U.S. gets unusually boring January weather; Thursday storm to ease Midwest drought

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:59 PM GMT on February 16, 2013

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After an unusually intense period of extreme weather during 2011 and 2012, the U.S. had its quietest month in nearly two years during January 2013, according to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI). The index tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought. The CEI during January 2013 was 14%, which was the lowest since the 12% value during February 2011. On average, about 20% of the contiguous U.S. experiences top-10% extreme weather as defined by the CEI. In 2012, just two months (October and February) had below-average CEI, so the weather of January 2013 was a welcome relief from our recent "new normal" of increased extreme weather. Of course, the month wasn't completely without notable weather--the tornado outbreak of January 29 - 30 generated 57 tornadoes, the second largest January tornado outbreak on record. January 2013 ranked as the 39th warmest January since 1895, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in their latest State of the Climate report. Utah and Nevada had a top-ten coldest January; no states had a top-ten warmest January. The January warmth was enough to make the 12-month period ending in January 2013 the warmest such period for the contiguous U.S., with every state being warmer than average. Sixteen states, across the central U.S. and Northeast, were record warm, and 27 additional states were top ten warm.


Figure 1. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for January 2013. Utah and Nevada had a top-ten coldest January, and no states had a top-ten warmest January. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Drought conditions improve slightly; wetter weather on the way to Midwest drought region
January 2013 had slightly above-average precipitation over the contiguous U.S., but there were notable wet and dry extremes. Louisiana had its wettest January on record, and Michigan, Virginia, Tennessee, and Mississippi all had top-ten wettest January weather. Florida, California, and Connecticut all had top-ten driest January weather. Heavy rains in Alabama and Georgia helped give that region no areas of exceptional drought for the first time since January 10, 2012. However, the core of the drought area over the Midwest U.S. shrank only slightly, with the area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing moderate-to-exceptional drought going from 61% on January 1 to 56% on February 12. The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook, issued February 7, calls for new areas of drought to develop over Florida, Texas, and California. However, some improvement in drought conditions is expected over about 40% of the drought region by April 30. The latest forecasts from the GFS and European (ECMWF) model show a modest shift in the jet stream pattern during the remainder of February, which may allow more moisture-bearing low pressure systems to pass through the main portion of the Midwest drought region. One storm for sure will arrive on Thursday, and many areas of the drought region should enjoy their their wettest day in months.


Figure 2. Drought conditions as of February 12, 2013, showed that 56% of the contiguous U.S. was in moderate or greater drought. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.


Figure 3. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Saturday, February 23 at 7 pm EST. Almost the entire nation is expected to get precipitation, including the core of the drought region. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Forward on Climate rally on February 17th in Washington, D.C. 
On Sunday, February 17, at noon EST, what is expected to be the largest climate rally in history will take place in Washington D.C. The rally is a project of the Sierra Club, 350.org, and the Hip Hop Caucus. The organizers mustered 15,000 protesters last year in D.C. to protest the potential approval of the Keystone XL Pipeline (meant to bring oil from Canada's tar sands into the U.S.) Protesting the potential approval of the pipeline will be a major focus of Sunday's rally, as well. More broadly, the rally aims to put pressure on President Obama to make good on the promises he made during Tuesday's State of the Union Address:

"But for the sake of our children and our future, we must do more to combat climate change. Yes, it’s true that no single event makes a trend. But the fact is, the 12 hottest years on record have all come in the last 15. Heat waves, droughts, wildfires, floods – all are now more frequent and more intense. We can choose to believe that Superstorm Sandy, and the most severe drought in decades, and the worst wildfires some states have ever seen were all just a freak coincidence. Or we can choose to believe in the overwhelming judgment of science – and act before it’s too late….But if Congress won’t act soon to protect future generations, I will."

It's about time that the President began talking about the reality of our changing climate, and the need to pursue aggressive actions to combat human-caused climate change. January 2013 was a welcome relief from the intense stretch of extreme weather our nation has suffered over the past two years. But the extreme weather of 2011 - 2012 is going to be more typical of our "new normal" of weather during the coming decades. Earth's climate is warming, and the overwhelming majority of climate scientists agree that human activity is the main cause. Extreme weather events are increasing in response to the warming climate. People can take cost-effective actions to limit the damage, and our lawmakers are going to come under increasing pressure from grass-roots efforts like the Forward on Climate rally to act to slow down climate change.

I'll have a new post on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting wxchaser97:

That's awesome! Me and my dad are planning to do storm chasing in the next couple years.

