Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Late February storms put only a slight dent in U.S. drought
Posted by: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:14 PM GMT on February 28, 2013 +25
Abundant moisture from heavy rains and snows that fell during two major Midwest storms in late February put only a slight dent in the great Midwest drought of 2012 - 2013. According to the February 28, 2013 Drought Monitor, the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. suffering moderate or greater drought shrank from 56% to 54%, and the area in the worst category of drought--exceptional drought--fell from 6.7% to 5.4% over the past week. These are the largest 1-week improvements in these drought categories that we've seen for 9 months and 15 months, respectively. The improvements were most noteworthy in Oklahoma, the Texas Panhandle, and the Southeast U.S., where drought improved by a full category (using the level 1 to 4 categories of the Palmer Drought Severity Index.) However, the dry pattern that has been dominant over the U.S. for most of the past year will re-assert itself during the coming ten days, and most of the drought region will receive less than 0.5" of precipitation through March 9. There exists the possibility of a significant Midwest storm on March 10, according to recent runs of the GFS and ECMWF computer models, but it is too early to assess if this storm may be able to provide significant drought relief. In general, droughts are more likely in the Midwest U.S. when warmer than average ocean temperatures prevail in the tropical Atlantic, with cooler than average ocean temperatures in the tropical Eastern Pacific (La Niña-like conditions.) This is what we had in during most of 2012, and continue to have in 2013. Equatorial East Pacific ocean temperatures are currently 0.5°C below average. This is similar to the ocean temperatures seen in the spring of 2012, just before the Great Drought of 2012 began. Most of the U.S. drought region needs 3 - 9" of precipitation to pull out of drought. Unless the Midwest receives a top-ten percent wettest spring on record, drought is going to be a huge concern as we enter summer.


Figure 1. Drought conditions as of February 28, 2013 showed that drought still gripped a majority of the U.S. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.


Figure 2. Predicted 7-day precipitation for the period ending Thursday, March 7. Less than 10% of the U.S. drought regions are predicted to receive as much as 0.5" of precipitation (dark green color.) Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Jeff Masters
2/25/13- Blizzard (akboss1995)
Canyon, Texas
2/25/13- Blizzard
Breaking Storm (CameraDiva)
A lifting storm above the Ruby Mountain peaks.
Breaking Storm
snow on ice over water... (linear)
icing followed by snow and temperatures just above freezing...
snow on ice over water...
Categories: Drought Q Rocky Plato Orko
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251. trHUrrIXC5MMX 2:57 PM GMT on March 01, 2013    
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes.But when you think about the pathetic snow total of 1.5" at R.N.A and then Florida getting snow then we have a problem..


shall this winter deceive you then...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 32 Comments: 7878
252. trHUrrIXC5MMX 3:00 PM GMT on March 01, 2013    
@ Pcola57

Would you please us today with one of those great astronomy pictures of yours?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 32 Comments: 7878
253. RitaEvac 3:00 PM GMT on March 01, 2013    
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes.But when you think about the pathetic snow total of 1.5" at R.N.A and then Florida getting snow then we have a problem..


Washington doesn't deserve ANYTHING, I rest my case
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 8878
254. eddye 3:02 PM GMT on March 01, 2013    
so are still having another strong cold front moving in next late week like wat it said yesterday
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255. Skyepony (Mod) 3:06 PM GMT on March 01, 2013    
4 minutes til launch of Space X Dragon-9 to ISS. Watch live here. Got my camera ready.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 144 Comments: 29268
256. washingtonian115 3:12 PM GMT on March 01, 2013    
Quoting RitaEvac:


Washington doesn't deserve ANYTHING, I rest my case
You live on the Texas coast right?.You don't live in Florida..And yes we do deserve snow in this barren cloudy winter.So many promises and so little to show for.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 10618
257. txjac 3:12 PM GMT on March 01, 2013    
Quoting Skyepony:
4 minutes til launch of Space X Dragon-9 to ISS. Watch live here. Got my camera ready.


Was awesome to see
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258. trHUrrIXC5MMX 3:13 PM GMT on March 01, 2013    
and LIFT OFF!!!!



Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 32 Comments: 7878
259. GeorgiaStormz 3:15 PM GMT on March 01, 2013    






(Storm produces the Yellow in NJ NYC CT area):


(note the low and strong 850mb winds in NE on ecmwf )






And finally this strange trough and warmth at 240hrs, note the LLJ in the southern mississippi valley):
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7129
260. FLWaterFront 3:20 PM GMT on March 01, 2013    
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Sun angle too high now for snow to even be mentioned for FL. Also of note with this cold snap over the weekend there is going to be a thick cloud deck in place keeping temps much warmer than some might think for Sunday Night.



