new climate regime, one far more disruptive than what we are used to.

Julys and Augusts since 1980 when quasiresonant extreme conditions were observed
The Potsdam Institute's research lists sixteen July and August periods since 1980 that have had extreme atmospheric flow patterns due to quasiresonance. These months featured severe regional heat waves and destructive floods in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, detailed below. Half of these months occurred in the most recent 11-year period, 2002 - 2012. During most of these extreme months, there was not a moderate or strong La Niña or El Niño event contributing to the extremes. Summers when a La Niña or El Niño event was present are listed in parentheses, based on the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI).

July and early August 2012: Catastrophic floods in China and Japan, as well as record-breaking temperatures during heat waves in the United States and southern Europe (weak summer El Niño)

July 2011: Record heat wave in the United States, resulting in the fourth warmest July on record nationally and the driest conditions in the southern United States ever (weak summer La Niña)

July/August 2010: Russian heat wave and the Pakistan flood, with the strongest and most persistent extreme weather conditions and the highest death tolls from heat waves and floods ever for these two regions (strong summer La Niña)

July 2006: Temperatures higher than 100°F for only the second time in Britain’s history and much of Europe experiencing a serious heat wave (weak summer El Niño)

August 2004: Much of northern Europe hit by very low winter-like temperatures and sporadic snowfalls (moderate to strong summer El Niño)

August 2003: European summer 2003 heat wave, causing a highly persistent drought in western Europe (weak summer El Niño)

August 2002: Catastrophic Elbe and Danube floods (strong summer El Niño)

July 2000: Destructive floods in northern Italy and the Tisza basin and a simultaneous heat wave in the southern United States, smashing all-time high-temperature records by that time at many sites (strong summer La Niña)

July/August 1997: Disastrous Great European Flood, which caused several deaths in central Europe, and the destroying floods in Pakistan and western United States (strong summer El Niño)

July 1994: Very strong heat wave in southern Europe, with a national temperature record of 47.2°C set in Spain (weak summer El Niño)

July 1993: Unprecedented great flood in the United States that reigned over the country from April (weak summer El Niño)

July 1989: Unusually intense and unprecedented widespread drought in the United States (weak summer La Niña)

August 1987: Severe drought in the southeastern United States (strong summer El Niño)

August 1984: Continuation of the severe heat of summer 1983, with serious drought in the United States (weak summer La Niña)

July and August 1983: Very dry conditions, severe heat, and substandard crop growth (5–35% below normal) in the Midwest United States (weak summer El Niño)

Links
Petoukhov, V., Rahmstorf, S., Petri, S., Schellnhuber, H. J. (2013), "Quasi-resonant amplification of planetary waves and recent Northern Hemisphere weather extremes" Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, (Early Edition) [doi:10.1073/pnas.1222000110]. No subscription required, but understanding this article requires a graduate-level understanding of the mathematical theory of atmospheric dynamics. Try reading instead this easy-to-read description of the paper by the authors, published at http://theconversation.edu.au.

Press release issued in March 2013 by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), "Weather extremes provoked by trapping of giant waves in the atmosphere."

In this 40-minute lecture presented in 2013 at the University of Arkansas, Dr. Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University explains the linkage between warming in the Arctic due to human-caused global warming and an observed shift in Northern Hemisphere jet stream patterns.

Linking Weird Weather to Rapid Warming of the Arctic, a March 2012 article by Dr. Jennifer Francis in the Yale Environment 360.

Francis, J.A., and S.J.Vavrus, 2012, "Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes", GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 39, L06801, doi:10.1029/2012GL051000, 2012

Jeff Masters

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Quoting yonzabam:


Really? There must be a gap in my education. I thought hot air rose.


Hot air rises, but DRY air sinks. The molar mass of water (18 g/mol) is lower than that of an average molecule of dry air (diatomic nitrogen and oxygen considered, 29 g/mol). A similar contradiction by different processes happens in oceanic circulation patterns - warm oceans upwell, but oceans that experience high evaporation allow denser, saltier water to appear at the surface, causing downwelling.
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nope the winter stuff stays north of DC once again...
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DC might get a wintery mix thurs/friday...........
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

I had alluded to the upside down pattern in an earlier post, but that was referencing the displaced arctic airmass dropping south. As you bring up though, a displaced airmass has to be replaced by something, and that something is bad news for the arctic. The GFS has been showing more of a bread-and-butter Rex Block while the Euro has some differences, but the end result ends up being more or less the same for the higher latitudes: an ice-melting warm air intrusion.



