Arctic sea ice volume now one-fifth its 1979 level

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:52 AM GMT on February 19, 2013

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The stunning loss of Arctic sea ice extent in recent years is undeniable--satellite measurements have conclusively shown that half of the Arctic sea ice went missing in September 2012, compared to the average September during 1979 - 2000. But the extent of ice cover is not the best measure of how the fire raging in Earth's attic is affecting sea ice--the total volume of the ice is more important. But up until 2010, we didn't have the measurements needed to say how the total volume of ice in the Arctic might be changing. Scientists relied on the University of Washington PIOMAS model, which suggested that the loss of Arctic sea ice volume during September might be approaching 75% - 80%. The model results were widely criticized by climate change skeptics as being unrealistic. However, in April 2010, a new satellite called Cryostat-2 was launched, which can measure ice volume by beaming pulses of microwave energy off of the ice. With two years of data to Cryosat-2 data to analyze, the results of the PIOMAS model have now been confirmed by a study published on-line in February 2013 in Geophysical Research Letters. In a University of Washington news release, co-author Axel Schweiger said, "people had argued that 75 to 80 percent ice volume loss was too aggressive. What this new paper shows is that our ice loss estimates may have been too conservative, and that the recent decline is possibly more rapid." The U.K.'s Natural Environmental Research Council reported that the team of scientists found that from 2003 to 2012, the volume of Arctic sea ice declined 36% in the autumn and 9% in the winter. The measure of sea ice volume is a good indicator of how the Arctic's most stable, "multi-year" ice is fairing. As the multi-year ice declines, sea ice extent, the total area covered by sea ice, in an "Arctic death spiral". The new study shows that thick, multi-year ice has disappeared in areas north of Greenland, around the Canadian Archipelago, and to the northeast of Svalbard, Norway.


Figure 1. Arctic sea ice volume in thousands of cubic kilometers during the September minimum in 1979 compared to 2012, as estimated by the University of Washington PIOMAS model. Arctic seas ice volume has declined by more than a factor of five. Image credit; Andy Lee Robinson.


Figure 2. The Polar-5 aircraft, carrying the EM instrument that was used to validate Cryosat-2 sea ice thickness measurements, flying over the validation site. Image credit: R. Willatt.

Why care about Arctic sea ice loss?
If you remove an area of sea ice 43% the size of the contiguous U.S. from the ocean, like occurred in September 2012, it is guaranteed to have a significant impact on weather and climate. The extra heat and moisture added to the atmosphere as a result of all that open water over the pole may already be altering jet stream patterns in fall and winter, bringing an increase in extreme weather events. The record sea ice loss in 2012 also contributed to an unprecedented melting event in Greenland. Continued sea ice loss will further increase melting from Greenland, contributing to sea level rise and storm surge damages. Sea ice loss will also continue to crank up the thermostat over Arctic permafrost regions. This will potentially release a significant fraction of the vast amounts of carbon currently locked in the permafrost, further accelerating global warming.

Related Posts
Earth's attic is on fire: Arctic sea ice bottoms out at a new record low (September 2012)
Half of the polar ice cap is missing: Arctic sea ice hits a new record low. September 6, 2012 blog post
Wunderground's Sea Ice page
Arctic Death Spiral Bombshell: CryoSat-2 Confirms Sea Ice Volume Has Collapsed by Joe Romm at climateprogress.org.

Jeff Masters and Angela Fritz

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Quoting pottery:

Forgetting?
Or remembering??

Sorry, but what are you two talking about. Oh wait, maybe you've forgotten already. LOL
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Geeeze! I remember when 256 kb of system ram was a big deal! I remember my first 250 mg. hard drive saying to myself, "I would never fill this up!". I remember how to edit the Autoexec.bat file and the Config.sys file. I remember when Wolfenstein was the best looking game ever! .... I remember some other things too, but I forget what they are right now.
My first computer - a KayPro back in the early '80s - had no hard drive: the OS would boot up when you turned the computer on, but to use a program you had to insert a floppy disk. Then to save anything, you inserted another floppy disk in the second drive slot. Man, I really felt accomplished when I finally wrote a little program in Basic.

