Arctic sea ice volume now one-fifth its 1979 level

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:52 AM GMT on February 19, 2013

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The stunning loss of Arctic sea ice extent in recent years is undeniable--satellite measurements have conclusively shown that half of the Arctic sea ice went missing in September 2012, compared to the average September during 1979 - 2000. But the extent of ice cover is not the best measure of how the fire raging in Earth's attic is affecting sea ice--the total volume of the ice is more important. But up until 2010, we didn't have the measurements needed to say how the total volume of ice in the Arctic might be changing. Scientists relied on the University of Washington PIOMAS model, which suggested that the loss of Arctic sea ice volume during September might be approaching 75% - 80%. The model results were widely criticized by climate change skeptics as being unrealistic. However, in April 2010, a new satellite called Cryostat-2 was launched, which can measure ice volume by beaming pulses of microwave energy off of the ice. With two years of data to Cryosat-2 data to analyze, the results of the PIOMAS model have now been confirmed by a study published on-line in February 2013 in Geophysical Research Letters. In a University of Washington news release, co-author Axel Schweiger said, "people had argued that 75 to 80 percent ice volume loss was too aggressive. What this new paper shows is that our ice loss estimates may have been too conservative, and that the recent decline is possibly more rapid." The U.K.'s Natural Environmental Research Council reported that the team of scientists found that from 2003 to 2012, the volume of Arctic sea ice declined 36% in the autumn and 9% in the winter. The measure of sea ice volume is a good indicator of how the Arctic's most stable, "multi-year" ice is fairing. As the multi-year ice declines, sea ice extent, the total area covered by sea ice, in an "Arctic death spiral". The new study shows that thick, multi-year ice has disappeared in areas north of Greenland, around the Canadian Archipelago, and to the northeast of Svalbard, Norway.


Figure 1. Arctic sea ice volume in thousands of cubic kilometers during the September minimum in 1979 compared to 2012, as estimated by the University of Washington PIOMAS model. Arctic seas ice volume has declined by more than a factor of five. Image credit; Andy Lee Robinson.


Figure 2. The Polar-5 aircraft, carrying the EM instrument that was used to validate Cryosat-2 sea ice thickness measurements, flying over the validation site. Image credit: R. Willatt.

Why care about Arctic sea ice loss?
If you remove an area of sea ice 43% the size of the contiguous U.S. from the ocean, like occurred in September 2012, it is guaranteed to have a significant impact on weather and climate. The extra heat and moisture added to the atmosphere as a result of all that open water over the pole may already be altering jet stream patterns in fall and winter, bringing an increase in extreme weather events. The record sea ice loss in 2012 also contributed to an unprecedented melting event in Greenland. Continued sea ice loss will further increase melting from Greenland, contributing to sea level rise and storm surge damages. Sea ice loss will also continue to crank up the thermostat over Arctic permafrost regions. This will potentially release a significant fraction of the vast amounts of carbon currently locked in the permafrost, further accelerating global warming.

Related Posts
Earth's attic is on fire: Arctic sea ice bottoms out at a new record low (September 2012)
Half of the polar ice cap is missing: Arctic sea ice hits a new record low. September 6, 2012 blog post
Wunderground's Sea Ice page
Arctic Death Spiral Bombshell: CryoSat-2 Confirms Sea Ice Volume Has Collapsed by Joe Romm at climateprogress.org.

Jeff Masters and Angela Fritz

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797. VR46L
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Good thing I can swim!:




And even past 7 days it's supposed to keep raining.


It looks like there will be little drought deficit in Georgia ,Come next week .. Got to feel for the folks in the Northern Gulf , They have hardly had a dry day since Isaac.
Member Since: March 1, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 6842
Johnny Kelly @stormchaser4850
Live streaming webcam from the University of Tulsa,OK as snow falls (2-4 inches expected by this afternoon)

Link



I'm going to bed. Goodnight all, stay safe, stay warm.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Quoting Neapolitan:
One of LargoFL's wide text-only posts is the offending one; you can either hide all those, are place him temporarily on ignore until they are scrolled off the page.


Will give it a try..
Thanks..
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Comparison between the new version and the classic version. As you can see the classic version doesn't have a problem, hence why I prefer classic.

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
One of LargoFL's wide text-only posts appears to be the offending one; you can either hide all those, are place him temporarily on ignore until they are scrolled off the page.
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Quoting pcola57:


I'm glad I'm not alone..
Just went back to the last page posted and they are fine..

??

Hmmm, that's strange. I don't know why that is. Hopefully it gets fixed soon.

