Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog |
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| Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:14 PM GMT on February 28, 2013 | +25 |
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.
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shall this winter deceive you then...
Would you please us today with one of those great astronomy pictures of yours?
Washington doesn't deserve ANYTHING, I rest my case
Was awesome to see
(Storm produces the Yellow in NJ NYC CT area):
(note the low and strong 850mb winds in NE on ecmwf )
And finally this strange trough and warmth at 240hrs, note the LLJ in the southern mississippi valley):
I have to disagree with you on this. Or maybe you are just saying that the forecast cannot be expected to mention snow for this specific event? If so, then I would not disagree with that, necessarily.
However, the high March sun angle does NOT preclude to possibility of snow occurring in Florida in March, per se. After all, it has happened before and on several occasions. The most notable instance was during the March, 1993 Superstorm, when several inches of accumulation was observed in parts of the Panhandle and snow showers were experienced in various parts of the northern half of the Florida Peninsula.
Models have been consistant in showing a very significant severe wx event around March 10th. Something to watch going forward.
I doubt we see those amounts. It would have to fall at night as for anything to fall during the day temperatures would have to be well below freezing to in order for it to accumulate. It's definitely happened before up here but usually falls at night to get anything significant.
That was followed by an Arctic Blast not the case this time. Gulf is very warm for this time of year and with WNW winds being so strong then I would right off any chance of snow occuring in FL (except the for NW Panhandle) maybe has a 5% chance of seeing something.
I ask you guys because I see hypuweather and the market channel(TWC) already has doom and gloom for my area.Hypuweather is already saying to prepare for a all out blizzard.lololol.
IN NATURE DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 700MB.
THIS IS WHY THE PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGES FROM LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO CREATE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS. WITH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING ON SATURDAY...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED
TO GRASSY AREAS AND ONCE THE SNOW SHOWER MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...THE
SNOW WILL MELT. ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LESS THAN ONE-HALF
INCH IN MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO 32 DEGREES AND LESS MELTING
WILL OCCUR.
OK, I would agree with that assessment, just wanted to clarify whether you were speaking of this upcoming event specifically or for the month of March in general.
You also mentioned a bit earlier how warm this winter has been. One big reason for this is that we have not had a single Arctic blast where a big trough set up in the Eastern US and a full-blown Arctic air mass drained southward through the CONUS. Instead, most of the earlier cold events had the heart of the Arctic air mass shunting off to the east over the Northern US, leaving us here in Florida with just the fringe effects. It is rare to go through an entire winter here without experiencing the full effects of at least one major Arctic outbreak.
Not much change expected before Tuesday....
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