On the other hand, many years later I used the experience with that KayPro and an early HP to get around the network on the computer I had at work. Hehehe.
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
northeastern Arkansas under an Ice storm warning

WITH ICE ACCRUALS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...
WITH LOCALLY UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.


be careful there, very careful. Ice is twice or more as dangerous as snow.

I would prefer 2-4inches of snow than 1/4 to 3/4 inch of ice. A local radio DJ fell and broke his leg while on holiday in Saint Petersburg. He said when he was taken to the hospital, the waiting room was filled with people with broken bones all from slipping on ice.
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Quoting pottery:

Forgetting?
Or remembering??


Gee, I forgot which.
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Quoting Grothar:


It's kind of a nice break in the day, isn't it???

Forgetting?
Or remembering??
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Geeeze! I remember when 256 kb of system ram was a big deal! I remember my first 250 mg. hard drive saying to myself, "I would never fill this up!". I remember how to edit the Autoexec.bat file and the Config.sys file. I remember when Wolfenstein was the best looking game ever! .... I remember some other things too, but I forget what they are right now.


It's kind of a nice break in the day, isn't it???
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
A state of emergency has been declared for Kansas.


wise decision...after having the whole state for 7" of snow and localized 2'
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
A state of emergency has been declared for Kansas.
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Quoting Jedkins01:



Yeah, prosper doesn't necessarily refer to monetary increase, it can mean number of things...

I would consider myself a prosperous person, yet I have a monthly budget of $220 after rent for college which certainly isn't very wealthy, even less when you consider that 220 has to cover insurance for my truck, gas, grocery bills, phone bill, well anything other than my rent and internet fee.

Prospering to me includes a number of things, peace, joy, meaningfulness, however, I think it best describes overcoming obstacles overall in your life, regardless of their difficulty.
When we pull back and look at the larger view of humanity, not limited by the industrialized western culture American Dream consumer driven everything disposable paradigm (if that in fact is possible) we quickly find that happiness can be as basic as waking up, being able to breath, having water and food, having a child survive, not being forced into prostitution, being able to take a bathroom break while working in a factory... etc.. It is just too easy to be detached from reality and think that our biggest problem is deciding whether to eat at McDonalds or Burger King for dinner.. imho
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Yep, I think I counted about 5 snow flurries here this morning, lol. I believe it was the very last remnants of some lake effect bands.


I was surprised... some big puffy ones here too
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I have checked all the models and info now... I know it's still 3 days out..
Right now I keep it at 50-50 chance, not buying models yet.

By the way...surprisingly it was snowing here in the morning...nothing to worry about, did you get something there?

Yep, I think I counted about 5 snow flurries here this morning, lol. I believe it was the very last remnants of some lake effect bands.
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Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Gonna be too warm even for me to get much I think. Maybe a wet 4-7", but if models keep trending north and warmer, it'll be even less. Of course a southward trend and we'd be in business! You guys down there will need a bigger shift south for much snow, but it's still possible, after all we're 3 days out.


I have checked all the models and info now... I know it's still 3 days out..
Right now I keep it at 50-50 chance, not buying models yet.

By the way...surprisingly it was snowing here in the morning...nothing to worry about, did you get something there?
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
We picked up 2 inches of snow this morning, changed back to rain tho, 34 and rainy right now.

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Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
@ MAboy1

Any changes with the nor'easter...not looking for snow here as much as you might.

Gonna be too warm even for me to get much I think. Maybe a wet 4-7", but if models keep trending north and warmer, it'll be even less. Of course a southward trend and we'd be in business! You guys down there will need a bigger shift south for much snow, but it's still possible, after all we're 3 days out.
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Quoting tornadodude:


Agreed, supposed to ice here tonight in OKC, I have to drive to work around 10:30 tonight, should be at or just below freezing then with either snow or freezing rain falling. My car might not be able to make it, definitely will have to play the waiting game.


for us, law says to drive at 10 mph max, not not drive at all
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting tornadodude:


Agreed, supposed to ice here tonight in OKC, I have to drive to work around 10:30 tonight, should be at or just below freezing then with either snow or freezing rain falling. My car might not be able to make it, definitely will have to play the waiting game.


