Category 1 Rusty hits Australia; Chicago gets its biggest snow of the winter

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:53 PM GMT on February 27, 2013

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Tropical Cyclone Rusty rumbled ashore over the coast of northwest Australia near 06 UTC (1 am EST) on Wednesday near the small town of Pardoo, about 110 km east of the largest city in the region, Port Hedland. Rusty peaked at Category 2 strength with 110 mph winds about 12 hours before landfall, but weakened to a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds as it approached the coast, due to interaction with land. Sustained winds as high as 55 mph, gusting to 74 mph, were observed observed at the Port Hedland airport as Rusty made its approach. Rusty has dumped over 7" of rain on the coast, and major flooding is expected on area rivers. No casualties and only minor damage have been reported thus far, and I expect total damage from the storm will be less than $100 million. Rusty is the strongest tropical cyclone to affect Australia so far in the 2012 - 2013 tropical cyclone season.


Figure 1. Tropical Cyclone Rusty at 03:40 UTC on February 27, 2013 as seen by NASA's Terra satellite. At the time, Rusty was two hours from making landfall on the northwest Australian coast near Pardoo as a Category 1 storm with sustained 90 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Radar image of Rusty showing the large cloud-free eye bumping up against the coast of Australia near Pardoo at 05:40 UTC (12:40 am EST) on Wednesday, February 27. image credit: Bureau of Meteorology.

Significant snowstorm continues over Midwest U.S.
Meanwhile, back in the U.S., the second major winter storm in a week continues to blanket the Midwest with significant snows. The snowstorm, dubbed "Rocky", gave Chicago 5.4" of snow, its heaviest snowfall of what has been a quiet winter. According to the latest NOAA Storm Summary, the heaviest snow in the Midwest from Rocky fell in the Texas Panhandle, where 21" was measured in Follett. While the precipitation from the two major winter storms during the past week will not come anywhere close to busting the Midwest drought, the moisture they dropped is probably worth billions to agriculture.


Figure 3. Two-day snowfall amounts from Winter Storm Rocky.

Jeff Masters

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322. VR46L
Quoting DookiePBC:
I would definitely hate to lose my avatar. It is weather related...because if you see my avatar near where you live there is surely a hurricane coming!


Yours is an exceptionally cool avi !!
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6842
Asperatus clouds in New Zealand:

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320. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
319. eddye
i see snow 2
Member Since: August 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1207
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
75HR snow!



thats not snow



you overe re act way too march
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Strange trough in 10 days:




But it has a wide warm sector:


I'm rooting for it to bring severe wx
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12z GFS back on board for snow in SE Texas. NWS has been mentioning it in the forecast discussion as of late. Nothing will stick to the ground but could see some flurries

39 hour:


42 hour:


45 hour:
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75HR snow!
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4423
Quoting FLWaterFront:


Computer models only project, they do not tell you exactly what is going to happen. That can only be known once it happens. The models often disagree with one another, at least until we are well within the 48 hour time frame of the projected conditions. Even then there can be divergences.

Bear in mind too that the National Weather Service has never yet predicted any snow showers, snow flurries or even isolated snow flakes anywhere in Florida for this upcoming cold air outbreak. In fact, they have consistently painted it as more of a cool weather outbreak with predicted high and low temps well above the range projected by the GFS model. And that would not or will not change until within 48 hours of the projected time frame, if even then.

This is still a very inexact science and yet people understandably often get carried away with the forecast models, as if they were guaranteeing that a certain type of weather was going to unfold on a certain date and in any given location. I say that this is understandable because we have all been trained to read official pronouncements as something akin to gospel, even though this is far from true.


While I do agree with your overall statement. The bolded part is false. The NWS in Mobile/Pensacola has officially included flurries Saturday morning in Florida counties north of I-10Link
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Quoting eddye:
rob latest gfs


It is running now
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 151
Does anyone know how much snow kansas city got from rocky?
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ehhh:

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310. eddye
rob latest gfs
Member Since: August 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1207
Quoting eddye:
rob so your saying it possible


Computer models only project, they do not tell you exactly what is going to happen. That can only be known once it happens. The models often disagree with one another, at least until we are well within the 48 hour time frame of the projected conditions. Even then there can be divergences.

