January 2013 Earth's 9th warmest on record; Category 2 Haruna hits Madagascar
January 2013 was the globe's 9th warmest January since records began in 1880, said National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Thursday. January 2013 global land temperatures were the 13th warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the 8th warmest on record. January 2013 was the 335th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average and the 37th straight warmer-than-average January. The last time Earth had a below-average January global temperature was in 1976, and the last below-average month of any kind was February 1985, so no one under the age of 28 has ever seen a month with below-average global temperatures. Global satellite-measured temperatures in January 2013 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 4th or 2nd warmest in the 35-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively. The Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during January 2013 was the sixth largest on record for the month, and marked the sixth consecutive January with above-average snow cover for the hemisphere. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of January 2013 in his January 2013 Global Weather Extremes Summary. The most extreme weather on the planet in January occurred in Australia, where the nationally-averaged monthly maximum temperature was the highest ever recorded. Australia also suffered record rains and flooding along the east coast due to the remains of Tropical Cyclone Oswald. Damage from the flooding totaled $2.5 billion, according to AON Benfield. One other billion-dollar weather disaster occurred in January--flooding in Indonesia that cost $3.3 billion and took 41 lives. As much as 300 millimeters (12 inches) of precipitation fell over a two-week period.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for January 2013, the 9th warmest January for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Colder than average conditions occurred in the Western U.S., northern Canada, and northern Russia. The Southern Hemisphere was record warm over land for the second month in a row, with record high monthly temperatures observed over northeastern Brazil, much of southern Africa, and northern and central Australia. No land areas in the Southern Hemisphere were cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .
Figure 2. Central Jakarta, Indonesia flooded following a heavy rain on Thursday, Jan. 17, 2013. Damage to Jakarta and surrounding areas was estimated at $3.3 billion. Image credit: AP.
Figure 3. In this photo provided by the New South Wales Rural Fire Service a wildfire near Deans Gap, Australia, crosses the Princes Highway Tuesday, Jan. 8, 2013. (AP Photo/NSW Rural Fire Service, James Morris)
Neutral El Niño conditions continue in the Pacific
For the 10th month in row, neutral El Niño conditions existed in the equatorial Pacific during January 2013. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) expects neutral El Niño conditions to last through spring. Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C below average or cooler for three consecutive for a La Niña episode to be declared; sea surface temperatures were 0.3°C below average as of February 18, and have ranged from 0.3 - 0.6°C below average during 2013.
Arctic sea ice falls to 6th lowest January extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during January reached its sixth lowest extent in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). This was the 19th consecutive January and 140th consecutive month with below-average Arctic sea ice extent. The last ten years (2004 to 2013) have seen the ten lowest January extents in the satellite record.
Figure 4. Ice fractures in the Arctic sea ice off the coast of Alaska, as seen by the AVHRR instrument on NOAA's F-16 polar orbiting satellite on February 21, 2013. As discussed at the Arctic Sea Ice Blog, these sort of fractures are due to the thin first-year ice not being able to withstand the stresses put on the ice pack by strong winds. In previous winters when thick, multi-year ice abounded, these sort of fractures were much less common. Image credit: Environment Canada.
Category 2 Haruna hits Madagascar
Tropical Cyclone Haruna hit southwest Madagascar at 00 UTC Friday, February 22, as a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Haruna was the strongest tropical cyclone to make landfall so far in 2013, globally. Haruna is being blamed for one death so far, and will bring torrential rains and dangerous flooding to southern Madagascar over the weekend.
Figure 5. Tropical Cyclone Haruna over Madagascar at 11:05 UTC February 22, 2013. At the time, Haruna was a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Japan sets snow depth record
Incredible snows fell in Japan this week, bringing the amount of snow on the ground to an astonishing 5.15 meters (16.9') at Sukayu Onsen, Aomori on Honshu Island. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt details the record in his post, Record Snow Depth (for an official site) Measured in Japan.
Wunderground's climate change blogger, Dr. Ricky Rood, has a post well-worth reading, Should We Just Adapt to Climate Change?
Have a great weekend, everyone!
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Good afternoon Aussie..
What's it like now as that article is alomost 2 years old. May 4, 2011
Tropical Cyclone Advice #5
TROPICAL LOW 10U
8:48 AM WST February 24 2013
=======================================
At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Low (990 hPa) located at 16.7S 118.3E or 400 km north of Port Hedland and 440 km west northwest of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The low is reported as moving south at 3 knots.
Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24 HRS
The low is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone late on Sunday or early on Monday as it tracks towards the coast. It is not expected to cause gales in coastal areas during Sunday but gales may commence on Monday.
During Monday the system will continue to intensify and there is a high risk that it will cross the coast as a severe tropical cyclone on Tuesday or Wednesday. People in the Pilbara and Kimberley are advised to stay up to date with weather forecasts and warnings.
Widespread very heavy rainfall is expected during Tuesday and Wednesday and is likely to lead to major flooding in the De Grey catchment. Significant flooding in the Fortescue is also likely.
Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Wallal to Whim Creek
Tropical Cyclone Watches
===========================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Broome to Wallal and Whim Creek to Mardie.
Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 17.5S 118.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 17.8S 118.4E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 18.9S 119.0E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 20.4S 119.7E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
Additional Information
=======================
The system center has been re-located to the southeast based on scatterometer data. The new position is also more consistent with offshore observations and the consensus of model positions.
DT of 2.0 is based on curved band wrap 0f 0.3. MET and PAT agree and FT/CI is held at 2.0. Scatterometer winds are in agreement; with stronger winds to the north in the monsoon flow. The system has not shown significant development overnight. Shear is above 20 knots over the northern parts of the circulation and the monsoon flow to the northeast may be hampering consolidation.
Despite the lack of recent development, conditions are still favorable for intensification. Shear is expected to drop as the system moves south, Sea surface temperatures are very high and there is not expected to be any dry air. Consequently it is expected to intensify steadily with a period of rapid intensification likely at some stage. Although outflow is confined to northern quadrants at present, by Monday the system should develop an outflow channel to the south.
Model guidance still shows some spread but amongst models that intensify the system there is better agreement.
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE HARUNA (09-20122013)
4:00 AM RET February 24 2013
=======================================
At 0:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Haruna (990 hPa) located at 25.5S 50.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 9 knots.
Gale Force Winds
================
35 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 70 NM in the southwestern quadrant, locally reaching 40 knots within 30 NM in the southwestern quadrant
Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the southeastern quadrant, and up to 120 NM in the southwestern quadrant
Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/S0.0/12 HRS
Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 26.6S 53.3E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 26.9S 56.2E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 26.3S 60.1E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
72 HRS: 24.8S 60.2E - 25 knots (Depression se Comblant)
Additional Information
========================
At this warning issuance time, last available micro-wave swath (SSMIS F16 1432z) shows that low level vortex has resisted at about 24 hours long overland track, crossing the big island, and still remains well defined. Since Saturday morning as the system is back oversea, deep convective activity has progressively consolidated into curved band pattern but shows now some signs of west northwesterly vertical wind shear constraint. Partially 1809z ASCAT swath shows that gale force winds 35 knots exists over all the western semi-circle (at least half of the clockwise circulation), locally reaching 40 knots in the southwestern quadrant.
System has therefore been back upgraded to moderate tropical storm stage despite a Dvorak maintained at ft=2.5. Haruna keeps on tracking east southeastwards under the steering influence of the subtropical ridge rebuilding in its southwest and is going quick away from the Malagasy coastline. System is expected to accelerate within the next 12-24 hours and should then temporarily limit the west northwesterly wind shear influence. Near the axis of the upper level ridge, over 26-27C sst, it should then keep the current intensity within the next 12 to 18 hours. But in relationship with the expected strengthening wind shear constraint, over marginal sea surface temperatures, Haruna is beyond 24 hours expected to quickly weaken.
On and after Monday late, the remnant low, is expected to re-curve left hand on the northeastern edge of the subtropical ridge. It is then expected on and after Wednesday to track globally west northwestwards on the northern edge of the aforementioned subtropical ridge.
Afternoon. I fell asleep last night listening to to emergency services on my scanner phone app. I heard of rescues, flooding, trees leaning on houses, trees across roads, power lines down, roofs off, cars crushed.
Need I say, a very eventful night of listening.
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...
AS A COLD FRONT EXITS WESTWARD...THE THREAT OF FLOODING HAS ENDED.
HOWEVER...PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...STREETS AND STREAMS REMAINS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER LOW-LYING AREAS.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A BRIEF LULL IN THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY BEFORE A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL...
POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 INCHES...AND THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
Still curious what your explanation is though...
well, I feel sorry for them. How about you?