I believe there are still some spots opened for the Sculpted Supercell tour if you and your dad are at all interested.
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Very good looking newly tornado warned storm north of Shreveport, LA.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
559 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL NACOGDOCHES COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...
WESTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN PANOLA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN RUSK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 645 PM CST.

* AT 557 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 15 MILES
NORTHWEST OF GARRISON...OR 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HENDERSON...MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
TIMPSON AND TENAHA...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32282
Good threat of hail and maybe a tornado or two with twin tornado warned storms.

Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8031
Jim Cantore ‏@JimCantore
Spotters are reporting a persistent wall cloud on storm 7 mi NW of Mt Enterprise, TX in Rusk County. #txWX #TORNADO
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319 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW POSTED FOR A MAJOR SNOWSTORM...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN NEAR PUEBLO COLORADO
WEDNESDAY...AND TRACK ACROSS KANSAS THURSDAY. IT WILL BE LOCATED
OVER IOWA AT DAWN FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD PERIODS OF SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION...BEGINNING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW MAY
ALTERNATE WITH AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HEBRON TO RED
CLOUD TO BEAVER CITY. THEN STEADY SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD ALL AREAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...AND END FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS STORM WILL DISRUPT GROUND AND
AIR TRAVEL...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS...AS WELL AS BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW.
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
Quoting Ameister12:
I have some very exciting news! Me and my dad signed up for the Silver Lining Tornado Tour for the June 15-22 Sculpted Supercell tour in the Northern Plains and we finally got an e-mail back from the guys saying we're in! I'm so freaking excited! :-D

That's awesome! Me and my dad are planning to do storm chasing in the next couple years.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7950
Quoting Ameister12:
I have some very exciting news! Me and my dad signed up for Silver Lining Tornado Tour for the June 15-22 Sculpted Supercell tour in the Northern Plains and we finally got an e-mail back from the guys saying we're in! I'm so freaking excited! :-D


Awesome!!

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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
LoL wunderground:



LOL
Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
The storm to the south of the tornado warned cells just got a severe thunderstorm warning, but there is some weak rotation with this one too.

WUUS54 KSHV 182345
SVRSHV
TXC073-347-401-190030-
/O.NEW.KSHV.SV.W.0052.130218T2345Z-130219T0030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
545 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN NACOGDOCHES COUNTY IN EASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...RUSK...JACKSONVILLE...
SOUTHWESTERN RUSK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 630 PM CST

* AT 539 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO
GOLF BALL SIZE. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR RUSK...AND MOVING EAST
AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
PONTA...ALTO...MORRILL...SACUL...DOUGLASS AND TRAWICK...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE DETECTED SOME WEAK
ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO
MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO
A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 3149 9483 3153 9487 3151 9490 3159 9528
3161 9527 3162 9529 3167 9529 3173 9537
3175 9537 3198 9527 3183 9459 3146 9471
TIME...MOT...LOC 2345Z 278DEG 32KT 3175 9513

$$

05
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7950
I have some very exciting news! Me and my dad signed up for the Silver Lining Tornado Tour for the June 15-22 Sculpted Supercell tour in the Northern Plains and we finally got an e-mail back from the guys saying we're in! I'm so freaking excited! :-D
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Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I swear I've seen a baker's dozen of donut holes in '13:




We could start calling them mesocanes if they are long lived/sustained.

:)
Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7605
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Twin tornado warned storms in east TX:


New warning on the top storm:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
545 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
PANOLA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CARTHAGE...
NORTHEASTERN RUSK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 630 PM CST.

* AT 544 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR TATUM...OR
13 MILES NORTHWEST OF CARTHAGE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
BECKVILLE AND DEBERRY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&

LAT...LON 3222 9461 3237 9456 3228 9404 3199 9404
TIME...MOT...LOC 2345Z 290DEG 29KT 3227 9451

$$

12

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Twin tornado warned storms in east TX:

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I swear I've seen a baker's dozen of donut holes in '13:

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LoL wunderground:

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It's the Gulf Stream that keeps European winters mild, right?
New simulations point toward a different explanation.
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2238 UNK 1 ENE BISMARCK HOT SPRING AR 3432 9315 TREES AND POWER LINES ARE DOWN ALONG HWY 84 AT MORGAN ROAD. UPDATE ... A HOUSE WAS DESTROYED AND SEVERAL CARS WERE FLIPPED. (LZK)
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7950
Happy President's Day!

