Chicago snowstorm headed toward the Mid-Atlantic
The snow has begun in Chicago, as what promises to be their biggest snowstorm of the season moves through. The fast-moving "Alberta Clipper" has already brought up to 10" of snow to Minnesota and North Dakota. These type of storms, so-named because they originate in Alberta and clip along at a fast forward speed, typically bring the Midwest moderate amounts of fluffy snow that is relatively easy to shovel. However, this Clipper is traversing through an atmosphere that is warmer than usual for these types of storms--close to the freezing point near the surface. Since warm air can hold more moisture, this Clipper is bringing heavier snowfall amounts than is usual for a Clipper, with 4 - 8" of snow expected in Chicago. The storm, dubbed Winter Storm Saturn by The Weather Channel and "Snowquester" by The Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang, is expected to bring a swath of 4 - 8" of snow into the Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday, with the heaviest snows in excess of a foot falling in Western Virginia and eastern West Virginia. The models are still in considerable disagreement on what will happen to the storm on Wednesday, both in regards to the track and the location of the rain/snow line. I still prefer the European model's solution of a colder and more southwards-moving storm, which would likely bring Washington D.C. 4 - 8" of snow, their biggest snowstorm since January 26, 2011. There will be a sharp gradient in snowfall amounts in the region, though, due to the fact the rain/snow line will be in the area. We cannot rule out the solution provided by NOAA's SREF model, which calls for snowfall amounts closer to 15" in D.C. The Capital Weather Gang has an interesting article on historical March snowstorms in Washington D.C. In order for Snowquester/Winter Storm Saturn to crack the top-ten, it would have to dump at least 6.6" of snow on the nation's capital. The New England coast from Long Island to Southeast Massachusetts could also see heavy snows in excess of 6", though the uncertainty in snow amounts is high. There will be a very sharp gradient in the precipitation amounts, and the storm's track may keep the heaviest snows just offshore.
Figure 1. Predicted snowfall amounts from Winter Storm Saturn (AKA Snowquester) from the NWS. There is a sharp gradient in snowfall amounts near the coast, due to some of the precipitation falling as rain.
Coastal flooding a concern in the Mid-Atlantic and New England
As the storm moves off the coast on Wednesday night, winds gusting to 55 mph will build waves of up to 15' and a 2 - 4' storm surge along the coast to the north of the center, along the coasts of Delaware, New Jersey, and New York. Heavy rains will bring runoff down rivers that will act to increase water levels along the coast. The latest Forecast Discussion from the Mount Holly, NJ NWS office highlights the likelihood of moderate coastal flooding in Delaware during the high tide cycles on Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning. The latest storm surge forecast from the GFS model calls for a storm surge of around 3' at Lewes, Delaware on Thursday morning, though the peak surge is currently forecast to hit at low tide, which would not bring top-ten highest water level on record to the coast. Still, even moderate flooding would cause much greater erosion than usual, due to weakened state of the dunes from the pounding Hurricane Sandy gave to the coast in October. Sandy brought the 3rd highest water level on record to Lewes. Moderate flooding is also expected along large portions of the New England coast, from New York City to Boston. Should the more northerly track of the GFS and NAM models verify, Southeast Massachusetts could be looking at a dangerous coastal flooding event with impacts far worse than experienced during Winter Storm Nemo on February 9.
We'll have ongoing coverage this week of Winter Storm Saturn in our Winter Storm Section.
Jeff Masters
By Bayview Park Westside of Sturgeon Bay
Reader Comments
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Tried to drive my car but got stuck right outside the parking lot. Two guys spent 10 minutes helping me get back. Checked the computer and found out that even the buses are stopped and police are recommending that even people with 4x4s don't drive. Even the rescue service is getting its vehicles stuck. The bus service is providing stranded passengers with meals. Cars are stuck all over the place.
If it's like this in the capital, I can't imagine out in the countryside, especially in the north.
Here's a satellite view of Iceland today:
The past couple days it's been cold and windy, gale force gusts. Was knocking my car all over the place when I went to check out a property in the countryside, and I could hardly take pictures because exposed skin became numb so fast. It was more the wind than the cold that was the problem.
Hey RitaEvac,
Mexico , since I can remember, takes advantage of our generous nature at every turn it can..
There are also an ongoing "friendly fire" against us across the border because of Mexico's inability to govern itself..
The drug trade buys off some military types and soldiers..
I bet Mexico will never come up with the back-water they owe us..
Why should they?
We don't have the guts to back up any threat on them as they are supposed to be a "friendly"..
Looks like Texans get screwed again..
OK, I will stop complaining now :)) I can't beat that!
As the water supply runs out, I tend to come off with my smarta$$ remark such as "just worry about your guns and oil folks"
396.80 ppm
I've gotten no accumulation and I dunno when it's gonna start snowing, I want at least 6 inches of snow..
where is ur location?
Pasadena MD
Hi, Karen, thanks for the impressive pics! Remember our talk about food problems some days ago? This about Iceland has been on German news today (a bit late), lol:
March 1, 2013, 2:28 PM: Horse-Meat Testing Finds Something Even Worse: No Meat
it was a joke..he is pretty much known lately to bust forecasts sometimes by just showing up..not back in 2007..
ohh ok, thats a little while away from me... ur right around the rain/snow line right?
Yeah.
Morning Doppler! :-) Does anyone know where I can find the models for Winter Storm Saturn?
Being from the Outer Banks I’m use to nor’easters and this, as of now, does not look like one. It looks like a simple low pressure.
Look down and to the left your shirt is turning red.
Don't worry though you can always soak it up
with your welfare check or your food stamps.
I know it was a joke...just stating my experience with meeting him...
NWS Sterling has backed off on amounts just a little for DC, now showing 6-8".
Bleh.
4-6 inches.
Haha, yeah. Which here is way worse than horsemeat. People here eat horse. :)
Haha, when you were writing, I was thinking about adding, "But then it can all disappear after a couple hours!" only to see that you wrote that too ;) Yeah, the weather here sure is something else. Despite the sometimes hostile environment (or perhaps in part because of it), Iceland sure has a way of making itself feel like "home", doesn't it? I can't imagine living anywhere else again.
Easter is coming. I look forward to my stepkids' reaction when I give them a Páskaegg. :)
Good Morning KarenRei..
Dr. Masters has a new blog.. :) POST 570
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