Bear in mind too that the National Weather Service has never yet predicted any snow showers, snow flurries or even isolated snow flakes anywhere in Florida for this upcoming cold air outbreak. In fact, they have consistently painted it as more of a cool weather outbreak with predicted high and low temps well above the range projected by the GFS model. And that would not or will not change until within 48 hours of the projected time frame, if even then.

This is still a very inexact science and yet people understandably often get carried away with the forecast models, as if they were guaranteeing that a certain type of weather was going to unfold on a certain date and in any given location. I say that this is understandable because we have all been trained to read official pronouncements as something akin to gospel, even though this is far from true.
Member Since: October 15, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 715
Quoting DookiePBC:
I would definitely hate to lose my avatar. It is weather related...because if you see my avatar near where you live there is surely a hurricane coming!


LOL!!!
Member Since: January 9, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 810
307. eddye
rob so your saying it possible
Member Since: August 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1207
I would definitely hate to lose my avatar. It is weather related...because if you see my avatar near where you live there is surely a hurricane coming!
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Quoting eddye:
wow rob they really raised it because before they showed near davie low 40 and upper 30


I don't doubt that it will change with the 12z run coming out soon.
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 151
Quoting hydrus:
Greetings ancient one.


Hi, hy!
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Quoting VR46L:


I agree !! I would become less familiar with people if I cant recognise an avi and hundreds of hurricane avis are not going to stand out ... I would not like to lose my avi , it took me long enough to settle on one that I think represents me!
Agreed.
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302. eddye
wow rob they really raised it because before they showed near davie low 40 and upper 30
Member Since: August 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1207
Quoting robintampabay:


38-45 degrees


Merci Beaucoup. :-)
Member Since: January 9, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 810
12Z is now coming out!!
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4423
Quoting WunderGirl12:


How about Central Florida??


38-45 degrees
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 151
Quoting robintampabay:
30's in my area in Brooksville


How about Central Florida??
Member Since: January 9, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 810
Quoting Grothar:


See wu mail
Greetings ancient one.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20547
296. VR46L
Quoting WunderGirl12:


Thanks VR46L! :-) I do LOVE nature, since it is part of us all.


Yes it sure is !
I think its a love of nature that has people hanging at a weather blog !
Cant think of any other reason !


Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6842
30's in my area in Brooksville
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 151
Quoting eddye:
robin does it still show very cold air four south fla



Call me Rob, Low's of 40's south of I-4 50's south of I-75.
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 151
Quoting VR46L:


AH you young ones change your minds so much . But I like your floral avi. Shows a sweet cute nature, and a love of nature!!


Thanks VR46L! :-) I do LOVE nature, since it is part of us all.
Member Since: January 9, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 810
292. eddye
robin does it still show very cold air four south fla
Member Since: August 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1207
291. VR46L
Quoting WunderGirl12:


And I think it represents you quite well in fact! ;-) I can't seem to stick to one, so I change pretty quickly. lol


AH you young ones change your minds so much . But I like your floral avi. Shows a sweet cute nature, and a love of nature!!
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6842
Quoting robintampabay:


Eddye the 00Z run from this morning backed off snow for Florida for this weekend.


Darn. :'-(
Member Since: January 9, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 810
Quoting VR46L:


I agree !! I would become less familiar with people if I cant recognise an avi and hundreds of hurricane avis are not going to stand out ... I would not like to lose my avi , it took me long enough to settle on one that I think represents me!


And I think it represents you quite well in fact! ;-) I can't seem to stick to one, so I change pretty quickly. lol
Member Since: January 9, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 810
Quoting eddye:
wundergirl 12 snow in south fla and tampa this weekend


Eddye the 00Z run from this morning backed off snow for Florida for this weekend.
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 151
287. eddye
wundergirl 12 mail me
Member Since: August 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1207
286. VR46L
Quoting washingtonian115:
Avatars also make you stand out.That's how I became familiar with some bloggers on here.


