Category 1 Rusty hits Australia; Chicago gets its biggest snow of the winter
Tropical Cyclone Rusty rumbled ashore over the coast of northwest Australia near 06 UTC (1 am EST) on Wednesday near the small town of Pardoo, about 110 km east of the largest city in the region, Port Hedland. Rusty peaked at Category 2 strength with 110 mph winds about 12 hours before landfall, but weakened to a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds as it approached the coast, due to interaction with land. Sustained winds as high as 55 mph, gusting to 74 mph, were observed observed at the Port Hedland airport as Rusty made its approach. Rusty has dumped over 7" of rain on the coast, and major flooding is expected on area rivers. No casualties and only minor damage have been reported thus far, and I expect total damage from the storm will be less than $100 million. Rusty is the strongest tropical cyclone to affect Australia so far in the 2012 - 2013 tropical cyclone season.
Figure 1. Tropical Cyclone Rusty at 03:40 UTC on February 27, 2013 as seen by NASA's Terra satellite. At the time, Rusty was two hours from making landfall on the northwest Australian coast near Pardoo as a Category 1 storm with sustained 90 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Figure 2. Radar image of Rusty showing the large cloud-free eye bumping up against the coast of Australia near Pardoo at 05:40 UTC (12:40 am EST) on Wednesday, February 27. image credit: Bureau of Meteorology.
Significant snowstorm continues over Midwest U.S.
Meanwhile, back in the U.S., the second major winter storm in a week continues to blanket the Midwest with significant snows. The snowstorm, dubbed "Rocky", gave Chicago 5.4" of snow, its heaviest snowfall of what has been a quiet winter. According to the latest NOAA Storm Summary, the heaviest snow in the Midwest from Rocky fell in the Texas Panhandle, where 21" was measured in Follett. While the precipitation from the two major winter storms during the past week will not come anywhere close to busting the Midwest drought, the moisture they dropped is probably worth billions to agriculture.
Figure 3. Two-day snowfall amounts from Winter Storm Rocky.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Merci Beaucoup. :-)
Hi, hy!
I don't doubt that it will change with the 12z run coming out soon.
LOL!!!
Computer models only project, they do not tell you exactly what is going to happen. That can only be known once it happens. The models often disagree with one another, at least until we are well within the 48 hour time frame of the projected conditions. Even then there can be divergences.
Bear in mind too that the National Weather Service has never yet predicted any snow showers, snow flurries or even isolated snow flakes anywhere in Florida for this upcoming cold air outbreak. In fact, they have consistently painted it as more of a cool weather outbreak with predicted high and low temps well above the range projected by the GFS model. And that would not or will not change until within 48 hours of the projected time frame, if even then.
This is still a very inexact science and yet people understandably often get carried away with the forecast models, as if they were guaranteeing that a certain type of weather was going to unfold on a certain date and in any given location. I say that this is understandable because we have all been trained to read official pronouncements as something akin to gospel, even though this is far from true.
It is running now
While I do agree with your overall statement. The bolded part is false. The NWS in Mobile/Pensacola has officially included flurries Saturday morning in Florida counties north of I-10Link
39 hour:
42 hour:
45 hour:
But it has a wide warm sector:
I'm rooting for it to bring severe wx
thats not snow
you overe re act way too march
Yours is an exceptionally cool avi !!
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