Category 1 Rusty hits Australia; Chicago gets its biggest snow of the winter

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:53 PM GMT on February 27, 2013

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Tropical Cyclone Rusty rumbled ashore over the coast of northwest Australia near 06 UTC (1 am EST) on Wednesday near the small town of Pardoo, about 110 km east of the largest city in the region, Port Hedland. Rusty peaked at Category 2 strength with 110 mph winds about 12 hours before landfall, but weakened to a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds as it approached the coast, due to interaction with land. Sustained winds as high as 55 mph, gusting to 74 mph, were observed observed at the Port Hedland airport as Rusty made its approach. Rusty has dumped over 7" of rain on the coast, and major flooding is expected on area rivers. No casualties and only minor damage have been reported thus far, and I expect total damage from the storm will be less than $100 million. Rusty is the strongest tropical cyclone to affect Australia so far in the 2012 - 2013 tropical cyclone season.


Figure 1. Tropical Cyclone Rusty at 03:40 UTC on February 27, 2013 as seen by NASA's Terra satellite. At the time, Rusty was two hours from making landfall on the northwest Australian coast near Pardoo as a Category 1 storm with sustained 90 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Radar image of Rusty showing the large cloud-free eye bumping up against the coast of Australia near Pardoo at 05:40 UTC (12:40 am EST) on Wednesday, February 27. image credit: Bureau of Meteorology.

Significant snowstorm continues over Midwest U.S.
Meanwhile, back in the U.S., the second major winter storm in a week continues to blanket the Midwest with significant snows. The snowstorm, dubbed "Rocky", gave Chicago 5.4" of snow, its heaviest snowfall of what has been a quiet winter. According to the latest NOAA Storm Summary, the heaviest snow in the Midwest from Rocky fell in the Texas Panhandle, where 21" was measured in Follett. While the precipitation from the two major winter storms during the past week will not come anywhere close to busting the Midwest drought, the moisture they dropped is probably worth billions to agriculture.


Figure 3. Two-day snowfall amounts from Winter Storm Rocky.

Jeff Masters

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172. mitthbevnuruodo
12:12 AM GMT on February 28, 2013
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:




I did not make my point clear..

I was going ONLY as for latitude... I know there are much more things involved for this event to come to work together for this to happen over there in Flo.

It sounded like that was an offensive comparison for you VR46L by the way... did I misunderstand?


I saw what you meant...but also meaning, only could compare with N FL though I reckon too?
Member Since: October 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 841
171. AussieStorm
12:12 AM GMT on February 28, 2013
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi Aussie. Cyclones do that normally and this is another excample as here in PR when Hortense moved thru, around 23 inches of rain fell in the eastern part of the island causing massive flooding. Here is the report.

Link


I think it was a bit of a tongue in cheek comment with that photo.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
170. Jedkins01
12:11 AM GMT on February 28, 2013
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


look at this, I know it's non sequitur





100 inches? That is an insane!
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7406
169. washingtonian115
12:10 AM GMT on February 28, 2013
Quoting AussieStorm:
@StuRap Stu Rapley
Turns out cyclones tend to drop a bit of water, Yarrie Station, #TCrusty

Funy that the water is a "rusty" color.lol.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16906
168. mitthbevnuruodo
12:07 AM GMT on February 28, 2013
Quoting AussieStorm:

It was getting sheared big time from Rusty's outflow, now that Rusty has moved away, TD 18 could get it's act together.


Yes gosh...can just see the shear in the sat images you posted!
Member Since: October 12, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 841
167. trHUrrIXC5MMX
12:04 AM GMT on February 28, 2013
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi Aussie. Cyclones do that normally and this is another excample as here in PR when Hortense moved thru, around 23 inches of rain fell in the eastern part of the island causing massive flooding. Here is the report.

