January 2013 Earth's 9th warmest on record; Category 2 Haruna hits Madagascar
January 2013 was the globe's 9th warmest January since records began in 1880, said National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) on Thursday. January 2013 global land temperatures were the 13th warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the 8th warmest on record. January 2013 was the 335th consecutive month with global temperatures warmer than the 20th century average and the 37th straight warmer-than-average January. The last time Earth had a below-average January global temperature was in 1976, and the last below-average month of any kind was February 1985, so no one under the age of 28 has ever seen a month with below-average global temperatures. Global satellite-measured temperatures in January 2013 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were 4th or 2nd warmest in the 35-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH), respectively. The Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent during January 2013 was the sixth largest on record for the month, and marked the sixth consecutive January with above-average snow cover for the hemisphere. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of January 2013 in his January 2013 Global Weather Extremes Summary. The most extreme weather on the planet in January occurred in Australia, where the nationally-averaged monthly maximum temperature was the highest ever recorded. Australia also suffered record rains and flooding along the east coast due to the remains of Tropical Cyclone Oswald. Damage from the flooding totaled $2.5 billion, according to AON Benfield. One other billion-dollar weather disaster occurred in January--flooding in Indonesia that cost $3.3 billion and took 41 lives. As much as 300 millimeters (12 inches) of precipitation fell over a two-week period.
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for January 2013, the 9th warmest January for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Colder than average conditions occurred in the Western U.S., northern Canada, and northern Russia. The Southern Hemisphere was record warm over land for the second month in a row, with record high monthly temperatures observed over northeastern Brazil, much of southern Africa, and northern and central Australia. No land areas in the Southern Hemisphere were cooler than average. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .
Figure 2. Central Jakarta, Indonesia flooded following a heavy rain on Thursday, Jan. 17, 2013. Damage to Jakarta and surrounding areas was estimated at $3.3 billion. Image credit: AP.
Figure 3. In this photo provided by the New South Wales Rural Fire Service a wildfire near Deans Gap, Australia, crosses the Princes Highway Tuesday, Jan. 8, 2013. (AP Photo/NSW Rural Fire Service, James Morris)
Neutral El Niño conditions continue in the Pacific
For the 10th month in row, neutral El Niño conditions existed in the equatorial Pacific during January 2013. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) expects neutral El Niño conditions to last through spring. Temperatures in the equatorial Eastern Pacific need to be 0.5°C below average or cooler for three consecutive for a La Niña episode to be declared; sea surface temperatures were 0.3°C below average as of February 18, and have ranged from 0.3 - 0.6°C below average during 2013.
Arctic sea ice falls to 6th lowest January extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during January reached its sixth lowest extent in the 35-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). This was the 19th consecutive January and 140th consecutive month with below-average Arctic sea ice extent. The last ten years (2004 to 2013) have seen the ten lowest January extents in the satellite record.
Figure 4. Ice fractures in the Arctic sea ice off the coast of Alaska, as seen by the AVHRR instrument on NOAA's F-16 polar orbiting satellite on February 21, 2013. As discussed at the Arctic Sea Ice Blog, these sort of fractures are due to the thin first-year ice not being able to withstand the stresses put on the ice pack by strong winds. In previous winters when thick, multi-year ice abounded, these sort of fractures were much less common. Image credit: Environment Canada.
Category 2 Haruna hits Madagascar
Tropical Cyclone Haruna hit southwest Madagascar at 00 UTC Friday, February 22, as a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Haruna was the strongest tropical cyclone to make landfall so far in 2013, globally. Haruna is being blamed for one death so far, and will bring torrential rains and dangerous flooding to southern Madagascar over the weekend.
Figure 5. Tropical Cyclone Haruna over Madagascar at 11:05 UTC February 22, 2013. At the time, Haruna was a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.
Japan sets snow depth record
Incredible snows fell in Japan this week, bringing the amount of snow on the ground to an astonishing 5.15 meters (16.9') at Sukayu Onsen, Aomori on Honshu Island. Wunderground weather historian Christopher C. Burt details the record in his post, Record Snow Depth (for an official site) Measured in Japan.