I have to disagree with you on this. Or maybe you are just saying that the forecast cannot be expected to mention snow for this specific event? If so, then I would not disagree with that, necessarily.

However, the high March sun angle does NOT preclude to possibility of snow occurring in Florida in March, per se. After all, it has happened before and on several occasions. The most notable instance was during the March, 1993 Superstorm, when several inches of accumulation was observed in parts of the Panhandle and snow showers were experienced in various parts of the northern half of the Florida Peninsula.
Member Since: October 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 495
261. StormTrackerScott 3:20 PM GMT on March 01, 2013    
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:






(Storm produces the Yellow in NJ NYC CT area):


(note the low and strong 850mb winds in NE on ecmwf )






And finally this strange trough and warmth at 240hrs, note the LLJ in the southern mississippi valley):



Models have been consistant in showing a very significant severe wx event around March 10th. Something to watch going forward.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 908
262. ILwthrfan 3:22 PM GMT on March 01, 2013    
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
more snow for the snow-weary



I doubt we see those amounts. It would have to fall at night as for anything to fall during the day temperatures would have to be well below freezing to in order for it to accumulate. It's definitely happened before up here but usually falls at night to get anything significant.
Member Since: February 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1009
263. StormTrackerScott 3:24 PM GMT on March 01, 2013    
Quoting FLWaterFront:


I have to disagree with you on this. Or maybe you are just saying that the forecast cannot be expected to mention snow for this specific event? If so, then I would not disagree with that, necessarily.

However, the high March sun angle does NOT preclude to possibility of snow occurring in Florida in March, per se. After all, it has happened before and on several occasions. The most notable instance was during the March, 1993 Superstorm, when several inches of accumulation was observed in parts of the Panhandle and snow showers were experienced in various parts of the northern half of the Florida Peninsula.


That was followed by an Arctic Blast not the case this time. Gulf is very warm for this time of year and with WNW winds being so strong then I would right off any chance of snow occuring in FL (except the for NW Panhandle) maybe has a 5% chance of seeing something.
Member Since: February 28, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 908
264. washingtonian115 3:28 PM GMT on March 01, 2013    
I have a important meeting next Wenseday.When is this non factor of a storm going to come into he picture?.


I ask you guys because I see hypuweather and the market channel(TWC) already has doom and gloom for my area.Hypuweather is already saying to prepare for a all out blizzard.lololol.
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265. GeorgiaStormz 3:28 PM GMT on March 01, 2013    
HE SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY AND BECOME MORE CONVECTIVE
IN NATURE DUE TO STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE SURFACE THROUGH 700MB.
THIS IS WHY THE PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGES FROM LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY
NIGHT TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ON SATURDAY.
THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO CREATE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS. WITH TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING ON SATURDAY...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED
TO GRASSY AREAS AND ONCE THE SNOW SHOWER MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...THE
SNOW WILL MELT. ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LESS THAN ONE-HALF
INCH IN MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO 32 DEGREES AND LESS MELTING
WILL OCCUR.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 7129
266. GeorgiaStormz 3:29 PM GMT on March 01, 2013    
Flurriies/ Light Snow on the loose:
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267. GeorgiaStormz 3:33 PM GMT on March 01, 2013    
Is wash rooting for the CMC?:
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268. WunderAlertBot (Admin) 3:34 PM GMT on March 01, 2013    
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
269. FLWaterFront 3:37 PM GMT on March 01, 2013    
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


That was followed by an Arctic Blast not the case this time. Gulf is very warm for this time of year and with WNW winds being so strong then I would right off any chance of snow occuring in FL (except the for NW Panhandle) maybe has a 5% chance of seeinf something.


OK, I would agree with that assessment, just wanted to clarify whether you were speaking of this upcoming event specifically or for the month of March in general.

You also mentioned a bit earlier how warm this winter has been. One big reason for this is that we have not had a single Arctic blast where a big trough set up in the Eastern US and a full-blown Arctic air mass drained southward through the CONUS. Instead, most of the earlier cold events had the heart of the Arctic air mass shunting off to the east over the Northern US, leaving us here in Florida with just the fringe effects. It is rare to go through an entire winter here without experiencing the full effects of at least one major Arctic outbreak.
Member Since: October 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 495
270. BahaHurican 4:48 PM GMT on March 01, 2013    
Interesting setup over the Bahamas today... the wx is nasty, quite unlike March for us...



Not much change expected before Tuesday....
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About JeffMasters
Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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