Category 1 Rusty Australia's strongest tropical cyclone of 2013

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:36 PM GMT on February 25, 2013

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Australia's most dangerous tropical cyclone of the season so far is Tropical Cyclone Rusty, which has intensified to Category 1 strength and is lumbering southeastwards towards the northwestern coast of Australia at 6 mph. Rusty is expected to intensify further into a powerful Category 3 storm, and is predicted to make landfall near the town of Port Hedland (population 15,000) on Tuesday near 18 UTC (1 pm EST in the U.S.) Rusty formed on Saturday evening when westerly winds blowing near the Equator combined with easterly winds blowing south of New Guinea to create an unusually large tropical storm with a huge, 100-mile diameter cloud-free center. Ordinarily, a storm this large takes a long time to wind up, but Rusty intensified quickly, taking advantage of low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and near-record warm ocean temperatures of 31 - 32°C (88 - 90°F). It's not often that a tropical cyclone gets 31 - 32°C waters to feed off of; these temperature are about 1.5°C (2.7°F) warmer than average for this time of year. The hot ocean temperatures are largely due to Australia's hottest month in its history--the nationally-averaged monthly maximum temperature during January 2013 was the highest ever recorded. For the waters off the northwest Australian coast (15°S - 20°S, 115°E - 120°E), only two years since ocean temperature records began in 1960 have seen February ocean temperatures this warm (1.57°C above average in 2005, and 1.62°C above average in 1983.) The warm waters also extend to great depth; the tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) in this region is over 90 kJ/cm**2, a value commonly associated with rapid intensification. With its slow movement, large circulation, and near-record warm waters to feed off, Rusty is going to dump some prodigious rains on the coast of northwestern Australia over the next few days. Radar out of Port Hedland shows very heavy rains already affecting the coast, and sustained wind as high as 38 mph have been observed there today.


Figure 1. Radar image of Rusty showing the large cloud-free center and an intense band of precipitation to it southwest moving ashore over the coast of Australia near Port Hedland. image credit: Bureau of Meteorology.


Figure 2. Tropical Cyclone Rusty at 0555 UTC on February 24, 2013 as seen by NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Rusty was a tropical storm with 50 mph winds, and had an usually large cloud-free center more than 100 miles in diameter. Image credit: NASA.

Rusty the strongest tropical cyclone to affect Australia so far in 2013
It's been a rather quiet tropical cyclone season for Australia so far in 2012 - 2013; only two weak tropical storms have hit the country. Tropical Cyclone Peta hit the northwest coast on January 23 as a tropical storm with 45 mph winds. Peta dumped heavy rains of 4 - 10" (102 - 254 mm) in the Port Hedland area, very close to where Rusty is expected to make landfall. Peta's rains caused widespread flooding but no major damage. More serious were the rains from the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Oswald, which hit the Queensland coast in Northeast Australia on January 21 as a tropical storm with 40 mph winds. The remnants of Oswald pushed southwards along the coast and generated record rains that caused massive flooding in Queensland. Six people died and damage was estimated at $2.5 billion. The heaviest rains fell near Tully, where approximately 1 meter (39") of rain fell in 48 hours.


Figure 3. Tropical Cyclone Oswald at 0425 UTC on January 21, 2013. Oswald hit Queensland, Australia as a tropical storm with 40 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Jeff Masters

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163. beell
Theta-e may be a proxy for the warm front along coastal Louisiana, then extending NW to the intersection of the thin N/S line of convection along the TX/LA border.

So far, helicity values remain on the low side in the developing warm sector.


Theta-e Advection
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Gotta go deliver eggs! Back later and hope this is all fixed.
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Quoting nfloridandr:
anyone seen model rainfall forecast for tonights storms for florida panhandle?


This is MOB NWS local model through midnight... However I find it to be highly inaccurate!!!