Link


look at this, I know it's non sequitur



Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
166. Tropicsweatherpr
11:55 PM GMT on February 27, 2013
Quoting AussieStorm:
@StuRap Stu Rapley
Turns out cyclones tend to drop a bit of water, Yarrie Station, #TCrusty



Hi Aussie. Cyclones do that normally and this is another excample as here in PR when Hortense moved thru, around 23 inches of rain fell in the eastern part of the island causing massive flooding. Here is the report.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14228
165. wxchaser97
11:55 PM GMT on February 27, 2013
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
@ Chaser97

Did you have school today, you mentioned many schools around your area were shut, yours?

Sadly, I had school today. Over 650 school closings today, but my school district felt like staying open.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7940
164. trHUrrIXC5MMX
11:52 PM GMT on February 27, 2013
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
163. trHUrrIXC5MMX
11:50 PM GMT on February 27, 2013
@ Chaser97

Did you have school today, you mentioned many schools around your area were shut, yours?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
162. AussieStorm
11:46 PM GMT on February 27, 2013
@StuRap Stu Rapley
Turns out cyclones tend to drop a bit of water, Yarrie Station, #TCrusty

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
161. AussieStorm
11:45 PM GMT on February 27, 2013
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


lol..off road down the hill. That was not such a good road to play around on...

Nope. You guys love watching these police chases. #weird
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
160. trHUrrIXC5MMX
11:42 PM GMT on February 27, 2013
Quoting AussieStorm:

Some of those islands are but that was end of next month so I might not happen at all.

Police chase in Arizona


lol..off road down the hill. That was not such a good road to play around on...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
159. AussieStorm
11:34 PM GMT on February 27, 2013
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I see, fortunate Eastern Australia this year then (unlike when Yasi came around from the east that season) ...some of those Islands there to the east of the storm are densely populated if I'm not mistaken....

Some of those islands are but that was end of next month so I might not happen at all.

Police chase in Arizona
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
158. trHUrrIXC5MMX
11:31 PM GMT on February 27, 2013
Quoting 1900hurricane:

New Orleans is not Florida though. As Jedkins mentioned earlier, the state is nearly surrounded by insulating warm ocean waters while New Orleans is not. It takes a very special type of event to get snow to fall along the peninsula of Florida.


Quoting VR46L:


Careful!!
Did you imply New Orleans was in Florida You will be in alot of folks bad books , Both Florida and Louisiana...

LOL



I did not make my point clear..

I was going ONLY as for latitude... I know there are much more things involved for this event to come to work together for this to happen over there in Flo.

It sounded like that was an offensive comparison for you VR46L by the way... did I misunderstand?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
157. Jedkins01
11:29 PM GMT on February 27, 2013
Quoting robintampabay:



Brooksville low suppose to be right around 32-36 Saturday night. Fingers crossed



If any precip manages to reach your region the Brooksville area would have the highest shot at seeing snow. Not just because of colder lows but also higher elevation and not much marine influence.
Most of Pinellas is influenced by the water and ranges from a few feet in elevation to near 20 ft at the greatest. Much of the Brooksville area rises 200 to 250 ft in elevation.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7406
156. trHUrrIXC5MMX
11:28 PM GMT on February 27, 2013
Quoting AussieStorm:

Moves east. Seem's the pattern this year. Some years east some years west. This year seems to be an east moving year.


I see, fortunate Eastern Australia this year then (unlike when Yasi came around from the east that season) ...some of those Islands there to the east of the storm are densely populated if I'm not mistaken....
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
155. 1900hurricane
11:28 PM GMT on February 27, 2013
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Snow in Florida...not so rare..

New Orleans in 2008 got 5" from this

New Orleans is not Florida though. As Jedkins mentioned earlier, the state is nearly surrounded by insulating warm ocean waters while New Orleans is not. It takes a very special type of event to get snow to fall along the peninsula of Florida.
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
154. beell
11:28 PM GMT on February 27, 2013
Quoting TheGreatHodag:


This could be the big kicker regardless of snow/rain totals. And is the wind here being measured in MPH or KPH?


