Winter storm to spread heavy snow from North Dakota to Virginia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:44 PM GMT on March 04, 2013

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The flakes are flying in Minnesota and North Dakota, where up to 10" of snow has fallen from an "Alberta Clipper" that is barreling southeastwards across the U.S. These type of storms, so-named because they originate in Alberta and clip along at a fast forward speed, typically bring the Midwest moderate amounts of fluffy snow that is relatively easy to shovel. The storm, dubbed Winter Storm Saturn by The Weather Channel and "Snowquester" by The Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang, is expected to bring a swath of 6 - 10" of snow from Minnesota to Virginia Monday through Wednesday, with Chicago expected to get 6 - 9", their biggest snow of the season. Once the storm moves off the coast on Wednesday, its strong winds will make coastal flooding a major concern for the Mid-Atlantic coast, particularly Delaware, on Wednesday and Thursday. The computer models are still showing quite a bit of disagreement on what the storm might do on Wednesday. The European model has been the most consistent model, and maintains that the storm will not bring heavy snow to New England. I would lean towards this solution at present. However, keep in mind that the latest run of the GFS model shows a more northerly track, with heavy snow falling along a swath of coast from Long Island, NY, to Boston, MA, Wednesday through Thursday. The exact position of the rain/snow boundary along the Mid-Atlantic coast is also quite uncertain. Washington D.C. could end up with mostly rain, and just 1 - 2" of snow, or get a 6+ inch dumping, picking up more snow from one storm than from the all the snowstorms from the past two winters, combined:

Reagan Nat'l Airport (DCA):
- Snowfall this season-to-date:  1.5"
- Snowfall all last season:  2"
- Last 5"+ snow event:  Jan. 26, 2011 (5")
- Last 10"+ snow event:  Feb. 9-10, 2010 (10.8")

Dulles Airport, Virginia (IAD)
- Snowfall this season-to-date:  5.3"
- Snowfall all last season:  3.7"
- Last 5"+ snow event:  Jan. 26, 2011 (7.3")
- Last 10"+ snow event:  Feb. 9-10, 2010 (9.3")

(Thanks go to Jonathan Erdman of TWC for these stats.) The Capital Weather Gang has an interesting article on historical March snowstorms in Washington D.C. In order for Winter Storm Saturn to crack the top-ten, it would have to dump at least 6.6" of snow on the nation's capital.



Coastal flooding a concern in the Mid-Atlantic
As the storm moves off the coast on Wednesday night, winds gusting to 50 mph will build waves of up to 15' and a 3 - 4' storm surge along the coast to the north of the center. Heavy rains will bring runoff down rivers that will act to increase water levels along the coast. The latest Forecast Discussion from the Mount Holly, NJ NWS office highlights the likelihood of at least moderate coastal flooding in Delaware during the high tide cycles on Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning, with the possibility of major flooding. The latest storm surge forecast from the GFS model calls for a storm surge of around 3' at Lewes, Delaware on Thursday morning, which would bring the 8th highest water level on record to the coast. This is of concern due to the damage Hurricane Sandy brought in October, which weakened the dunes and left the coast more vulnerable to erosion. Sandy brought the 3rd highest water level on record to Lewes.

We'll have ongoing coverage this week of Winter Storm Saturn in our Winter Storm Section.

Jeff Masters

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416. VR46L
Loop embedded

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7018
Quoting hugecoldfront:
The Arctic has been cooling down dramatically in the last month, to the point where it is the coldest it has been all season long. Will this mean a late Spring for the lower 48?
Mid-February to mid-March is always the coldest part of the year in the Arctic, and, of course, the time when ice volume, extent, and area reach their annual maximums. Having said that, the contiguous US is in a cooler regime than it was last year at this time, so Spring won't blast in weeks ahead of schedule as it did during 2012's freakish March. However, long-range forecasts call for the cooler regime to hold sway for another few weeks, then for April and May to be warmer than average for most of the nation.

cpc
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UK Space Agency article..click HERE..





The Cassini–Huygens mission is an international project to study the giant planet Saturn and its rings and moons. The Cassini spacecraft entered orbit around Saturn in 2004 after a journey of nearly seven years from Earth. In January 2005, the Huygens probe landed on the surface of Titan, Saturn’s largest moon. Cassini continues to provide an abundance of data to scientists and a small amount of the spacecraft’s time has been set aside to help young people learn about this fascinating world.

Secondary school students were invited to study three possible targets for Cassini to take images of, and to decide which one they thought would yield the best science results. The three targets for students to choose from were Pan, The F ring and Saturn.

Students were then asked to write an essay justifying their choice in their native language to be judged by panels of national experts.
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Good Morning All..
A mild 60 this am..

