U.S. gets unusually boring January weather; Thursday storm to ease Midwest drought

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:59 PM GMT on February 16, 2013

Share this Blog
32
+

After an unusually intense period of extreme weather during 2011 and 2012, the U.S. had its quietest month in nearly two years during January 2013, according to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI). The index tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought. The CEI during January 2013 was 14%, which was the lowest since the 12% value during February 2011. On average, about 20% of the contiguous U.S. experiences top-10% extreme weather as defined by the CEI. In 2012, just two months (October and February) had below-average CEI, so the weather of January 2013 was a welcome relief from our recent "new normal" of increased extreme weather. Of course, the month wasn't completely without notable weather--the tornado outbreak of January 29 - 30 generated 57 tornadoes, the second largest January tornado outbreak on record. January 2013 ranked as the 39th warmest January since 1895, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in their latest State of the Climate report. Utah and Nevada had a top-ten coldest January; no states had a top-ten warmest January. The January warmth was enough to make the 12-month period ending in January 2013 the warmest such period for the contiguous U.S., with every state being warmer than average. Sixteen states, across the central U.S. and Northeast, were record warm, and 27 additional states were top ten warm.


Figure 1. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for January 2013. Utah and Nevada had a top-ten coldest January, and no states had a top-ten warmest January. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Drought conditions improve slightly; wetter weather on the way to Midwest drought region
January 2013 had slightly above-average precipitation over the contiguous U.S., but there were notable wet and dry extremes. Louisiana had its wettest January on record, and Michigan, Virginia, Tennessee, and Mississippi all had top-ten wettest January weather. Florida, California, and Connecticut all had top-ten driest January weather. Heavy rains in Alabama and Georgia helped give that region no areas of exceptional drought for the first time since January 10, 2012. However, the core of the drought area over the Midwest U.S. shrank only slightly, with the area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing moderate-to-exceptional drought going from 61% on January 1 to 56% on February 12. The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook, issued February 7, calls for new areas of drought to develop over Florida, Texas, and California. However, some improvement in drought conditions is expected over about 40% of the drought region by April 30. The latest forecasts from the GFS and European (ECMWF) model show a modest shift in the jet stream pattern during the remainder of February, which may allow more moisture-bearing low pressure systems to pass through the main portion of the Midwest drought region. One storm for sure will arrive on Thursday, and many areas of the drought region should enjoy their their wettest day in months.


Figure 2. Drought conditions as of February 12, 2013, showed that 56% of the contiguous U.S. was in moderate or greater drought. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.


Figure 3. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Saturday, February 23 at 7 pm EST. Almost the entire nation is expected to get precipitation, including the core of the drought region. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Forward on Climate rally on February 17th in Washington, D.C. 
On Sunday, February 17, at noon EST, what is expected to be the largest climate rally in history will take place in Washington D.C. The rally is a project of the Sierra Club, 350.org, and the Hip Hop Caucus. The organizers mustered 15,000 protesters last year in D.C. to protest the potential approval of the Keystone XL Pipeline (meant to bring oil from Canada's tar sands into the U.S.) Protesting the potential approval of the pipeline will be a major focus of Sunday's rally, as well. More broadly, the rally aims to put pressure on President Obama to make good on the promises he made during Tuesday's State of the Union Address:

"But for the sake of our children and our future, we must do more to combat climate change. Yes, it’s true that no single event makes a trend. But the fact is, the 12 hottest years on record have all come in the last 15. Heat waves, droughts, wildfires, floods – all are now more frequent and more intense. We can choose to believe that Superstorm Sandy, and the most severe drought in decades, and the worst wildfires some states have ever seen were all just a freak coincidence. Or we can choose to believe in the overwhelming judgment of science – and act before it’s too late….But if Congress won’t act soon to protect future generations, I will."

It's about time that the President began talking about the reality of our changing climate, and the need to pursue aggressive actions to combat human-caused climate change. January 2013 was a welcome relief from the intense stretch of extreme weather our nation has suffered over the past two years. But the extreme weather of 2011 - 2012 is going to be more typical of our "new normal" of weather during the coming decades. Earth's climate is warming, and the overwhelming majority of climate scientists agree that human activity is the main cause. Extreme weather events are increasing in response to the warming climate. People can take cost-effective actions to limit the damage, and our lawmakers are going to come under increasing pressure from grass-roots efforts like the Forward on Climate rally to act to slow down climate change.

I'll have a new post on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

Sign In or Register Sign In or Register

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 776 - 726

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19Blog Index

Quoting wxchaser97:
A pair of tornado warned storms in SE TX, near Livingston.


I like your handle's picture Chaser
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14875
Starting to get tornado warned storms now. If only I didn't have class...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Dr.Greg Forbes Torcon Index

Monday, Feb. 18

Scattered severe thunderstorms, mainly with damaging wind gusts, in east Texas, southeast Oklahoma, west and north Louisiana, central and south Arkansas. TOR:CON - 2 to 3 northeast TX, northwest LA, southeast AR; 2 for other areas on this list.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0166
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN OK/NORTHEAST TX TO WESTERN AR/NORTHWEST LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 181929Z - 182130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH
MID/LATE AFTERNOON...INITIALLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK/FAR WESTERN AR
AS WELL AS NORTHEAST TX. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SEVERE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH SOME TORNADO THREAT.

DISCUSSION...RELATIVELY LOW TOPPED TSTMS ARE STEADILY INCREASING
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK ALONG/IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO NORTHEAST TX WHERE CELLULAR CU IS READILY
EVIDENT PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARM SECTOR BOUNDARY
LAYER IS ONLY MODEST MOIST/UNSTABLE AT THIS TIME...BUT ADDITIONAL
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS PER CLOUD BREAKS
AND THE NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF MIDDLE 50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS
THE ARKLATEX. WSR-88D VWPS ARE INDICATIVE OF VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER
WIND PROFILES...ACCENTUATED BY 60+ KT MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ATOP SOUTHERLY NEAR-SURFACE WINDS. SOME INITIAL SUPERCELLS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO OR TWO...ALTHOUGH MERGING LINE SEGMENTS WITH SMALL BOWS WILL
EVOLVE AS THE PRIMARY MODE WITH ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

..GUYER/HART.. 02/18/2013


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 36109447 35249336 34239280 32259330 31639405 31459454
31279567 32329643 36109447
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A pair of tornado warned storms in SE TX, near Livingston.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7981
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 189 Comments: 59031
769. VR46L
GulfOfMexico vis_images goes

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I just stood down in Meteor Crater without ever having to be there...check off the bucket list
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 189 Comments: 59031
Considering that they almost missed the larger one (2012DA) not so sure I feel all warm and cozy about how good our asteroid/meteor watching is...

I am not worried about getting hit by one, even though something small went down off the coast of Miami Beach last night.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
Neat stuff. I have always wanted to see a impact site. My Father was at Meteor Crater in the 60,s. He said it is way more impressive in person.


Just looked at google maps and they have street view down in the middle of it from Oct. 2012
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The fire danger is increasing as the dry period of Febuary and March goes on.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
319 PM AST MON FEB 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FEW PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...WITH FEW AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME
TIME. HOWEVER..OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED. SOME
CLOUDINESS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WITH SOME PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME.
LATEST COMPUTER GUIDANCE INDICATED VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED. IN FACT...SJU-GFS COMPUTER MODEL INDICATED PW VALUES
REMAINING NEAR 1.0 INCHES THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
THEREFORE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. IN THE LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATE
TONIGHT AND TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA. EAST WINDS
20G30KT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 79 FEET TOMORROW...AS TRADE WINDS
INCREASES AND NORTH TO NORTHWEST SWELLS AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA.
REFER TO LATEST COASTAL WATER FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BUILDING HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE AREA WILL RESULT IN
STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS TOMORROW WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH EXPECTED. HUMIDITIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DROP
AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE EXTREMELY DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN
HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE
ANY SUPPRESSION EFFORTS HAZARDOUS AND DIFFICULT. OVERALL...HIGH TO
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DOMINATES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 83 72 83 / 20 20 40 40
STT 75 85 74 84 / 20 20 30 30


Boring weather is not good! I want april to come fast!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 189 Comments: 59031
Good Afternoon. Speaking of past and potential meteor impacts on the Earth, I am still digesting the recent one in Russia last week. Lot's of media and shows for the past several years on how both professional and amateur astronomers have the "watch" out on potential close ones that are monitored. Guess this recent one (about the size of a bus at reentry?) slipped through the radar.

How big does it need to be to get picked up?; or better...... no way we can get "full" space coverage at any given moment regardless of how many eyes we might have out there and a few will inevitably get through without prior warning.

This was a close call if it had descended lower towards the city before the big-boom/break-up.

No need to worry however; almost impossible chance of one impacting any given city/town.....However, have to wonder if they like Russia given the last Tunguska impact in 1908.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
Neat stuff. I have always wanted to see a impact site. My Father was at Meteor Crater in the 60,s. He said it is way more impressive in person.


There's some conflicting evidence for the origin of Lake Cheko, near where the Tunguska meteor (comet?) exploded in 1908, but the most recent analysis of sediment concludes that it formed around that time.

It's 708m X 364 m, and 50m deep. Looks like an impact site, to me.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
First tornado warning of the day in Texas.

WFUS54 KHGX 181931
TORHGX
TXC339-407-471-182000-
/O.NEW.KHGX.TO.W.0001.130218T1931Z-130218T2000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
131 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN SAN JACINTO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN WALKER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 200 PM CST

* AT 126 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR WILLIS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WILLIS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 3045 9517 3035 9544 3042 9552 3062 9535
TIME...MOT...LOC 1931Z 232DEG 7KT 3043 9545

$$
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7981
The fire danger is increasing as the dry period of Febuary and March goes on.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
319 PM AST MON FEB 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FEW PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...WITH FEW AFFECTING THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME
TIME. HOWEVER..OVERALL...DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED. SOME
CLOUDINESS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...WITH SOME PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME.
LATEST COMPUTER GUIDANCE INDICATED VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED. IN FACT...SJU-GFS COMPUTER MODEL INDICATED PW VALUES
REMAINING NEAR 1.0 INCHES THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
THEREFORE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. IN THE LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATE
TONIGHT AND TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA. EAST WINDS
20G30KT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL BUILD TO 79 FEET TOMORROW...AS TRADE WINDS
INCREASES AND NORTH TO NORTHWEST SWELLS AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA.
REFER TO LATEST COASTAL WATER FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...BUILDING HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE AREA WILL RESULT IN
STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS TOMORROW WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH EXPECTED. HUMIDITIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DROP
AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE EXTREMELY DRY FUELS WILL RESULT IN
HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE
ANY SUPPRESSION EFFORTS HAZARDOUS AND DIFFICULT. OVERALL...HIGH TO
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DOMINATES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 83 72 83 / 20 20 40 40
STT 75 85 74 84 / 20 20 30 30
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15602
This is up in western Oklahoma, severe warned for quarter size hail and 60mph winds.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7981
Quoting Neapolitan:
For what it's worth, there's also the related "Impact Database" (formerly the SEIS [Suspected Earth Impact Sites]), which contains detailed information on--as you might imagine--suspected impact sites, as well as geological features that have been rejected as extraterrestrial in origin (so they're easier to reject the next time they're reported as suspect).

(Also for what it's worth, in 2010 I reported a possible impact site in Kazakhstan--thanks, Google Earth--that's been reviewed but so far not rejected; it's still awaiting further study to move it into the either the "probable" or "rejected" category.)
Neat stuff. I have always wanted to see a impact site. My Father was at Meteor Crater in the 60,s. He said it is way more impressive in person.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
756. VR46L
Some Cells Moving Across the TX /LA border

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FunnelVortex:





Yes. Really.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
By this evening it could be designated TS
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14875
Quoting hydrus:
This is a data base for known impact craters on Earth for anyone interested. There are great pictures and info on each impact site...Link
For what it's worth, there's also the related "Impact Database" (formerly the SEIS [Suspected Earth Impact Sites]), which contains detailed information on--as you might imagine--suspected impact sites, as well as geological features that have been rejected as extraterrestrial in origin (so they're easier to reject the next time they're reported as suspect).

(Also for what it's worth, in 2010 I reported a possible impact site in Kazakhstan--thanks, Google Earth--that's been reviewed but so far not rejected; it's still awaiting further study to move it into the either the "probable" or "rejected" category.)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
752. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
21:00 PM JST February 18 2013
======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 6.0N 130.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

(TD Crising)
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 49863
751. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISING
11:00 PM PhST February 18 2013
==============================

Tropical Depression "CRISING" has maintained its strength as it threatens southeastern Mindanao

At 10:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Crising (1004 hPa) located at 6.2°N 139.7°E or 470 km east of General Santos City has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Signal Warnings
=================

Signal Warnings #1
------------------

Mindanao Region
================
1. Davao del Norte
2. Davao del Sur incl. Samal Is.
3. Davao Oriental
4. Compostela Valley
5. Southern part of Surigao del Sur
6. Agusan del Sur
7. Bukidnon
8. Lanao del Norte
9. Lanao del Sur
10. North Cotabato
11. Maguindanao
12. Sultan Kudarat
13. South Cotabato
14. Sarangani

Additional Information
======================
Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides. Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-15 mm per hour (moderateto heavy) within the 300 km diameter of the tropical depression.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the eastern seaboards of the country and over the northern seaboard of northern Luzon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 49863
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That is not a TS.




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
749. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 09-20122013
22:00 PM RET February 18 2013
=======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance (998 hPa) located at 19.9S 40.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving south at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 20.5S 40.8E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 21.0S 40.8E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 21.7S 41.2E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 21.3S 40.8E - 80 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)

Additional Information
=======================
Deep convective activity has consolidated over the recent past hours and has progressively organized. Low level circulation center remains however difficult to precisely locate and recent microwaves imagery (SSMIS F17 at 1522z and TRMM at 1540z) do not allow to depict an obvious low level center. Last SSMIS F18 at 1702z covers partially the system, showing only the eastern semi-circle but confirms that deep convective activity pattern is currently improving.

Within the next 24-36 hours, the low is expected to keep on drifting slowly southward toward a weak in the subtropical belt and is therefore expected to slowly intensify under the upper level ridge and over high energetic potential seas (29-30C).

Beyond, available numerical weather prediction models differ greatly. European models purpose an erratic track with a very slow movement generally southward. GFDN suggests a westward then northwestward track under the steering influence of the mid level ridge building over the austral Africa. GFS model purposes a southward then southeastward track that cruises oversea in the south of Madagascar and then evacuates in the extratropical area. RSMC official forecast track is close to ECMWF but with a very high uncertainty.

Consequently, forecast intensity that depends on the track, is also important. The slow and erratic track expected by RSMC should suggest a limitation of intensification due to negative oceanic retro-action by cooling water surface.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 56 Comments: 49863
It's not classified as a cyclone yet... we can tell it is unofficially
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14875
Quoting FunnelVortex:
INVEST 94S



Look at me in the eye ant tell me this is not a TS!

That is not a TS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FunnelVortex:


It is looking pretty healthy, I wonder if it will have an eye within the next 24-48 hours.


well, you went too far now..

I'll have my map up IF they ever upgrade this storm
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14875
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I know what you mean, trust me..