Wunderground's climate change blogger, Dr. Ricky Rood, has a post well-worth reading, Should We Just Adapt to Climate Change?
Have a great weekend, everyone!
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Special weather statement
Monday 25 February 2013.
------------------------------------------------- --------------------
Special weather statement for:
City of Toronto
Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent
Sarnia - Lambton
Elgin
London - Middlesex
Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
Oxford - Brant
Niagara
City of Hamilton
Halton - Peel
York - Durham
Huron - Perth
Waterloo - Wellington
Dufferin - Innisfil
Grey - Bruce
Barrie - Orillia - Midland
Belleville - Quinte - Northumberland
Kingston - Prince Edward
Peterborough - Kawartha Lakes
Stirling - Tweed - South Frontenac
Bancroft - Bon Echo Park
Brockville - Leeds and Grenville
City of Ottawa
Gatineau
Prescott and Russell
Cornwall - Morrisburg
Smiths Falls - Lanark - Sharbot Lake
Parry Sound - Muskoka
Haliburton
Renfrew - Pembroke - Barry's Bay
Algonquin
Burk's Falls - Bayfield Inlet.
Potential winter storm Tuesday night and Wednesday.
------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==discussion==
A low pressure system over Texas is forecast to intensify and move
northeastward to pass near Southern Ontario Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Significant amounts of precipitation are likely with this
system. However, there is still a great deal of uncertainty
regarding which areas will see mostly rain or snow, as temperatures
will be fairly close to the freezing mark.
Current indications suggest that precipitation will begin Tuesday
afternoon as rain over areas south of a line from Sarnia to St
Catharines. The precipitation will change over to wet snow by early
Tuesday evening and the snow will spread northeastward to South
Central Ontario by late Tuesday evening and to Eastern Ontario by
Wednesday morning. Some areas, especially to the west and northwest
of Lake Ontario and including the Greater Toronto area, could see
snowfall amounts as high as 15 cm through Wednesday morning with this
system. However, there is still considerable uncertainty as to the
precipitation phases, and if precipitation falls as rain instead, or
if the snow is too wet and it melts when it contacts the ground,
these snowfall totals could be considerably less. Areas near the
Lake Ontario shoreline are also likely to have lower amounts due to
mixing with rain.
Environment Canada is closely monitoring the situation.
This statement will be updated to include additional information as
it becomes available regarding the evolution of this potential winter
storm.
Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca.
End
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN BAKER COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA
EXTREME SOUTHERN CHARLTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WESTERN DUVAL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA
SOUTHWESTERN NASSAU COUNTY IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA
* UNTIL 845 AM EST
* AT 807 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MACCLENNY...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.
* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MACCLENNY AND BRYCEVILLE.
Nice scientific description biff..Lol.. :)
Link
According to Navy/NRL TC Rusty just 51nm from Port Hedland ATM..
Appears EWRC currently ongoing..
Latest From Navy/Nrl..
Link
Slow mover..
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (RUSTY) WARNING NR 004
WTXS32 PGTW 250900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (RUSTY) WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 18.2S 119.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 119.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 19.0S 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 19.6S 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
SPC AC 251230
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0630 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013
VALID 251300Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS ARKLATEX...GULF
COASTAL PLAIN FROM E TX TO SWRN GA AND FL PANHANDLE...
...SYNOPSIS...
MAIN UPPER AIR FEATURES FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE STG/CLOSED CYCLONE
NOW CENTERED OVER TX SOUTH-PLAINS REGION...AND
PROGRESSIVE/HIGH-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY NEAR PAC NW COAST. LATTER FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
SEWD ACROSS INTERIOR NWRN CONUS...AMPLIFYING MORE AND REACHING FROM
WRN MT TO UT BY 12Z. AS HEIGHTS FALL AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM...500-MB
CYCLONE OVER SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL TURN EWD THEN ENEWD...REACHING RED
RIVER AREA NEAR ADM BY 00Z THEN E-CENTRAL/NERN AR BETWEEN LIT-MEM BY
12Z.