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Quoting nfloridandr:
anyone seen model rainfall forecast for tonights storms for florida panhandle?
..4 inches plus...........
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sun is coming out full throttle now and winds are starting to mix down to the surface, winds picking up

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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39030
anyone seen model rainfall forecast for tonights storms for florida panhandle?
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Is that in the day time or night time??
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
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Quoting HondosGirl:
Worst of the rain is out of here for this round. Waiting for next round (likely more intense) later today/this evening. Natural Gas Truck stuck right outside the office --- sunk to its axles and now waiting for a tow truck. Not sure why they would send him out for non-essential servincing to rural areas with this much water on the ground?
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
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Quoting biff4ugo:
Madagascar family size is 6 per home, based on those numbers. Bad news, fewer homes destroyed means more people affected, Good News is fixing fewer homes helps more people.
It's not an economically wealthy fix for those affected. A lot of poverty, hence the 6 to a home +. Food will be an issue.
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Worst of the rain is out of here for this round. Waiting for next round (likely more intense) later today/this evening. Natural Gas Truck stuck right outside the office --- sunk to its axles and now waiting for a tow truck. Not sure why they would send him out for non-essential servincing to rural areas with this much water on the ground?
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MOB NWS has updated HAZ Weather Outlook for the secong time in less than 2 hours... Everything is still the same except they added what I have bolded. Wonder if someone accidentally left it off or are they more confident to share now

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1240 PM CST MON FEB 25 2013

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-2618 30-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-B UTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
1240 PM CST MON FEB 25 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING

WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND PERIODIC STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
OCCUR...AND A SURFACE FRONT MOVES NORTH OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...SOME OF THE NORTHEASTWARD MOVING THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. AS THE SQUALL LINE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING...SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD AGAIN BE
SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CAN`T BE RULED OUT.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT...WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO NEAR 7 INCHES REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WHERE SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS CROSS SOME
LOCALITIES. PERSONS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS...NEAR CREEKS AND
LOW LYING AREAS...SHOULD BE ALERT FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH
FLOODING.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39030
Jedkins...........Tornado to your south........
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Quoting LargoFl:
huge problems today for me too
"Wundered" were that coffee was this AM!
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TORNADO WARNING
FLC037-129-251915-
/O.NEW.KTAE.TO.W.0014.130225T1830Z-130225T1915Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
130 PM EST MON FEB 25 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
COASTAL SOUTHWEST WAKULLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 215 PM EST

* AT 119 PM EST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING A TORNADO
15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CARRABELLE...OR NEAR ST GEORGE ISLAND...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. WE JUST RECEIVED A REPORT OF A TORNADO
CROSSING THE ST GEORGE ISLAND CAUSEWAY.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ROYAL
BLUFF...CARRABELLE BEACH...LANARK VILLAGE...TURKEY POINT...SAINT
TERESA...BALD POINT...PANACEA-WAKULLA AIRPORT AND ALLIGATOR POINT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! LEAVE MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES FOR SAFER STRUCTURES.
MOVE TO A HALLWAY OR CLOSET ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND
OUTSIDE WALLS.

&&

LAT...LON 2973 8475 2976 8481 3003 8438 2989 8434
2991 8453 2980 8464 2983 8456 2981 8456
2979 8458 2977 8468 2982 8465 2982 8471
2976 8479 2973 8474 2977 8469 2976 8469
2966 8485
TIME...MOT...LOC 1829Z 241DEG 26KT 2971 8474

$$

9-FOURNIER
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39030
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1216 PM EST MON FEB 25 2013

FLC031-251730-
/O.CON.KJAX.SV.W.0018.000000T0000Z-130225T1730Z/
DUVAL FL-
1216 PM EST MON FEB 25 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM EST
FOR CENTRAL DUVAL COUNTY...

AT 1214 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
TRACK A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
THIS STORM WAS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE...MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

THE STORM WILL TRACK EASTWARD JUST NORTH OF DOWNTOWN THROUGH 1230 PM.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 39030
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
So my first guess 130 est, was right



Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Mod (60%)


Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Mod (30%)



Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
High (70%)


Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Mod (30%)



Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
High (80%)


Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (30%)


Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (>95%)




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Quoting JustPlantIt:
Problems all day
huge problems today for me too
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So my first guess 130 est, was right

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Madagascar family size is 6 per home, based on those numbers. Bad news, fewer homes destroyed means more people affected, Good News is fixing fewer homes helps more people.
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Is anyone else having problems with chrome and wunderground?

I can barely get on Wu with firefox (that i switched to now), and my chrome wont work at all on this site.
Problems all day
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Is anyone else having problems with chrome and wunderground?

I can barely get on Wu with firefox (that i switched to now), and my chrome wont work at all on this site.
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Just saw some RAW video out of Amerillo, TX on TWC of the Blizzard... Can't link.
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SPC watch at 130 - 3pm est IMO given that cells are starting in the warm sector and the instability at all layers in increasing along witih the cap's demise.
However helicities are still low, as the LLJ is still not roaring yet.
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Rusty a bit disheveled?
Loop
BBL, Barb
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Just so everyone knows, the MCS around the big bend is not the squall line, the squall line is developing much further west, and even much deeper moisture is pooling in the western gulf ahead of the cold front!





