Winter storm to spread heavy snow from North Dakota to Virginia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:44 PM GMT on March 04, 2013

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The flakes are flying in Minnesota and North Dakota, where up to 10" of snow has fallen from an "Alberta Clipper" that is barreling southeastwards across the U.S. These type of storms, so-named because they originate in Alberta and clip along at a fast forward speed, typically bring the Midwest moderate amounts of fluffy snow that is relatively easy to shovel. The storm, dubbed Winter Storm Saturn by The Weather Channel and "Snowquester" by The Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang, is expected to bring a swath of 6 - 10" of snow from Minnesota to Virginia Monday through Wednesday, with Chicago expected to get 6 - 9", their biggest snow of the season. Once the storm moves off the coast on Wednesday, its strong winds will make coastal flooding a major concern for the Mid-Atlantic coast, particularly Delaware, on Wednesday and Thursday. The computer models are still showing quite a bit of disagreement on what the storm might do on Wednesday. The European model has been the most consistent model, and maintains that the storm will not bring heavy snow to New England. I would lean towards this solution at present. However, keep in mind that the latest run of the GFS model shows a more northerly track, with heavy snow falling along a swath of coast from Long Island, NY, to Boston, MA, Wednesday through Thursday. The exact position of the rain/snow boundary along the Mid-Atlantic coast is also quite uncertain. Washington D.C. could end up with mostly rain, and just 1 - 2" of snow, or get a 6+ inch dumping, picking up more snow from one storm than from the all the snowstorms from the past two winters, combined:

Reagan Nat'l Airport (DCA):
- Snowfall this season-to-date:  1.5"
- Snowfall all last season:  2"
- Last 5"+ snow event:  Jan. 26, 2011 (5")
- Last 10"+ snow event:  Feb. 9-10, 2010 (10.8")

Dulles Airport, Virginia (IAD)
- Snowfall this season-to-date:  5.3"
- Snowfall all last season:  3.7"
- Last 5"+ snow event:  Jan. 26, 2011 (7.3")
- Last 10"+ snow event:  Feb. 9-10, 2010 (9.3")

(Thanks go to Jonathan Erdman of TWC for these stats.) The Capital Weather Gang has an interesting article on historical March snowstorms in Washington D.C. In order for Winter Storm Saturn to crack the top-ten, it would have to dump at least 6.6" of snow on the nation's capital.



Coastal flooding a concern in the Mid-Atlantic
As the storm moves off the coast on Wednesday night, winds gusting to 50 mph will build waves of up to 15' and a 3 - 4' storm surge along the coast to the north of the center. Heavy rains will bring runoff down rivers that will act to increase water levels along the coast. The latest Forecast Discussion from the Mount Holly, NJ NWS office highlights the likelihood of at least moderate coastal flooding in Delaware during the high tide cycles on Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning, with the possibility of major flooding. The latest storm surge forecast from the GFS model calls for a storm surge of around 3' at Lewes, Delaware on Thursday morning, which would bring the 8th highest water level on record to the coast. This is of concern due to the damage Hurricane Sandy brought in October, which weakened the dunes and left the coast more vulnerable to erosion. Sandy brought the 3rd highest water level on record to Lewes.

We'll have ongoing coverage this week of Winter Storm Saturn in our Winter Storm Section.

Jeff Masters

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516. ScottLincoln
4:30 PM GMT on March 05, 2013
Quoting Chucktown:


Spring will never come earlier, the equinox will never change. Anyway, that article is just another climate change talking head paid to "follow the lemmings".


It appears like you didn't read the first couple sentences of the article. The article was discussing biological spring, which is different from meteorological spring and astronomical spring. If climate were to change such that the environmental conditions required for spring blooming occurred earlier, then yes, biological spring would change.

Quoting Chucktown:
Also, Bastardi found this info on tree ring data and how there has been no big change to the climate for quite a while.
Link
Go ahead Nea, spin it.

So, let me get this right. You are trusting proxy data for one location in China over the current estimates for global temperature that cover the globe? It seems like you have a very different understanding of how certain sources of scientific data are ranked... at least compared to climate scientists.
There isn't much spin to it... someone found a graph on the internet and is like "oh look what I found! this disproves everything!" and just like clockwork gullible people fall for it without any shred of scientific skepticism.

