U.S. gets unusually boring January weather; Thursday storm to ease Midwest drought

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:59 PM GMT on February 16, 2013

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After an unusually intense period of extreme weather during 2011 and 2012, the U.S. had its quietest month in nearly two years during January 2013, according to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI). The index tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought. The CEI during January 2013 was 14%, which was the lowest since the 12% value during February 2011. On average, about 20% of the contiguous U.S. experiences top-10% extreme weather as defined by the CEI. In 2012, just two months (October and February) had below-average CEI, so the weather of January 2013 was a welcome relief from our recent "new normal" of increased extreme weather. Of course, the month wasn't completely without notable weather--the tornado outbreak of January 29 - 30 generated 57 tornadoes, the second largest January tornado outbreak on record. January 2013 ranked as the 39th warmest January since 1895, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in their latest State of the Climate report. Utah and Nevada had a top-ten coldest January; no states had a top-ten warmest January. The January warmth was enough to make the 12-month period ending in January 2013 the warmest such period for the contiguous U.S., with every state being warmer than average. Sixteen states, across the central U.S. and Northeast, were record warm, and 27 additional states were top ten warm.


Figure 1. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for January 2013. Utah and Nevada had a top-ten coldest January, and no states had a top-ten warmest January. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Drought conditions improve slightly; wetter weather on the way to Midwest drought region
January 2013 had slightly above-average precipitation over the contiguous U.S., but there were notable wet and dry extremes. Louisiana had its wettest January on record, and Michigan, Virginia, Tennessee, and Mississippi all had top-ten wettest January weather. Florida, California, and Connecticut all had top-ten driest January weather. Heavy rains in Alabama and Georgia helped give that region no areas of exceptional drought for the first time since January 10, 2012. However, the core of the drought area over the Midwest U.S. shrank only slightly, with the area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing moderate-to-exceptional drought going from 61% on January 1 to 56% on February 12. The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook, issued February 7, calls for new areas of drought to develop over Florida, Texas, and California. However, some improvement in drought conditions is expected over about 40% of the drought region by April 30. The latest forecasts from the GFS and European (ECMWF) model show a modest shift in the jet stream pattern during the remainder of February, which may allow more moisture-bearing low pressure systems to pass through the main portion of the Midwest drought region. One storm for sure will arrive on Thursday, and many areas of the drought region should enjoy their their wettest day in months.


Figure 2. Drought conditions as of February 12, 2013, showed that 56% of the contiguous U.S. was in moderate or greater drought. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.


Figure 3. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Saturday, February 23 at 7 pm EST. Almost the entire nation is expected to get precipitation, including the core of the drought region. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Forward on Climate rally on February 17th in Washington, D.C. 
On Sunday, February 17, at noon EST, what is expected to be the largest climate rally in history will take place in Washington D.C. The rally is a project of the Sierra Club, 350.org, and the Hip Hop Caucus. The organizers mustered 15,000 protesters last year in D.C. to protest the potential approval of the Keystone XL Pipeline (meant to bring oil from Canada's tar sands into the U.S.) Protesting the potential approval of the pipeline will be a major focus of Sunday's rally, as well. More broadly, the rally aims to put pressure on President Obama to make good on the promises he made during Tuesday's State of the Union Address:

"But for the sake of our children and our future, we must do more to combat climate change. Yes, it’s true that no single event makes a trend. But the fact is, the 12 hottest years on record have all come in the last 15. Heat waves, droughts, wildfires, floods – all are now more frequent and more intense. We can choose to believe that Superstorm Sandy, and the most severe drought in decades, and the worst wildfires some states have ever seen were all just a freak coincidence. Or we can choose to believe in the overwhelming judgment of science – and act before it’s too late….But if Congress won’t act soon to protect future generations, I will."