MetEd training module link.. click HERE..Fire Weather Patterns in Australia: Southeast Australia

The COMET Program is pleased to announce the publication of a new module, "Fire Weather Patterns in Australia: Southeast Australia." The module focuses on the typical synoptic pattern influencing fire weather in southeast Australia through a case study and insights from experienced fire weather forecasters. A case exercise then allows the learner to apply the concepts and practice using weather and fuel data to create a fire weather forecast policy map for southeastern Australia.

The intended audience for this module includes operational forecasters needing to gain or enhance experience producing fire weather forecasts in Australia. The module might also appeal to forecasters outside of Australia for its value in demonstrating good forecast processes and the application of synoptic scale conceptual models.
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barbamz #391

Thanks for that post! I know Jerry who was in the interview. Cool sinkhole and aquifer report!

If you look at Florida from the air or Google Earth, it is easy to sea the areas susceptible to sinkholes. They are the areas with all the round lakes dotted everywhere. They are what happens after a sink hole opens up on a flat land with a relatively high water table. For about the same price as a years worth of sinkhole insurance, you can get a firm like Jerry's to "ultrasound" your property for voids or potential sinkholes to tell if you have a problem. I'm surprised banks that give out home loans don't make that mandatory in sinkhole prone areas.

P.S. yes, Aussie, your post said that it was Indonesia.
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The Arctic has been cooling down dramatically in the last month, to the point where it is the coldest it has been all season long. Will this mean a late Spring for the lower 48?
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Quoting biff4ugo:
Nice Posts Aussie,

I'm glad to see a government publically trying to reduce the effects of a tropical system with cloud seeding. Do you know if there has been an effort to quanify what success they had?

Have a great evening.

That's the Indonesian Govt. Not the Australian Govt.
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406. VR46L
Good Morning Folks ...The storm is rather big LOL

Loop Embedded

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7018
Nice Posts Aussie,

I'm glad to see a government publically trying to reduce the effects of a tropical system with cloud seeding. Do you know if there has been an effort to quanify what success they had?

Have a great evening.
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Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. Have a workshop today, so was able to sleep in to the time I'm usually heading out the door. Under a wind advisory all day, but a very warm 63 degrees already with a high of 65 expected...

Warm oatmeal with brown sugar, fresh fruit, eggs and bacon and orange juice on the sideboard. Enjoy!
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AccuWeather.com‏@breakingweather

The snow depth in Minneapolis has risen from 5 inches to 11 inches in the current storm.
Member Since: October 27, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 2030
At least your landslides don't start in a bedroom, inside the house!
http://www.cnn.com/2013/03/01/us/florida-sinkhole

Anyone else think it is odd a full circle CME is headed our way but no big warnings of solar activity are up?
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Floods swamp thousands of homes in Jakarta
By Indonesia correspondent George Roberts, Tuesday March 5, 2013 - 20:55 EDT

Indonesian authorities say more than 16,000 people have been affected by flooding in the capital Jakarta.
The water came up overnight after heavy rains in Jakarta and upstream in Bogor, swamping areas of the capital that had only just recovered from January's major flood.
Nearly 6,000 homes have been affected this time, with water up to 2.5 metres deep in some areas.
Indonesia's National Disaster Management Centre says the flood has now subsided in most parts.

But there are still more than 2,200 people left homeless and living in make-shift evacuation centres around the capital.

January's flood affected 250,000 people.
The government then began a cloud seeding operation in an attempt to get the clouds to rain on the ocean before they made landfall, but that program was suspended last week.


ABC 2013
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92P really developing now.




Loop
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SREFs continue to give me high amounts, with the latest at IAD being around 17" mean with good clustering just above that. Even on the low end, I see around a foot being a good bet because I'm just east of there.

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I will be looking out for stray snowflakes that manage to find there way down to southern MD.

This winter has been such a tease for us.

I hope all those that do see lots of snow have fun and stay safe.
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Wow... latest report from our airport is 54! Sounds like a 2 jacket day! :o)

Later, ya'll.... have a good one and stay safe up there in the stormy areas!
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My updated forecast this morning:

Chicago, IL: 5-7" (higher in suburbs)
Indianapolis, IN: 4-6"
Wilmington, OH: 4-6"
Roanoke, Virginia: 1-3"
Washington, D.C.: 10-12"
Philadelphia, PA: 1-3"
New York, NY: 8-10"
Boston, MA: 14-16"
Portland, ME: 2-4"
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I know it 384HR out but what is that SE FL? 00Z GFS
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Almoast all weather models shows a cold snap for European continent for the next week. Could someone please correct me if i'm wrong?
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On the "sinkholes"... here we say "blue holes" for ones that connect to the sea or are found on the shallow offshore banks, but this kind of underground cave is not at all uncommon in the Bahamas. I'd say anywhere u have limestone as a major land formation you'll get this kind of potholing. The more amazing thing is to get one that opens at the top large enough for a house or car to fall into. Normally the entries are quite small and unprepossessing in appearance...