I have to go to the doctors office for allergy shots, bye everyone.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7928
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



Funny you didnt ask about the " " feature.....

lol


I can still see the plus feature..
Except on my own posts..
Wonder what is up?
Never seen that before..
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Quoting pcola57:
Anyone having issues being able to see the "-" and ignore features on posts?



Funny you didnt ask about the "+" feature.....

lol
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Quoting pcola57:
Anyone having issues being able to see the "-" and ignore features on posts?

I am using the classic version still. I don't have that problem.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Good thing I can swim!:




And even past 7 days it's supposed to keep raining.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Yup, I was just going to ask about that.


I'm glad I'm not alone..
Just went back to the last page posted and they are fine..

??
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0175
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0709 AM CST WED FEB 20 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL OK

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 201309Z - 201715Z

SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES OF ONE INCH PER HOUR LOCALLY WILL AFFECT
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL OK VICINITY THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...DESPITE WET-BULB TEMPERATURES WHICH WERE WELL ABOVE
FREEZING EARLIER THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL OK...MELTING ALOFT OF
PERSISTENTLY FALLING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS AREA HAS COOLED THE
LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN WITH TIME. THIS COOLING HAS NOW REACHED
THE SURFACE...WITH TEMPERATURES PER THE OK MESONET HAVING FALLEN
SEVERAL DEGREES OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS DOWN TO NEAR FREEZING. THIS
MELTING-INDUCED COOLING HAS RESULTED IN A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO
SNOW IN MANY AREAS PER LATEST SURFACE OBS. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION
REMAINS FAIRLY HEAVY/STEADY...PERSISTENT MELTING-INDUCED COOLING
WILL MAINTAIN A THERMAL STRUCTURE SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED SNOWFALL.
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION STILL EVIDENT ON RADAR OVER NWRN
TX/SWRN OK WHICH WILL SHIFT NEWD WITH TIME...EXPECT THIS
MELTING/COOLING PROCESS TO CONTINUE DESPITE BACKGROUND WARM
ADVECTION -- WHICH WILL THUS SUPPORT SNOWFALL FOR AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS. EVENTUALLY...AS PRECIPITATION SLACKENS LATER THIS MORNING
AND THE MELTING-INDUCED COOLING LESSENS...THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WILL
WARM A FEW DEGREES AND SNOWFALL SHOULD REVERT BACK TO RAIN.
MEANWHILE...SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE IN MANY
AREAS -- AT LEAST ON GRASSY SURFACES.

..GOSS.. 02/20/2013
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Quoting pcola57:
Anyone having issues being able to see the "-" and ignore features on posts?

Yup, I was just going to ask about that.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7928
Anyone having issues being able to see the "-" and ignore features on posts?
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Quoting biff4ugo:
Thanks Aussie, Good evening.

I may have missed it, but did anyone else read reports of a Greek Meteor about the same time as the one over Russia? I haven't read or heard anything about that one other than word of mouth through friends.

I ain't heard or read anything. Just did a quick google search and only found Information about the 2013 Quadrantids meteor shower in Greece which was January 3rd 2013
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Next Wednesday.

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Thanks Aussie, Good evening.

I may have missed it, but did anyone else read reports of a Greek Meteor about the same time as the one over Russia? I haven't read or heard anything about that one other than word of mouth through friends.
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SE Queensland East coast low. No Idea why it's an invest.





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Quoting biff4ugo:
Are you purposefully trying to make this a subscription only blog? The commercials have been running a script that I have to shut down and now something (I suspect another type of add on this page) is blocking my ability to scroll.

AARG!

I had that, I got adblock and it got rid of it. I don't mind ads but when they effect the view-ability of a webpage, then I use adblock.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Edit. this post seems to have fixed my issue.
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@Amanda2238 Amanda
Lightning storms and all at City Beach!

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Quoting FunnelVortex:
I guess I was right, HURAUNA did develop an eye within 48 hours of being named.



And you said I was thinking too far ahead!

But the question is. Where is Huruna going to go? Madagascar or Mozambique?
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Modis Image of Haruna..



TC 16 in the Mozambique Channel..

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What are saw yesterday from both sides were unacceptable which is why I didn't even bother to blog most of the time.

For the people that think that people who believe in GW are agressive and alarmist not all of us are like that.Not all of us like to give lables to people who don't believe in the same thing.Or try to insult their intelligence.

I have good examples Kwgirl
Some1has2Btherookie and myself.
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I guess I was right, HURAUNA did develop an eye within 48 hours of being named.



