Arctic sea ice volume now one-fifth its 1979 level

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:52 AM GMT on February 19, 2013

Share this Blog
59
+

The stunning loss of Arctic sea ice extent in recent years is undeniable--satellite measurements have conclusively shown that half of the Arctic sea ice went missing in September 2012, compared to the average September during 1979 - 2000. But the extent of ice cover is not the best measure of how the fire raging in Earth's attic is affecting sea ice--the total volume of the ice is more important. But up until 2010, we didn't have the measurements needed to say how the total volume of ice in the Arctic might be changing. Scientists relied on the University of Washington PIOMAS model, which suggested that the loss of Arctic sea ice volume during September might be approaching 75% - 80%. The model results were widely criticized by climate change skeptics as being unrealistic. However, in April 2010, a new satellite called Cryostat-2 was launched, which can measure ice volume by beaming pulses of microwave energy off of the ice. With two years of data to Cryosat-2 data to analyze, the results of the PIOMAS model have now been confirmed by a study published on-line in February 2013 in Geophysical Research Letters. In a University of Washington news release, co-author Axel Schweiger said, "people had argued that 75 to 80 percent ice volume loss was too aggressive. What this new paper shows is that our ice loss estimates may have been too conservative, and that the recent decline is possibly more rapid." The U.K.'s Natural Environmental Research Council reported that the team of scientists found that from 2003 to 2012, the volume of Arctic sea ice declined 36% in the autumn and 9% in the winter. The measure of sea ice volume is a good indicator of how the Arctic's most stable, "multi-year" ice is fairing. As the multi-year ice declines, sea ice extent, the total area covered by sea ice, in an "Arctic death spiral". The new study shows that thick, multi-year ice has disappeared in areas north of Greenland, around the Canadian Archipelago, and to the northeast of Svalbard, Norway.


Figure 1. Arctic sea ice volume in thousands of cubic kilometers during the September minimum in 1979 compared to 2012, as estimated by the University of Washington PIOMAS model. Arctic seas ice volume has declined by more than a factor of five. Image credit; Andy Lee Robinson.


Figure 2. The Polar-5 aircraft, carrying the EM instrument that was used to validate Cryosat-2 sea ice thickness measurements, flying over the validation site. Image credit: R. Willatt.

Why care about Arctic sea ice loss?
If you remove an area of sea ice 43% the size of the contiguous U.S. from the ocean, like occurred in September 2012, it is guaranteed to have a significant impact on weather and climate. The extra heat and moisture added to the atmosphere as a result of all that open water over the pole may already be altering jet stream patterns in fall and winter, bringing an increase in extreme weather events. The record sea ice loss in 2012 also contributed to an unprecedented melting event in Greenland. Continued sea ice loss will further increase melting from Greenland, contributing to sea level rise and storm surge damages. Sea ice loss will also continue to crank up the thermostat over Arctic permafrost regions. This will potentially release a significant fraction of the vast amounts of carbon currently locked in the permafrost, further accelerating global warming.

Related Posts
Earth's attic is on fire: Arctic sea ice bottoms out at a new record low (September 2012)
Half of the polar ice cap is missing: Arctic sea ice hits a new record low. September 6, 2012 blog post
Wunderground's Sea Ice page
Arctic Death Spiral Bombshell: CryoSat-2 Confirms Sea Ice Volume Has Collapsed by Joe Romm at climateprogress.org.

Jeff Masters and Angela Fritz

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 747 - 697

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25Blog Index

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. Quiet weather up here today, major storm possible this weekend, question is rain or snow?

Cyclone Haruna looks pretty good:


TC Haruna finally got her core sorted.





Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
I'm curious to see how today and tonight pan out weather wise here in Norman, Oklahoma.

At midnight it was 44 with rain, now it is 34 with rain, snow just to the north.

Doesn't look like we'll warm much if any today, with the NAM, GFS, and HRRR all showing snow accumulations here. Will be the third time in a week it's snowed here in Oklahoma.

NAM



GFS



HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh)

Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Every single county in the state of Kansas is currently under a Winter Storm Warning.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Xulonn:
Aw, c'mon Aussie, that was really lame. Neapolitan is a software guy somewhere in the U.S. I am a retired expat living in the in mountains of Western Panama. And our writing styles are quite different.

I do enjoy your posts, and your presence here reminds me of some reading I had to do at U.C. Berkeley in 1975 for a course entitled "Sociology of Natural Resources" on "Bush Fires in Australia" - probably before Nea was born! It was about the issues of people being unable to recognize that bush fires were recurring events and not unique events. Guess that's even more true now - the recurring part.

