TD 27 still battling strong shear

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:36 PM GMT on November 14, 2005

Share this Blog
0
+

Wind shear from strong upper-level westerly winds has disrupted Tropical Depression 27 this afternoon. The depression was probably near tropical storm strength for a few hours late this morning, but since that time, the center of circulation has become more exposed, and the deep convection has retreated to the southeast side. The spiral band that had formed to the south is gone now. Wind shear is continuing to drop, and is now in the 15 - 20 knot range. This shear is still high enough that there remains a 10% the depression will dissipate within the next 48 hours. If the storm can survive until past then, the shear will decrease enough to allow TD 27 to strenghen into a tropical storm and remain in a threat to the Caribbean for the rest of the week.

The eventual intensity of TD 27 is highly uncertain, and will be highly dependent on the track of the storm. If TD 27 can position itself under an upper-level anticyclone that is expected to develop by Wednesday over the central Carribean, the storm has a chance to attain hurricane status. Ocean temperatures are 28-29C--plenty warm enough to allow a hurricane to form. The GFDL model still predicts TD 27 will intensify into a major Category 3 hurricane by the end of the week. However, the other major intensity model, the SHIPS model, forecasts a strong tropical storm by the end of the week. There is no way to tell now which model is more likely to be correct.

The computer models agree on the basic idea that TD 27 will track westward over the Caribbean for the next five days, under the steering of a strong ridge of high pressure. By the end of the week, the models begin to diverge.
The GFDL and NOGAPS depict a stronger system and show a threat to Jamaica, while the GFS and UKMET have a weaker system farther south that is more of a threat to Honduras and Nicaragua. None of the models show the storm moving far enough north to get caught in the westerly winds prevailing over Cuba and getting recurved out to sea. It appears that the ridge of high pressure steering TD 27 westwards will continue to hold in place for at least seven days, making Honduras the most at-risk area for a strike. Remember, a lot can change with forecasts for the large-scale weather patterns five to seven days from now, and the future track that far in advance will depend heaviy on how intense the storm becomes.

The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to make their first flight into TD 27 Tuesday afternoon.

I'll be back with an update in the morning, unless TD 27 gets a name tonight. Incidently, TD 27 is only the 3rd tropical depression in history to form in November in the eastern Caribbean.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 92 - 42

Page: 1 | 2Blog Index

92. mouseybabe
2:48 PM GMT on November 15, 2005
dcw,

now you sound like you work for the NWS !! just kidding, of course...

i really feel like a crystal ball would be as good as anything else at this point...

in the meantime, i'll just keep watching 27 and hoping it falls apart... i am not ready to cope with another cane in so fl until i get my mobile home reset on its blocks and the tie-downs tightened...

hope everyone in the north and midwest will all be safe with the fronts coming your way...

mouse
91. tornadoty
12:23 PM GMT on November 15, 2005
OK folks, my area was upgraded to a moderate risk overnight, with a high risk south of us. Violent (F4-F5) tornadoes were mentioned in the outlook. Keep the midwest and midsouth in your thoughts and prayers today!

Tony
90. dcw
11:04 AM GMT on November 15, 2005
Fairly low, Trouper. It is a possibility, but given that it failed to strengthen tonight my intensity forecast will be revised downward.

Or not. Just saw IR loop, its finally getting together.
Member Since: August 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
89. Trouper415
9:33 AM GMT on November 15, 2005
What are the chances Gamma turns into a major cane?
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 637
88. dcw
5:26 AM GMT on November 15, 2005
FAQ for newer trackers and hurricane enthusiasts: Link
Member Since: August 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
87. theboldman
4:47 AM GMT on November 15, 2005
replied to it
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
86. 8888888889gg
4:42 AM GMT on November 15, 2005
theboldman you got mail
85. weatherluver18
4:30 AM GMT on November 15, 2005
hello whats up hows this storms doing
84. DocNDswamp
4:29 AM GMT on November 15, 2005
Nite Elliston,
Nite Taco2,...I wont be on long myself...yeah that front will be a welcome cool down but we'll have to pay w/ some violent storms 1st.
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4803
83. taco2me61
4:28 AM GMT on November 15, 2005
Nite all I have to give a class tomorrow. :-(

you too Boldman I will chat tomorrow if I have power that is...
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3261
82. taco2me61
4:25 AM GMT on November 15, 2005
I here ya Doc... What is dead will come down now and I will have even more clean up...