RELATED SFC LOW -- ANALYZED OVER NW TX INITIALLY...SHOULD DEEPEN AND
OCCLUDE THROUGH PERIOD. SFC LOW SHOULD MOVE NEWD ACROSS AR MORE
SLOWLY THAN MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW. DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE THEN SHOULD
BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED OVER ERN AR AROUND END OF PERIOD.
PAC/ARCTIC COLD FRONTS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE EARLY IN PERIOD...WITH
PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE REACHING FROM LOW SEWD ACROSS SE TX COAST BY
00Z...THEN OVER WRN TN...AL...AND WRN PANHANDLE OF FL BY 12Z.
MARINE/WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM MS RIVER MOUTH AREA WSWWD TO MID
TX COAST AND EWD ACROSS GULF WATERS TO NRN FL PENINSULA...DRIFTING
N. POLEWARD PROGRESS OF THIS FRONT HAS BEEN HINDERED BY COMBINATION
OF WEAK MID-UPPER SUPPORT AND PRESENCE OF PROFUSE CONVECTION/PRECIP
TO ITS N. HOWEVER...ONCE THAT EXTENSIVE CONVECTION SHIFTS NEWD AND
PRIOR TO COLD FROPA...WARM FRONT SHOULD MOVE INLAND OVER PORTIONS
SERN LA...SRN MS/AL...FL PANHANDLE AND PROBABLY SRN GA.
...GULF COAST STATES AND SRN GA...
TOTAL SVR THREAT IS AGGREGATION OF TWO TEMPORALLY SEPARATED
REGIMES...BUT PRIMARILY RELATED TO SECOND...
1. EXTENSIVE SWATH OF CONVECTION AND PRECIP IS ONGOING N OF WARM
FRONT OVER THIS REGION...FROM SWRN LA TO SRN GA AND MUCH OF FL
PANHANDLE. EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND SRH VALUES...PARTICULARLY CLOSE TO
WARM FRONT...SUPPORT CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR RELATIVELY DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS OR BOW-SHAPED CLUSTERS ALONG SRN RIM OF PRECIP FIELD THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREA AND OFFSHORE.
THESE MAY PRODUCE SPORADIC HAIL NEAR SVR LEVELS...AS WELL AS
ISOLATED STG/DAMAGING GUSTS INVOF WARM FRONT WHERE NEAR-SFC STABLE
LAYER IS SHALLOWEST. ANY CONVECTION REMAINING NEAR WARM FRONT AS IT
MOVES INLAND ALSO MAY POSE MRGL WIND DAMAGE/TORNADO POTENTIAL...BUT
GREATER WARM-SECTOR CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO WAIT UNTIL
PRE-COLD-FRONTAL MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.
2. AS COLD FRONT SHARPENS AND MOVES EWD INTO RICHER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE THROUGH AFTERNOON...BKN BAND OF TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP...FROM
ARKLATEX REGION SWD ACROSS BPT/LCH AREA AND WRN GULF. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS OUTLOOK AREA AND SPREAD TO ENCOMPASS BOTH
SIDES OF MARINE FRONT...AS LATTER BOUNDARY LIFTS N BEHIND MORNING
CONVECTION. STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL YIELD
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SVR TSTMS. WIND AND TORNADO
RISKS...FROM EITHER SUPERCELL OR BOW MODES...ARE RELATIVELY
MAXIMIZED ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT IN NARROW AREA OF SFC-BASED
EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS. HAIL IS MORE PROBABLE W OF MS RIVER WHERE
LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE GREATEST...AS MANIFEST ALREADY IN
12Z SHV RAOB.
SUPERCELLS...BOWS AND STG MULTICELL CLUSTERS ALSO MAY DEVELOP S OF
WARM FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF MAIN FRONTAL
BAND...ONCE AGAIN RAMPING UP SVR RISK FOR COASTAL AREAS PRIOR TO
COLD FROPA. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN FOR BOTH FRONTAL AND
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH BROAD AREA OF
CYCLONIC/40-50 KT FLOW IN 800-900 MB LAYER. DAMAGING GUSTS AND A
FEW TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH SFC-BASED
ACTIVITY POTENTIALLY GETTING AS FAR E AS SWRN GA AND CENTRAL-ERN FL
PANHANDLE.
..EDWARDS/GARNER.. 02/25/2013
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