Arctic sea ice volume now one-fifth its 1979 level

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:52 AM GMT on February 19, 2013

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The stunning loss of Arctic sea ice extent in recent years is undeniable--satellite measurements have conclusively shown that half of the Arctic sea ice went missing in September 2012, compared to the average September during 1979 - 2000. But the extent of ice cover is not the best measure of how the fire raging in Earth's attic is affecting sea ice--the total volume of the ice is more important. But up until 2010, we didn't have the measurements needed to say how the total volume of ice in the Arctic might be changing. Scientists relied on the University of Washington PIOMAS model, which suggested that the loss of Arctic sea ice volume during September might be approaching 75% - 80%. The model results were widely criticized by climate change skeptics as being unrealistic. However, in April 2010, a new satellite called Cryostat-2 was launched, which can measure ice volume by beaming pulses of microwave energy off of the ice. With two years of data to Cryosat-2 data to analyze, the results of the PIOMAS model have now been confirmed by a study published on-line in February 2013 in Geophysical Research Letters. In a University of Washington news release, co-author Axel Schweiger said, "people had argued that 75 to 80 percent ice volume loss was too aggressive. What this new paper shows is that our ice loss estimates may have been too conservative, and that the recent decline is possibly more rapid." The U.K.'s Natural Environmental Research Council reported that the team of scientists found that from 2003 to 2012, the volume of Arctic sea ice declined 36% in the autumn and 9% in the winter. The measure of sea ice volume is a good indicator of how the Arctic's most stable, "multi-year" ice is fairing. As the multi-year ice declines, sea ice extent, the total area covered by sea ice, in an "Arctic death spiral". The new study shows that thick, multi-year ice has disappeared in areas north of Greenland, around the Canadian Archipelago, and to the northeast of Svalbard, Norway.


Figure 1. Arctic sea ice volume in thousands of cubic kilometers during the September minimum in 1979 compared to 2012, as estimated by the University of Washington PIOMAS model. Arctic seas ice volume has declined by more than a factor of five. Image credit; Andy Lee Robinson.


Figure 2. The Polar-5 aircraft, carrying the EM instrument that was used to validate Cryosat-2 sea ice thickness measurements, flying over the validation site. Image credit: R. Willatt.

Why care about Arctic sea ice loss?
If you remove an area of sea ice 43% the size of the contiguous U.S. from the ocean, like occurred in September 2012, it is guaranteed to have a significant impact on weather and climate. The extra heat and moisture added to the atmosphere as a result of all that open water over the pole may already be altering jet stream patterns in fall and winter, bringing an increase in extreme weather events. The record sea ice loss in 2012 also contributed to an unprecedented melting event in Greenland. Continued sea ice loss will further increase melting from Greenland, contributing to sea level rise and storm surge damages. Sea ice loss will also continue to crank up the thermostat over Arctic permafrost regions. This will potentially release a significant fraction of the vast amounts of carbon currently locked in the permafrost, further accelerating global warming.

Related Posts
Earth's attic is on fire: Arctic sea ice bottoms out at a new record low (September 2012)
Half of the polar ice cap is missing: Arctic sea ice hits a new record low. September 6, 2012 blog post
Wunderground's Sea Ice page
Arctic Death Spiral Bombshell: CryoSat-2 Confirms Sea Ice Volume Has Collapsed by Joe Romm at climateprogress.org.

Jeff Masters and Angela Fritz

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897. VR46L
Quoting ncstorm:
the 12z GFS precip map up to 120 hours



Thats an awful amount of precip for the Northern Gulf ..

From what I have heard they already have enough for a while...
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6998
Quoting VR46L:
There is gonna be some weather about tomorrow



Looks good for the Duels on Thursday.
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6251
Quoting ncstorm:
The CMC is really working to increase revenue for the canoe industry..