It's about time that the President began talking about the reality of our changing climate, and the need to pursue aggressive actions to combat human-caused climate change. January 2013 was a welcome relief from the intense stretch of extreme weather our nation has suffered over the past two years. But the extreme weather of 2011 - 2012 is going to be more typical of our "new normal" of weather during the coming decades. Earth's climate is warming, and the overwhelming majority of climate scientists agree that human activity is the main cause. Extreme weather events are increasing in response to the warming climate. People can take cost-effective actions to limit the damage, and our lawmakers are going to come under increasing pressure from grass-roots efforts like the Forward on Climate rally to act to slow down climate change.

I'll have a new post on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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926. Stormchaser121
3:04 AM GMT on February 19, 2013
Member Since: September 2, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1146
925. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
2:52 AM GMT on February 19, 2013
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
924. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:44 AM GMT on February 19, 2013
nam-hires namer
20130219 00 UTC
sim_reflectivity
hr45
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
923. etxwx
2:37 AM GMT on February 19, 2013
Hmmm...got a pretty good line forming up there to our northwest.
Member Since: September 4, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1458
922. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2:36 AM GMT on February 19, 2013
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
9:00 AM JST February 19 2013
======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 6.0N 127.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 10 knots.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44864
921. Skyepony (Mod)
2:32 AM GMT on February 19, 2013
0401 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 W GENTRY 36.27N 94.50W
02/18/2013 U0 MPH BENTON AR EMERGENCY MNGR

A LARGE TREE LIMB FELL ONTO A ROOF THEN INTO A HOME
INJURING ONE OF THE OCCUPANTS.




0205 PM HAIL 3 W SHORT 35.57N 94.54W
02/18/2013 E1.00 INCH SEQUOYAH OK PUBLIC

QUARTER SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 161 Comments: 37448
920. Tropicsweatherpr
2:25 AM GMT on February 19, 2013
98W is upgraded by JTWC to Tropical Depression 02W.

WTPN31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02W (TWO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 5.2N 126.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 5.2N 126.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 6.0N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 7.1N 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 7.8N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 8.3N 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 7.7N 110.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 6.4N 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 5.4N 125.6E.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI 181651Z FEB 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
(WTPN21 PGTW 181700 )
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.
//

Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14070
919. TropicalAnalystwx13
2:02 AM GMT on February 19, 2013
Quoting tornadodude:


yup been looking at that too, I think there will be some discrete cells in front of the main line. Convective feeder bands that setup along the coast.



Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31549
918. MAweatherboy1
1:59 AM GMT on February 19, 2013
Thursday's definitely a day to watch. It's trending stronger for severe/tornado potential. I'd say a moderate risk day is very much a possibility.
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7638
917. JNCali
1:53 AM GMT on February 19, 2013
Only wind warnings so far.. nasty stuff from Memphis still too far out... back to the movie...

wuv...twu wuv..
Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1034
916. tornadodude
1:53 AM GMT on February 19, 2013
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
It might be time for me to consider changing my tune regarding Thursday's outbreak. The NAM is indicating a less stable/saturated atmosphere in addition to keeping extremely intense wind shear. Winds veer with height and are backed across central Louisiana during the afternoon hours.

We may see a few strong to significant tornadoes in that setup.





yup been looking at that too, I think there will be some discrete cells in front of the main line. Convective feeder bands that setup along the coast.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
915. ncstorm
1:51 AM GMT on February 19, 2013
Look like the CMC maybe onto something with all the heavy rain coming up in the upcoming weeks

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14611
914. PedleyCA
1:51 AM GMT on February 19, 2013
Todays temps 51.8 and 65.9 Now it will drop between 48-52 tomorrow, ouch.
Member Since: February 29, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 5693
913. TropicalAnalystwx13
1:49 AM GMT on February 19, 2013
It might be time for me to consider changing my tune regarding Thursday's outbreak. The NAM is indicating a less stable/saturated atmosphere in addition to keeping extremely intense wind shear. Winds veer with height and are backed across central Louisiana during the afternoon hours.

We may see a few strong to significant tornadoes in that setup.



Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31549
912. DoctorDave1
1:40 AM GMT on February 19, 2013
A measure of whether a person is mostly a scientist or ideologue is how long it takes them to incorporate new data into their theories.
Member Since: August 20, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 115
911. SFLWeatherman
1:38 AM GMT on February 19, 2013
6 to 10 days and 8 to 14 days!

8 to 14 days
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4416
910. SFLWeatherman
1:35 AM GMT on February 19, 2013
Is rainy season coming back to south florida this week!?!?!?
Saturday day
Chance of rain 40%.

Sunday
Chance of rain 50%.

Monday
Chance of rain 20%.

Monday Night
Chance of rain 20%.

Tuesday
Chance of rain 40%.

Wednesday
Chance of rain 40%.
Member Since: May 23, 2012 Posts: 0 Comments: 4416
909. wxchaser97
1:33 AM GMT on February 19, 2013
Memphis, TN is under a severe thunderstorm warning.

WUUS54 KMEG 190131
SVRMEG
ARC035-123-MSC033-TNC157-190200-
/O.NEW.KMEG.SV.W.0028.130219T0131Z-130219T0200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
731 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
EXTREME EASTERN ST. FRANCIS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
NORTHERN DESOTO COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
SHELBY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 800 PM CST

* AT 732 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SIMSBORO...OR 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF
HUGHES...AND MOVING EAST AT 70 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MARION...
WEST MEMPHIS...HORN LAKE...SOUTHAVEN...BARTLETT...GERMANTOWN...
MIDTOWN MEMPHIS...CORDOVA AND T O FULLER STATE PARK.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES AREAS NEAR BRANDYWINE LAKE AND WAPANOCCA
LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

&&

LAT...LON 3515 9040 3534 8972 3499 8973 3486 9041
3490 9041 3491 9042
TIME...MOT...LOC 0132Z 248DEG 62KT 3501 9032

$$

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7928
908. Bluestorm5
1:27 AM GMT on February 19, 2013
Quoting wxchaser97:

I probably should try to fix it.

Does it work now?
Yup
Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 7912
907. Chicklit
1:24 AM GMT on February 19, 2013
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11186
906. wxchaser97
1:24 AM GMT on February 19, 2013
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You should fix it.

I probably should try to fix it.

Does it work now?
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7928
905. TropicalAnalystwx13
1:22 AM GMT on February 19, 2013
Quoting wxchaser97:

It was working earlier...

You should fix it.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31549
904. wxchaser97
1:21 AM GMT on February 19, 2013
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Doesn't work.

It was working earlier...
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7928
903. Chicklit
1:20 AM GMT on February 19, 2013
It's never good when the roof is on the ground.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11186
902. TropicalAnalystwx13
1:19 AM GMT on February 19, 2013
Quoting wxchaser97:
Ouch, wind related damage. This is the house from the earlier report.

Doesn't work.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31549
901. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
1:11 AM GMT on February 19, 2013
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 09-20122013
4:00 AM RET February 19 2013
=======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (996 hPa) located at 20.5S 40.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving south at 6 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM in the northeastern quadrant, and up to 150 NM in the southeastern quadrant.

Locally Gale Force Winds up to 120 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 21.5S 41.0E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 22.2S 41.2E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 23.3S 41.9E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
72 HRS: 23.7S 43.8E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
=======================
Deep convective activity keeps on consolidating and progressively organizing on a curved band pattern in the western semi-circle thanks to meteosat7 and msg imagery. low level circulation center remains however difficult to precisely locate due to a lack of recent microwave imagery.

ASCAT 1819z swath covered very partially the circulation and do not allow to calibrate the winds near the center but confirms a broad 30 knots winds extension in the eastern semi-circle and that gale force 35 knots winds exist locally in the southeastern quadrant.

Within the next 24-36 hours, the low is expected to keep on drifting slowly southward toward a weak in the subtropical belt. Beyond, GFS and ECMWF numerical weather prediction models are now in agreement for a globally east southeastwards track under the steering influence of a broad mid level trough transiting south of 30.0s. ECMWF and GFS however purpose different chronologies. The mentioned RCMC schedule is close to ECMWF one, slower than GFS one and forecast a landfall over the southwestern Malagasy coastline near Tulear (Toliara) Thursday late or Friday early.

