Late February storms put only a slight dent in U.S. drought

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:14 PM GMT on February 28, 2013

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Abundant moisture from heavy rains and snows that fell during two major Midwest storms in late February put only a slight dent in the great Midwest drought of 2012 - 2013. According to the February 28, 2013 Drought Monitor, the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. suffering moderate or greater drought shrank from 56% to 54%, and the area in the worst category of drought--exceptional drought--fell from 6.7% to 5.4% over the past week. These are the largest 1-week improvements in these drought categories that we've seen for 9 months and 15 months, respectively. The improvements were most noteworthy in Oklahoma, the Texas Panhandle, and the Southeast U.S., where drought improved by a full category (using the level 1 to 4 categories of the Palmer Drought Severity Index.) However, the dry pattern that has been dominant over the U.S. for most of the past year will re-assert itself during the coming ten days, and most of the drought region will receive less than 0.5" of precipitation through March 9. There exists the possibility of a significant Midwest storm on March 10, according to recent runs of the GFS and ECMWF computer models, but it is too early to assess if this storm may be able to provide significant drought relief. In general, droughts are more likely in the Midwest U.S. when warmer than average ocean temperatures prevail in the tropical Atlantic, with cooler than average ocean temperatures in the tropical Eastern Pacific (La Niña-like conditions.) This is what we had in during most of 2012, and continue to have in 2013. Equatorial East Pacific ocean temperatures are currently 0.5°C below average. This is similar to the ocean temperatures seen in the spring of 2012, just before the Great Drought of 2012 began. Most of the U.S. drought region needs 3 - 9" of precipitation to pull out of drought. Unless the Midwest receives a top-ten percent wettest spring on record, drought is going to be a huge concern as we enter summer.


Figure 1. Drought conditions as of February 28, 2013 showed that drought still gripped a majority of the U.S. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.


Figure 2. Predicted 7-day precipitation for the period ending Thursday, March 7. Less than 10% of the U.S. drought regions are predicted to receive as much as 0.5" of precipitation (dark green color.) Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Jeff Masters

2/25/13- Blizzard (akboss1995)
Canyon, Texas
2/25/13- Blizzard
Breaking Storm (CameraDiva)
A lifting storm above the Ruby Mountain peaks.
Breaking Storm
snow on ice over water... (linear)
icing followed by snow and temperatures just above freezing...
snow on ice over water...

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Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
NWS forecast for tomorrow morning..
Includes my area..

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Good Morning All..
Beautiful sunrise again this am..




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This was the scene in Harrisburg, Illinois a year ago as a violent, and high-end, EF4 moved through the city during the pre-dawn hours:



A total of 8 were killed, but many more were injured. This tornado was just one of 42 that touched down across the Midwest and Ohio River Valley between February 28-29, 2012.

A larger tornado outbreak would be lurking around the corner, on March 2.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32870
Shockingly-powerful new camera


Kim Komando Article




Meet ARGUS. It's a new technology made for government spy planes that uses a 1.8 gigapixel sensor! It's so detailed it could see what smartphone you have from 20,000 feet away.

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213. MahFL
Quoting islander101010:
senator rubio voting against disaster relief?????? wheres he from? he:s too busy looking into a mirror thinking hes going to be president to understand the importance of this vote. watch out miami if you get hurt.


Did he drink some more water ?
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212. MahFL
With the quiet weather, Steph on TWC has resorted to singing and dancing.......
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MetEd post today


Topic: Training Module on GOES-R ABI6 Comet Program



Training Module Link

The COMET Program is pleased to announce the publication of the new module "GOES-R ABI: Next Generation Satellite Imaging". This one-hour module focuses on the next generation GOES-R ABI 16-channel imager to be launched this decade. With increased spectral coverage, higher spatial resolution, more frequent imaging, and improved image pixel geolocation and radiometric performance, the ABI will bring significant improvements to forecasting, numerical weather prediction, and climate and environmental monitoring. The first part of the module introduces the ABI's key features and improvements over earlier GOES imagers. The second section lets users interactively explore the ABI's 16 channels. The third section contains movies that show the improvements that the ABI will bring to the following application areas: convection, flooding, wildfires, land cover, hurricanes, climate, air quality, aviation, coastal and marine, and fog and low visibility. The final section contains additional resources pertaining to the ABI. The module has numerous takeaways, including ten application movies and an interactive spectrum.

