Category 1 Rusty hits Australia; Chicago gets its biggest snow of the winter

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:53 PM GMT on February 27, 2013

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Tropical Cyclone Rusty rumbled ashore over the coast of northwest Australia near 06 UTC (1 am EST) on Wednesday near the small town of Pardoo, about 110 km east of the largest city in the region, Port Hedland. Rusty peaked at Category 2 strength with 110 mph winds about 12 hours before landfall, but weakened to a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds as it approached the coast, due to interaction with land. Sustained winds as high as 55 mph, gusting to 74 mph, were observed observed at the Port Hedland airport as Rusty made its approach. Rusty has dumped over 7" of rain on the coast, and major flooding is expected on area rivers. No casualties and only minor damage have been reported thus far, and I expect total damage from the storm will be less than $100 million. Rusty is the strongest tropical cyclone to affect Australia so far in the 2012 - 2013 tropical cyclone season.


Figure 1. Tropical Cyclone Rusty at 03:40 UTC on February 27, 2013 as seen by NASA's Terra satellite. At the time, Rusty was two hours from making landfall on the northwest Australian coast near Pardoo as a Category 1 storm with sustained 90 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Radar image of Rusty showing the large cloud-free eye bumping up against the coast of Australia near Pardoo at 05:40 UTC (12:40 am EST) on Wednesday, February 27. image credit: Bureau of Meteorology.

Significant snowstorm continues over Midwest U.S.
Meanwhile, back in the U.S., the second major winter storm in a week continues to blanket the Midwest with significant snows. The snowstorm, dubbed "Rocky", gave Chicago 5.4" of snow, its heaviest snowfall of what has been a quiet winter. According to the latest NOAA Storm Summary, the heaviest snow in the Midwest from Rocky fell in the Texas Panhandle, where 21" was measured in Follett. While the precipitation from the two major winter storms during the past week will not come anywhere close to busting the Midwest drought, the moisture they dropped is probably worth billions to agriculture.


Figure 3. Two-day snowfall amounts from Winter Storm Rocky.

Jeff Masters

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122. VR46L
CPC Still predicting colder than normal weather in both the 6-10 and 8-14 outlook for Eastern half of US


6-10 day


8-14 days

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NYC NWS:

A FAIRLY BENIGN LATE WINTER PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE POTENTIAL THEN EXISTS FOR A MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Today's official announcement of the Mars Inspiration and NASA mission to Mars is a potentially historic moment in the making. If this happens, it would be on pair with missions like Apollo 8. It would be the first time any human has visited another planet, and would be immortalized in history forever.. only overshadowed by when we actually get to land there.
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This could be the big kicker regardless of snow/rain totals. And is the wind here being measured in MPH or KPH?
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Quoting TampaBayStormChaser:
Well well well...GFS showing snow flurries over Tampa Saturday night and Sunday morning...If this verifies I will be pretty amazed.
If it is going to verify, the official NWS forecast will have to be revised fairly soon. They are still suggesting low 40s for lows and low 60s for highs. That is not nearly cold enough for snow.

Even if the as of now officially forecasted low temperature of 35F in Brooksville is reached, that is a cold pocket in this region and temperatures throughout the surrounding area would be warmer.

For now, the NWS is being conservative and is going with the warmest model guidance available for this upcoming cold snap. They must be skeptical of the GFS, which has consistently predicted below freezing nighttime temps over most of the area late in the weekend and on Monday night as well.
Member Since: October 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 767
Here's the lateset.

Riverside, California (Airport)
Updated: 12:53 PM PST on February 27, 2013
Clear
70 °F
Clear
Humidity: 10%
Dew Point: 10 °F
Wind: 14 mph from the NE
Wind Gust: 26 mph
Pressure: 30.17 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 7 out of 16
Pollen: 9.40 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 817 ft

68.8 here forecast 74
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6258
Quoting TheGreatHodag:


and given their recent track record, i think the Euro is more likely to be right. Though of course it is too early to know anything for sure.