ECMWF ensemble system members are all globally oriented near this forecast track toward the southwestern Madagascar. Over high energetic potential seas (29-30C) and under the upper level ridge, system is expected to gradually strengthen until landfall.

The slow track expected by RSMC should however limit the maximum intensity due to negative oceanic retro-action by cooling water surface.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44864
900. wxchaser97
12:56 AM GMT on February 19, 2013
Ouch, wind related damage. This is the house from the earlier report.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7928
899. JNCali
12:52 AM GMT on February 19, 2013
After watching 'The Wrestler' with Mickey Rourke I have a hard time watching it on TV... Great avenue for college ball players who have a little acting savvy and don't want to be cops though... Nice and windy out here today nothing gusting over 30mph.. probably get some nice gusts when the cells get to us later.
Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1034
898. Tropicsweatherpr
12:48 AM GMT on February 19, 2013
TORNADO WARNING
LAC031-TXC419-190130-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0019.130219T0043Z-130219T0130Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
643 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN SHELBY COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CENTER...
SOUTHWESTERN DE SOTO PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...

* UNTIL 730 PM CST.

* AT 637 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR TIMPSON...
OR 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF CENTER...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
TENAHA...JOAQUIN AND LOGANSPORT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&

LAT...LON 3183 9444 3197 9443 3199 9388 3176 9388
TIME...MOT...LOC 0043Z 274DEG 27KT 3191 9433

$$

12
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14070
897. GeoffreyWPB
12:45 AM GMT on February 19, 2013
Quoting KoritheMan:


I grew up with Paul Wight instead.

I do know who Andre is, though. Believe it or not, I used to be a wrestling aficionado until about 10 years ago. Now I barely recognize any of the new wrestlers, lol.


Same here Kori. The main event at the next Wrestlemania is The Rock vs. John Cena. You would think the WWE would come up with something new.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11008
896. JNCali
12:45 AM GMT on February 19, 2013
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I saw Andre The Giant wrestle many times when they had the NWA. Always in Battle Royals...and of course he won all the time.
This movie would not be this movie without Andre.. just to the Pit of Despair scene now...
Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1034
895. wxchaser97
12:41 AM GMT on February 19, 2013
Rotation going just north of Timpson, Texas.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7928
894. KoritheMan
12:41 AM GMT on February 19, 2013
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I saw Andre The Giant wrestle many times when they had the NWA. Always in Battle Royals...and of course he won all the time.


I grew up with Paul Wight instead.

I do know who Andre is, though. Believe it or not, I used to be a wrestling aficionado until about 10 years ago. Now I barely recognize any of the new wrestlers, lol.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 558 Comments: 20002
893. GeoffreyWPB
12:38 AM GMT on February 19, 2013
Quoting JNCali:
Let 'em struggle.. they be overhead here in Mid TN in about 4 hours or so.. no need to be woken up by the tornado siren.... watching our favorite movie tonight....



I saw Andre The Giant wrestle many times when they had the NWA. Always in Battle Royals...and of course he won all the time.
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11008
892. Tropicsweatherpr
12:38 AM GMT on February 19, 2013
TORNADO WARNING
LAC017-031-TXC365-190115-
/O.NEW.KSHV.TO.W.0018.130219T0029Z-130219T0115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
629 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL PANOLA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHERN CADDO PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
NORTHWESTERN DE SOTO PARISH IN NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF MANSFIELD...

* UNTIL 715 PM CST.

* AT 628 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
DEBERRY...OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF CARTHAGE...MOVING EAST
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
STONEWALL...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&

LAT...LON 3224 9360 3200 9367 3218 9425 3231 9421
TIME...MOT...LOC 0029Z 284DEG 26KT 3223 9414

$$

12
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 14070
891. tornadodude
12:36 AM GMT on February 19, 2013
Quoting JNCali:
Let 'em struggle.. they be overhead here in Mid TN in about 4 hours or so.. no need to be woken up by the tornado siren.... watching our favorite movie tonight....