12Z GFS 5-10 day 500 mb height anomalies



12Z ECMWF 5-10 day 500 mb height anomalies

The ECMWF's trend towards the GFS's solution from 00Z to 12Z also significantly increases forecast confidence of such a warm air intrusion to the high latitudes.


The Canadian ensembles agree as well.

Day 5-10 2m Temperature Anomaly:



Day 5-10 500mb Height Anomaly:

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26543
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Would it be wrong to say that vertical instability would be back to normal levels this year (compared to 2011 and 2012) because the upward motion would focus the MJO across the Atlantic and therefore make the basin wetter relative to average?

I'm running out of ideas of why it has been low the past few years.


Maybe, but remember 2010 had an even higher SST anomaly in the MDR both pre-season and during the season than we are likely to see this year, yet vertical instability was below normal over much of the tropical Atlantic during the height of the hurricane season, despite the high ACE year we had.

I was talking to Tom earlier about this. I'm not entirely sure what has been causing low vertical instability since 2010. It could be that despite favorable SSTs, African dust has been at a higher concentration than normal, thus drying out the mid-troposphere and increasing stability. However, I don't know of a dataset that quantifies this, so I don't know how SAL in recent years compares with history.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26543
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Drought wouldn't favor rising air over the USA though, it would favor subsidence and sinking air.


Really? There must be a gap in my education. I thought hot air rose.
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well this latest cold front gave us some real nice soaking in kind of rain which we needed, cooled us off some too, but feels nice outside huh
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi Levi. This means the Tropical Atlantic is warmer than normal right and a horseshoe pattern is developng?


Well just because the SST anomaly difference between the tropical Atlantic and the rest of the tropics is positive doesn't necessarily mean that the tropical Atlantic is warmer than normal. It could be colder than normal, but if the rest of the tropics were even more colder than normal, the difference would still be positive.

But in this case, yes, the positive AMO Atlantic tripole is evident.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26543
Quoting yonzabam:


Well, rising air over the US means sinking air elsewhere. Sinking air = low vertical instability.

I don't know how far east this effect would extend, but tropical storms in the east to mid Atlantic have developed 'normally' the past two years, but failed to ramp up in the western section.

Drought wouldn't favor rising air over the USA though, it would favor subsidence and sinking air.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31327
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yes, for the Gulf of Mexico. But that doesn't explain why it has been so low across the Caribbean and rest of the Atlantic.


Well, rising air over the US means sinking air elsewhere. Sinking air = low vertical instability.

I don't know how far east this effect would extend, but tropical storms in the east to mid Atlantic have developed 'normally' the past two years, but failed to ramp up in the western section.
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Quoting yonzabam:


It's been low because of the US drought.

Yes, for the Gulf of Mexico. But that doesn't explain why it has been so low across the Caribbean and rest of the Atlantic.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31327
Quoting TomTaylor:
On the topic of Dr. Masters' blog (flow patterns favoring extreme weather), models show a massive ridge amplifying across Greenland and into the Arctic over the weekend. Consequently, the AO tanks and a massive swath of 40-50 degree temperature anomalies (nearly 4.5 standard deviations) invades Greenland and the northern Canadian Maritimes region. Ice will be melting fast this spring.


ECMWF 850mb temperature anomaly
(Max Anomaly: 29.3 C or 52.7 F)




GFS 2m Temperature Anomaly
(Max Anomaly: 54.7 F)




GFS 2m Temperature Normalized Anomaly





Arctic Oscillation Crash



I had alluded to the upside down pattern in an earlier post, but that was referencing the displaced arctic airmass dropping south. As you bring up though, a displaced airmass has to be replaced by something, and that something is bad news for the arctic. The GFS has been showing more of a bread-and-butter Rex Block while the Euro has some differences, but the end result ends up being more or less the same for the higher latitudes: an ice-melting warm air intrusion.



