Arctic sea ice volume now one-fifth its 1979 level

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:52 AM GMT on February 19, 2013

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The stunning loss of Arctic sea ice extent in recent years is undeniable--satellite measurements have conclusively shown that half of the Arctic sea ice went missing in September 2012, compared to the average September during 1979 - 2000. But the extent of ice cover is not the best measure of how the fire raging in Earth's attic is affecting sea ice--the total volume of the ice is more important. But up until 2010, we didn't have the measurements needed to say how the total volume of ice in the Arctic might be changing. Scientists relied on the University of Washington PIOMAS model, which suggested that the loss of Arctic sea ice volume during September might be approaching 75% - 80%. The model results were widely criticized by climate change skeptics as being unrealistic. However, in April 2010, a new satellite called Cryostat-2 was launched, which can measure ice volume by beaming pulses of microwave energy off of the ice. With two years of data to Cryosat-2 data to analyze, the results of the PIOMAS model have now been confirmed by a study published on-line in February 2013 in Geophysical Research Letters. In a University of Washington news release, co-author Axel Schweiger said, "people had argued that 75 to 80 percent ice volume loss was too aggressive. What this new paper shows is that our ice loss estimates may have been too conservative, and that the recent decline is possibly more rapid." The U.K.'s Natural Environmental Research Council reported that the team of scientists found that from 2003 to 2012, the volume of Arctic sea ice declined 36% in the autumn and 9% in the winter. The measure of sea ice volume is a good indicator of how the Arctic's most stable, "multi-year" ice is fairing. As the multi-year ice declines, sea ice extent, the total area covered by sea ice, in an "Arctic death spiral". The new study shows that thick, multi-year ice has disappeared in areas north of Greenland, around the Canadian Archipelago, and to the northeast of Svalbard, Norway.


Figure 1. Arctic sea ice volume in thousands of cubic kilometers during the September minimum in 1979 compared to 2012, as estimated by the University of Washington PIOMAS model. Arctic seas ice volume has declined by more than a factor of five. Image credit; Andy Lee Robinson.


Figure 2. The Polar-5 aircraft, carrying the EM instrument that was used to validate Cryosat-2 sea ice thickness measurements, flying over the validation site. Image credit: R. Willatt.

Why care about Arctic sea ice loss?
If you remove an area of sea ice 43% the size of the contiguous U.S. from the ocean, like occurred in September 2012, it is guaranteed to have a significant impact on weather and climate. The extra heat and moisture added to the atmosphere as a result of all that open water over the pole may already be altering jet stream patterns in fall and winter, bringing an increase in extreme weather events. The record sea ice loss in 2012 also contributed to an unprecedented melting event in Greenland. Continued sea ice loss will further increase melting from Greenland, contributing to sea level rise and storm surge damages. Sea ice loss will also continue to crank up the thermostat over Arctic permafrost regions. This will potentially release a significant fraction of the vast amounts of carbon currently locked in the permafrost, further accelerating global warming.

Related Posts
Earth's attic is on fire: Arctic sea ice bottoms out at a new record low (September 2012)
Half of the polar ice cap is missing: Arctic sea ice hits a new record low. September 6, 2012 blog post
Wunderground's Sea Ice page
Arctic Death Spiral Bombshell: CryoSat-2 Confirms Sea Ice Volume Has Collapsed by Joe Romm at climateprogress.org.

Jeff Masters and Angela Fritz

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147. VR46L
Quoting yonzabam:


I think he means 'the continent'. In the UK, 'Europe' is often used as shorthand for 'continental Europe', which the UK is not part of.


But is an incorrect term strictly speaking, I am a European but not living on the Continent.
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Quoting KarenRei:


Iceland's not in Europe?


I think he means 'the continent'. In the UK, 'Europe' is often used as shorthand for 'continental Europe', which the UK is not part of.
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Quoting KarenRei:


Iceland's not in Europe?

O sorry, I forgot where you live. And of course I'm jealous, visiting the amazing webcams of Iceland nearly every day (very weather related!!!). But nevertheless, I'm not sure I would like to eat rotten shark :-)
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The EWMCF shows SIXTEEN hitting Madagascar as a powerful sub-960 Category 5.



The GFS shows it making landfall farther south as a much weaker 990 storm.