I just hope what is left of my roof will stay on untill the insurance gives me money to fix it if you know what I mean...
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3261
81. theboldman
4:23 AM GMT on November 15, 2005
night taco
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
80. taco2me61
4:22 AM GMT on November 15, 2005
well everybody have a great nite and I will chat tomorrow, be safe out there and for the gulf coast be ready for the cold weather that we will get starting on Wed... The high for us will be only around mid 50's and the low will hit mid 30's...


Good Nite All

:-)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3261
79. theboldman
4:21 AM GMT on November 15, 2005
we might have to get some brothers in here to rough you all up a bit ya know what im saying g
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
78. theboldman
4:19 AM GMT on November 15, 2005
be cool all
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
77. DocNDswamp
4:17 AM GMT on November 15, 2005
Hey taco2, ..been viewing darn TD 27 too much, should be concentrating more on this front...w/ or w/o the twister potential, lot of severe stuff coming...yeah, after being so dry our area will go into rainy pattern...now that everything's dead and dried up...can't win.
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4803
76. taco2me61
4:06 AM GMT on November 15, 2005
Sorry for the spelling error I'm hook on phonics LOL

:-)
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3261
75. 8888888889gg
4:04 AM GMT on November 15, 2005
dcw STOP IT NOW
74. taco2me61
4:02 AM GMT on November 15, 2005
Hey Doc, I do agree with you we will for sure have some rough weather starting tomorrow nite and they say we will have some high winds and hail...
This is our ranny season and we normaly have very bad weather this time of year...
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3261
72. EllistonVA
3:57 AM GMT on November 15, 2005
The cat is telling me it's time to go to bed. Good night all and we'll be praying for no tornadoes tomorrow.
Member Since: May 3, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
71. dcw
3:54 AM GMT on November 15, 2005
"windnwaves ths storm up there in ak was a big one not for ca but up there in ak they had 90 mph winds a hurricane in ak but the storm is now over for them i may up bate my blog soon"

Thankfully, I speak lack-of-grammarese. The translation:

"There was lots of wind and waves in the big storm in Alaska, not big for CA, but in Alaska they had 90 mile per hour winds - a hurricane in Alaska! The storm is now over for them, I may update my blog soon."
Member Since: August 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
70. DocNDswamp
3:52 AM GMT on November 15, 2005
Nite torn...stay safe. It's gonna get rough from Midwest to the Gulf coast next 36 hrs... I'm sure we'll see a few more Nov. tornados as it passes.
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4803
69. 8888888889gg
3:52 AM GMT on November 15, 2005
SquirrelRJ yes it has i think evere one in this blog needs about 6 mo off of no hurricane out there
68. EllistonVA
3:45 AM GMT on November 15, 2005
good luck tomorrow tornadoty. be safe.
Member Since: May 3, 2002 Posts: 0 Comments: 0
67. SquirrelRJ
3:42 AM GMT on November 15, 2005
8888888888888, i'm sure it's been a realll long year for you, sitting safely in California and all.