Be careful out there when you drive.
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14266
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
northeastern Arkansas under an Ice storm warning

WITH ICE ACCRUALS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...
WITH LOCALLY UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.


be careful there, very careful. Ice is twice or more as dangerous as snow.


Agreed, supposed to ice here tonight in OKC, I have to drive to work around 10:30 tonight, should be at or just below freezing then with either snow or freezing rain falling. My car might not be able to make it, definitely will have to play the waiting game.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Thanks to Nemo, Boston, Massachusetts has already experienced its seventh snowiest February on record, with 32.0 inches. It will take 9.6 inches for Boston to obtain the record position; according to the GFS, this may not be so far-fetched.

Best shot for snow in this area is Saturday-Sunday, models are trending warmer so it looks like a lot of rain, maybe 3-5" of snow for Boston would be my thoughts. Ski country's gonna get nailed though!
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@ MAboy1

Any changes with the nor'easter...not looking for snow here as much as you might.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
northeastern Arkansas under an Ice storm warning

WITH ICE ACCRUALS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH...
WITH LOCALLY UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.


be careful there, very careful. Ice is twice or more as dangerous as snow.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
gotta get them shovels...


earlier GFS run
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Thanks to Nemo, Boston, Massachusetts has already experienced its seventh snowiest February on record, with 32.0 inches. It will take 9.6 inches for Boston to obtain the record position; according to the GFS, this may not be so far-fetched.
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In off work...this is what I see.



A major winter and Ice storm.

People in this area better prepare for power outages, travel delays (possibly travel bans) and eventually think of alternative routes because some may be buried in snow.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Was it an RLL or an MFM hard drive?

The 250 mg hard drive I bought was a Conner IDE hard drive that came with its own 8 bit controller card.


Oh wow LOL I wouldn't even know. The first computer we had was when I was a kid, was a Texas Instruments around 1979 or 1980. All I knew how to do on it, was input about 6 pages of code to make some block figure! haha If you did it just right he'd also move. I think my mom used it like a glorified word processor. My folkes were always keen on the newest technology though. 'My' first computer, no idea either. Was a Compaq Presario back in 1998, no memory of anything technical about it though. But I was 100% happy with it at the time!

And wow...Haruna looking quite impressive for 80mph...what a HUGE eye
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Quoting JNCali:
not sure i would use "prosper" maybe "survive"? Of course opening the door to the debate of what "Prosper" actually means... :/



Yeah, prosper doesn't necessarily refer to monetary increase, it can mean number of things...

I would consider myself a prosperous person, yet I have a monthly budget of $220 after rent for college which certainly isn't very wealthy, even less when you consider that 220 has to cover insurance for my truck, gas, grocery bills, phone bill, well anything other than my rent and internet fee.

Prospering to me includes a number of things, peace, joy, meaningfulness, however, I think it best describes overcoming obstacles overall in your life, regardless of their difficulty.
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Quoting JNCali:
not sure i would use "prosper" maybe "survive"? Of course opening the door to the debate of what "Prosper" actually means... :/

Sometimes I think I would rather survive than prosper.
Later when I think about it,I know, I would rather survive than prosper.
For thousands, if not tens of thousands of years people survived quite well without any thought of prospering.
Now with the prospect of being able to evolve into a prospering sub species they are discontent with their lot and want to emulate the success of others, IE, the posperers.
Meanwhile a lot of the "children," of the prosperers are reverting back to a basic survival mentality. Que sera, sera!
A sort of recycling of atitudes.
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This is from this morning



Overnight, crazy Oklahoma weather

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Quoting Doppler22:

That is alot of warnings... I might get some snow Friday night... Will it give you any snow?

