Arctic sea ice volume now one-fifth its 1979 level
The stunning loss of Arctic sea ice extent in recent years is undeniable--satellite measurements have conclusively shown that half of the Arctic sea ice went missing in September 2012, compared to the average September during 1979 - 2000. But the extent of ice cover is not the best measure of how the fire raging in Earth's attic is affecting sea ice--the total volume of the ice is more important. But up until 2010, we didn't have the measurements needed to say how the total volume of ice in the Arctic might be changing. Scientists relied on the University of Washington PIOMAS model, which suggested that the loss of Arctic sea ice volume during September might be approaching 75% - 80%. The model results were widely criticized by climate change skeptics as being unrealistic. However, in April 2010, a new satellite called Cryostat-2 was launched, which can measure ice volume by beaming pulses of microwave energy off of the ice. With two years of data to Cryosat-2 data to analyze, the results of the PIOMAS model have now been confirmed by a study published on-line in February 2013 in Geophysical Research Letters. In a University of Washington news release, co-author Axel Schweiger said, "people had argued that 75 to 80 percent ice volume loss was too aggressive. What this new paper shows is that our ice loss estimates may have been too conservative, and that the recent decline is possibly more rapid." The U.K.'s Natural Environmental Research Council reported that the team of scientists found that from 2003 to 2012, the volume of Arctic sea ice declined 36% in the autumn and 9% in the winter. The measure of sea ice volume is a good indicator of how the Arctic's most stable, "multi-year" ice is fairing. As the multi-year ice declines, sea ice extent, the total area covered by sea ice, in an "Arctic death spiral". The new study shows that thick, multi-year ice has disappeared in areas north of Greenland, around the Canadian Archipelago, and to the northeast of Svalbard, Norway.
Figure 1. Arctic sea ice volume in thousands of cubic kilometers during the September minimum in 1979 compared to 2012, as estimated by the University of Washington PIOMAS model. Arctic seas ice volume has declined by more than a factor of five. Image credit; Andy Lee Robinson.
Figure 2. The Polar-5 aircraft, carrying the EM instrument that was used to validate Cryosat-2 sea ice thickness measurements, flying over the validation site. Image credit: R. Willatt.
Why care about Arctic sea ice loss?
If you remove an area of sea ice 43% the size of the contiguous U.S. from the ocean, like occurred in September 2012, it is guaranteed to have a significant impact on weather and climate. The extra heat and moisture added to the atmosphere as a result of all that open water over the pole may already be altering jet stream patterns in fall and winter, bringing an increase in extreme weather events. The record sea ice loss in 2012 also contributed to an unprecedented melting event in Greenland. Continued sea ice loss will further increase melting from Greenland, contributing to sea level rise and storm surge damages. Sea ice loss will also continue to crank up the thermostat over Arctic permafrost regions. This will potentially release a significant fraction of the vast amounts of carbon currently locked in the permafrost, further accelerating global warming.
Related Posts
Earth's attic is on fire: Arctic sea ice bottoms out at a new record low (September 2012)
Half of the polar ice cap is missing: Arctic sea ice hits a new record low. September 6, 2012 blog post
Wunderground's Sea Ice page
Arctic Death Spiral Bombshell: CryoSat-2 Confirms Sea Ice Volume Has Collapsed by Joe Romm at climateprogress.org.
Jeff Masters and Angela Fritz
Reader Comments
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WITHIN PERSISTENT BROADER SCALE UPPER TROUGHING...IN THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF A SPLIT FLOW EMERGING FROM THE PACIFIC...MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF STRONG SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS WILL DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE THIS COMING WEEKEND. AS IT DOES...IT APPEARS LIKELY TO
GRADUALLY COME IN PHASE WITH ANOTHER STRONG JET STREAK EMERGING FROM
THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC...THEN TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BEFORE LIFTING TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE
PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS APPEARS PROBABLE ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SIGNIFICANT SECONDARY WAVE WILL FORM
ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE ADVANCING/REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE VARIABILITY LINGERS AMONG THE MODELS
AND MODEL ENSEMBLES...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT PEAK SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY...AS A MOIST WARM
SECTOR OVERSPREADS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF STATES.