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16S is Moderate Tropical Storm Haruna.

WTIO30 FMEE 191241
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/9/20122013
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 9 (HARUNA)
2.A POSITION 2013/02/19 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.5 S / 41.2 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL
TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH 5 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :83 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 330 SW: 190 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SW: 130 NW: 150
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2013/02/20 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 41.3 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2013/02/20 12 UTC: 22.4 S / 41.5 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2013/02/21 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 41.9 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2013/02/21 12 UTC: 23.1 S / 42.4 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2013/02/22 00 UTC: 23.1 S / 43.2 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2013/02/22 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 44.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2013/02/23 12 UTC: 25.5 S / 46.6 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
120H: 2013/02/24 12 UTC: 26.9 S / 49.3 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.0-
LATEST VIS AND MW IMAGERY SHOW THAT HARUNA IS BECOMING BETTER
ORGANISED, WITH SOME GOOD VORTICITY AND SOME BULDING INNER-CORE
FEATURES ALTHOUGH IT IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH A RATHER LARGE RMW.
WITHIN THE NEXT 24/48 HOURS, THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON DRIFTING
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TOWARD A WEAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL BELT.
BEYOND, NWP MODELS ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT FOR A GLOBALLY EAST TO
EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARDS TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A BROAD
MID LEVEL TROUGH TRANSITING SOUTH OF 30S.
IF THAT PHILOSOPHY SEEMS APPROVED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE, SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAINS IN CHRONOLOGY AND CAP VARIATION ...
ECMWF ENSEMBLE SYSTEM MEMBERS ARE ALL GLOBALLY ORIENTED NEAR THIS
FORECAST TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN MADAGASCAR ... AND THE PRESENT
FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENSEMBLE TRACKS.
OVER HIGH ENERGETIC POTENTIAL SEAS (29/30 DEGREES CELCIUS) AND UNDER
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN
UNTIL LANDFALL.THE SLOW TRACK EXPECTED BY RSMC SHOULD HOWEVER LIMIT
THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY DUE TO NEGATIVE OCEANIC RETRO-ACTION BY COOLING
WATER SURFACE.
HARUNA PRESENTS A POTENTIAL THREAT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF
MADAGASCAR WITH A POTENTIAL DIRECT HIT WITHIN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.
CURRENTLY, COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN MOROMBE AND SOUTHWARDS TO CAP
SAINTE-MARIE IS THE POTENTIAL LANDFALL AREA. UNHABITANTS OF THAT AREA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND STAY TUNED WITH
INFORMATIONS PROVIDED BY THEIR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES.=
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Quoting barbamz:


Ehhm, lol, you won't get most of this in Europe, because Europe is civilized ... j/k.


Iceland's not in Europe?

Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Mitigation efforts notwithstanding, and what nations might or might not do to address GW issues, it will be interesting for sure to see all the data unfolding over the next 20 years and "odd" weather patterns


For some of us, waiting through 20 years of warming for more data is more than a little thing. Snæfellsjökull, the glacier atop "snow mountain" that looms on Reykjavík's horizon on clear days, melted through enough to reveal its peak for the first time in history last summer. The whole glacier is expected to be gone in only 20-30 years
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Post 114. Whats this about snow in Florida? Would love to see it but doubtful.
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Looks like they finaly realized it is a TS

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You are what you eat...  Food for thought.
Quoting goosegirl1:


I'm not sure it so much an objection to eating horse, but more a request for disclosure. The horse is being sold as beef. Me, I would think one large herbivore would taste much like another,

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Good Morning. Mitigation efforts notwithstanding, and what nations might or might not do to address GW issues, it will be interesting for sure to see all the data unfolding over the next 20 years and "odd" weather patterns. A big domino, IMHO, will be to see what happens to the global ocean current circulations as well and if they alter over the next several decades.

Glad to be alive to see it unfold and hope that it is a "slow" process so as not to impact my children or grandchildren too negatively in their lifetimes. A few more years of this type of data and the Nations of the Earth will really need to rethink development strategies and prioritize reduction of carbon emissions over the coming decades, if the assumption is scientifically correct, that human causes are greatly accelerating this current warming trend.

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Quoting goosegirl1:


I'm not sure it so much an objection to eating horse, but more a request for disclosure. The horse is being sold as beef. Me, I would think one large herbivore would taste much like another,

Kangaroo and Deer taste different to beef. Both these have much much less fat. Both are very yummy.
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Quoting KarenRei:


The controversy seems kind of odd here, where horsemeat is readily available. It's not super-widely eaten but it is popular.

You could have it along with some whale, puffin, reindeer, rotted shark, and rotted skate if you wanted ;)


Ehhm, lol, you won't get most of this in Europe, because Europe is civilized ... j/k.

Edit: But better stop this discussion now, or someone of our new mods will walk in, *shiver, shiver*, lol.
BBL
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I see TWC is up to Winter Storm Q now.


"This winter storm was brought to you by the letter Q, the Number 0 and the Number 17"

0 because of the number of people that really care about this marketing trick, and 17 is the number of Winter Storms TWC has named.

LOL
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Quoting KarenRei:


The controversy seems kind of odd here, where horsemeat is readily available. It's not super-widely eaten but it is popular.

You could have it along with some whale, puffin, reindeer, rotted shark, and rotted skate if you wanted ;)

What is the horsemeat objection? I mean... what's the logic in eating animals like pigs and cows but not horses? Because horses are cuter?


I'm not sure it so much an objection to eating horse, but more a request for disclosure. The horse is being sold as beef. Me, I would think one large herbivore would taste much like another,
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Quoting aspectre:
Just jokin'. Found it funny that Dr.Masters did post on Tuesday WUtime, ie GMT

Earlier than that here...

Arctic sea ice volume now one-fifth its 1979 level

Posted by: JeffMasters, 1:52 PM EST on February 19, 2013.

It's now 12:28 AM EST February 20, 2013.
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Quoting KarenRei:


The controversy seems kind of odd here, where horsemeat is readily available. It's not super-widely eaten but it is popular.

You could have it along with some whale, puffin, reindeer, rotted shark, and rotted skate if you wanted ;)

What is the horsemeat objection? I mean... what's the logic in eating animals like pigs and cows but not horses? Because horses are cuter?

This pig is cute. An Aussie also. hehe
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Jes jokin', AussieStorm. Found it funny that Dr.Masters did post on Tuesday WUtime, ie GMT
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Quoting barbamz:
Good morning! Something a bit off topic, but somehow nevertheless related to the climate subject, because f.e. too much meat consumption is part of the problem. But first finish your breakfast before reading ;-) Have a nice day everyone.

The Source of Horse: A Shadowy Market Ripe for Exploitation

By Susanna Forrest, February 18, 2013 %u2013 06:06 PM

Europe's horsemeat scandal is the product of our quest to source cheap red meat for the working man. It casts light on the often shadowy equine trade across Europe and how horses have become victims of changing times and the economic crisis.

Read the whole article on Spiegel English edition.


The controversy seems kind of odd here, where horsemeat is readily available. It's not super-widely eaten but it is popular.

You could have it along with some whale, puffin, reindeer, rotted shark, and rotted skate if you wanted ;)

What is the horsemeat objection? I mean... what's the logic in eating animals like pigs and cows but not horses? Because horses are cuter?
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Quoting aspectre:
80 AussieStorm: As Dr Masters said, He is travelling so he posted early.

Posted early??? It's now less than 15minutes to Wednesday in Sydney.

This is what was said.

Quoting JeffMasters:


I'm traveling, and won't have time in the morning to post. You can tell when my posting schedule gets strange that I'm traveling...

Jeff Masters
Quoting Tazmanian:
I'll have a new post on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters



ooops


Quoting AussieStorm:

And your problem with this is what?? As Dr Masters said, He is travelling so he posted early.
Take it easy Taz and chillax mate!



Does Dr Masters need to justify why he posted a blog early or late. I'm just glad this blog is here and the amount of time in energy and research Dr Masters puts in with the help of Angela Fritz. I think we are all truly thankful.
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Quoting KarenRei:


I would bet Martin Luther King would. He took a lot of flack for insisting on branching out from the Civil Rights issue into other progressive causes, most famously the Vietnam War. He also spoke out against materialism. I wouldn't surprised at all if he had taken up this issue as well at some point.

Mahatma Ghandi was an early environmentalist. Hardcore, to the point that he wrote notes and letters on scrap paper and reversed envelopes for reuse. Very, very much against materialism and western industrial culture. He was arguing over a century ago that industrialization and machines were having a negative impact on the planet and peoples' health, even singling out smoke from factories. Of course he had no conception of the issues with CO2 as well, but I have no doubt here that he'd be protesting.


I dont know Karen and I just could be reaching here but with all the genocide in Africa, the "Travion Martins" still existing here in the US, India still one of the worst poverty stricken countries, inequality of social races, all time high of youth/gang violence, mass murder shootings and all the human suffering still plaguing our society, I'm just thinking that both activists would still be better serving their time leading the masses with those issues than with something that still has a skeptism attached to it.



Just my opinion..I will be sure to ask at the next NAACP chapter meeting that I attend this friday if MLK was alive today would he be serving an agenda of climate change?..I will let you know what they say.

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Quoting pottery:
This blog makes for pretty Dismal reading at 5:15 am......

I think I'll go out and plant some trees today.
Unfortunately, they will surely die in a few weeks as it's very dry and windy here these days and my water supply is running low.
But I'm going to keep trying..........

Good Blog, Dr. Masters.

What happened at 5:15am? I can't see anything. Or maybe that's it, lol. Hope your well Pot. Your in your dry season now I guess?
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Quoting spbloom:


ncstorm doesn't strike me as likely to be a fan of either Gandhi or King.


People like ncstorm and other deniers should remember the old proverb:

"What we're saying today is that you're either part of the solution or you're part of the problem."
Eldridge Cleaver

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Huh, and this really is on topic. Very interesting.

Rapid Changes in the Arctic Ecosystem During Ice Minimum in Summer 2012

Feb. 14, 2013 — Huge quantities of algae are growing on the underside of sea ice in the Central Arctic: in 2012 the ice algae Melosira arctica was responsible for almost half the primary production in this area. When the ice melts, as was the case during the ice minimum in 2012, these algae sink rapidly to the bottom of the sea at a depth of several thousands of metres. Deep sea animals such as sea cucumbers and brittle stars feed on the algae, and bacteria metabolise what's left, consuming the oxygen in the sea bed.

This short-term reaction of the deep sea ecosystem to changes in sea ice cover and ocean productivity has now been published in the scientific journal Science by a multidisciplinary team of researchers around Prof. Dr. Antje Boetius from the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI), Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research and from the Max Planck Institute for Marine Microbiology in Bremen.

Scientists and technicians from twelve nations travelled the Central Arctic on the research icebreaker Polarstern in the late summer of 2012. In and under the ice they used a large number of ultra-modern research devices and methods such as camera-guided sampling devices and an under-ice remotely operating vehicle (ROV). Prof. Antje Boetius, who leads the Helmholtz-Max Planck Research Group on Deep-Sea Ecology and Technology has a first answer to the all-important question of how the Arctic is changing due to warming: "Far quicker than has so far been expected! The seabed at a depth of more than 400 metres was littered with clumps of ice algae which had attracted lots of sea cucumbers and brittle stars," explains the microbiologist.

Read the whole article on Science Daily
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80 AussieStorm: As Dr Masters said, He is travelling so he posted early.

Posted early??? It's now less than 15minutes to Wednesday in Sydney.
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Good Morning everyone Have a great Tuesday.
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Good morning! Something a bit off topic, but somehow nevertheless related to the climate subject, because f.e. too much meat consumption is part of the problem. But first finish your breakfast before reading ;-) Have a nice day everyone.

The Source of Horse: A Shadowy Market Ripe for Exploitation

By Susanna Forrest, February 18, 2013 %u2013 06:06 PM

Europe's horsemeat scandal is the product of our quest to source cheap red meat for the working man. It casts light on the often shadowy equine trade across Europe and how horses have become victims of changing times and the economic crisis.

Read the whole article on Spiegel English edition.

Edit much later: ROFL, the answer of the horse on youtube.
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Quoting ncstorm:


Sorry Tribucanes..I seriously doubt that if Martin Luther King or Ghandi was alive today that they would be leading the masses to find a solution to climate change..in fact, I'm pretty sure Dr. King and Ghandi would still be fighting for the end of human suffering and equality for all..I cant imagine that the "I have a dream" speech will consist of "Global Warming At Last..Global Warming At Last"

this blog be really reaching..

Good night..dream of clean air..


I would bet Martin Luther King would. He took a lot of flack for insisting on branching out from the Civil Rights issue into other progressive causes, most famously the Vietnam War. He also spoke out against materialism. I wouldn't surprised at all if he had taken up this issue as well at some point.

Mahatma Ghandi was an early environmentalist. Hardcore, to the point that he wrote notes and letters on scrap paper and reversed envelopes for reuse. Very, very much against materialism and western industrial culture. He was arguing over a century ago that industrialization and machines were having a negative impact on the planet and peoples' health, even singling out smoke from factories. Of course he had no conception of the issues with CO2 as well, but I have no doubt here that he'd be protesting.
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Everyone have a great Tuesday. Aussie, have a great Wednesday!
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3112
Quoting spbloom:


ncstorm doesn't strike me as likely to be a fan of either Gandhi or King.


No, I don't see that either :) But I am a humanist and love the philosophy of Gandhi, so I couldn't resist.
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Quoting spbloom:


ncstorm doesn't strike me as likely to be a fan of either Gandhi or King.


I guess me being biracial would prove your statement right..

I got to get ready for work..you guys have a great day..will check in later..

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Quoting goosegirl1:


What happened to "You must be the change you wish to see in the world." Or maybe "An error does not become truth by reason of multiplied propagation, not does truth become error because nobody sees it."

It won't go away because you wish for it.


ncstorm doesn't strike me as likely to be a fan of either Gandhi or King.
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Could be looking at some serious flooding in the upcoming days

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Quoting ncstorm:


Sorry Tribucanes..I seriously doubt that if Martin Luther King or Ghandi was alive today that they would be leading the masses to find a solution to climate change..in fact, I'm pretty sure Dr. King and Ghandi would still be fighting for the end of human suffering and equality for all..I cant imagine that the "I have a dream" speech will consist of "Global Warming At Last..Global Warming At Last"

this blog be really reaching..

Good night..dream of clean air..


What happened to "You must be the change you wish to see in the world." Or maybe "An error does not become truth by reason of multiplied propagation, not does truth become error because nobody sees it."

It won't go away because you wish for it.
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Did you see the 6Z GFS snow in S FL lol and big rain!!


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Interesting info on the possible budget cut to weather forecasting on TWC.
Member Since: August 22, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3112
16S is a rather interesting looking cyclone:



Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 7295
Good morning. Here's the SPC's current outlook for Thursday:



There's a lot of uncertainty regarding severe potential on this day, the SPC pointed out several possible uncertainties/concerns in the discussion, which you can read here.

They also acknowledged that it is becoming more likely that the predominant storm mode could be discrete supercells, with tornadoes being the biggest threat and a strong tornado or two possible.

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 79 Comments: 7295
alot of moisture around today...............
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33362
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33362
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Good morning, all. Evening, Aussie. The rain has passed now; had some small thunderstorms yesterday and last night. More rain starting tomorrow. No where to put it.

Fresh fruit and warm muffins on the sideboard next to Largo's coffee. Enjoy!
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Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33362
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Good Morning Folks!..the Blogs coffee is perked for when you get here!..have a wonderful day everyone
Member Since: August 6, 2011 Posts: 4 Comments: 33362
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102. MahFL
Quoting wxmod:


As I watch the jets fly to and fro overhead
their owners blissfully unaware of their impact on the planet
the advertisment of the freedom of travel comes at a high price
not to be taken lightly.