And you said I was thinking too far ahead!
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well the warnings are up folks..prepare if your in a flooding zone...........................................THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERAL AREA RIVERS REMAIN IN MINOR TO MODERATE FLOOD. SEE
APPROPRIATE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY...WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS AND MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA BY SATURDAY MORNING. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI ON THURSDAY. FORECASTERS WILL
MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL EASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK
ON LATER FORECASTS. STAY TUNED FOR FUTURE UPDATES ON THIS SYSTEM.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY EXTEND THE FLOODING
PROBLEMS ON MANY AREA RIVERS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS MAY BE REQUIRED
ON THURSDAY MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

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OMG if they do get that 7 inches of rain.....................................FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
845 PM EST TUE FEB 19 2013

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA...

CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER NEAR BRUCE (SR 20) AFFECTING WALTON COUNTY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ALL PERSONS WITH INTEREST ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS...
AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO
NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. IF YOU SEE FLOOD WATERS...REMEMBER TO TURN
AROUND AND DO NOT DROWN.












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IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 1:23 pm WST on Wednesday 20 February 2013
for the period until midnight WST Saturday 23 February 2013.

Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:

Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

A weak low is located in the monsoon trough near 14S 106E, about 400km
south of Christmas Island. The low is moving slowly westwards and may develop
into a tropical cyclone on Saturday.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Thursday Low
Friday Low
Saturday Moderate


The monsoon trough lies north of the Kimberley near 13S. A low that is
currently east of the Western
Region is expected to move into the region during Friday. This low may develop
into a tropical cyclone late on Saturday or on Sunday. Next week it is likely
that this system will become a severe tropical cyclone and impact the Pilbara.
People in the Pilbara and Kimberley are advised to stay up to date with weather
forecasts and warnings. There are no other significant lows and none are
expected to develop over the next three days.

Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Thursday Very Low
Friday Low
Saturday Moderate

................................................. .............................................

Weekly Tropical Climate Note
Issued on Tuesday 19 February 2013

North Australian Monsoon returns, Top End may miss out.

With the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) now in Australian longitudes, this week should provide relief to parts of northern Australia that are experiencing one of their driest wet seasons on record.
Every monsoon develops a little differently, and there is a great deal of model uncertainty in the way this developing monsoon may affect northern Australia. This next burst in monsoonal activity across the Top End may be short-lived. A low pressure system over the Timor Sea is expected to develop as it moves to the southwest and could bring heavy rainfall to northern Western Australia, and hence reducing the chances of a strong northwesterly burst over the Top End. Furthermore, the potential development of an East Coast Low over southeast Queensland will bring heavy falls, winds and surf to eastern Australia and direct dry continental air towards the Top End, further reducing the chances of rainfall this week, despite the presence of the monsoon trough.
The MJO is expected to weaken and stall as it moves across the Maritime Continent. Despite being weak in strength, stalling could provide an extended opportunity for convective activity for most of northern Australia that could extend into early March. Should the current MJO pulse persist, northeast Australia, the Coral Sea and southwest Pacific islands can expect more active weather, including heavy rainfall and an increased risk of tropical cyclone formation during the first few weeks of March.
See the Bureau's MJO Monitoring for more information on location and tracking of the MJO.

Pacific remains ENSO-neutral

The tropical Pacific remains El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral. The latest 30 day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to 17 February is -7.1 and has been consistently around -7 to -8 for the last week. Climate models and current observations indicate this neutral state is likely to continue until at least the end of the northern wet season.
See the Bureau's ENSO Wrap-Up which includes a compilation of ENSO computer model predictions.
Next update expected by 26 February 2013
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
FOLKS THIS PART OF THE WARNING IS IMPORTANT..RIVERS ALREADY ARE CRESTING UP THERE........................................AVERAGE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY...

SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.........4 TO 7 INCHES
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.........4 TO 7 INCHES
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA......3 TO 5 INCHES
SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA.....3 TO 4 INCHES
FLORIDA BIG BEND..........2 TO 4 INCHES

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT LOCALLY HEAVIER STORM TOTALS DOUBLE
THESE AVERAGE AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
349 PM EST TUE FEB 19 2013 /249 PM CST TUE FEB 19 2013/

...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK...

RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION HAS ELEVATED RIVER LEVELS
ABOVE BASE FLOWS AND SATURATED SOILS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN
ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE IN RECESSION AT THIS TIME BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO BASE LEVELS BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF
RAINFALL BEGINS LATE THIS WEEK.