Yeah your right, Nea thinks he knows everything about everything. Your right about bushfires being recurring events, yet stupidly people still build in those areas even after they have lost everything knowing full well some day years away they'll probably lose everything once again.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
Time to head out the door. Have a great Wednesday everyone, Aussie, have a great Thursday. Afternoon, Barbamz! You have a great day as well!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Puh, a lot of interesting discussion was going on last night when I was sleeping. --- Short hello from Germany without severe winter weather. Have a nice day, Barb.

'Uuneven' Global Sea-Level Rise Predicted

Feb. 18, 2013 — Sophisticated computer modelling has shown how sea-level rise over the coming century could affect some regions far more than others. The model shows that parts of the Pacific will see the highest rates of rise while some polar regions will actually experience falls in relative sea levels due to the ways sea, land and ice interact globally.

Source and whole article on Science Daily
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning. Quiet weather up here today, major storm possible this weekend, question is rain or snow?

Cyclone Haruna looks pretty good:

Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 84 Comments: 7948
Good morning to all. Still mainly dry in Puerto Rico and no change is in sight.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
512 AM AST WED FEB 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION DURING THE
ENTIRE 10 DAYS IS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW OF LESS THAN 30 KNOTS.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
THROUGH SUNDAY AND OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. MID LEVELS WILL BE GENERALLY DRY DURING THE ENTIRE 10
DAY PERIOD.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH IS AFFECTED BY
MIGRATING MID LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...BUT MODERATE TRADE
WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. A SHEARLINE IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND WEAKLY RETURN
DURING THE FOLLOWING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS MOVED ONSHORE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT BUT WINDS WERE SOMEWHAT STRONGER AND
SHOWERS WERE NOT AS STRONG SO OVERALL THERE WAS LESS RAINFALL
COVERAGE AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS THAN MONDAY NIGHT. RANDOM PATCHES OF
MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN EAST
NORTHEAST FLOW BRINGING A CONTINUATION OF THE LIGHT SHOWERS THAT
HAVE DAMPENED STREETS IN NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO AND BROUGHT MINOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. SOME SHOWERS IN SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO WILL ALSO
FORM DURING THE AFTERNOONS NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT AGAIN WILL NOT
YIELD MUCH. DRYING BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND A SHEAR LINE WILL OCCUR
WITH ITS PASSAGE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND CURRENT MODELS ARE TENDING
TO FAVOR RAIN A LITTLE LESS THAN IN THE PREVIOUS 24 HOUR`S RUN. AS
THE BOUNDARY RETURNS ON TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK THE CONTINUATION OF
THIS WEEKS PATTERN WILL COMMENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND PASSING SHRA WILL AFFECT THE USVI/BVI AS WELL AS
NORTHERN PR UNTIL 20/16Z. THEREAFTER...ISOLD-SCT SHRA ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS TJBQ/TJMZ UNTIL 20/23Z. AS A RESULT...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SHRA. LLVL
EAST WINDS WILL RANGE BTWN 10-20 KTS WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY SIMILAR DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS AND ONLY A GRADUAL DECREASE IS EXPECTED TODAY FROM LEVELS OF
11 TO 12 FEET SWELL WITH PERIODS OF 13 TO 14 SECONDS. THE EXPIRATION OF
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE RE-EXAMINED THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY
HAVE TO BE EXTENDED OVERNIGHT DEPENDING ON LOCAL CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED TO COME DOWN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE PARADE OF MIGRATING LOWS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WILL BRING A RETURN OF 7 FOOT SEAS TO THE AREA BEFORE THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LIGHT SHOWERS ARE KEEPING EASTERN PUERTO RICO DAMP
AND A FEW SHOWERS WERE ALSO NOTED OVER THE SOUTHWEST...HOWEVER
OVERALL CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL LIKELY
DROP BELOW 40 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON IN INTERIOR
AND SOUTH COASTAL PUERTO RICO. WINDS WILL REACH 20 MPH SUSTAINED
AND GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 MPH TODAY AS OCCURRED YESTERDAY IN AREAS OF
SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO AND SOME EXPOSED PASSES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 73 84 74 / 10 30 30 30
STT 84 74 84 74 / 20 20 20 30
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. A chillier 43 degrees here this morning with a 'slight' chance of rain. Well, radar shows the rain will be here soon. And then possible severe tomorrow. And more rain after that for a couple of days. I may need to go see if I can dig the paddle out of the shed...