I think the Euro has more chances of being right but is still way early to tell. It's a week out run.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

12z Euro keeps it more offshore, I think the GFS may be winning this battle:





yeah I don't want more snow (if it comes to be so)...but still unsure about the GFS
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Yes...that's what I don't want.

Is going to be another Euro-GFS fight..


and given their recent track record, i think the Euro is more likely to be right. Though of course it is too early to know anything for sure.
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Quoting TheGreatHodag:


Yes, the GFS does, but the Euro cranks it up.

12z Euro keeps it more offshore, I think the GFS may be winning this battle:



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Quoting TheGreatHodag:


Yes, the GFS does, but the Euro cranks it up.


Yes...that's what I don't want.

wow, 988 mb so far south??? What would it be when it gets up here near NYC?

Is going to be another Euro-GFS fight..
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting VR46L:


The GFS seems to send what you are looking at out to sea



Yes, the GFS does, but the Euro cranks it up.
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Quoting VR46L:


I will have to try it 4 good recommendations if I ever see it I will get some and try it !!
We have the ground version at Publix here in south Florida... It's not cheap
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109. VR46L
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Actually bison or buffalo which ever you choose to call it is very lean and quite good.


I will have to try it 4 good recommendations if I ever see it I will get some and try it !!
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Quoting VR46L:


I imagine bison would be a tough version of beef ... I hear you on the deer thing but it could be worse . I could never eat Cat or Dog .

Whats the weather like at the moment in CA?
Actually bison or buffalo which ever you choose to call it is very lean and quite good.
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107. VR46L
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Im afraid that little low exiting SC might do something for me here in NYC


"MODELS ARE HINTING AT A COASTAL SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY BUT
THERE IS STILL A LARGE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS ON WHERE THE LOW
ACTUALLY TRACKS"


The GFS seems to send what you are looking at out to sea

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MesoWest Jurupa Valley CA US SGXWFO, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 11:49 AM PST on February 27, 2013
Clear
68 °F
Clear
Humidity: 16%
Dew Point: 20 °F
Wind: 8 mph from the East
Wind Gust: 24.0 mph
Pressure: 30.18 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 7 out of 16
Pollen: 9.40 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 794 ft

This is one hour old. I have 68.4 here and it is somewhat windy.
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6258
Quoting VR46L:


I imagine bison would be a tough version of beef ... I hear you on the deer thing but it could be worse . I could never eat Cat or Dog .

Whats the weather like at the moment in CA?


Bison is a much leaner cut of meat. Very tasty and better for you than beef.
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103. VR46L
Quoting PedleyCA:


I have tasted Deer and it was OK, but again Bambi.... Nver had Bison but I hear that is good and that is available here if you ask for it.
Cooking a beef roast right now. Crock pot.....


I imagine bison would be a tough version of beef ... I hear you on the deer thing but it could be worse . I could never eat Cat or Dog .

Whats the weather like at the moment in CA?
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Im afraid that little low exiting SC might do something for me here in NYC


"MODELS ARE HINTING AT A COASTAL SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY BUT
THERE IS STILL A LARGE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS ON WHERE THE LOW
ACTUALLY TRACKS"
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting VR46L:


As far as I know Fowl is considered white meat , never had rabbit or deer which I understand is very commonly eaten in the US

LOL ! I think it was my guilty conscience that was saying its really bad to eat something so cute but its beautiful IMO but can be greasy .


I have tasted Deer and it was OK, but again Bambi.... Nver had Bison but I hear that is good and that is available here if you ask for it.
Cooking a beef roast right now. Crock pot.....
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6258
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeu ro 500mbHGHTNA192.gif

00Z euro showing a 989 mb low at the mouth of the Potomac in 192 hours.
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Think everyone was a little tired of the gloomy winter. :)

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Earthquakes in Oklahoma. As an Austinite, I find this quite amusing...lol!
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
I have eaten all, Lamb is fatty, stick with Goat if you like nice wild and red meat.


Try Bison it is delish
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Maybe what will be interesting to see is when all of this actually starts is how much colder it will get. Usually down here when there is cloud cover it acts as a blanket that keeps us warmer. However, if we have clear skies by midnight and it allows us to cool off enough before the clouds move in we really do have a shot before sun rise of seeing some flakes.