COMPUTER MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE SPECIFIC DETAILS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION
BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. BECAUSE
THESE STORM SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLOW MOVING AND PULL IN A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF GULF MOISTURE...THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLOOD
EVENT OF COMPARABLE MAGNITUDE OR GREATER THAN LAST WEEK IS
POSSIBLE INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE FIRST RAINFALL EVENT ON FRIDAY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AND
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO
4 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL
TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND INTO
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA SHOULD THIS SYSTEM MOVE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED.

THE SECOND RAINFALL EVENT IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN ON MONDAY AND
LAST THROUGH TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE MORE
UNCERTAIN BUT COULD EASILY MEET OR EXCEED PREVIOUS RAINFALL FROM
THE FIRST EVENT.

AVERAGE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TUESDAY...

SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.........4 TO 7 INCHES
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.........4 TO 7 INCHES
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA......3 TO 5 INCHES
SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA.....3 TO 4 INCHES
FLORIDA BIG BEND..........2 TO 4 INCHES

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT LOCALLY HEAVIER STORM TOTALS DOUBLE
THESE AVERAGE AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

WITH ALREADY SATURATED SOILS IN MANY LOCATIONS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF THIS MAGNITUDE COULD CREATE ANOTHER ROUND OF DANGEROUS FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA.

IMPACTS ON RIVERS...

SHOULD THESE ANTICIPATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OCCUR...SIGNIFICANT
RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WOULD BE LIKELY. CURRENTLY...THE
FOLLOWING BASINS ARE WELL ABOVE BASE FLOWS AND VULNERABLE TO
FLOODING...

CHOCTAWHATCHEE...INCREASED FLOODING POTENTIAL BETWEEN GENEVA AND
BRUCE INTO NEXT WEEK.

CHIPOLA...INCREASED FLOODING POTENTIAL AT MARIANNA AND ALTHA INTO
NEXT WEEK.

APALACHICOLA...MINOR FLOODING POTENTIAL AT BLOUNTSTOWN CONTINUING
INTO NEXT WEEK.

FLINT...MINOR FLOODING POTENTIAL AT ALBANY AND AN INCREASED FLOOD
POTENTIAL FROM NEWTON TO LAKE SEMINOLE.

WITHLACHOOCHEE...MINOR FLOODING POTENTIAL AT VALDOSTA.

OTHER VULNERABLE STREAMS INCLUDE THE MUCKALEE CREEK AND
KINCHAFOONEE NORTH OF ALBANY AS WELL AS THE SPRING CREEK IN MILLER
COUNTY AND THE LITTLE RIVER NEAR HAHIRA.

AS WITH ANY HYDROLOGIC RIVER PREDICTION...RISES AND EVENTUAL CRESTS
ARE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON WHERE RAINFALL OCCURS AND ENTERS THE
BASIN. FOR THIS REASON...THIS OUTLOOK MAY BE UPDATED FREQUENTLY IN
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR THE LATEST FLOOD AND RIVER INFORMATION...PLEASE GO TO
WEATHER.GOV/TALLAHASSEE AND CLICK ON THE RIVERS AND LAKES LINK.

$$

GODSEY
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NWS Norman ‏@NWSNorman
Very delicate balance between temps at the surface, as well as thousands of feet up, make the difference between rain and snow. #okwx
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Daytona 500 folks are concerned about the 2nd front coming this weekend about rain and wind..we'll see what happens
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GOT SOME SPRINKLES THIS MORNING................
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Quoting Neapolitan: Post #607
Refusing to acknowledge scientific reality because one's feeling got hurt by people who do acknowledge seems to me a particularly pathetic reason to do so, don't you think? Whatever happened to courage?


This is something I have tried to incorporate into my personal blog postings..
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760. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02
21:00 PM JST February 20 2013
======================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sulu Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 7.4N 120.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 7.5N 117.0E - 35 knots (CAT1/Tropical Storm) Sulu Sea
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759. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
CYCLONE TROPICAL HARUNA (09-20122013)
16:00 PM RET February 20 2013
=======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Haruna (970 hPa) located at 22.0S 40.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 4 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=======================
30 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
55 NM radius from the center, extending up to 65 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
===================
80 NM radius from the center, extending up to 90 NM in the northwestern and southeastern quadrants, and up to 110 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
110 NM radius from the center, extending up to 120 NM in the northwestern quadrant, up to 130 NM in the southeastern quadrant, and up to 150 NM in the northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D1.0/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 22.7S 41.4E - 80 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
24 HRS: 22.8S 42.2E - 85 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
48 HRS: 24.3S 44.6E - 35 knots (Depression sur Terre)
72 HRS: 26.8S 46.8E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

Additional Information
========================
Now an eye is well visible on classical satellite imagery. Haruna has reached the tropical cyclone stage. The radius of maximum winds is still very large. Near gale and gale force winds extensions have been calibrated with 0648z METOP ASCAT pass.