Eggs, bacon, sausage and biscuits with gravy on the sideboard. Enjoy.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Mornin' gang!

Evening Aussie!
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2587
737. MahFL
Good morning all, took the day off from work with stomach problems. Hardly got any rain from the last front, 0.03 inch.
Orange Park, FL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
G'mornin gang. G'eve Aussie. 39.2F here o the west side. Gotta get ready for work. It's been a slice.
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 591
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


That is just it, Levi. Science is true for the simple reason that further knowledge is allowed to be introduced into the science. What Science is not is absolute. What Science is not is static and it never will be. Once we have discovered all that can be discovered, then Science ceases to exist as a field of study.

The only reason that the AGWT exists as the predominate theory to explain the current warming is because there is no other theory that better explains the observations. Should a better theory come along to explain the observations then it will either be incorporated into the AGWT or replace it as the predominant theory.

Certainly Einstein showed the flaws in Newton's theory of gravity, but Einstein's contributions were only incorporated into Newton's theory to better explain gravity. The main context of Newton's theory are still used today. Einstein's theory only modified it and did not replace it. Even with this, Einstein's contributions to the theory of gravity still does not hold up when tested on the extremely small objects. We still do not have the unified theory that will explain everything at both the very large scale and the very small scale. Currently, we only understand gravity at the very large scale.


Well, science is definitely always moving, as it should, which I why I don't like when things are stated as total fact, as something new can be found discovered.
But, I think that's why there are a number of non-pro gas/oil people who doubt GW is a human made problem, because there are natural reasons why the earth can warm or cool and has done it before on it's own. But, I still don't think whether there is any doubt about it by anyone, we should still be polluting the planet all we want and should be using more renewables and such. I mean, China 'could' have taken that path. They were/have been growing at a time when they had the resources and money to go that route. But they went the easy, full-on polluting path. Probably at the behest of those who'd be making the most money on it and wanting that few extra hundred thousands in their pocket quicker. Backhanders to politicians I'm sure too.
So regardless of 'why' we have GW, we really should do what we can not to poison everything else. I so wish I could afford a wind generator and solar panels and anything else to help make my own electric. But I also hate the extotionist rates of the power companies just so they can line some execs and shareholders pockets. Being clean energy would be a bonus out of it for me, as I've said before,I've wanted to be off the grid since before all the climate arguements ever surfaced.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

...PATCHY DENSE FOG AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS
MORNING...

PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF DESOTO...HARDEE...
HIGHLANDS...MANATEE...SARASOTA...CHARLOTTE...AND LEE COUNTIES
THROUGH 600 AM EST.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 75 BETWEEN EXITS 123 AND 229.

THE FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO IN SOME AREAS. MOTORISTS
SHOULD SLOW DOWN...USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS...OR FIND AN ALTERNATIVE
ROUTE. IN ADDITION...MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING VISIBILITY WITHIN THE FOG BANK.

$$
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Morning Folks!..the Blogs Coffee is perked for when You get here..have a great day everyone!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
730. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02
15:00 PM JST February 20 2013
======================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sulu Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 7.3N 120.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 7.3N 118.7E - 35 knots (CAT1/Tropical Storm) Sulu Sea
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
729. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE HARUNA (09-20122013)
10:00 AM RET February 20 2013
=======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Haruna (976 hPa) located at 21.7S 41.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 3 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 50 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
===================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the southeastern quadrant, and up to 120 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
120 NM radius from the center, extending up to 180 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 22.5S 41.2E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
24 HRS: 22.8S 41.8E - 80 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
48 HRS: 23.4S 43.6E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
72 HRS: 25.8S 45.8E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)

Additional Information
========================
First satellite visible pictures show a curved band wrapping on >1.0 wrap. Last night fix have been relocated thanks to 0023z and 0224z microwave pictures that show a quasi stationary movement. On latest classical satellite pictures, it seems that system has take again a slow southward track.

Within the next 12 hours, system is expected to keep on drifting slowly southward. Beyond, available numerical weather prediction models are in agreement for a generally eastward to east southeastward track under the steering influence of a broad mid level trough transiting south of 30.0S and a strengthening ridge in the northeast.

Significant differences remain in chronology and cap variations. RSMC official forecast track is based on ten best runs ECMWF ensemble of yesterday 1200z and 0000z deterministic run.

