Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:34 PM GMT on March 01, 2013 | +40 |
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
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Precipitable moisture may play a big part in snowfall accumulations..
Doesn't look like the storm will have a whole lot of moisture to play with at this time..
I give today a 10/10 for bad hair day.lol.
that could lead to synoptic cooling.
But im not really sure if the dry air stays...
a noreaster should pull tons of moisture off the sea.
And 130 miles to your south, we are under a winter storm warning, expecting 9 - 12 inches wet, heavy snow. I would rather see it now, than in late March/April..... The Sandhill Cranes and Turkey Vultures that have returned are going to have a rough few days until it starts warming back up toward the end of the week.
OCALA CLEAR 27 23 86 CALM 30.16S
TALLAHASSEE CLEAR 28 24 85 CALM 30.17S
PERRY N/A 29 25 85 CALM 30.17F
CROSS CITY N/A 28 24 85 CALM 30.17S
GAINESVILLE CLEAR 29 25 85 W5
CRYSTAL RIVER FAIR 28 27 93 CALM 30.17S
INVERNESS FAIR 28 28 100 CALM 30.17S
they are all off at work or takeing there kids to school we have a life we all can this stay on the blog this for you we are all off doing other things in life has there is other things in life then this old blog if your looking for some one too talk too 24hrs a day 7 days a week why not you go find other blog or fourm too go on
i find it vary annyouing when you say where is evere one you no vary well this is a monday and evere one is off too work or takeing there kids too school right now or off takeing care of other things like bills
NAM 12z actual snow depth gradient very close to DC meaning the 0'' line isn't much further south.
Link
12z GFS will be out in hour for storm period. Total liquid QPF for 00z, 06z runs consistently around 2'' max for DC Link
You are right people DO have other things to do just as well as I do to.I have a life outside of this blog.So for you to come at me like that is very childish and immature.Stop policing the blog and find somethign else to do since you and everyone else have a life outisde the blog.
Dude.... get a life. LOL
By Kirk Mellish
It was I think 2007 that I gave my first public views on "Global warming, climate and greenhouse gases". We at WSB Radio and Neal Boortz gave it a lot of attention on the radio and in my blog here at wsbradio.com. Unfortunately, when the station migrated to new servers they did not transfer my report over. Ah, the corporate world. Anyway, that full report became some 28 pages long. Ya see the real world is more complicated than talking heads want you to think. Certainly atmospheric physics does not lend itself to bumper sticker slogans, talking points or sound bytes by politicians or talk show hosts.
I have neither the time nor resources to start over, and my job is daily weather forecasting 24/7, not climate or politics. So if you missed the full report when I posted it or my short version on the radio I am sorry. My thoughts are informed by my degree in meteorology and 37 years of reading actual published and vetted science journals.
Here is a "down and dirty" version of my thoughts, remember this is distilled from the 28 page report so it is over simplified and I leave out the hard science specifics to make it easy on the laymen.
Know this...there are scientists I know and respect with better credentials than mine, on both sides of this issue. There are some good people on both sides. This is part of the reason I keep and open mind, I think all smart people do that about everything, and the scientific method... in which I've been trained... demands it!
In view of the warm US 2012 and the recent record warm January Thaw I've been getting asked a lot about it again, so here%u2019s my SEVERELY shortened view:
First. the globe has warmed in the period referenced. And we cannot blame bad instruments or sites or many of the other excuses offered, because the evidence of warming is NOT restricted to temperature data from ground instruments or satellites. For example, data comes from corals, mountain tops, tree rings, ice cores, deep ocean cores, air chemistry, rock chemistry, deep earth cores etc. all over the globe, and notably birds, animals, plants, diseases, insects etc. planet wide, ALL have changed consistent with a warming planet.
2. This does not mean the warming has to or will continue forever or is entirely our fault.
3. The planet has warmed and cooled in the past hot periods and ice ages before industrialization and all scientists are aware of that and take it into account.
4. No there never was a scientific consensus in the 60s or 70s that the globe was cooling and the next ice age started; those were typical misleading mainstream media headlines.
5. I do not think we have all the answers with regard to the cause.
6. It could be man, or natural or both. There is an overwhelming scientific consensus that the planet is warming and anthropogenic CO2 based, but consensus does not equal guaranteed correct or certainty, and consensus in science does not mean settled.