I agree !! I would become less familiar with people if I cant recognise an avi and hundreds of hurricane avis are not going to stand out ... I would not like to lose my avi , it took me long enough to settle on one that I think represents me!
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6842
Quoting FunnelVortex:


That is why i chose this animated hurricane radar icon.


And I chose my flowers. :-P
Member Since: January 9, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 810
Quoting washingtonian115:
Avatars also make you stand out.That's how I became familiar with some bloggers on here.


That is why i chose this animated hurricane radar icon.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I have a quick non-weather related question for anybody that knows.

Why did the United States raise the tariff on goods for trading with Europe in the late 1920s?


See wu mail
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282. eddye
wundergirl 12 snow in south fla and tampa this weekend
Member Since: August 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1207
Quoting washingtonian115:
Avatars also make you stand out.That's how I became familiar with some bloggers on here.


The only way I can read and see any of the comments that Aussie or Rob posts is through thier avatars. Thats the only reason I can catch thier posts! The same applies to you too wash! :-P
Member Since: January 9, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 810
Quoting FunnelVortex:


We should be able to express ourselves with our avatars.
Avatars also make you stand out.That's how I became familiar with some bloggers on here.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I have a quick non-weather related question for anybody that knows.

Why did the United States raise the tariff on goods for trading with Europe in the late 1920s?


TA, does this have anything to do with the Smoot - Hawley Tariff Act?? :-/ I might be able to give you a link, and thats about it.
Member Since: January 9, 2011 Posts: 23 Comments: 810
I have a quick non-weather related question for anybody that knows.

Why did the United States raise the tariff on goods for trading with Europe in the late 1920s?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Exactly.I think that admin are trying to simply make a prime example out of people. The reason why I have such avatars is that it can be easy to spot my comments so I can easly go back and look at some things. I didn't want them to "blend" in with the others.


We should be able to express ourselves with our avatars.
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Quoting FunnelVortex:


Thats bullcrap, half the avatars here are not weather-related.
Exactly.I think that admin are trying to simply make a prime example out of people. The reason why I have such avatars is that it can be easy to spot my comments so I can easly go back and look at some things. I didn't want them to "blend" in with the others.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm not to sure.They keep talking about playgerizing and copy righting and that their not "site appropiate".I mean I know this is a weather/climate site.But can we at least have some freedom to express our selfs in our Avi's?.My avatars are not offensive nor have they ever offended anyone.If my avatar is "playgerizing" and "copyrighting" then I guess almost half of the members on this site Avi's will also have to be taken down.But since they are "cartoonish" and don't deal with the everyday life and with natural disasters then they have to be taken down..


Thats bullcrap, half the avatars here are not weather-related.
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I'll share with you all a few photo's that have come in from Port Hedland and Pardoo.

Port Hedland

@Tracy_Vo Tracy Vo
Minimal damage in Port Hedland. A few fallen trees and minor flooding. #TCRusty


@Tracy_Vo Tracy Vo
Driver didn't get far trying to get to Pardoo Station. The clean up after #TCRusty


@PeterFosterALP Peter Foster
#TCRusty Aftermath at Pardoo Station


@ThePilbaraLife Caitlin U'Ren
Built the homestead next to the river they said... #warrawagine #TCRusty


@ThePilbaraLife Caitlin U'Ren
#warrawagine #TCRusty #bigriver

The following photo's are courtesy of Pardoo Station, From Link


















Goodnight all. Stay warm Stay safe.
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Quoting catastropheadjuster:


Why don't they like your avatars? You've always had good ones.

sheri
I'm not to sure.They keep talking about playgerizing and copy righting and that their not "site appropiate".I mean I know this is a weather/climate site.But can we at least have some freedom to express our selfs in our Avi's?.My avatars are not offensive nor have they ever offended anyone.If my avatar is "playgerizing" and "copyrighting" then I guess almost half of the members on this site Avi's will also have to be taken down.But since they are "cartoonish" and don't deal with the everyday life and with natural disasters then they have to be taken down..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Ah the admin.Trying to find each and every excuss to try and stop me from uploading new avatars.They have won!.For now! but I'll be back with more..


Why dont they like your avatars?
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.