The second line of storms that is developing further west is going to be the actual squall line, it will be more vigorous.

The thunderstorms near TLH that looks like the squall line is from a strong short wave and jet streak riding over the warm front. The tornado warnings are right along the warm front itself.
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There goes the cap in SW Louisiana:


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s18/mu cp/mucp.gif?1361815925153
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Quoting barbamz:


O.K., thanks, sorry then. Sure, Skyponey is always up to date. In the moment I unfortunately cannot follow the blog all the time :-(
Not your post, she mentioned about it earlier and I did not follow up on her post. Too much weather in the states now and watching 'Rusty'. Go back and check it.
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Quoting JustPlantIt:
Think Skyponey?? not sure of the name... posted about this earlier.


O.K., thanks, sorry then. Sure, Skyponey is always up to date. In the moment I unfortunately cannot follow the blog all the time :-(
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Quoting barbamz:


Cyclone Haruna kills 13 in southern Madagascar
By RIVONALA RAZAFISON in Antananarivo | Monday, February 25 2013 at 12:16

The tropical cyclone Haruna has killed 13 people in southern Madagascar, the national disaster management agency (BNGRC) said.

The storm that hit the Indian Ocean island region on Friday affected over 17,000 people, leaving some with injuries.

Dozens other people remain unaccounted for so far, BNGRC said.

According to the official data, around 6,200 people were left homeless after 220 houses were completely destroyed, while 691 were partially damaged.

About 1,050 homes were flooded.

Winds and flooding damaged crop fields and several installations.

The regional capital Toliara was the most affected after the Fiherenena dyke gave in to the water pressure.

The city has reportedly never experienced such a disaster for the past 35 years.

%u201CThe dyke breach has aggravated the situation at local level. We used speed boats to save many lives,%u201D Mr Jugus Razafiarison, a director at BNGRC, told reporters.

Source and more

Edit: Here is another report about this subject from today.

Think Skyponey?? not sure of the name... posted about this earlier.
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Dr. Greg Forbes Torcon Index

Monday, Feb. 25

Scattered severe thunderstorms with heavy rain in extreme east Texas, Louisiana, south half of Mississippi, south Alabama, Florida panhandle, northeast Florida.

TOR:CON DETAILS

AL south - 3 today and tonight
FL panhandle, northeast - 3 today and tonight
GA south - 3 today and tonight
LA east half - 4 today
LA west half - 3 today
MS south half - 4 today
TX extreme east - 3 today
Tuesday, Feb. 26

Scattered severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rain in east NC, east half SC, southeast GA, north and central FL peninsula, extreme southeast VA.
TOR:CON DETAILS

FL north - 2 to 3
FL central - 2 to 3
GA southeast - 3
NC southeast - 4
NC northeast - 3
SC east - 4
VA extreme southeast - 3
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Cyclone Haruna kills 13 in southern Madagascar
By RIVONALA RAZAFISON in Antananarivo | Monday, February 25 2013 at 12:16

The tropical cyclone Haruna has killed 13 people in southern Madagascar, the national disaster management agency (BNGRC) said.

The storm that hit the Indian Ocean island region on Friday affected over 17,000 people, leaving some with injuries.

Dozens other people remain unaccounted for so far, BNGRC said.

According to the official data, around 6,200 people were left homeless after 220 houses were completely destroyed, while 691 were partially damaged.

About 1,050 homes were flooded.

Winds and flooding damaged crop fields and several installations.

The regional capital Toliara was the most affected after the Fiherenena dyke gave in to the water pressure.

The city has reportedly never experienced such a disaster for the past 35 years.

%u201CThe dyke breach has aggravated the situation at local level. We used speed boats to save many lives,%u201D Mr Jugus Razafiarison, a director at BNGRC, told reporters.

Source and more

Edit: Here is another report about this subject from today.

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First tornado warning of the day for Florida down by Tyndall AFB.............Will check back later today. Stay Safe out there and try not to drive unless you have to during this event.
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Quoting Jedkins01:
Guys unfortunately I can't post the images of the hail I took yesterday. I took the photos on my phone and wunderground won't accept facebook images, or even images from email now. Both used to work a while ago which is awfully weird.

It's strange because I emailed them to myself and they are in jpeg. form which should show up here but they still don't, I just checked in comment preview.