Tornado photo's
Kiama Fire Station
Malabar homes damage
Car crushed by fallen tree at Concord.
and 8 to 14 day
just had a few trees down here. And the creek bust it's banks as the last onslaught of the storm came through. Got to 10 ft but luckily it did no damage around this area but I'm sure it did further down stream.
man... that storm must have been bad
I'll probably send it to you through a private message when I'm back up and running again. Knowing you though, I bet we are more on the same page than we think. Still, I'd really like to share this with you. Oh well, it will have to wait.
it was pretty bad, probably worse than ex-oswald which was a few weeks ago.
Not sure if I shared a video showing how windy it was up the coast.
- 4271 Requests for Assistance (RFAs).
- 70 Flood Rescues activated throughout NSW.
- 19601 people (7685 dwellings) subject to Evacuation Warnings and Orders throughout North East NSW.
- Eight rotary winged aircraft are deployed in the northeast of the state to provide assistance for this event.
- 39 communities isolated due to floodwaters affecting approximately 20,500 residents
Courtesy of NSW SES
Mt Colah: Ku-ring-gai Chase Rd at F3 Fwy. HAZARD Landslip. Impact: Traffic in both dirs. Atlernating traffic conds in operation.
You showed a still photo of a waterfall going in the wrong direction. Where was that that from? That was windy big time.
This is on the coast Dover Heights area of Sydney
Thanks to Larry Emdur
@larryemdur
unfortunately there is another low headed south from Queensland.
649 AussieStorm: Why was it funny?
The contrast: "There's HAVOC all around me" vs "And my cable tv reception is squirrelly"
Kiama
Fox Studio Sydney
Fox Studio Sydney
Dee Why
Kirribilli
Malabar
Stay safe, Aussie. I never realized Australia got weather as bad as that. I have friends there and they have never mentioned it. Winds strong enough to send a waterfall up? Amazing.
Ohhhh, you are the guy who told me something for New Year's??? I remember you..
Here is some more amazing photo's. SES South Coast just posted these of Kiama. Link
Monday, Feb. 25
Scattered severe thunderstorms and heavy rain in east TX, LA, central and south MS, south half AL, south GA, FL panhandle, and spreading overnight into south SC and east-central GA. TORCON - 4 east-central MS, south half AL, southwest GA; 3 rest of above area. Heavy rain also in TN, north MS, north AL, north and central GA.
Tuesday, Feb. 26
Scattered severe thunderstorms in east NC, east SC, southeast VA. TORCON - 4 east NC, east SC; 3 southeast VA. A lower chance of a damaging gust in the FL peninsula. TORCON - 2 or less.
Yeah me too. Been very popular lately for Brits to head there and have quite a few friends there now. All I've heard is about heat, the pics look like the mid-west in peak tornado season.
Tropical Cyclone Advice #6
TROPICAL LOW 10U
11:23 AM WST February 24 2013
=======================================
At 11:00 AM WST, Tropical Low (991 hPa) located at 16.9S 118.3E or 380 km north of Port Hedland and 435 km west northwest of Broome has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The low is reported as moving south at 3 knots.
The low is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone late on Sunday or early on Monday as it tracks towards the coast. It is not expected to cause gales in coastal areas during Sunday but gales may commence on Monday.
During Monday the system will continue to intensify and there is a high risk that it will cross the coast as a severe tropical cyclone on Tuesday or Wednesday. People in the Pilbara and Kimberley are advised to stay up to date with weather forecasts and warnings.
Widespread very heavy rainfall is expected during Tuesday and Wednesday and is likely to lead to major flooding in the De Grey catchment. Significant flooding in the Fortescue is also likely.
Tropical Cyclone Warnings
===========================
A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Wallal to Whim Creek
Tropical Cyclone Watches
===========================
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Broome to Wallal and Whim Creek to Mardie
If you wait another 15minutes you'll get the new update (update #7) on TL 10U
My thoughts and prayers to the people involved.
that storm is still expected to deepen so much before landfall?
Channel 9 Sydney posted a photo. Said it was a "mini-tornado" I replied that it was probably a water spout that came ashore which then makes it a Tornado. Looks like EF1 or EF2 damage.
Need to wait for the updated map and advice. Should be out soon.
opps. The update comes out at 3pm WA time. not 3pm Sydney time. Hades posted the update.
Here is the BOM Map for soon to be named TC Rusty.
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
if not, here is the link>>>> Video
Anyone care to guess what EF this tornado was?
Viewing: 651 - 701
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