7. There are alarmists, extremists and hucksters pushing agendas on both sides. Both sides have funding and political agendas. Yet there are plenty of good and honest people on both sides.
8. There is big money to be made OR lost by advocating both sides not just one, hence point 7 above.
9. I don't think we have enough knowledge or understanding to correctly project the long-term future of it, the amount or timing of warming or its affects/impacts on other things. Even the many IPCC reports give wide ranges on all these not absolutes.
10. Greenhouses gases are real and do warm the planet, without them the planet would be uninhabitable so UP TO A POINT they are good and necessary.
11. There are things we can and should do that will slow or reverse it, IF it is unnatural CO2 based, that are GOOD to do for other reasons/benefits EVEN if it is NOT man-made.
12. Because of the uncertainty I only support these and not more expensive and elaborate ideas proposed by some, there are risks of the law of unintended consequences.
13. And likewise because of the uncertainty and the potential threat I don't support doing nothing, wishing it away or crossing our fingers.
14. For the same reason I don't support going all in or all out to stop or reverse it, especially not unilaterally and not with risky and costly schemes like geo-engineering.
15. The efforts that are made MUST be global, the US cannot do it alone because among other reasons it would not work since the warming and CO2 is global not just U.S.
16. We've worked through difficult and complex things before and we can do so again, because this is America and we are Americans dammit.
Again, this is out of 28 pages so understand I am not even trying to cover all pro and con points here.
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LOL I kids
Goodnight all, Stay warm, Stay safe.
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Night Aussie!! :-)
I know why no one is commenting...
WE ARE ALL BUSY....
LOL
That is actually very Cool... Thanks !!
Not entirely? Need I remind us of our tendency to have short memories of such things. We didn't even hit 60 for weeks at one point in the winter of 2010 and had nights below freezing for near a week. The winter ended up being as cold as an average winter in Kentucky.
There have been other winters with plenty of cold air as well. This is probably the warmest winter I've seen since living here in the mid 90's.
However, climate change in the long term would tend to mean more extremes for us but overall warmer averages globally including Florida. We'll see what happens with Florida the next 30 years. This winter seems indicative of that actually. Mostly warm but then a period of very cold weather misplaced as we head into spring.
Also, I've spent my life studying Florida climate and mesoscale meteorology meteorology of Florida. Based on current expectation of climate change, I would expect Florida's dry seasons to become warmer and drier while our summers should favor an increase in hot, humid days along with more extreme rain events and overall more significant rainy seasons.
Essentially, more in the direction of a monsoon tropical climate, extremely wet periods and extremely dry periods.
Of course, I could be wrong, time will tell, but that's my take on it.
2) No, it doesn't. But then again, it doesn't need to; there are mountains of other evidence that do that.
3) And...?
4) Correct.
5) No one says we do. But that doesn't mean "we" know nothing.
6) Consensus in science doesn't mean "settled". But what it does mean is "the overwhelming preponderance of evidence says that the planet is warming due to man's activities. And there remains not a single viable alternative theory."
7) Possibly. But only the "alarmists, extremists and hucksters" on one side have science backing them up; the other has nothing but ideological wishful thinking.
8) The top 5 oil companies alone earn over $100 billion dollars in profit each year. That amount dwarfs any and every bit of money to be made or lost by the supporters side.
9) He's entitles to his opinion, but, again, it carries no scientific weight, and he is derinitely swimming again the tide of evidence in staking such a claim.
10) Sure. And UP TO A POINT, water is good and necessary. But that doesn't mean people don't drown in it.
11) This is a point of view shared by many.
12) He's free to support what he wishes, but even should the climate change at the low end of "uncertainty", doing only the inexpensive and easy ideas will prove futile.
13) I'll buy that.
14) Half-measures do no good.
15) Of course. But we can only control our own behaviors; avoiding doing the right thing just because others choose not to do so is a behavior most people outgrow during high school.
16) We Americans have worked through complex issues. But otehr complex and difficult issues are swept under the rug, and left to fester for decades.
GROOVEY
We'll have to see if the ECMWF agrees.
Potentially, but those residents don't live in Chicago.
Goldilocks Temps.
New Blog Ped ....Maybe you want the last word...
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