148 years later, Mississippi ratifies amendment banning slavery
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Beautiful storm going through the Bering Sea right now, easily producing hurricane force winds:



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I leave for 15 minutes to go to the cleaners and I come back to find this cell.
Member Since: March 16, 2012 Posts: 127 Comments: 7950


MesoWest Jurupa Valley CA US SGXWFO, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 1:49 PM PST on February 18, 2013
Clear
61 °F
Clear
Humidity: 56%
Dew Point: 45 °F
Wind: 3 mph from the WSW
Wind Gust: 8.0 mph
Pressure: 29.93 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 3 out of 16
Pollen: 8.10 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 794 ft

High today is supposed to be 65(WU) and I have 64.4 Close enough.
About to get ugly within the overnight hours. Still Sunny, going to say goodbye to that.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
513 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN GREGG COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF KILGORE...
NORTHWESTERN PANOLA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHERN RUSK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 545 PM CST

* AT 509 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR KILGORE...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
TATUM...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE
STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...
MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

&&

LAT...LON 3244 9487 3238 9446 3236 9443 3215 9448
3227 9493
TIME...MOT...LOC 2313Z 282DEG 21KT 3232 9478

$$

05
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Miami NWS Disco...

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET FOR THE WEEK. WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH EAST, THE GENERAL FLOW WILL
VARY BETWEEN EASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
SOUTH FLORIDA MID WEEK, BUT MODELS ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING THAT
IS WILL NOT MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH, THUS KEEPING SOUTH FLORIDA IN
A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE THIS WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
TOMORROW, THEN SLOWLY INCREASING EACH DAY, WITH HIGHS FRIDAY IN
THE MID 80S IN THE EAST AND NEAR 90 IN THE INTERIOR WESTERN ZONES.
LOWS WILL ALSO INCREASE EACH DAY, WITH NO MORE CHANCE OF FROST OR
FREEZE THIS WEEK. OTHERWISE, QUIET WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
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Are there any TV stations in the tornado areas streaming live?
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This cell is likely about to go tornadic.



Slice:

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The air mass ahead of the dry line is still pretty darn dry as well lol, low level moisture is a bit more decent down near SE TX but that's about it. My experience though is that dry air is helpful with severe weather, at least with frontal systems.

During the summer it's different because hot air masses hold a lot more water at lower RH values, thus you can have a very moist air mass with less RH thus its "easier" for severe weather. With severe weather, and even lightning, it's about RH values at different parts of the column.

Member Since: August 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 7605
Jim Cantore‏@JimCantore

1 ENE Bismarck [Hot Spring Co, AR] law enforcement reports TSTM WND DMG -- trees and power lines are down along hwy 84 at morgan road.
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Severe warned storms about to move through Little Rock, probably some damaging winds and small hail with those.
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the GFS has been real consistent with light snow for parts for NC later this week


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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
448 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN HEMPSTEAD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN NEVADA COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 515 PM CST

* AT 445 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR BLEVINS...
OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NASHVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
BOUGHTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WARNING MEANS THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE
STORM. A TORNADO MAY ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...
MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

&&
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32282
WEEK'S OUTLOOK
___________________________

I know it's a map full of stuff but let me break it down for you...

first, snow comes for the Sierra Nevada, rain for all low lands.
The storm then moves further inland reaching the Rocky Mountains, Colorado, New Mexico and Wyoming with heavy snows there on Tuesday. By Wednesday there could be a major winter storm impacting the Central Plains/Midwest with Ice for the Ohio River Valley with severe weather developing by Thursday and lots of rain for the south, expect more snow in the Appalachians and a rain/snow mix for coastal Northeast with snow on the interior on Friday


Member Since: April 23, 2011 Posts: 104 Comments: 14873
SEVERE STORM WARNING Sw AR 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LOFTON TO NEAR AMITY. MOVING E AT 50 MPH.

SEVERE STORM WARNING Se TX LOCATED NEAR TYLER...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.
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You can see the cold front/dryline just to the west of the storms.

The green circled observations show a more humid pre-frontal air mass, the brown circled observations show the warm dry air behind the dryline.

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UNTIL 500 PM CST

* AT 427 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES WEST OF MOUNTAIN PINE
TO 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LOFTON TO NEAR AMITY...AND MOVING EAST AT
50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PINEY... LAKE OUACHITA... LAKE HAMILTON...
HOT SPRINGS... ROCKWELL... MOUNTAIN PINE...
LOFTON... LAKE OUACHITA SP... LAKE CATHERINE...
HOT SPRINGS NATL PARK...
HOT SPRINGS MEM FLD... DEGRAY LAKE SP...
AMITY... WILSON SPRINGS... SUNSHINE...
ROYAL... RED OAK... POINT CEDAR...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
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Todd Yakoubian ‏@KATV_Weather

Local Storm Report by NWS SHV: 7 N Fouke [Miller Co, AR] law enforcement reports HAIL of golf ball size (E1.75 INCH) #ARWX
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Johnny Kelly ‏@stormchaser4850

Update: Homes reported damaged with trees down 4 miles E of Shepherd, TX in San Jacinto Co., TX (2:30 pm CST)
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Quoting Bluestorm5:
I honestly don't think the southern cell is that strong although it's getting stronger every frame.