12Z GFS 5-10 day 500 mb height anomalies



12Z ECMWF 5-10 day 500 mb height anomalies

The ECMWF's trend towards the GFS's solution from 00Z to 12Z also significantly increases forecast confidence of such a warm air intrusion to the high latitudes.
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600. ARiot
Quoting bappit:
A comment posted on the bunker fuel article:

"Every day we are fooled into thinking that climate change is a problem caused by individuals and solvable by individuals is another day we fail to move towards large-scale, coordinated, societal action."

Keep that in mind the next time someone trolls you with questions about your carbon footprint. Kale with a low carbon footprint anyone?


Those are good points.

Collective action, similar to the Allied effort in WWII would be required.

However, since that period, we have relied on individuals and small groups of people with heft funding to "advance us." Think of it. NASA is small. The military is small. The group who invented the internet, the web and similar technologies is small. Heck even factories and farms involve ever smaller groups of people.

Combine that with 30-40 years of the political drumbeat centered around "the individual" and similar short-term memes.

Shoot man, saying something like "collective action" gets you labeled as some sort of commie.

Crazy times.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Would it be wrong to say that vertical instability would be back to normal levels this year (compared to 2011 and 2012) because the upward motion would focus the MJO across the Atlantic and therefore make the basin wetter relative to average?

I'm running out of ideas of why it has been low the past few years.


It's been low because of the US drought.
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A comment posted on the bunker fuel article:

"Every day we are fooled into thinking that climate change is a problem caused by individuals and solvable by individuals is another day we fail to move towards large-scale, coordinated, societal action."

Keep that in mind the next time someone trolls you with questions about your carbon footprint. Kale with a low carbon footprint anyone?
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5913
Quoting DFWdad:


In the videos KEEPER posted, (I watched them all), it said possibly 2-10 degrees by the end of the century (2100), so grand-kids?

Change will not be fun, it never is.

Personally, I'd like to see a ban on all disposable containers and utensils. THAT would get everyone's attention! I cringe at how much ash is spewed into the atmosphere by cargo ships hauling things we just throw away! (Well in 1st world countries that is!).
Big polluters: one massive container ship equals 50 million cars

Here's a Fun One! Report about our GOV's emissions in 2010

"Fed Carbon Footprint: 121.3 Million Metric Tons; Lion’s Share is DOD"

Report from Environmental Leader.com Link
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Quoting Levi32:
As we monitor pre-hurricane season signals, an important global link is the difference between Atlantic MDR SST anomalies and the rest of the global tropics. This is important because if the rest of the global tropics are cooler relative to normal than the tropical Atlantic (i.e. the difference is positive), then upward motion tends to focus in the Atlantic more than anywhere else in the globe (since it is the warmest relative to normal), which promotes more tropical activity.

I only have 6 days of data on here right now (will eventually accumulate to 90 days), but this graph will track the difference with daily values. Right now it is +0.309°C


Would it be wrong to say that vertical instability would be back to normal levels this year (compared to 2011 and 2012) because the upward motion would focus the MJO across the Atlantic and therefore make the basin wetter relative to average?

I'm running out of ideas of why it has been low the past few years.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 112 Comments: 31327
Perspective

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Quoting Levi32:
As we monitor pre-hurricane season signals, an important global link is the difference between Atlantic MDR SST anomalies and the rest of the global tropics. This is important because if the rest of the global tropics are cooler relative to normal than the tropical Atlantic (i.e. the difference is positive), then upward motion tends to focus in the Atlantic more than anywhere else in the globe (since it is the warmest relative to normal), which promotes more tropical activity.

I only have 6 days of data on here right now (will eventually accumulate to 90 days), but this graph will track the difference with daily values. Right now it is 0.309C



Hi Levi. This means the Tropical Atlantic is warmer than normal right and a horseshoe pattern is developng?
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13927
Quoting Gearsts:
Levi you need to make another video with all this info you throw out on your twitter and here!


I plan on posting on the hurricane season this week, since it is spring break for me.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26543
Quoting Levi32:
As we monitor pre-hurricane season signals, an important global link is the difference between Atlantic MDR SST anomalies and the rest of the global tropics. This is important because if the rest of the global tropics are cooler relative to normal than the tropical Atlantic (i.e. the difference is positive), then upward motion tends to focus in the Atlantic more than anywhere else in the globe (since it is the warmest relative to normal), which promotes more tropical activity.

