Winter storm to spread heavy snow from North Dakota to Virginia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:44 PM GMT on March 04, 2013

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The flakes are flying in Minnesota and North Dakota, where up to 10" of snow has fallen from an "Alberta Clipper" that is barreling southeastwards across the U.S. These type of storms, so-named because they originate in Alberta and clip along at a fast forward speed, typically bring the Midwest moderate amounts of fluffy snow that is relatively easy to shovel. The storm, dubbed Winter Storm Saturn by The Weather Channel and "Snowquester" by The Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang, is expected to bring a swath of 6 - 10" of snow from Minnesota to Virginia Monday through Wednesday, with Chicago expected to get 6 - 9", their biggest snow of the season. Once the storm moves off the coast on Wednesday, its strong winds will make coastal flooding a major concern for the Mid-Atlantic coast, particularly Delaware, on Wednesday and Thursday. The computer models are still showing quite a bit of disagreement on what the storm might do on Wednesday. The European model has been the most consistent model, and maintains that the storm will not bring heavy snow to New England. I would lean towards this solution at present. However, keep in mind that the latest run of the GFS model shows a more northerly track, with heavy snow falling along a swath of coast from Long Island, NY, to Boston, MA, Wednesday through Thursday. The exact position of the rain/snow boundary along the Mid-Atlantic coast is also quite uncertain. Washington D.C. could end up with mostly rain, and just 1 - 2" of snow, or get a 6+ inch dumping, picking up more snow from one storm than from the all the snowstorms from the past two winters, combined:

Reagan Nat'l Airport (DCA):
- Snowfall this season-to-date:  1.5"
- Snowfall all last season:  2"
- Last 5"+ snow event:  Jan. 26, 2011 (5")
- Last 10"+ snow event:  Feb. 9-10, 2010 (10.8")

Dulles Airport, Virginia (IAD)
- Snowfall this season-to-date:  5.3"
- Snowfall all last season:  3.7"
- Last 5"+ snow event:  Jan. 26, 2011 (7.3")
- Last 10"+ snow event:  Feb. 9-10, 2010 (9.3")

(Thanks go to Jonathan Erdman of TWC for these stats.) The Capital Weather Gang has an interesting article on historical March snowstorms in Washington D.C. In order for Winter Storm Saturn to crack the top-ten, it would have to dump at least 6.6" of snow on the nation's capital.



Coastal flooding a concern in the Mid-Atlantic
As the storm moves off the coast on Wednesday night, winds gusting to 50 mph will build waves of up to 15' and a 3 - 4' storm surge along the coast to the north of the center. Heavy rains will bring runoff down rivers that will act to increase water levels along the coast. The latest Forecast Discussion from the Mount Holly, NJ NWS office highlights the likelihood of at least moderate coastal flooding in Delaware during the high tide cycles on Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning, with the possibility of major flooding. The latest storm surge forecast from the GFS model calls for a storm surge of around 3' at Lewes, Delaware on Thursday morning, which would bring the 8th highest water level on record to the coast. This is of concern due to the damage Hurricane Sandy brought in October, which weakened the dunes and left the coast more vulnerable to erosion. Sandy brought the 3rd highest water level on record to Lewes.

We'll have ongoing coverage this week of Winter Storm Saturn in our Winter Storm Section.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


whoops, my bad.

yeah....I meant to say cleveland.

Did you guys really have to have 3 "c" cities? :)


Ha! If you count Canton we have no less than 4 "c" cities in Ohio. Now I live near Boulder, Colorado, which is surrounded by what we call the "L" towns (Lyons, Longmont, Louisville, Lafayette, Loveland, Lakewood, and Littleton are all within about one hour of Boulder).
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nam hr 48
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The GFS finally btw, is being sensible in not flattening this trough into some kind of newfoundland to baja california vorticity monster.

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This is the result after the stalled low in the north atlantic refuses to move the snowbands away from the coastal NE and boston....18-24"
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Here's my snow forecast:

Member Since: September 3, 2011 Posts: 13 Comments: 3477
Quoting MrMixon:


One correction - Cincinnati (my home town) is located in extreme southwestern Ohio, where the borders of Indiana, Kentucky, and Ohio come together. This area appears to be in the 0-1" range, not 4-10".

If this is anything like the winter storms of my youth, Cincy will be in an area of "mixed" precipitation... seems like most of the snow events in Cincy start off as rain, change to freezing rain, and, if they are lucky, eventually turn to snow.



whoops, my bad.

yeah....I meant to say cleveland.

Did you guys really have to have 3 "c" cities? :)
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941-New Blog Ped ....Maybe you want the last word...

Hey I was still catching up and was oblivious to the Bot till I stumbled upon it. Only 15-30 minutes out of tune with reality..... lol

Thanks for the Update Dr. Masters....
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Media Advisory: EPAs Pollinator Summit on March 5



WASHINGTON - The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) will hold a public meeting with key stakeholders to collaborate on activities to protect honey bees and other pollinators from pesticide risks.

Bees are an important component of agricultural production and are critical to food and ecosystems. The summit will be an opportunity to advance our collective understanding and efforts to protect them.

The EPA has been working aggressively to protect honey bees and other pollinators. The summit is part of the agencys ongoing collaboration with beekeepers, growers, pesticide manufacturers and federal and state agencies to manage potential risks to bees.

WHAT: EPA and USDA Pollinator Summit

WHO: Officials from EPA, USDA, agricultural workers and farmers; beekeepers; pesticide industry and trade associations; environmental, consumer, and farm worker groups; animal welfare organizations; pesticide users and growers; pest consultants; state, local and tribal governments and academia.

WHEN: Tuesday, March 5, 2013, from 8:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. EST

WHERE: Live streamed webinar will be conducted over Adobe Connect:
Link for tomorrows meeting..
https://epa.connectsolutions.com/crosspollinate/
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
8-14" for Chicago
4-10" for Cincinatti and Columbus
6-10" for DC VERY HIGH GRADIENT
12-16" for Boston:



One correction - Cincinnati (my home town) is located in extreme southwestern Ohio, where the borders of Indiana, Kentucky, and Ohio come together. This area appears to be in the 0-1" range, not 4-10".

If this is anything like the winter storms of my youth, Cincy will be in an area of "mixed" precipitation... seems like most of the snow events in Cincy start off as rain, change to freezing rain, and, if they are lucky, eventually turn to snow.



EDIT - looks like the just updated the map - so now Cincy is located in the 2-3" range. Good for them... more snow hopefully means LESS freezing rain... blech.
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Thanks for the blog Dr. Masters..
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting FtMyersgal:


That would be the Mason/Dixon line

Link


Thanks FMG!!

I hopefully now will keep that in my head!!
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Quoting all4hurricanes:

Northern Virginia and Sourthern Virginia are very different I think it would be fair to call VA a southern state but people from the D.C suburbs probably think of themselves as Mid Atlantic (I sure do)


Thanks ! A fair assessment


Quoting pcola57:
Heres something from Wiki on it VR46L..
I didn't realize that there were so many metro areas in defined area named "Mid Atlantic States"..

Mid Atlantic States..From Wikipedia





Thanks PCola

Always learn something new everyday!!
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Quoting VR46L:


Yeah I informed one time not to call Virginia North as its South of Some historic line in the US .. but I couldn't be sure


That would be the Mason/Dixon line

Link
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Surface pressure loop 12z

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Heres something from Wiki on it VR46L..
I didn't realize that there were so many metro areas in defined area named "Mid Atlantic States"..

Mid Atlantic States..From Wikipedia



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Quoting VR46L:


Yeah I informed one time not to call Virginia North as its South of Some historic line in the US .. but I couldn't be sure

Northern Virginia and Sourthern Virginia are very different I think it would be fair to call VA a southern state but people from the D.C suburbs probably think of themselves as Mid Atlantic (I sure do)
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Quoting pcola57:


I believe Virginia is considered a Mid Atlantic state..
I could be wrong but thats my impression..


Yeah I informed one time not to call Virginia ,North as its South of Some historic line in the US .. but I couldn't be sure
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Quoting VR46L:


It hasn't since it nailed Debby ...

But in all seriousness The North has had Quite a Pummelling for the last few months .. I hope it doesn't.