DEEP LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE AND SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE RISK FOR
DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES.
Ice
Hail
Goodnight folks. Catch ya's in the AM.
Stay safe Stay warm, take heed of all warnings.
"6-10 Day outlooks are issued daily between 3pm & 4pm Eastern Time. All forecasts issued on weekends are completely automated while all weekday outlooks are modified by the forecaster."
EVENT OF COMPARABLE MAGNITUDE OR GREATER THAN LAST WEEK IS
POSSIBLE INTO NEXT WEEK.
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA
SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. RIGHT NOW...THE PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO BE
MAINLY RAIN AT THE COAST AND A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND
FREEZING RAIN INLAND. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS FAR INTERIOR ZONES.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS EVENT THOUGH
AND VARIATIONS IN TRACK AND MAGNITUDE AS WELL AS TIMING WILL LEAD
TO CHANGES IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TYPE. MONITOR THE LATEST
NWS FORECASTS FOR UPDATES.
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CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A STRONG COASTAL STORM TO IMPACT
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS GIVEN THAT THE STORM IS STILL NEARLY 3 DAYS
IN THE FUTURE...SO EXACT PTYPES/SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
THE STORM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY WET SNOW TO THE
REGION. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE NORTH OF
THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE AND AWAY FROM THE COAST. HOWEVER...THE
THREAT FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND
POWER OUTAGES WHERE HEAVY WET SNOW OCCURS.
STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST MAY ALSO REQUIRE THE NEED FOR SOME
WIND HEADLINES.
FINALLY...COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE EASTERN MA COASTLINE WITH THE HIGHEST RISK DURING THE SUNDAY
MORNING HIGH TIDE.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
$$
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Looks like mainly S alabama and the panhandle of florida area....neither the GFS or ECMWF shows warmth into the mississippi valley, or much warm air over the region....not sure it'll be a big event... or what the SPC was talking about with the "moist warm air" overspreading the central and eastern gulf states.
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Gravitational Tractor
Illustration Credit & Copyright: Dan Durda (FIAAA, B612 Foundation)
Explanation: How would you change the course of an Earth-threatening asteroid? One possibility - a massive spacecraft that uses gravity as a towline - is illustrated in this artist's vision of a gravitational tractor in action. In the hypothetical scenario worked out in 2005 by Edward Lu and Stanley Love at NASA's Johnson Space Center, a 20 ton nuclear-electric spacecraft tows a 200 meter diameter asteroid by simply hovering near the asteroid. The spacecraft's ion drive thrusters are canted away from the surface. Their slight but steady thrust would gradually and predictably alter the course of the tug and asteroid, coupled by their mutual gravitational attraction. While it sounds like the stuff of science fiction, ion drives do power existing spacecraft. One advantage of using a gravitational tractor is that it would work regardless of the asteroid's structure. Given sufficient warning and time, a gravitational tractor could deflect the path of an asteroid known to be on a collision course enough to miss planet Earth.
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The Norwegian government also seems to want to showcase the city’s role in the opening of the Arctic region to increasing exploitation of resources. So much so, in fact, that it covered journalists’ travel expenses to attend the Arctic Frontiers conference.
I received an invitation to participate in late fall. I was torn. Journalists are supposed to maintain independence from sources. On the other hand, journalistic organizations have cut back so much that there is very little money available to pay for reporters to cover issues like the polar paradox.
Here was the dilemma that I and other journalists faced: Decline the invitation to have travel expenses paid, in which case the plans now being made to exploit resources in a warming Arctic would receive less attention than they deserved.
Or accept the invitation, be transparent about it, and do our best to air out the serious issues surrounding the polar paradox honestly and fairly — but leave ourselves open to criticism that we had lost our independence.
Welcome to another paradox of the emerging Anthropocene epoch: The folks who are eager to develop their Arctic oil reserves — which will add to global warming — were more than willing to help us cover the issue with travel support. There were no strings attached. (Other than my own loss of sleep while wrestling with the issue.)
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Plenty of moisture..
Water Vapor still showing Dry Slot in Texas..
http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/imageo/2013/02/ 21/scenes-from-the-anthropocene-polar-paradox-pt-2 /#.USYzlGt5mSM
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