Please follow this link to the MetEd description page that provides additional information and a link to begin the module: GOES-R ABI: Next Generation Satellite Imaging. (https://www.meted.ucar.edu/training_module.php?id =987)
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Everyone have a great Friday. Aussie, have a great Saturday!
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rubio so young that he does not remember what if andrew went 20miles north?
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Re 207 big yawwwwnnnnn. Too early for this and waaaayyyy off topic.
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senator rubio voting against disaster relief?????? wheres he from? he:s too busy looking into a mirror thinking hes going to be president to understand the importance of this vote. watch out miami if you get hurt.
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I'M AWAKE! Just barely. G'mornin folks. They took the flurries outta my forecast. sigh... Coffee! Yea!

41F on da Bayou.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
What Makes This Temperature Map Interesting?



It is a simple yet monumental thing if you are a warm weather lover! If you notice in this map the coldest temps I can find on this map are in So. Canada (you can see the key on the upper left) and not one single one is below zero!! This is HUGE if you are anxious for the air to start warming. What this is showing me is that the massive area of cold air that has been to the north the last 6 weeks is starting to break. Also climatologically this is the time of year that we start to warm up

Our drought is over:







13.62 inches in December of 2009 still stands.

Here at my location, my February rainfall total is 13.29 inches. Here are some other Precipitation Totals for February across Georgia

Albany - 8.77 inches
Athens - 7.66 inches
Atlanta - 9.02 inches
Augusta - 9.40 inches
Columbus - 13.51 inches
Macon - 13.75 inches
Savannah - 9.75 inches
Valdosta - 5.39 inches

Words say it all, Drought Monitor says some relief!
really, pools full, and they say some relief, give me a break!
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Quoting Maineweatherguy20023:

make it another 2 foot blizzard, and mother nature's snow debt to me incurred after last non winter will be paid.

Good morning. As I predicted last night, models are trending north. Still too far south for a big NE storm, more of a grazing right now, but going the right direction for a hit. One way or another, it's gonna be a beast of a storm, even if it doesn't hit here.

Have a great Friday all! Half-day of school for me today :)
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7-day for Tampa Bay area.............
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cool today,cold this weekend but No Freeze by me....
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Good Morning Folks!..Blogs Coffee is PERKED ENJOY..HAVE A GREAT DAY EVERYONE
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Good morning, everyoe. Evening, Aussie. A chilly 38 degrees here, with a high of about 55 later on. It didn't warm up much yesterday as it said it would, so we'll see. And it's March! I love 1 March. Ir means Spring is here - the last stretch of the school year.

Breakfast is on the sideboard: egg cassarole, bacon and sausage, french toast and yogurt. Enjoy!
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:
This would be a nice way to end winter... unfortunately it's too long range to believe:



make it another 2 foot blizzard, and mother nature's snow debt to me incurred after last non winter will be paid.
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Good morning!

Good evening Aussie!
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Good morning to all and evening to Aussie. A dry and warm weekend for the NE Caribbean islands is on tap.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
505 AM AST FRI MAR 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH ESTABLISHES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN FACT...SATELLITE
DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF 25-35 PERCENT BELOW
NORMAL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM PUERTO RICO TO 60 WEST. IN THIS
PATTERN...NUMERICAL MODELS SUGGEST FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS UNTIL
SUNDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS LOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE ARRIVAL OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT...
MOISTURE WILL THEN START TO SURGE LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE OVER
EASTERN HISPANOLA...MONA PASSAGE AND THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAKENING AND VEERING OF THE TRADES BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL TEND TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...WITH SHOWERS AFFECTING
MAINLY THE NORTH AND WEST PORTIONS PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOCAL FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TJSJ 01/00Z SOUNDING
INDICATED A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW ALL THE WAY FROM THE
SURFACE TO AROUND 15K FEET...BECOMING WESTERLY AND STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SLOWLY ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MODERATE NNW SWELL FOR NEXT
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY AFFECTING THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 71 84 73 / 0 0 0 0
STT 84 72 83 74 / 10 0 0 10
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I got this in an email this evening and I thought some folks here would be interested. It is very worthwhile. You will have to register if are not registered already. I went through the material and learned a lot about the limitations of the current GOES imaging system and how the ABI will be a great improvement.