Serious flooding!







lol great way to put it :)
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8028
Quoting Minnemike:
science is just the exercise of investigating reality. results hold when provable. truth is an abstraction, if not an illusion. there is fact, and fiction. theories are fiction, their experimental results are fact.
:)
That's one way to interpret it, but it's not entirely true. A theory may indeed be true and never be proven false. Experimental results are not facts either. There's no such thing as a perfect experiment. There will always be a source of error, no matter how small.
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the 12z GFS precip map up to 120 hours

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Dry conditions will continue to dominate the weather in the NE Caribbean and on the rest of the Eastern Caribbean.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST WED FEB 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE AREA...WILL
SHIFT EAST NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH
THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONCE AGAIN...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE BEEN
AFFECTING THE LOCAL REGION DURING MOST OF THE DAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY
HAS BEEN FOCUSED MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. MOST
OF THE AREA REMAINED CLOUDY. THESE PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAVE BEEN BROUGHT BY THE TRADE WINDS. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
THEREFORE...STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE...WITH THE CONTINUATION OF PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA.

FOR SUNDAY...REMNANT OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL
AREA. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY. ALSO...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY...ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA...BRINGING
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOWS THIS
BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH THE AREA...SJU-GFS COMPUTER MODEL
INDICATE PW VALUES WILL REMAIN LOW...AROUND 1.0 INCHES FOR MOST OF
THE TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND SCT SHRA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS PR THROUGH
20/21Z. AS A RESULT...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SHRA. LLVL WINDS WILL RANGE BTWN
10-20 KTS WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...LOCAL BUOY SHOWS SEAS OF 7 FEET AT 13 SECONDS. THIS WILL
CREATE BREAKING WAVE BETWEEN 10 TO 13 FEET. HIGH SURF ADVISORY
CONTINUES IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM AST. ELSEWHERE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES CONTINUES N EFFECT ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 74 84 / 30 30 30 30
STT 74 84 74 85 / 20 20 30 30
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891. VR46L
There is gonna be some weather about tomorrow

Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6998
The CMC is really working to increase revenue for the canoe industry..

Serious flooding!





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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 20 FEB 2013 Time : 180000 UTC
Lat : 22:19:21 S Lon : 40:55:18 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 953.0mb/ 99.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 5.3 5.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 55 km

Center Temp : +12.1C Cloud Region Temp : -61.0C

Scene Type : LARGE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 85km
- Environmental MSLP : 1005mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 31.8 degrees

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Quoting Xyrus2000:


Actually, they do. It's been replicated in labs. You can also kind of replicate it at any sceince museam that has one of those fluid filled "planets" that you can spin to create a "Jupiter". Spin the globe fast to get all the fluid inside streaking then stop the globe. At the "pole" you'll see vortices develope and start rotating around each other. I you did it right, there will be 7 vortices: one right at the pole, and 6 others around the polar vortex that form a hexagonal pattern.


Big Brain in the house! Nice explanation!
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>
Quoting JohnLonergan:
Tamino takes a look at Arctic Sea Ice volume here:
Cryosat-2 Confirms Stunning Arctic Ice Loss

Watch the decline here.


Thanks, John. I've embedded the animation of the decline here because it's so striking to see it in this manner:

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Quoting 1900hurricane:

The best sounding I have seen for me for tomorrow yet comes from the 12Z NAM, which shows a classic loaded gun style sounding 27 hours out. Even with the event being near and a couple of hours after sunrise, the MU CAPE does manage to about equal or even exceed 1000 J/kg too. Could be higher with adequate surface heating though.



CAPE for my sounding.

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Quoting pcola57:
NASA Astronomy Picture of the Day



Explanation: Why would clouds form a hexagon on Saturn? Nobody is sure...


Actually, they do. It's been replicated in labs. You can also kind of replicate it at any sceince museam that has one of those fluid filled "planets" that you can spin to create a "Jupiter". Spin the globe fast to get all the fluid inside streaking then stop the globe. At the "pole" you'll see vortices develope and start rotating around each other. I you did it right, there will be 7 vortices: one right at the pole, and 6 others around the polar vortex that form a hexagonal pattern.
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CAPE is slowly increasing on the NAM and GFS, things could be very interesting tomorrow. Both of these images are at 36hrs with the GFS on top and NAM on the bottom.

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
We are on 100 days until the official start of the 2013 North Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Link
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The best sounding I have seen for me for tomorrow yet comes from the 12Z NAM, which shows a classic loaded gun style sounding 27 hours out. Even with the event being near and a couple of hours after sunrise, the MU CAPE does manage to about equal or even exceed 1000 J/kg too. Could be higher with adequate surface heating though.