Over high energetic potential seas (29-30C) and under the upper level ridge, system is expected to strengthen within the next 48 hours before landfall that is expected Friday.

Haruna presents an important threat for the southwestern coasts of Madagascar that should be to impinge within the next 72 hours. Currently, coastal areas between Morombe and cape Sainte-Marie is the potential landfall area. Inhabitants of this area should monitor the evolution of this system and stay tuned with information provided by their national weather services.

System is expected to return oversea Saturday and to keep a east southeastward track without notable re-intensification due to environmental conditions becoming unfavorable (strong northwesterly wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Per SPC

"THE ENVIRONMENT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE CONDUCIVE TO AT
LEAST SCATTERED DISCRETE STORM FORMATION. WIND PROFILES
CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.
TORNADIC POTENTIAL MAY BE ENHANCED AS STORMS TEND TO MOVE ACROSS OR
ALONG A ROUGHLY NORTHWEST/SOUTHEAST SURFACE WARM FRONTAL
ZONE..."
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting lickitysplit:
Algae is growing on the underside of ice in the Arctic.

http://phys.org/news/2013-02-rapid-arctic-ecosyst em.html


Here is your link - Rapid changes in the Arctic ecosystem
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here is the new SPC out look for Thursday





And here is the graphic I posted about an hour ago guessing what SPC would go with.



(Yellow = slight, red enhanced slight)
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Algae is growing on the underside of ice in the Arctic.

http://phys.org/news/2013-02-rapid-arctic-ecosyst em.html
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
WINTER STORM Q

Notice that the pinkish color calls for 14-19"... some NWS forecasts top at 18"
Also rain to the south with ice-rain/snow mix. Some thunderstorms possible within the rain for the Lower Mississippi Valley .


Max? If you are still up, join chat for a sec.

Nice graphic by the way, I wish that storm would go more of a Southerly direction. But one can only wish.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Here is some really good reading from Dr. Doswell, Roger Edwards (SPC forecaster), Rich Thompson (SPC forecaster) and a couple of others regarding what defines a severe weather and tornado outbreak


http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/WAF9 59.1
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting AussieStorm:

Hey Neapolitan. Why don't you stick to your original name?
Aw, c'mon Aussie, that was really lame. Neapolitan is a software guy somewhere in the U.S. I am a retired expat living in the in mountains of Western Panama. And our writing styles are quite different.

I do enjoy your posts, and your presence here reminds me of some reading I had to do at U.C. Berkeley in 1975 for a course entitled "Sociology of Natural Resources" on "Bush Fires in Australia" - probably before Nea was born! It was about the issues of people being unable to recognize that bush fires were recurring events and not unique events. Guess that's even more true now - the recurring part.
Member Since: June 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1496
Quoting Chicklit:


got it. thanks, Dude!


You're welcome, Chick.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting tornadodude:


It's not an outbreak unless it is large scale and of greater severity than most systems.


got it. thanks, Dude!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:
Okay, so Thursday's predicted severe weather event is not an outbreak until Thursday. It's just a predicted severe weather event.


It's not an outbreak unless it is large scale and of greater severity than most systems.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
WINTER STORM Q

Notice that the pinkish color calls for 14-19"... some NWS forecasts top at 18"
Also rain to the south with ice-rain/snow mix. Some thunderstorms possible within the rain for the Lower Mississippi Valley .





click for larger picture...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Okay, so Thursday's predicted severe weather event is not an outbreak until Thursday.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Xulonn:
To the WU weather wizards:

I read your posts here with great interest and amazement at the high level of your many and varied skills in meteorology. This place is quite an informative zoo when hurricanes or other severe weather is forecast or happening. You are really quite a collection of characters - and I love people with character!

Dr. Masters has gone well past the technology of meteorology and into heavy duty science, and is fully on board with - and part of - the overwhelming consensus supporting the reality of AGW/CC, as are Angela Fritz and Dr. Rood. I'm aware that many of you still doubt the reality of AGW/CC, and the implications are serious enough to make anyone wish that it wasn't true. This alone can cause resistance to studying, or even simply reading carefully, about the science of AGW/CC RIGHT HERE AT THE WU CLIMATE SCIENCE PAGES!

I have noticed a few people coming on board with the science of AGW/CC, and know that I will see more and more of you recognizing the truth. And then I expect you, especially the younger members, become leaders in the battle to deal with the issues we face.

Although I am old - within a few millennia of Grothar - I expect to see more serious symptoms of AGW/CC before I kick the bucket.