I only have 6 days of data on here right now (will eventually accumulate to 90 days), but this graph will track the difference with daily values. Right now it is 0.309�C

Levi you need to make another video with all this info you throw out on your twitter and here!
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Quoting Neapolitan:
I agree with most of this--though your timeline is likely off by a full order of magnitude; the drastic changes of which you speak are much closer to 20-30 years away, according to experts. And I don't how old you are, but I myself plan to still be here in that timeframe--and I'm pretty certain my kids will be...


In the videos KEEPER posted, (I watched them all), it said possibly 2-10 degrees by the end of the century (2100), so grand-kids?

Change will not be fun, it never is.

Personally, I'd like to see a ban on all disposable containers and utensils. THAT would get everyone's attention! I cringe at how much ash is spewed into the atmosphere by cargo ships hauling things we just throw away! (Well in 1st world countries that is!).
Big polluters: one massive container ship equals 50 million cars
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
As we monitor pre-hurricane season signals, an important global link is the difference between Atlantic MDR SST anomalies and the rest of the global tropics. This is important because if the rest of the global tropics are cooler relative to normal than the tropical Atlantic (i.e. the difference is positive), then upward motion tends to focus in the Atlantic more than anywhere else in the globe (since it is the warmest relative to normal), which promotes more tropical activity.

I only have 6 days of data on here right now (will eventually accumulate to 90 days), but this graph will track the difference with daily values. Right now it is +0.309°C

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26543
Cold As Ice
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5625
Quoting PedleyCA:


Good video that one. Yes leaving Ice, Ice Baby where it was..... lol

You're cold as ice
You're willing to sacrifice our love
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5809
IN CASE YOU ARE SITTING THERE BORED, OR JUST JOINED IN...CHECK OUT MY BLOG REGARDING THE 2013 HURRICANE SEASON..IF YOU HAVEN'T DONE SO

2013 HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK

don't hesitate to leave a comment or thumbs up.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14870
still raining...look at the snow at the upper left
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14870
585. VR46L
Quoting PedleyCA:


Good video that one. Yes leaving Ice, Ice Baby where it was..... lol


I like alot of Bowies stuff actually prefer him to Queen ! Vanilla Ice ...Not to my taste
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6803
Quoting LargoFl:
I do think we all can agree that a lifestyle change IS coming for humans, it may take 200-300 years from now but a drastic change in the way we live IS coming..what we take for granted today may be a luxury item in the future..maybe even not to be had..clean water, food,an energy source for ALL people etc...for me im glad i wont be around because i like what we have now..the future doesnt look as bright anymore,not as it did in the past..something has changed.
I agree with most of this--though your timeline is likely off by a full order of magnitude; the drastic changes of which you speak are much closer to 20-30 years away, according to experts. And I don't how old you are, but I myself plan to still be here in that timeframe--and I'm pretty certain my kids will be...
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Quoting VR46L:


You are gonna need Ice ,Ice .... Dont dig that song out ... Its bad !!IMO Only thing good about it is that it nicked the sample from Queen & Bowie - 'Under Pressure'


Good video that one. Yes leaving Ice, Ice Baby where it was..... lol
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5625
Here in Puerto Rico we are also in a dry period as the rainfall so far in 2013 is over 2 inches below normal. And it looks like the dry weather will continue for the next few days.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
318 PM AST TUE MAR 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH THU THEN FLATTEN
OVER THE WEEKEND AS POLAR TROUGH ACROSS ERN NOAM MOVES INTO THE ATLC.
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THEN DEAMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ZONAL
FLOW EXPECTED TO DOMINATE.


&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK UNDER A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. CONDITIONS BECOME
MORE UNSTABLE EARLY NEXT WEEK POLAR TROUGH ERODES THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HOWEVER MOISTURE RETURN
IS NOT SUFFICIENT FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLD SHOWERS. WINDS
ALSO STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DECENT HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH
OF THE AREA AND TIGHTENS THE PRES GRADIENT. OVERALL...DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE
NEXT 30 HOURS. AT THE SFC...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15
KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING AFTER
13/03Z.