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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
kwgirl.... Seen any roosters and chickens runnin' around down there..LOL.
Seriously, In my younger days I was a naturalist for an Ohio State park in the summer months. Birds were my specialty. I still love to look and try to identify them... South Florida has a wide array of different type birds... Since I live close to the water I have become somewhat of an expert of the shore birds and ocean birds... One of my favorites that I see not to often when boating is the beautiful "Magnificent Frigate Bird"
You want chickens, you can have as many as you want for free! You just have to catch them. They congregate in my yard after I leave for work. They know my car so when I come home, they all scamper/fly away before I can miss them with a rock.LOL I think once I hit one and I felt bad:(
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
Quoting Jedkins01:



Actually, I think that is a wonderful explanation for why it appears the way it does. I never thought of that at first, maybe because we don't typically see such patterns from a large scale on Earth! Interesting point though.

Another example is how sometimes startlingly accurate images can appear in clouds, almost like as if they are an artwork. However, its due to the fact that water vapor is a fluid, and is always changing in shape and structure. When you have millions of water molecules in just one air parcel that has become a cloud after it has risen and condensed, and there are a many number of air parcels out there rising or subsiding, at some point recognizable patterns will appear. It's mathematically inevitable.

Furthermore, the human brain is very quick to recognize and notice visual patterns. From what I know, we should be thankful for this because it helps us with social interaction with other people very much :)
Another example would be the constellations. Looking at our night sky now, I always wondered how the ancients could take the dots and make a figure out of it. Then I went to the Grand Canyon, spent the night on the rim and went stargazing at an overlook. There were so many stars I couldn't see any constellations, as I know them. Then I blinked and Pegasus jumped out of the surrounding area, with feathered fetlocks and mane flying. But in order to see the "picture" I needed to see all the stars we currently do not see to see the image the ancients saw. IT was fantastic! I recommend it to everyone!
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
let us, Jed, avoid the event horizon of theological discussion, but yes, you've stumbled upon a couple reasonable conclusions i live with daily :)
a greatest miracle ever, to me, would be our existence as a meaningless happenstance, and the love that we are capable of experiencing, giving, and the existence of happiness in general... any other explanation to existence would just diminish that ;)
with a grasp of illusory perception, one gains a steady foothold on constructing value!
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New MCD about heavy snow in Oklahoma and Arkansas, link.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
877. VR46L
HARUNA

Meteosat - infrared - Madagascar - Reunion - Mauritius
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6998
Quoting Bluestorm5:


How big was the wreck?

It was just Newman, Edwards, and Martin with Newman receiving some minor damage. It is warm and sunny out there today. Oh and Dale Jr's engine blew up.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Tamino takes a look at Arctic Sea Ice volume here:
Cryosat-2 Confirms Stunning Arctic Ice Loss

Watch the decline here.
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Unmanned storm-chaser lands CU-Boulder on FAA's domestic drone list
Program director on drones: 'We hate that term and don't use it'



A long-standing program to use unmanned aircraft to collect data on storm systems landed the University of Colorado on a list of agencies and entities that have asked the Federal Aviation Administration for permission to fly drones in domestic airspace.

CU's 2012 request was a renewal of a pre-existing permit to use the Tempest Unmanned Aircraft to collect storm data for atmospheric scientists in Nebraska, Kansas and Colorado, Frew said.

The project, in cooperation with the National Science Foundation and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, involved flying unmanned craft carrying observation gear around supercell thunderstorms and the tornadoes they spawned.

Full Story at the Boulder Daily Camera

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Quoting Minnemike:
if knowledge is an abstraction, ever changing by the results of our quest to greater resolve the mysteries abound, and if truth is founded by that knowledge, then truth is indeed an abstraction.
only those who claim to know truth claim it to be anything other than illusion. one claiming their greatest truth, is oft reported to be the greatest lie by another.. there is a reason why this perceptual strife plagues human kind ;)
and that's the Truth!


How do you know what you just said is true? Isn't it then an illusion too? How can we really claim that Climate Change even exists? Or if atoms exist, or if the human brain exists, or if we exist?

I'm not sure that argument has a rational end, it seems circular, just saying :)

If truth is just an illusion, than there is no meaning to life. Our thoughts, and our very existence can too, just be an illusion then.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8028
Quoting PedleyCA:


That link shows it as March 9th. There is no year noted. Is that an old program.