There may be a new post from Dr, Masters soon - probably on severe weather - which will make many of you very happy. So I will back out for now, and return on Thursday to Dr. Rood's blog to continue my effort to enlighten folks about AGW/CC, respond to skeptical inquiries, and do battle with denialists. I will reformulate my approach to this blog, and return to post here, hopefully in a more productive style after the next Dr. Masters AGW/CC related blog entry.

See y'all later!

David van Harn, a.k.a. Xulonn
Retired American Expat
Boquete, Chiriqui, Panama
(Where, at 4,500' elevation it's never gone over 82° or under 58°F in the year I've been here.)



Thank you for your civility. Have a good one!

Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
715. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
1:23 PM WST February 20 2013
===========================================

A weak low is located in the monsoon trough near 14.0S 106.0E, about 400 km south of Christmas Island. The low is moving slowly westwards and may develop into a tropical cyclone on Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=====================================
Thursday: Low
Friday: Low
Saturday: Moderate

system #2
---------

The monsoon trough lies north of the Kimberley near 13.0S. A low that is currently east of the Western Region is expected to move into the region during Friday. This low may develop into a tropical cyclone late on Saturday or on Sunday. Next week it is likely that this system will become a severe tropical cyclone and impact the Pilbara.

People in the Pilbara and Kimberley are advised to stay up to date with weather forecasts and warnings. There are no other significant lows and none are expected to develop over the next three days.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=====================================
Thursday: Very Low
Friday: Low
Saturday: Moderate
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
To the WU weather wizards:

I read your posts here with great interest and amazement at the high level of your many and varied skills in meteorology. This place is quite an informative zoo when hurricanes or other severe weather is forecast or happening. You are really quite a collection of characters - and I love people with character!

Dr. Masters has gone well past the technology of meteorology and into heavy duty science, and is fully on board with - and part of - the overwhelming consensus supporting the reality of AGW/CC, as are Angela Fritz and Dr. Rood. I'm aware that many of you still doubt the reality of AGW/CC, and the implications are serious enough to make anyone wish that it wasn't true. This alone can cause resistance to studying, or even simply reading carefully, about the science of AGW/CC RIGHT HERE AT THE WU CLIMATE SCIENCE PAGES!

I have noticed a few people coming on board with the science of AGW/CC, and know that I will see more and more of you recognizing the truth. And then I expect you, especially the younger members, become leaders in the battle to deal with the issues we face.

Although I am old - within a few millennia of Grothar - I expect to see more serious symptoms of AGW/CC before I kick the bucket.

There may be a new post from Dr, Masters soon - probably on severe weather - which will make many of you very happy. So I will back out for now, and return on Thursday to Dr. Rood's blog to continue my effort to enlighten folks about AGW/CC, respond to skeptical inquiries, and do battle with denialists. I will reformulate my approach to this blog, and return to post here, hopefully in a more productive style after the next Dr. Masters AGW/CC related blog entry.

See y'all later!

David van Harn, a.k.a. Xulonn
Retired American Expat
Boquete, Chiriqui, Panama
(Where, at 4,500' elevation it's never gone over 82° or under 58°F in the year I've been here.)

Member Since: June 11, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 1496
Quoting Chicklit:

Call it an outbreak, call it severe weather.
Yes, I'm making a point.
And you asked.
p.s. SPC stands for Storm Prediction Center
And typically they predict storm outbreaks.
That's their job.
And they deal with opinons and facts.
Based upon science.


They don't always predict outbreaks, they predict isolated severe weather as well, outbreaks are less frequent.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting Levi32:


No, science is our current best possible understanding of how the universe works. That understanding may be the truth, or it may be a slightly misguided view to be refined later by additional discoveries, or it may be entirely false.

Based on empirical evidence, the geocentric model of the universe was accepted until Copernicus postulated the heliocentric theory. Light was believed to behave only as a wave until the experiments and theories of Planck and Compton. Time was believed to flow at a constant rate relative to any object until Einstein's theory of relativity. Classical physics taught that the laws of Newton held universally for matter and energy until quantum effects were discovered.

Clearly, major theories of science have been fully or partially untrue for the majority of its history, and our current understanding of the universe may get turned on its head many more times before we finally discover the whole "truth."

To go around saying science is true always is to define truth as relative to current knowledge, which is B.S.



That is just it, Levi. Science is true for the simple reason that further knowledge is allowed to be introduced into the science. What Science is not is absolute. What Science is not is static and it never will be. Once we have discovered all that can be discovered, then Science ceases to exist as a field of study.