I promise you we did have hail here though and a lot of it, you can check SPC reports I live right by one them ones reported in TLH, lol.


At any rate, I realize quarter sized hail is nothing special but it was to me because I rarely have seen hail more than a few times ever and it was coming down in heaps yesterday so I was pretty excited to share the photos, oh well...


Meanwhile, strong thunderstorms with very heavy rain getting ready to move in here, loud thunder here.


Not to worry, Jedkins. Some of us have good imaginations ;-)

I am picturing nickel-sized to quarter-sized hail piled up on
the Tallahassee soil, with the occasional half dollar-sized hailstone
thrown in for good measure.

The way I'm seeing it, you can still see some blades of grass poking
through the assortment of freshly-fallen hailstones on the ground
but mostly you just see the hail.

And the light is somewhat dim, due to the heavy cloud cover and
the rain or light precipitation-induced fog in the area.

It's all good!
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Quoting robintampabay:
Jedkins01 what is your take on the models showing snow for the west coast of Florida for Sunday into Monday.



Very low but not completely impossible.

Even if it does get as cold as the models are saying, the very warm waters would probably prevent any snow from reaching ground as frozen precip.

The GFS is forecasting snow because it shows well below freezing temps at 850 mb over us, which is the cloud base level roughly. However, such warm water will insulate us, so to speak.

The one exception would be is some relatively heavier showers develop, in that case the combination of evaporative cooling and cold down drafts could allow snow to reach the surface. However, everything would have to line up just right for that. Like I said, not impossible, but very unlikely.


Keep in mind that's completely assuming the models stay as cold as they currently are, that too could still change.
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120. MahFL
We have had 2 severe warned storms pass by downtown JAX. I observed lots of rotation, but no sign of a tornado yet.
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tornado watch for N Florida now
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jedkins...i also had trouble posting jpg pics from smartphone. as for the hail producing storms i was 40 miles north and could hear the thunder.
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TORNADO WARNING
FLC037-045-251800-
/O.NEW.KTAE.TO.W.0012.130225T1724Z-130225T1800Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1224 PM EST MON FEB 25 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
FRANKLIN COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
SOUTHERN GULF COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 100 PM EST/NOON CST/

* AT 1117 AM CST...A DEVELOPING TORNADO HAS BEEN DETECTED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 13 MILES WEST OF APALACHICOLA...OR NEAR
THIRTEEN MILE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
ODENA...ELEVEN MILE...NINE MILE...TILTON...HOWARD CREEK...BAY CITY
AND APALACHICOLA AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! LEAVE MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES FOR SAFER STRUCTURES.
MOVE TO A HALLWAY OR CLOSET ON THE LOWEST FLOOR AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND
OUTSIDE WALLS.

&&

LAT...LON 2967 8521 2967 8528 2971 8530 2992 8506
2975 8493 2972 8495 2970 8502 2971 8510
2969 8517 2970 8510 2967 8506 2965 8508
2964 8509 2963 8515
TIME...MOT...LOC 1723Z 243DEG 11KT 2969 8519

$$

9-FOURNIER
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TWC just reported a hurricane force wind gust at the Amarillo airport via twitter.
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How the Ocean Loses Nitrogen: Scientists Identify Key Factor That Controls Nitrogen Availability in the Ocean

Feb. 24, 2013 %u2014 During an expedition to the South Pacific Ocean, scientists from the Max Planck Institute for Marine Microbiology in Bremen, along with their colleagues from the GEOMAR and Christian-Albrechts University in Kiel, discovered that organic matter derived from decaying algae regulates nitrogen loss from the Ocean's oxygen minimum zones.

....

Professor Marcel Kuypers concludes: "Our results will help to more realistically estimate the short- and long-term impacts of human-induced ocean de-oxygenation and changing productivity on nitrogen cycling in the OMZs, as well as the rest of the Ocean. This is critical to estimate how much CO2 can be taken up by the Ocean in the future."

Read the whole article on Science Daily

Have a nice day/evening everybody! And good luck with your severe weather in the US.

Edit: Another one

UN Sustainable Energy Initiative Could Put World On a Path to Climate Targets

Feb. 24, 2013 %u2014 The UN's Sustainable Energy for All initiative, if successful, could make a significant contribution to the efforts to limit climate change to target levels, according to a new analysis from IIASA and ETH Zurich.
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Jedkins01 what is your take on the models showing snow for the west coast of Florida for Sunday into Monday.
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Im in class right now (can't do much) and what's the advice for Rusty from ABM?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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