I think it originally aired in March of last year (I missed it) but currently available on Comcast On Demand..........Awesome show.
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Quoting Grothar:


How do we know they are not contrails? :)
like i seen on Facebook, Bacon Taco!
your argument is invalid :)
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if knowledge is an abstraction, ever changing by the results of our quest to greater resolve the mysteries abound, and if truth is founded by that knowledge, then truth is indeed an abstraction.
only those who claim to know truth claim it to be anything other than illusion. one claiming their greatest truth, is oft reported to be the greatest lie by another.. there is a reason why this perceptual strife plagues human kind ;)
and that's the Truth!
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Quoting wxchaser97:


Well, there was just a wreck in practice.

Still a 30% severe risk in parts of LA, MS, and TX for tomorrow.


How big was the wreck?
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
For the Earth weather watchers, and particularly for global weather patterns and tropical storm issues, make sure you all look up (on your Cable and Comcast in particular) a show they have up called "Earth From Space". Saw it "on-demand" last night for the first time and it is a Nat Geo Program.

I missed the original broadcast but it is incredibly well done. It basically breaks down all of the different types of Earth observation satellites in space and what each one observes and is designed to do with images and various scientists explaining how they work.

Everything from the GOES/Meostat network to TRIMM. In the case of the TRIMM microwave satellite, they were explaining that it basically produces an "MRI" of the internal structure of a tropical storm and they were showing case studies of the "hot towers" in Hurricane Katrina during peak intensity periods....The list goes on an on (ocean current circulations originating from Antartica, global water vapor patterns originating from the Amazon, etc.)

An incredible show and a must see for weather/earth science enthusiasts.

Here is the Nat Geo link to the show:

Link



That link shows it as March 9th. There is no year noted. Is that an old program.
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6251
Quoting Minnemike:
Jedkins, indeed the great complexities of our universe unfold from simplicity. it is a mere matter of scale, which brings me to my follow up on your comment of straightness/sharpness.. the reality can be inferred that up close, the illusion of sharp/straightness completely disappears, not unlike the difference between one seeing the discreteness of a cumulus, whereas up close it's a non-discernible field of vapor, or a step back it's an entanglement of vortices.. ours is a fractal universe, evident by exploring natural pattern formation at all scales. the effect appearing on Saturn (btw) is relevant to scale, and to the chart i posted, i am confident. the dynamic fluid system on that planet is likely very stable, with a certain 'atmospheric viscosity' enabling the whole of the polar region to behave in a scalar ubiquity... but when you enter within the lines, or examine the regions surrounding, there appears to be expressed chaos abound. it's truly a remarkable image and atmospheric pattern/system!!


How do we know they are not contrails? :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
For the Earth weather watchers, and particularly for global weather patterns and tropical storm issues, make sure you all look up (on your Cable and Comcast in particular) a show they have up called "Earth From Space". Saw it "on-demand" last night for the first time and it is a Nat Geo Program.

I missed the original broadcast but it is incredibly well done. It basically breaks down all of the different types of Earth observation satellites in space and what each one observes and is designed to do with images and various scientists explaining how they work.

Everything from the GOES/Meostat network to TRIMM. In the case of the TRIMM microwave satellite, they were explaining that it basically produces an "MRI" of the internal structure of a tropical storm and they were showing case studies of the "hot towers" in Hurricane Katrina during peak intensity periods....The list goes on an on (ocean current circulations originating from Antartica, global water vapor patterns originating from the Amazon, etc.)

An incredible show and a must see for weather/earth science enthusiasts.

Here is the Nat Geo link to the show:

Link

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Quoting Minnemike:
science is just the exercise of investigating reality. results hold when provable. truth is an abstraction, if not an illusion. there is fact, and fiction. theories are fiction, their experimental results are fact.
:)



Eh, truth definitely isn't an illusion, but it is safe to say we often don't know the truth just because of the nature of the life.
If you think about it, absolute truth is really that of the infinite, that is we can continue to uncover relative truth through scientific study and rational thought, but the absolute truth will always be beyond our grasp, because we would have to be entirely all knowing about everything to really know the entire truth.