I am expecting some snow, but nothing more than an inch or two.
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Quoting kwgirl:
I agree with you PlazaRed. I think we have already passed the point of no return as far as human interference is concerned. But what do I know, I'm a bean counter.LOL

Looking at emission evolution and postulating its development, I would be inclined to say that given even the present levels of polution we probably wouldn't have a hope in hell.
To the above I might add that as we increase the population along with the technology that the population has available to itself to consume more greenhouse producing gases then at the end of the day, which might not be that far away we have passed the point of no return.
As humanity sags into decline as a result of its overzealous consumption of fossil fuels then the percentages of damaging gases will gradually fall, eventually a sort of status quo will be reached to allow population increase to reappear but the next time around there wont be any oil left!
Having driveled on about this for years now, I still dont have a solution, as I can see no way that the atmosphere can be easily returned to its pre industrial ratios and percentages of component gases!
It doesn't matter if you count beans, or pilot jumbo jets, we are all in, or rather on this planet together.
Good evening everybody.
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The latest 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature graphics show below normal temperatures for much of the country, especially in the southern 3/4's of the country. By the end of the period there is a warm-up in the west but more of the east gets cooler. First though, we have to get through this winter storm and severe weather event.

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Modis 1km. Image of Huruna from earlier today




Latest visible from Navy/NRL..





Haruna forecasted to clip Madagascar..
Someone's gonna have a bad day..
I would hate to be in a boat out there..


Another Modis Image from Navy/NRL


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965. j2008
Gotta love Arizona for the weather. During lunch today we were treated with a snow storm. Then about 3 hours later its all melted (All of the inch that we received).
They say we could receive more tonight. Tucson weather is crazy..... I will now let all of you get back to your regularly scheduled program.
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964. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02
6:00 AM JST February 21 2013
======================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sulu Sea

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 7.4N 119.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 7.3N 115.7E - 35 knots (CAT1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
963. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Quoting barbamz:


Lol, first reading was funny! But indeed: Europa
To explain: "Europa" = "Europe" in German.


that would be strange to think of Europe in the southern hemisphere, LOL

I think usually they mention that area as Europa Island but not this time.
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Was it an RLL or an MFM hard drive?

The 250 mg hard drive I bought was a Conner IDE hard drive that came with its own 8 bit controller card.


I'm ashamed to say I can't remember. I do remember that the "PC Clone" I had it in had an 8088 processor. I remember upgrading to the 80386 Turbo and being completely floored by the improvement.

Just saw my first flake here in Louisville. Snow has started in Denver:



But it's still quiet in Nederland:



EDIT - 11:28GMT - snow has begun in Nederland and is coming down in earnest here in Louisville. Not gonna get my hopes up yet, but even a dusting is better than the blazing sun (for our water balance).
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A web briefing from @NWSDesMoines has been made available for tomorrow's approaching storm:

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Quoting 1900hurricane:
From HGX:

PRECIP COVERAGE WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS
PREFRONTAL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND JET BECOMES MORE
FAVORABLY POSITIONED. INSTABILITY STILL SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...BUT
SHEAR HIGH. IN ADDITION...CELL MOTION ITSELF SHOULD BE FAST
(PROBABLY 44-55MPH) AND IT WON`T TAKE MUCH FOR EVEN BENIGN
LOOKING CELLS TO THROW DOWN SOME DAMAGING WINDS. STILL APPEARS NE
1/3-1/2 OF THE CWA WILL SEE THE BETTER SHOT OF SEEING ANY SEVERE
WX BUT CAN`T REALLY RULE IT OUT ANYWHERE GIVEN THREAT OF STRONG
WINDS MIXING DOWN. BELIEVE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE THIN BAND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PREFRONTAL TROF.



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LCH does not seem excited at all.

.DISCUSSION...

FOR TONIGHT...THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AIRSTREAM WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED...AS THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STEERS CARIBBEAN
AIR THROUGH THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN AIR...UPON UPSLIDING THE WARM FRONTAL SURFACE...WILL
GENERATE STRATUS. AN ASSOCIATED 4 C-DEGREE ADVECTION INVERSION WILL
CAP THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER.

FURTHER-UP...ANOTHER ADVECTION INVERSION SEPARATES INCOMING
CARIBBEAN AIR BELOW...FROM INTRUDING TEXAS AIR ABOVE.

THE TWO HORIZONTAL STABLE LAYERS WILL DISCOURAGE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

FOR THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE WESTERN
UPPER GULF COAST STATES. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE RUNNING
NEAR 1.7 INCHES...WHICH IS OVER TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE
FEBRUARY NORMAL.