It seems to be weakening now. Also, the front is likely going to catch up to it soon, leading to a more linear storm mode.
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I honestly don't think the southern cell is that strong although it's getting stronger every frame.

Member Since: August 1, 2011 Posts: 28 Comments: 8031
822 Tazmanian: We now have winter storm Q

Serendipity strikes again. Was wondering how I'd get the excuse to share
"...for the Pepsi Challenge, they removed the logos. At first, the researchers thought they should put some sort of label on the glasses. So, they went with M and Q. People said they liked Pepsi, labeled M, better than Coke, labeled Q.
Irritated by this, Coca-Cola did their own study and put Coke in both glasses. Again, M won the contest. It turned out it wasn't the soda; people just liked the letter M better than the letter Q."
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Jim Cantore‏@JimCantore

Truckers/ High profile vehicles: Line of storms w/very gusty winds approaching I-30 corridor in AR from Little Rock to Texarkana. Next 30min
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Newly improved CMC-a lot of back to back systems with heavy RAIN

12Z








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830. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Quoting Tazmanian:
we now have winter storm Q



wonder why the Dakotas/Minnesota/Winconsin system is not named, it is showing a low pressure of 998-1000 MB..
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0168
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/CENTRAL AR AND NORTHEAST TX/NORTHWEST LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 36...

VALID 182152Z - 182315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 36
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE TSTM WATCH 36 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z. SEVERE HAIL
REMAINS A CONCERN...ALONG WITH WHAT MAY BE AN INCREASING DAMAGING
WIND THREAT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX VICINITY.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS CONTINUE TO MERGE/SPREAD EASTWARD WITHIN A
NNE-SSW ORIENTED NEAR-COLD FRONTAL CORRIDOR ACROSS WESTERN AR INTO
FAR NORTHEAST TX AS OF 20Z...WITH THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
OVERTAKING A PRE-FRONTAL DRYLINE ACROSS NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL TX.
OTHER RELATIVELY MORE DISCRETE TSTMS/SUPERCELLS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN
THE MODESTLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR /500 J PER KG MLCAPE OR
LESS/...MAINLY WITHIN THE NARROW MOIST AXIS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD A FAR
SOUTHWEST AR SURFACE LOW. THESE TSTMS ACROSS NORTHERN LA/SOUTHERN AR
COULD POSE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO ASIDE FROM SEVERE HAIL OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM SHREVEPORT
INDICATIVE OF 250-300 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH. OTHERWISE...CONGEALING
STORMS WILL BE INCREASINGLY COMMON NEAR THE COLD FRONT...WITH BOUTS
OF DAMAGING WINDS POTENTIALLY BECOMING MORE A CONCERN THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.

..GUYER.. 02/18/2013


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 35539353 35399258 33229248 32209245 32229547 34409403
35539353
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828. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISING
5:00 AM PhST February 19 2013
==============================

Tropical Depression "CRISING" has accelerated as it continues to threaten Mindanao

At 4:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Crising (1004 hPa) located at 6.1°N 128.2°E or 310 km east of General Santos City has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 11 knots.

Signal Warnings
=================

Signal Warnings #1
------------------

Mindanao Region
================
1. Davao del Norte
2. Davao del Sur
3. Samal Island
4. Davao Oriental
5. Compostela Valley
6. southern part of Surigao del Sur
7. Agusan del Sur
8. Bukidnon
9. Lanao del Norte
10. Lanao del Sur
11. North Cotabato
12. Maguindanao
13. Sultan Kudarat
14. South Cotabato
15. Sarangani
16. Misamis Occidental
17. Zamboanga del Norte
18. Zamboanga del Sur
19. Zamboanga Sibugay

Additional Information
======================
Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-15 mm per hour (moderate to heavy) within the 300 km diameter of the tropical depression.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the northern and eastern seaboards of the country.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.
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Quoting wxchaser97:

Southern cell just got a tornado warning.


Figured it would, it looked like it was intensifying
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These are some of the earliest watches I've ever seen issued. The storm is still off the coast of the western USA.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32282

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.