What we can know however is truth relative to what knowledge is available to us, and make the best of what we do know, which is the relative truth. However it's easier to just say "the truth" rather than explaining something to be relatively true for what we do know every time it is discussed :)
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8028
Quoting kwgirl:
During the migrations, the Audobon society asks volunteers to identify birds. My girlfriend and I attended the meeting and we both realized we would not be able to do it. Every different warbler has a name, but we call all of them Chippies. I have seen two varities of hummingbirds, the ruby thoat(once at a feeder) and some smaller, duller hummingbirds. I have seen the Cuban emerald but I do not believe these are the same. They are not as bright as the emerald, but the male is irridescent green. I even watch them perch for long times on branches and power lines, protecting the feeders.
kwgirl.... Seen any roosters and chickens runnin' around down there..LOL.
Seriously, In my younger days I was a naturalist for an Ohio State park in the summer months. Birds were my specialty. I still love to look and try to identify them... South Florida has a wide array of different type birds... Since I live close to the water I have become somewhat of an expert of the shore birds and ocean birds... One of my favorites that I see not to often when boating is the beautiful "Magnificent Frigate Bird"
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 6000
Quoting Minnemike:
Jedkins, indeed the great complexities of our universe unfold from simplicity. it is a mere matter of scale, which brings me to my follow up on your comment of straightness/sharpness.. the reality can be inferred that up close, the illusion of sharp/straightness completely disappears, not unlike the difference between one seeing the discreteness of a cumulus, whereas up close it's a non-discernible field of vapor, or a step back it's an entanglement of vortices.. ours is a fractal universe, evident by exploring natural pattern formation at all scales. the effect appearing on Saturn (btw) is relevant to scale, and to the chart i posted, i am confident. the dynamic fluid system on that planet is likely very stable, with a certain 'atmospheric viscosity' enabling the whole of the polar region to behave in a scalar ubiquity... but when you enter within the lines, or examine the regions surrounding, there appears to be expressed chaos abound. it's truly a remarkable image and atmospheric pattern/system!!



Actually, I think that is a wonderful explanation for why it appears the way it does. I never thought of that at first, maybe because we don't typically see such patterns from a large scale on Earth! Interesting point though.

Another example is how sometimes startlingly accurate images can appear in clouds, almost like as if they are an artwork. However, its due to the fact that water vapor is a fluid, and is always changing in shape and structure. When you have millions of water molecules in just one air parcel that has become a cloud after it has risen and condensed, and there are a many number of air parcels out there rising or subsiding, at some point recognizable patterns will appear. It's mathematically inevitable.

Furthermore, the human brain is very quick to recognize and notice visual patterns. From what I know, we should be thankful for this because it helps us with social interaction with other people very much :)
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8028
science is just the exercise of investigating reality. results hold when provable. truth is an abstraction, if not an illusion. there is fact, and fiction. theories are fiction, their experimental results are fact.
:)
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Quoting Levi32:


No, science is our current best possible understanding of how the universe works. That understanding may be the truth, or it may be a slightly misguided view to be refined later by additional discoveries, or it may be entirely false.

Based on empirical evidence, the geocentric model of the universe was accepted until Copernicus postulated the heliocentric theory. Light was believed to behave only as a wave until the experiments and theories of Planck and Compton. Time was believed to flow at a constant rate relative to any object until Einstein's theory of relativity. Classical physics taught that the laws of Newton held universally for matter and energy until quantum effects were discovered.

Clearly, major theories of science have been fully or partially untrue for the majority of its history, and our current understanding of the universe may get turned on its head many more times before we finally discover the whole "truth."

To go around saying science is true always is to define truth as relative to current knowledge, which is B.S.


Yes, science is not necessarily true, but it offers our current best possible explanation.

To deny science (without appropriate evidence and observations) is to deny our current best understanding.
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Quoting Jedkins01:



I like the idea! While simple, many times a hypothesis should start with a simple but sensible beginning.

The one problem is that the hexagonal pattern on Neptune looks so darn symmetrical its scary. Although I can see the similarity in the images you posted, the problem is that the each side looks just too straight with nearly sharp corners...
Jedkins, indeed the great complexities of our universe unfold from simplicity. it is a mere matter of scale, which brings me to my follow up on your comment of straightness/sharpness.. the reality can be inferred that up close, the illusion of sharp/straightness completely disappears, not unlike the difference between one seeing the discreteness of a cumulus, whereas up close it's a non-discernible field of vapor, or a step back it's an entanglement of vortices.. ours is a fractal universe, evident by exploring natural pattern formation at all scales. the effect appearing on Saturn (btw) is relevant to scale, and to the chart i posted, i am confident. the dynamic fluid system on that planet is likely very stable, with a certain 'atmospheric viscosity' enabling the whole of the polar region to behave in a scalar ubiquity... but when you enter within the lines, or examine the regions surrounding, there appears to be expressed chaos abound. it's truly a remarkable image and atmospheric pattern/system!!
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Plenty of moisture in the conus..



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Quoting ncstorm:
Good Morning!!

Really hope Nascar is talked about a LOT today..

Damaging flooding on tap for the south and east coast..



Well, there was just a wreck in practice.

Still a 30% severe risk in parts of LA, MS, and TX for tomorrow.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Quoting goosegirl1:


I find using mathematics as a universal language to be both efficient and elegant. An extraterrestrial may use a different base system (think if they have 16 fingers and 2 thumbs, what that math may be like!) but the numbers will remain the same. The numbers will be expressed as different symbols and concepts, but the fact remains- put 1 object next to another, and for that moment you have two objects. Now some wise elbow will tell us they will turn into 3 or more, if the objects were male and female from earth :)



Hmm yes good point!

For now though, we still have no proof extraterrestrials exist. Although it's reasonable to believe they do though given the vastness of the Universe and the ability of life to adapt.
As frustrating as math is to me, it is the true universal language, at least in science anyway! Not everyone can understand the language, I consider myself to be relatively poor at it given the amount of math I have to understand and know for my major, although I'm managing to get it, just not what you might call mastering it, lol.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8028
Quoting Jedkins01:



Well using the square root of 9 is a bit abstract, after all, mathematics is just invention to understand the natural world better. Technically it doesn't actually exist as natural processes would continue regardless of if the use of mathematics does or not :)

I know exactly what you mean though. I always like telling people that mathematics exists because there isn't any other working alternative. If I said the square root of 9 was 7, it is no longer mathematics.

It's similar to the discussion earlier regarding science, which too is like the concept or existence of mathematics. Science as a whole is a method, a tool, or even like a mathematical model that we use to understand the rational functions of the natural world.

The way it should work is that when a scientific theory has so much foundation, there becomes no other "tool" known to better explain it.



I find using mathematics as a universal language to be both efficient and elegant. An extraterrestrial may use a different base system (think if they have 16 fingers and 2 thumbs, what that math may be like!) but the numbers will remain the same. The numbers will be expressed as different symbols and concepts, but the fact remains- put 1 object next to another, and for that moment you have two objects. Now some wise elbow will tell us they will turn into 3 or more, if the objects were male and female from earth :)
Member Since: December 17, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1261
853. Jedkins01 12:02 PM EST on February 20, 2013

So far so good in terms of rainfall for the SE/Gulf Coast and drought issues that can manifest otherwise in the Spring for the agriculture belt down there...........On the other side of the coin, I am afraid that the snow melt, from the much colder weather and snow pac to the North and Mid-West, might cause some devastating flooding downstream in the Mississippi Delta once we get some heavy Spring frontal rains combined with warmer temps come late-March and April.
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I'm beginning to get some excitement for the upcoming frontal system. Model depictions of the prevailing flow tell me that it will be a classic setup for periods of very heavy rain for the southeast and should include the Tallahassee/big bend area. While the models still show the heaviest precip accumulations to the northwest, the models have actually slowing trended southeast with placement of QPF.

Now granted, some of us in the southeast don't want this, areas in southern/central MS and AL are still saturated from a very heavy rain episode recently. However the system will likely bring very much needed rain to the Panhandle, north Florida, and other parts of the southeast in a drought like much of Georgia.
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8028
Quoting goosegirl1:


Isn't that unexpected and awesome :) My late night brain droppings are hanging on an office wall. Thank you for the kind words.

I sometimes have to chuckle at the uniquely American concept that we should be able to think and do anything we want because we inherited the right to do so. But everywhere in the universe, the square root of 9 will remain absolute whether Americans legislate it or not :)



Well using the square root of 9 is a bit abstract, after all, mathematics is just invention to understand the natural world better. Technically it doesn't actually exist as natural processes would continue regardless of if the use of mathematics does or not :)

I know exactly what you mean though. I always like telling people that mathematics exists because there isn't any other working alternative. If I said the square root of 9 was 7, it is no longer mathematics.