Greetings,

The COMET Program is pleased to announce the publication of the new module "GOES-R ABI: Next Generation Satellite Imaging". This one-hour module focuses on the next generation GOES-R ABI 16-channel imager to be launched this decade. With increased spectral coverage, higher spatial resolution, more frequent imaging, and improved image pixel geolocation and radiometric performance, the ABI will bring significant improvements to forecasting, numerical weather prediction, and climate and environmental monitoring. The first part of the module introduces the ABI's key features and improvements over earlier GOES imagers. The second section lets users interactively explore the ABI's 16 channels. The third section contains movies that show the improvements that the ABI will bring to the following application areas: convection, flooding, wildfires, land cover, hurricanes, climate, air quality, aviation, coastal and marine, and fog and low visibility. The final section contains additional resources pertaining to the ABI. The module has numerous takeaways, including ten application movies and an interactive spectrum.

Please follow this link to the MetEd description page that provides additional information and a link to begin the module: GOES-R ABI: Next Generation Satellite Imaging.
(https://www.meted.ucar.edu/training_module.php?id =987)

This module uses JavaScript so please ensure that your browser is updated to the latest version, with JavaScript enabled. For technical support for the module, please visit our Registration and Support FAQs at https://www.meted.ucar.edu/resources_faq.php

Locally here in Melbourne, Harris Corporation has a part in the overall GOES-R program working on the ground segment of the data acquisition. A few years ago before the contract was even awarded I was pushing to get on project, I met the team but it really wasn't a good fit. I am happy for the project leader who worked so hard to get the award and the rest of his team, it is going to be a great advance over what we have currently.
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I urge all of you to find a gloomier forecast. :)

(This is where I live, by the way.)

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Happy March everyone... if it got there already
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
190. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:42 AM WST March 1 2013
========================

At 11:00 AM WST, a low [11U] was located in the monsoon trough near 15S 102E and is moving eastwards. Conditions are unfavorable for development therefore this low is not expected to develop into a Tropical Cyclone.
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GFS showing snow for SW Florida
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188. vis0
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm not disagreeing with him. Because cold air will dominate much of the USA next month with a trough in the East and ridging in the West, we probably won't see much tornado activity and will drop below average. Though we may end up below average as a month, I expect a big ramp-up by late March, and especially April.


MY OPINION, but when one reads colder air still around or dominant, IF the next air mass or the replenishing air is slightly cooler AND FEEDS CONTINUOUSLY THE SAME AREA with cooler air. Then what was the colder air BECOMES warmer as the continuously cooler air wedges under it (cooler air thus heavier wedges under OLD cold air)thus one can still see tornadic activity, as to nature its the amount of cubic difference as to mass, weight & direction not where the individual difference begins and ends.
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187. vis0

Quoting Chucktown:


Joe Bastardi disagrees...

From his Twitter page

"March tornado activity this year below normal. ECMWF continues cold regime through 20th. GFS ensembles at war with Ecmwf and now, CGEM"

Link
With all the respect to the professionals, Activity & severity are not the same, careful and stay in touch with sites as this (WXU) where your not just told what compu'rs spit out but observations on the ground.
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Bedtime Here. Stay Safe All - Stay Warm - Sleep Well
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So, my cat is inside right now since it is chilly outdoors, and we were turning on our gas fireplace while we wait on parts for our heat...

My father was turning on the gas, and my cat's eyes were getting bigger and bigger as he watched the flames begin to appear, and then pop into a full fire within the fireplace.

^Pretty funny to see, cat had no idea what was going on.
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Aussie left me hanging here.....
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Fire update: 20% contained. Location 1 1/2-2 East of Riverside Airport.
2 miles SE of my location and on the other side of the river. There is a
mandatory evacuation on 2 streets closest to the fire. Some power poles
have caught fire and some wire are down or close to being so. Looking
much better than it was earlier on the news.
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Quoting Chucktown:


Joe Bastardi disagrees...

From his Twitter page

"March tornado activity this year below normal. ECMWF continues cold regime through 20th. GFS ensembles at war with Ecmwf and now, CGEM"

Link

I'm not disagreeing with him. Because cold air will dominate much of the USA next month with a trough in the East and ridging in the West, we probably won't see much tornado activity and will drop below average. Though we may end up below average as a month, I expect a big ramp-up by late March, and especially April.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32870
Quoting Astrometeor:
Cody, how much snow do you think I will get? Here's the part of the discussion from my NWS for Friday and Saturday. I am 10 miles to the north of Nashville.

SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS WITH ACTUAL TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL
LOW AND ASSOCIATED MOVEMENT ACROSS THE MID STATE. BUT AS OF THIS TIME...
THERE IS AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY
AROUND ONE HALF OF AN INCH ACROSS LOCATIONS NEAR THE TENNESSEE/ALABAMA
BORDER...TO AROUND ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE HIGHLAND RIM AND LOCATIONS APPROACHING THE TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY
BORDER. AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
MAY RANGE FROM TWO INCHES...TO LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS APPROACHING
THREE INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PLATEAU.