&&

.MARINE...NNE SWELLS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS. OVER THE WEEKEND A NEW GROUP OF NORTH SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO
ARRIVE INTO THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS. OVERALL...HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE FIVE-DAY FCST PERIOD.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...COMBINATION OF EXTREMELY DRY FUELS AND VERY LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER VERY HIGH OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. OVER
THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AS POLAR TROUGH
WEAKENS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND TEMPERATURES WARM UP
GRADUALLY. MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS PRETTY WEAK AND NOT LIKELY TO
SUPPORT ANY PRECIP EXCEPT FOR MORE CLOUDS OVER MOUNTAIN AREAS.
WINDS ALSO STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NEW AREA OF HIGH PRES
BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA. ALL WEATHER FACTORS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE OF SIGNIFICANT FIRE ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 82 74 80 / 0 0 0 0
STT 74 83 74 83 / 0 0 0 0
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 13927
581. VR46L
Quoting PedleyCA:



I know and my water cooler needs parts before I can use it again.


You are gonna need Ice ,Ice .... Dont dig that song out ... Its bad !!IMO Only thing good about it is that it nicked the sample from Queen & Bowie - 'Under Pressure'
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6803
Quoting VR46L:


Good For you ! They look real professional compared to tracks imposed on NWS OR NHC map . Nice !! Do you have ones for the cane season too?


yes I do...I made a blog about it long ago.

I have some others that are not in there btw... only when the time comes, also for tornadoes
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14870
On the topic of Dr. Masters' blog (flow patterns favoring extreme weather), models show a massive ridge amplifying across Greenland and into the Arctic over the weekend. Consequently, the AO tanks and a massive swath of 40-50 degree temperature anomalies (nearly 4.5 standard deviations) invades Greenland and the northern Canadian Maritimes region. Ice will be melting fast this spring.


ECMWF 850mb temperature anomaly
(Max Anomaly: 29.3 C or 52.7 F)




GFS 2m Temperature Anomaly
(Max Anomaly: 54.7 F)




GFS 2m Temperature Normalized Anomaly





Arctic Oscillation Crash


Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 19 Comments: 4357
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Quoting VR46L:


That is hot hot hot ...and its only March !!



I know and my water cooler needs parts before I can use it again.
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5625
576. VR46L
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


thanks, that's one of my new ones...


Good For you ! They look real professional compared to tracks imposed on NWS OR NHC map . Nice !! Do you have ones for the cane season too?
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6803
Rancho Palos Verdes

Small earth quake off shore at Rancho Palos Verdes, Calif

Only 10 Earthquakes over 2.5 in this area in the last 7 days.
WU still isn't showing yesterdays shocks over 2.5. May well be
out of the range they consider local....

Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5625
574. VR46L
Quoting PedleyCA:


Is happening really slowly and has so far under performed the projections.
85 for today and it may not make it if yesterdays number was just under by
a degree in Riverside and 3 degrees here. We will see. I like it on the cooler side but this isn't bad. Humidity is decent at 34% and should fall some.....


That is hot hot hot ...and its only March !!
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6803
Quoting VR46L:


Nice graphics !!!


thanks, that's one of my new ones...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14870
572. VR46L
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
.


Nice graphics !!!
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6803


Is happening really slowly and has so far under performed the projections.
85 for today and it may not make it if yesterdays number was just under by
a degree in Riverside and 3 degrees here. We will see. I like it on the cooler side but this isn't bad. Humidity is decent at 34% and should fall some.....
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5625
new ecmwf/gfs stay way north w trough in 1 week....no severe wx
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Heavy rain continues for us, some snow for Buffalo...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14870
Good entry by Dr. Masters. Look, a real scientific paper, no hand-waving, actual mathematics. The abstract had me salivating with the mention of "midlatitude waveguides" so I just had to peek. If my head wasn't hurting from calibrating my new water quality meter I would dig right in. Hope this topic lasts today ...fascinating stuff.
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Quoting VR46L:


Yep Heard they couldn't decide .. I dare say it will happen a few times ...as there is no clear candidate


I agree.
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only a few days then you cool slowly after sunday

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 168 Comments: 53285
565. VR46L
Quoting barbamz:

A little contribution to AGW unfortunately came from my church this evening, lol: black smoke emitted from the Sistina in the Vatican, and really lots of it, just to make the statement clear.


Yep Heard they couldn't decide .. I dare say it will happen a few times ...as there is no clear candidate
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6803
looks a little warm ped

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 168 Comments: 53285

A little contribution to AGW unfortunately came from my church this evening, lol: black smoke emitted from the Sistina in the Vatican, and really lots of it, just to make the statement clear.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.