I will be up to see what happens and if any frozen presip falls I will take Pics and post here Monday Morning.
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Quoting PedleyCA:


Didn't say that. I don't think I even know what Lamb tastes like. It is probably too expensive. I was just reading an article about various meats and it said that Beef, Pork, Lamb and Pork were red meats. That's funny isn't Pork being advertised as the other White meat? That would be Rabbit. I have eaten that. My Aunt and Uncle used to raise rabbits for food. Eating bunnies is probably frowned on too. ..... lol


As far as I know Fowl is considered white meat , never had rabbit or deer which I understand is very commonly eaten in the US

LOL ! I think it was my guilty conscience that was saying its really bad to eat something so cute but its beautiful IMO but can be greasy .
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Quoting PedleyCA:


Didn't say that. I don't think I even know what Lamb tastes like. It is probably too expensive. I was just reading an article about various meats and it said that Beef, Pork, Lamb and Pork were red meats. That's funny isn't Pork being advertised as the other White meat? That would be Rabbit. I have eaten that. My Aunt and Uncle used to raise rabbits for food. Eating bunnies is probably frowned on too. ..... lol
I have eaten all, Lamb is fatty, stick with Goat if you like nice wild and red meat.
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Quoting robintampabay:


Hey GT,

I think it could start a little earlier in Brooksville.
Maybe what will be interesting to see is when all of this actually starts is how much colder it will get. Usually down here when there is cloud cover it acts as a blanket that keeps us warmer. However, if we have clear skies by midnight and it allows us to cool off enough before the clouds move in we really do have a shot before sun rise of seeing some flakes.
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Quoting VR46L:


LOL !! I know its bad !


Didn't say that. I don't think I even know what Lamb tastes like. It is probably too expensive. I was just reading an article about various meats and it said that Beef, Pork, Lamb and Pork were red meats. That's funny isn't Pork being advertised as the other White meat? That would be Rabbit. I have eaten that. My Aunt and Uncle used to raise rabbits for food. Eating bunnies is probably frowned on too. ..... lol
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6258
Nite boys and girls... put those clucks to bed and ooooooooh maybe spend the money on a leg of lamb..... ooooo, that taste with rosemary and garlic and some fresh mint gelly. Can I dare say orgas... well, I will be good and say organic but some can fill it the blanks! LOL
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This one makes it seem more ominous and perhaps even accumulations?

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Quoting GTcooliebai:
If it could just get cold enough Saturday into Sunday Morning the precip. will be around for it to snow, so now it is all dependent on how low it will go. Dennis Phillips is saying sometime around 4 am. is our best chance.


Hey GT,

I think it could start a little earlier in Brooksville.
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Quoting JustPlantIt:
Rainy... just like the Ire.



It hasn't rained here in 13 days ...and I am loving it makes such a change from the awful year we had last year


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12z GFS

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Quoting VR46L:


Having one on Sunday love my Sunday roast


Anyways

How is the weather in your parts at the moment?
Rainy... just like the Ire.
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Quoting JustPlantIt:
Make me hungry for a leg!!!


Having one on Sunday love my Sunday roast


Anyways

How is the weather in your parts at the moment?
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Quoting JustPlantIt:
Make me hungry for a leg!!!
You either love it or hate it! My ex hated the smell of it cooking, thankfully my girls love it!

Little things in life that can make you happy! Yup a lamb leg roasting.... oh
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Quoting VR46L:


Yeah the bute thing is scary!! I like beef as a rule but cant face mince or ready meals these days .. But I love lamb Had lamb chops tonight they were beautiful !! I think its an Irish thing. some people in the rest of the world cant understand how you can eat something so cute but you just have to be pragmatic the taste is just beautiful .
Make me hungry for a leg!!!
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Quoting PedleyCA:
Baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa


LOL !! I know its bad !
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Baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6258
Quoting eddye:
The strong cold front will be south of the area on Sunday allowing for
high pressure to build into the Florida Peninsula Sunday night from
the north. This will allow for mostly clear skies over the area on
Sunday and Sunday night. The winds will also become light and
variable over the land areas Sunday night. Therefore...highs on
Sunday will again be in the 60s over all of South Florida...as
lows will be in the middle to upper 30s over the interior areas

wow cold mid 2 upper 30
If it could just get cold enough Saturday into Sunday Morning the precip. will be around for it to snow, so now it is all dependent on how low it will go. Dennis Phillips is saying sometime around 4 am. is our best chance.
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Quoting JustPlantIt:
Yes... I know, my cousin lives in Co. Down, N. Ireland. Don't eat the beef. Horses are injected with antibiotics that are lethal to people. I think she said it was Bute???? Not sure. You NEED TO LOOK THIS UP. Stay away from beef unless it is a farm that you are familliar with. My personal fav... is lamb, and I even like mutton. Guess it's in my heritage to love it!!!!!!!!!!! And Oooooo do I know how to cook it... again my heritage!!!!!!!!!!!! YUM


Yeah the bute thing is scary!! I like beef as a rule but cant face mince or ready meals these days .. But I love lamb Had lamb chops tonight they were beautiful !! I think its an Irish thing. some people in the rest of the world cant understand how you can eat something so cute but you just have to be pragmatic the taste is just beautiful .

Another beautiful day here but temps are droping close to freezing now
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Quoting VR46L:




Try being from Europe at the Moment ! Mixing Beef with Horse and it has effected nearly every ready meal that is supposed to be beef ... At the moment I cant look at processed Beef without wondering !!


Yes... I know, my cousin lives in Co. Down, N. Ireland. Don't eat the beef. Horses are injected with antibiotics that are lethal to people. I think she said it was Bute???? Not sure. You NEED TO LOOK THIS UP. Stay away from beef unless it is a farm that you are familiar with. My personal fav... is lamb, and I even like mutton. Guess it's in my heritage to love it!!!!!!!!!!! And Oooooo do I know how to cook it... again my heritage!!!!!!!!!!!! YUM
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The strong cold front will be south of the area on Sunday allowing for
high pressure to build into the Florida Peninsula Sunday night from
the north. This will allow for mostly clear skies over the area on
Sunday and Sunday night. The winds will also become light and
variable over the land areas Sunday night. Therefore...highs on
Sunday will again be in the 60s over all of South Florida...as
lows will be in the middle to upper 30s over the interior areas

wow cold mid 2 upper 30
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Quoting JustPlantIt:
Thanks... wish more people would pay attention to what is being sold and thrown down our throats!




Try being from Europe at the Moment ! Mixing Beef with Horse and it has effected nearly every ready meal that is supposed to be beef ... At the moment I cant look at processed Beef without wondering !!


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Temp dropping here in Mid TN.. snow "micro-flurries" starting, kids are ready for a snow day, not sure that's gonna happen this week...
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Rusty Losing strength at a rather quick pace

Rainbow

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Quoting JustPlantIt:
Thanks... wish more people would pay attention to what is being sold and thrown down our throats!


It is informative on how things work and how brittle everything we take for granted can be taken away in short time
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It looks like the dry weather that Puerto Rico has been thru in the past few weeks will end by next Monday as a cold front arrives bringing scattered showers.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
239 PM AST WED FEB 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH AT
LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DOMINATES THE LOCAL AREA. SURFACE FRONT WILL REACH THE LOCAL
ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN
BREAK DOWN AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A FAIR AND STABLE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY. HOWEVER...UNDER THE PREVAILING EAST TO EAST
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW...STILL EXPECT A FEW ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TWO
WHICH WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS WEST AND NORTHWEST PUERTO
RICO EACH DAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
MEANDERS EASTWARD. A WETTER PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WORK WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL
REACH THE MONA PASSAGE MONDAY AND MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL LOCAL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS FOR THE NEXT 6 HRS WILL REMAIN
FROM EAST SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS ACROSS TAF SITES IN PR AND 10
TO 15 KTS FOR TIST...TISX...AND TKPK.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE
WIND FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 85 72 83 / 0 0 0 10
STT 72 83 72 84 / 0 0 10 10
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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