Quite interesting... thanks 4 posting, barba.
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Mystery of Hindenburg air catastrophe solved


Researchers say they know how the Hindenburg airship came to its fiery end: static electricity.

Seventy-six years ago, the German dirigible was promoted as the future of trans-Atlantic flight, but instead it became the notorious poster child of air disasters.

As the hydrogen-filled blimp was landing in Lakehurst, N.J., on May 6, 1937, it suddenly burst into flames and crashed in front of shocked bystanders, killing 35 of the 100 passengers and crew on board—and putting an end to the short-lived air travel program.

Now scientists who have been studying the circumstances that led to the Hindenburg’s end say they know what happened.

The Independent, in an article about a documentary on the Hindenburg airing on Britain's Channel 4 on Thursday, explains that Jem Stansfield, a British aeronautical engineer who led a team of researchers at the Southwest Research Institute in San Antonio, Texas, blew up and set fire to models of the dirigible to rule out possibilities including a bomb and exploding paint.

They Independent reports that the actual chain of events, discovered by the scientists, unfolded as follows:


The airship had become charged with static as a result of an electrical storm. A broken wire or sticking gas valve leaked hydrogen into the ventilation shafts, and when ground crew members ran to take the landing ropes they effectively "earthed" the airship. The fire appeared on the tail of the airship, igniting the leaking hydrogen.

"I think the most likely mechanism for providing the spark is electrostatic," said Mr. Stansfield. "That starts at the top, then the flames from our experiments would've probably tracked down to the center. With an explosive mixture of gas, that gave the whoomph when it got to the bottom."



Link
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About sinkholes and aquifers beneath FL

Good morning from abroad, and sorry, if this link already has been posted earlier. Have a nice day everybody and stay safe in your winterstorm, while Germany is enjoying bright sunshine :-)
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Quoting Skyepony:
Authorities say a foul odor that spurred calls to fire departments throughout the city on Sunday is possibly the result of the large release of methane in the Santa Monica Bay. Santa Monica Fire said in a department statement that they believe the strong odor was caused by a naturally occurring methane leak below the ocean floor. "This morning there was a large release of natural ocean floor methane released in the Santa Monica Bay," the statement said. "This methane is not toxic and dissipates quickly." Sam Atwood, a spokesman for the Air Quality Management District (AQMD), said his agency has not confirmed that theory. Brian Humphrey, a spokesman for the Los Angeles City Fire Department, said the odor was noted inland from the Santa Monica Bay. Last September, a widespread sulfurous stench that blanketed parts of the Southland was apparently traced back to a biological occurrence on the landlocked Salton Sea.


Um... methane is an odorless gas. Sulfur compounds are often smelly, yes, but not methane.

Anyway, a natural release near shore makes a thousand times more sense than "burning barges of trash". The quantity would have to be too vast, the financial logic doesn't pass muster, and burning trash doesn't create methane, it destroys it, for starters (it makes CO2, H2O, and some nasty toxic smoke). And that area is quite geologically active, being a subduction zone and all, with ample hydrocarbon seeps (ever wonder why some of the beaches in California are so tarry? It's been that way since well before oil production)
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Looks like DC115 is going to get her snow at last with this one... sure hope those Mid-ATL people are ready 4 this one. This is the kind of storm that can lead to bad traffic pileups...
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Thanks 4 the coffee, Largo... adding M&M cookies to the sideboard this a.m.... though this is one morning for oatmeal with brown sugar and fresh fruit....

That obs. temps map of FL is freaky... amazing to see splotches of 30s reported even south of the Big O...

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nasty day ahead up there huh............
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Morning all....

Wow! 55 degrees here in Nassau right now, and it got down to 53 a couple hours ago! I've been lying here in bed since 5:30, just to scared to put a toe out into the chill... lol... but now I can't procrastinate about it anymore...

BTW, I wouldn't be surprised to find it got into the upper 40's in Grand Bahama and Abaco...

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LOOK at all this moisture wow..............
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
332 AM EST TUE MAR 5 2013

MDZ003-501-502-VAZ025>031-503-504-WVZ050>053-055- 501>506-051645-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0005.130305T2300Z-130307T0500Z/
WASHINGTON-EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-
AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-
WESTERN HIGHLAND-EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-
JEFFERSON-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-
EASTERN MINERAL-WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...
STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO...HARRISONBURG...WINCHESTER ...FRONT ROYAL...
HIGHTOWN...MONTEREY...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN...MOOREFIELD...
BAYARD...MOUNT STORM...PETERSBURG...ELK GARDEN...KEYSER...
FORT ASHBY...CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN
332 AM EST TUE MAR 5 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...10 TO 14 INCHES.

* TIMING...RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW THIS AFTERNOON...AND CHANGING TO
ALL SNOW BY EARLY THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND THEN TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING. SNOW
WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TONIGHT...LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY WET SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO POWER
OUTAGES WITH DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU NEED TO TRAVEL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
TAKE PLENTY OF EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. ENSURE YOU
HAVE AN EMERGENCY KIT IN YOUR TRUNK.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED. STRONG WINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR
IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

$$
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
G'morn all. G'eve Aussie. Hit me Largo. 2 cream no sugar.
..here ya go..enjoy lol
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G'morn all. G'eve Aussie. Hit me Largo. 2 cream no sugar.
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Good morning to all,evening Aussie. Variable weather will prevail today thru Wednesday as a weak front lingers nearby PR and adjacent islands.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
527 AM AST TUE MAR 5 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN AS TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
LINGER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN AS TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING WESTERLY FLOW AND SHORT
WAVE PULSES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AT LOW LEVELS...A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS DISSIPATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS USVI. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS STILL HOWEVER
NOT EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THERE MIGHT BE BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE
RAINFALL. A SECOND FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE TO AFFECT OVER NEXT WEEKEND...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.


&&

.AVIATION...NNE WINDS 10G20KT IN MOST TERMINALS. CIGS BKN040 WITH
VCSH TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN IMPROVING WED.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH NORTHWEST LONG PERIOD SWELLS HAVE BEGUN TO ARRIVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE. THESE SWELLS
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD AND AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS AND PASSAGES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SEAS UP TO 7 FEET AND WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR
LESS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 71 82 72 / 50 20 30 20
STT 83 74 83 74 / 40 40 40 20
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Good Morning Folks!..the Blogs Coffee is perked..grab a cup or two!..guess todays story is the snow storm in the midlantic states and beyond..stay safe folks.
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Quoting indianrivguy:
Morning Bev.. everyone!

Good evening Aussie!


Good Morning! :)

Well, last 2 days of cleaning and packing....so maybe not so good haha
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cool front comes today,not too bad at all this time...
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Morning Bev.. everyone!

Good evening Aussie!
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Was below freezing here last night, but forecast to hit nearly 60' today and sunny Wooop! That's beach weather here! LOL Then looks like going back to our damp norm from tomorrow. Shame I missed all the good weather being stuck indoors, been the first good spell of a few solid weeks worth in I don't know how long...and that'll be it for the year then! LOL

Llyn Ogwen, not far from my place...if it's actually sunny here, it's likely a good day for the mountains as it's a rain/cloud magnet usually

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Australian government blames climate change for "Angry Summer's weather. Link
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Photographer whips out his camera for rare snaps of huge frothy seas at Pearl Beach








Link


Get that here sometimes. I've heard it's natural and have heard it's from chemical run off or such. Whichever way, hate it when it gets that way cause it just 'looks' dodgy! There were some good photos of it totally covering cars when was a big build up, up by Blackpool last year LOL
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369. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:37 PM EST March 5 2013
=====================================

The monsoon trough extends across the northern Coral Sea to a low near 18.5S 150.5E, about 400 km east northeast of Townsville. The low is forecast to move northeast for the next 2 to 3 days while intensifying and is likely to reach tropical cyclone strength either late Thursday or on Friday. From Friday the system is forecast to move southeast and remain well offshore over the Coral Sea. This system is not expected to affect the Queensland coast during the outlook period.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=====================================
Wednesday: Low
Thursday: High
Friday: High

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Right now I am vertically challenged and horizontal is looking good to me. Nite everyone.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27291
Quoting Grothar:


Wow, MrMixon. That was fast. I think I will post the links and you can post the images. That really was something. Those poor people never had a chance.


Ha! Well, I'm fascinated by landslides (it's part of the reason I went into geology). In addition to Dr. Masters blog, I regularly check The Landslide Blog, maintained by Dave Petley.

I found the following passage about the Saint-Jean-Vianney landslide chilling. Take note, fellow bloggers... if any of this describes your town you might want to pack up the family and relocate pronto:

"Over the few weeks leading up to the landslide, cracks were reported in some of the town's streets and driveways, some house foundations dropped roughly six to eight inches into the soil, and some unusual noises including underground thumps and an untraceable sound of running water were reported." - wikipedia

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Quoting MrMixon:


Saint-Jean-Vianney,Quebec, May 1971.







"Saint-Jean-Vianney was a village in the Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean region of Quebec, which was abandoned after it was partially destroyed in a landslide on May 4, 1971."


Wow, MrMixon. That was fast. I think I will post the links and you can post the images. That really was something. Those poor people never had a chance.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27291

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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