And I am not entirely up on US geography... Is Virginia in the NE as its to get a real coating in the 12Z


I believe Virginia is considered a Mid Atlantic state..
I could be wrong but thats my impression..
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Quoting pcola57:
Thanks Dr. Masters for the updated blog..
Still waiting to see the GFS verify this year..
Thanks again


It hasn't since it nailed Debby ...

But in all seriousness The North has had Quite a Pummelling for the last few months .. I hope it doesn't.

And I am not entirely up on US geography... Is Virginia in the NE as its to get a real coating in the 12Z
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wow Look at that storm off the del-Mar coastline...
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41172
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41172
Thanks Dr. Masters for the updated blog..
Still waiting to see the GFS verify this year..
Thanks again
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THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A STRONG COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

NORTHEAST GALES WILL OCCUR. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR A PERIOD
OF 50 TO POSSIBLY 55 KNOT STORM FORCE GUSTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE
REGARDING THE WIND AND SEA STATE IMPACT OF THIS STORM ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST.

PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATES REGARDING THIS
POTENTIALLY SUBSTANTIAL COASTAL STORM.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41172
ALOT of Uncertainty about DC.............DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
WET SNOW...GUSTY WINDS...AND POSSIBLY COASTAL FLOODING. A WINTER
STORM WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON DC METROPOLITAN AREAS.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND LOCATION OF
THE RAIN-SNOW LINE...WHICH ULTIMATELY WILL DETERMINE SNOWFALL
TOTALS. PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATES.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS IF HEAVY
RAIN OCCURS WEDNESDAY OR IF SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT OCCURS
THEREAFTER.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41172
LOL

TORNADO WARNING
WIC021-025-027-039-045-047-049-055-059-065-077-07 9-089-101-105-111-
117-127-131-133-041645-
/O.NEW.KMKX.TO.W.0002.130304T1628Z-130304T1645Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1028 AM CST MON MAR 4 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A

* TEST TORNADO WARNING FOR...ALL OF WISCONSIN...

* UNTIL 1045 AM CST

* AT 1008 AM CST...NO SEVERE WEATHER WAS OCCURING OR EXPECTED. THIS
IS ONLY A DRILL. THIS DRILL IS PART OF TORNADO AWARENESS WEEK.
TREAT THIS AS IF IT WERE A REAL EMERGENCY AND PRACTICE YOUR
EMERGENCY PLANS.


* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...ALL OF WISCONSIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS IS A TEST MESSAGE. PLEASE
PRACTICE YOUR TORNADO PREPAREDNESS PLANS.

&&

LAT...LON 4320 9044 4321 9029 4317 9020 4355 9020
4356 9031 4365 9031 4365 8961 4398 8960
4399 8889 4390 8888 4390 8841 4394 8817
4389 8816 4389 8773 4368 8770 4326 8791
4301 8789 4278 8774 4249 8781 4251 9043

$$

KAPELA


It's about to start snowing there.
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Ummm ... is anybody else confused by this stat?

- Last 10"+ snow event: Feb. 9-10, 2010 (9.3")
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lots of moisture in the E Pacific on the 12Z GFS at 192HR!!
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GFS says 18" for boston, 12" for west connecticut....
Widespread 6-12" numbers across the NE:



Absolutlely pummels boston...



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almost like a nor'easter up there huh......
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41172
OG i have one mango tree loaded with small fruit,just larger than peas i guess, i was hoping i didnt get a freeze and I lucked out..hopefully I'll get some this year..years ago we had a bad freeze here and the tree stopped producing for about 5-6 years..looks like its ready again..fingers crossed.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41172
The New Jersey coast sure has gotten it rough lately. First Superstorm Sandy came trough in October, practically demolishing every inch of the coastline, especially along the northern coast.

Then Winter Storm Athena came through the following month, causing minor erosion, heavy winds, and light snow.

This storm, Winter Storm Saturn, looks like a media between the two. It won't be nearly as rough as Sandy, no storm in the near future probably won't be, but impacts should be much more significant than they were with the first winter storm. Gusty winds in excess of 50 mph, storm surge several feet, and heavy rainfall should lead to major beach erosion. This is especially true considering the beach has little protection now (all dunes were wiped away).
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32565
Storm surge of 3-4ft maybe isolated 5ft.