Within the next 12 hours, system is expected to move slowly south southeastward. Beyond, most of available numerical weather prediction models are in agreement for a generally eastward to east southeastward track under the steering influence of a broad mid level trough transiting south of 30.0S and a strengthening ridge in the northeast, but rather significant differences remain in chronology and cap variations. GFS forecast a most south track and consequently does to transit the system oversea near point southwest of Madagascar.

RSMC official forecast track is based on the middle of the ensemble tracks for this portion before the landfall.

Over high energetic potential seas (29-30C) and under the upper level ridge, system is expected to strengthen within the next 24-36 hours before landfall that is expected Friday.

Haruna presents an important threat for the southwestern coasts of Madagascar that should be to impinge within the next 2-3 days. Currently, coastal areas between Morombe and Cape Sainte-Marie is the potential landfall area. Inhabitants of this area should monitor the evolution of this system and stay tuned with information provided by their national weather services.

System is expected to return oversea Friday to Saturday night and to keep a east southeastward track without notable re-intensification due to environmental conditions becoming unfavorable (strong northwesterly wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures).
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Quoting tornadodude:
Snowing pretty decently at my apartment in Norman, Oklahoma















Free desktop streaming application by Ustream

It's sure is snowing there.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Snowing pretty decently at my apartment in Norman, Oklahoma















Free desktop streaming application by Ustream
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting tornadodude:


it is just after 7am, maybe an inch or two, although, it wasn't forecast to be snowing right now

Yeah. i could see the brightness of dawn appearing
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
00Z CMC-time for work..have a great day..

life is too short to continually argue with people who you will never meet face to face..





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Quoting AussieStorm:

Nice, What time is it there? How much snow are you expecting?


it is just after 7am, maybe an inch or two, although, it wasn't forecast to be snowing right now
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting tornadodude:
Trying to live stream the snow here, check it out

Live Stream

Nice, What time is it there? How much snow are you expecting?
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Trying to live stream the snow here, check it out

Live Stream
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting ncstorm:
Good Morning!!

Really hope Nascar is talked about a LOT today..

Damaging flooding on tap for the south and east coast..


Looks like the Far North West USA is going to get a fair bit of rain also.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
Quoting Astrometeor:


Truth is Fact. Fact is truth by definition. To say otherwise is to redefine words that have been used interchangeably for thousands of years.

The same word, amazing



"used interchangeably for thousands of years" -- Actually, that's not quite accurate. The idea that truth = fact and vice versa is mainly an Enlightenment idea; all those rational 18th century types wanted to brush away the cobwebs of the past and pin the world down to what was experimentally provable. Before that, for thousands of years, people accepted (usually without even thinking about it) that something could be "true", even if it never actually happened.

Example: the early Hebrews probably did not walk across the Red Sea (or Sea of Reeds, pick your translation) and eventually into the land of Israel in exactly the way described in the Torah, but SOMETHING happened in their history that caused them to believe that their God had delivered them from captivity and led them to a land of their own. It didn't matter exactly what the facts were because the truth, as they saw it, was that deliverance.

Example: Greek and Roman histories as written before, say, 500 CE, often include stories of miraculous births of "great men". We might say such stories are untrue because they could not possibly be factual, but that wasn't a meaningful distinction for Greek and Roman historians. Alexander was (in fact) a great general and conqueror, therefore he must have had a miraculous or somehow special birth because that's what great men had. So the miraculous birth story would be "true" even if it weren't "factual".

Sorry to be so long winded at such an early time of day, but I think this is a useful distinction for people to be aware of. Personally, I don't think the word "truth" belongs in a scientific discussion because it confuses things. We can say "X is a fact because it is experimentally provable" or "Y theory is correct (for the time being at least) because it best fits all the observable facts". The English language is difficult and slippery; I think words like "truth" and "believe" are best avoided in talking about matters of science, even it means we have to grope around for other words to explain ourselves.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Morning!!

Really hope Nascar is talked about a LOT today..

Damaging flooding on tap for the south and east coast..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14616
Correction, just looked outside, it is now snowing haha
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. Quiet weather up here today, major storm possible this weekend, question is rain or snow?

Cyclone Haruna looks pretty good:


TC Haruna finally got her core sorted.





Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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