Try living in the path of all these hurricanes, then you can tell me it's a long year.
66. tornadoty
3:40 AM GMT on November 15, 2005
Good night guys. I've got to get some rest.
65. tornadoty
3:35 AM GMT on November 15, 2005
Our local news shows my area right under the triple point. Tomorrow is going to be a doozy of a day. There is literally going to be a superstorm crossing the midwest.
64. dcw
3:32 AM GMT on November 15, 2005
Is anyone noting that the GFDL was initialized with TS winds?
Member Since: August 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
63. DocNDswamp
3:24 AM GMT on November 15, 2005
Before TD 27/Gammajamma can follow ANY of the models...it will have to get it's act together. Can't remember last time I've seen a more disconnected system... with a surface low so scared of T-storms it's run over 100 miles away from 'em.
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 94 Comments: 4803
62. leftyy420
3:07 AM GMT on November 15, 2005
any body interested i have my blog updated. if u want to stop in go ahead

lefty's blog
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
61. 8888888889gg
3:04 AM GMT on November 15, 2005
1004 mb is 29.64in
60. leftyy420
3:03 AM GMT on November 15, 2005
yeah i am back thouhg. told ya in nov i would be taking a little break with all the stuff i had to do
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
59. taco2me61
3:02 AM GMT on November 15, 2005
Hey Leftyy do you think that Gamma will get close to cuba or Fl keys???
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3261
58. yalie98
3:01 AM GMT on November 15, 2005
thanks - if it is getting bigger then im getting worried again despite an email from Dr. M saying Central Pacific Coast of Costa Rica would have 2 bad days of rain at worst
57. Skyepony (Mod)
3:00 AM GMT on November 15, 2005
The ukmet & gfdl has her doing that. The ukmet turns her north a little sooner. Watch the Gfdl take her across, near land then stop & move n.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39445
56. taco2me61
3:00 AM GMT on November 15, 2005
Yalie the lower the mb=millibars the stronger the storm gets
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3261
55. leftyy420
2:59 AM GMT on November 15, 2005
thats the pressure. 1004mb is like what 30.00 or 29.98in something like that
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
54. 8888888889gg
2:59 AM GMT on November 15, 2005
windnwaves ths storm up there in ak was a big one not for ca but up there in ak they had 90 mph winds a hurricane in ak but the storm is now over for them i may up bate my blog soon
53. taco2me61
2:58 AM GMT on November 15, 2005
hey leftyy how are you doing ??? been a long time
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3261
52. yalie98
2:56 AM GMT on November 15, 2005
what does 1004 mb refer to? im a newbie
51. leftyy420
2:55 AM GMT on November 15, 2005
wg thats what the ukmet shows as well
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
49. 8888888889gg
2:52 AM GMT on November 15, 2005
wow look at td 27 evere one 1004 mb right now it is geting big
48. weatherguru
2:51 AM GMT on November 15, 2005
Expert Sr. Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski says the system is currently forecast to move in a westward direction toward Central America, but there is a possibility that the developing storm could be forced to turn to the north

This is from accuweather.com
47. Skyepony (Mod)
2:50 AM GMT on November 15, 2005
Here's a wind shear forcast loop that runs through Nov 18th.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 227 Comments: 39445
46. 8888888889gg
2:49 AM GMT on November 15, 2005
Trouper415 if you are recing it send me one ok
45. taco2me61
2:49 AM GMT on November 15, 2005
Code 1 thank you so much... That is why I am not on here that much anymore...

I just stay in the back and read or lurk if you know what I mean...
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3261
44. taco2me61
2:47 AM GMT on November 15, 2005
sorry everyone had to go to walmart for some goodies...

:-)

8888889gg yes I thought it was too and was just surprized that we have had so many cat 4 & 5's this year... Still waiting on Nov 30 so this would all end...
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 3261
43. Trouper415
2:42 AM GMT on November 15, 2005
I dont really watch TV much 888889. mostly just sports and other good stuff like the simpsons. However!!!!!!! if you give me the time when its on and what station, I'll try and record it for ya, I kinda wanna see it myself.

Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 637
42. code1
2:29 AM GMT on November 15, 2005
Yalie, Dr. M is very good about that. He let me know the chances of a panhandle hit (less than 10%) as Wilma was cranking up.
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 66 Comments: 13872

Viewing: 92 - 42

Page: 1 | 2Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
33 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron