Arctic sea ice volume now one-fifth its 1979 level

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:52 AM GMT on February 19, 2013

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The stunning loss of Arctic sea ice extent in recent years is undeniable--satellite measurements have conclusively shown that half of the Arctic sea ice went missing in September 2012, compared to the average September during 1979 - 2000. But the extent of ice cover is not the best measure of how the fire raging in Earth's attic is affecting sea ice--the total volume of the ice is more important. But up until 2010, we didn't have the measurements needed to say how the total volume of ice in the Arctic might be changing. Scientists relied on the University of Washington PIOMAS model, which suggested that the loss of Arctic sea ice volume during September might be approaching 75% - 80%. The model results were widely criticized by climate change skeptics as being unrealistic. However, in April 2010, a new satellite called Cryostat-2 was launched, which can measure ice volume by beaming pulses of microwave energy off of the ice. With two years of data to Cryosat-2 data to analyze, the results of the PIOMAS model have now been confirmed by a study published on-line in February 2013 in Geophysical Research Letters. In a University of Washington news release, co-author Axel Schweiger said, "people had argued that 75 to 80 percent ice volume loss was too aggressive. What this new paper shows is that our ice loss estimates may have been too conservative, and that the recent decline is possibly more rapid." The U.K.'s Natural Environmental Research Council reported that the team of scientists found that from 2003 to 2012, the volume of Arctic sea ice declined 36% in the autumn and 9% in the winter. The measure of sea ice volume is a good indicator of how the Arctic's most stable, "multi-year" ice is fairing. As the multi-year ice declines, sea ice extent, the total area covered by sea ice, in an "Arctic death spiral". The new study shows that thick, multi-year ice has disappeared in areas north of Greenland, around the Canadian Archipelago, and to the northeast of Svalbard, Norway.


Figure 1. Arctic sea ice volume in thousands of cubic kilometers during the September minimum in 1979 compared to 2012, as estimated by the University of Washington PIOMAS model. Arctic seas ice volume has declined by more than a factor of five. Image credit; Andy Lee Robinson.


Figure 2. The Polar-5 aircraft, carrying the EM instrument that was used to validate Cryosat-2 sea ice thickness measurements, flying over the validation site. Image credit: R. Willatt.

Why care about Arctic sea ice loss?
If you remove an area of sea ice 43% the size of the contiguous U.S. from the ocean, like occurred in September 2012, it is guaranteed to have a significant impact on weather and climate. The extra heat and moisture added to the atmosphere as a result of all that open water over the pole may already be altering jet stream patterns in fall and winter, bringing an increase in extreme weather events. The record sea ice loss in 2012 also contributed to an unprecedented melting event in Greenland. Continued sea ice loss will further increase melting from Greenland, contributing to sea level rise and storm surge damages. Sea ice loss will also continue to crank up the thermostat over Arctic permafrost regions. This will potentially release a significant fraction of the vast amounts of carbon currently locked in the permafrost, further accelerating global warming.

Related Posts
Earth's attic is on fire: Arctic sea ice bottoms out at a new record low (September 2012)
Half of the polar ice cap is missing: Arctic sea ice hits a new record low. September 6, 2012 blog post
Wunderground's Sea Ice page
Arctic Death Spiral Bombshell: CryoSat-2 Confirms Sea Ice Volume Has Collapsed by Joe Romm at climateprogress.org.

Jeff Masters and Angela Fritz

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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi Levi. You see the ITCZ lifting northward earlier than normal? I ask because the Gulf of Guinea is warm at this time.



The North American multi-model average seems to think so. The belt of above-normal precipitation north of the belt of below-normal precipitation tells us that.

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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Geeeze! I remember when 256 kb of system ram was a big deal! I remember my first 250 mg. hard drive saying to myself, "I would never fill this up!". I remember how to edit the Autoexec.bat file and the Config.sys file. I remember when Wolfenstein was the best looking game ever! .... I remember some other things too, but I forget what they are right now.


I've written a handful of .bat scripts too, for a couple of game mods and launchers for other things as well. Never taken a programming class, though.
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A large part of the central US is under some form of a winter weather alert, and this area may expand even more.
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While snow in Kansas is expected to be the big headline for Winter Storm Q, with over a foot and a half expected in some locations, ice accumulation across Arkansas will be much more dangerous and potentially life-threatening. Ice Storm Warnings are in effect for many counties across the state, where accumulation is expected to exceed 0.5"; some locations will pick up 0.75" or more. Significant ice accumulation such as this will lead to widespread power outages and very dangerous traveling conditions.

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Quoting WxGeekVA:


But seriously though. I can put the every article on wikipedia on my thumb drive in a .zip format. It's as close as I can get to literally holding a copy of the book of all of human knowledge in the palm of my hand. 8.3GB for the whole thing. although it it's unzipped... it would be over 12TB. Older people will probably remember when 64MB was a big deal!


Geeeze! I remember when 256 kb of system ram was a big deal! I remember my first 250 mg. hard drive saying to myself, "I would never fill this up!". I remember how to edit the Autoexec.bat file and the Config.sys file. I remember when Wolfenstein was the best looking game ever! .... I remember some other things too, but I forget what they are right now.
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Don't forget to backup the Internet to your thumb drive first. :)


But seriously though. I can put the every article on wikipedia on my thumb drive in a .zip format. It's as close as I can get to literally holding a copy of the book of all of human knowledge in the palm of my hand. 8.3GB for the whole thing. although it it's unzipped... it would be over 12TB. Older people will probably remember when 64MB was a big deal!
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Quoting Levi32:
Vertical instability during the late winter doesn't matter quite as much. Even in 2005 it was below normal until April and May. Considering a big mid-level ridge sits over the tropics during the late winter and early spring, it's not uncommon for the atmosphere to be quite stable until the ITCZ drifts northward.

That said, I don't think I've seen vertical instability quite this far below normal before.

Here was 2005.



Hi Levi. You see the ITCZ lifting northward earlier than normal? I ask because the Gulf of Guinea is warm at this time.

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Quoting strongcoldfront:
The Arctic temperatures have been close to normal this winter, other than Svalbard. If this continues in the coming years, will Arctic sea ice recover?

That depends on how much winter ice makes it through the summer.
Member Since: October 30, 2005 Posts: 7 Comments: 5469
Quoting WxGeekVA:
I'm bored.. Going to download Wikipedia, brb.


Don't forget to backup the Internet to your thumb drive first. :)
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Quoting stormchaser19:
HARUNA
this hurricane seems sick




That might be one of the weirdest looking tropical cyclones I've seen...
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Vertical instability during the late winter doesn't matter quite as much. Even in 2005 it was below normal until April and May. Considering a big mid-level ridge sits over the tropics during the late winter and early spring, it's not uncommon for the atmosphere to be quite stable until the ITCZ drifts northward.

That said, I don't think I've seen vertical instability quite this far below normal before.

Here was 2005.

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Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Jedkins..So correct... But, I'm sure the anti hunters would disagree



Well for those who aren't comfortable with hunting, you can enjoy the outdoors without hunting, most of the time when I go into the woods I don't hunt, I only do so on special occasions. For me hunting has helped me value animal life more so, although that's not true for all, if it's presented to young people properly as kids learn to hunt, it can be used as way to value nature more. Also children also learn to respect firearms more so that way as well.

Additionally, being in nature doesn't require hunting, I know a few people down here act as if outdoors only means hunting and driving trucks with big tires through mud, but it can be so much more than that :)
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Quoting stormchaser19:


Yes, but in the carribean is normal!!!

Not quite.

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Quoting LargoFl:
folks along the gulf coast, be prepared and stay safe,some of the models have excessive rainfall amounts..wish some of that 7 inches or more would come here around me but..Tampa must have the shields up again lol..only got a light sprinkle this morning


Yeh,and all that moisture is heading up the coast to me again.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Vertical instability continues to be below average in the Tropical Atlantic. Let's see if it goes up in the comming weeks or the MDR will not have the normal tropical formation activity.



Yes, but in the carribean is normal!!!
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7 day for Tampa Bay area...................
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36905
Vertical instability continues to be below average in the Tropical Atlantic. Let's see if it goes up in the comming weeks or the MDR will not have the normal tropical formation activity.

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folks along the gulf coast, be prepared and stay safe,some of the models have excessive rainfall amounts..wish some of that 7 inches or more would come here around me but..Tampa must have the shields up again lol..only got a light sprinkle this morning
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36905
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
145 PM EST WED FEB 20 2013 /245 PM CST WED FEB 20 2013/

...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK...

RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION HAS ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS
ABOVE BASE FLOWS AND SATURATED SOILS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE IN RECESSION AT THIS TIME BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO BASE LEVELS BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF
RAINFALL BEGINS LATE THIS WEEK.

COMPUTER MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE SPECIFIC DETAILS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION
BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. BECAUSE
THESE STORM SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING AND PULL IN A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF GULF MOISTURE...THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLOOD
EVENT OF COMPARABLE MAGNITUDE OR GREATER THAN LAST WEEK IS
POSSIBLE INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE FIRST RAINFALL EVENT ON FRIDAY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AND
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO
4 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND INTO
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA SHOULD THIS SYSTEM MOVE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED.

THE SECOND RAINFALL EVENT IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN ON MONDAY AND
LAST THROUGH TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE MORE
UNCERTAIN BUT COULD EASILY MEET OR EXCEED PREVIOUS RAINFALL FROM
THE FIRST EVENT.

AVERAGE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY...

SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.........5 TO 8 INCHES
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.........5 TO 8 INCHES
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA......3 TO 5 INCHES
SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA.....3 TO 4 INCHES
FLORIDA BIG BEND..........2 TO 4 INCHES

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT LOCALLY HEAVIER STORM TOTALS DOUBLE
THESE AVERAGE AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOILS IN MANY LOCATIONS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF THIS MAGNITUDE COULD CREATE ANOTHER ROUND OF DANGEROUS FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.

IMPACTS ON RIVERS...

SHOULD THESE ANTICIPATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OCCUR...SIGNIFICANT RISES
ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WOULD BE LIKELY. CURRENTLY...THE
FOLLOWING BASINS ARE WELL ABOVE BASE FLOWS AND VULNERABLE TO
FLOODING...

CHOCTAWHATCHEE...INCREASED FLOODING POTENTIAL BETWEEN GENEVA AND
BRUCE INTO NEXT WEEK.

CHIPOLA...INCREASED FLOODING POTENTIAL AT MARIANNA AND ALTHA INTO
NEXT WEEK.

APALACHICOLA...MINOR FLOODING POTENTIAL AT BLOUNTSTOWN CONTINUING
INTO NEXT WEEK.

FLINT...MINOR FLOODING POTENTIAL AT ALBANY AND AN INCREASED FLOOD
POTENTIAL FROM NEWTON TO LAKE SEMINOLE.

WITHLACHOOCHEE...MINOR FLOODING POTENTIAL AT VALDOSTA.

OTHER VULNERABLE STREAMS INCLUDE THE MUCKALEE CREEK AND
KINCHAFOONEE NORTH OF ALBANY AS WELL AS THE SPRING CREEK IN MILLER
COUNTY AND THE LITTLE RIVER NEAR HAHIRA.

AS WITH ANY HYDROLOGIC RIVER PREDICTION...RISES AND EVENTUAL CRESTS
ARE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS AND ENTERS THE
BASIN. FOR THIS REASON...THIS OUTLOOK MAY BE UPDATED FREQUENTLY IN
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR THE LATEST FLOOD AND RIVER INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/TALLAHASSEE AND CLICK ON THE RIVERS AND LAKES LINK.

$$

EVANS/GODSEY

Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36905
HARUNA
this hurricane seems sick

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
218 PM CST WED FEB 20 2013

...NUISANCE COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...

.INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WIND WAVES AND SWELLS CONTINUE PUSHING
GULF WATER TO THE COAST. THE ACTUAL TIDES WILL BE RUNNING FROM 1
TO 2 FEET ABOVE THE TIDE TABLE VALUES. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

LAZ052>054-073-074-TXZ215-216-210600-
/O.NEW.KLCH.CF.Y.0001.130221T1500Z-130221T2100Z/
VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-WEST CAMERON-EAST CAMERON-JEFFERSON-
ORANGE-
218 PM CST WED FEB 20 2013

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM CST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 3 PM CST
THURSDAY.

* COASTAL FLOODING: THE ACTUAL TIDES WILL BE RUNNING NEAR 3 FEET
ABOVE THE DATUM MEAN LOWER LOW WATER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

* TIMING: EARLY AFTERNOON BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM.

* IMPACTS: MINOR FLOODING AT THE COAST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT ONSHORE WINDS AND TIDES
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE MINOR FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE
SHORE.

&&

$$
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36905
I'm bored.. Going to download Wikipedia, brb.
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36905
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 36905
Quoting Jedkins01:



I spend a lot of time outdoors, I know very well how hunt and fish, and survive off the land. Nothing is more satisfying then getting away from the overly fast paced hustle and bustle of modern urban life, and heading into nature and enjoying activities there with family and friends. If we learn to do that more often, it will help a lot with our stress issues. Although urban living and the insanely fast paced lifestyle today is just part of our culture and help us get more done, I don't think it's good for us.

As I always tell people, it's not the modern technology and abilities that are bad, its how we've handled them and transformed our society with it in ways that we shouldn't. I still bring my PC or phone to the woods in case I need it, but I learn to take a break from it. It's a beautiful thing to enjoy the natural world.


Furthermore, maybe if we as Americans learn to return to the outdoors a little more, we might as a whole appreciate the value of nature and the environment a little more, and a little less about expanding industry and consumption. Maybe, just maybe, we'll start giving back and restoring the natural world more, rather than destroying it...
Jedkins..So correct... But, I'm sure the anti hunters would disagree
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5821
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Ask any hunter or fisherman who frequents the same hunting and fishing spots for years on end.....You get to know every hole and crevice over time and know pretty much when the game and fish will be there.

Getting your kids and children outdoors and teaching them to live off the land if they have too is a great thing and develops their/ours "genetic" survival instinct........Get them out of the city and into the wilderness.

I have several honey holes (accessible by wading from land) and will never starve to death as long as I can build a fire, if I need to, to cook the fish.............. :)



I spend a lot of time outdoors, I know very well how hunt and fish, and survive off the land. Nothing is more satisfying then getting away from the overly fast paced hustle and bustle of modern urban life, and heading into nature and enjoying activities there with family and friends. If we learn to do that more often, it will help a lot with our stress issues. Although urban living and the insanely fast paced lifestyle today is just part of our culture and help us get more done, I don't think it's good for us.

As I always tell people, it's not the modern technology and abilities that are bad, its how we've handled them and transformed our society with it in ways that we shouldn't. I still bring my PC or phone to the woods in case I need it, but I learn to take a break from it. It's a beautiful thing to enjoy the natural world.


Furthermore, maybe if we as Americans learn to return to the outdoors a little more, we might as a whole appreciate the value of nature and the environment a little more, and a little less about expanding industry and consumption. Maybe, just maybe, we'll start giving back and restoring the natural world more, rather than destroying it...
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Its looking like I may get something from this storm Saturday.... I just hope its more snow
Member Since: February 13, 2012 Posts: 11 Comments: 3632



Smallest planet yet found outside solar system

Full story HERE..

Astronomers searching for planets outside our solar system have discovered the tiniest one yet -- one that's about the size of our moon.

But hunters for life in the universe will need to poke elsewhere. The new world orbits too close to its sun-like star and is too sizzling to support life. Its surface temperature is an estimated 700 degrees Fahrenheit. It also lacks an atmosphere and water on its rocky surface.

University of California, Berkeley astronomer Geoff Marcy, one of the founding fathers of the planet-hunting field, called the latest find "absolutely mind-boggling."

"This new discovery raises the specter that the universe is jampacked, like jelly beans in a jar, with planets even smaller than Earth," said Marcy, who had no role in the new research.


It's been nearly two decades since the first planet was found outside our solar system. Since then, there's been an explosion of discoveries, accelerated by NASA's Kepler telescope launched in 2009 to search for a twin Earth. So far, 861 planets have been spotted and only recently have scientists been able to detect planets that are similar in size to Earth or smaller.

While scientists have theorized the existence of a celestial body that's smaller than Mercury -- the baby of the solar system since Pluto's downgrade -- they have not spotted one until now. Nearest to the sun, Mercury is about two-fifths the Earth's diameter; the newly discovered planet and our moon are about a third the size of Earth.

**More on story can be found at link at top of post..
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Quoting Jedkins01:




Those darned intelligent Germans getting ahead in the game again....


lol


:-P lol, Jedkins. But it costs us some money, if you read the whole article. Nevertheless, I hope we (and the whole world) will figure out an equilibrium in prices und find some solutions to store wind energy.
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Quoting barbamz:
Off topic (sorry), but breathtaking, if someone is interested. Etna (Italy/Sicily) had a new paroxysm (outbreak) at Feb 19th and right now the third in a row at a different (lower) place is going on.



Too bad they ruin the video with the music.

Would rather hear the natural sounds.
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Quoting barbamz:
Wow, folks, discussion became so smart that my poor skills in English won't be sufficient to take an active part, lol (but very interesting to read anyway, thank you all!). So just some windy news from Germany for now.


Wind Blows German Power Swings to Five-Year High: Energy

By Rachel Morison & Julia Mengewein - Feb 19, 2013 2:49 PM GMT+0100

Germany is getting more power than ever before from sources dependent on wind and sunshine, pushing short-term price swings to the biggest in five years and boosting volume as utilities increase trading.

The gap between the highest and lowest price over two months for electricity deliverable the next day widened to the most since December 2007 through yesterday, according to broker data compiled by Bloomberg. German wind output peaked at a record 23,331 megawatts on Jan. 31, enough to supply 46 million homes. That compares with an average of 5,079 megawatts during 2012, data from European Energy Exchange AG on Bloomberg show.

Source and the whole article




Those darned intelligent Germans getting ahead in the game again....


lol
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Ask any hunter or fisherman who frequents the same hunting and fishing spots for years on end.....You get to know every hole and crevice over time and know pretty much when the game and fish will be there.

Getting your kids and children outdoors and teaching them to live off the land if they have too is a great thing and develops their/ours "genetic" survival instinct........Get them out of the city and into the wilderness.

I have several honey holes (accessible by wading from land) and will never starve to death as long as I can build a fire, if I need to, to cook the fish.............. :)
Exactly wannabe... I fish the ocean now, thanks to GPS I can go to the same "honey holes" .... My mom and dad lived on a lake in Lake Placid Florida in their retirement years (Lake June in Winter) . My dad would fish every day... He was never skunked... He knew, exactly, where to go... My grandson is hooked on fishing now.... So much better than playing video games... Ya think?
Member Since: October 3, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 5821
Off topic (sorry), but breathtaking, if someone is interested. Etna (Italy/Sicily) had a new paroxysm (outbreak) at Feb 19th and right now the third in a row at a different (lower) place is going on.



Source and Link
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The tornado in CA yesterday was confirmed by the NWS.

"NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONFIRMED AN EF0 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN AT APPROXIMATELY 130PM JUST SOUTH OF GERBER, CA, OR 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF LOS MOLINOS, CA. (STO)"
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Quoting hydrus:
The tribes of South America are a good example. They have amazing instincts that help them to prosper in the most dense rain forests in the world, and they have done so for thousands of years.


Ask any hunter or fisherman who frequents the same hunting and fishing spots for years on end.....You get to know every hole and crevice over time and know pretty much when the game and fish will be there.

Getting your kids and children outdoors and teaching them to live off the land if they have too is a great thing and develops their/ours "genetic" survival instinct........Get them out of the city and into the wilderness.

I have several honey holes (accessible by wading from land) and will never starve to death as long as I can build a fire, if I need to, to cook the fish.............. :)
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Dr. Greg Forbes Torcon Index..added some 5s..

Thursday, Feb. 21

Scattered severe thunderstorms in east TX, LA, MS, south AR, spreading overnight into west AL, west FL panhandle.

TORCON
AL west-central, southwest night - 3 to 4
AR south - less than 2
FL west panhandle night - 2 to 3
LA central - 5
LA north - 3
LA south - 3
MS north - 3
MS south - 3 to 4
MS central - 4
TX east-central - 5
TX northeast - 3
TX southeast - 2 to 3
other areas - 1 or less
Friday, Feb. 22

Scattered severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rain in southeast LA, extreme southeast MS, south and east-central AL, central and southwest GA, west FL panhandle. TORCON - 3 these areas. A lower chance of an isolated severe thunderstorm in southeast GA, southeast SC.
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Quoting Jedkins01:



Animals seem to be much more "in tune" with their intuitive intelligence than modern man. Maybe it's because animals need to in order to survive, because humans have it too. Ancient cultures and primitive cultures today seem to know certain things intuitively that is amazing. I think sadly modern man has somewhat rejected the value of intuitive thinking just because we don't necessarily need it for survival anymore unlike early man, or at least we think we don't need it!

It's actually is very important in meteorology for accurate forecasting.


Of course I'm implying a balance of both logical decisions/thoughts and intuitive.
The tribes of South America are a good example. They have amazing instincts that help them to prosper in the most dense rain forests in the world, and they have done so for thousands of years.
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Quoting yonzabam:
I've just finished reading an excellent expose of the insurance industry and some of the dodges they use to avoid payment. One example was a woman who had taken out insurance against having to cancel a flight. She put $1,090 on the form as the cost of the ticket, but because the actual cost was 1,092.50, the insurance company refused to pay out.

My main interest in the article was a brilliant expose of financial derivatives insurance, a very arcane area that even those involved in it don't understand. They use mathematical 'models' that work okay for a while, but will fail during a systemic collapse. That's okay, though. They'll have gotten rich collecting the premiums before that happens.

But, I digress. A small portion of the article deals with hurricane insurance. Here's a cut and paste for those interested:

Weather damage to property is increasingly problematic for insurers, particularly in areas prone to experiencing such damage. Exclusions and deductibles are increasing, and damage from multiple causes may not be covered, even if one of those causes is:

After Hurricane Irene hit in August 2011, more insurers tucked hefty wind and hurricane deductibles into their policies. They run 2 percent to 5 percent of the insured value of your home, says Charles Hahn, an insurance agent in Little Falls, New Jersey, where "we're known for flooding a lot."

Keep in mind that many insurers have "anti-concurrent causation clauses" in policies now that say if you have damage from multiple causes, say wind and flooding, where wind is covered but flooding is not - they won't cover anything at all.

Some major classes of home risks may not be insurable at all, even if one has insurance for related issues. People may not realize the exclusions that apply to their policies:

Amidst the power outages, gas shortages, mass transit shutdowns and school closures left behind in Superstorm Sandy's wake, there's one issue few people are talking about, and that's the cost that homeowners will incur from mold damage. Aside from the health risks associated with mold from flooding, mold removal is extremely costly and is not covered by most home insurance policies, according to the San Francisco Chronicle.

The average homeowner could be forced to shell out anywhere from $200 to $30,000 for mold removal. In a recent report on Sandy's destruction obtained by Business Insider, Citi strategist Jeffrey Berenbaum wrote, "mold damage could likely be the largest risk to properties that remain flooded for weeks."



Good old U.S. constitution actually protects their "right" to do that too.

The "Ex Post Facto" law thing actually prevents the government from doing "what should have been done" after the fact. So as long as something is legal, they can do it and get away with it, even if it should have been illegal all along, regardless of how ever evil or unethical it may be.

It's the biggest reason there will always be legal loopholes. Corporations have teams of lawyers looking for ways to abuse this around the clock.
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Re: Insurance & Claims.

I have had 2 issues in the past.
One when my car was stolen and recovered partly stripped down.
The Insurance man said "But we cannot pay for what the value of the car was because it's no longer all there" or words to that effect.
They settled in full when I responded accordingly.

The second was when a part of my house was damaged by a landslide.
The Ins. man said "Yes, you have landslide Insurance, but this is a landslip for which you are not covered"
They settled in full due to appropriate responses, too.

In short, they will try every way to get out of settling. That's their profits you are asking for.
But (here, at least) they will pay up when you are aware of your rights and make the right noises.

Forewarned is Forearmed.
Know your rights.
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I've just finished reading an excellent expose of the insurance industry and some of the dodges they use to avoid payment. One example was a woman who had taken out insurance against having to cancel a flight. She put $1,090 on the form as the cost of the ticket, but because the actual cost was 1,092.50, the insurance company refused to pay out.

My main interest in the article was a brilliant expose of financial derivatives insurance, a very arcane area that even those involved in it don't understand. They use mathematical 'models' that work okay for a while, but will fail during a systemic collapse. That's okay, though. They'll have gotten rich collecting the premiums before that happens.

But, I digress. A small portion of the article deals with hurricane insurance. Here's a cut and paste for those interested:

Weather damage to property is increasingly problematic for insurers, particularly in areas prone to experiencing such damage. Exclusions and deductibles are increasing, and damage from multiple causes may not be covered, even if one of those causes is:

After Hurricane Irene hit in August 2011, more insurers tucked hefty wind and hurricane deductibles into their policies. They run 2 percent to 5 percent of the insured value of your home, says Charles Hahn, an insurance agent in Little Falls, New Jersey, where "we're known for flooding a lot."

Keep in mind that many insurers have "anti-concurrent causation clauses" in policies now that say if you have damage from multiple causes, say wind and flooding, where wind is covered but flooding is not - they won't cover anything at all.

Some major classes of home risks may not be insurable at all, even if one has insurance for related issues. People may not realize the exclusions that apply to their policies:

Amidst the power outages, gas shortages, mass transit shutdowns and school closures left behind in Superstorm Sandy's wake, there's one issue few people are talking about, and that's the cost that homeowners will incur from mold damage. Aside from the health risks associated with mold from flooding, mold removal is extremely costly and is not covered by most home insurance policies, according to the San Francisco Chronicle.

The average homeowner could be forced to shell out anywhere from $200 to $30,000 for mold removal. In a recent report on Sandy's destruction obtained by Business Insider, Citi strategist Jeffrey Berenbaum wrote, "mold damage could likely be the largest risk to properties that remain flooded for weeks."
Member Since: July 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2900
Wow, folks, discussion became so smart that my poor skills in English won't be sufficient to take an active part, lol (but very interesting to read anyway, thank you all!). So just some windy news from Germany for now.


Wind Blows German Power Swings to Five-Year High: Energy

By Rachel Morison & Julia Mengewein - Feb 19, 2013 2:49 PM GMT+0100

Germany is getting more power than ever before from sources dependent on wind and sunshine, pushing short-term price swings to the biggest in five years and boosting volume as utilities increase trading.

The gap between the highest and lowest price over two months for electricity deliverable the next day widened to the most since December 2007 through yesterday, according to broker data compiled by Bloomberg. German wind output peaked at a record 23,331 megawatts on Jan. 31, enough to supply 46 million homes. That compares with an average of 5,079 megawatts during 2012, data from European Energy Exchange AG on Bloomberg show.

Source and the whole article
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905. VR46L
Quoting Jedkins01:



Ehhh it depends, Southern Alabama and Southern Mississippi? Yes, they've had enough, Northern Florida and the panhandle, definitely not, we need a lot more rain here along with much of Georgia, the grass behind my apartment is still yellow and dry, most creeks around here barely have any water in them. We are classified as moderate drought in much of the panhandle and big bend of Florida.


I was thinking especially South MS and LA ...
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6834
Quoting TomTaylor:
That's one way to interpret it, but it's not entirely true. A theory may indeed be true and never be proven false. Experimental results are not facts either. There's no such thing as a perfect experiment. There will always be a source of error, no matter how small.
well, in general terms, error results are the fact.. it's a feedback loop, and any experiment that produces facts then become subject to analysis, and new fictions are provided to substantiate, and all along a 'truth' eludes... note that "truth" does not equal "true", just as "facts" do not equal "accuracy"
;)
in my line of thinking, all ideas require interpretive flexibility.. such a notion stems from an understanding that our senses are ruled by paradox. as long as humans produce the experiment, the results will be flawed.. may the exercise of science guide us to the smallest margin of error!!
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this is the JMA model.

GOOD GRACIOUS!!!







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Quoting VR46L:


Thats an awful amount of precip for the Northern Gulf ..

From what I have heard they already have enough for a while...



Ehhh it depends, Southern Alabama and Southern Mississippi? Yes, they've had enough, Northern Florida and the panhandle, definitely not, we need a lot more rain here along with much of Georgia, the grass behind my apartment is still yellow and dry, most creeks around here barely have any water in them. We are classified as moderate drought in much of the panhandle and big bend of Florida.
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901. VR46L
Quoting PedleyCA:


Looks good for the Duels on Thursday.


True ! its about the only area that will not have something going on weatherwize I heard the Golf was abandoned in Arizona due to snow today
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6834
Quoting Minnemike:
let us, Jed, avoid the event horizon of theological discussion, but yes, you've stumbled upon a couple reasonable conclusions i live with daily :)
a greatest miracle ever, to me, would be our existence as a meaningless happenstance, and the love that we are capable of experiencing, giving, and the existence of happiness in general... any other explanation to existence would just diminish that ;)
with a grasp of illusory perception, one gains a steady foothold on constructing value!



haha I gotcha
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Quoting VR46L:


Thats an awful amount of precip for the Northern Gulf ..

From what I have heard they already have enough for a while...


Yes it is unfortunately :(

this is the map through 240 hours..the GFS shows no mercy for the panhandle

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Quoting Xyrus2000:


Actually, they do. It's been replicated in labs. You can also kind of replicate it at any sceince museam that has one of those fluid filled "planets" that you can spin to create a "Jupiter". Spin the globe fast to get all the fluid inside streaking then stop the globe. At the "pole" you'll see vortices develope and start rotating around each other. I you did it right, there will be 7 vortices: one right at the pole, and 6 others around the polar vortex that form a hexagonal pattern.


Just amazing. Thanks.
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897. VR46L
Quoting ncstorm:
the 12z GFS precip map up to 120 hours



Thats an awful amount of precip for the Northern Gulf ..

From what I have heard they already have enough for a while...
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6834

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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