It is looking pretty healthy, I wonder if it will have an eye within the next 24-48 hours.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting barbamz:


Wow, Grothar, that really means something, with respect to your methusalem age, lol ... But I was startled by myself when I found this video some days ago.


Maybe I should have added ...in this century. :)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27914
Quoting FunnelVortex:


The area has been an obvious TS since this morning. There is even a surface circulation being picked up by bouys and ships!


I know what you mean, trust me.. (but...)
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14875
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


they are pretty slow for this... which ever office is in charge


The area has been an obvious TS since this morning. There is even a surface circulation being picked up by bouys and ships!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FunnelVortex:
INVEST 94S



Look at me in the eye ant tell me this is not a TS!


they are pretty slow for this... which ever office is in charge

This is what I found in the other site...
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14875
INVEST 94S



Look at me in the eye ant tell me this is not a TS!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
739. VR46L
Loop Embedded
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well, it's going to be a long trip with this one..

Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14875
737. VR46L
Looks like a nasty day tomorrow for the North Mid West and a rainy day again for the Northern Gulf States

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DocNDswamp:


Thanks Barbamz!

Quoting Whale, "Ooops, sorry... just catching my breath... darn, what a headache, thought it was thin ice..."
;)

Lol, Doc!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The GFS shows the CAPE values at thier highest at 9:00 PM tonight!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting barbamz:
"CHASING ICE" captures largest glacier calving ever filmed - OFFICIAL VIDEO

Source

Good evening! In case you are bored have a look at this incredible video (watch it full screen if you can!). And sorry if it has been already posted some weeks earlier.


Thanks Barbamz!

Quoting Whale, "Ooops, sorry... just catching my breath... darn, what a headache, thought it was thin ice..."
;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is a data base for known impact craters on Earth for anyone interested. There are great pictures and info on each impact site...Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Never saw anything like it.


Wow, Grothar, that really means something, with respect to your methusalem age, lol ... But I was startled by myself when I found this video some days ago.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

CAPE is on the increase as well.



The GFS doesn't show it winding down until midnight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
730. VR46L
Quoting PedleyCA:
Looking at my forecast and it is 52.7° here right now and that is more than the High tomorrow is forecast to be. Breaking out those extra blankets.

Monday
Partly Cloudy
65° F | 45° F

Tuesday
Chance of a Thunderstorm
49° F | 36° F

Wednesday
Chance of Rain
54° F | 34° F

Thursday
Chance of Rain
56° F | 34° F

Friday
Partly Cloudy
59° F | 43° F


Aw you poor thing !!

Got to a high of 50°today but it felt like 65° to me absolutely Beautiful and is to be similar all week!!

Amazing what a completely blue sky with both the sun and the moon visible all day can to do for my mood!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting barbamz:
"CHASING ICE" captures largest glacier calving ever filmed - OFFICIAL VIDEO

Source

Good evening! In case you are bored have a look at this incredible video (watch it full screen if you can!). And sorry if it has been already posted some weeks earlier.


Never saw anything like it.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 27914
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Looks like the cap has at least partially broken in SETX.



If they consolidate even more, we may even see a spinner or two!


CAPE is on the increase as well.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If anyone wants to answer the question about which 2013 Atlantic name(s) will be the big one(s) you can go to my blog.

Link
Member Since: April 29, 2009 Posts: 75 Comments: 15602
Looking at my forecast and it is 52.7° here right now and that is more than the High tomorrow is forecast to be. Breaking out those extra blankets.

Monday
Partly Cloudy
65° F | 45° F

Tuesday
Chance of a Thunderstorm
49° F | 36° F

Wednesday
Chance of Rain
54° F | 34° F

Thursday
Chance of Rain
56° F | 34° F

Friday
Partly Cloudy
59° F | 43° F
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 776 - 726

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

Local Weather

Scattered Clouds
75 °F
Scattered Clouds

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Dunham Lake Sunset
Carrot Nose in Danger
Deep Snow in Brookline, MA
Sunset at Fort DeSoto