It's similar to the discussion earlier regarding science, which too is like the concept or existence of mathematics. Science as a whole is a method, a tool, or even like a mathematical model that we use to understand the rational functions of the natural world.

The way it should work is that when a scientific theory has so much foundation, there becomes no other "tool" known to better explain it.

Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8028
I'm back from the doctors office. Some flurries outside with gusty winds and a temp of 22F, still feeling like winter. Also, a body was discovered in the rubble of JJ's in Kansas City, not good.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7972
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
sorry folks..dunno how that happened, lets see if it works ok now...............NOW...

A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHED INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING BUT WILL
WASH OUT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH IS NOSING INTO THE AREA AND WILL TURN THE LOW LEVEL WINDS OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST...AN ONSHORE COMPONENT. SO THERE WILL ONLY BE SLIGHT
COOLING BEHIND THIS FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST...MID 70S METRO ORLANDO AND UPPER 70S AROUND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE...PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NO
RAIN IS EXPECTED.
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 42264
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115 -118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-202100-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
349 PM EST TUE FEB 19 2013 /249 PM CST TUE FEB 19 2013/

...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK...

RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION HAS ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS
ABOVE BASE FLOWS AND SATURATED SOILS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE IN RECESSION AT THIS TIME BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO BASE LEVELS BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF
RAINFALL BEGINS LATE THIS WEEK.

COMPUTER MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE SPECIFIC DETAILS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION
BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. BECAUSE
THESE STORM SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING AND PULL IN A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF GULF MOISTURE...THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLOOD
EVENT OF COMPARABLE MAGNITUDE OR GREATER THAN LAST WEEK IS
POSSIBLE INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE FIRST RAINFALL EVENT ON FRIDAY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AND
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO
4 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND INTO
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA SHOULD THIS SYSTEM MOVE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED.

THE SECOND RAINFALL EVENT IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN ON MONDAY AND
LAST THROUGH TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE MORE
UNCERTAIN BUT COULD EASILY MEET OR EXCEED PREVIOUS RAINFALL FROM
THE FIRST EVENT.

AVERAGE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY...

SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.........4 TO 7 INCHES
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.........4 TO 7 INCHES
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA......3 TO 5 INCHES
SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA.....3 TO 4 INCHES
FLORIDA BIG BEND..........2 TO 4 INCHES

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT LOCALLY HEAVIER STORM TOTALS DOUBLE
THESE AVERAGE AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOILS IN MANY LOCATIONS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF THIS MAGNITUDE COULD CREATE ANOTHER ROUND OF DANGEROUS FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.

IMPACTS ON RIVERS...

SHOULD THESE ANTICIPATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OCCUR...SIGNIFICANT
RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WOULD BE LIKELY. CURRENTLY...THE
FOLLOWING BASINS ARE WELL ABOVE BASE FLOWS AND VULNERABLE TO
FLOODING...

CHOCTAWHATCHEE...INCREASED FLOODING POTENTIAL BETWEEN GENEVA AND
BRUCE INTO NEXT WEEK.

CHIPOLA...INCREASED FLOODING POTENTIAL AT MARIANNA AND ALTHA INTO
NEXT WEEK.

APALACHICOLA...MINOR FLOODING POTENTIAL AT BLOUNTSTOWN CONTINUING
INTO NEXT WEEK.

FLINT...MINOR FLOODING POTENTIAL AT ALBANY AND AN INCREASED FLOOD
POTENTIAL FROM NEWTON TO LAKE SEMINOLE.

WITHLACHOOCHEE...MINOR FLOODING POTENTIAL AT VALDOSTA.

OTHER VULNERABLE STREAMS INCLUDE THE MUCKALEE CREEK AND
KINCHAFOONEE NORTH OF ALBANY AS WELL AS THE SPRING CREEK IN MILLER
COUNTY AND THE LITTLE RIVER NEAR HAHIRA.

AS WITH ANY HYDROLOGIC RIVER PREDICTION...RISES AND EVENTUAL CRESTS
ARE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS AND ENTERS THE
BASIN. FOR THIS REASON...THIS OUTLOOK MAY BE UPDATED FREQUENTLY IN
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR THE LATEST FLOOD AND RIVER INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/TALLAHASSEE AND CLICK ON THE RIVERS AND LAKES LINK.

$$

GODSEY
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8028

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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