Oooh, I'll take this one!
Knots.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 142 Comments: 16502
153. VR46L
11:27 PM GMT on February 27, 2013
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Snow in Florida...not so rare..

New Orleans in 2008 got 5" from this


Careful!!
Did you imply New Orleans was in Florida ? You will be in alot of folks bad books , Both Florida and Louisiana...

LOL

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6893
152. AussieStorm
11:25 PM GMT on February 27, 2013
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


the top picture...where is the storm moving to?
would be dangerous if it moves westwards...

Moves east. Seem's the pattern this year. Some years east some years west. This year seems to be an east moving year.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
151. trHUrrIXC5MMX
11:21 PM GMT on February 27, 2013
Quoting AussieStorm:


This is much further out than 2 weeks



Possible triplets of tropical lows.



That's all I can see.


the top picture...where is the storm moving to?
would be dangerous if it moves westwards...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Storm totals ended up being crazy high for Tallahassee. This area saw between 10 and 12 inches of rain from Friday into early Tuesday AM!

That should put a big dent in the drought :)

The grass is already greener out back.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7406
Snow in Florida...not so rare.. Just for latitude proposes...

New Orleans in 2008 got 5" from this
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Here's my thinking regarding temperatures during March for the United States:

The blocking pattern were currently in should promote generally cooler-than-average temperatures across a large part of the United States during the first part of March, as the CPC indicates in their forecast. However, by the middle portion of the month, a big pattern change and warm up is expected to occur. This warm up should be quite substantial according to model depictions, making it hard for the month to average below average. For the North, however, the brunt of the rise in temperatures will stay away, and cold air the first part of the month should mean a below average March overall.

Could be wrong.

I'd say you're probably on the right track. This month will go down somewhere in the middle of the pack so far as Februarys go; it's been a pretty chilly one, and one of the coolest in the U.S. since late in 2011. (It should be noted, however, that even with the current cool weather, record highs still outnumber record lows for the year to date by 6,142 to 2,859, or 2.15:1. And while the U.S. has been cool, many other areas around the world--namely northern Europe, and much of Central/South America--have been mostly at or above normal, so globally, February should continue the trend we've seen.)

Anyway, the CPC's one-month (March) and three-month (March/April/May) temperature outlooks:

cpc

cpc
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5.1 earthquake off the Oregon coast:

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Quoting Jedkins01:



If any frozen precip of any kind does manage to fall this time around in Florida it will for sure be snow. Why? Last time it was mostly sleet because it was an overrunning event which of course means a warmer moist layer that is elevated above colder dry air.

This time around, any precip that falls will be as a result of gulf effect showers. It is for the same reason that lake effect snow occurs on the great lakes, very cold air aloft moving over the relatively warm water along with short wave energy rotating around the deep trough creates instability and thus showers.
This situation means no elevated warm layer present to cause sleet or rain at temps near freezing. In fact, the temperatures will be so cold just above the surface that it would likely only take temps as low as 35 to 38 to start seeing snow.

However what I doubt is the ability for temps to be that cold near the coast. If it was a calm clear night with very dry air, it seems more reasonable. However throw in clouds and moisture moving over warm waters along with a northwest flow and temps any colder than 42 seems very low in coastal regions.

If this same pattern had occurred into our area in January of the 2010 winter. I would actually argue that accumulating snow would be a reasonable forecast.


That winter was ideal to get snow, and snow accumulation in Central Florida because it was an extremely cold winter. The normally well insulating warm water dipped down well into the 40's from constant cold outbreaks. Unfortunately the event that brought sleet was the type of event we didn't want, warm overrunning.



In this case, I don't see any snow happening unless there are a few more substantial showers that can put down enough precip to bring temps near the surface a lot colder from both cold air descending and from evaporative cooling.

Otherwise the warm gulf waters to me will not allow any snow. Of course, the possibility does exist a few more substantial showers will popup.

Its fun to talk about for sure but even though the GFS keeps showing snow almost ever model run I'd say the chance is still no more than 5% that anyone will see snow.

Sadly if any snow happens in my hometown I won't be there to see experience it :(





Brooksville low suppose to be right around 32-36 Saturday night. Fingers crossed
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
now Northern and Northeastern Australia have to be aware for early March


This is much further out than 2 weeks



Possible triplets of tropical lows.



That's all I can see.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting FLWaterFront:


If this were January instead of early March (this upcoming weekend) then there would be the possibility of a significant snow event with this setup.

Don't forget that you had sleet just three years ago in Brooksville and a few flurries thrown in for good measure. Further north from there, it was a bit heavier. We had sleet here in West Pasco County for a couple of hours or so one night in 2010. But again, that was in January or early February. It can happen even in March though, if everything comes together just right.



If any frozen precip of any kind does manage to fall this time around in Florida it will for sure be snow. Why? Last time it was mostly sleet because it was an overrunning event which of course means a warmer moist layer that is elevated above colder dry air.

This time around, any precip that falls will be as a result of gulf effect showers. It is for the same reason that lake effect snow occurs on the great lakes, very cold air aloft moving over the relatively warm water along with short wave energy rotating around the deep trough creates instability and thus showers.
This situation means no elevated warm layer present to cause sleet or rain at temps near freezing. In fact, the temperatures will be so cold just above the surface that it would likely only take temps as low as 35 to 38 to start seeing snow.

However what I doubt is the ability for temps to be that cold near the coast. If it was a calm clear night with very dry air, it seems more reasonable. However throw in clouds and moisture moving over warm waters along with a northwest flow and temps any colder than 42 seems very low in coastal regions.

If this same pattern had occurred into our area in January of the 2010 winter. I would actually argue that accumulating snow would be a reasonable forecast.


That winter was ideal to get snow, and snow accumulation in Central Florida because it was an extremely cold winter. The normally well insulating warm water dipped down well into the 40's from constant cold outbreaks. Unfortunately the event that brought sleet was the type of event we didn't want, warm overrunning.



In this case, I don't see any snow happening unless there are a few more substantial showers that can put down enough precip to bring temps near the surface a lot colder from both cold air descending and from evaporative cooling.

Otherwise the warm gulf waters to me will not allow any snow. Of course, the possibility does exist a few more substantial showers will popup.

Its fun to talk about for sure but even though the GFS keeps showing snow almost ever model run I'd say the chance is still no more than 5% that anyone will see snow.

Sadly if any snow happens in my hometown I won't be there to see experience it :(


Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7406
now Northern and Northeastern Australia have to be aware for early March
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting VR46L:
I will be honest had not been following it just spied on the rambb site and looked to me like it just spurted into life ... thought it looked cool but tiny

It was getting sheared big time from Rusty's outflow, now that Rusty has moved away, TD 18 could get it's act together.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
141. VR46L
Quoting AussieStorm:

TD18 is just a naked swirl with it's convection to it's west.



The BOM have dropped it. No longer issuing and advisories.


It seems to be establishing some convection but I just like watching the things
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6893
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


owww I forgot about that one.. Did it die? I don't see it on wu's site..

TD18 is just a naked swirl with it's convection to it's west.





The BOM have dropped it. No longer issuing advisories.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting AussieStorm:

Well, rusty has practically dried up.



ohh I see. Forgot to check the water vapor sat before I even asked what I asked.

Actually, can we say "Practically Rusty got rusted" (?).
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
138. VR46L
I will be honest had not been following it just spied on the rambb site and looked to me like it just spurted into life ... thought it looked cool but tiny
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6893
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:

remember Oswald? The huge flooding that came after. To me that was unexpected...do you think that is possible with this storm...I know it's in a different location, but, just asking.

Well, rusty has practically dried up.

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting VR46L:
Birth of Tropical Cyclone 18 Pretty cool to see

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)from RAMMB

Loop embedded



owww I forgot about that one.. Did it die? I don't see it on wu's site..
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
135. VR46L
Tropical Cyclone 18 Pretty cool to see

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)from RAMMB

Loop embedded

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6893
Quoting AussieStorm:
Bye Bye Rusty. Thanks for coming.


remember Oswald? The huge flooding that came after. To me that was unexpected...do you think that is possible with this storm...I know it's in a different location, but, just asking.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Bye Bye Rusty. Thanks for coming.

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Here's my thinking regarding temperatures during March for the United States:

The blocking pattern were currently in should promote generally cooler-than-average temperatures across a large part of the United States during the first part of March, as the CPC indicates in their forecast. However, by the middle portion of the month, a big pattern change and warm up is expected to occur. This warm up should be quite substantial according to model depictions, making it hard for the month to average below average. For the North, however, the brunt of the rise in temperatures will stay away, and cold air the first part of the month should mean a below average March overall.

Could be wrong.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31919
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Good morning Aussie..it's 9:35 AM EST there.

Morning, Your correct 9:37am
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting AussieStorm:


You might want to revise that Dr Masters. Pardoo Weather Station received 250mm(9.84in) from 12:00 to 15:00 yesterday 27/02/2013. Also at 15:00 Pardoo weather station observed a MSL pressure of 959hPa. We'll have to wait till 09:00WST for the 24hr rainfall figures to come in, if the wx station is back up and running that is as the 15:00 was the last observation.

Latest Weather Observations for Pardoo


Good morning Aussie..it's 9:35 AM EST there.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting JeffMasters:

Rusty has dumped over 7" of rain on the coast


You might want to revise that Dr Masters. Pardoo Weather Station received 250mm(9.84in) from 12:00 to 15:00 yesterday 27/02/2013. Also at 15:00 Pardoo weather station observed a MSL pressure of 959hPa. We'll have to wait till 09:00WST for the 24hr rainfall figures to come in, if the wx station is back up and running that is as the 15:00 was the last observation.

Latest Weather Observations for Pardoo

Telfer has received 172.8mm(6.8in) from Rusty
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15935
Quoting riblet2000:
Again with the idiotic storm names and now you're not even "crediting" your Weather Channel masters for this disgrace. Hey, if you are going to dilute your credibility and embarrass yourself like this at least make some money. Sell the naming rights. That way we'll see Winter Storm Tide! Winter Storm Bud Light! Winter Storm BMW! Winter Storm Summer's Eve! Winter Storm Godaddy!

Time to get back to your roots or fold the tent.

woah, lets not go there
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sun about to rise over Rusty

Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Article in Post Dispatch says barges are running with full loads again as river has come up about 9 feet from Dec./Jan. lows. Let's hope it doesn't get that low again for a long time.
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Again with the idiotic storm names and now you're not even "crediting" your Weather Channel masters for this disgrace. Hey, if you are going to dilute your credibility and embarrass yourself like this at least make some money. Sell the naming rights. That way we'll see Winter Storm Tide! Winter Storm Bud Light! Winter Storm BMW! Winter Storm Summer's Eve! Winter Storm Godaddy!

Time to get back to your roots or fold the tent.
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Quoting TampaBayStormChaser:
Well well well...GFS showing snow flurries over Tampa Saturday night and Sunday morning...If this verifies I will be pretty amazed.


Well I know, someone mentioned snow over North Central Texas with the same system. However, we will be too dry and it will not reach the ground.
From the Forecast Discussion...
"FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LIFT FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME SNOW FROM CLOUD BASES AROUND 7000FT. MOST OF THIS PRECIP WOULD LIKELY BE VIRGA GIVEN A VERY DRY LAYER BELOW 800MB."
Link

But we can hope, right? Tampa? That would be pretty amazing!
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Inspiration Mars Flight video Just something I found browsing youtube.
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122. VR46L
CPC Still predicting colder than normal weather in both the 6-10 and 8-14 outlook for Eastern half of US


6-10 day


8-14 days

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6893

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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