THE COMBINED LIFT WILL BE MEAGER...THE FRONTAL LIFT DOES NOT
COMPLETELY COUPLE WITH THE JET STREAK LIFT (ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MERGED SUBTROPICAL-POLAR FRONT JET).

THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INSTABILITY. ELEVATED
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED.

THE CAVEAT TO THE LACK OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE THE SHEAR.
THE GFS MODEL DEPICTS FORECAST HORSESHOE HODOGRAPHS NEAR DAWN.
SHORT-LIVED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT.

ORGANIZED LONG-LIVED THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS LESS LIKELY.

FINALLY...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT...MAINLY FOR
NUISANCE FLOODING AT THE COAST...DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Haruna is currently about 70 km east of Europa.


Lol, first reading was funny! But indeed: Europa
To explain: "Europa" = "Europe" in German.
Member Since: October 25, 2008 Posts: 54 Comments: 5944
Quoting hydrus:
The tribes of South America are a good example. They have amazing instincts that help them to prosper in the most dense rain forests in the world, and they have done so for thousands of years.
not sure i would use "prosper" maybe "survive"? Of course opening the door to the debate of what "Prosper" actually means... :/
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From HGX:

PRECIP COVERAGE WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS
PREFRONTAL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND JET BECOMES MORE
FAVORABLY POSITIONED. INSTABILITY STILL SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...BUT
SHEAR HIGH. IN ADDITION...CELL MOTION ITSELF SHOULD BE FAST
(PROBABLY 44-55MPH) AND IT WON`T TAKE MUCH FOR EVEN BENIGN
LOOKING CELLS TO THROW DOWN SOME DAMAGING WINDS. STILL APPEARS NE
1/3-1/2 OF THE CWA WILL SEE THE BETTER SHOT OF SEEING ANY SEVERE
WX BUT CAN`T REALLY RULE IT OUT ANYWHERE GIVEN THREAT OF STRONG
WINDS MIXING DOWN. BELIEVE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE THIN BAND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PREFRONTAL TROF.
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I got bored so I made a chart showing the damage total as a result of Atlantic hurricanes since 2000.

Not adjusted for inflation.

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Quoting MrMixon:


My first harddrive held 20MB (that's megabytes with an "M"). Never did fill that thing up...

Please oh please let this system materialize for the Front Range Foothills:



We are in desperate need of snow. Shoot, I made it out of my driveway in two wheel drive this morning... and it's February!



Was it an RLL or an MFM hard drive?

The 250 mg hard drive I bought was a Conner IDE hard drive that came with its own 8 bit controller card.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4737
953. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
CYCLONE TROPICAL HARUNA (09-20122013)
22:00 PM RET February 20 2013
=======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Haruna (965 hPa) located at 22.3S 41.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 2 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=======================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 55 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Storm Force Winds
=================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 75 NM in the northwestern quadrant, and up to 80 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
===================
100 NM radius from the center, extending up to 105 NM in the northwestern quadrant, up to 110 NM in the southeastern quadrant, and up to 130 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
110 NM radius from the center, extending up to 120 NM in the northwestern quadrant, up to 130 NM in the southeastern quadrant, and up to 150 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 22.7S 41.7E - 90 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 22.7S 42.5E - 90 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)

48 HRS: 24.7S 45.0E - 30 knots (Depression sur Terre)
72 HRS: 26.9S 47.9E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
========================
Haruna is intensifying and show now a wide but very well defined eye (diameter around 65 NM). Definition of the eye is improving since 1630z. Current intensity estimate is based on 3 hours manual dvorak average and is in agreement with most of latest available intensity analysis (KNES at 90 knots, PGTW at 79 knots, Advanced Dvorak Technique at 87 knots at 18z and SATCON at 71 knots at 1400z).

Haruna is currently about 70 km east of Europa. The small island went through the eyewall between 1200z and 1500z. Top gusts reached 78 knots near 1430z (max 10 min winds at 47 knots near 1200z) and mean sea level pressure reached a min at 981.2 hPa near 1400z.

Within the next hours, system is expected to move slowly or quasi-stationary. Beyond, most of available numerical weather prediction models are in agreement for a generally eastward to eastwards and then southeastwards track under the steering influence of a broad mid level trough transiting south of 30.0S and a strengthening ridge in the northeast, but rather significant differences remain in chronology and cap variations.