Esp in new jersey, long island, and massachusetts
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1021 AM CST MON MAR 4 2013

...POTENT SNOW STORM TO IMPACT AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.AN INTENSE WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE STORM WILL PRODUCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
SNOW WHICH WILL FALL AT HEAVY RATES AT TIMES ESPECIALLY LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. AN INITIAL ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS AND EXTREME EAST CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS FIRST
ROUND OF SNOW WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE HEAVIEST OF THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
TOTALS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
30 WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH. INCREASING WINDS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON MAY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW...RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS...EVEN WHERE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41172
Thanks, Largo... Funny, all the TV weather guys use I-75 as a dividing line for colder interior temps in winter/greater rainfall in summer, but I hadn't really thought of using a major east-west road as a dividing line for cold temps! If the folks above I-4 will kindly keep the gate shut, then, that'd be great! ;-)

My tomatoes and turnips look great, but it's my loaded-down mango trees that I'm really worried about each time we get so cold like this. And the coconuts, which got through the heart of winter just fine, are starting to blister more and more with these deep cold fronts.

Good luck with the garden, Largo!...
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Quoting FunnelVortex:


The radar shows the snow creeping into Marathon County, WI already.



Nothing hitting the ground yet in Dane Co, S. WI, but we are ready and waiting!
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NE..yeah i know how you feel..there seems to be some uncertainty in NWS about where and how much snow will fall, some storm IS coming, most of the models say so..we'll see how it goes, still a few days away, and things can change.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41172
OG ive been here since 85 and my gut tells me, yes we may get some cool fronts still but not like the freezing temps we had this weekend,winter is just about over for us, now north florida may still get some but south of I-4 we should be ok,in a couple of weeks im going to start planting my veggies again, right around the 1st of april
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41172
Largo,most of those days,we are just seeing flurries.Like last night it was snowing most of the evening and didn't even whiten the ground. My concern is late Wednesday into Thursday.Don't want to see another big one,just starting to see some grassy areas showing up since our big blizzard.
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yeah Chicago snow alright............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41172
8-14" for Chicago
4-10" for Cincinatti and Columbus
6-10" for DC VERY HIGH GRADIENT
12-16" for Boston:

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Re: #12, looks like both models agree that the NAO becomes more negative again around 3/20. Anyone know how quick the weather response is to the increases and decreases in the NAO? I keep hearing that it's generally two weeks. (It just seemed that here in South Florida we got cold mighty quick after the NAO went strongly negative, but could just be me not liking cold weather!)

And - does the presence of a deeply negative NAO mean that we here in Florida should expect near-continuous cold? My first winter here was the brutal '09-'10 winter, and we stayed up to 17 degrees F. below normal to just about the end of April (horrific for a tropical gardener like me!).
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gulf winds and moisture headed northward......
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41172
yeah snow 5 out of 7 days whew.....
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Quoting hydrus:


The radar shows the snow creeping into Marathon County, WI already.

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GFS is still set on boston snow...even bigger than DC snow, although most snow is west of DC, they still get a ton.

We'll have to see if the ECMWF agrees.
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Maryland is gonna get it huh...........
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41172
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41172
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41172
this Could turn out to be a big snowfall somewhere within this area............URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
510 AM EST MON MAR 4 2013

DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-501-502-VAZ025> 031-036>040-042-
050>056-501>504-WVZ050>053-055-501>506-041815-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.A.0004.130305T2300Z-130307T0500Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-
FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADI SON-
RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY -
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...
WESTMINSTER...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE ...ANNAPOLIS...
FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO... HARRISONBURG...
WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...CHARLOTTESVILLE...LEESBURG...
CULPEPER...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...
FALLS CHURCH...FREDERICKSBURG...WARRENTON...HIGHTOWN...M ONTEREY...
MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN...MOOREFIELD...BAYARD...MOUNT STORM...
PETERSBURG...ELK GARDEN...KEYSER...FORT ASHBY...CIRCLEVILLE...
FRANKLIN
510 AM EST MON MAR 4 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...MORE THAN 5 INCHES POSSIBLE...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

* TIMING...PRECIPITATION MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW
TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS. HEAVY WET SNOW AND
GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

HTS
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41172
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Thats it for the freezing temps for this week here....
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 41172

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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