Here in NE FL the number of contrails some days is close to 20 you can count at any one time, I am pretty sure it keeps out nights warmer sometimes.....
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Good morning. Not much change from the mainly dry conditions is expected in the NE Caribbean islands.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
519 AM AST TUE FEB 19 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...WEST NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE CARIBBEAN. A WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE CARIBBEAN
AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXTREMELY DRY EXCEPT ON SUNDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE REST OF THIS WEEK. A SHEAR LINE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH LIMITED MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED
BY DRIER AIR. HOWEVER...THIS DISSIPATING BOUNDARY MAY LINGER
NEARBY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS MOVED THROUGH BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE IN
PUERTO RICO IN EAST NORTHEAST FLOW. AMOUNTS WERE VERY LIGHT. THE
GFS SHOWS PATCHY MOISTURE MOVING IN INCREASING TRADE WIND FLOW
TODAY. THIS FLOW WILL TAPER OFF ON THURSDAY. THE CURRENT SOLUTION
SHOWS EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH A SHEAR LINE PASSAGE
ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SHEARLINE IS BOTH PRECEDED AND FOLLOWED BY
DRIER AIR AND HENCE THE RELATIVELY DRIER FORECAST SATURDAY...
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT.
INTERESTINGLY...THE ONLY TIME MOISTURE INTRUDES INTO THE MID
LAYERS IS DURING THE SHEAR LINE PASSAGE...OTHERWISE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY LEVELS AT 600 MB ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 10 PERCENT
BEFORE SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTER MONDAY EVENING AND ABOVE 20
PERCENT ONLY 24 DURING THE HOURS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL KEEP SHOWER AMOUNTS LIMITED. AFTER MONDAY THE BOUNDARY IS
BROUGHT BACK IN A WEAKER CONDITION AND WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT SHRA POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE BVI/USVI
AND TJSJ. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WHICH WILL CAUSE MAINLY EAST WINDS AT
AROUND 15G25KT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ONCE AGAIN AFTER
19/00Z TO AROUND 10KT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS AT BUOY 41047 PEAKED AT 16 FEET AND HAVE TOUCHED
11.5 FEET TWICE AT BUOY 41043. SEAS REACHED 6.6 FEET AT BUOY 41043
NEAR SAN JUAN AND REACHED ALMOST 8 FEET AT RINCON. PERIODS HAVE RANGED
BETWEEN 12 AND 14 SECONDS. EXPECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEAS LATER THIS
MORNING. FORTUNATELY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE WILL BE MORE THAN ONE
FOOT LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS OR SUBSEQUENT MORNING HIGH TIDES.
WITH INCREASING WIND WAVES FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AND NORTH
NORTHWEST SWELL...SEAS WILL BE CONFUSED AND HAZARDOUS TO
NAVIGATION. ALSO RIP CURRENTS WILL BE PARTICULARLY STRONG LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MUCH OF NORTHEAST AND SOME OF SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO RECEIVED RAIN YESTERDAY AND A FEW SHOWERS
WERE RECEIVED OVERNIGHT. MANY AREAS STILL HAVE VERY DRY FUELS AND
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY. THEREFORE FIRES THAT START TODAY WILL
BE DIFFICULT AND HAZARDOUS TO CONTROL. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS
MAY BRIEFLY FALL BELOW 45 PERCENT IN INTERIOR AREAS OF PUERTO RICO.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 84 73 / 30 50 50 30
STT 84 74 84 75 / 30 30 30 20
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Since about a week ago. So glad administration is in real time now. Really weeds out the trolls.

That's great news. I had really cut down on my visits here because of the troll problem.

Given the timing, was this new research paper --

"Trolls Win: Rude Blog Comments Dim Allure of Science Online, Experts Say"

-- any part of the motivation?
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This is, admittedly, from a VERY left friend. Though a bit of lefty sensationalism, I don't doubt the basic facts of this. Probably some of the same people funding anti-climate change lobby, are also knee deep in preparing for profitting off of likely results of it. Knowing everyone will be too busy bickering about to notice they have control and will charge extortionist rates...or many will be too busy worrying about what poor people on welfare get, than care that they have another global noose on what we get and what we pay for it so they can make massive profits, while we all toil away even more to get the basic necessities while they buy their next holiday home. Figuring out how to screw people over, is not working hard, like many like to say about a number of the wealthy.
Link

I know a lot of you won't like this...but this isn't really posted for those sworn to protect the status quo and protect the anti-everyone but the rich and anti-climate change backers. This is for those who care about it all, but may have not seen it yet. Has a lot of info about who's buying it all up.
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Good point !

Have a Great Day Kori.
I'm off to the airport to meet some people. It's still dark outside. Drat to these "economy flights" that land at Dread Hours.
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Quoting pottery:
This blog makes for pretty Dismal reading at 5:15 am......

That's not the overall demeanor? ;)
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.