RSMC official forecast track remains on continuity of the previous track. One should note that the latest ECMWF outputs (not taken into account here) delayed the time of landfall (Friday evening or Friday night).

Over high energetic potential seas (29-30C) and under the upper level ridge, system is expected to strengthen within the next 24-36 hours before landfall that is expected Friday. However as the system is still expected to move little, a temporarily weakening trend could occur until the system will move away from system self-induced cool waters ..

Haruna presents an important threat for the south-western coasts of Madagascar that should be to impinge within the next 2/3 days. Currently, coastal areas between Morombe and Cape Sainte-Marie is the potential landfall area. Inhabitants of this area should monitor the evolution of this system and stay tuned with information provided by their national weather services.

System is expected to return oversea Friday to Saturday night and to keep a east southeastward track without notable re-intensification due to environmental conditions becoming unfavorable (strong northwesterly wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures).
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906 barbamz: Wind Blows German Power Swings to Five-Year High
It's possible for wholesale electricity prices to fall below zero if supply exceeds demand, prompting utilities to pay consumers to take delivery because power, unlike other commodities, can't be stored. Day-ahead prices turned negative for the first time in December amid above-average wind output, low demand and mild temperatures for the season.
916 Jedkins01: Those darned intelligent Germans getting ahead in the game again...

Most of the US also has the slowest Internet in the FirstWorld. The "best Congress money can buy" never interferes with crooks making HUGE profits from providing horrendously bad service.

918 barbamz: :-P lol, Jedkins. But it costs us some money...

Not nearly as much as it costs Americans.
(The link I posted below is good. The TechnologyReview link to the LBLL report is dead.)
In 2011, residential solar system installers paid a little over $1.80 per watt for solar panels in both Germany and the United States.
In Germany, installers added $1.20...But in the U.S., they tacked on $4.36 per watt, more than three times as much. [~3&2/3rds times as much]
The most marked difference is in the cost of acquiring customers. German installers spend $0.07 per watt of installed capacity on things like marketing and designing systems for specific customers. U.S. installers spend 10 times that amount.
Costs for permitting, connecting the systems to the grid, and having them inspected are also far higher in the United States. The Germans spent only $0.03 a watt on these things, while U.S. installers spend $0.20, in part because of larger amounts of paperwork and the fact that U.S. installers have to pay permitting fees.
U.S. installers also spend more on labor during actual installation (in some cases, higher winds force more expensive installations). They pay more in sales tax (German installers are exempt). And they pay more for overhead (which is closely related to economies of scale).
The [LawrenceBerkelyLivermoreLabratory] report lists some more line items. Part of the difference, for example, is due to higher costs for inverters in the U.S. But the report comes short of explaining...about $1.30 of the price difference...The researchers speculate that some part of that difference is coming from U.S. installers [and financiers] taking higher profits.
Australian windfarms produce electricity at lower cost than new coal-fired plants
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It's not really the raw SST anomaly in the Gulf of Guinea so much as the difference between the tropical eastern Atlantic and the gulf that matters. That difference is still near neutral. It's come down a bit during the winter.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647
Quoting wxchaser97:
A large part of the central US is under some form of a winter weather alert, and this area may expand even more.

That is alot of warnings... I might get some snow Friday night... Will it give you any snow?
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Geeeze! I remember when 256 kb of system ram was a big deal! I remember my first 250 mg. hard drive saying to myself, "I would never fill this up!". I remember how to edit the Autoexec.bat file and the Config.sys file. I remember when Wolfenstein was the best looking game ever! .... I remember some other things too, but I forget what they are right now.


My first harddrive held 20MB (that's megabytes with an "M"). Never did fill that thing up...

Please oh please let this system materialize for the Front Range Foothills:



We are in desperate need of snow. Shoot, I made it out of my driveway in two wheel drive this morning... and it's February!

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18z GFS precip map-120 hours in..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15299
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi Levi. You see the ITCZ lifting northward earlier than normal? I ask because the Gulf of Guinea is warm at this time.



The North American multi-model average seems to think so. The belt of above-normal precipitation north of the belt of below-normal precipitation tells us that.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26647

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.