I haven't seen that movie in forever. Enjoy!
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
890. JNCali
12:33 AM GMT on February 19, 2013
Quoting tornadodude:


Yup, if there had been more moisture today, there could have been several tornadoes. Storms struggling to translate the rotation to the surface.
Let 'em struggle.. they be overhead here in Mid TN in about 4 hours or so.. no need to be woken up by the tornado siren.... watching our favorite movie tonight....

Member Since: September 9, 2010 Posts: 5 Comments: 1034
889. AussieStorm
12:33 AM GMT on February 19, 2013
Water-spout off Sydney's coast this morning.

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
888. KoritheMan
12:29 AM GMT on February 19, 2013
Quoting goalexgo:
Its sad,what became of The Captain. We had high hopes for him.


When the initial model runs had Isaac take a path reminiscent of Katrina, I was extremely irritated, lol. I'm too far to the west of New Orleans to be significantly affected by a Katrina-esque storm (I'm closer to the state capital). I was gonna ask a buddy to come chase with me to compensate for that prognosis, but I had to work that day until the store closed at 5 that afternoon, so even if he agreed, we wouldn't have been able to do that, lol.

At the time, the pre-Leslie wave (Kirk had not yet developed at high latitudes) was being hinted at in a couple of the GFS runs to be a major hurricane for the northern Gulf Coast. I kept thinking "If Isaac disappoints me, this next forecast of Captain Kirk hitting the Gulf had better come to pass!" Turns out I worried for nothing, as Isaac ended up giving me 70 to 75 kt gusts anyway, lol.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 558 Comments: 20002
887. wxchaser97
12:28 AM GMT on February 19, 2013
Lots of winter storm watches already for the storm on Thursday. I don't know if I will personally get a big snow, but it should help raise season totals some. Also should provide some drought relief to the plains.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7928
886. tornadodude
12:25 AM GMT on February 19, 2013
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We have seen a ton of rotating supercells today, but none of them have produced a tornado. This is attributed to a lack of instability.


Yup, if there had been more moisture today, there could have been several tornadoes. Storms struggling to translate the rotation to the surface.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
885. Jedkins01
12:24 AM GMT on February 19, 2013
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
We have seen a ton of rotating supercells today, but none of them have produced a tornado. This is attributed to a lack of instability.


Yeah, surface CAPE is pretty much non-existent in the target areas:

Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7305
884. TropicalAnalystwx13
12:21 AM GMT on February 19, 2013
We have seen a ton of rotating supercells today, but none of them have produced a tornado. This is attributed to a lack of instability.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31549
883. tornadodude
12:19 AM GMT on February 19, 2013
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 24 Comments: 8201
882. goalexgo
12:18 AM GMT on February 19, 2013
Quoting KoritheMan:
Just finished my report on Kirk (as usual, the best track et al will be added later), if anyone's interested in reading it.
Its sad,what became of The Captain. We had high hopes for him.
Member Since: June 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 127
881. wxchaser97
12:18 AM GMT on February 19, 2013
We have 4 active tornado warnings with 6 more severe thunderstorm warnings. There is still a wall cloud being reported near Benton.

Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7928
880. MAweatherboy1
12:17 AM GMT on February 19, 2013
Now four separate tornado warned storms.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
615 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL COLUMBIA COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...MCNEIL...MAGNOLIA...
CENTRAL LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 645 PM CST

* AT 614 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
SMITHLAND...OR 11 MILES SOUTH OF STAMPS...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
MACEDONIA...EMERSON AND VILLAGE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE
STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...
MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

&&

LAT...LON 3337 9301 3308 9301 3310 9358 3332 9358
TIME...MOT...LOC 0015Z 269DEG 43KT 3321 9342

$$

05
Member Since: February 11, 2012 Posts: 82 Comments: 7638
879. ncstorm
12:15 AM GMT on February 19, 2013
Longview, Texas weather cam
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 14611
878. AussieStorm
12:12 AM GMT on February 19, 2013
You guys are having Tornadoes and we are having Water spouts.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15932
877. Ameister12
12:10 AM GMT on February 19, 2013
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Very good looking newly tornado warned storm north of Shreveport, LA.

Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 4905
876. KoritheMan
12:08 AM GMT on February 19, 2013

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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