What you have done is provide a red herring. A distraction. Of course actual climate scientists are using satellite data and land-based thermometers to estimate global temperature for the modern period. Such data is more globally-representative than one area of China, and is a much better corollary to temperature than tree growth patterns.
Member Since: September 28, 2002 Posts: 5 Comments: 3192
515. Chucktown
4:06 PM GMT on March 05, 2013
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just checked soil temperatures...30-40F across all of Virginia and Maryland, with D.C. on the edge of the freezing soil temperature line.

No issues regarding warm ground temperatures interfering with accumulations.


The biggest issue that will limit accumulations will be the higher sun angle now that is is March. Even though the sky will be overcast, still there will be some boundary layer warming from the sun. For the snow lovers up there, the heavier bursts of snow will temporarily offset the insolation. This is why so many forecasters are having issues with total snowfall. Plus, a decent amount of precip will be "sacrificed" to cool the column, especially around the metro areas. This is why the highest snow totals will be found in areas with some elevation and away from the cities. Still, the greatest accumulations will occur tomorrow night.
Member Since: August 27, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1760
514. goosegirl1
4:03 PM GMT on March 05, 2013
Yikes! The local market is already sold out of milk :)


THROUGH TODAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THIS REGION DURING TUESDAY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW...WITH AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW...WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT AROUND THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA
BORDER AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...UPWARDS OF 4 TO 9
INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM PORTIONS OF THE UPPER AND
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 18 INCHES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST
VIRGINIA. CLOSER TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE.
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1228
513. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:03 PM GMT on March 05, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
512. GeorgiaStormz
4:02 PM GMT on March 05, 2013
STP is increasing across MS/AL
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9727
511. GeorgiaStormz
4:00 PM GMT on March 05, 2013
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9727
510. Grothar
3:56 PM GMT on March 05, 2013
Issued by The National Weather Service
Baltimore/Washington, MD
Tue, Mar 5, 2013, 9:23 AMEST
Local Radar Map
Updated Mar 5, 2013, 10:50am EST
Weather in Motion® | Enlarge Map
Get WeatherReady

Prepare for Winter Storms
Keep Safe During the Storm
Driving in Snow & Ice
Are You at Risk For Winter Storms?
Get Live Traffic Reports

... WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* PRECIPITATION TYPE... SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS... 5 OR MORE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

* TIMING... RAIN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING... POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES... IN THE MID 30S.

* WINDS... NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* IMPACTS... HEAVY WET SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES AND DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26117
509. trHUrrIXC5MMX
3:55 PM GMT on March 05, 2013
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
508. trHUrrIXC5MMX
3:45 PM GMT on March 05, 2013
Chicago is ready...bring on the snow!

284 snow plows, 26 smaller four-wheel drive plows to clear side streets.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
507. Chicklit
3:42 PM GMT on March 05, 2013
Would definitely avoid driving in that area tonight and tomorrow through Thursday TAX13.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11317
506. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:41 PM GMT on March 05, 2013
Just checked soil temperatures...30-40F across all of Virginia and Maryland, with D.C. on the edge of the freezing soil temperature line.

No issues regarding warm ground temperatures interfering with accumulations.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32001
505. GeorgiaStormz
3:38 PM GMT on March 05, 2013
GFS shows a potentially destructive squall line in 1 week. wicked jet stream and llj, and great forcing.

Im not buying the GFS trough representation though..we'll see.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 9727
504. trHUrrIXC5MMX
3:35 PM GMT on March 05, 2013
Quoting VR46L:



Have you looked around the site there is some really great stuff in it ...Its a good one to play around with .

I think its the best college based weather site IMO and if I was young like yourself it would be a school I would be considering , with the quailty of website it must be one of the best places to study weather.


yes I have gone there..its very cool

Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
503. Chicklit
3:32 PM GMT on March 05, 2013
First rain, then snow, then melt...
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
930 AM EST TUE MAR 5 2013

DCZ001-VAZ054-051800-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH
930 AM EST TUE MAR 5 2013
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...
.REST OF TODAY...SUNNY LATE THIS MORNING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. NORTH WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.

.TONIGHT...RAIN AND SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...INCREASING TO 15 TO
20 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.

.WEDNESDAY...SNOW AND RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT
...CLOUDY...SNOW...MAINLY IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTH WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT.