The only reason that the AGWT exists as the predominate theory to explain the current warming is because there is no other theory that better explains the observations. Should a better theory come along to explain the observations then it will either be incorporated into the AGWT or replace it as the predominant theory.

Certainly Einstein showed the flaws in Newton's theory of gravity, but Einstein's contributions were only incorporated into Newton's theory to better explain gravity. The main context of Newton's theory are still used today. Einstein's theory only modified it and did not replace it. Even with this, Einstein's contributions to the theory of gravity still does not hold up when tested on the extremely small objects. We still do not have the unified theory that will explain everything at both the very large scale and the very small scale. Currently, we only understand gravity at the very large scale.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:

Call it an outbreak, call it severe weather.
Yes, I'm making a point.
And you asked.
p.s. SPC stands for Storm Prediction Center


I live 2 blocks from the SPC, pretty sure I know what it stands for haha

Also, you don't make much sense when you say "Call it an outbreak, call it severe weather."

That doesn't make sense. You can have all sorts of outbreaks, like illnesses, etc, including severe weather outbreaks. However, no one is referring to Thursday's severe weather event as an outbreak.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting tornadodude:


well, first off, no one is predicting an outbreak.

And of course they would use observed conditions and climatology, that's crucial to forecasting. I know you're trying to draw a connection to climate change here, but I'm not interested.

Anyway, I am curious to see the SPC thoughts on Thursday.

Call it an outbreak, call it severe weather.
Yes, I'm making a point.
And you asked.
p.s. SPC stands for Storm Prediction Center
And typically they predict storm outbreaks.
That's their job.
And they deal with opinons and facts.
Based upon science.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:

Somebody is minding the store.
Using instruments and scientific methods, you know...
The forecasters are predicting an outbreak based upon observed conditions and climatology.



well, first off, no one is predicting an outbreak.

And of course they would use observed conditions and climatology, that's crucial to forecasting. I know you're trying to draw a connection to climate change here, but I'm not interested.

Anyway, I am curious to see the SPC thoughts on Thursday.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting tornadodude:


What's reassuring?

Somebody is minding the store.
Using instruments and scientific methods, you know...
The forecasters are predicting an outbreak based upon observed conditions and climatology.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:

Hey Neapolitan. Why don't you stick to your original name?

well, ya know how they are
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:

Hey Neapolitan. Why don't you stick to your original name?


Hmmm.

Also I seem to have walked into a plethora of "Greek" or otherwise philosophers. Interesting. - I'll slip on out. - take care all
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RTLSNK:
Might be time for everyone to take a short break from
their keyboards, take some deep breaths, and talk
about the weather.


I concur, Snake... Let's see, a too-familiar forecast calling for more unneeded rainfall across the immediate N Gulf region, falling on fully saturated soils that haven't been dry since December... threat severe wx, stuck for days under a relentlessly active subtropical jet featuring multiple disturbances...
Why yes, I'd say my weather outlook flat out sucks...
;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:


That's reassuring.


What's reassuring?
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting RTLSNK:
Now might be a good time to remember what Rule Number
One is on Dr. Master's Rules of the Road for this blog.

1.Keep it civil. Personal attacks, bickering, flaming, and general trollish behavior will not be tolerated. Disagreements are fine, but keep them civil and short.

Might be time for everyone to take a short break from
their keyboards, take some deep breaths, and talk
about the weather.

Yeah, I stepped away for a few hours and I came back to screaming and yelling. Some keyboard warriors need to back off and cool down.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
Major winter storm evolving... to map my map soon...

Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting Astrometeor:


If CAPE pulls through again, we may see several significant tornadoes out ahead of a main mostly rain line with a few embedded storms.

But I am not an expert of deciphering these things, like our colleague above said, the SPC will issue an update in about an hour.


That's reassuring.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Birthmark:

Hey, if you (or anyone else for that matter) run across any of the latter drop me a WUmail. :)
Quoting Birthmark:

Hey, if you (or anyone else for that matter) run across any of the latter drop me a WUmail. :)


There are no square circles.

There are no circular squares.

It's quite a puzzle, isn't it? If you say "there are no absolute truths", oops! You just declared one!

This is too heavy for this time of night, and I am but an egg when it comes to philosophy :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SteveDa1:


Dr. Ricky Rood's blog
Thank You
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is such a wonderful sight.

Glad to see drought relief.

Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360

Viewing: 747 - 697

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.