Snow will probably start in your area early tomorrow, probably 8-9 am. While it should snow most of the day, moisture and forcing isn't particularly impressive, so it will fall moderately at best. Because highs are expected to rise above the freezing mark, and this storm isn't expected to drop a ton of heavy, wet snow, a lot that falls will probably end up melting or only sticking for a short period of time. The snow should exit about 24 hours after starting, or sometime around 7-9 am Sunday morning. As for accumulations, I'd say the NWS there is being a tad bullish. An inch at best.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32870
Quoting Chucktown:


Joe Bastardi disagrees...

From his Twitter page

"March tornado activity this year below normal. ECMWF continues cold regime through 20th. GFS ensembles at war with Ecmwf and now, CGEM"

Link


Joe?...I have to check out what he has been up to lately...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Tornado activity may ramp up quite a bit as we head into late March. The NAO/AO are forecast to [finally] head back towards the positive phase, while the PNA trends towards negative. If you extrapolate, it also appears the MJO will be reaching octants 2/3 by the end of next month, both of which favor significant tornado activity; many of the United States' largest outbreaks coincided with phase 2.

We'll see...but this is just a reminder that 'real' tornado season is right around the corner.

On the subject of tornado forecasts, Mark Ellinwood%u2013an operational meteorologist with EarthSat%u2013has released his thoughts regarding the 2013 tornado season.

Near normal tornado activity is forecast

Personally, given the track record so far this year and the way things look for March/April, I would bet on the season being slightly above average. But that's just me.

...and a random tornado picture just to round things off:



Joe Bastardi disagrees...

From his Twitter page

"March tornado activity this year below normal. ECMWF continues cold regime through 20th. GFS ensembles at war with Ecmwf and now, CGEM"

Link
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Cody, how much snow do you think I will get? Here's the part of the discussion from my NWS for Friday and Saturday. I am 10 miles to the north of Nashville.

SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS WITH ACTUAL TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL
LOW AND ASSOCIATED MOVEMENT ACROSS THE MID STATE. BUT AS OF THIS TIME...
THERE IS AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY
AROUND ONE HALF OF AN INCH ACROSS LOCATIONS NEAR THE TENNESSEE/ALABAMA
BORDER...TO AROUND ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE HIGHLAND RIM AND LOCATIONS APPROACHING THE TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY
BORDER. AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
MAY RANGE FROM TWO INCHES...TO LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS APPROACHING
THREE INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PLATEAU.
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Quoting JustPlantIt:
What does Space rocket X plan to do? Think that it will be another hole in the atmosphere, don't know.



Here is the plan

Link
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Quoting Astrometeor:


ah, Pink Floyd. Sorry Pedley, have homework to do after having a band concert.

No idea where everyone else is.

I guess everyone turned in for the night.
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Tornado activity may ramp up quite a bit as we head into late March. The NAO/AO are forecast to [finally] head back towards the positive phase, while the PNA trends towards negative. If you extrapolate, it also appears the MJO will be reaching octants 2/3 by the end of next month, both of which favor significant tornado activity; many of the United States' largest outbreaks coincided with phase 2.

We'll see...but this is just a reminder that 'real' tornado season is right around the corner.

On the subject of tornado forecasts, Mark Ellinwood--an operational meteorologist with EarthSat--has released his thoughts regarding the 2013 tornado season.

Near normal tornado activity is forecast

Personally, given the track record so far this year and the way things look for March/April, I would bet on the season being slightly above average. But that's just me.

...and a random tornado picture just to round things off:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32870
Quoting PedleyCA:
Is there anybody out there.


ah, Pink Floyd. Sorry Pedley, have homework to do after having a band concert.

No idea where everyone else is.
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Is there anybody out there.
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NOAA.gov

apparently this soccer ball made a voyage from Japan to Alaska driven by the powerful tsunami after the 9.0 quake of 311/11 that hit offshore Sendai, Japan...

Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
much more than I thought for Northern Maine

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7
AM EST FRIDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...HEAVY WET SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH THE HIGHEST
TOTALS ACROSS NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK COUNTY.

* TIMING...THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL RESULT IN DIFFICULT DRIVING
CONDITIONS AND VERY POOR VISIBILITIES TONIGHT.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Climate Change Quiz

From Christian Science Monitor
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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