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN PARTLY SUNNY IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS AROUND 40.
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.
.FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
.SATURDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S.
.MONDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S.
$$

Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11317
502. VR46L
3:31 PM GMT on March 05, 2013
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


like I said before..I love that radar image, then can even tilt it sideways, cool



Have you looked around the site there is some really great stuff in it ...Its a good one to play around with .

I think its the best college based weather site IMO and if I was young like yourself it would be a school I would be considering , with the quailty of website it must be one of the best places to study weather.
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6898
501. trHUrrIXC5MMX
3:30 PM GMT on March 05, 2013
here is my forecast from last night

Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
500. Chicklit
3:28 PM GMT on March 05, 2013
Morning, folks.
LinkBaltimore MD/Washington DC
Under winter storm watch.
Warning to follow.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11317
499. ILwthrfan
3:27 PM GMT on March 05, 2013
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Snowfall totals are much too beefy on the south side of that forecast.
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1519
498. washingtonian115
3:25 PM GMT on March 05, 2013
Quoting WxGeekVA:


They're wrong.
Sorry I met to say the nam model but he stick'in phone did a correction check.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16968
497. txjac
3:25 PM GMT on March 05, 2013
Quoting LargoFl:


What does the red area "PL" stand for? TIA
Member Since: April 24, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 2512
496. trHUrrIXC5MMX
3:25 PM GMT on March 05, 2013
Meanwhile, The California Sierra Nevada is up for some big snow as well..

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 10 PM PST WEDNESDAY ABOVE 4000 FEET...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SACRAMENTO HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING ABOVE 4000 FEET FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 10 PM PST WEDNESDAY.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 10 TO 20 INCHES WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO
THREE FEET POSSIBLE
AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE DOWN TO 3000 FT ON
WEDNESDAY.

* ELEVATION: ABOVE 4000 FEET. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AROUND
5000 TO 6500 FT TODAY AND DROP DOWN TO AROUND 3000 TO 4000 FT ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
495. ILwthrfan
3:24 PM GMT on March 05, 2013
sigh Once again I'm being mocked by the weather gods. What went through me earlier was just virga. The only chance I will get at any snow will be if the trowel drops southward any. I doubt I will get anything at all from this. Last night they had us 3-5", I'll probably be lucky to get an inch, considering it's March 5th, sun angle, daytime, and temp is 35 degrees. Just too many negatives, all the moisture is well north of me as well.



Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1519
494. LargoFl
3:24 PM GMT on March 05, 2013
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38423
493. WxGeekVA
3:23 PM GMT on March 05, 2013
Quoting washingtonian115:
What is the latest name wxgeekva?.The mets on fox 5 weren't looking to favourable on that one.


They're wrong.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3471
492. vamm
3:22 PM GMT on March 05, 2013
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


that is more like it!! I see some 14-18" there. Those reds could cover DC later


I'm in the 14-18" area, with the forecast saying 10-18". It's only been going up in the past few days. For once this year, the mountains are not blocking the snow.
Member Since: March 8, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
491. trHUrrIXC5MMX
3:22 PM GMT on March 05, 2013
Quoting VR46L:
Loop embedded



like I said before..I love that radar image, then can even tilt it sideways, cool
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
490. washingtonian115
3:21 PM GMT on March 05, 2013
What is the latest nam wxgeekva?.The mets on fox 5 weren't looking to favourable on that one.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16968
489. LargoFl
3:20 PM GMT on March 05, 2013
Snipped this for the DC/baltimore area..........NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT THAT AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL
BE FALLING ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE HEAVIER BANDS ALL THE WAY
INTO THE EARLY MRNG HRS THU...JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND DISSIPATING
FROM THERE. THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED
EARLIER IN THE EVE ACROSS THE REGION - W/ A POSSIBLE 6-10 INCHES
ACROSS THE VA/MD PIEDMONT W OF I-95...A QUICK COUPLE-FEW INCHES FROM
THE SRN MD COAST TO THE DC AND BALT AREAS.

NEARLY ALL THIS TIME...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE AFFECTING THE
AREA - WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AS IT STRENGTHENS...REDUCING
VISIBILITIES AND DROPPING WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL ALSO BE ADVERSE FOR
DRIVING AND FOR TREES/POWERLINES. WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES COULD
RESULT FROM TREE BRANCHES SNAPPING UNDER THE HEAVY-WET SNOW AND
GUSTY WINDS. MODELS QPFS CONTINUE TO SHOW BETWEEN AN 1.0-1.5 INCHES
OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA. SNOWFALL RATIOS WILL LIKELY BE BETWEEN 7-8:1
FURTHER SOUTH AND 10:1 FURTHER WEST AND NORTH.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FLOODING THREAT FROM THESE
HIGHER QPF AREAS...ESPECIALLY POST-EVENT AS RUNOFF AND QUICK MELTING
COULD CREATE RIVER FLOODING IN THE DAYS
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38423
488. trHUrrIXC5MMX
3:19 PM GMT on March 05, 2013
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
487. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:19 PM GMT on March 05, 2013
Nevermind. Daniel tells me to post something then posts it himself. :|
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32001
486. washingtonian115
3:17 PM GMT on March 05, 2013
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


wow...!

never mind my last sentence then.
Yes.I didn't really get to see the back yard fully until late feb when the snow melted.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16968
485. trHUrrIXC5MMX
3:16 PM GMT on March 05, 2013
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Oh BTW NWS Sterling says over 6" for Wash and I'm on the edge of 10"-14"



that is more like it!! I see some 14-18" there. Those reds could cover DC later
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
484. barbamz
3:16 PM GMT on March 05, 2013
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


hallo friend!


Guten Tag, Max. I see your German is improving dramatically, lol.

Snow live stream cam in Chicago:

http://www.earthcam.com/usa/illinois/chicago/fiel d/

And somewhere in central Minnesota:

http://www.brendans-island.com/smalltownamerica/
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 54 Comments: 5930
483. WxGeekVA
3:15 PM GMT on March 05, 2013
Oh BTW NWS Sterling says over 6" for Wash and I'm on the edge of 10"-14"

Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3471
482. trHUrrIXC5MMX
3:14 PM GMT on March 05, 2013
Quoting washingtonian115:
No!.I mean 5 feet.The first storm dumped 31.1 inches in my neighboorhood then the second dumped a foot and a half.Donw by the water they never get as much snow as we do in the north west neighboorhoods.We made the best out of the shovelling.


wow...!

never mind my last sentence then.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
481. LargoFl
3:14 PM GMT on March 05, 2013
Here is what they think for NYC area...........AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1001 AM EST TUE MAR 5 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY AND REMAINS INTO
THIS EVENING...AND WEAKENS LATE TONIGHT. A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE NORTHEAST DURING THE MID WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE SKY COVER...HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND HOURLY DEW POINTS.
HIGHS AND LOW TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE A BLEND OF THE WARMER MAV AND
ECMWF GUIDANCE.

WIND GUSTS THIS MORNING WILL SUBSIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH BETWEEN
DEPARTING LOW SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.

APPROACHING STORM WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY THIS
EVENING. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE AND
LIMITED LIFT FOR ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL TOWARD MORNING WEDNESDAY
AS SURFACE RIDGE REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION. WILL ONLY HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS TOWARD MORNING AS LIFT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE LOW. WILL
SEE A CHANCE OF SNOW INLAND AND RAIN...MAYBE RAIN AND SNOW AT THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COMPLEXITY WITH THE FORECAST WED INTO THURS ON HANDLING PCPN TYPE
AND AMOUNTS. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW DEEPENING OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION AND PUSHING OFFSHORE BY MID DAY WED. HOWEVER...THERE
IS STILL DIVERGING SOLUTIONS ON THE EXACT PATH OF THE LOW AND HOW
FAR IT PUSHES NORTH AS WELL AS THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE
ACCOMPANYING CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE DEPARTING VORT MAX OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC SEEMS LESS OF AN ISSUE WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...WITH
THE CLOSED LOW NOW A BIT SLOWER IN APPROACHING THE NORTHEAST. 00Z
NAM HAS THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST PCPN AMTS FOR THE TRI-STATE
REGION WITH THE BLOCKING HIGH STILL KEEPING THE ECMWF A BIT TO THE SOUTH.
OVERALL THOUGH...SOLUTIONS ARE EDGING FURTHER TO THE NORTH...WITH
PCPN LIKELY NOW ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL THE CWA.

MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD EVOLVE AROUND WINDS...PCPN AMTS...AND
COASTAL FLOODING THREATS. PLEASE REFER TO THE COASTAL FLOODING
SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION.

WINDS...EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES DURING THE DAY WED WITH LLJ SETTING
UP ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION. WINDS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KTS EXPECTED
BY 00Z THURS...WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z AS THE
WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH. 00Z NAM A BIT STRONGER WITH THE
WINDS...PRODUCING 70 KTS...WITH THE OTHER MODELS REMAINING SLIGHTLY
WEAKER BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KTS. HOWEVER...AS THE PROFILE BECOMES NEAR
ISOTHERMAL OVERNIGHT...THE STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS MAY HAVE TROUBLE
REACHING THE SURFACE...SO HAVE GONE WITH THE WEAKER...YET STILL
STRONG SOLUTION...BLENDING THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC. WIND ADVISORIES
LOOK LIKELY FOR WED NIGHT INTO THURS ACROSS EASTERN LONG
ISLAND...AND COASTAL CT...WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE NYC METRO
AREA AND TO THE NORTH AND WEST. THERE IS ALSO A CHC THAT HIGH WIND
WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE MET...MAINLY EASTERN LI AND SE CORNER OF
CT. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE WIND STRENGTHS...HAVE HELD
OFF FROM ANY ISSUANCE OF PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THE STRONG
WINDS TO LAST INTO THURS...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
BY THURS NIGHT.

PCPN AMTS...LATEST MODEL RUNS HOLD OFF ON BRINGING THE PCPN IN TILL WED
AFTN...SO HAVE LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT CHC FOR WED MORNING...WITH ANY
PCPN OCCURRING THIS TIME BEING LIGHT IN NATURE...AND GENERALLY RAIN
AT THE COAST AND SNOW INLAND. UNFORTUNATELY...THE CONSISTENCY OF THE
MODELS DOESN/T PERSIST INTO WED NIGHT...WITH A GREAT SPREAD ON QPF
TOTALS FROM 00Z THURS BASICALLY UNTIL 00Z FRI. BECAUSE OF THE
INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE MODELS...CHOSE TO NOT DEVIATE TOO FAR FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND WENT WITH A HPC/ECMWF/PREVIOUS FORECAST
BLEND. THIS KEEPS THE HIGHEST AMTS OVER EASTERN LI/SE CT AND THE
LOWEST AMTS OVER INTERIOR HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. ONE THING THE MODELS
CAN AGREE UPON IS THE HEAVIEST PCPN WILL OCCUR AFTER 00Z THURS.

PCPN TYPE...WITH HIGH TEMPS PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 40S
WED...BASICALLY EXPECTING LIGHT RAIN...WITH SOME SNOW MIXING IN OVER
INTERIOR REGIONS DURING THE DAY WED. STILL EXPECTING A CHANGEOVER TO
ALL SNOW WED EVENING OVER INTERIOR REGIONS...WITH THE RAIN/SNOW LINE
THEN SLOWLY PUSHING TO THE COAST OVERNIGHT...AND ALL AREAS HAVING A
PERIOD OF ALL SNOW BY EARLY THURS MORNING. WITH THE PCPN
ONGOING...CHOSE TO SIDE CLOSER TO WET BULB TEMPS...WHICH HELPED
BRING TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES. DESPITE THE LOWERING...THE
HEAVIEST PCPN LOOKS TO CORRESPOND MORE IN WITH THE TIMING OF THE
RAIN...MINIMIZING SNOWFALL TOTALS AT THIS TIME. IF THE TEMPS CAN
COOL AT A QUICKER RATE...OR IF THE HEAVIEST PCPN DELAYS 3-4
HOURS...WE COULD SEE MUCH HIGHER SF AMTS. AT THIS TIME...AM
GENERALLY THINKING 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THERMAL PROFILES DO
INDICATE WE SHOULD EXPECT A RAIN/SNOW EVENT...WITH A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY OF SLEET MIXING IN. DID ADJUST TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE
DEGREES ON THURSDAY AS WELL...WITH THE PCPN LINGERING LONGER. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANY SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURS MORNING...BUT
A TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN IS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z ACROSS MOST AREAS.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38423
480. washingtonian115
3:13 PM GMT on March 05, 2013
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


huh. 60" or 5' get to my neck... wow. How did the shoveling go?

I know you mean 5 inches
No!.I mean 5 feet.The first storm dumped 31.1 inches in my neighboorhood then the second dumped a foot and a half.Donw by the water they never get as much snow as we do in the north west neighboorhoods.We made the best out of the shovelling.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16968
479. trHUrrIXC5MMX
3:13 PM GMT on March 05, 2013
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Any met saying less than 6-10" in DC, especially after the 12Z NAM needs to lose their job. Seriously, these clowns on TV are so wrong it's not even funny.


yes, I don't know why they are saying that (one of them calling for 2" ?!), just so unprofessional
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
478. WxGeekVA
3:11 PM GMT on March 05, 2013
Any met saying less than 6-10" in DC, especially after the 12Z NAM needs to lose their job. Seriously, these clowns on TV are so wrong it's not even funny.
Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3471
477. trHUrrIXC5MMX
3:10 PM GMT on March 05, 2013
Quoting washingtonian115:
I didnt really complain when the blizzards in February 2012 dumped 5 feet of snow combined,and I was outside shovelling in it.


huh. 60" or 5' get to my neck... wow. How did the shoveling go?

I know you mean 5 inches
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
476. washingtonian115
3:07 PM GMT on March 05, 2013
Quoting robintampabay:


I hope you get 2 feet of snow, but then you would complain it is to much snow!
I didnt really complain when the blizzards in February 2010 dumped 5 feet of snow combined,and I was outside shovelling in it.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16968
475. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:05 PM GMT on March 05, 2013
Quoting VAweathernoob:
Hey Guys, I know this is more a tropics place, and some people from DC were already on earlier this morning......but we are having some major trouble planning some critical work projects tomorrow in northern VA. We've got local mets conflicting saying anything from 2 inches to 18 inches. Can I get a little expertise from someone here about what the newest data says?

People saying anything less than 4" (being VERY conservative) are uninformed by this point. There will be a snow/rain line, but it won't be anywhere near Washington for most of the event. More start off sleet it will quickly switch to heavy, wet snow.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32001
474. trHUrrIXC5MMX
3:04 PM GMT on March 05, 2013
Quoting VAweathernoob:


Ha exactly! People can't get a forecast together and it's less than 24 hrs out.


well in NYC, where I live, it's a though forecast. The GFS/NAM call for big snow here but not the most reliable Euro.

the GFS and Nam could be wrong... In not sure
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
473. LargoFl
3:04 PM GMT on March 05, 2013
stay safe texas, watch those fires..................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38423
472. LargoFl
3:01 PM GMT on March 05, 2013
Hope this nor-easter stays off the coast huh.....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38423
471. trHUrrIXC5MMX
3:00 PM GMT on March 05, 2013
Quoting barbamz:

From March, 1. In case, it hasn't been posted yet ;-)


hallo friend!
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
470. robintampabay
3:00 PM GMT on March 05, 2013
Quoting washingtonian115:
See and people looked at me like I was crazy.Now I have proof!.


I hope you get 2 feet of snow, but then you would complain it is to much snow!
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 157
469. LargoFl
3:00 PM GMT on March 05, 2013
7-day for Tampa Bay area...............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 38423
468. VAweathernoob
2:58 PM GMT on March 05, 2013
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
someone says this on twitter

this is NOT going to be a big snow for NYC. boundary layer in NYC are super warm with large East flow. Friends in NWS in NYC seem to concur


5 mins after, this

It is great to have Colleagues. I can see how NYC does get 6" last tweet premature.

get your mind straight


Ha exactly! People can't get a forecast together and it's less than 24 hrs out.
Member Since: August 6, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 26
467. barbamz
2:58 PM GMT on March 05, 2013

From March, 1. In case it hasn't been posted yet ;-)
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 54 Comments: 5930
466. trHUrrIXC5MMX
2:57 PM GMT on March 05, 2013
someone says this on twitter

this is NOT going to be a big snow for NYC. boundary layer in NYC are super warm with large East flow. Friends in NWS in NYC seem to concur


5 mins after, this

It is great to have Colleagues. I can see how NYC does get 6" last tweet premature.

get your mind straight
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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